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102. Mitigating the Security Risks Posed by a Near-Nuclear Iran
- Author:
- Matthew Kroenig
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- US President Barack Obama has called the international dispute over Iran's advanced nuclear program "one of the leading security challenges of our time." Fitting for a problem of this magnitude, analysts have thoroughly examined the major policy options for addressing the challenge, including most notably, diplomacy, containment, and military strikes. Lost in this focus on the broad policy options to prevent or deal with a nuclear-armed Iran, however, is the acknowledgement that Iran already possesses a latent nuclear weapons capability and that this capability poses several threats to international peace and security at present. Moreover, it is almost certain that Iran will retain such a capability in the short to medium term regardless of how the nuclear diplomacy progresses-and even if the international community and Iran agree to a "comprehensive" nuclear deal. Rather than an exclusive focus on broad strategies for preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, therefore, it would also be prudent to identify and mitigate against the challenges posed by Iran's extant latent nuclear capability, a capability that will likely remain in place even if Washington's policy of prevention is successful.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Iran
103. The Die Is Cast: Confronting Russian Aggression in Eastern Europe
- Author:
- Christopher Musselman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Ukraine crisis demonstrates that European security can no longer be taken for granted and that NATO and the broader transatlantic community are struggling to address emerging security challenges. Whether Russia is classified revanchist, expanding its sphere of influence, or seeking to create regional hegemony, Putin's actions in both Crimea and eastern Ukraine are a stark reminder that the era of geopolitical competition in Europe is far from over. The transatlantic community must be ready to deal with similar challenges in the decades ahead.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
104. The Case for a New Federalism in Libya
- Author:
- Karim Mezran and Mohamed Eljarh
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The French intellectual Jean Baudrillard once said, “It is always the same: once you are liberated, you are forced to ask who you are.” In the case of Libya, this question should have been at the center of every political initiative immediately following the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi's regime. Libya's new leadership had the opportunity to convene a national dialogue in an effort to explore questions of national identity and a new vision for a national mission. Unfortunately, the Libyan elites who emerged from the 2011 civil war did not make national dialogue a priority, opting to appease local forces—armed and political—rather than to undertake the difficult but critical task of nation-building.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
105. Cybersecurity and Tailored Deterrence
- Author:
- Franklin D. Kramer and Melanie J. Teplinsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Cyber has become the new conflict arena. It ranks as one of the greatest national security challenges facing the United States for three reasons. First, as the revelations about the National Security Agency's (NSA's) activities suggest, cyber offense has far outpaced cyber defense. Second, cyber capabilities are prevalent worldwide and increasingly are being used to achieve the strategic goals of nations and actors adverse to the United States. Third, it is highly unlikely that cyber espionage and other cyber intrusions will soon cease. While the NSA disclosures focus on the United States and the United Kingdom, there is little doubt that China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and others are engaged in significant cyber activities. The fundamental question is whether the cyber realm can, consistent with the national interest, be made more stable and secure.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, and North Korea
106. Breaking Taboos: Youth Activism in the Gulf States
- Author:
- Kristin Diwan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Shaped by a new media environment and emboldened by the early success of the Arab Awakening, activist youth are bringing new forms of civic engagement and political contestation to the Arab states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The emerging Gulf youth movements are distinctive in their comprehensive critique of the ruling system and in their dismissal of existing political leaders as incapable of delivering fundamental political reform.
- Topic:
- Youth Culture and Social Movement
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
107. Zooming in on Syria: Adapting US Policy to Local Realities
- Author:
- Faysal Itani and Nathaniel Rosenblatt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- As the conflict in Syria enters its fourth year, US policy has consistently failed to achieve its stated object: a negotiated political transition based on the mutual consent of the regime and opposition. The United States and its Western allies have focused on summits and high-level diplomacy as the most effective means to that laudable end. This approach ignores an essential missing ingredient: an opposition able to coordinate different anti-regime forces, exercise agency on their behalf, and provide decent local governance, without which Syrians will continue to suffer and fight irrespective of whether the regime is overthrown.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Syria, and North America
108. The Economic Consequences of the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Mohsin Khan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The popular uprisings that swept the Middle East in early 2011 dramatically altered the political landscape of the region with the overthrow of autocratic regimes in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen. These uprisings gave hope to citizens that this was the beginning of a long-overdue process of democratic transition in the Arab world. The monarchies of Jordan and Morocco also went through profound political changes, even though the rulers maintained their power. While the promise of democracy in the Arab transition countries was seen as the driving force in the uprisings, economic issues were an equally important factor. The explosive combination of undemocratic regimes, corruption, high unemployment, and widening income and wealth inequalities all created the conditions for the uprisings. The citizens of these countries thus expected governments to simultaneously address their political and economic demands.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia
109. Egypt's Labor Dilemma
- Author:
- Mustansir Barma
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- “Bread, freedom, and social justice,” is the familiar slogan chanted across the Middle East and North Africa since the Arab uprisings erupted in December 2010. Labor issues fit into this trifecta: bread is a symbol of earning a decent living, freedom is tied to worker rights such as assembly and industrial action, and social justice is linked to dignity derived from employment and better working conditions. Egyptian workers remain frustrated about the lack of progress in achieving the labor rights that are fundamental to this rallying cry.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt
110. Ten Ideas for Smarter NATO Missile Defense
- Author:
- Patrick O'Reilly
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- NATO leaders have cited missile defense as an example of applying the principles of the Smart Defense initiative endorsed at the 2012 NATO Summit to enhance collective defense at minimum cost. As ballistic missiles continue to proliferate and become more accessible to both state and nonstate actors, it is important to foster global partnerships to pursue NATO's missile defense mission and protect North American and European interests. NATO should consider opportunities to further apply the principles of Smart Defense now to reduce future costs of deterring and countering missile proliferation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Asia, and North America
111. Getting Democracy Promotion Right in Egypt
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Three years into Egypt's post-Mubarak transition, the near-term prospects for democratization are bleak. The military-security alliance that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's first freely elected president, in July 2013 is consolidating power. Government repression against the Islamist opposition, and more recently against secular dissenters, is harsher and society is more polarized than in any point in recent memory.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, and Egypt
112. Negotiating Libya's Constitution
- Author:
- Duncan Pickard and Karim Mezran
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Among the many problems facing Libya's troubled transition to democracy is the challenge of constructing a state in a country with a legacy of weak institutions. Muammar al-Qaddafi's brutal forty-two-year dictatorship employed a policy of de-institutionalization, leaving the presence of the state feeble throughout the country. Those organs that were powerful, including the secret security apparatus, lost their leader with Qaddafi's fall in 2011, leaving a power vacuum that nonstate actors have scrambled to fill. Some of the most influential political groups in Libya today are militias formed during and after the revolution. Although some are loosely affiliated with the ministries of interior or defense, most, if not all, do not demonstrate any particular loyalty to the government. Militias have kidnapped the prime minister (the militia responsible called it an “arrest”), assassinated judges and police officers, physically occupied the office of the justice minister, and engaged in an urban battle in Tripoli. They also seek to advance their political interests—which vary, but include influence over officials, rent seeking, and some Islamist agendas—with threats against ministries or officials. And yet the state relies on militias to provide essential security services such as running checkpoints and protecting the airport because no ministry force is up to the task. The ascendancy of these militias points to two troubling realities: the state lacks a monopoly over the use of force and the country faces an ongoing deterioration of the rule of law.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
113. The Hard Reality for International Climate Agreements in the United States
- Author:
- Bill Brownell and Scott Stone
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The release of the second installment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report on March 31, 2014, provoked the usual calls for urgent and immediate action in response to climate change, including in particular at the international level in the form of a new climate treaty built upon domestic regulatory regimes. Irrespective of whether these calls for action are overly strident or carefully measured, the law plays a central role. In almost any discussion, the breadth and stringency of national and sub-national regulations and the extent to which a treaty can make them “legally binding” assumes paramount importance. But this emphasis on law is misplaced, because it runs headlong into the hard reality that would confront any international climate agreement in the US Senate. And given the soaring use of coal around the world, it also draws attention and resources away from far more achievable opportunities to develop and deploy advanced coal technologies that would allow the world's most abundant, accessible, and affordable energy resource to meet critical energy needs in balance with each country's environmental, economic, and security priorities.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and North America
114. NATO's Framework Nations: Capabilities for an Unpredictable World
- Author:
- Franklin D. Kramer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- As the Ukraine crisis demonstrates, in an unpredictable world, military capabilities can be a critical factor. The longstanding goals of the United States and its NATO allies have been to create a Europe whole and free, and globally to support such goals through collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security. Ukraine raises the issue of how best to accomplish those ends. As part of the Ukraine response, there have been and will continue to be diplomatic, economic, and energy efforts. However, one key element will be to create more effective integrated capabilities that will support NATO's military tasks, and thus the values and goals that NATO represents.
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Ukraine, and North America
115. Turkish-Iranian Rapprochement and the Future of European and Asian Energy
- Author:
- Pinar Dost-Niyego and Orhan Taner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The recent events in Ukraine have revived the question of European dependence on Russian natural gas. The security of Europe's natural gas supply has been a consistently important issue in Russian-European Union (EU) relations. Russia provided 34 percent of EU gas in 2012, and Russian policies can have a direct impact on EU supplies. After the West-Russian confrontation over Ukraine, a lot has been said about the 'US shale gas revolution' and the possibilities of the United States becoming an energy exporter for future European energy needs. Although US energy independence seems to promise new perspectives for future European energy security, as well as for the balance of power in the Middle East, this is not for this decade. We cannot expect that the European Union would be able to cut off all of its energy relations with Russia, but we can foresee–or at least agree–that the European Union should diversify its natural gas supplies.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia
116. Disrupt or Be Disrupted: How Governments Can Develop Decisive Military Technologies
- Author:
- James Hasik and Byron Callan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Just what makes a military technology disruptive? How does one know who will disrupt, and who will be disrupted? How can we aim to develop disruptive technologies, and how can we spot them before others use them to disrupt our security? Recent studies suggest that five factors matter most in developing those technologies into real military capabilities: financial resources, industrial readiness, systems integration, cultural receptivity, and organizational capacity. Prototyping and field experimentation leverage all these factors, and help make the potentially disruptive ultimately decisive in war.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Governance
117. The Challenge of Federalism in Yemen
- Author:
- Rafat Al-Akhali
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The 2011 protests against corruption, lack of accountability, limited access to basic services, and the extreme centralization of power transformed Yemen. In November of that year, the main political parties signed a transition plan, brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council, which provided the framework and process to achieve a peaceful transfer of power. Two of the key steps agreed upon in the transition plan were the convening of the National Dialogue Conference (NDC), followed by drafting a new constitution based on the outcomes of the National Dialogue.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Government, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
118. No Arab Spring for Algeria
- Author:
- Karim Mezran and Mohsin Khan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The popular uprisings that swept the Arab world in 2011 passed Algeria by. While there were sporadic street demonstrations calling for political change, principally in the country's capital Algiers, they quickly petered out due to lack of support from the general public. Unlike in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, the political power system in Algeria remained intact. The autocratic government of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who has been the president since 1999, retained complete control, culminating in his reelection on April 17 for a fourth term despite his obviously failing health.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Governance, Social Movement, Popular Revolt, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Arabia, North America, Egypt, and Tunisia
119. Easing US and EU Sanctions on Iran
- Author:
- Kenneth Katzman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since the seizure of US hostages in Iran following the 1979 revolution, the US government has imposed a succession of economic penalties against the Islamic Republic. The complexity and severity of these sanctions intensified following Iran's resumption of a uranium enrichment program in 2006. However, there are a variety of ways to provide extensive sanctions relief should there be a deal placing long-term restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, and North America
120. Losing Syria and Iraq to Jihadists
- Author:
- Faysal Itani
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Jihadists are steadily capturing territory and resources and establishing a state in Syria and Iraq. The most capable jihadist group, the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), now controls swathes of territory, energy resources, and sophisticated military hardware in both countries. Although the extremists are currently occupied with fighting other nonregime armed groups and the Syrian and Iraqi regimes, these efforts are a means to an end: building a state from which to confront and target the United States, its allies, and its interests in the region. These jihadist groups also bring boundless suffering to the populations they control, and serve as a magnet for and inspiration to jihadists worldwide.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
121. Inside Libya's Wild West
- Author:
- Valerie Stocker
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The fall of Muammar Qaddafi's regime in 2011 after four decades of authoritarian rule gave rise to numerous armed groups competing for territory and influence. More than three years since the uprising began, persistent instability threatens not only Libya's fragile democratic transition but also security in North Africa and the Sahel zone. Tripoli is at the center of a power struggle among competing political factions. Benghazi is the scene of ever more brutal political violence, which now risks drawing the country into a civil war. Then there is the southwestern province of Fezzan, Libya's "Wild West," where human trafficking and smuggling thrive and transnational jihadists hide.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Governance, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
122. Will Brazil Get What It Expects from the World Cup?
- Author:
- Ricardo Sennes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Like any other international mega-event, hosting the FIFA World Cup brings the promise of a positive long-term legacy for Brazil. It is a unique opportunity for visibility among more than 3 billion people worldwide who will either attend or watch the games on television. The exposure from the games has the potential to draw national and international investments before, during, and after the thirty-two teams compete for the Cup.
- Topic:
- Civil Society and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
123. Why Nuclear Deterrence Still Matters to NATO
- Author:
- Walter B. Slocombe and Matthew Kroenig
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- NATO's Strategic Concept (SC), adopted at the Lisbon Summit in November 2010, includes a number of propositions that define NATO's nuclear policy. Most fundamentally, NATO's most important strategy document declares that "[d]eterrence, based on an appropriate mix of nuclear and conventional capabilities, remains a core element of" the Alliance's "overall strategy."
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and International Security
124. Morocco's Emergence as a Gateway to Business in Africa
- Author:
- J. Peter Pham and Ricardo Rene Laremont
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Africa is home to seven of the world's ten fastest-growing economies. By 2050, the continent's population is expected to overtake India's and China's, doubling to two billion people. Moreover, those two billion Africans will be younger than their counterparts in every other region of the world and will account for one in four workers globally by mid-century. Africa's rich endowment of natural resources, including about 30 percent of the world's known reserves of minerals and 60 percent of the planet's uncultivated arable land, is already well-known to investors.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and Morocco
125. The US and the Gulf States: Uncertain Partners in a Changing Region
- Author:
- Richard LeBaron
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Two important issues are testing relations between the United States and its allies in the Gulf: democratic transitions in the Arab world and regional security. Their outcome will either strengthen or disrupt what has been a long-term partnership. The United States and its Gulf allies are well into their second year of reacting to, and attempting to influence, the rapid political change in the Middle East and North Africa, but their efforts are informed by differing motivations. Meanwhile the looming threat of Iran attaining nuclear weapons has brought greater urgency to efforts to enhance Gulf security, but also some disquiet in the Gulf about any possible US deal with Iran that would serve global non-proliferation interests but threaten their vital regional security interests.
- Topic:
- Democratization, International Security, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, North Africa, and North America
126. An Economic NATO: A New Alliance for a New Global Order
- Author:
- C. Boyden Gray
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of World War II, the greatest concern facing the United States and its European allies was restraining the Soviet Union and preventing the spread of communism. Cooperation on military security was paramount, and the United States and Europe rose to the challenge by creating NATO, a new type of multilateral defense agreement. Once again, the transatlantic relationship is at a new and perilous crossroads. But now it is economic, rather than military security that is at risk. Crisis grips the economies of Europe, just as the United States, mired in historic levels of unemployment in the wake of the 2008 recession, is rethinking its strategic priorities and place in the world. As before, fears mount concerning the future of liberal democracy and Western capitalism. The question is whether transatlantic cooperation will again rise to the challenge.
- Topic:
- NATO, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Financial Crisis, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and North America
127. Shale Oil and Gas and the Middle East
- Author:
- Odeh Aburdene
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- It is in the interest of the world community to increase all energy resources—oil, gas, coal, solar, green, and nuclear. There are 7 billion people on this planet today. By 2100 that number will rise to 10 billion people. We can only meet their needs by maximizing energy production and using it in the most efficient means available.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Biofuels
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
128. A Strategy for US Engagement in the Middle East: Contain Threats, Embrace Dignity
- Author:
- Michele Dunne and Barry Pavel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In President Barack Obama's first term, his administration withdrew US forces from Iraq, ratcheted up pressure to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions, began the adjustment to relations with post-authoritarian governments in Arab countries including Egypt, struggled with how best to handle an increasingly bloody rebellion in Syria, and attempted to restart diplomacy on the Israeli/Palestinian problem. At the beginning of his second term, US interests are at significant risk as the region continues to undergo profound changes, and Arab and European allies are asking for greater US engagement. The region also presents the United States with unanticipated opportunities, such as the development of Arab democracies and a reduction in Iranian influence. The challenge facing the United States is how to lead without dominating, and how to protect and promote US interests without absolving other actors of responsibility. Thus, the task for this administration is to develop a strategy: to match the president's positive rhetoric with meaningful follow-up in terms of diplomacy, assistance, and security cooperation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Security, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and North America
129. Six Months of Georgian Dreams: The State of Play and Ways Forward
- Author:
- Laura Linderman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Georgia experienced its first ever democratic transfer of power on October 1 when the ruling United National Movement (UNM) conceded its defeat to the opposition Georgian Dream coalition (GD). Building on this democratic success will not be easy and will require navigating an awkward cohabitation between Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili's new government and President Mikheil Saakashvili, each of whom have significant executive functions despite competing party agendas and the fact the two leaders personally dislike each other.
- Topic:
- Regime Change, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
130. Does Beijing Have a Strategy? China's Alternative Futures
- Author:
- Banning Garrett and Robert A. Manning
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- As China's National Party Congress gathered in early March to anoint Xi Jinping and the next generation of Chinese leaders, Beijing's behavior at home and abroad strongly suggested that, while they have strategic goals, they have no strategy for how to achieve them. Beijing seems unable to change course from following a development model it has outgrown and pursuing assertive, zero-sum foreign policies that are counter to its long-term interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Corruption, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
131. Lowering the Price of Russian Gas: A Challenge for European Energy Security
- Author:
- Adnan Vatansever and David Koranyi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Europe's energy discourse has been unjustifiably preoccupied with concerns about potential physical disruptions of Russian gas. Yet, the real challenge for European-Russian energy relations, and in fact, for European energy security, lies in settling on a price that leaves both sides content. While Europe will come under increasing pressure to acquire affordable energy resources to enhance its competitiveness, Gazprom may find it increasingly difficult to deliver gas at lower prices in the coming years.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
132. Egypt's Litigious Transition: Judicial Intervention and the Muddied Road to Democracy
- Author:
- Mahmoud Hamad
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Egypt's judiciary has played a central role in the country's transition since the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. The political forces that led the uprising agreed on almost nothing except their profound rejection of dictatorship, corruption, and injustice. The military generals who took over from Mubarak lacked the imagination or the will to set out a clear roadmap to democracy. Ultimately, it fell to the judiciary to shape many aspects of the transition. In the legally murky climate of the past two years, judges drew fire from forces across the political spectrum, issuing decisions affecting the public perception of their objectivity.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Regime Change, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
133. Post-revolutionary Politics in Libya: Inside the General National Congress
- Author:
- Karim Mezran, Fadel Laman, and Eric Knecht
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Piecing together the nascent political picture in Libya is essential to understanding the current roadblocks to democracy. Unlike Egypt, no single party, force, or personality anchors the political scene. Unlike Tunisia, no coalition provides a gauge of the relative strength of political groups. In Libya, where parties were banned even before the reign of Muammar al-Qaddafi, post-revolution politics remain fluid, loyalties fleeting, and ideological fault lines less defined than in its North African neighbors. Nevertheless, ten months after the country's first free elections, an early snapshot of the contemporary political scene is coming into focus.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Regime Change, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, and Tunisia
134. The Political Kaleidoscope Turns Again in Crisis-Challenged Iran: 2013 Elections
- Author:
- Barbara Slavin and Yasmin Alem
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Iran has never had what the West would regard as free, fair, and competitive elections. Some would point to the brief periods following the 1906 Constitutional Revolution and between the end of World War II and 1953, when a CIA-backed coup re-installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, as possible exceptions to this rule. The upcoming presidential elections this June will be no such exception, with candidates restricted to eight proven loyalists to the regime. Nevertheless, the vote will be an important barometer of the stability and durability of an embattled regime that is increasingly unpopular domestically and isolated internationally. The elections will also produce a new turn of the kaleidoscope within Iran's shrinking political elite, as existing factions break apart and regroup. The next president is likely to be more moderate in tone, if not in policy, and more competent and less divisive than the outgoing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This could have important implications not just for the country's domestic course but for Iran's confrontation with the United States and the international community over the nuclear question.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
135. US-Iran Cultural Engagement: A Cost Effective Boon to US National Security
- Author:
- Barbara Slavin and Ramin Asgard
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This issue brief of the Atlantic Council's Iran Task Force outlines the 179-year history of US contacts with Iran, which have experienced periods of breakdown but currently are continuing at a low level despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties. It also recommends actions to advance these exchanges as a national security imperative—especially as the nuclear dispute with the Iranian government could well persist.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North America
136. Beyond Spillover: Syria's Role in Lebanon's Drift Toward Political Violence
- Author:
- Faysal Itani and Sarah Grebowkski
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- To describe the increase in violence and instability in Lebanon since the civil war in Syria began as simply a spillover is misleading. it risks casting Lebanon as a victim to negative externalities divorced from its own political dysfunction. in truth, Lebanon's troubles long preceded the war in Syria, and the conflict's more complex and pernicious effect on Lebanon has been the exposure and deepening of pre-existing rifts among Lebanese.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Human Rights, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
137. Syria's War Threatens Lebanon's Fragile Economy
- Author:
- Faysal Itani
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Syrian civil war is accelerating Lebanon's political and institutional decline and poses a serious long-term threat to its economy. Lebanon has largely been spared the political upheavals of the Arab Spring, its fractious political system is intact, and the weakness of its central government means there is no authoritarian order to revolt against. However, Lebanon's own political dysfunction, the regional powers' stakes in Lebanese politics, and their anxieties over the geopolitical challenges that the Arab uprisings pose magnify the economic dangers of Syria's disintegration.
- Topic:
- Economics and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
138. Electoral Politics Under Tunisia's New Constitution
- Author:
- Duncan Pickard
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Tunisians are waiting for a new constitution to cement a democratic order after decades of dictatorship. The constitution-making process has dominated politics since the January 2011 revolution; what can be expected when the constitution is complete? How will presidential and parliamentary elections proceed under this new constitution, expected early next year? Although the constitution will initiate a form of legal stability, party politics and new institutional arrangements could converge to complicate decision-making and obscure consensus.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Regime Change, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- North Africa
139. Iran: How a Third Tier Cyber Power Can Still Threaten the United States
- Author:
- Barbara Slavin and Jason Healey
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- When most people think of the "military option" against Iran, they imagine a US attack that takes out Iran's most important known nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Arak, and Isfahan. They expect Iran to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, sending missiles into Israel, and/or supporting terrorist attacks on US personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and North America
140. Labor, Technology, and Innovation in Europe: Facing Global Risk through Increased Resiliency
- Author:
- Robert A. Manning and Peter Engelke
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- After the economic crisis ground global business to a halt, leaders on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean began to recognize that ensuring a stable and prosperous future would require building greater resiliency to structural risks. In the coming decades, episodic banking crises and regional economic imbalances will interrupt global growth. Robotics and computer networks will upend entire industrial sectors. Stressed global ecosystems, a changing climate, pandemics, and demographic decline will all add other risks. While no one can yet say how these risks may manifest, they will shape the future.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Europe
141. Rising Robotics and the Third Industrial Revolution
- Author:
- Robert A. Manning
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Six years ago, Bill Gates created a buzz in the high tech community when he published an article in Scientific American suggesting robotics was becoming the next "new thing." Entitled "A Robot in Every Home," the Microsoft cofounder's essay argued presciently that the state of robotics paralleled that of the computer industry in the 1970s when it approached a tipping point, launching the PC revolution.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health, Science and Technology, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- America
142. Mutually Assured Stability: Establishing US-Russia Security Relations for a New Century
- Author:
- Celeste Wallander
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Obama administration's goals for arms control and security cooperation with Russia are the right ones, but they cannot be achieved as long as US-Russian strategic stability is in question. Unless leaders in both capitals confront the new requirements for strategic stability in the twenty-first century, they will fail to seize the opportunity for further arms reductions and enhanced national security.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
143. Foreign Policy for an Urban World: Global Governance and the Rise of Cities
- Author:
- Peter Engelke
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Cities are shaping our collective fate in nearly every respect. As the predominant locus of human settlement, cities already wield considerable power and will continue to increase their influence in the decades to come. Cities generate most of the world's wealth. They are the places where citizenship and political participation are defined, redefined, and contested. They are the sites where global challenges ranging from climate change and natural resource depletion to international security problems are felt. In other words, we have seen the future, and it is urban. If humankind's most pressing challenges are to be solved during this century, the world's foreign and security policy establishments must not only become more cognizant of mass urbanization, but begin creating the processes that will productively integrate cities within global governance structures. These policy establishments are already behind the curve, for cities have been going about building parallel global governance structures on their own for some time now. They have become important actors in shaping global politics, helping to forge new patterns of transnational relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Security, Governance, and Urbanization
144. Jordan's Youth: Avenues for Activism
- Author:
- Danya Greenfield
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- While Jordanians are focused on the conflict raging in neighboring Syria and the prospect of violence spilling over onto Jordanian soil, below the surface the same kind of political, economic, and social grievances that launched a wave of uprisings in the Arab world are present and intensifying in Jordan with each passing day. As calls for political change swept through Cairo, Tunis, Tripoli, and Sanaa in the spring of 2011, periodic protests emerged throughout Jordan as well, where a diverse mix of people came out in calls for greater freedoms and economic opportunity. Many of the anti-government demonstrations were led by youth, representing a broad spectrum from conservative East Bank tribes to the urban Palestinian-Jordanian elite, and the normally politically apathetic youth population seemed engaged in unprecedented ways. Young Jordanians struggle to land decent jobs, find affordable housing, and save enough money to get married; with 55 percent of the population under the age of twenty-five, and a 26 percent unemployment rate among males between fifteen and twenty-five years old, there is reason to be cognizant about youth discontent emerging in unexpected or critical moments of pressure.
- Topic:
- Economics, Youth Culture, Social Movement, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan
145. The Israeli Experience in Missile Defense: Lessons for NATO
- Author:
- Guillaume Lasconjarias and Jean-loup Samaan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the issue of missile defense has become one of the most prominent features of Israel's military debate. During Operation Pillar of Defense in the Gaza Strip on November 2012, air defense systems such as Iron Dome proved crucial against rockets targeting Israeli territory. As a result, they have attracted increasing political attention. Against this backdrop, international media and policy circles now focus on Israel as the most advanced case to test the validity of missile defense. NATO, in particular, has dedicated a lot of attention to the Israeli experience in missile defense and the lessons to be drawn from it.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
146. The Libyan Economy after the Revolution: Still No Clear Vision
- Author:
- Karim Mezran and Mohsin Khan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Libyan economy collapsed in the wake of the popular uprising in February 2011 that led to the overthrow of the Muammar Qaddafi regime later that year. As the war raged, virtually all economic activity, especially oil production (the mainstay of the Libyan economy) witnessed a dramatic decline. While there was some recovery in 2012 when the war ended and oil production came back faster than expected, the economy has not yet reached a point of sustained, longer term economic growth. In fact, by 2013, the economy has only just got back to what it was prior to the uprising.
- Topic:
- Economics and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Libya
147. Universal Data Fusion: Enabling Cost-effective US/Russia/NATO Cooperative Missile Defense
- Author:
- Patrick O'Reilly
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- As the proliferation of more capable missiles that threaten regional populations, governments, and commerce continues over the twenty-first century, so does the need to counter and disincentivize this proliferation with effective and affordable regional missile defenses. Missile defense systems are among the most expensive military capabilities, but their costs can be dramatically reduced, their performance improved, and geopolitical pressure increased if the United States, Russia, and NATO deployed systems cooperatively.
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
148. Is NATO Set to Go on Standby?
- Author:
- Karl-Heinz Kamp
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- While the withdrawal of all combat forces from Afghanistan by the end of 2014 will be welcomed in most NATO capitals, it raises stark questions for the future of the Atlantic Alliance. Can it justify its existence without a direct threat to the security of its members? Is it enough for NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen to state that the Alliance has to evolve from “deployed NATO to prepared NATO,” without answering the question: prepared for what? Or will NATO have to accept that it is now less relevant, placing itself in standby mode to hibernate until it is reawakened by a new mission inside or outside Europe?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, and North America
149. Stability through Change: Toward a New Political Economy in Jordan
- Author:
- Faysal Itani
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Although it appears Jordan has survived the Arab uprisings thus far, all is not well in the Hashemite Kingdom. Over the past twenty years, its political economy has changed profoundly, putting pressure on the foundations of regime stability. The state in Jordan has been retreating from many citizens' economic lives, shrinking its circle of privilege and patronage, and leaving the population to fend for itself in a dysfunctional economy. Worryingly, the segment of the population most affected is the monarchy's base, which sees the Palestinian-Jordanian population as benefiting from the new status quo. Today, Jordan is also coping with hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, many of whom may remain in the country long term. Yet the real danger to the monarchy's stability is not the immediate cost of refugee care but the alienation of its traditional power base.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan
150. Building a Better US-Gulf Partnership
- Author:
- Richard LeBaron
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Tension between the United States and its partners in the Gulf flared up visibly in the last several months, notably with Saudi Arabia's public displays of displeasure with the US approach to the Syria conflict, nervousness about an interim nuclear deal with Iran, and sharp differences over Egypt. Gulf distrust of US intentions and actions is nothing new, and is in no small part rooted in the Gulf states' deep frustration with how the United States executed the war in Iraq, which they perceive as placing Iraq under Iran's sphere of influence. But these latest tensions also point to a fundamental gap in expectations about the US role in the region and its commitment to security for the Gulf states.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt