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32. A Reliable Global Cyber Power: Cyberspace and Germany’s National Security Strategy
- Author:
- Valentin Weber
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Germany’s major allies have declared their roles in shaping cyberspace. The United States sees itself as a democratic, values-driven cyber power ready to impose substantial costs on adversaries engaged in nefarious conduct. The United Kingdom strives to be a responsible cyber power that eschews reckless behavior. France aims to operate as a stabilizing power that counters a destructive Russia and other malicious actors. But what kind of cyber power is Germany to be? As it draws up its first national security strategy, the country can rectify its lack of vision and narrative for its domestic and international cyberspace efforts. This policy brief proposes that Germany espouse a sober focus on reliability that links its cyberspace strategy to those of its allies, thereby providing a vital anchor for Western cybersecurity. To do this, Germany should:
- Topic:
- National Security, Science and Technology, Strategic Stability, and Cyberspace
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany
33. Don’t Get Caught in the Middle: A Geo-Economic Strategy for Germany to Survive US-Chinese Rivalry
- Author:
- Markus Jaeger
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The economic fallout from the war in Ukraine has been very significant. The consequences of a war in East Asia involving the United States and China would be much worse. And even if a Sino-US military confrontation can be avoided, geo-economic conflict between the two powers is going to intensify. Washington will put increasing pressure on Germany and Europe to align their policies with Washington’s geo-economic strategy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Geoeconomics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, Germany, North America, and United States of America
34. Gas and Energy Security in Germany and Central and Eastern Europe
- Author:
- Guntram Wolff and Alexandra Gritz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s weaponization of gas supplies caused a shock to the energy security of Central and Eastern Europe. Countries responded by increasing alternative gas supplies and LNG import capacity. Gas flows shifted from the east-west axis to west-east and north-south axes. In the short term, the usage of coal is rising; in the longer term, renewable and nuclear energy. Mitigating the effects of this shock requires the EU to prioritize policies that foster the integrity and security of its energy market.
- Topic:
- Security, Natural Resources, European Union, Gas, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Germany, and Central Europe
35. Does Immigration Grow the Pie? Asymmetric Evidence from Germany
- Author:
- Eugenia Vella
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- This Policy brief by Eugenia Vella, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, elected to the position of Assistant Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business; Research Fellow, ELIAMEP and Fundació MOVE provides empirical evidence suggesting that net migration flows can have substantial demand effects. Using monthly administrative data (2006-2019) for Germany, we show that migration stimulates job openings, wages, house prices, investment, consumption, net exports, and output. Unemployment falls for natives (job-creation effect), driving a decline in total unemployment, while rising for foreigners (job-competition effect). The geographic origin of migrants and the education level of residents matter crucially for the effects. Overall, the evidence implies that the policy debate should focus on redistributive strategies between natives and foreigners.
- Topic:
- Migration, Immigration, Employment, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
36. Germany’s New Government Coalition: A Red, Yellow or Green Light for German-Turkish Relations?
- Author:
- Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- After the national elections of 26 September 2021, the SPD, Greens and FDP formed for the first time in German history a three-party coalition. The new chancellor is Olaf Scholz (SPD), while the minister of foreign affairs is a woman, Annalena Baerbock (Greens), for the first time. The coalition agreement mentions Turkey only as an “important neighbor of the EU” and speaks of “worrying domestic political developments and foreign policy tensions.” During the election campaign, the Greens and Baerbock spoke of a value-based foreign policy guided by human rights, ecological issues and democratic standards would be guiding principles. Baerbock has been critical of Turkey: after it left the Istanbul Convention, for instance, or over the refugee deal and “violations of human rights and the rule of law.” The Greens remain the only party in the Bundestag, which still views the revival of Turkey’s EU accession process as a possibility. The Greens, and the FDP in particular, want to intensify exchanges between the two countries with civil society and youth exchange programs. The new Bundestag is the most diverse ever, with more German-Turks in parliament than ever before (18/19), and a German-Turk holding a ministerial position (agriculture) for the first time. Greens and FDP voters expect a harsher stance on countries like Turkey: a pragmatic approach à la Merkel would disappoint them. The future of bilateral relations will also depend on how cooperative or confrontational a position Turkey adopts. A best-case scenario is also possible: the next elections put a reformist government in power in Turkey, which will then be supported by the new German administration.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Germany
37. Europe’s invisible divides: How covid-19 is polarising European politics
- Author:
- Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The lived experience of the covid-19 pandemic has split Europe just as the euro and refugee crises did, with the south and the east feeling much more badly affected than the north and the west. Some people were affected directly by illness, some only experienced economic consequences, while others feel untouched by covid-19. The economic victims are more likely than others to say that restrictions have been too severe, and they tend to be more sceptical about their governments’ intentions behind lockdowns. Europeans are divided over what they believe to be governments’ motivations behind restrictions: the Trustful have faith in governments; the Suspicious believe rulers want to cover up failings; the Accusers think governments are trying to increase their control over people. Splits are appearing between those who believe that, in the context of the pandemic, the biggest threat to their freedom comes from governments, on the one hand, and those who fear the behaviour of their fellow citizens, on the other. There is a major generational divide, with the young more likely than the old to blame governments for the ongoing impact; the young also feel more badly affected. Poland, Germany, and France could each be emerging as archetypes for post-pandemic politics.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Refugees, Crisis Management, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Poland, and Germany
38. Beyond Merkelism: What Europeans expect of post-election Germany
- Author:
- Piotr Buras and Jana Puglierin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- A new poll conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations shows that EU citizens view Germany as a trustworthy, pro-European power. Angela Merkel’s approach of searching for compromises between competing interests is a major source of Berlin’s positive image. Pluralities in all countries polled would support her in a hypothetical election for president of Europe if her opponent was Emmanuel Macron. Merkel’s rule has reduced neighbours’ fear of German dominance. Most Europeans do not believe a German heading the European Commission is a bad thing. And significant numbers trust Berlin to lead the EU, especially on financial and economic issues and democracy and the rule of law. Paradoxically, to fulfil many Europeans’ expectations, Berlin will need to revise the principles of Merkelism that created this trust. Germany will need to do this to successfully lead the EU in tackling the two greatest threats facing it: a weakening of the rule of law inside the EU, and a failure on the part of Europe to defend its interests in the world.
- Topic:
- Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Polls
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
39. Crisis of confidence: How Europeans see their place in the world
- Author:
- Susi Dennison and Jana Puglierin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Public faith in EU institutions has declined due to their handling of the covid-19 pandemic and vaccine procurement. This effect is strongest in Germany: disappointment with the EU has now spread from the periphery to the centre. However, the European project is not doomed, as citizens still believe in the need for greater cooperation – particularly in strengthening the EU as a global actor. Europeans see the world as being made up of strategic partnerships, with no automatic alliances. They are sceptical about the restoration of America’s leadership and feel that there can be no return to the West of the cold war era. They acknowledge the centrality of the EU in their future, but their sense of shared vulnerability will not be enough to move the European project forward. The EU should demonstrate its capacity to deliver.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
40. How to prevent Germany from becoming Eurosceptic
- Author:
- Mark Leonard and Jana Puglierin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Fifteen months into the covid-19 pandemic, there has been a major collapse in Germans’ trust in the European Union. German politicians need to react to the growing pressure on the consensus in German society for an outward-looking and pro-EU Germany. At the same time, Germany’s traditional ways of thinking are increasingly unsuited to addressing new foreign policy challenges. To find a viable model for its economic, security, and EU policy, the next federal government needs to address some of the unsettling issues that its predecessors have often ignored. The key to building support for an outward-looking and pro-EU Germany lies, paradoxically, in anchoring German policy in a narrower focus on the national interest. To engage more confidently with a world that is changing, outward-looking Germans need to shape a progressive new national identity before it is defined by the forces of isolation and exclusion. If Germany does not shift its course, it will end up with an inadequate foreign policy that lacks public support. Policymakers need to better explain how Berlin uses the EU to increase its influence and thereby enhance the wealth, prosperity, and security of the German public.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany