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182. EU Accession and the Euro: Close Together or Far Apart?
- Author:
- Peter B. Kenen and Ellen E. Meade
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In May 2004, ten countries are due to join the European Union. They are therefore obliged to join the European Monetary Union (EMU) and adopt the euro as their national currency. Most of them, moreover, have been eager to do that. None of them sought an opt-out of the sort that Britain and Denmark obtained in 1991, when the Maastricht Treaty was drafted. Membership in EMU is not automatic, however, because the accession countries must first satisfy the preconditions contained in the Maastricht Treaty. Although those preconditions are rigorous, and some of the accession countries are still far from meeting them, most of those countries have indicated that they want to enter EMU at the earliest possible date.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Europe, and Denmark
183. More Pain, More Gain: Politics and Economics of Eliminating Tariffs
- Author:
- Gary Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- A good proposal to eliminate tariffs must take into account both the pain and gain that developing countries are likely to experience. The authors take the measure of these costs and benefits and urge rich countries to maximize the benefits to developing countries while giving them ample time to accept, and adjust to, the changes that trade liberalization will require. But trade liberalization should not stop with tariff proposals. The United States and other industrial countries should generously reduce subsidies to farmers and eliminate nontariff barriers on agricultural imports. The United States should offer more concessions on services trade, particularly in its allowances for temporary foreign workers. Unless rich countries put more on the table, a WTO agreement to eliminate tariff barriers may be postponed for years.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- United States
184. Rules Against Earnings Stripping: Wrong Answer to Corporate Inversions
- Author:
- Gary Hufbauer and Ariel Assa
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The tax-driven expatriation of US corporations is a troubling phenomenon. In a “corporate inversion,” a new foreign corporation, typically located in a low-tax or no-tax country, replaces the existing US parent corporation of a multinational enterprise (MNE). The US corporation then becomes a subsidiary of the new foreign parent. Since the US tax treatment of an MNE operating in the United States is significantly less favorable when the top-tier parent corporation is a domestic rather than a foreign corporation, the inversion transaction averts a substantial amount of US tax. Inversions have attracted adverse attention from tax specialists, media, the US Treasury Department, and Congress. In the wake of September 11, it seemed downright unpatriotic for US firms to invert as a way of skimping on their tax payments.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
185. The Impact of Economic Sanctions on US Trade: Andrew Rose's Gravity Model
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Barbara Oegg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- With the end of the Cold War, the focus of US foreign policy changed—and so did that of economic sanctions. Partly because of increased cooperation within the UN framework, economic sanctions were imposed so routinely in the early 1990s that scholars called that period the sanctions decade. This proliferation sparked intense debate about the effectiveness of sanctions as a policy tool and moved US sanctions policy to the center of public discourse.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
186. Economic Leverage and the North Korean Nuclear Crisis
- Author:
- Kimberly Ann Elliott
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Almost a decade ago, as the last nuclear crisis with North Korea was reaching a peak, I concluded the following about the potential utility of economic sanctions: The debate over US policy toward North Korea boils down to one deceptively simple question: what does Kim Il-sung want? No one can be sure of the answer and different interpretations have quite different policy implications. If the Great Leader views a nuclear weapons option as important to the survival of his regime, economic sanctions are unlikely to force him to give it up. But if he views the threat of developing nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip, some combination of carrots and sticks may induce him to trade it away.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, and North Korea
187. Global Economic Prospects
- Author:
- Michael Mussa
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The global economic recovery is continuing but at a somewhat slower pace than was anticipated six months ago. Specifically, using the country weights from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the forecast for real GDP growth in the world economy during 2002 (i.e., on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) is cut by about half a percentage point to 3 percent—a pace that is slightly below my estimate of the potential growth rate for world GDP. This downward revision reflects primarily slower growth than earlier expected during the first half of 2002 in most industrial countries and the expectation that growth will remain somewhat more sluggish than earlier expected at least through year-end. For 2003, the forecast for global economic growth is also cut by about half a percentage point—to 4 percent—reflecting both general factors suggesting slightly weaker performance in many industrial and developing countries and the particular economic risks arising from possible military action against Iraq and from potential credit events affecting key developing countries. Despite these downward revisions, however, there is little doubt that the world economy will see significant improvement this year from the 1 percent growth recorded in 2001, and it is still reasonable to expect further improvement to a growth rate modestly above global potential during 2003.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Europe, Israel, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America
188. The Foreign Sales Corporation: Reaching the Last Act?
- Author:
- Gary Hufbauer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Some trade disputes—like long Russian novels—never seem to end. The United States, Europe, and other trading nations have disputed the taxation of export earnings since the 1970s. To understand why the Foreign Sales Corporation (FSC) dispute is so hard to resolve, we must start with a historical tour.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Europe
189. Further Financial Services Liberalization in the Doha Round?
- Author:
- Wendy Dobson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Recent evidence demonstrates strong links between developing countries' long-term growth and financial reform. Deputy Treasury Secretary Kenneth Dam has suggested that developing countries can transform their domestic financial sectors into "engines of growth."
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
190. Is Brazil Next?
- Author:
- John Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines whether the pessimism that recently gripped the financial markets about Brazil's economic prospects is justified, and whether the big IMF program in support of Brazil announced on August 8, 2002, is likely to succeed in turning the tide. It concludes that present policies would be adequate to secure a gradual reduction in the debt/GDP ratio given return of the exchange rate to a less undervalued level and a level of interest rates that is normal by past Brazilian standards though still high by world standards, though not under the recent conditions of a severely undervalued real and astronomical interest rates. It also concludes that the strongly improving trend recently evident in Brazilian trade promises a progressive reduction in external vulnerability, though this again could be jeopardized by the maintenance of sky-high interest rates. It then argues that, despite the mixed records of the two principal opposition candidates for the presidency, neither would be likely to choose a policy of deliberately reneging on Brazil's debts. That being so, the recent market turbulence has to be interpreted as a panic in which even those convinced that Brazil's fundamentals are sound did not dare to speculate in favor of restoration of normality. Such situations are exactly those where the IMF can play a useful role in breaking a panic, and hence the new loan much improves the chances of Brazil avoiding the implosion that would be likely to follow a debt restructuring.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America