Content Type: Policy Brief / Publishing Institution: Lowy Institute for International Policy

1. Crumbling cornerstone? Australia’s education ties with Southeast Asia

Author:: Susannah Patton
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? Successive Australian governments have billed education as the cornerstone of its people-to-people connections and influence in Southeast Asia. Yet the era of the Colombo Plan, in which Australia educated the region’s top leaders, is over. Changing economic relativities, and the success of both established and new competitors such as China and Japan, mean Australia’s access and influence through education to the region’s future leaders will decline. Moreover, a narrow focus on Southeast Asia as a market for generating international student revenue may lead to Australia missing opportunities to help build regional human capacity and advance its bilateral relationships. WHAT SHOULD BE DONE? The Australian government needs to increase and diversify scholarship offerings to students from Southeast Asia. This includes refocusing on the Australia Awards and reintroducing a merit-based scholarship targeted at the regional countries that do not receive bilateral development assistance from Australia (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei). A new international education strategy should develop a focus on building regional human capacity, rather than viewing international students solely in terms of a market opportunity. The government should also reshape the New Colombo Plan to focus more on long-term study opportunities to ensure it is meeting its original goal of strengthening Australia’s relationships with countries in the broader Indo-Pacific.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Education, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Australia and Southeast Asia

2. Australia's South China Sea Challenges

Author:: Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: China will not agree to a South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) that is consistent with the 2016 South China Sea arbitral tribunal ruling, and therefore any COC which China agrees with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will harm Australia’s interests. But a lack of Australian support for such a Code would aggravate relations with Southeast Asian states and ASEAN, and with China. Australia should use the time afforded by the drawn-out Code of Conduct negotiations to coordinate with the five littoral Southeast Asian states affected by China’s unlawful maritime claims. Australia should emphasise the need for consistency with international law, especially the 2016 arbitral ruling. The Biden administration is likely to increase pressure on Australia to conduct freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) in the South China Sea. Such action may risk a significant Chinese response against Australia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, Alliance, and Freedom of Movement
Political Geography:: China, Australia, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and South China Sea

3. Eyes on the Prize: Australia, China, and the Antarctic Treaty System

Author:: Claire Young
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia’s interests in Antarctica are better served by the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) than anything we could negotiate today. We should redouble our commitment to its ideals of science-driven, rules-based management — and counter the narrative of ATS ‘failure’. China is pushing the boundaries of ATS practice by exploiting fisheries and tourism, and probably seeking access to Western technologies in Antarctica. And in the future, Beijing could lead a coalition of states seeking mineral riches that only China is likely to be capable of retrieving. Australia should watch China’s activities closely, but react cautiously. We should be wary of false analogies with the Arctic and not overreact to marginal military developments. We should shield the ATS from Australia–China tension and US–China competition.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, Natural Resources, Tourism, Geopolitics, Fishing, and Coalition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Australia, and Arctic

4. Chinese-Australians in the Australian Public Service

Author:: Yang Jiang
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Almost every governmental policy decision made today has a China angle, and building understanding of China has become more pressing for Australian policymaking than ever. Despite the urgent demand within the Australian public service for China expertise and language skills, the existing skills of many Chinese-Australians are being overlooked. Australia has a significant, diverse, and growing population of Chinese-Australians, but they are underrepresented and underutilised in the public service. A better harnessing of the skills and knowledge of this community — including via improved recruitment processes, better use of data, skills-matching, and reviewing and clarifying security clearance processes and requirements — would have substantial benefits for Australian policymaking in one of its most important bilateral relationships.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Public Service
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia

5. Bridging Papua New Guinea’s information divide

Author:: Shane McLeod
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Access to reliable public information is critical for Papua New Guinea as it heads towards national elections in mid-2022. The country’s public broadcaster needs urgent support to keep radio transmitters on air and to reach ‘disconnected’ audiences who have no other means of receiving public information. Australia should support Papua New Guinea to upgrade the National Broadcasting Corporation’s radio transmission capacity ahead of the vote by funding transmitter upgrades in under-served towns and regions, and by trialling a national shortwave service broadcast from offshore to provide coverage to the entire country. While the National Broadcasting Corporation implements medium-term strategies to achieve nationwide coverage, it will need to restructure its operations based on a more efficient regional production model, and focus on making its broadcast transmission operations financially and technically sustainable.
Topic:: Elections, Media, Radio, and Public Information
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific and Papua New Guinea

6. The missing anchor: Why the EU should join the CPTPP

Author:: Peter Draper and Naoise McDonagh
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a twenty-first century trade accord that aims to secure a level playing field and rules-based trade environment in the Indo-Pacific. Yet in the absence of the United States, it risks underachieving on this goal. The European Union (EU) is the only global actor with the trade preferences and requisite economic heft to provide a similar anchoring function for market-orientated trade as was envisioned for the United States in the CPTPP. An EU accession bid to the CPTPP would require overcoming major hurdles and reservations, not least in Brussels. The gains in surmounting them, however, would be considerable. Any EU accession process should avoid jeopardising the possibility of a return of the United States to the multilateral trade agreement. An equivalence regime for regulations where CPTPP members are not in alignment with EU standards could in principle open the possibility of the EU and the United States eventually co-habiting within the CPTPP, however remote or delayed the prospect. Australia should use its status as a founding CPTPP member to advocate for EU accession to the trade agreement. Engaging Europe on the future of the multilateral trade architecture in Asia presents a key area of potential convergence between Brussels and Canberra, following a setback in strategic ties caused by the Australian cancellation of a French-led submarine contract.
Topic:: European Union, Partnerships, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

7. Taiwan Flashpoint: What Australia Can Do to Stop the Coming Taiwan Crisis

Author:: Brendan Taylor
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australian diplomacy could ease rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait, if Australian policymakers rediscovered an appetite for involvement in the flashpoint. Tensions between Taiwan and China are rising, driven in part by an increasingly assertive government in Beijing, growing Taiwanese estrangement from the Chinese mainland, and deteriorating US–China relations. If key regional governments fail to help de-escalate tensions, the consequences are likely to be serious. Rather than continue the debate about Australia’s position on its ANZUS obligations should the United States invoke the treaty in a Taiwan conflict, Australia should work with other regional powers to advocate for more robust risk avoidance and crisis management mechanisms.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Multilateralism, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, Australia, and United States of America

8. Emerging from COVID: Policy Responses to the Pandemic

Author:: Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, John Edwards, Stephen Grenville, Natasha Kassam, Herve Lemahieu, Alyssa Leng, Richard McGregor, Shane McLeod, Alex Oliver, Jonathan Pryke, Roland Rajah, Sam Roggeveen, and Sam Scott
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The fight against COVID-19 has been the greatest challenge the world has faced since the middle of last century. As countries have fought to control the disease, they have closed borders, quarantined their citizens, and shut down economies almost entirely. The ramifications will reverberate for years, if not decades, to come. In April 2020, the Lowy Institute published a digital feature in which twelve Institute experts examined the ways in which the COVID crisis would affect Australia, the region and the world. In this new feature, Lowy Institute experts provide policy recommendations for Australia to address issues that are critical to our nation’s — and the world’s — successful emergence from the pandemic. Countries have turned inwards in an attempt to fend off the threat of an infection that is oblivious to borders. Some have seen globalisation as the cause of the crisis, and have focused on solving problems without recourse to the international institutions of global security and prosperity, including the United Nations, the World Health Organization, and the G20. Yet global problems require international solutions. As the world emerges from the crisis, cooperation between nations will be more important than ever. Nation states cannot revive their economies purely through national solutions. They cannot address global threats, including the possibility of further pandemics, alone. Australia’s achievements in managing the COVID crisis have been exemplary. It has handled the health and economic emergency with great competence. But this is just the beginning of our crisis recovery. The challenges in our region, and the global problems that existed before COVID, have only been exacerbated by the pandemic. Australia has already done much to address the domestic economic and health issues from the COVID crisis. But to shape a prosperous and secure future, it will also need to work in cooperation with other nations, large and small, allies and partners, on a much broader array of international issues ranging from the economic disruption across the region, pressure from China on trade, and development challenges in the Pacific, to increasingly competitive relations between the United States and China, the weakening of the World Health Organization, and the declining utility of the G20.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Health, World Health Organization, G20, Geopolitics, COVID-19, and International Order
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Australia, and United States of America

9. Keeping Indonesia's economy afloat through the COVID-19 pandemic

Author:: Roland Rajah and Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The principal economic problem facing Indonesia amid COVID-19 is financing the budget deficit needed to respond to a once-in-a-lifetime shock. In a world of self-help, Indonesia has been right to turn to Bank Indonesia, which could establish a clear policy of yield curve stabilisation as a basis for providing a readily scalable amount of deficit financing. Key bilateral partners, such as Australia, could complement this by providing a large standby loan facility to help reduce some of the inherent risks of Indonesia relying on its central bank.
Topic:: Economics, Budget, Banks, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Australia, and Southeast Asia

10. Avoiding a Pacific Lost Decade: Financing the Pacific's Covid-19 Recovery

Author:: Roland Rajah and Alexandre Dayant
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The Pacific faces a potential ‘lost decade' owing to the economic devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and an inability to finance the scale of government largesse needed to limit the damage. A multi-year ‘recovery package’ of at least US$3.5 billion (A$5.0 billion) is needed for the Pacific to fully recover from the pandemic. This should be funded by the region’s official development partners. Australia should establish a US$1.4 billion (A$2 billion) COVID-19 Pacific recovery financing facility, and advocate for other parts of the international community to follow its lead in contributing to the Pacific’s economic recovery. Once Australia has stepped up its own Pacific recovery financing contribution, it will be in a much stronger position to call on other development partners to do the same.
Topic:: Finance, COVID-19, Economic Recovery, and Loans
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific

11. When Turnbull meets Trump

Author:: Alan Dupont
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s first face-to-face meeting with President Donald Trump is an opportunity to deliver some key messages about the role the United States should play globally and in Asia.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

12. The shape of Australia’s future engagement with the United Nations

Author:: Peter Nadin
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia should strengthen its engagement with the United Nations to ensure it has a greater voice on global issues that matter to its national interests
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. The G20 needs a growth strategy

Author:: Mike Callaghan
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: In this Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Director of the G20 Studies Centre Mike Callaghan AM argues that the G20 needs to develop a comprehensive growth strategy to lift global growth and create jobs. Callaghan outlines the steps required to develop such a strategy by the Brisbane G20 Summit.
Topic:: International Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14. The G20 Needs A Growth Strategy

Author:: Mike Callaghan
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Restoring global economic growth and creating jobs has been an objective of successive G20 summits. Australia has also made it a priority for the G20 in 2014. To achieve such an outcome requires a comprehensive and agreed growth strategy. The G20 lacks such a strategy and has failed to provide a clear and consistent message about how members can or are working together to achieve such an outcome.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Australia

15. Fiji's election and Australia: the terms of re-engagement

Author:: Jenny Hayward-Jones
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The Lowy Institute for International Policy is an independent policy think tank. Its mandate ranges across all the dimensions of international policy debate in Australia – economic, political and strategic – and it is not limited to a particular geographic region. Its two core tasks are to: produce distinctive research and fresh policy options for Australia's international policy and to contribute to the wider international debate. promote discussion of Australia's role in the world by providing an accessible and high quality forum for discussion of Australian international relations through debates, seminars, lectures, dialogues and conferences.
Political Geography:: Australia

16. Consular Conundrum: The Rising Demands and Diminishing Means for Assisting Australians Overseas

Author:: Alex Oliver
Publication Date:: 03-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Demands on Australia’s consular service are becoming increasingly difficult to meet. How can DFAT manage the increased consular workload in a tight fiscal environment, without neglecting Australia’s other foreign policy priorities?
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Australia

17. Australia-China Ties: In Search of Political Trust

Author:: Linda Jakobson
Publication Date:: 03-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia's political relationship with China is far less developed than its economic relationship. This is detrimental to Australia's interests because China is not merely an economic power but also a crucial political and security actor in the region. Underdeveloped political and strategic relations between Canberra and Beijing weaken Australia's ability to exert influence regionally.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Australia

18. Inflection Point: The Australian Defence Force after Afghanistan

Author:: Alan Dupont
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: In every era there are inflection points which require long-established institutions to re-evaluate their goals, strategy, structure and resource allocations to ensure their future health and relevance. The Australian Defence Force (ADF) is no exception.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Australia

19. The 2012 National Elections in Papua New Guinea: Averting Violence

Author:: Scott Flower
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The 2012 general elections in Papua New Guinea are likely to be marred by violence. The increased financial bounty at stake, the enhanced value of political office, the proliferation of weapons, and pressures on PNG’s Electoral Commission, Defence Force and police combine to highlight security concerns around the elections, particularly in the Highlands provinces.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Papua New Guinea

20. The 2012 national elections in Papua New Guinea: averting violence

Author:: Scott Flower and Jim Leahy
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: This paper draws on fieldwork undertaken by the authors between January 2011 and January 2012 among local communities in Port Moresby and three of the more unstable highlands provinces of PNG (Southern Highlands, Western Highlands and Enga).
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, Government, Politics, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Guinea

21. Inflection point: the Australian Defence Force after Afghanistan

Author:: Alan Dupont
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: In every era there are inflection points which require long - established institutions to re - evaluate their goals, strategy, structure and resource allocations to ensure their future health and relevance. As a major organ of state, the Australian Defence Force (ADF) is no exception.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

22. Australia - China ties: in search of political trust

Author:: Linda Jakobson
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: How Canberra should manage its relations with Beijing, given the importance of China economically, politically and militarily, is a question which divides Australians. There is general agreement that the rise of China will have a profound effect on the well - being and security of Australia. The consensus ends there.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia

23. Policy overboard: Australia's increasingly costly Fiji drift

Author:: Jenny Hayward-Jones
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? Australia's tough-love policy towards Fiji has failed to persuade the government of Voreqe Bainimarama to restore democracy to Fiji and may even be helping to entrench his regime. The Fiji government, resistant to external pressure, has instead developed new allegiances and partnerships which undermine Australia's influence. Australia's reputation as a major power in the South Pacific and as a creative middle power more broadly may be diminished by the Fiji government's continued intransigence. Over time the Fiji people's once-strong connections with Australia may dwindle and Australia's relevance to Fiji gradually diminish unless the Australian government takes decisive action now.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Democratization
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia/Pacific

24. China in the Pacific: the new banker in town

Author:: Fergus Hanson and Mary Fifita
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? China is now one of the Pacific\'s major donors. An analysis of its aid program in the region from 2005 to 2009 suggests it is reducing the grant component of its aid and increasing the soft loan proportion. China has pledged over $US 600 million to the Pacific since 2005 and debt burdening will become increasingly pressing as Chinese loans accumulate and the five-year grace periods expire. There appears to have been limited progress improving transparency.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

25. Antarctica: assessing and protecting Australia's national interests

Author:: Ellie Fogarty
Publication Date:: 08-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: International interest in Antarctica is rising. Major powers such as China and Russia have voiced their interest in the continent's resource potential, strongly suggesting the current prohibition of resource exploitation will be revisited after 2048. These developments pose a potential threat to the longevity of the Antarctic Treaty System as well as Australia's dormant claim to 42 per cent of the continent. Australia has limited Antarctic presence and capability, and posits its policy in terms of science and environmental management rather than national security. This raises questions about its ability to preserve its sovereignty claim.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Australia

26. Turning the tide: improving access to climate financing in the Pacific Islands

Author:: Nic Maclellan
Publication Date:: 07-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits developed countries to provide assistance to 'developing country parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to meet the costs of adaptation.' Despite recent commitments of 'fast-start' climate funding from donors, Pacific Island governments face significant obstacles in accessing sufficient resources to address the adverse effects of climate change on food security, water supply, coastal management and public health. Greater international coordination is required to increase access to climate finance for small island states. Without this coordination, efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015 could be set back, due to the diversion of long - term development funding to disaster response and rebuilding.
Topic:: Security, Health, and Food
Political Geography:: United Nations, Australia, and Island

27. Living with the dragon: why Australia needs a China strategy

Author:: Alan Dupont
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: If, metaphorically, Australia rode to prosperity on the back of a sheep in the last century, our skill in riding the Chinese dragon will determine our prosperity in this century. Yet despite its obvious importance, Australia has failed to grasp the full implications of China's meteoric rise or the risk of conflict in the Western Pacific. Our approach to China is fragmented, superficial, overly focused on raw - material exports, conflicted, ambivalent and under - resourced. Getting China wrong will have seriously detrimental consequences for our future security and growth.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China and Australia

28. Indonesia and Australia: time for a step change

Author:: Fergus Hanson
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The relationship with Indonesia is one of Australia's most important but it is still not on a firm footing. Government-to-government ties have been strengthening but relations are focused around a mostly negative set of security-related issues. Business-to-business links are underdone and mutual public perceptions are poor. Without significant incentives to drive closer ties, one of Australia's most important relationships will continue to stagnate.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

29. Capital flows, the carry trade and 'sand in the wheels'

Author:: Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The 'carry trade', in which capital shifts from countries with low interest rates to countries with significantly higher rates, has become an important element of international capital flows over the past decade. With low interest rates in the United States, Japan, the UK and much of the rest of Europe expected to persist for some time, these flows seem likely to become larger in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Particularly for the emerging countries with shallow financial markets, interest-sensitive inflows have the potential to be disruptive. Exchange rates will tend to be overvalued for sustained periods, punctuated by sharp depreciations. These distorted and varying price signals will be unhelpful for good policy-making and steady economic growth.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, United Kingdom, and Europe

30. Confronting the Crisis of International Climate Policy

Author:: Warwick McKibbin, Fergus Green, and Greg Picker
Publication Date:: 07-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: After an extraordinary build-up, stratospheric public expectations, unprecedented political attention, and the presence of more than 100 heads of State, the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference spectacularly failed to produce an international response to climate change commensurate with the scale of the problem. Instead, the Conference revealed with great drama the fundamental weaknesses of the existing framework for international climate governance. Even the Copenhagen Accord – a 3-page, heavily-qualified, nonbinding Statement of political intent, and the singular achievement of the Conference – was vigorously resisted by a number of countries when it was submitted to the full plenary for adoption on the final night of negotiations. As exhausted delegates lay lifeless, strewn across the cavernous negotiating hall watching Venezuelan officials block the adoption of the Accord because it made reference to the role of market mechanisms in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, even the most ardent advocate of the 20-year old UN climate process could not have helped but think 'there must be a better way'.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations

31. Revitalising Papua New Guinea's health system: the need for creative approaches

Author:: Katherine Lepani and Julienne McKay
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: There is significant potential for the PNG government to deliver better health services for all Papuan New Guineans. Major health problems are now preventable. Cost-effective options are available to Papua New Guineans to treat malaria, pneumonia, tuberculosis and HIV as well as to reduce infant and maternal mortality. In this Policy Brief Julienne McKay and Dr Katherine Lepani explore how demand-responsive mechanisms (vouchers, micro-health insurance, social franchises and social businesses) can be a compelling addition to strengthening health systems in PNG. The research looks at the potential use of these instruments with a focus on HIV, maternal health, tuberculosis and malaria, and contains policy recommendations for government, the private sector and donors.
Topic:: Health and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Guinea

32. Dropping the autopilot: improving Australia's defence diplomacy

Author:: Nicholas Floyd
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? With Canberra's instruments of international policy under strain, the military offers much potential as a foreign policy force multiplier. The Australian Department of Defence has 92 defence advisory staff in diplomatic missions, and about 560 other staff overseas, not counting troops on deployment. There has been recent movement away from an old-fashioned defence diplomacy based more on habit and individual initiative than on strategic or whole-of-government guidance. This movement needs to be consolidated and built upon. The nation needs to drop any remnants of its autopilot approach to defence diplomacy.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

33. A digital DFAT: joining the 21st century

Author:: Fergus Hanson
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) needs to keep pace with technological advancements that could increase efficiency, improve internal and external communication, and facilitate information exchange and gathering. Without e-diplomacy DFAT will be cut off from important audiences and find it increasingly hard to communicate its messages and coordinate Australian foreign policy across government.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

34. Confronting reality: responding to war criminals living in Australia

Author:: Fergus Hanson
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: It was as recently as 1994 that 800,000 Rwandans were systematically slaughtered and the world was reminded that genocide is still possible. July the following year it happened again, when more than 7,000 men were murdered in the Srebrenica massacre. Today, the killing continues in places like Darfur where the death toll now stands in the hundreds of thousands and the Democratic Republic of Congo where the toll stands in the millions. The crimes committed in these and the many other conflicts of recent decades – the mass killing of civilian populations, the rape of countless women and widespread use of torture – have shaken the conscience of the world.
Topic:: Crime, Government, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

35. Refining the G-20 agenda

Author:: Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What began as the sub-prime crisis in America is now universally recognised as a Global Financial Crisis (GFC). While the consequences are clearly global, however, the required policy responses may be largely domestic, as indeed they have been so far. Nevertheless, financial markets are looking to the forthcoming G-20 Leaders' London meeting in April, in the hope that it will produce confidence-boosting measures. Realistically, what can be done at the international level? The central issue to be explored here is the extent to which an international response is relevant to the GFC, in the form of policy coordination or cooperation in rule-setting of the kind that could be orchestrated by the G-20 Leaders.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: America and London

36. Fiji: the flailing state

Publication Date:: 04-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Fiji's President Ratu Josefa Iloilovatu Uluivuda announced on 10 April 2009 that he had abrogated Fiji's 1997 constitution, appointed himself head of state, revoked the appointment of all judicial officers and would direct an interim government to hold parliamentary elections by September 2014. The President's announcement followed a Court of Appeal judgement on 9 April which ruled that Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama's December 2006 coup was illegal and directed the President to appoint an independent third person to lead an interim government and call for fresh elections under the 1997 constitution. On 11 April, President Iloilo reappointed Bainimarama as interim Prime Minister, who subsequently imposed strict censorship on the media, deported Australian journalist Sean Dorney, arrested a number of opponents and removed the Reserve Bank Governor, Savenaca Narube.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

37. Mass poverty in Asia and the GFC

Author:: Peter McCawley
Publication Date:: 06-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? In addition to the current Global Financial Crisis (GFC), there is a second global crisis: long-term mass poverty in the third world. While the rich world worries about a repeat of the Great Depression, today more than a billion people in Asia live in conditions of bitter poverty which are much worse than those of the 1930s. As a result of the GFC, poverty in developing Asia is now likely to increase.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Poverty, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Asia

38. China: stumbling through the Pacific

Author:: Fergus Hanson
Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? China lacks a coherent strategy for its aid program in the Pacific – beyond checking and reversing diplomatic recognition of Taiwan – and tends to pursue short-term objectives. China pledges aid in an erratic manner, funds projects without regard to recurring costs, and the secrecy surrounding its program obstructs development outcomes, and breeds suspicion. This short-termism has likely led China to miscalculate by over-engaging the dictatorship in Fiji. This approach is a legacy of its long-running battle with Taiwan.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

39. A tighter net: strengthening the Proliferation Security Initiative

Author:: Emma Belcher
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? United Nations Security Council Resolution 1874 of June 2009 puts extra sanctions on North Korea and encourages lawful interdictions. This adds credibility to the 95-member Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), a US-initiated arrangement to promote interception of transfers of cargoes related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD). South Korea's recent decision to join PSI is another positive step.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:: North Korea and Australia/Pacific

40. Australia's poisoned alumni: international education and the costs to Australia

Author:: Michael Wesley
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? International education is Australia's third-largest export market, earning over $15 billion in export income annually. But as tertiary institutions face incentives to maximise income from foreign students, some have lowered language standards and cut costs on student welfare and service provision.
Topic:: Crime, Economics, Education, Globalization, and Migration
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

41. Message to the G20: Defeating protectionism begins at home

Author:: Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem ? On 16 November 2008, G20 leaders made a commitment to resist protectionism. When they meet in Pittsburgh, on 24 September 2009, they will have an opportunity to review that commitment and to decide how best to act on it. The advice they have received to date focuses on international monitoring and short-term responses to the global economic crisis. These measures do little to deal with the underlying causes of protectionism.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements

42. External imbalances and the G20

Author:: Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: International external imbalances have been blamed for playing a central role in the Global Financial Crisis. China's large external surplus usually figures prominently in these explanations. While a more balanced account of the causes of the crisis would give only a modest role to external imbalances there seems little doubt that some adjustment of these imbalances over the next few years is both inevitable and desirable, not because external imbalances in themselves are inherently undesirable, but because some of the specific components of today's current balances are unsustainable. Markets could bring about these necessary adjustments over time. History, however, tells us that market-driven adjustments are often accompanied by exchange-rate overshooting and trade- threatening protectionist responses.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

43. Unconventional partners: Australia-India cooperation in reducing nuclear dangers

Author:: Rory Medcalf and Amandeep Gill
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: To reduce the grave dangers posed by the continued existence and spread of nuclear weapons, and the risk that they will one day again be used, unconventional diplomacy is needed. Part of the problem is the way in which global agreements or pragmatic interim solutions are often obstructed by longstanding divisions among nations: nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states; Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) members and nonmembers; Western states and the non-aligned. New partnerships and platforms for dialogue could cut across these stale categories, at least on some issues, and expand the space for agreement and new thinking. Australia and India could take the lead in crafting one such new partnership.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Australia/Pacific

44. Rebuilding Zimbabwe: Australia's role in supporting the transition

Author:: Joel Negin and Jolyon Ford
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Zimbabwe's long night is by no means over. Nearly a year after the violent and disputed March 2008 elections, and months after the September signing of a 'Global Political Agreement' with the ruling ZANU-PF party, the main faction of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) agreed in February to take part in a coalition government in which its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, became Prime Minister. The state apparatus in Zimbabwe is currently shared uneasily by reformers and reactionaries with each of the MDC and ZANU-PF having half of the cabinet seats. Hardline ZANU-PF elements remain in government and control the security services, and a quiet but intense power struggle continues.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Development, Foreign Aid, and Food
Political Geography:: Africa, Australia, and Zimbabwe

45. Obama's surge: The United States, Australia and the Second War for Afghanistan

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 12-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: President Obama's announcement of a troop surge and the planned withdrawal of the Netherlands as lead nation in Oruzgan province in mid-2010, where the bulk of Australia's military contribution operates, raise a number of issues for Australia's role in Afghanistan. In particular: the potential and perhaps unintended impact of any new lead nation on the relative improvements in security that have been achieved in Oruzgan province a possible demand for more Australian troops and greater flexibility in the way they are used in Afghanistan as the result of changes in US strategy; and the effectiveness of Australia's small but growing number of civilian and police personnel in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Australia

46. Problems to partnership: a plan for Australia-India strategic ties

Author:: Rory Medcalf
Publication Date:: 11-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Strategic ties between Australia and India keep falling short of expectations, despite strong growth in trade. Controversy over the welfare of Indian students has added to differences over uranium exports to cloud what should be promising links between two countries with many common concerns. The relationship will weather recent turbulence. But without major diplomatic initiatives soon, the prospects for a truly strategic partnership between these Indian Ocean democracies will be set back for years.
Topic:: Education, International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: India, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

47. Caught in the crossfire: the Pashtun tribes of Southeast Afghanistan

Author:: Tom Gregg
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: There is increased recognition of the importance of engaging tribes in Afghanistan, but the government of Afghanistan and the international community are yet to come up with a coherent and coordinated approach. While more effective tribal engagement won't work everywhere, there is an opportunity to engage more fully with Pashtun tribes in Afghanistan's southeast. A meaningful and well resourced tribal policy would help improve stability in this strategically important region and also help avoid any mismanagement that could make things worse.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

48. A G-20 caucus for East Asia

Author:: Stephen Grenville and Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: In September 2009 the Pittsburgh Summit designated the G-20 as the world's premier forum for international cooperation. The G-20's arrival at the apex of the international economic architecture gives East Asia a much greater presence at the top table of the world economy: six regional economies, including Australia, are members of the G-20, in contrast to the G7, which only had room for Japan. This increase in representation creates important new opportunities for the region. But making use of these opportunities requires significant increases in policy-making resources. Unfortunately, in many Asian economies, such resources are in short supply relative to the wide variety of pressing problems the region currently faces.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Australia/Pacific

49. Rebuilding Zimbabwe: Australia's role in supporting the transition

Author:: Joel Negin and Jolyon Ford
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What should Australia do to assist Zimbabwe's re-emergence? In March 2009, Australia became the first major donor country to provide assistance to the new power-sharing government in Zimbabwe. Given the pervading influence of hardline elements, many doubt the merits and viability of the 'inclusive government'. Ought Australia continue its support, accepting the risk of buttressing Mugabe and his regime? Or should Australia stand back and maintain pressure for a more acceptable government – at the risk of contributing to theinclusive government's failure?
Topic:: Bilateral Relations and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Africa, Australia/Pacific, and Zimbabwe

50. The sting of climate change

Author:: Sarah Potter
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Global climate change will intensify the already significant malaria and dengue problems in maritime Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands. Those countries with the fewest resources and poor public health infrastructure are likely to feel the impact of increasing disease the most acutely. Australia itself is a 'fringe country' to the expanding endemic zone of mosquito-borne diseases to its north. Climate change may well make more of northern Australia more vulnerable to malaria and dengue outbreaks.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Health
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia/Pacific

51. Engaging Pakistan

Author:: Claude Rakisits
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The late November terror attacks in Mumbai have once again thrown the spotlight onto Pakistan. The country had already been struggling with growing international pressure over the safe haven and support that the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan and international terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda were obtaining in Pakistan's troubled Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and North West Frontier Province. Claims that the Mumbai attacks were carried out by Pakistani nationals, perhaps linked to the terrorist group Lashkar–e-Taiba (LeT), will place even more pressure on Islamabad.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Diplomacy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia/Pacific

52. Shared Challenges and Solutions: Australia's Unique Contribution to the Future of African Development

Author:: Glenn Denning and Joel Negin
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The new Australian government has made a significant commitment to increasing its overseas development assistance (ODA) from 0.3% of gross national income (GNI) in the 2007-08 budget to 0.5% of GNI by 2015/16. This represents a return to the levels last seen in the 1970s that were eroded over the 1990s and early 2000s (Figure 1). Depending on the projected economic growth rate, some estimates foresee a tripling of ODA from the mid-2000s to 2015/16.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa and Australia/Pacific

53. Nuclear security: what else can Australia do?

Author:: Rory Medcalf
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia's Labor government, elected in November 2007, has a strong policy platform on many aspects of the nuclear security agenda of arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament. And Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has announced Australian sponsorship, with Japan, of an independent panel of international experts and eminent persons to generate new thinking about nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation, in the 'second track' tradition of the Canberra Commission and Japan's Tokyo Forum.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Asia, Australia, and Tokyo

54. So what? Matching policy to Australian interests in West Asia

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Before 2001, Australian policy in the region defined here as West Asia – that stretching from India's western borders across to the eastern shores of the Mediterranean, encompassing Southwest Asia, the Persian Gulf and the Levant – focused on two broad objectives: supporting American-led efforts to promote regional stability, and securing opportunities for Australian exports.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia

55. The dragon in the Pacific: more opportunity than threat

Author:: Fergus Hanson
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? China runs an opaque aid program in the Pacific that has fuelled suspicions about its motives in the region and that undermines efforts to improve accountability, governance and stability. Despite concerns about China's aid program, China and Australia share broadly similar interests in the region and Australia and other donors would gain from working with China to improve the quality of its aid and reduce its destabilising side effects. In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Fergus Hanson suggests several new approaches to engaging China on its aid program.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia

56. Why the Gulf matters: crafting an Australian security policy for the Gulf

Author:: Rodger Shanahan
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The government's decision to withdraw Australian combat elements from southern Iraq by the middle of 2008 has the potential to consign the Arabian Gulf region 1 to the periphery of Australian policy interests. There is a consequent temptation to focus our security policy on Australia's immediate region, or within West Asia only on Afghanistan where our combat forces will likely be operating for some time to come. To do so, however, flies in the face of our substantial, diverse and growing economic interests in the Gulf (including an upcoming Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement), our interests in counterterrorism and counter-proliferation, and our record of regularly deploying Australian Defence Force (ADF) elements into the region over the last 20 years. These factors, along with the government's recognition that '...the challenges (that) Australia faces will require us to be more internationally active, not less' 2 mean that, in an uncertain world where our strategic horizon extends beyond Southeast Asia, it is prudent to maintain and consider enhancing the diplomatic and security connections we have built up in the Gulf, albeit in a piecemeal fashion, over nearly two decades.
Topic:: Security and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, Arabia, Australia, and United Arab Emirates

57. Beyond good governance

Author:: Jenny Hayward-Jones
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The Pacific Islands region is not on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, the internationally agreed targets for improving human development by 2015. The Melanesian countries, which have the largest population, face the most significant challenges in attempting to meet the goals. In the Port Moresby Declaration of 6 March 2008, the Australian government promised to work jointly with Pacific Island countries to meet the goals in the context of new Pacific Partnerships for Development. While the Millennium Development Goals may not be the fairest measurement of the success of inputs from the Australian aid program, they provide a valuable universal mechanism of measuring development outcomes.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

58. Looking after Australians overseas

Author:: Hugh White
Publication Date:: 10-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? As more and more Australians travel and live overseas, the Australian Government finds itself under increasing pressure to provide consular help and support, especially in emergencies. Providing these consular services is a traditional role for government representatives abroad, but both the scale and the nature of the demand have grown significantly in recent years. The demand from Australians for evacuation from South Lebanon during the conflict there last year demonstrated how far community expectations of the nature and scale of consular help have increased. This raises two problems. First, there is an issue of expectation management; community expectations are starting to run ahead of what can practicably be provided. Second, there is a problem of resources and priorities. While the consular workload has grown, the resources of Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade have not, and the result has inevitably been a diversion of resources away from other diplomatic tasks. That is something Australia can ill afford.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:: Australia and Lebanon

59. Stopping a nuclear arms race between America and China

Author:: Hugh White
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia's interests in a peaceful and stable Asia-Pacific region are threatened by the risk of intensifying strategic nuclear competition between the US and China. This may seem a little surprising in the post-Cold War world. We have perhaps allowed ourselves to assume a little too easily that nuclear weapons ceased to matter much in relations between major powers after the Cold War was over. We have worried much more about the risk that they will be acquired by new players – rogue states or terrorists – who might not respond to the incentives and threats that shaped nuclear strategy between major powers during the Cold War.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Australia

60. Design faults: the Asia Pacific's regional architecture

Author:: Allan Gyngell
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: When the leaders from 21 Asia Pacific economies meet in Sydney for the APEC leaders' meeting in September, they will be elbowing for attention and relevance in an overcrowded field of regional organisations. Our problem is that there are too many regional forums, yet they still cannot do all the things we need.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Organization, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia/Pacific

61. Uranium for India: avoiding the pitfalls

Author:: Ron Walker
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The prospect of Australia's selling uranium to India offers major potential benefits both for our exports and our foreign policy. There is however a conundrum as to how this could be done in a way that advances rather than damages Australia's interest in the global enterprise to resist the spread of nuclear weapons and in a rules-based international order.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: India and Asia

62. HIV/AIDS: The looming Asia Pacific pandemic

Author:: Bill Bowtell
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The international effort to control the spread of the HIV pandemic is failing: new HIV caseloads are rising alarmingly in many parts of the Asia Pacific. For over 20 years we have known how to prevent the transmission of the HIV virus by persuading young people to make simple and sustainable changes in sexual practices and other risky behaviours. Yet despite the scientific evidence, many national governments are unable or unwilling to act in time to avert the problem.
Topic:: HIV/AIDS and Health
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia/Pacific

63. Reinventing 'West Asia': How the 'Middle east' and 'South Asia' Fit into Australia's Strategic Picture

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia's economic, political and strategic interests in the Middle East and South Asia are growing and policymakers are gradually reassessing the place of these regions in Australia's overall strategic calculus. There is a risk, however, that in this reassessment, the two regions will continue to be viewed distinctly - a distinction that is increasingly artificial in strategic terms.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

64. China and Taiwan in the South Pacific: diplomatic chess versus Pacific political rugby

Author:: Graeme Dobell
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The competition between China and Taiwan for diplomatic recognition is destabilising island states in the South Pacific, making Pacific politics more corrupt and violent. Solomon Islands offers the clearest evidence of what happens to an island state that becomes a battleground in this contest. Australia is in the front line in the South Pacific. Australia is budgeting billions of dollars for aid and governance in the South Pacific over the decade. Australia's aims in the region will bring it into sharper conflict with the interests being pursued by China and Taiwan.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

65. A long hot summer

Author:: William Maley and Daoud Yaqub
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: On 21 March each year, the people of Afghanistan celebrate the Spring festival of Nawruz. Families gather to mark the onset of the new season, and to wish each other well for the coming year. Yet this year, Nawruz is overshadowed by a gathering sense of apprehension. All the available evidence suggests that the opponents of the Karzai government and of its Coalition supporters are positioning themselves for their fiercest attacks ever. As the snow melts and ground becomes passable again, hundreds of foreign fighters are poised to strike against both the instrumentalities and symbols of the state, and the large proportion of the Afghan population that remains committed to the transition inaugurated by the Bonn Agreement of December 2001. This is not, however, a threat just to the security of Afghanistan. In a very real sense, it reflects a recrudescence of the al-Qaeda network and its affiliates, and thus challenges those countries and peoples who have fallen victim to al-Qaeda's brand of globalised terrorism. Afghanistan is the front line in confronting these forces, and if the wider world allows the struggle for Afghanistan to be lost, it could pay a heavy price.
Topic:: NATO, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Asia

66. Capital punishment and Australian foreign policy

Author:: Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia is an abolitionist country. Both the Australian Government and the Opposition are opposed to capital punishment. Australia engages in modest advocacy against the death penalty but most of Canberra's efforts are directed toward cases involving Australian citizens. These are likely continue to occur: our closest Asian neighbours retain the death penalty, and Australian nationals will probably continue to commit ciminal acts carrying this penalty. For example, the looming execution of Van Tuong Nguyen last year led to calls from Australian commentators for trade and business sanctions against Singapore, and charges of hypocrisy being levelled against Australia in the regional press.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia/Pacific

67. Geeing up the G-20

Author:: Mark P Thirlwell and Dr. Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Globalisation implies a big increase in the payoffs from successful cross-border economic cooperation. Yet the main international institutional mechanisms designed to facilitate such cooperation, the G7 and the IMF, are not up to it. Both the G7’s membership and the IMF’s governance structure significantly under-represent several key players in the modern global economy, a potentially fatal handicap when it comes to tackling some of the most pressing challenges now facing policymakers. Moreover, neither gives Australia a permanent seat at the top table.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

68. The next UN Secretary-General

Author:: Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: This Issues Brief assesses the relationship between the United Nations and Asia – both the UN's activities in Asia and the behaviour of Asian states at the UN. Dr Michael Fullilove, Program Director for Global Issues, reviews the current stances of the three major regional powers — China, India, and Japan — towards the UN, previews the September World Summit on UN reform, and examines the prospects for an Asian Secretary-General, which has the potential to thicken Asia's interactions with the UN.
Topic:: Development, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States and Asia

69. New rules for a new 'Great Game'

Author:: Anthony Bubalo and Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Strongly growing demand for oil, the sharp run up in prices since mid-2003 and tight supply, have seen energy insecurity return to the international policy agenda. Fears have been raised that China's emergence as a voracious consumer of oil and gas and a keen competitor in global energy markets might imperil the largely cordial relationship that has developed between Beijing and Washington over the last decade. There is also a risk that the competition for energy resources could feed into the less than cordial relations between China and Japan. The purpose of this Policy Brief is to examine the risks that the competition for oil resources might pose for international security, focusing in particular on the relationships between the United States, Middle East oil producers and major Northeast Asian energy consumers, and to propose a mechanism for defusing some of the risks that this competition could entail.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Organization, International Political Economy, and Oil
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Middle East

70. Football diplomacy

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? While Australian governments have successfully built pragmatic ties with Asian leaders, a popular dimension to our engagement with Asia has in many respects been missing. This didn’t matter greatly in the past, but today public opinion is increasingly a factor in foreign policy. Governments must influence individuals as well as elites to address global problems such as terrorism and disease and ‘branding’ has become critical to a state’s ability to attract trade, investment and international political support. But a new opportunity to deepen people-to-people links with Asia has arrived in the form of Australia’s recent admission into the Asian Football Confederation. For the first time, Australia will have a significant sporting relationship with Asia. The question is, how can Australia best use this opportunity to enhance its regional image and engagement?
Topic:: Diplomacy and Government
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia/Pacific

71. How To Saving APEC

Author:: Dr. Malcolm Cook and Allen Gyngell
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the Problem? The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, APEC, has served Australian interests very well since its establishment in 1989, but it has lost its early momentum and is confused about its purposes. It faces competition from the new East Asian Summit. In 2007, Australia will chair APEC and host its 21 leaders in Sydney. How can we ensure that APEC is in good shape for that meeting and that it continues to serve the interests of the Asia Pacific region?
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

72. Angels and Dragons: Asia, the UN, reform and the next Secretary-General

Author:: Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The relationship between the UN and Asia can seem unfamiliar and distant. Most of New York's energy is consumed by the Middle East and Africa rather than Northeast, South and Southeast Asia; the international organisation can seem Atlanticist in orientation. On the other side of the Pacific Ocean the strict view of state sovereignty adopted by many Asian capitals leads them to keep the UN at arm's length. As always, however, the story is more complex: we need to differentiate between the UN's work in Asia on the one hand, and Asian behaviour at the UN on the other. Since 1945, the UN has contributed to the Asian security order but only at the margins, its security role circumscribed by power politics and Asian approaches to security. By contrast, Asian states have always been keen to exercise their prerogatives in New York, viewing their UN activities as a marker of sovereignty and a source of prestige. The Brief reviews this history and sets out the current stances of the three major regional powers — China, India, and Japan — towards the UN.
Topic:: International Relations, International Organization, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, India, and Asia

73. Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The current fragile ceasefire between Palestinian militants and Israel has raised hopes of an end to four years of violence. To sustain that ceasefire both Israel and the Palestinian Authority must meet their respective commitments under the "Road Map for Middle bast Peace". For the PA this means preventing terrorist attacks against Israel and undertaking political, legal and security reforms. These reforms are also critical to meeting the Palestinian public's own demands for an end to lawlessness and corruption. Given Australia's expertise in legal and institutional development, the Australian government's commitment to promoting democracy and peace in the Middle bast and its sound relationship with both the PA and the government of Israel, Australia should lend what support it can to the Palestinian effort to establish strong foundations for a stable, prosperous and democratic Palestinian state.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Australia

74. Sensible climate policy

Author:: Warwick McKibbin
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The Kyoto Protocol enters into force on February 16, 2005. Nearly thirteen years after negotiations began at the Rio Earth Summit and seven years after the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated, this should be a cause for global celebration. Yet the basic tenets on which the Kyoto Protocol are built are flawed and leave it worryingly vulnerable to failure. Already proponents of Kyoto are looking for alternatives “beyond Kyoto”. It is no accident that it has taken so long for the Protocol to enter into force with so few of the major future greenhouse emitters effective participants.
Topic:: International Relations, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

75. Beyond Arafat

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Arafat may have suffered a lingering physical demise, but politically he has long been in decline. He lost much of his international credibility over his unwillingness to rein in Palestinian terrorism against Israel, and domestically his authority had gradually been eroded. While lacking an anointed heir, a succession plan is more or less in place. Political infighting is a possibility, though a desire for unity will probably prevail in the short term. But Arafat's successors will struggle to end the chaos and lawlessness into which the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have descended. Over the longer term Arafat's passing will remove the main obstacle to internal Palestinian reform. It has the potential to re-invigorate the peace process although it will not solve the fundamentals of the current impasse. It will also complicate Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plans for a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the West Bank, even if his instinct will be to press ahead.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East

76. India's energy needs

Author:: Nick Hordern
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: India's exploding demand for energy is confronting New Delhi with two important dilemmas, one internal and one external. India's internal dilemma is that to satisfy its energy needs, India must not only expand but also renovate its energy sector, a huge task. Moreover, New Delhi must balance accelerating the necessary reform of this sector with the need to avoid alienating important domestic constituencies. The external dilemma derives from the fact that India will only be able to meet part of its increased energy demand from its own domestic resources, and therefore will be increasingly forced to rely on energy imports. India is trying to secure its energy supplies in a hostile geo-political climate, since New Delhi's parlous relations with its neighbours make energy cooperation difficult. The resultant fears regarding the vulnerability of India's external sources of energy chime with a core principle of New Delhi's political culture, swadeshi (self-sufficiency), whose influence, while waning, retains its potency. Concerns regarding energy security are particularly prevalent in the case of oil, where India's dependence on imports is becoming acute. The proximity of the Persian Gulf to India's industrialised northwest makes it the main source of growing oil imports. But this in turn increases India's reliance on the unstable Gulf. In order to reduce this risk New Delhi will seek out oil from new energy provinces in the Atlantic Basin, Sudan, Russia and South East Asia. It will also turn to a new energy source - gas - and more imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be one result. India's energy needs have implications for Australia. India's growing demand for energy will see coal continue to dominate the energy mix, and as a result India's demand for imported coking coal, including from Australia, is also set to grow. At the same time, India's quest for diversity of supply means that at least some of India's increased LNG imports are likely to be Australian.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Sudan, India, Asia, New Delhi, Australia, and Southeast Asia

77. Energy insecurity: China, India and Middle East oil

Author:: Anthony Bubalo and Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The rapid expansion of their economies has seen China and India become voracious consumers of energy. Oil, much of it imported from the Middle East, has become an increasingly important part of their energy needs. Both governments are conscious that this growing reliance on one of the world's most unstable regions leaves their countries vulnerable to supply disruptions and/or price fluctuations. As a result, energy security has become a key foreign policy objective and, particularly in the case of China, is shaping their approach to the Middle East. This issues brief provides an overview of current energy demand trends and raises for discussion some of the potential longer term strategic implications of this growing dependence on Mid-East oil.
Topic:: Energy Policy
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, India, and Asia

78. The 'Khmer Islam' community in Cambodia and its foreign patrons

Author:: Milton Osborne
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Apart from brief references to the arrest in May 2003 of suspected members of Jemaah Islamiyah in Phnom Penh and the later revelation that Hambali (Riduan Isamuddin) had spent six months in Cambodia before being captured in Thailand, the international media have paid little attention to Cambodia's 'indigenous' Islamic community, the Khmer Islam (Islamic Cambodians), numbering around 500,000 in a total population of 12-13 million. Generally described as 'Chams', the majority are the descendants of immigrants from the once-powerful kingdom of Champa located on the central coast of modern Vietnam. But Cambodia's Islamic community also includes the descendants of Malay settlers, perhaps 15% of the total. Members of this latter group are known as Chvea. For the most part living apart from the ethnic Cambodian population both during colonial times (1863-1953) and following independence, the Khmer Islam community played little part in politics. During the Pol Pot regime (1975-79) members of the community suffered grievously, with an estimated 90,000 dying from executions, overwork and hunger and disease out of a total of250,000. Following the fall of Pol Pot the position of the Cambodian Islamic community has attracted the interest of co-religionists in the Middle East and Southeast Asia who have contributed substantial funds for the construction of mosques, the support of Koranic schools and financing of participation in the haj. At the same time there has been a substantial growth in the interchange between members of the Khmer Islam community and fellow Muslims in southem Thailand and Malaysia. Overall, the community remains generally poor and disadvantaged and so potentially unlnerable to external influences.
Topic:: International Relations and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia

79. Bush is from Mars, Kerry is from Mars too: The Presidential Election and U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:: Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: According to polling commissioned by the Lowy Institute, twice as many Australians think that US foreign policy is on the wrong track as think it is on the right track. Many observers argue that the direction of American policy will vary greatly depending on the outcome of the presidential election. Certainly, there are significant differences in style and substance between the two candidates, George W. Bush and John F. Kerry. However the similarities are as striking as the differences. External challenges, in particular the Iraq war and the war against terrorism, and internal pressures have combined to produce something of a convergence between the outlooks of foreign policy makers in both parties. In the event of a Bush victory, the failure of its foreign policy adventurism in the first term would probably make for a more centrist policy in the second term. In the event of a Kerry victory, the realities of the international system and the probable Republican control of the Senate would do the same. Whomever is elected, America is likely to pursue an assertive foreign policy involving the use of military force; there will less gleeful unilateralism and steroid-fuelled pre-emption than we have seen in the past four years, but it will still be a world away from the kind of strategy many observers are anticipating. From Australia's perspective, the fundamentals of our alliance with the US will ensure that it endures regardless of the result on 0 November. However the temperature of the relationship would probably be affected by a Kerry win. Given the task the senator has set himself of strengthening links with allied capitals, the relationship with Canberra would likely be less of a priority for him than for President Bush. On the other hand, the election of a new face in Washington would make other aspects of Australia's diplomatic life easier.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, America, and Australia

80. Transpacific trade imbalances: causes and cures

Author:: Warwick McKibbin, Park Yung Chul, and Jong-Wha Lee
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: This paper explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances. We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalances since 1997 is changes in saving-investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the U.S fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the 1997 financial crisis. Our simulation results show that a revaluation of East Asia's exchange rates by 10 percent (effectively a shift in monetary policy) cannot resolve the imbalances. We find East Asia's concerted efforts to stimulate aggregate demand can have significant impacts on trade balances globally, but the impact on the US trade balance is not large. US fiscal contraction is estimated to have large impacts on the US trade position overall and on the bilateral trade balances with East Asian economies. These results suggest that in order to improve the transpacific imbalance, macroeconomic adjustment will need to be made on both sides of the Pacific. lowy institute for international policy.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Israel and East Asia

81. The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: China in the limelight

Author:: John Bowan
Publication Date:: 08-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Beijing's successful bid for the 2008 Olympic Games gives China a unique opportunity to signal its emergence as a leading player in the mainstream of international affairs. The Games will provide a unique opportunity to showcase to the international public, as well as to foreign governments and international business, China's technical and organisational capabilities, its cultural and social achievements, and its standing and potential as a global economic power and partner. The ongoing strong commitment to the Games by the national Government, and the rapid and efficient progress made to date by the Beijing Olympic organisers, are impressive; from a technical point of view, China's challenging Olympic project is on track. The Games will make some limited contribution to the extraordinary economic and technological development China is making, particularly in environmental protection. Similarly, the Games have the potential to make some incremental contribution to improving human rights in China. Their significance as a force for change in this area should not be overestimated, however, and the evidence is that the Olympic influence on China's human rights has so far been limited. Despite the good cooperation at the Olympic level that has developed between China and Taiwan in recent years, the hosting of the Games would not stand in the way of drastic action by China if Taiwan pursued independence beyond the limits of its tolerance. Australia's cooperative Olympic links with China, developed during Beijing's bid, add a valuable dimension to the strong and important relationship between the two countries.
Topic:: International Relations, Civil Society, and Development
Political Geography:: China and Asia

82. Israel's withdrawal from Gaza: a role for Australia?

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 05-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Despite its defeat in a Likud Party referendum on 2 May, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's proposal for a unilateral withdrawal from settlements and military positions in the Gaza Strip remains very much on the Israeli national agenda. For Sharon a withdrawal would help shorten Israel's security lines, block any alternate diplomatic initiatives being forced on Israel and win important policy changes in US positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Indeed despite Palestinian suspicions about the proposal, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza could, if executed in an orderly and coordinated fashion, ultimately help reinvigorate a moribund peace process. There remain, however, a number of questions surrounding the plan, not least of which is whom Israel would coordinate any pull-out with, and who or what would fill any political and security vacuum left by Israel's withdrawal. Solving both sets of problems is likely to require some form of international intervention. If this occurs Australia would probably find itself on a short list of countries who would both be capable of contributing to such a sensitive and complex mission and whose membership of such a force would be acceptable to Israel, the Palestinians and the United States.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Australia/Pacific

83. Election Watch: Japan — Japan's party system: shifting the political axis, releasing economic reform

Author:: Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Changes in Japan's party system offer new hope for Japan's long-delayed economic reform as the axis of voting power accelerated its shift to the urban areas. The upcoming Upper House1 elections will provide another opportunity to see how far these changes have come and how permanent they are. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated post-war Japanese politics due to the party's overwhelming support in Japan's declining rural areas. The LDP's iron grip on the rural vote has created and been maintained by a nexus of interests between LDP politicians, favoured construction companies and rural voters. This rural public works "glue" has been one of the main reasons the Japanese government has been unable to address its drastically declining fiscal position. The political power of Japan's small farming sector also explains why Japan's bilateral and multilateral free trade diplomacy has not progressed. The November 9 Lower House election results and the rise of a real alternative to the LDP promise to help Prime Minister Koizumi's three-year fight to "modernise" the LDP and make it more appealing to urban and younger voters. November 9's results also suggest that if Koizumi loses this intra-LDP battle, then in the next Lower House elections the LDP will lose. So whether Koizumi is successful or not, economic reform chances in Japan have been boosted. Australia's largest trading partner is better placed for free trade talks bilaterally and globally and to address its worrying fiscal situation, the largest threat looming over Japan's future prosperity.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Australia

84. The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: a preliminary assessment

Author:: Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: On 8 February Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile concluded an agreed text for an Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement. This Issues Brief provides a preliminary assessment of the agreement, based on the limited information now available.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

85. The international economy in 2003: managing economic imbalances in an integrated world

Author:: Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: This Issues Brief suggests that a key theme over the past year has been the management of external imbalances in a world economy that is not only increasingly integrated but which is simultaneously undergoing a sustained geographic shift in the distribution of economic weight towards Asia. Using this theme as an organising principle, it reviews several major economic developments including US current account adjustment, international exchange rate adjustment in response to that process, growing Sino-US trade tensions, the increasing focus on international outsourcing and the stresses facing the current multilateral trading round. The Brief concludes by arguing that many of these same themes will influence international economic prospects over the coming year.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

86. Revaluing the renminbi: a case of 'déjà vu all over again'?

Author:: Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: There are strong parallels between today's US-China tensions over trade and US-Japan economic relations in the 1980s.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS