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2. Ethnic Divisions and Ensuring Stability in Kazakhstan: A Guide for U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Suzanne Loftus
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- This brief assesses ethnic divisions in Kazakhstan, analyzes the potential risks of ethnic and geopolitical tension and makes recommendations for U.S. policy. Kazakhstan’s current approach to managing its internal divides and overall stability is assessed and drivers of potential risk are evaluated. Due to renewed cold war tensions with China and Russia, the United States must resist any temptation to become involved in Kazakhstan’s internal politics and refrain from any efforts to sway Kazakhstan to ally itself with the West. This would only cause internal instability and hostile relations with its neighbors, Russia and China. Given Kazakhstan’s potential for domestic strife, U.S. interests are best served by a restrained approach to the country that better preserves its internal and external stability. Kazakhstan’s vast land mass and sparse population leave the country vulnerable to potential external threats. Kazakhstan borders Russia and China, its strongest security and economic partners respectively. These two powers are very close while the United States is far and consequently plays a relatively minor role in the country. The United States can and should, however, engage economically with Kazakhstan to support its development.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political stability, Ethnicity, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and United States of America
3. Steppe change: How Russia’s war on Ukraine is reshaping Kazakhstan
- Author:
- Marie Dumoulin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine came as an additional shock for Kazakhstan, which had already experienced serious domestic unrest in January 2022. Kazakhstan has consistently distanced itself from Russia’s aggression and diversified its relationships with various countries, while preserving its bilateral relationship with Moscow. The war has further highlighted the need for political reforms in Kazakhstan, yet complicated the government’s ability and willingness to implement them. Kazakhstan is now cautiously navigating political change both domestically and in its foreign policy. The EU has shown interest in engaging more with Kazakhstan. It can help the country to overcome this critical juncture by encouraging and supporting its genuine domestic transformation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan
4. Turkey in Central Asia: Possibilities and limits of a greater role
- Author:
- Toni Alaranta and Kristiina Silvan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s long-term search for strategic autonomy, shifting global power relations, and Central Asian governments’ desire to foster multi-vector foreign policies have prompted Turkey to successfully intensify its activities in Central Asia. From the 1990s onwards, Turkey’s activism in Central Asia has strengthened cultural, trade, and diplomatic relations. Its multilateral coordinating body, the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States, is being further institutionalized into the Organization of Turkic States. Turkey’s potential for acquiring a greater role in the region is limited. Its economic engagement remains modest, and Central Asian states’ responses to the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan indicate that Russia and China remain the region’s preferred security partners. Although Turkey, China, Russia, and other external actors compete in Central Asia, no full-fledged confrontation has taken place in the region so far. Turkey’s new initiatives are unlikely to change this dynamic, as long as they are conducted in the spirit of inclusive multipolarity.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, and Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Asia
5. Leadership successions in Central Asia: Elite pacts, dynasties and revolutions
- Author:
- Kristiina Silvan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Despite their shared communist past, similarities in political systems, and record of “authoritarian learning” from one another, there is significant diversity in how Central Asian regimes have prepared and undergone leadership successions. Authoritarian states, particularly those led by personalist rulers, face instability during moments of leadership succession. Sometimes the turbulence develops into a full-blown succession crisis characterized by increased elite contestation and popular protests. In Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, personalist leaders died in office and the elites chose a successor after negotiations. Still, most regional leaders have sought to pass power gradually to a designated successor, either a familial or non-familial member of the elite, with varying degrees of success. China and Russia have been directly and indirectly involved in the transitions. Moscow has been particularly involved in the short-term de-escalation of succession crises in Kyrgyzstan in 2020 and Kazakhstan in 2022. Russia’s war in Ukraine has changed the context of Central Asian successions, which means that future transitions will take place in uncharted territory.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Succession, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Asia
6. Developments in Kazakhstan 2022: Causes and Consequences
- Author:
- Yurii Poita
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- In January 2022, mass protests arose in Kazakhstan due to an increase in gas prices for cars, which instantly covered almost the entire country. From the initial demands of the demonstrators in Zhanaozen in the southwest of the country they quickly transformed into anti-government ones: the protesters demanded the resignation of the government, a change in the current political regime and the departure of the first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The willingness of the Kazakh authorities to make concessions and satisfy part of the demands did not stop the protests: they expanded significantly both quantitatively and geographically and in a short time the protest was marginalized and transformed into pogroms and looting, especially in the city of Almaty in southern Kazakhstan.
- Topic:
- Governance, Social Movement, Protests, and Repression
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and Asia
7. If Russia Uses Migration as a Weapon, Europeans Should Respond In Kind
- Author:
- Alia Fakhry, Roderick Parkes, and András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Around 442,000 people have so far fled Ukraine – not just to the EU, but also to neighbors like Moldova. This is a humanitarian issue, and should not be conflated with “migrant instrumentalization” (MI), whereby a state pushes people across a border to coerce the EU to change position. Yet Russia is likely to employ MI in this way, especially if it moves deep into Western Ukraine. Drawing on an in-depth study, we show how the EU can meet this specific threat.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Ukraine
8. Sea Change for Europe’s Security Order: Three Future Scenarios
- Author:
- Christian Mölling, Tyson Barker, David Hagebölling, Afra Herr, and Kai Kornhuber
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The war of aggression that Russia launched against Ukraine in February has destroyed the European security order. The German government has defined this moment as a sea change (Zeitenwende) for its foreign and security policy. It still must envisage and shape a new order. Key factors are whether Europe will be united in strategic policy areas, and how Russia will position itself.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Science and Technology, European Union, and Geoeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe
9. Development of the IT Industry and Structural Transformation: Focused on IT Cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
- Author:
- Minhyeon Jeong, Jiyoung Min, and Dongyeon Jeong
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This study was designed as a primary study to analyze the economic significance and potential of cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the IT sector, and to derive implications for new directions between Korea and the three countries with the advent of the fourth industrial revolution era. The goal of the study is to discuss what the development of the IT industry means for the three economies, examine the characteristics of each country, and gain policy implications on how cooperation with Korea should proceed in the future. To this end, this study is consisted of the following four components. First, the economic significance of IT technology cooperation with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan is viewed from the perspective of structural transformation. Second, the effect of IT cooperation between Korea and Russia on the Russian economy is quantitatively estimated through the analytical framework of structural transformation. Third, to supplement the limitations of theoretical discussions and derive customized cooperation directions for each country, the current status and policies of the IT industry in the three countries are examined in detail. Fourth, IT technology subsectors promising for cooperation between Korea and Russia are identified, from the patent citation analysis and network analysis.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Science and Technology, Industry, and Information Technology
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan
10. Tracking the Digital Component of the BRI in Central Asia, Part One: Exporting “Safe Cities” to Uzbekistan
- Author:
- Sergey Sukhankin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Following the 2013 announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) at a speech given by People’s Republic of China President Xi Jinping during visit to Kazakhstan, Central Asia has been a key regional priority and an indispensable element for the success of the BRI as a whole (PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs, September 7, 2013). Over the years, the BRI—nebulously defined from the start—has come to be associated with a variety of policy and investment programs. A previous series of articles has covered security-related developments associated with the BRI aimed at maintaining stability and protecting economic investments across the region (China Brief July 15; October 19; August 12).China has also begun to expand its export of digital infrastructure and surveillance technology under the umbrella of the BRI. The digitalization strategy—ostensibly aimed at promoting the international integration of technology with infrastructure and finance as well as spreading digital innovation abroad—is often referred to as the Digital Silk Road (DSR, 数字丝绸之路, shuzi sichou zhi lu). The high-level emphasis on promoting the DSR has only grown under the COVID-19 pandemic (CGTN, June 10, 2020). Across Central Asia, the DSR has been primarily represented by efforts to export China’s Smart/Safe City programs, which allow governments to collect, store, process and analyze vast amounts of personal information. The promotion of the so-called “informatization” of society (信息化, xinxi hua) and data commodification are yet more driving forces behind China’s DSR ambitions in Central Asia.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Surveillance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- China, Central Asia, Asia, and Uzbekistan
11. Regional Financial Cooperation in East Asia from a New Perspective
- Author:
- Sungbae An and Subin Kim
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Following the Asian financial crisis of 1998, there was a need to improve regional financial cooperation, including liquidity support. The Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (hereinafter, CMIM) and the Asian Bond Market Initiative (hereafter, ABMI) are two of the outcomes, but it is difficult to find countries that are actively using these mechanisms. Against this backdrop, we will first examine the limitations of existing systems and propose ways to overcome those limitations, as well as new ways to strengthen East Asian financial cooperation. We suggest three ways to strengthen financial coopera-tion in East Asia from a new perspective: 1) monetary cooperation through Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) 2) establishment of development financial institution in Northeast Asia 3) financial cooperation with Central Asia and Mongolia. Of course, more precise planning is required to implement these alternatives, and it is also recognized that the topics covered in this study represent only a subset of regional financial and monetary cooperation. However, by overcoming the limitations thus far, it is hoped that it can be a contribution that provides at least a glimmer of thought, which can hopefully become more concrete in future studies.
- Topic:
- Development, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and East Asia
12. 2021 Resource Governance Index: Azerbaijan (Oil and Gas)
- Author:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Azerbaijan’s oil and gas sector scored 56 points out of 100 in the 2021 Resource Governance Index (RGI), up by nine points since the 2017 RGI. The country’s ability to realize value from the sector and its overall “enabling environment” deteriorated since the last assessment, but revenue management improved by 35 points and now places in the “good” performance band. Key messages: Governance of licensing received a “failing” 11 points, due to a lack of rules and disclosures in the licensing process, as well issues regarding disclosure of officials’ financial interests and identification of the beneficial owners of companies involved in the sector. The governance of local impacts received a “failing” score, with issues both in terms of the laws and disclosures of environmental and social impact assessments and environmental mitigation plans. SOCAR, the state-owned oil producer, scored in the lower end of the “satisfactory” performance band, with commodity sales rules and disclosures especially problematic. The implementation of fiscal rules and their monitoring boosted the national budgeting subcomponent score by 37 points since the 2017 RGI. SOFAZ, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, received a “good” score due to improvements in both the legal framework and disclosures.
- Topic:
- Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Azerbaijan
13. Russian policy towards Central Asia 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union: Sphere of influence shrinking?
- Author:
- Kristiina Silvan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia views Central Asia as its sphere of influence and attempts to keep the five post-Soviet countries, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, in its geopolitical orbit. Central Asian countries’ dependency on Russia is decreasing, albeit at a different pace in different policy spheres and geographical areas. This variation depends upon factors ranging from Moscow’s priorities, the presence and capability of Russia and other actors, and Central Asian domestic issues. Russia’s policy in Central Asia is rooted in bilateral relations, but from the early 2000s onwards, Moscow has sought to integrate the region’s states into multilateral organizations that it leads, primarily in the spheres of economy and security. Russian influence in the region is greatest in the security sphere and, due to the rise of China, smallest in the economic sector. People-to-people contacts remain strong as a result of the common Soviet past and current migration flows. Central Asian countries share Russia’s authoritarian outlook on politics. Russia remains a powerful player in Central Asia, but Moscow’s lack of a forward-looking strategy and its current great-power posturing threaten its dominance in the future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Post-Soviet Space, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia
14. Moscow’s Disinformation Offensive During COVID-19: The Case of Lithuania
- Author:
- Richard Weitz and Aurimas Lukas Pieciukaitis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Russian media outlets have waged a comprehensive disinformation campaign throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Both the US State Department’s Global Engagement Center (GEC) and the EU External Action Service (EEAS) have identified numerous stories in Kremlinlinked accounts that have sought to discredit the policies and performance of Western democracies, while conversely painting Russian actions in a most positive light. According to the GEC, throughout the pandemic, “the full Russian ecosystem of official state media, proxy news sites, and social media personas have been pushing multiple disinformation narratives.”
- Topic:
- Health Care Policy, Media, Repression, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, and Lithuania
15. Forgotten Ground Zeros: Local populations exposed to radiation from former nuclear test sites
- Author:
- Magdalena Stawkowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Around the world, hundreds of thousands of people live in and around former nuclear test sites. Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan provides both a home and a livelihood for an estimated 50,000 people, but security measures are not yet sufficient to protect them from radioactive waste from the past. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ Establish local education programs to prevent unintentional exposure to residual radioactivity ■ Encourage local authorities to promote radiation-safety programs ■ Cordon off and secure unmarked radioactive areas on nuclear test sites ■ Carry out regular radiation monitoring in villages close to nuclear test sites, as well as of livestock
- Topic:
- Health, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Kazakhstan
16. Analysis of Economic Cooperation between Kazakhstan and South Korea
- Author:
- Yessengali Oskenbayev
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This article investigates the potential direction of the Kazakh-Korean economic relationship. The two countries have become major partners in their economic relationship. It is important for Kazakhstan to establish economic relations with South Korea, to diversify its economy. Kazakhstan’s economy is strongly dominated by mineral resources extractive sectors, and the country’s rapid economic growth during the period from 2000 to 2007, and afterward due to oil price increases, was not well translated into substantial growth of non-extractive sectors. Kazakhstan could employ strategies applied by Korean policymakers to sustain business and entrepreneurship development.
- Topic:
- Development, Bilateral Relations, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, Diversification, Trade, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Asia, and South Korea
17. Displacement and the Vulnerability to Mobilize for Violence: Evidence from Afghanistan
- Author:
- Sadaf Lakhani and Rahmatullah Amiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Forced displacement affects over 70 million people worldwide and is among the most pressing humanitarian and development challenges today. This report attempts to ascertain whether a relationship exists between displacement in Afghanistan and vulnerability to recruitment to violence by militant organizations. The report leverages an understanding of this relationship to provide recommendations to government, international donors, and others working with Afghanistan’s displaced populations to formulate more effective policies and programs.
- Topic:
- Development, Taliban, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, Displacement, Violence, and Mobility
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and Central Asia
18. Preventing Violent Extremism While Promoting Human Rights: Toward a Clarified UN Approach
- Author:
- Chuck Thiessen
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- In response to the threat of violent extremism, the UN has adopted a comprehensive approach that involves both aligning ongoing interventions with the goals of preventing violent extremism (PVE) and implementing PVE-specific programming. These initiatives aspire to use human rights-based approaches as opposed to hard-security counterterrorism responses. To date, however, there has been inadequate research on how the UN and other international organizations can promote human rights as part of their PVE programming. This issue brief introduces findings on the strategic shift of UN peacebuilding interventions toward PVE and the barriers these interventions face to protecting human rights, drawing on research conducted in Kyrgyzstan. It concludes that PVE approaches to peacebuilding are fundamentally ambiguous, which may be hindering promotion of human rights. These ambiguities lie both in the terminology and strategies of intervention and in the drivers of radicalization and violent extremism. By clarifying its approach to PVE, the UN can dilute the inherent contradiction in its dual role as a critic and supporter of host states and reduce the odds that its interventions legitimize human rights violations.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, United Nations, and Violent Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Global Focus
19. Insurgent Bureaucracy: How the Taliban Makes Policy
- Author:
- Ashley Jackson and Rahmatullah Amiri
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The system of shadow Taliban governance and the experiences of civilians subject to it are well documented. The policies that guide this governance and the factors that contribute to them, however, are not. This report examines how the Taliban make and implement policy. Based on more than a hundred interviews and previously unreleased Taliban documents, this report offers rare insight into Taliban decision-making processes and the factors that influence them.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Governance, Taliban, and Bureaucracy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and Central Asia
20. Engaging with Non-state Armed Groups to Protect Civilians: A Pragmatic Approach for UN Peace Operations
- Author:
- Ralph Mamiya
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Engaging non-state armed groups (NSAGs) is an essential tool for the protection of civilians (POC), a priority mandate and core objective for peace operations. Beyond the use of force to prevent or stop armed groups from threatening local populations, multidimensional missions can use a wide range of unarmed strategies, such as dialogue and engagement, to counter hostilities from non-state actors. This paper looks at how, when, and why UN missions engage with NSAGs. It gives an overview of current practice, drawing on the experiences of the missions in Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mali. It then examines the risks of engaging NSAGs and how POC mandates can help missions navigate these risks. Finally, it looks at peace operations’ unique capacities to engage with NSAGs and how best to leverage them. Civilian protection is ever more urgent, and engaging NSAGs is crucial to this work. A pragmatic approach, anchored in POC considerations, can help guide missions through potentially polarizing debates and safeguard UN principles while simultaneously allowing them to adapt more effectively to the challenges they face.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Non State Actors, Peacekeeping, Armed Forces, and Civilians
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, Central Asia, Mali, Central African Republic, and Congo