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52. The Russian Reality Check on Turkey's Gas Hub Hopes
- Author:
- Morena Skalamera
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- On Nov 24, 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet after it veered into its airspace for 17 seconds. On December 13, a Russian ship fired warning shots at a Turkish vessel in the Aegean Sea. Bilateral tensions, with overt military dimensions, have seemed to quickly replace the goodwill that characterized relations only a year ago. Over the past few weeks, experts and observers have debated whether this incident will jeopardize deep Turkish-Russian energy cooperation—and whether newfound tensions between Moscow and Ankara will thwart Turkey’s ambition to transform itself into an energy hub. A closer look suggests grounds for both optimism and pessimism. Given the deep interests of both parties in continuing energy cooperation, and the mutual nature of the dependency, tensions over Syria are unlikely to adversely impact energy cooperation in a fundamental way. Turkey, however, is unlikely to realize its vision of an energy hub—not because of Russia, but because of a combination of domestic and other geopolitical factors.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Geopolitics, Gas, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Turkey
53. In Search of a New Balance between Agricultural Trade and Development in the Euro-Mediterranean
- Author:
- Marko Lovec
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The recent food security crisis has shed light on the importance of agricultural development in the South Mediterranean countries. An ‘urban bias’ and ‘trade liberalisation’ policies have resulted in growing dependence on imports, narrow specialisations and unsustainable production practices. The Euro-Mediterranean integration process has put trade liberalisation in the centre of attention, while the progress in agriculture has been limited. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the challenges faced by agro-food systems in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries, with specific attention to the role of the Euro-Mediterranean integration and the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. The paper also reviews relevant economic and environmental data in selected South and East Mediterranean countries.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Europe
54. EU-India Strategic Partnership Needs a Reality Check
- Author:
- Patryk Kuglel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The EU-India Strategic Partnership launched in 2004 has made only modest achievements and needs a thorough rethink. Both sides must reset cooperation and base it on a more realistic footing centred on common interests, such as economic cooperation, global governance, development cooperation, and defence. The resumption of free trade negotiations, the organisation of a long overdue bilateral summit, and more frank dialogue on contentious issues is necessary in order to utilise the partnership’s potential. Poland may use this strategic drift to revitalise bilateral cooperation and play a more active role in reviving EU-India dialogue.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and India
55. Russia's Economy under Putin: From Crony Capitalism to State Capitalism
- Author:
- Simeon Djankov
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In the 15 years of President Vladimir Putin's rule, state control over economic activity in Russia has increased and is greater today than in the immediate postcommunist era. The concentration of political and economic power in Putin's hands has led to an increasingly assertive foreign policy, using energy as a diplomatic tool, while plentiful revenues from extractive industries have obfuscated the need for structural reforms at home. The West's 2014 sanctions on Russia have brought about economic stagnation, and with few visible means of growth, the economy is likely to continue to struggle. Watching Europe struggle with its own growth, in part because of deficiencies in its economic model, Russia will not be convinced to divert from state capitalism without evidence of a different, successful economic model. Changing course can only be pursued in the presence of political competition; the current political landscape does not allow for such competition to flourish
- Topic:
- Economics and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
56. Toward a European Migration and Mobility Union
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- After surviving its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression and the near collapse of its common currency, Europe is now engulfed by hundreds of thousands of desperate migrants and refugees from the Middle East and Africa. It needs new and permanent migration institutions and resources not only to accommodate the influx of refugees but also to set up a new border control system throughout the region. These demands pose a challenge for European policymaking as serious as the euro crisis of the last five years. Kirkegaard proposes a migration and mobility union, to be implemented gradually, with the goal of comprehensively reforming European migration policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Politics, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Europe
57. Stability Bonds for the Euro Area
- Author:
- Angel Ubide
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The rules and buffers created in the last few years to enable the euro area to withstand another sudden stop of credit and market-driven panic in one or more of its member states are welcome steps, but they are widely recognized as inadequate. Ubide proposes creating a system of stability bonds in the euro area, to be issued by a new European Debt Agency, to partially finance the debt of euro area countries—up to 25 percent of GDP. These stability bonds should be initially backed by tax revenues transferred from national treasuries, but ultimately by the creation of euro area–wide tax revenues, and used to fund the operations of national governments. They could also be used for euro area–wide fiscal stimulus, to complement the fiscal policies of member states. Such bonds would strengthen the euro area economic infrastructure, creating incentives for countries to reduce their deficits but not forcing them to do so when such actions would drive their economies further into a downturn. The bonds would permit the euro area to adopt a more flexible or expansionary fiscal policy during recessions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and GDP
- Political Geography:
- Europe
58. Germany and the Future of the Eurozone
- Author:
- Sebastian Plóciennik
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Although the euro has survived the most severe phase of the current crisis, its future is still uncertain. The fate of the common currency will depend not only on the condition of the European economy, but also the priorities of its biggest player—Germany. So far that country has been strong enough to enforce its own vision of integration based on neoliberal reforms and austerity measures. Since the side effects of this prescription have been rising costs and risks, Berlin's new government will consider a range of different solutions, including in extremis a controlled and partial break-up of the Eurozone. For Poland, this volatility creates a challenging environment with risks, but also creates chances for Warsaw to increase its influence over the evolution of EU integration in this field.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
59. EU-Russia: overcoming stagnation
- Author:
- Nicu Popescu
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- For the best part of the last two decades, EU-Russia summits have alternated between being upbeat events where new grand integration initiatives were launched – the creation of four common spaces in 2005, the partnership for modernisation in 2010 – and rather unfriendly encounters where success was seemingly measured on how impolite the partners could be to one another.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
60. Is the European Central Bank Failing Its Price Stability Mandate?
- Author:
- Ángel Ubide
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Inflation in the euro area is too low, just 0.9 percent year-on-year in December 2013, and inflation expectations, measured from inflation derivative contracts, have shifted lower, indicating that markets expect some small probability of deflation in 2014 and average inflation over the next five years in the 1.25 to 1.5 percent range. The European Central Bank (ECB), however, seems to be content with this outlook. Its current projections show a very slow economic recovery and inflation at just 1.3 percent in two years' time. Yet the ECB describes the risks to inflation as balanced. This puzzling assessment might be due to the fact that the ECB's definition of price stability is less precise than that employed by other central banks, and some ECB members may interpret the definition as setting a ceiling, rather than a target, for inflation at close to but below 2 percent. But if one considers the ECB's self-assessment of success since its creation—achieving 2 percent inflation on average—its current inflation forecast of 1.3 percent would fall short of achieving its price stability mandate.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
61. Making Labor Market Reforms Work for Everyone: Lessons from Germany
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Mark Twain once wrote an essay about the difficulties of learning what he called "The Awful German Language." Similar barriers to comprehension seem to plague those trying to explain recent German economic performance. By most measures, Germany has the best functioning labor market among large economies in the West, with levels of employment reaching those in the United States at the end of the turbo-charged 1990s. A debate has stirred, however, about whether this success has come with a price—specifically, whether Germany's domestic structural reforms have lowered living standards for Germany's low income workers and worsened income inequality and whether Germany is fortuitously and perhaps selfishly riding a wave of strong foreign demand for German exports.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Germany
62. Global Trends of Multi-Factor Productivity
- Author:
- Jeong Yeon Lee
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Multi-factor productivity (MFP) compares the growth of gross domestic product with the growth of combined capital and labor inputs. The growth rate of MFP assumes theoretical significance because it represents the slope of the steady-state growth path, and hence is a major determinant of the long-term growth trend. This paper offers the balanced panel of the estimated growth rates of MFP for 24 OECD countries over 1986-2011. Based on the estimates of MFP growth, a number of notable trends in productivity growth are identified for the entire OECD area as well as three major economies – the United States, the Eurozone and Japan – within the OECD.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Europe
63. The IMF's Preferred Creditor Status: Does It Still Make Sense After the Euro Crisis?
- Author:
- Susan Schadler
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Throughout the history of IMF lending, the institution has had PCS — that is, distressed countries borrowing from the IMF are expected to give priority to meeting their obligations to the IMF over those to other (private or official) creditors. This status is a defining characteristic of the IMF's role in financial crises: it provides a high degree of confidence that IMF resources are safe even when other creditors of the distressed country face substantial uncertainty about whether they will be repaid in full. In other words, the IMF, which lends to some of the riskiest countries in the world, faces minimal risk that its resources could be compromised by a debtor country's difficulties in servicing its debt. It does so, however, with the confidence that comes from its role in helping to formulate and monitor a program of policies that are strongly expected to return the country to stability.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
64. The China-United States BIT negotiations: A Chinese perspective
- Author:
- Sheng Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- The China-US bilateral investment treaty (BIT) negotiations have attracted attention due to the relative size and weight of both economies. Despite broad consensus about the importance of such a treaty, there is considerable debate about its shape and content. The debate is reflected in two recent Columbia FDI Perspectives. Donnelly argued that a China-US BIT should be modeled on the US Model BIT without "splitting the difference between Chinese and US positions", and that the possibility of meaningful BIT negotiations are "really up to China at this point".
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Direct Investment, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, and Colombia
65. Who leads the new EMU? Implications of the Economic Crisis for the EU's Institutions
- Author:
- Teija Tiilikainen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Reforms made to the EU's economic and fiscal policies have served to reinforce the fragmentation of the division of competences between the EU and its member states in this field. It has also impacted the way in which these competences are exerted by the European and national institutions. Resulting from a differentiation of responsibilities between the eurozone countries and the rest of the EU, fragmentation is increasingly taking place even inside the EU institutions. The current fragmentation of competences and institutions complicates the democratic scrutiny of economic and fiscal policies. The biggest challenge is to accommodate the differentiated responsibilities of the eurozone countries and the rest of the EU within the framework of existing institutions in a w ay that would ensure the unity of this framework, but also the proper democratic anchoring of the EU's economic and fiscal powers.
- Topic:
- Economics and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
66. Many worlds of the 'low-skilled', but only one generic policy
- Author:
- Ilaria Maselli and Miroslav Beblavý
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- There is a general consensus that to achieve employment growth, especially for vulnerable groups, it is not enough to kick-start economic growth. It is also essential to improve the s kills among both the high-and low-skilled population.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Science and Technology, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Somalia
67. Falling short of expectations? Stress-testing the European banking system
- Author:
- Viral V. Acharya and Sascha Steffen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The eurozone is mired in a recession. In 2013, the GDP of all 17 eurozone countries fell by 0.5% and the outlook for 2014 shows considerable risks across the region. To stabilise the common currency area and its (partly insolvent) financial system, a eurozone banking union is being established. An important part of the banking union is the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), which will transfer the oversight of Europe's largest banks to the European Central Bank (ECB). Before the ECB takes over this responsibility, it plans to conduct an Asset Quality Review (AQR) in 2014, which will identify the capital shortfalls of these banks.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
68. The Eurasian Customs Union: the economics and the politics
- Author:
- Nicu Popescu and Iana Dreyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Long ignored by the West, the Eurasian Customs Union (consisting of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan) has recently been brought into the international limelight. The project – an attempt by the Kremlin to create a rival to the European Union and its Eastern Partnership project – attracted attention when Moscow, with its characteristic bluntness, began to pressure Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine to join the grouping and drop their plans to sign Association Agreements with the EU. Although Russia has not succeeded in convincing all these states to join, it managed to do so with Armenia in September 2013, and the political tussle over the issue with Ukraine played a central role in triggering the country's current crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eurasia, and Asia
69. One size to fit all? Setting standards for European defence
- Author:
- Daniel Fiott
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- While the crisis in Ukraine may contribute to a revision of defence expenditures in a number of European countries, the task of finding the right balance between cost-effective and strategicallyrelevant defence spending in Europe is still critical. As defence expenditure generally remains in decline across Europe, a range of innovative measures to ensure that defence budgets are spent more efficiently and effectively are being devised.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
70. Perspectives on topical foreign direct investment issues
- Author:
- Rainer Geiger
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Launched in July 2013 by the European Union and the United States, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) represents an important effort to reach a comprehensive economic agreement between two major trading partners. As has been pointed out, the project offers great opportunities for liberalizing trade and investment and regulatory convergence. Its level of ambition implies high risks, but despite negotiators' initial optimism, its success is far from certain. This Perspective focuses on the project's investment chapter, drawing lessons from the failed negotiations on a Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI), which was meant to consolidate the results of liberalization in the OECD area, establish new disciplines and introduce protection and dispute settlement.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
71. Beyond the Euro Crisis: European constitutional dilemmas and Treaty amendments
- Author:
- Janne Salminen and Päivi Leino
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The actual need for Treaty amendments is open to interpretation, for example in relation to the inclusion of the recent euro crisis-related international agreements in EU law. These questions are partly political in nature, and linked to the wider legitimacy of the EU and the integrity and clarity of its legal system. The full realization of the Commission's vision for the future of the EMU would require Treaty changes in order to revise the nature of competence in the area of economic policy and the general framework of cooperation. The recent discussion on the euro crisis measures has demonstrated that many member states have constitutional 'red lines' relating, for example, to the exercise of budgetary powers or sovereignty. It seems unlikely that these hurdles will be overcome in the short term.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
72. Is the EMU ready for future shocks? An overview of available backstops
- Author:
- Xavier Vanden Bosch
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- In recent years much has been accomplished to make the EMU more resilient to banking crises, sovereign-debt crises or balance-of-payment crises. Several 'backstops' or financial safety nets were progressively put in place to absorb the shocks that could have otherwise broken the EMU as a system. These substantial advances reflected a gradual, trial-and-error approach rather than a grand design that would have completely overhauled the EMU architecture. While flexibility and realism have advantages, complacency is a clear risk. With no roadmap to follow, efforts to complete the architecture of the EMU may fade with time. Maintaining a sense of direction is crucial while potential vulnerabilities remain.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
73. What future for the eurozone? Combining discipline, solidarity and institutional reforms
- Author:
- Stijn Verhelst and Xavier Vanden Bosch
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief discusses the challenges that await policymakers in reforming the EMU. A balance between discipline and solidarity will have to be found, while institutional reforms should improve the eurozone's legitimacy and efficiency. The key decisions on EMU reforms will have to be made during the 2014-2019 parliamentary term, as the window of opportunity for major reforms is likely to be closed afterwards.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Europe
74. Re-designing the European Climate and Energy policies post-2020
- Author:
- Clémentine d'Oultremont
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Ensuring the sustainability, security and cost-competitiveness of energy supplies for the EU citizens are the main objectives of the EU climate and energy policy, which remains high on the EU agenda. The next European legislature will have the difficult task to reconcile these different objectives into a comprehensive 2030 framework for climate and energy policies.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
75. The German Constitutional Court's decision about the European Central Bank's OMT mechanism: A masterpiece of judicial arrogance
- Author:
- Charles Secondat, Daisy Roterod, and P.J. Goossens
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The German Constitutional Court (BVG) recently referred different questions to the European Court of Justice for a preliminary ruling. They concern the legality of the European Central Bank's Outright Monetary Transaction mechanism created in 2012. Simultaneously, the German Court has threatened to disrupt the implementation of OTM in Germany if its very restrictive analysis is not validated by the European Court of Justice.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
76. Was the ECB's Comprehensive Assessment up to standard?
- Author:
- Willem Pieter De Groen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The Comprehensive Assessment conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) representsa considerable step forward in enhancing transparency ineuro-area banks' balance sheets. The most notable progress since the previous European stress test has been the hamonisation of the definition of non-performing loans and other concepts as well as uncovering hidden losses, which resulted in a €34 billion aggregate capital-chargenet of tax. Despite this tightening,most banks were able to meet the 5.5% common equity tier 1 (CET1) threshold applied in the test, whichsuggests that the large majority of the euro-area banks have improvedtheir financial position sufficiently to no longer constrainthem in financing the economy.Our own estimation based on the detailed results, however,provide a more nuanced picture, with a large numberof the banks still highly leveraged and in many cases unable to meet the regulatory capital requirementsthat will be introduced in the coming years underthe adverse stress test scenario.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Global Recession
- Political Geography:
- Europe
77. Russia's Punitive Trade Policy Measures towards Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia
- Author:
- Michael Emerson, Denis Cenusa, Tamara Kovziridse, and Veronika Movchan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- While EU and US sanctions against Russia over its aggression in Ukraine, and Russia's counter-sanctions, are much discussed due to their evident political significance, less attention has been given to Russia's punitive sanctions against the three Eastern European states – Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia – that have signed with the EU Association Agreements (AA), which include Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) provisions. This paper therefore documents these trade policy restrictions and embargoes imposed by Russia, and provides some first indications of their impact. The immediate impact on trade flows, especially for agri-food products, has been substantial, albeit with some leakage through Belarus. The main instrument for the Russian measures has been allegations of non-conformity with Russian technical standards, although the correlation of these allegations with movements in Russia's geopolitical postures makes it obvious that the Russian technical agencies are following political guidelines dressed up as scientific evidence. These measures also push the three states into diversifying their trade marketing efforts in favour of the EU and other world markets, with Georgia already having taken significant steps in this direction, since in its case the Russian sanctions date back to 2006. In the case of Ukraine, Russia's threat to cancel CIS free trade preferences infiltrated trilateral talks between the EU, Ukraine and Russia, leading on 12 September to their proposed postponement until the end of 2015 of the 'provisional' implementation of a large part of the AA/DCFTA. This was immediately followed on 16 September by ratification of the AA/DCFTA by both the Rada in Kyiv and the European Parliament, which will lead to its full and definitive entry into force when the 28 EU member states have also ratified it. However Putin followed the day after with a letter to Poroshenko making an abusive interpretation of the 12 September understanding.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Power Politics, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia
78. Ukraine: Stress at the IMF
- Author:
- Susan Schadler
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- In April 2014, in a departure from its normal aversion to lending to countries in conflict, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a US$17 billion loan to Ukraine to be disbursed over two years. At the time, Ukraine was three weeks away from a presidential election; engaged in combat with an armed separatist movement backed by Russia, its largest trading partner and supplier of energy; and experiencing a significant drain in foreign exchange reserves and bank deposits along with soaring yields on sovereign debt. The country was also reaping the returns of decades of economic mismanagement. Dire from both political and economic perspectives, the situation had the markings of a case where the IMF has the expertise to be usefully engaged, but there were also red flags demarcating circumstances that can hobble the IMF's effectiveness.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Monetary Fund, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
79. The 2014 Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance
- Author:
- Domenico Lombardi, Barry Carin, and David Kempthorne
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The annual CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance assesses progress in four dimensions of international economic governance: macroeconomic and financial cooperation; cooperation on financial regulation; cooperation on trade; and cooperation on climate change. Governance related to these dimensions is scored on the following progress scale: 0%-19% represents "major regression"; 20%-39% represents "some regression"; 40%-59% indicates "minimal progress"; 60%-79% characterizes progress; and 80%-100% represents "major progress." Recognizing the difficulty of making objective judgments given the complexity of the issues, the results are offered as a range of subjective opinions from CIGI experts with diverse backgrounds.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
80. An Economic Strategy to Save Ukraine
- Author:
- Anders Åslund
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Ukraine has experienced a year of unprecedented political, economic, and military turmoil. The combination of Russian military aggression in the east and a legacy of destructive policies leading to pervasive corruption has plunged the country into an existential crisis. The West, meanwhile, has been largely paralyzed with uncertainty over how to assist Ukraine without reviving Cold War hostilities. Yet all is not lost for Ukraine. A tenuous ceasefire, along with the successful elections of President Petro Poroshenko in May and a new parliament in October offer an opportunity for economic reform. If the current ceasefire in the east holds, Ukraine has a great opportunity to break out of its vicious circle of economic underperformance. Yet, the window of opportunity is likely to be brief. The new government will have to act fast and hard on many fronts to succeed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
81. Uranium from Niger: A key resource of diminishing importance for France
- Author:
- Bruno Tertrais
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- In France, natural uranium is immediately associated with the relationship to African countries. Uranium has always fed rumours, fantasies and conspiracy theories set against the background of all the colourful stories of what is known in France as the "Françafrique"; the web of personal and economic relations between Paris and its former colonies.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and France
82. "Don't poke the Russian bear": Turkish policy in the Ukrainian crisis
- Author:
- Balkan Devlen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- From the start of the Ukrainian crisis Turkey kept a low profile and adopted a strategy best described as "don't poke the Russian bear". Russia is a major Turkish trading partner and Turkey relies heavily on Russian natural gas for its energy needs, while Turkish prime minister Erdogan has also been dealing with serious domestic challenges in the last year. Therefore, due to both external and internal factors, Turkey will avoid confronting Russia directly and will pass the buck to the U.S. and EU. In the short to medium term there are three plausible scenarios under which Turkey will change its current policy. They include the oppression of Crimean Tatars by the Russian authorities; military confrontation in the Black Sea between Russia and NATO; or a more unified, tougher stance against Russia by the West. In the long term Turkey most likely will revert to its traditional role of balancing Russia by strengthening its ties with the West, while reducing its energy dependence on Russia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and Asia
83. Alternatives to Currency Manipulation: What Switzerland, Singapore, and Hong Kong Can Do
- Author:
- Joseph E. Gagnon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- For the major advanced economies and the world as a whole, insufficient aggregate demand—that is, too little spending—impeded recovery from the Great Recession of 2008-09. By manipulating their currencies to boost their net exports, many countries made a bad situation worse for their trading partners, which saw demand shifted away. The world needs policies that increase total demand rather than policies that fight over the allocation of the existing amount of demand.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, Switzerland, and Singapore
84. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: A critical perspective
- Author:
- Rainer Geiger
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Launched in July 2013 by the European Union and the United States, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) represents an important effort to reach a comprehensive economic agreement between two major trading partners. As has been pointed out, the project offers great opportunities for liberalizing trade and investment and regulatory convergence. Its level of ambition implies high risks, but despite negotiators' initial optimism, its success is far from certain.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
85. Bail-in Provisions in State Aid and Resolution Procedures: Are they consistent with systemic stability?
- Author:
- Stefano Micossi, Ginevra Bruzzone, and Miriam Cassella
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- In July 2013, the European Commission adopted a new Banking Communication – the seventh since the start of the financial crisis – updating its criteria for the evaluation of state aid in the banking sector in response to the evolving economic and institutional environment. Under this Communication, any credit institution in need of recapitalisation or 'impaired asset' measures will be required, prior to any further action, to submit a plan for restructuring or the orderly winding down the bank. Moreover, whenever there is a capital shortfall, the Commission will require that, prior to any injection of public funds, not only shareholders – as has been the case so far – but also junior creditors write down or convert into equity their claims on the bank, regardless of whether the bank is under resolution, in order to minimise the need for state aid.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
86. NATO's Framework Nations: Capabilities for an Unpredictable World
- Author:
- Franklin D. Kramer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- As the Ukraine crisis demonstrates, in an unpredictable world, military capabilities can be a critical factor. The longstanding goals of the United States and its NATO allies have been to create a Europe whole and free, and globally to support such goals through collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security. Ukraine raises the issue of how best to accomplish those ends. As part of the Ukraine response, there have been and will continue to be diplomatic, economic, and energy efforts. However, one key element will be to create more effective integrated capabilities that will support NATO's military tasks, and thus the values and goals that NATO represents.
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Ukraine, and North America
87. Turkish-Iranian Rapprochement and the Future of European and Asian Energy
- Author:
- Pinar Dost-Niyego and Orhan Taner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The recent events in Ukraine have revived the question of European dependence on Russian natural gas. The security of Europe's natural gas supply has been a consistently important issue in Russian-European Union (EU) relations. Russia provided 34 percent of EU gas in 2012, and Russian policies can have a direct impact on EU supplies. After the West-Russian confrontation over Ukraine, a lot has been said about the 'US shale gas revolution' and the possibilities of the United States becoming an energy exporter for future European energy needs. Although US energy independence seems to promise new perspectives for future European energy security, as well as for the balance of power in the Middle East, this is not for this decade. We cannot expect that the European Union would be able to cut off all of its energy relations with Russia, but we can foresee–or at least agree–that the European Union should diversify its natural gas supplies.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia
88. Easing US and EU Sanctions on Iran
- Author:
- Kenneth Katzman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since the seizure of US hostages in Iran following the 1979 revolution, the US government has imposed a succession of economic penalties against the Islamic Republic. The complexity and severity of these sanctions intensified following Iran's resumption of a uranium enrichment program in 2006. However, there are a variety of ways to provide extensive sanctions relief should there be a deal placing long-term restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, and North America
89. The BRICS Development Bank: Why the world's newest global bank must adopt a pro-poor agenda
- Author:
- Lysa John
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- In July 2014, a new multilateral and Southern-led development bank is expected to be launched by the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – better known as the BRICS. The BRICS Development Bank will provide a fresh source of finance for developing and emerging economies to meet their development needs. Little has been made public regarding the proposed Bank's core mandate or activities but while governments negotiate the technicalities of the Bank, it is critical that they also provide a solid vision of the principles, priorities and objectives on which the Bank's activities and operations will be premised. This policy brief recommends that these include commitments to: ending extreme poverty and inequality, with a special focus on gender equity and women's rights; aligning with environmental and social safeguards and establishing mechanisms for information sharing, accountability and redress; leadership on the sustainable development agenda; the creation of mechanisms for public consultation and debate; and the adoption a truly democratic governance structure.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Gender Issues, International Cooperation, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America
90. Flexibility clauses in the Stability and Growth Pact: No need for revision
- Author:
- Stefano Micossi and Fabrizia Peirce
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The policy debate about how best to restore growth in the flagging eurozone economy has been plagued by demands from some highly indebted member countries that the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) be loosened to leave greater room to support the economy with budgetary instruments. These demands have been met with an instant rebuff from the Commission and other financially solid members who argue that loosening the Pact would do little to restore sound growth. This question has also hindered the broader discussion on the need for and content of a renewed growth strategy for the eurozone and the European Union, no least by fuelling fresh mistrust among their member states.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Europe
91. Eritrea: Ending the Exodus?
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The large emigration of youths is the clearest sign of extreme domestic discontent with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki's government. Social malaise is pervasive. An ever-growing number of young people have fled over the last decade, frustrated by open-ended national service – initiated in 1995 and expanded during the war with Ethiopia (1998-2000). Yet, this flight has resulted in neither reforms nor a viable movement to create an alternative to the current government. Once outside, the ties that bind émigrés to their birthplace are strong and lead them to give financial support to the very system they escaped, through the 2 per cent tax many pay the state as well as remittances sent home to family members.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, Immigration, Youth Culture, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
92. A Eurozone Subcommittee in the European Parliament: high hopes, low results?
- Author:
- Stijn Verhelst
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The task of ensuring the democratic legitimacy of the euro has been placed high on the agenda. A eurozone subcommittee in the European Parliament is one of the rare concrete proposals to secure this, creating high hopes. Due to legal and political hurdles the idea might nonetheless have minimal results, which might result in suboptimal parliamentary scrutiny of the eurozone. This Policy Brief argues that if a eurozone subcommittee is to be both meaningful and politically feasible, it should combine substantial competences with innovative decision-making.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
93. The Situation of Roma between Human Rights and Economics
- Author:
- Eben Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- If the dominant focus of documents on Roma published by intergovernmental organizations in the 1990s was on providing redress for past violations of human rights and protection fromfuture discrimination, this is no longer the case as of early 2014. Over the last decade, it has become increasingly common for calls to improve the situation of Roma to be justified in terms of economic benefits for society as a whole.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, Human Rights, Minorities, and Protected People
- Political Geography:
- Europe
94. A Competitive Two-speed Policy: The Eastern Partnership beyond 2013
- Author:
- Kinga Dudzinska, Elzbieta Kaca, and Karolina Zubel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- A redefinition of the Eastern Partnership beyond 2013 is urgently needed in order to make the EU a more competitive player vis-à-vis Russia and China in the region. Eastern partners which choose deeper economic integration with the EU must therefore be supported by enhanced cooperation, which would require further differentiation in approaches towards neighbours. It should also be supported by certain horizontal policies, strengthening the EU's multilateral cooperation and the fledgling European Union diplomacy in this region, assisted by better targeting policies at EaP societies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- China and Europe
95. Bundestag Elections 2013: Consequences for German Capitalism and European Integration
- Author:
- Sebastian Plóciennik
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Germany will draw a lot of attention in September 2013 when its citizens will choose a new federal parliament-Bundestag. The reason is not only the fact that the country is a big player but also that it dominates Europe on a scale not observed since the 1980s. Its economic model seems to be the most efficient in Europe at the moment and the country even has enough power to set reform agendas across the EU. Since the biggest changes in German internal and external politics can be expected if the opposition is victorious, it seems important to analyse in advance the key elements of the proposals by the major opposition force: Social-Democratic Party (SPD) and the Alliance 90/The Greens. This could help us understand what kind of change to German capitalism is advocated by these parties and how their election success could affect European integration.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
96. Is Moldova Tired of Being the Success Story of the Eastern Partnership?
- Author:
- Anita Sobják
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Despite months of internal political wrangling, Moldova seems to be making steady progress in its Association Agreement with the EU. But the domestic political crisis has revealed many truths about both Moldova's European policy and the EU's transformative power. As such, the road to the EU remains murky as long as several variables remain in place: the ongoing tensions in the governing alliance, lower public support for European integration in Moldova, and Russia's re-emerging leverage via Transnistria. That is why Poland, together with its partners, should look for new ways to keep Moldova as the pacesetter of the Eastern Partnership.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
97. Poland and Spain: How to Cooperate in a Europe in Flux
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The lingering effects of the eurozone crisis have weakened the European project as a whole. As a result, stronger and more effective cooperation between enthusiastic EU countries such as Poland and Spain is very much needed. Besides cooperation within the EU in such fields as completing the single market and promoting a more holistic approach to the European Neighbourhood Policy, both countries should focus on improving their economic ties in bilateral relations and beyond. Through "smart" trade triangulation, Poland could open new markets in Eastern Europe for Spain, and Spain could reciprocate by doing the same for Poland in Latin America. This could help Poland make the economy more competitive and give Spain a lever for economic recovery.
- Topic:
- Economics, Bilateral Relations, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Latin America
98. Financial Services in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
- Author:
- Simon Johnson and Jeffrey J. Schott
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In July 2013, the United States and the European Union launched negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The talks aim to craft a comprehensive accord matching or exceeding the reforms achieved in their previous trade pacts. Since both sides have included financial services in prior free trade agreements (FTAs), they implicitly recognized that the TTIP accord would also cover this sector. But what will be included in the financial services chapter is still subject to debate.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
99. Truth and Lies about Poverty: Ending comfortable myths about poverty
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- In 1753 John Wesley, the founder of Methodism said, "So wickedly, devilishly false is that common objection, 'They are poor, only because they are idle'". Yet today many churchgoers and members of the general public alike have come to believe that the key factors driving poverty in the UK are the personal failings of the poor – especially 'idleness'. How did this come about?
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Sociology
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
100. The Review of the Europe 2020 Strategy: From austerity to prosperity?
- Author:
- Andrea Renda
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief looks at available options for the mid-term review of Europe 2020, which is currently being addressed both by the European Commission and by several Council formations under the aegis of the Italian presidency of the EU, and will be finalised by March 2015.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, Infrastructure, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy