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151. The Doha Round after Hong Kong

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Trade ministers from member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) convened in Hong Kong in December 2005 to jump-start the flagging Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. The Hong Kong ministerial was not a complete bust. But ministers accomplished only the minimum necessary to keep the Doha Round moving forward—toward an undetermined and probably distant conclusion.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

152. What Could Go Wrong?

Author:
Harry Harding
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China has done remarkably well in its development over the last twenty-five years. It has achieved and sustained high rates of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. It has achieved a significant place in the international economy. It is widely regarded as a major power, not only in Asia but also increasingly on a global stage. Looking ahead, however, things could go wrong – possibly quite seriously wrong – for China, and if China experiences serious problems, its size and its expanded role in the world mean that there could be serious consequences for the broader international community as well.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

153. China Succeeding Beyond Expectations

Author:
Albert Kiedel
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with nine-percent growth over the next five years, China in 2010 will still be at a relatively low level of performance, both overall and in per-capita terms. But if sustaining nine-percent growth to 2010 means that China has launched on-going reforms that will continue to engineer institutional changes needed for a market economy's successful commercial and political management, then the resulting successful development trajectory in the rest of the century will generate profound and, from today's perspective, unexpected consequences.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

154. Comments on China as a Regional Player

Author:
Edward J. Lincoln
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China ought to be able to produce a relatively high economic growth rate over at least the next decade. There are a number of problems confronting the economy, but one of the great lessons of the past half-century of world economic growth is how much growth can result even when economies have considerable institutional flaws. Economists usually speak about the need to get the “fundamentals” right to produce economic growth, but we should also keep in mind that nations need not get have a perfect set of institutions and rules to generate growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

155. Taiwan In Search of a Strategic Consensus

Author:
Banning Garrett, Franklin Kramer, and Jonathan M. Adams
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
At the beginning of 2006, Taiwan is confronted with difficult choices that it currently seems unprepared to face. Cross-Strait tensions have diminished in the last year and Taiwan's economy has grown at an annualized rate of about 3.6 percent, which is respectable if not robust by East Asian standards. Taiwan, however, also faces an East Asian future which likely includes an increasingly important role for its relations with the Mainland as China becomes an ever more important economic and political factor regionally and globally.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, East Asia, and Asia

156. Fiscal Policy for Poverty Reduction, Reconstruction, and Growth

Author:
Matthew Smith, Alan Roe, and Tony Addison
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
An effective state is able to mobilize revenue and spend it on infrastructure, services, and public goods that both enhance human capital and the well-being of communities (especially the poor), as well as stimulating investment and employment creation by the private sector. An effective state also manages public finance to ensure that macroeconomic balance is maintained—with policy neither too restrictive to discourage private investment and growth, nor too accommodative to create high inflation and crowd out private investment. Fiscal issues are therefore at the heart of the state's role in the development process and failure in this policy area—whether it is in taxation, public expenditures, or in managing the fiscal deficit and public debt—can quickly undermine growth and poverty reduction. Fiscal weakness can also be fatal to social peace when one or more ethnic, religious, or regional groups are taxed unfairly—or receives too little in the allocation of public spending.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

157. Banking Crises in East Asia: The Price Tag of Liberalization?

Author:
Ilan Noy
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The banking crises that swept through East Asia in 1997– 1998 set off dramatic recessions in the affected countries and imposed heavy costs on the domestic taxpayers. Fear of further crises prompted searches causes and early warning signs. It soon became apparent that liberalization the domestic financial sectors of the countries in crises contributed to genesis of these crises, but policymakers, regulators, and economists disagree about the reason for this. Initial scrutiny fell on unregulated international capital flows, but a comprehensive study suggests that liberalization can to financial instability either because of insufficient regulation of the financial sector or because of erosion of previously granted monopolies of existing banks. These possibilities suggest varying policy implications for the current state domestic financial systems in East Asia, including the challenges inherent opening up ChinaÂ's banking system to foreign competition as mandated in China–World Trade Organization accession agreement.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

158. The United States as an Asian Power: Realism or Conceit?

Author:
M. Taylor Fravel and Richard J. Samuels
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
The long history of U.S. foreign policy is punctuated by axiomatic truths that have bordered on conceit—e.g., the virtues of isolation, America's manifest destiny, and our benign, democratizing presence in world affairs. Strategists have lurched from truth to truth across the centuries, often without sufficient reflection and learning. Today the United States is operating with an axiomatic idea about its place in and of Asia. U.S. foreign policymakers—and U.S. foreign policy wonks—intone the mantra: “The United States is an Asian power.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Asia

159. Agricultural Policy Reform in China

Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
China is the world's sixth largest economy and its most populous country, home to 1.3 billion people or 21% of the Earth's total population. But it faces a major challenge in providing its people with food – China has only 10% of the world's arable land and only one quarter of the average world water resources per person.
Topic:
Agriculture, Civil Society, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

160. China's Governance in Transition

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
China's economic reforms over the past two decades have brought remarkable growth, the development of a vibrant private sector and significant reform of the state-owned sector. Private businesses now represent some 57% of GDP, and productivity in the state-owned sector has improved significantly. However, a number of problems threaten to undermine prospects for sustainable growth. These notably include social tensions, partly due to increasing inequality within society and massive migration to the cities, but also linked to corruption, insufficient public services and rising unemployment as millions of workers have been laid off in the reform of the state-owned sector, while agriculture still displays huge structural under-employment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

161. Economic Survey of China, 2005

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
China's economic growth has averaged 9½% per cent over the past two decades. The rapid pace of economic change is likely to be sustained for some time. These gains have contributed not only to higher personal incomes, but also to a significant reduction in poverty. At the same time, the economy has become substantially integrated with the world economy. A large part of these gains have come through profound shifts in government policies. Reforms have allowed market prices and private investors to play a significant role in production and trade.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
China and Asia

162. Reading Russia Right

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After the fall of Communism, Russia reverted to czarism. But more importantly, Russia embraced capitalism. Although not democratic, Russia is largely free. Property rights are more deeply anchored than they were five years ago, and the once-collectivist society is going private. Indeed, private consumption is the main driver of economic growth. Russia's future now depends heavily on how fast a middle class—a self-identified group with personal stakes in having a law-based government accountable to tax payers—can be created. The West needs to take the long view, stay engaged, and maximize contacts, especially with younger Russians.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

163. China's Currency: Not the Problem

Author:
Albert Keidel
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In Washington, politicians and pundits have settled on a single magical solution for the country's economic ills: getting China to revalue its currency, the RMB. By any reasonable economic measure, however, the RMB is not undervalued. China does have a trade surplus with the United States, but it has a trade deficit with the rest of the world. And China's accumulation of dollar reserves is not the result of trade surpluses, but of large investment inflows caused in part by speculators' betting that China will yield to U.S. pressure. Focusing on China's currency is a distraction. If the United States wants to improve its economy for the long haul, it had best look elsewhere beginning with raising the productivity of American workers.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Washington, and Asia

164. A Better Way to Support Middle East Reform

Author:
Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), an important component of the Bush administration's policy of promoting Middle East reform, is falling short. MEPI should be relaunched as a private foundation funded by the government, akin to the Asia Foundation or the Eurasia Foundation. Such a relaunch would permit MEPI to develop greater expertise in the region, use more flexible, effective aid methods, and gain some independence from other U.S. programs and policies that serve conflicting ends. The restructuring of MEPI should be part of a broader set of measures to establish a more visible, coherent institutional policy structure to pursue the critical goal of fundamental political and economic change in the Middle East.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Middle East, and Asia

165. Is the IMF business model still valid?

Author:
Ángel Ubide
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Since the Asian crisis, the IMF has undergone a deep process of soul searching, trying to extract lessons from the experience. External criticism has been abundant, and basically all three of the IMF's main areas of work – surveillance, crisis prevention and resolution, and poverty reduction – have been called into question. Several years later, there is a feeling that not much has been achieved, and key questions remain unanswered. As the world business cycle matures, and thus the likelihood of further crises slowly increases, it is critical for the stability of the world financial system to discuss what the IMF's business model should look like.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

166. A Currency Basket for East Asia, Not Just China

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
China recently announced that it is adopting a basket of currencies as the peg for its exchange rate instead of the US dollar. This announcement raises questions of how such a system works, whether other East Asian countries would be advised to follow China in adopting a basket numeraire, and whether it would be advantageous to these countries if they were all to adopt the same basket. This brief answers these questions.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

167. China and the World Economy Workshop. Conference Summary

Author:
Robert Kapp
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Peter Bottelier, the principal presenter of this topic, opened by noting that much discussion now surrounds the evolving “new line” embodied in China's economic plans for the next five years. The three agricultural questions, self-innovation, regional adjustment, opening up of a win-win “harmonious society,” and economizing on energy use: what do these and other much-discussed new terms really mean?
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

168. China as Producer: Chinese Industry After 25 Years of Reform

Author:
Thomas Rawski
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Beginning with the start of reform in the late 1970s, China's industry has recorded impressive growth of output, labor productivity, and exports as well as dramatic upgrading of the quality and variety of output. These gains have occurred in spite of difficulties arising from lethargic state enterprises, inadequate corporate governance, excessive official intervention, corruption, and weak financial institutions.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

169. China as Consumer

Author:
Kenneth Lieberthal
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This article seeks to examine two key issues that will be major drivers of consumption in China over the coming five years: urbanization and environmental amelioration. Whether the issues identified will be the largest factors over this time frame remains unclear, but each of these two areas warrants considerable attention as a very significant contributor to the future of consumer demand in China.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

170. China as Employer and Consumer: Economic Outlook for the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010)

Author:
Arthur R. Kroeber
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China's impressive economic growth of the past quarter century (9.4 percent average annual real GDP growth between 1980 and 2004, by official figures) is not miraculous; on the contrary, it can largely be explained by conventional models of economic development.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

171. Hu Jintao's Outbox

Author:
Joseph Fewsmith
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China has now sustained two and a half decades of high-speed growth. This growth has been even faster with regard to exports and China's role in international trade. Domestically, a capitalist tendency seems to be everywhere, while internationally the rise of China, whether peaceful or not, seems – at least to some – to threaten Western jobs, prosperity, and the international order. The focus of this paper, however, is not this question of whether or how China poses a threat to the West but rather an old (but new) question of how this “capitalist” conversion is compatible with the continued rule of a communist party. This is a question of considerable practical import, as people contemplate what the continued growth of the Chinese economy might mean for the political stability of that country, but it is also a question of considerable theoretical import: Leninist parties that sought to “include” external interests, it was argued, are on the way to collapse. It is only a matter of time. The time frame for China has lasted longer than theoreticians had supposed, though they might yet prove to be right – perhaps the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has lasted longer than people imagined but it might still be on the road to collapse. This point of view would find supporters, both in the West and in China, but even if they prove right, it is important to inquire more deeply about what is going on in China, whether institutions are being created, and if so whether they might provide a foundation for a post-communist China or whether they suggest a more chaotic future.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

172. Economic survey of Korea, 2004

Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Korea has been one of the fastest growing economies in the OECD area over the past five years, with an annual growth rate of about 6 per cent. Such rapid growth, which has lifted per capita income to two-thirds of the OECD average, reflects Korea's underlying dynamism and its progress in implementing a wide-ranging reform programme in the wake of the 1997 crisis. However, the recession in 2003 – which was due in part to structural problems in the labour market and in the corporate and financial sectors – indicates that the reform agenda is unfinished. Sustaining rapid growth over the medium term as the contribution from inputs of labour and capital slows requires further progress in structural reform, particularly in the labour market and in the corporate and financial sectors, accompanied by appropriate macroeconomic policies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Asia and Korea

173. India's energy needs

Author:
Nick Hordern
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
India's exploding demand for energy is confronting New Delhi with two important dilemmas, one internal and one external. India's internal dilemma is that to satisfy its energy needs, India must not only expand but also renovate its energy sector, a huge task. Moreover, New Delhi must balance accelerating the necessary reform of this sector with the need to avoid alienating important domestic constituencies. The external dilemma derives from the fact that India will only be able to meet part of its increased energy demand from its own domestic resources, and therefore will be increasingly forced to rely on energy imports. India is trying to secure its energy supplies in a hostile geo-political climate, since New Delhi's parlous relations with its neighbours make energy cooperation difficult. The resultant fears regarding the vulnerability of India's external sources of energy chime with a core principle of New Delhi's political culture, swadeshi (self-sufficiency), whose influence, while waning, retains its potency. Concerns regarding energy security are particularly prevalent in the case of oil, where India's dependence on imports is becoming acute. The proximity of the Persian Gulf to India's industrialised northwest makes it the main source of growing oil imports. But this in turn increases India's reliance on the unstable Gulf. In order to reduce this risk New Delhi will seek out oil from new energy provinces in the Atlantic Basin, Sudan, Russia and South East Asia. It will also turn to a new energy source - gas - and more imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be one result. India's energy needs have implications for Australia. India's growing demand for energy will see coal continue to dominate the energy mix, and as a result India's demand for imported coking coal, including from Australia, is also set to grow. At the same time, India's quest for diversity of supply means that at least some of India's increased LNG imports are likely to be Australian.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Sudan, India, Asia, New Delhi, Australia, and Southeast Asia

174. The international economy in 2003: managing economic imbalances in an integrated world

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This Issues Brief suggests that a key theme over the past year has been the management of external imbalances in a world economy that is not only increasingly integrated but which is simultaneously undergoing a sustained geographic shift in the distribution of economic weight towards Asia. Using this theme as an organising principle, it reviews several major economic developments including US current account adjustment, international exchange rate adjustment in response to that process, growing Sino-US trade tensions, the increasing focus on international outsourcing and the stresses facing the current multilateral trading round. The Brief concludes by arguing that many of these same themes will influence international economic prospects over the coming year.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

175. What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Rarely has the outlook for the Chinese economy been so contested. The financial press widely quotes three alternative perspectives on the short-and medium-term outlook. One school argues that the Chinese government's recent efforts to rein in overly rapid growth are working and that the economy is now on a glide path to what is referred to as a soft landing. While “soft landing” is usually not fully defined, its chief feature in this case is that Chinese economic growth slows modestly from its current pace of 9 to 10 percent to around 8 percent and that the rate of job creation does not slow enough to constitute a major political challenge for the regime. At the other end of the spectrum is the hard landing school, which argues that the authorities to date have not tightened sufficiently, that loan and investment growth remain excessive, and that the authorities soon will be forced to take more drastic action that will trigger a sharp correction. Finally, the no landing school argues that China's efforts to slow growth modestly are misguided since the economy was not overheating in 2003 and early 2004. In this view, China is in the early stages of a secular boom that has several additional years to run.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

176. Asian Oil Market Outlook: Role of the Key Players

Author:
Jeffrey Brown and Kang Wu
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Asia Pacific region's dynamic oil market is marked by strong growth in consumption, declining regional oil production, and over capacity in its highly competitive oil-refining sector. Its "key players" are China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea—a group that includes the region's five top consumers and three of its major producers—and developments in these countries will have commercial and strategic implications for the whole region. On the consumption side, Japan's slow growth in demand has failed to dampen regional growth, which is now driven by China and India's fast growing thirst for oil. On the supply side, Indonesia's inevitable transition to a net oil importer highlights the trend toward growing dependence on Middle East oil, which already comprises 42–90 percent of imports among the key players. In response to this trend, China, Japan, and South Korea are pushing to acquire overseas oil reserves, with Japan and China already locked in a fierce competition for projected Russian supplies—a type of struggle that will likely become more commonplace.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, and South Korea

177. The Move to Preferential Trade in the Western Pacific Rim

Author:
John Ravenhill
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Western Pacific Rim states have been slow to participate in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). In the past four years, however, more than 40 PTAs involving these economies have been proposed or are being implemented. For the first time, Japan and China have either signed or are negotiating bilateral or plurilateral agreements. The new interest in PTAs reflects the perception that they have been successful in other parts of the world, and is reinforced by dissatisfaction with the region's existing trade groupings. Although arguments can be made in favor of PTAs, they amplify political considerations in trade agreements, may adversely affect the political balance in participating countries, impose costs on nonparticipants, and deplete scarce negotiating resources. Nevertheless, the number of western Pacific Rim states participating in PTAs continues to climb. Northeast Asian countries have been following Europe in exploiting loopholes in WTO rules on PTAs to protect their noncompetitive sectors, thereby strengthening their political positions, which will likely make global liberalization more difficult.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

178. Good Intentions Will Not Pave The Road to Peace

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The Afghan people have been promised a lot in the last two years. New rules for a new world would be written in their country. Regime change would deliver Afghans, finally, from oppression and violence, while a Marshall Plan would give them a chance to rebuild their lives.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

179. Revaluing the renminbi: a case of 'déjà vu all over again'?

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
There are strong parallels between today's US-China tensions over trade and US-Japan economic relations in the 1980s.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

180. Clean Air for Asia - China - India - Japan - United States Cooperation to Reduce Air Pollution in China and India

Author:
Richard L. Lawson, John R. Lyman, Donald L. Guertin, Tarun Das, Shinji Fukukawa, and Yang Jike
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For China and India, rapid economic growth is imperative to alleviate poverty, raise income levels and improve their citizens' quality of life. In 2000, China and India's combined populations of 2.3 billion represented over 38 percent of the world's population. With both countries determined to grow their economies rapidly, there will be an associated rapid rise in energy demand. One of the most significant problems facing the two countries is the existing and increasing level of air pollution that will accompany growing energy consumption. This report focuses on the challenge of developing economic, energy, and environmental policies that will complement existing policies designed to reconcile the drive for economic growth with the need for greater environmental protection of air quality.
Topic:
Economics and Environment
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, India, and Asia

181. East Asia: Currency Cooperation

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Former IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer expressed support for regional currency arrangements in a speech at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on May 21. East Asian nations continue to discuss swap arrangements and other forms of cooperation in the hope of defending local currencies. Fischer endorsed the swap plans while throwing critical light on currency 'management' schemes. Such schemes could result in perverse consequences for regional economies.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia and Hong Kong

182. Strengthening Financial Sector Governance in Emerging Markets

Author:
Robert Litan, Michael Pomerleano, and V. Sundararajan
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Policymakers and analysts are still sifting through the wreckage of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the subsequent crises in Russia, Turkey, and Argentina to discern key lessons so that similar crises will not recur. Some lessons are by now well understood. Pegged exchange rates can encourage excessive borrowing and expose countries to financial collapse when foreign exchange reserves run dry. Inadequate disclosures by both private companies and public bodies can lead to similar dangers. Although many factors undoubtedly contributed to these crises, it is now widely recognized that each suffered from a failure in “governance,” and in particular a failure in governance in their financial sectors. Accordingly, the World Bank Group, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Brookings Institution devoted their fourth annual Financial Markets and Development Conference, held in New York from April 17-19, 2002, to the subject of financial sector governance in emerging markets. This conference report summarizes some of the highlights of the conference, whose full proceedings will be published as a Brookings book in the fall of 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, New York, Turkey, Asia, and Argentina

183. Global Economic Prospects

Author:
Michael Mussa
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The global economic recovery is continuing but at a somewhat slower pace than was anticipated six months ago. Specifically, using the country weights from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the forecast for real GDP growth in the world economy during 2002 (i.e., on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) is cut by about half a percentage point to 3 percent—a pace that is slightly below my estimate of the potential growth rate for world GDP. This downward revision reflects primarily slower growth than earlier expected during the first half of 2002 in most industrial countries and the expectation that growth will remain somewhat more sluggish than earlier expected at least through year-end. For 2003, the forecast for global economic growth is also cut by about half a percentage point—to 4 percent—reflecting both general factors suggesting slightly weaker performance in many industrial and developing countries and the particular economic risks arising from possible military action against Iraq and from potential credit events affecting key developing countries. Despite these downward revisions, however, there is little doubt that the world economy will see significant improvement this year from the 1 percent growth recorded in 2001, and it is still reasonable to expect further improvement to a growth rate modestly above global potential during 2003.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Israel, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America

184. Russia's Maternal and Infant Health Crisis: Socio-Economic Implications and the Path Forward

Author:
Stephen M. Massey
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Today, fewer than one in three Russian newborns is healthy, disease rates among Russian children are surging, and shrinking access to quality family planning and prenatal care has worsened the state of women's reproductive health across Russia. The health of Russia's infants and children is especially significant given the country's shrinking population and the mounting problems of infectious disease, rural poverty, illegal narcotics, and alcohol abuse – all contributing factors to poor birth outcomes. The long-term economic impact of unhealthy children born in the past decade is already a serious limiting factor to Russia's emergence as a strong economic partner and international actor. Many infant deaths and childhood illnesses could be prevented with expanded investments in infrastructure and education, improved access to quality care, and reform of Russia's healthcare sector – each of which is too costly for Russia to finance on its own. Untapped opportunities also exist for collaboration between Russian, European, and American civic groups, healthcare experts, scientists, and policy leaders that would have a positive impact on maternal and child health in Russia and beyond.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

185. Russia's Southern Regions: Threats and Opportunities

Author:
Robert Orttung
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Instability in Russia's southern regions poses a threat to the continuation of the country's overall political and economic reform, and to regional stability in Central Eurasia. These regions, which already possess Russia's most fragile local economics, face a variety of problems emanating from the weak and failing states to their immediate south. Most visibly, there is the threat of terrorism, an increasing flow of illegal narcotics from producers in Afghanistan, an influx of contraband goods that wipe out Russian jobs, and illegal immigration. With few resources and extensive corruption among key officials, Russia's southern regions are poorly equipped to deal with these problems. Developing mutually beneficial trade links between Russia's southern regions and its neighbors in Central Asia, China, and Mongolia can mitigate instability and economic stagnation in this region, help to rebuild regional economies, generate income, and better enable governments to provide security and basic human services to their people. The West can support these developments as well as help combat organized crime, target corruption, and improve border security.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Mongolia, and Asia

186. APEC — Shanghai Accord

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Pacific Rim leaders on October 21 signed an accord to re-invigorate progress towards free trade and investment in the region. The Shanghai Accord marks the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum's effort to stimulate a flagging liberalisation agenda and to show leadership in promoting regional recovery. However, the accord may exacerbate the risk of further fracturing the diverse grouping. It will be difficult for APEC to move forward on trade liberalisation given that the organisation's own formulation of consensual, unbound liberalisation has proved unsuccessful in periods of economic crisis. The pathfinder initiative may re-energise the process but at the risk of APEC's fragmentation and without addressing the problems of some members' hesitation and lack of political will for domestic structural reform.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Shanghai and Asia

187. India/Pakistan — Peace Pipe

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
India and Iran have proposed the construction of a natural gas pipeline connection. While the project would be a major engineering achievement, the principal challenge will be gaining Islamabad's consent for it to traverse Pakistani territory. Pakistan's parlous relations with Tehran and Delhi, the latter little improved by last weekend's summit, will make this difficult.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Asia

188. Corruption and Globalization

Author:
Shang-Jin Wei
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
At least since the Asian financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has, from time to time, included transparency and anti-corruption measures as part of the conditions for countries to borrow its funds. Because of this, it has been criticized as having overstepped its mandate, or even having made crises worse in countries the IMF is supposed to help.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and Third World
Political Geography:
Asia

189. United States -- Economic Slowdown?

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
In recent weeks, economic data has produced conflicting signals about the strength of domestic demand within the US economy. A majority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believes that growth will decelerate and that only a small tightening of monetary policy will be necessary in the short term. However, the Federal Reserve has consistently underestimated domestic demand, and there are signs that the economy is still buoyant. Moreover, with improving economic prospects in Europe and Asia, the external forces encouraging lower US interest rates are likely to be reversed. The combination of these factors could put pressure on the Fed to tighten further.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Asia

190. The Case for a Russian Currency Board System

Author:
Steve H. Hanke
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The devaluation of the Russian ruble this year was predictable, especially considering Russia's poor monetary history. State-manipulated money has been a Russian hallmark since the time of Peter the Great and shows that the country's money problems are endemic and do not depend on who controls the central bank. Czarist, Soviet, and post-Soviet governments have used the central bank printing press to finance deficit spending, resulting in high inflation, confiscation of savings, capital controls, or a combination of the three.
Topic:
Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

191. Time to Terminate the ESF and the IMF

Author:
Anna J. Schwartz
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund are undemocratic institutions unaccountable for their actions. Their current functions have little to do with their original missions. The ESF is used by the executive branch to circumvent Congress in the provision of foreign aid. Its foreign exchange interventions have, in any event, always been wasteful and ineffective at controlling the relative price of the U.S. dollar. The IMF has also been used to provide massive bailouts in the cases of Mexico in 1995 and of Asian countries since 1997. Defenders of the IMF as an international lender of last resort are misinformed since the IMF does not and cannot serve that purpose. Both institutions should be abolished, not reformed, because they are not needed to resolve currency crises and they preclude superior solutions.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Mexico