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2. Sea Change for Europe’s Security Order: Three Future Scenarios
- Author:
- Christian Mölling, Tyson Barker, David Hagebölling, Afra Herr, and Kai Kornhuber
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The war of aggression that Russia launched against Ukraine in February has destroyed the European security order. The German government has defined this moment as a sea change (Zeitenwende) for its foreign and security policy. It still must envisage and shape a new order. Key factors are whether Europe will be united in strategic policy areas, and how Russia will position itself.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Science and Technology, European Union, and Geoeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe
3. Strict and Uniform: Improving EU Sanctions Enforcement
- Author:
- Kim B. Olsen and Simon Fasterkjær Kjeldsen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- For as long as the EU has been using sanctions as a foreign policy instrument, countering violations has been a challenge. With the EU rapidly expanding the breadth and depth of its sanctions, its institutions and member states must find ways to ensure stricter and more uniform enforcement to deter violations, enhance efficiency, and ensure a more level playing field for economic actors. The stakes are high: the success of the EU’s response to Russia’s military aggression hinges largely on effective sanctions, and the long-term legitimacy of the tool itself depends on its enforcement.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Governance, Sanctions, European Union, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe
4. Gas and Energy Security in Germany and Central and Eastern Europe
- Author:
- Guntram Wolff and Alexandra Gritz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s weaponization of gas supplies caused a shock to the energy security of Central and Eastern Europe. Countries responded by increasing alternative gas supplies and LNG import capacity. Gas flows shifted from the east-west axis to west-east and north-south axes. In the short term, the usage of coal is rising; in the longer term, renewable and nuclear energy. Mitigating the effects of this shock requires the EU to prioritize policies that foster the integrity and security of its energy market.
- Topic:
- Security, Natural Resources, European Union, Gas, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Germany, and Central Europe
5. Four Scenarios for the Crisis in Belarus
- Author:
- András Rácz, Cristina Gherasimov, and Milan Nič
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- As protests continue to galvanize Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko is consolidating his grip on power. Volatile domestic dynamics – and Russia’s reactions to them – will shape the discredited regime’s future. This paper outlines four possible scenarios for Belarus up to one year from now. They include options for Russia and the EU, whose strategic objectives differ, but whose short-term interests align: preventing bloodshed, avoiding open geopolitical conflict, and preparing for a post-Lukashenko transition.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, European Union, Geopolitics, Protests, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus
6. The Rule of Law in the EU Budget: Backing Down Is Too High a Price for the EU to Pay
- Author:
- Milan Nič, Roderick Parkes, Siawomir Sierakowski, and Shahin Vallée
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Hungary and Poland are threatening to veto the EU’s new budgetary arrangements if other governments apply the rule of law mechanism to them. It is becoming clear, however, that the new EU financial framework, and the much-heralded recovery fund, are more vital to Eastern Europe than to Europe’s South and that time is not on the side of the former. Awareness of this fact allows for a cool assessment of the pair’s bargaining positions – and of the precedent that any hasty resolution to the crisis will set.
- Topic:
- Government, Budget, European Union, and Rule of Law
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Eastern Europe