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2. Talking to the Houthis: How Europeans can promote peace in Yemen
- Author:
- Raiman Al-Hamdani and Helen Lackner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Early Houthi promises to Yemenis of fairer and more transparent government have come to nothing, and the group exerts a rule of brutal suppression. The Houthis now govern over most of Yemen’s population and should be included in efforts to end the conflict and restore peace to the country. The Houthis seek international recognition, face growing internal challenges, and may no longer want to extend their control over southern Yemen. This provides some negotiating space. While the Houthis benefit from Iranian support, they are driven by their own interests and will wage war regardless of Tehran’s position. European states should now increase conditional engagement with the Houthis, looking to widen political and humanitarian space on the ground, while pushing all sides to the negotiating table.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Negotiation, Peace, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Yemen, and Gulf Nations
3. The End of German Ostpolitik: What a Change in Germany’s Russia Strategy Might Look Like
- Author:
- Stefan Meister
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia have hit a new low after the attempted poisoning of Alexei Navalny and the Kremlin’s continued support for Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, despite massive electoral fraud in that country. A new Russia policy in Berlin will require a paradigm shift, using incentives and leverage to improve Germany’s negotiating position with Moscow. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline project should be under intense scrutiny. If Moscow shows itself unwilling to cooperate, construction should be stopped.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Leadership, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Libya, Germany, and Syria
4. Europe Is Creating an Opportunity for Iran Talks, and Washington Should Take It
- Author:
- Charles Thépaut and Elena DeLozier
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- By triggering the nuclear deal’s dispute resolution mechanism, Britain, France, and Germany are opening diplomatic space that could help the United States and Iran return to the negotiating table. In a press conference following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, President Trump reaffirmed his administration’s “maximum pressure” policy against Iran and asked, once again, for European countries to leave the nuclear deal. Meanwhile, Tehran announced what it called a “fifth and final remedial step” away from its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In response, the British, French, and German foreign ministers stated on January 14 that they would trigger the JCPOA’s dispute resolution mechanism (DRM). At the same time, however, the E3 clarified that they are not joining the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, which has steadily intensified ever since the United States withdrew from the JCPOA and reimposed unilateral sanctions in 2018. Contrary to U.S. claims, the European decision will not immediately provoke “snapback” UN sanctions on Iran (though that scenario could unfold later if the E3 plan fails and Iran’s violations go before the UN Security Council). Instead, Europe is maintaining its evenhanded position somewhere between Washington and Tehran in order to preserve the possibility of new negotiations, on both the nuclear program and other regional issues.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Nuclear Power, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
5. The Normandy Negotiations Renewed: Divisions at Home and Opportunity Abroad
- Author:
- David Carment
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- After three years of limited discussion, the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine renewed their peace talks to resolve the separatist conflict in Eastern Ukraine (Donbas). Efforts to facilitate a peaceful resolution to the conflict in the Donbas began five years ago with the meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine. This framework, developed by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), attempted to facilitate a dialogue between Russia and Ukraine through the mediation of an impartial actor, and it culminated in the Minsk I (September 2014) and then Minsk II (February 2015) agreements. The Minsk II agreements comprised a 13-point peace plan, chief among which is an arrangement specifying support for the restoration of the Ukrainian-Russian border. While the implementation of the military portions of the Minsk II agreements were finalized within three months of signing, the political and security portions remained unresolved. Though President Vladimir Putin has declared his intent to protect the Russian-speaking peoples of the region, he has also stated he has no interest in reclaiming Eastern Ukraine. Not surprisingly, since Russia’s ultimate goal is undeclared, the conflict has proved very difficult to resolve.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Territorial Disputes, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Canada, France, Germany, and United States of America
6. DONBAS PEACE TALKS 2.0: Russia’s Objectives and Ukraine’s Limits
- Author:
- Cristina Gherasimov and András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- On October 1, 2019, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy agreed to meet Russia’s conditions for holding peace talks already this autumn. Moscow’s readiness to play, however, should not be mistaken for willingness to solve the conflict. So far, the Kremlin has not made any concessions in Eastern Ukraine that would be irreversible; consequently, it seems to only be testing Zelenskiy’s limits. Both Zelenskiy and the EU need to be cautious not to reward easy-to-reverse steps with major, strategic benefits.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine
7. Serbia's state of play regarding Chapters 23 and 24: One step forward, two steps back
- Author:
- Jana Juzová
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- The discussion on the future of EU enlargement was opened again this year. After yet another disappointment for Albania and North Macedonia at the European Council’s session in October, the discussion turned towards a revision of the enlargement methodology. The argument that the enlargement process needs to undergo a reform, put forward by France as a justification of its October veto for Albania and North Macedonia, is based on the fact that the current process is not delivering adequately. That is true especially for the current frontrunners, Montenegro and Serbia, setting a bad example for other candidate countries in the region and giving more reasons to oppose enlargement to some already sceptical EU Member States. Both countries’ progress on the accession path has recently slowed down significantly, with some suggesting that the current low number of chapters that are being opened and closed, and progress only on “technical” rather than substantial matters, is due to the serious problems both countries have in the area of rule of law and democratic standards.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Serbia
8. European Union-Western Balkans: for a revised membership negotiation framework
- Author:
- Pierre Mirel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- Whilst the Thessaloniki Summit in 2003 opened up European prospects for the Western Balkans, the agenda that was promoted then has hardly been completed to date. These countries have experienced worrying democratic regression in a serious demographic and economic situation which is playing into the hands of re-emerging powers. The re-engagement of the European Union with the Berlin Process and the six flagship initiatives on the part of the Commission, approved in 2018 is positive, but is now seen to be lacking. Divisions are still deep, and reconciliation is waning. Given the fragile stability of these countries, which are now being wooed by third parties, the time has come for a new approach. Economic and political re-engagement, including the launch of membership negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, but based on a new framework, is vital for the very security of Europe.
- Topic:
- Security, European Union, Regional Integration, Negotiation, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
9. From Meseberg to Nowhere? A Franco-German Impetus for the Eurozone
- Author:
- Eileen Keller
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- This study analyses the joint efforts by France and Germany to bring about a comprehensive reform of the European currency union. These efforts culminated in the joint Meseberg Declaration adopted in June 2018. The article contextualises these efforts with respect to the reforms realised so far and the different reform options at hand. Besides questions of economic viability and institutional deficits, the article tackles issues of political feasibility. “From Meseberg to nowhere” was the prognosis given by Werner Mussler, economic correspondent for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in Brussels. Commenting on the outlook for the joint declaration by the French President and German Chancellor on 19 June, following protracted negotiations at the German Government's official guest house at Schloss Meseberg, near Berlin, the journalist was critical of both the compromises it contained on strengthening the euro area and the chances of these ever being implemented. There is no question that the negotiations on the development of the euro area come at a difficult time. However, there are still good grounds for reaching a different conclusion. Both valid economic and political reasons can be found for the reforms proposed in the declaration, the details of which have yet to be developed. Anyone broaching the subject realistically knows that negotiations on economic and monetary union have always been challenging, due to differing concepts of economic policy and divergent economic needs and interests. At the same time, the two figures responsible for the Meseberg Declaration are both exceptional political personalities whom have shown in the past that they can cope with difficult negotiations, and can achieve remarkable results – on condition that Angela Merkel remains in office.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Economy, Negotiation, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, and Germany
10. Briefing Note on elections in Bulgaria
- Author:
- Yorgos Christidis
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- In ELIAMEP Briefing Note 51/2017 Associate Professor at the University of Macedonia Yorgos Christidis offers a brief analysis of the Bulgarian Parliamentary Elections of 26th March 2017 and of the negotiations concerning the formation of the next government.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Bulgaria
11. The Resumption of Accession Talks: A Hesitant Improvement in Turkey-EU Negotiations
- Author:
- Filippo Urbinati
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- After more than three1year deadlock, 2013 was marked by the attempt by Brussels and Ankara to restart the dialogue for Turkey’s accession to European Union. Two developments were remarkable in this process: the release of the most favorable Progress Report on Turkey since 2009, and the opening of the community acquis Chapter 22 on Regional Policy and Coordination of Structural Instruments. Regarding the former development, the European Commission underlined the positive steps achieved by Turkey and the pressing need for the EU to enhance its engagement with Turkey and revitalize the accession negotiations’ framework as the main way to promote EU sponsored reforms. As far as the latter development is concerned, the relevance of the opening of a new chapter cannot be overestimated as the political stumbling blocks, which led the negotiations to stagnation, have been kept untouched and are still far from solved. This policy update is intended to give account of the main issues connected with these developments and underline the reasons for why they have to be considered important steps forward but¬ the decisive ones.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, European Union, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
12. Cyprus – Should the UN Withdraw?
- Author:
- Jan Asmussen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- Ban Ki Moon’s long awaited progress report on the negotiations in Cyprus did not come up with a final recommendation on how long the United Nations will be committed to engage in Cyprus. However, he warned that the UN would not continue indefinitely to spend efforts and money on a process that does not seem to render any progress. Indeed there is not much to suggest that a negotiated solution is anywhere close to be concluded in the foreseeable future. This appears strange as on the onset the past three years have seen the most intensive and most comprehensive negotiation process ever.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus