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2. Ethnic Divisions and Ensuring Stability in Kazakhstan: A Guide for U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Suzanne Loftus
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- This brief assesses ethnic divisions in Kazakhstan, analyzes the potential risks of ethnic and geopolitical tension and makes recommendations for U.S. policy. Kazakhstan’s current approach to managing its internal divides and overall stability is assessed and drivers of potential risk are evaluated. Due to renewed cold war tensions with China and Russia, the United States must resist any temptation to become involved in Kazakhstan’s internal politics and refrain from any efforts to sway Kazakhstan to ally itself with the West. This would only cause internal instability and hostile relations with its neighbors, Russia and China. Given Kazakhstan’s potential for domestic strife, U.S. interests are best served by a restrained approach to the country that better preserves its internal and external stability. Kazakhstan’s vast land mass and sparse population leave the country vulnerable to potential external threats. Kazakhstan borders Russia and China, its strongest security and economic partners respectively. These two powers are very close while the United States is far and consequently plays a relatively minor role in the country. The United States can and should, however, engage economically with Kazakhstan to support its development.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political stability, Ethnicity, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and United States of America
3. Steppe change: How Russia’s war on Ukraine is reshaping Kazakhstan
- Author:
- Marie Dumoulin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine came as an additional shock for Kazakhstan, which had already experienced serious domestic unrest in January 2022. Kazakhstan has consistently distanced itself from Russia’s aggression and diversified its relationships with various countries, while preserving its bilateral relationship with Moscow. The war has further highlighted the need for political reforms in Kazakhstan, yet complicated the government’s ability and willingness to implement them. Kazakhstan is now cautiously navigating political change both domestically and in its foreign policy. The EU has shown interest in engaging more with Kazakhstan. It can help the country to overcome this critical juncture by encouraging and supporting its genuine domestic transformation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan
4. Development of the IT Industry and Structural Transformation: Focused on IT Cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
- Author:
- Minhyeon Jeong, Jiyoung Min, and Dongyeon Jeong
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This study was designed as a primary study to analyze the economic significance and potential of cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the IT sector, and to derive implications for new directions between Korea and the three countries with the advent of the fourth industrial revolution era. The goal of the study is to discuss what the development of the IT industry means for the three economies, examine the characteristics of each country, and gain policy implications on how cooperation with Korea should proceed in the future. To this end, this study is consisted of the following four components. First, the economic significance of IT technology cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan is viewed from the perspective of structural transformation. Second, the effect of IT cooperation between Korea and Russia on the Russian economy is quantitatively estimated through the analytical framework of structural transformation. Third, to supplement the limitations of theoretical discussions and derive customized cooperation directions for each country, the current status and policies of the IT industry in the three countries are examined in detail. Fourth, IT technology subsectors promising for cooperation between Korea and Russia are identified, from the patent citation analysis and network analysis.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Science and Technology, Industry, and Information Technology
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan
5. Turkey in Central Asia: Possibilities and limits of a greater role
- Author:
- Toni Alaranta and Kristiina Silvan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s long-term search for strategic autonomy, shifting global power relations, and Central Asian governments’ desire to foster multi-vector foreign policies have prompted Turkey to successfully intensify its activities in Central Asia. From the 1990s onwards, Turkey’s activism in Central Asia has strengthened cultural, trade, and diplomatic relations. Its multilateral coordinating body, the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States, is being further institutionalized into the Organization of Turkic States. Turkey’s potential for acquiring a greater role in the region is limited. Its economic engagement remains modest, and Central Asian states’ responses to the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan indicate that Russia and China remain the region’s preferred security partners. Although Turkey, China, Russia, and other external actors compete in Central Asia, no full-fledged confrontation has taken place in the region so far. Turkey’s new initiatives are unlikely to change this dynamic, as long as they are conducted in the spirit of inclusive multipolarity.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, and Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Asia
6. Leadership successions in Central Asia: Elite pacts, dynasties and revolutions
- Author:
- Kristiina Silvan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Despite their shared communist past, similarities in political systems, and record of “authoritarian learning” from one another, there is significant diversity in how Central Asian regimes have prepared and undergone leadership successions. Authoritarian states, particularly those led by personalist rulers, face instability during moments of leadership succession. Sometimes the turbulence develops into a full-blown succession crisis characterized by increased elite contestation and popular protests. In Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, personalist leaders died in office and the elites chose a successor after negotiations. Still, most regional leaders have sought to pass power gradually to a designated successor, either a familial or non-familial member of the elite, with varying degrees of success. China and Russia have been directly and indirectly involved in the transitions. Moscow has been particularly involved in the short-term de-escalation of succession crises in Kyrgyzstan in 2020 and Kazakhstan in 2022. Russia’s war in Ukraine has changed the context of Central Asian successions, which means that future transitions will take place in uncharted territory.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Succession, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Asia
7. If Russia Uses Migration as a Weapon, Europeans Should Respond In Kind
- Author:
- Alia Fakhry, Roderick Parkes, and András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Around 442,000 people have so far fled Ukraine – not just to the EU, but also to neighbors like Moldova. This is a humanitarian issue, and should not be conflated with “migrant instrumentalization” (MI), whereby a state pushes people across a border to coerce the EU to change position. Yet Russia is likely to employ MI in this way, especially if it moves deep into Western Ukraine. Drawing on an in-depth study, we show how the EU can meet this specific threat.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Ukraine
8. Sea Change for Europe’s Security Order: Three Future Scenarios
- Author:
- Christian Mölling, Tyson Barker, David Hagebölling, Afra Herr, and Kai Kornhuber
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The war of aggression that Russia launched against Ukraine in February has destroyed the European security order. The German government has defined this moment as a sea change (Zeitenwende) for its foreign and security policy. It still must envisage and shape a new order. Key factors are whether Europe will be united in strategic policy areas, and how Russia will position itself.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Science and Technology, European Union, and Geoeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe
9. Developments in Kazakhstan 2022: Causes and Consequences
- Author:
- Yurii Poita
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- In January 2022, mass protests arose in Kazakhstan due to an increase in gas prices for cars, which instantly covered almost the entire country. From the initial demands of the demonstrators in Zhanaozen in the southwest of the country they quickly transformed into anti-government ones: the protesters demanded the resignation of the government, a change in the current political regime and the departure of the first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The willingness of the Kazakh authorities to make concessions and satisfy part of the demands did not stop the protests: they expanded significantly both quantitatively and geographically and in a short time the protest was marginalized and transformed into pogroms and looting, especially in the city of Almaty in southern Kazakhstan.
- Topic:
- Governance, Social Movement, Protests, and Repression
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and Asia
10. 2021 Resource Governance Index: Azerbaijan (Oil and Gas)
- Author:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Azerbaijan’s oil and gas sector scored 56 points out of 100 in the 2021 Resource Governance Index (RGI), up by nine points since the 2017 RGI. The country’s ability to realize value from the sector and its overall “enabling environment” deteriorated since the last assessment, but revenue management improved by 35 points and now places in the “good” performance band. Key messages: Governance of licensing received a “failing” 11 points, due to a lack of rules and disclosures in the licensing process, as well issues regarding disclosure of officials’ financial interests and identification of the beneficial owners of companies involved in the sector. The governance of local impacts received a “failing” score, with issues both in terms of the laws and disclosures of environmental and social impact assessments and environmental mitigation plans. SOCAR, the state-owned oil producer, scored in the lower end of the “satisfactory” performance band, with commodity sales rules and disclosures especially problematic. The implementation of fiscal rules and their monitoring boosted the national budgeting subcomponent score by 37 points since the 2017 RGI. SOFAZ, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, received a “good” score due to improvements in both the legal framework and disclosures.
- Topic:
- Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Azerbaijan
11. Russian policy towards Central Asia 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union: Sphere of influence shrinking?
- Author:
- Kristiina Silvan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia views Central Asia as its sphere of influence and attempts to keep the five post-Soviet countries, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, in its geopolitical orbit. Central Asian countries’ dependency on Russia is decreasing, albeit at a different pace in different policy spheres and geographical areas. This variation depends upon factors ranging from Moscow’s priorities, the presence and capability of Russia and other actors, and Central Asian domestic issues. Russia’s policy in Central Asia is rooted in bilateral relations, but from the early 2000s onwards, Moscow has sought to integrate the region’s states into multilateral organizations that it leads, primarily in the spheres of economy and security. Russian influence in the region is greatest in the security sphere and, due to the rise of China, smallest in the economic sector. People-to-people contacts remain strong as a result of the common Soviet past and current migration flows. Central Asian countries share Russia’s authoritarian outlook on politics. Russia remains a powerful player in Central Asia, but Moscow’s lack of a forward-looking strategy and its current great-power posturing threaten its dominance in the future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Post-Soviet Space, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia
12. Tracking the Digital Component of the BRI in Central Asia, Part One: Exporting “Safe Cities” to Uzbekistan
- Author:
- Sergey Sukhankin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Following the 2013 announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) at a speech given by People’s Republic of China President Xi Jinping during visit to Kazakhstan, Central Asia has been a key regional priority and an indispensable element for the success of the BRI as a whole (PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs, September 7, 2013). Over the years, the BRI—nebulously defined from the start—has come to be associated with a variety of policy and investment programs. A previous series of articles has covered security-related developments associated with the BRI aimed at maintaining stability and protecting economic investments across the region (China Brief July 15; October 19; August 12).China has also begun to expand its export of digital infrastructure and surveillance technology under the umbrella of the BRI. The digitalization strategy—ostensibly aimed at promoting the international integration of technology with infrastructure and finance as well as spreading digital innovation abroad—is often referred to as the Digital Silk Road (DSR, 数字丝绸之路, shuzi sichou zhi lu). The high-level emphasis on promoting the DSR has only grown under the COVID-19 pandemic (CGTN, June 10, 2020). Across Central Asia, the DSR has been primarily represented by efforts to export China’s Smart/Safe City programs, which allow governments to collect, store, process and analyze vast amounts of personal information. The promotion of the so-called “informatization” of society (信息化, xinxi hua) and data commodification are yet more driving forces behind China’s DSR ambitions in Central Asia.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Surveillance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- China, Central Asia, Asia, and Uzbekistan
13. Regional Financial Cooperation in East Asia from a New Perspective
- Author:
- Sungbae An and Subin Kim
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Following the Asian financial crisis of 1998, there was a need to improve regional financial cooperation, including liquidity support. The Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (hereinafter, CMIM) and the Asian Bond Market Initiative (hereafter, ABMI) are two of the outcomes, but it is difficult to find countries that are actively using these mechanisms. Against this backdrop, we will first examine the limitations of existing systems and propose ways to overcome those limitations, as well as new ways to strengthen East Asian financial cooperation. We suggest three ways to strengthen financial coopera-tion in East Asia from a new perspective: 1) monetary cooperation through Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) 2) establishment of development financial institution in Northeast Asia 3) financial cooperation with Central Asia and Mongolia. Of course, more precise planning is required to implement these alternatives, and it is also recognized that the topics covered in this study represent only a subset of regional financial and monetary cooperation. However, by overcoming the limitations thus far, it is hoped that it can be a contribution that provides at least a glimmer of thought, which can hopefully become more concrete in future studies.
- Topic:
- Development, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and East Asia
14. Analysis of Economic Cooperation between Kazakhstan and South Korea
- Author:
- Yessengali Oskenbayev
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This article investigates the potential direction of the Kazakh-Korean economic relationship. The two countries have become major partners in their economic relationship. It is important for Kazakhstan to establish economic relations with South Korea, to diversify its economy. Kazakhstan’s economy is strongly dominated by mineral resources extractive sectors, and the country’s rapid economic growth during the period from 2000 to 2007, and afterward due to oil price increases, was not well translated into substantial growth of non-extractive sectors. Kazakhstan could employ strategies applied by Korean policymakers to sustain business and entrepreneurship development.
- Topic:
- Development, Bilateral Relations, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, Diversification, Trade, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Asia, and South Korea
15. Displacement and the Vulnerability to Mobilize for Violence: Evidence from Afghanistan
- Author:
- Sadaf Lakhani and Rahmatullah Amiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Forced displacement affects over 70 million people worldwide and is among the most pressing humanitarian and development challenges today. This report attempts to ascertain whether a relationship exists between displacement in Afghanistan and vulnerability to recruitment to violence by militant organizations. The report leverages an understanding of this relationship to provide recommendations to government, international donors, and others working with Afghanistan’s displaced populations to formulate more effective policies and programs.
- Topic:
- Development, Taliban, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, Displacement, Violence, and Mobility
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and Central Asia
16. Moscow’s Disinformation Offensive During COVID-19: The Case of Lithuania
- Author:
- Richard Weitz and Aurimas Lukas Pieciukaitis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Russian media outlets have waged a comprehensive disinformation campaign throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Both the US State Department’s Global Engagement Center (GEC) and the EU External Action Service (EEAS) have identified numerous stories in Kremlinlinked accounts that have sought to discredit the policies and performance of Western democracies, while conversely painting Russian actions in a most positive light. According to the GEC, throughout the pandemic, “the full Russian ecosystem of official state media, proxy news sites, and social media personas have been pushing multiple disinformation narratives.”
- Topic:
- Health Care Policy, Media, Repression, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, and Lithuania
17. Forgotten Ground Zeros: Local populations exposed to radiation from former nuclear test sites
- Author:
- Magdalena Stawkowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Around the world, hundreds of thousands of people live in and around former nuclear test sites. Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan provides both a home and a livelihood for an estimated 50,000 people, but security measures are not yet sufficient to protect them from radioactive waste from the past. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ Establish local education programs to prevent unintentional exposure to residual radioactivity ■ Encourage local authorities to promote radiation-safety programs ■ Cordon off and secure unmarked radioactive areas on nuclear test sites ■ Carry out regular radiation monitoring in villages close to nuclear test sites, as well as of livestock
- Topic:
- Health, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Kazakhstan
18. Insurgent Bureaucracy: How the Taliban Makes Policy
- Author:
- Ashley Jackson and Rahmatullah Amiri
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The system of shadow Taliban governance and the experiences of civilians subject to it are well documented. The policies that guide this governance and the factors that contribute to them, however, are not. This report examines how the Taliban make and implement policy. Based on more than a hundred interviews and previously unreleased Taliban documents, this report offers rare insight into Taliban decision-making processes and the factors that influence them.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Governance, Taliban, and Bureaucracy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and Central Asia
19. Preventing Violent Extremism While Promoting Human Rights: Toward a Clarified UN Approach
- Author:
- Chuck Thiessen
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- In response to the threat of violent extremism, the UN has adopted a comprehensive approach that involves both aligning ongoing interventions with the goals of preventing violent extremism (PVE) and implementing PVE-specific programming. These initiatives aspire to use human rights-based approaches as opposed to hard-security counterterrorism responses. To date, however, there has been inadequate research on how the UN and other international organizations can promote human rights as part of their PVE programming. This issue brief introduces findings on the strategic shift of UN peacebuilding interventions toward PVE and the barriers these interventions face to protecting human rights, drawing on research conducted in Kyrgyzstan. It concludes that PVE approaches to peacebuilding are fundamentally ambiguous, which may be hindering promotion of human rights. These ambiguities lie both in the terminology and strategies of intervention and in the drivers of radicalization and violent extremism. By clarifying its approach to PVE, the UN can dilute the inherent contradiction in its dual role as a critic and supporter of host states and reduce the odds that its interventions legitimize human rights violations.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, United Nations, and Violent Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Global Focus
20. Engaging with Non-state Armed Groups to Protect Civilians: A Pragmatic Approach for UN Peace Operations
- Author:
- Ralph Mamiya
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Engaging non-state armed groups (NSAGs) is an essential tool for the protection of civilians (POC), a priority mandate and core objective for peace operations. Beyond the use of force to prevent or stop armed groups from threatening local populations, multidimensional missions can use a wide range of unarmed strategies, such as dialogue and engagement, to counter hostilities from non-state actors. This paper looks at how, when, and why UN missions engage with NSAGs. It gives an overview of current practice, drawing on the experiences of the missions in Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mali. It then examines the risks of engaging NSAGs and how POC mandates can help missions navigate these risks. Finally, it looks at peace operations’ unique capacities to engage with NSAGs and how best to leverage them. Civilian protection is ever more urgent, and engaging NSAGs is crucial to this work. A pragmatic approach, anchored in POC considerations, can help guide missions through potentially polarizing debates and safeguard UN principles while simultaneously allowing them to adapt more effectively to the challenges they face.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Non State Actors, Peacekeeping, Armed Forces, and Civilians
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, Central Asia, Mali, Central African Republic, and Congo
21. Syria Calling: Radicalisation in Central Asia
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Growing numbers of Central Asian citizens, male and female, are travelling to the Middle East to fight or otherwise support the Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL or ISIS). Prompted in part by political marginalisation and bleak economic prospects that characterise their post-Soviet region, 2,000-4,000 have in the past three years turned their back on their secular states to seek a radical alternative. IS beckons not only to those who seek combat experience, but also to those who envision a more devout, purposeful, fundamentalist religious life. This presents a complex problem to the governments of Central Asia. They are tempted to exploit the phenomenon to crack down on dissent. The more promising solution, however, requires addressing multiple political and administrative failures, revising discriminatory laws and policies, implementing outreach programs for both men and women and creating jobs at home for disadvantaged youths, as well as ensuring better coordination between security services.
- Topic:
- Islam, Religion, Terrorism, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Middle East, and Asia
22. Insurgent Alliances in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Mallory Sutika Sipus
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- One of the contributing factors to Afghanistan’s civil conflict has been the fluidity within military alliances at the sub-national level. This brief examines the circumstances of military alliances between insurgent commanders—what factors play into an alliance and how they are maintained, with assessments resulting from research from the Centre for Conflict and Peace Studies and supported by USIP.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
23. Afghanistan's Continuing Fiscal Crisis: No End In Sight
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- For several years, Afghanistan’s economy and public finances have worsened, culminating in a full-blown fiscal crisis in 2014. Political uncertainties, the weakening Afghan economy, corruption in tax collection, stagnant government revenues, and increasing expenditures have contributed to the current fiscal impasse. In the absence of bold actions by the Afghan government along with proactive international support to turn around the fiscal situation, the fiscal crisis and its insidious effects will continue.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
24. Reviving Afghanistan's Economy
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Some say reviving the Afghan economy in a time of intensifying violent conflict and declining external financial inflows will be impossible. Expectations need to be kept modest, and measures must go beyond conventional economic approaches in order to be effective. This brief puts forward some outside-the-box ideas, which, combined with greater government effectiveness and, hopefully, reductions in violent conflict, may help turn the economy around.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
25. Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations: The Prospect of Reviving Taliban Talks
- Author:
- Moeed Yusuf
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- There are few viable options for resolving Afghanistan’s conflict other than an inclusive peace process between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Momentum toward this goal must be maintained following the “Heart of Asia” Ministerial Conference on December 9, 2015, where Afghan, Pakistani, and U.S. officials renewed their commitment to resuming dialogue. This brief discusses three key concerns that need to be addressed to effectively move the peace process forward and achieve a near-term cease-fire.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Central Asia
26. Security and Social Developments in Kunduz
- Author:
- Peyton Cooke and Eliza Urwin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Long-standing social and political grievances, combined with an unresponsive, factionalized government and abusive militias, facilitated the Taliban’s capture of Kunduz in September 2015. The fall of Kunduz raised questions regarding future political and security implications across the northeast region of Afghanistan. This Peace Brief highlights findings from interviews with a range of actors comparing what the government’s political and security response should look like and what it’s expected to look like, as well as offering recommendations for government and civil society.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, War, Governance, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
27. Institutions of the Russian fiscal federalism: 20 years of evolution
- Author:
- Elena Jarocinska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- In this brief, Elena Jarocinska summarizes the main thrust of Russian federal fiscal institutions and discusses their specific features. She describes the evolution of federal fiscal regulations since the establishment of the Russian federal state. As a conclusion, she offers the following policy recommendations: tax autonomy of subnational governments which is currently very limited should be increased; federal aid should be further formalized and made more transparent; regulations should not be changed from year to year to provide for a more stable environment; and subnational interests should be better protected at the institutional level.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Reform, Tax Systems, Institutions, Fiscal Policy, Trade, and Post-Socialist Economies
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Eastern Europe
28. Future scenarios for the development of the European labour force
- Author:
- Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- The future size and quality of the European labour force are important production factors for future economic growth in the region. The performance of many systems such as social security and health depends on the population of future potential tax payers. Older workers are an important and increasing share of the employment in Europe. Due to lower fertility and longer life expectancy, today, a larger than ever share of the population is over 50. Eurostat projections show that the share of people between the ages of 50 and 74 in the population aged 20-74 will increase in the EU27 countries from the current 40 per cent to 47 per cent in 2050. However, countries differ in terms of elderly activity. Existing studies show that this is related to various factors, including labour market institutions. As demographic ageing is expected to continue in the future, it is important to know more about these factors in order to recommend policies that could be efficient for the development of future labour markets and the economy as a whole. The aim of the described part of the project was to assess the impact of ageing on the labour market, especially on the structure of the labour force and labour productivity. We looked at this from various angles. First, we examined it via the determinants of the transition from work to retirement (see: Riedel and Hofer, 2013) with a broader analysis of non-labour market activities at older ages (Styczyńska et al., 2013). Then, we tried to answer the question about how individual productivity changes with age in different countries and if lifelong learning can contribute to higher labour productivity in the future (Ruzik-Sierdzińska et al., 2013). Finally, we looked at the demand for labour in the perspective of ageing societies, i.e. at employers' policies, attitudes and behaviours towards older workers and retirement (van Dalen et al., 2013).
- Topic:
- Demographics, Markets, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Public Policy, and Aging
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and European Union
29. The impact of the withdrawal from Afghanistan on Russia's security
- Author:
- Patrick Nopens
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- ISAF's withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 will directly impact the wider region. Not only is there a risk of instability spilling over to Central Asia, but the drawdown will also accelerate the ongoing shift in the balance of power in Central Asia towards China. Should a spillover occur, the burden will mainly fall on Russia and China. Russia will, however, only continue playing the dominant role in the security of the former Soviet Central Asia (FSCA) until China takes on responsibility for the security of its direct sphere of influence or "dingwei". Russia's Near Abroad, however, overlaps both with the EU's Eastern Neighbourhood in Europe and China's dingwei in Central Asia and the Far East. It is, therefore, necessary to approach Russian reactions to these encroachments on its historical spheres of influence in a single context, taking into account the interrelationship between these three.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia
30. Turkey's new focus on Africa: causes and challenges
- Author:
- Ali Bilgic and Daniela Nascimento
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Although Turkey had no past colonial involvement with African countries, there has been an increasing revival of Turkey's relation with the continent since the end of the 1990s, which reached a peak after 2005. From then on, along with a focus on Central Asia, the Balkans and the Middle East, Turkish foreign policy started shifting its focus to Africa, and as a new donor country Turkey's political and economic relations with sub-Saharan African countries have intensified significantly. This policy brief analyses and discusses the main economic, political, and strategic motivations behind these shifts and priorities, as well as some of the perceptions and current challenges this change in policy faces.
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, and Balkans
31. Cost and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries
- Author:
- Luca Barbone and Matthias Luecke
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- Migration from Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries has only become a large and important phenomenon over the last twenty years. At its heart, labour migration reflects entrepreneurial decisions by individuals and families looking to improve their lives while facing complex challenges and opportunities. In the past, the language of "migration management" was sometimes used to suggest that migrants and migration needed to be “managed” to achieve government objectives. By contrast, in adopting a migrant-centered perspective, our project aimed to understand, first, EaP migrants’ incentives and the effects of migration on migrants and their families, on non-migrants in the country of origin, and on residents of the destination country. Second, we investigated how labour migration is shaped by and interacts with a wide range of government policies and which policy interventions can enhance the benefits of migration for the affected groups.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Markets, Migration, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Innovation, and Social Services
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and European Union
32. Does Government Support for Private Innovation Matter? Firm Level Evidence from Turkey and Poland
- Author:
- Krzysztof Szczygielski, M. Teoman Pamukcu, Sinan Tandogan, and Wojciech Grabowski
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- Mediterranean and EU member countries consider enhancing innovation and R&D an important policy objective. In order to improve economic competitiveness and increase their citizens’ welfare, these countries have been formulating and implementing innovation policies. In recent years, the volume of resources allocated to such policies has considerably increased and the number of instruments used in this framework has widened. Nevertheless, a relatively limited number of studies have been conducted to assess the effectiveness of innovation policies in these countries and formulate proposals for those aspects of policies that are in contradiction with the aims.
- Topic:
- Government, Economy, Social Policy, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, Poland, Mediterranean, and European Union
33. Iran, Afghanistan, and South Asia: Resolving Regional Sources of Instability
- Author:
- Barbara Slavin and Fatemah Aman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- When compared to its often rocky relations with Arab countries to the west, the Islamic Republic of Iran has managed to retain largely cordial ties with its neighbors to the east. Historic linguistic, religious, and cultural connections have helped Iran keep its influence in South Asia and become a key trading partner despite US-led sanctions. Because of its strategic location on the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea, Iran provides India with access to Afghanistan and Central Asia that does not require transit through Pakistan. However, Iran and its neighbors, including Pakistan, face acute challenges such as scarce and poorly managed water resources, ethnic insurgencies, energy imbalances, and drug trafficking that require regional solutions.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iran, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Arabia, North America, and Persia
34. Changing Financial Flows During Afghanistan's Transition: The Political Economy Fallout
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Massive amounts of money flowing into Afghanistan since 2001 (foreign military spending, aid, domestic revenues, opium profits, land takeovers and development, informal mineral exploitation, theft of funds such as at Kabul Bank) have had profound political economy impacts, not least by further entrenching factionalized politics and fragmented patronage networks. The ongoing transition involving the drawdown of international troops and Afghan takeover of security responsibilities will be accompanied by drastic declines in international military expenditures and aid. Total resources for patronage will fall sharply; the Afghan government's share in remaining funds will increase; declines will be greatest at local levels, especially in insecure areas in the south/east which had heavy international military presence and high aid; and drug money will become increasingly important. At lower levels of patronage, competition over declining resources may intensify, so even in the absence of major armed conflict at the national level, localized conflicts may continue and even proliferate, aggravated by taking revenge and “settling accounts” by currently excluded and marginalized groups.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Economics, Islam, Foreign Aid, Narcotics Trafficking, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
35. Electoral Offensive: Taliban Planning for Afghanistan's 2014 National Elections
- Author:
- Antonio Giustozzi and Casey Garret Johnson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Taliban have more resources and are better organized to disrupt Afghanistan's 2014 national elections than was the case in any of the country's last four elections. Still, there are disagreements between insurgent leaders about carrying out a campaign of violence and intimidation. One group, led by Akhtar Mansur and tied to the Quetta Shura, favored, at least for some time, a more conciliatory approach and in the spring met informally with Afghan government officials to discuss allowing the polls to go forward. Another Group, led by Taliban military commander Zakir and the Peshawar Shura, favors disrupting the election. These upper-level divisions may have little consequence on the ground since rank-and-file fighters are either vowing to carry out attacks regardless or, as has happened in the past, may strike local deals with political entities to look the other way and allow voting to take place.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, War, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban
36. Banking on Growth: U.S. Support for Small and Medium Enterprises in Least-Developed Countries
- Author:
- Gayle Tzemach Lemmon
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The United States has made economic development a central tenet of its national security policy, alongside defense and diplomacy. One of the best and most cost-effective avenues for furthering economic development is investing in locally owned businesses, and yet the United States currently has no means for effectively and efficiently doing so. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have shown great potential in spurring economies, but their owners—especially women—are often unable to acquire the skills, resources, and support necessary to grow and sustain their businesses. Promoting local programs and global initiatives that encourage investments in SMEs and women entrepreneurs in lower-income countries will strengthen growth engines, diversify economies, improve communal well-being, stabilize societies, and accelerate progress toward international development goals. All of these results are in the interest of the United States, and could be achieved more quickly with the creation of an American development bank that aims to invest in and direct technical assistance to entrepreneurs in lower-income nations—the next-generation emerging markets. This can be done by expanding on the work already under way at the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC). Though several multilateral organizations have tackled pieces of this work, the United States has a unique role to play: investing in entrepreneurialism that creates jobs, bolsters the middle class, and spurs economic growth.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia
37. Assessing Turkey's Role in Somalia
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Turkey is the newest country to intervene in Somalia and its involvement has produced some positive results. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's courageous visit to Mogadishu in August 2011 at the height of the famine and his decision to open an embassy gave fresh impetus to efforts to establish lasting peace. Widespread Somali gratitude for Turkish humanitarian endeavours and the country's status as a Muslim and democratic state established Turkey as a welcome partner. Ankara has signalled it is in for the long haul. However, it must tread prudently, eschew unilateralism and learn lessons to avoid another failed international intervention. Over twenty years, many states and entities have tried to bring relief and secure peace in Somalia, often leaving behind a situation messier than that which they found. Ankara must appreciate it alone cannot solve the country's many challenges, but must secure the support and cooperation of both the Somali people and international community. Trying to go solo could backfire, hamper ongoing efforts and lose the immense good-will it has accumulated.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, Peace Studies, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Central Asia, Turkey, and Somalia
38. Kazakhstan and the United States: Twenty Years of Ambiguous Partnership
- Author:
- Sean R. Roberts
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In looking at twenty years of independence in the former Soviet region of Central Asia, Kazakhstan stands out in most respects as a stable oasis in a desert of uncertainty. It is the wealthiest country in Central Asia. It has not suffered any serious conflict since gaining independence, and the development of its economy, financial sector, and private sector has been steadily moving forward as has its engagement with the global economy. It is little wonder, therefore, that the most stable and fruitful bilateral partnership for the United States in the region over the past twenty years has been with the Republic of Kazakhstan. US-Kazakhstan relations have never experienced a significant crisis, and there has been ongoing cooperation between the two countries in a variety of areas, including nuclear non-proliferation, economic development, and energy extraction.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan
39. Kazakhstan's Energy Sector Since Independence: Two Decades of Growth and Challenges Ahead?
- Author:
- Katherine Hardin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since its independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has tripled its oil production, taking its place among the top twenty oil producers globally. The country currently produces more than 1.7 million barrels per day (mbd), an amount roughly equal to Libya's 2010 production. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan's oil reserves estimates have nearly doubled, placing it among the top five countries that will account for more than half of the global liquids capacity growth to 2020. Kazakhstan's considerable resource base has been a critical factor in this success, but the government of Kazakhstan under President Nursultan Nazarbayev has also made strategic choices to attract investment into the energy sector and has successfully crafted a "multivectoral" energy policy with its neighbors, particularly in the case of energy transportation. This paper highlights key stages in Kazakhstan's emergence as a major energy producer, but points to challenges that lie ahead as the country continues to increase oil and gas production and exports.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Libya
40. The Path Towards Kazakhstan's Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policy: Convergence of US-Kazakh Interests
- Author:
- Douglas Townsend
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Upon its conclusion in December 2011, the main part of the sixty-sixth United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 66) session adopted forty-seven resolutions and five decisions in its continuing effort to encourage a more flexible approach to revitalizing the multilateral disarmament process.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States and Central Asia
41. U.S.-Turkey Relations: A New Partnership
- Author:
- Stephen J. Hadley, Steven A. Cook, and Madeleine Albright
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Among the most important developments in international affairs of the past decade is the emergence of Turkey as a rising regional and global power. Turkey has long been an important country as a stalwart member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an aspirant to European Union (EU) membership, and an important link between the West and the East. Yet the changes in Turkey over the past decade have been so dramatic—with far-reaching political and economic reforms, significant social reforms, and an active foreign policy—that the country is virtually unrecognizable to longtime Turkey watchers. Today Turkey is more democratic, prosperous, and politically influential than it was five, ten, and fifteen years ago.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Democratization, Economics, Human Rights, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Middle East
42. Russia's Accession to the WTO: Impacts and Challenges
- Author:
- Irina Tochitskaya
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- On December 16th, 2011, an 18 year long negotiation process regarding Russia’s WTO membership was finally brought to an end. Undoubtedly, Russia’s WTO accession is an important event both for the global trade system and for the country. With Russia now in the club, the WTO will control over 97 per cent of global trade.
- Topic:
- Globalization, World Trade Organization, Trade, and Economic Integration
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Eastern Europe
43. Azerbaijan’s Fiscal Policy after the Oil Boom
- Author:
- Dmytro Boyarchuk
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- Azerbaijan’s current fiscal stance is quite strong; however, this stability is completely based on oil-related revenues. In the meantime, the situation with alternative sources of fiscal revenues is uncertain. A large part of fiscal management is built on opacity and an assessment of budget spending efficiency has never been done. It is likely that Azerbaijan will only be able to maintain its fiscal stability through the next ten years or so, i.e. until the end of the active oil-extraction period. In the more distant future, a substantial fiscal correction will be necessary.
- Topic:
- Oil, Reform, Budget, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Azerbaijan
44. Seven lessons from post-communist transition
- Author:
- Andrei Shleifer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- The 20th anniversary of the beginning of economic reforms in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union provides a good opportunity to comment on the lessons of transition says Andrei Shleifer, a Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He made a top seven list, which might be useful to future reformers. Some of the issues are relevant not only for communist countries; the problems of heavily statist economies are similar.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Reform, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Post-Soviet Europe
45. The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Education Services in Economies of the Former Soviet Union
- Author:
- Irina Sinitsina
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- The global economic crisis has created new challenges for education systems all over the world. The Former Soviet Union countries were confronted with an urgent issue, not necessarily specifically related to the crisis: to formulate and introduce new educational curricula, standards, and delivery models in order to adjust to the challenges imposed by the transition to the post-industrial stage of development. Irina Sinitsina summarised her chapter in the CASE Network Report No. 100 "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Education Services in Economies of the Former Soviet Union" in this E-brief. Using the available data, she comes to the conclusion that during the crisis, the education system of FSU countries were not dramatically affected by overall budget cuts.
- Topic:
- Education, Financial Crisis, Social Policy, Social Services, Labor Market, and Post-Soviet Space
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Caucasus, and Eastern Europe
46. The Political Feasibility of the Istanbul Canal Project
- Author:
- Mensur Akgün and Sylvia Tiryaki
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Popularly referred to as the “crazy” project, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Istanbul Canal Project has been debated vigorously since its proposal prior to the 2011 elections in the country. While some questioned its economic and ecological feasibility, others carried the discussion towards the Project's political implications. In addition to evaluating these debates, in this policy brief we discuss the Project through a historical perspective that includes the dynamics of the 1936 Montreux Convention. We argue that the feasibility of the Canal Project is valid only after certain changes are made in the application of the Montreux Convention. However, we conclude that this may lead to an outcome in which the signatories would question the legitimacy of the Convention under present conditions.
- Topic:
- Economics and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Turkey
47. Turkey's 2000/1 Banking Crisis: A Case Study for the Transformation of the Greek Finance?
- Author:
- Onur Bayramoğlu
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- On April 2010, recently after the eruption of the Greek crisis, an unexpected hand from Turkey reached to Greece. Proud with his country's last decade growth figures, Turkey's then Vice Prime Minister, Ali Babacan, paid a visit to Greece in order to share his country's reform period after its 2000/1 crisis, arguing that it could also be a case study for Greece. In this brief, I analyzed Greek and Turkish financial crises. Although it is a mere fact that the structural problems in Greek economy complicate the reform period in Greece, there are certain lessons that Greeks can learn from the Turkish experience. As Turks did after 2001, they should see the crisis as an opportunity to overcome the long time problems . In this regard, Greeks first and foremost should establish consensus among themselves, signaling to the markets that they are ready to face the burdens of the reform period.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Greece
48. A Place at the Table: Safeguarding women's rights in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Nemat, Orzala Ashraf and Louise Hancock
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Ten years on from the start of the western intervention in Afghanistan, Afghan women are facing an uncertain future. Women have strived for, and made important gains, since the fall of the Taliban in 2001, including in political participation and access to education, but these gains are fragile and reversible.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban
49. The Turkish Internal Reform and Foreign Policy Shift: Implications for the Cyprus Talks
- Author:
- Chrysostomos Pericleous
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Internal social change in Turkey, inaugurated by the liberalization of the economy in the 1980s and given a new impetus by Turkey's EU accession path during the AKP governments, has engineered a momentous reform process, which marks the beginning of a new post-Kemalist era in the country. Steady economic growth, along with democratization, brings new social forces to the forefront of the political arena and makes them stakeholders in the policymaking processes. As a result, one can observe a substantive shift in Turkey's foreign policy, from the “hard power” model of the Kemalist era governed by the siege syndrome, to the “soft power” approach of Ahmet Davutoğlu's doctrine of “nil problems with neighbors”, governed by a feeling of confidence that liberates the country from past obsessions. This foreign policy shift removes the Cyprus problem from the sphere of the untouchable grand national issues as well as from its historical context, and leads to a rationalization that allows for a compromise win-win settlement. Within this framework, Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan, having won a new mandate with a larger ever-popular support, has a free hand to take the initiative for a lasting settlement of the protracted Cyprus conflict. The practical recommendations made in this regard constitute substantive political actions, which, if materialized, would decisively contribute towards an early settlement.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Turkey
50. Kyrgyzstan: A Hollow Regime Collapses
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A swift, violent rebellion swept into the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek in early April 2010, sparked by anger at painful utility price increases and the corruption that was the defining characteristic of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's rule. In less than two days the president had fled. Some 85 people were killed and the centre of the capital was looted. The thirteen-member provisional government now faces a daunting series of challenges. Bakiyev leaves be- hind a bankrupt state hollowed out by corruption and crime. Economic failure and collapsing infrastructure have generated deep public resentment. If the provisional government moves fast to assert its power, the risks of major long-term violence are containable: there are no signs of extensive support for Bakiyev or of a North-South split. The speed with which the Bakiyev administration collapsed is a salutary reminder of the risks of over emphasising Western security concerns in framing policy towards the region.
- Topic:
- International Affairs, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan
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