Content Type: Journal Article / Publication Year: within 5 Years / Topic: Conflict

1. Russia’s Ukraine Revanchism: Dugin, Neo-Eurasianism, and the Emerging World Order

Author:: Mohammad Ali Zafar
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: The Ukrainian conflict has paved the way to re-examine the geopolitical implications of Russian Neo-Eurasianism, which has challenged the Liberal International Order. The implications of such a development will have global implications for Russia. Indications of Putin's renewed mission, infused by restrategising the Russian position in Eurasia coupled with cultural exceptionalism based on messianic identity, are observable in recognition of Donbas and Luhansk as separate territories and the invasion of Ukraine. The conflict has allowed the US to lead as an Atlanticist player and regain its slipping position in the international system. Therefore, following exploratory research methodology, the paper examines Dugin’s geopolitical model based on neo-Eurasianism. The paper concludes that the model will observe major setbacks in the post-Ukrainian conflict order as the proposed alliances by Dugin’s model with Moscow, Tokyo, and Tehran face several challenges. Consequently, the invasion has pushed Atlanticist pre-eminence back on track across Eurasia.
Topic:: Conflict, Regionalism, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2. Strategic Survival in Syria

Author:: Omar Abu Layla
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: How Russia and Iran maintain their grip in Syria under the shadows of the Ukraine war
Topic:: Defense Policy, Conflict, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, and Syria

3. Fortune and Hazard for Algeria

Author:: Zine Labidine Ghebouli
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: War in Ukraine has brought new cash flow to Algiers, but the state must walk an ever-narrowing path to maintain its non-alignment
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Africa and Algeria

4. Political Analysis of the Purchase and technology Transfer Process for Gropen Fighters

Author:: Francisco Porto Junior and Marco Antonio Alves
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article aims to present a descriptive study from a qualitative perspective through a bibliographical analysis, according to Coutinho (2014), which aims to discuss the political process of purchase and Technology Transfer (TT) of GRIPEN NG fighters. For this, we resort to the study of the decision-making process involving interrelationships between the main actors, consensus, interests and values. The goals is to present some reflections about the results of the political game that had taken place during the FHC, Lula and Dilma governments, to verify their relationship with the neoliberal political-social project and its actors in the international sphere. As a guide for this study, questions are presented, which must be answered throughout the text referring to political actors: Who were these actors? How did political actors act? What are the reasons for their actions?
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5. East Vs. West: A New Cold War?

Author:: Richard Sakwa
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Cold War has returned to dominate international politics. Expectations that the end of the Cold War in 1989 would lead to a more inclusive and comprehensive peace seems to be practically failed, and instead, by 2014, the centenary of the start of the First World War, Europe was once again wracked by conflict. On the one side, the U.S.-led Political West shaped by the Cold War remained the main protagonist. In contrast, on the other hand, a much-weakened Russia took the place of the former Soviet Union, now accompanied by a China intent on restoring its status as a great power. The article examines why a new cold war emerges again, and analyses how such a ‘Cold War II’ differs from the original.
Topic:: Cold War, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

6. IMperial or Colonial: The War is Fought Over The Soviet Past an A Broken Relationship

Author:: Li Bennich-Bjorkman
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Russia is trying, through its bombs, attacks, and brutality, to erase what Ukraine was. Therefore, it is a war effort to keep remembering how Ukraine in peace looked like, how it smelled, tasted, and felt. And to never forget that this is a war against Ukraine, in its own right. Not as a representative of the West, and not as a representative of democracy. But because Ukraine is of such importance to Russia, that a break between the two is unthinkable for Putin. That was what Leonid Kravchuk, the Ukrainian president, realized already in 1991. He, and Ukrainian leaders after him, tried to protect their territory while at the same time reassuring Russia that relations could still be friendly. But Russia has never changed in a similar way
Topic:: Imperialism, Military Strategy, Colonialism, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

7. The West Versus The Rest: The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine And The Crisis Of The "Post-Western" Order

Author:: Ziya Önis
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The Russian invasion of Ukraine intensified the defining conflict of the new age, the conflict between democratic and authoritarian capitalism. The unified Western response to the war highlighted the revitalization of the democratic club of Western states and their allies (G7 plus). Another critical implication of the War has been that a clear divide has emerged between “the West” and “the Rest” in their reactions to the War. The Russian War on Ukraine signals the beginnings of a new phase of the post-Western world, where territorial conquests could be considered the new normal, paving the way for further military confrontations in a conflict-ridden World.
Topic:: Capitalism, Liberal Order, Conflict, International Order, and World System
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

8. Russia, Ukraine, and Lasting Peace in Europe

Author:: Nicolai N. Petro
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Among the many competing narratives that drive the war in Ukraine, the healing of the Ukrainian people themselves is often overlooked. That is because current Western policy overlooks the Other Ukraine, whose disagreement with the policies of the Ukrainian government since 2014 led up to this conflict. The Western response to Russia’s invasion has been tailored to punishing Russia, but not necessarily to healing the domestic tension within Ukraine. This article suggests that only a reconciliation within Ukrainecan bring lasting social harmony to Ukraine and peace to Europe as a whole.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9. East-West Relations: A New Cold War?

Author:: Ilter Turan
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The Cold War bipolar order was characterized by two camps isolated from each other, competing along four dimensions: global governance, security, economics, and ideology. The end of the Cold War, with the Soviet Bloc collapsing, did not produce a U.S.-dominated unipolar but a multi-centered world. The Americans, losing power and influence and the Russians to restore their superpower status have been trying to reconstruct bipolarity. If reconstructed China, not Russia, would likely constitute the other pole, an outcome Russia does not want. Economic relations and Chinese disinterest currently prevent a bipolar world like the one we have left behind. We may be moving toward a multi-centered world with many unpredictable aspects, including armed conflicts such an order may entail.
Topic:: Cold War, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Europe

10. Small States and the War in Ukraine

Author:: Anders Wivel
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The War in Ukraine signals a return to the sphere of influence politics and great powers’ use of military instruments against their weaker neighbors. The consequences for small states are negative. Although some small states will find new opportunities for hedging and brinkmanship, most small states will see their chances of shaping international agendas reduced as they increasingly focus on defensive aims. To meet these challenges small states must work together to promote their shared interests: 1) A modus vivendi between the great power, which minimizes the risk of great power war as well as the annexation and invasion of smaller states, 2) a rule-based international order; 3) a relaunch the United Nations as the central arena for debates on international society among sovereign states.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Superpower
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11. Exploring the Russian Perspective on the War in Ukraine: Demography's Power and Ukraine's Uniqueness

Author:: Aybars Arda Kilicer
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Western officials and media have portrayed Russia as a rogue state that seeks to undermine the fundamental foundations of the Western lifestyle, which are based on democratic and liberal principles, especially more since the invasion of the remaining Ukrainian territories began on 24 February 2022. According to this perspective, Russia allegedly launched its strike to prevent Ukraine from joining the club of liberal nations. This move would have been a clear message to any other post-Soviet countries, further strengthening Russian control over them. It would be unfair to completely dismiss this argument, yet, justifying the simplification of the procedure and the continuation of conflict on these reasons goes much beyond presenting the facts. A thorough examination of the many issues involved is necessary to comprehend the Russian motivations for the ongoing war. This calls for an in-depth analysis of the Crimean Question, focusing on how Russia uses demographics in its foreign strategy. In addition, within the broader context of The Russian World (Russkiy Mir) Vision, it is crucial to understand the relevance of Russia’s unique perspective on Ukraine. The objective of this study is to provide an analytical framework concentrating on these apparently most visible factors for Russia’s willingness to raise tensions in Eastern Europe further and invade the remaining territory under the sovereignty of Ukraine.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

12. A "Civil Association" Between the European Union and Russia

Author:: Enes Ozcan
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Contradicting political worldviews of the EU and Russia contribute to their conflictual relations much more than the attention currently given to this facet of the relations. Each of their solidarist worldviews creates an ideological wall severing their communication that is essential for possible peaceful solutions. However, shifting toward a pluralist worldview inspired by conceptual tools of the English School and Michael Oakeshott’s theory of civil association could be an alternative to the current situation of conflict. Building on this theoretical framework, we also attempt to explain the significance of Türkiye’s mediation efforts along the way and present a constructive criticism of today’s norms-based international law.
Topic:: Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

13. Impact of the Church on Conflict Transformation of Political Crises at Community Level: A Case Study of two Church Denominations in Dzivarasekwa, Harare

Author:: Angela Shoko
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This study, based on Lederach’s conflict transformation (CT) theory, analyses the participation of the local church in CT of political crises in Zimbabwe at the grassroots level – from 2005 to 2020. It compares the CT interventions of one Pentecostal church denomination and of one African Independent Church denomination in the Dzivarasekwa suburb of Harare. A convergent parallel mixed methods design was used. SPSS software was used to analyse quantitative data while the NVivo application was used for qualitative data analysis. One key finding is that both denominations believe CT entails community engagement. Major challenges to local churches’ CT participation include financial constraints, repressive laws and church executives’ fear of victimisation. The study concludes that the impact of the local churches is low because their interventions are limited to congregation members and their immediate neighbours. Another conclusion is that CT is politicised in Zimbabwe, which restricts effective church participation. The study makes some recommendations to address this.
Topic:: Religion, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Christianity, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

14. The Political Ecology of Farmer-Herder Conflict in Ghana: A Case Study of the Kwahu Afram Plains South District

Author:: Bernard Okoampah Otu and Kwasi Sarfo
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Farmer-herder conflict is an age-old phenomenon, which is widely spread in the West African sub-region. Current studies on the Ghanaian farmer-herder conflict have emphasised the land-related conflicts between indigenous farmers and nomadic herders. It has focused especially on environmental scarcity and climate change approaches. However, this study adopts the political ecology framework to highlight land conflicts between migrant farmers and nomadic herders, two migrant groups that are considered “strangers” to the Kwahu Afram Plains District. The study contributes to the broader debates on farmer-herder conflict. It provides contrary evidence with regard to the popular notion in literature and theory about the prevalence of land insecurity among nomadic herders. The study argues that migrant farmers in the study area experience more land insecurity compared to the nomadic herders. This is because of their history of immigration, their relationship with the Kwahu landowners, which is driving the escalating cost of accessing land, and disputes between landowning groups.
Topic:: Conflict, Land, Farmers, Political Ecology, and Herders
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

15. Civil War between the Ethiopian Government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front: A Challenge to Implement the Responsibility to Protect Doctrine

Author:: Israel Nyaburi Nyadera and Census Osedo
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: How does the 2020–2022 civil war in Ethiopia contribute to our understanding of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine? This study seeks to revisit the debate over the effectiveness of the R2P doctrine in the wake of increased intrastate conflicts. The objective is to assess the dilemma that arises with the implementation of R2P when governments are involved in the conflict and the international community is reluctant or unable to intervene. The study adopts the systematic review approach (PRISMA) to identify the shortcomings, trends, and debates around R2P. It uses the Ethiopian civil war to contribute further to the existing body of literature. The paper finds that, indeed, the R2P doctrine is facing serious challenges with its implementation. It shows that when governments fail to acknowledge the other actors as legitimate combatants and instead describe them as terrorist groups, it becomes difficult to uphold the R2P doctrine. The paper also identifies a lack of leadership and coordinated efforts at regional and international levels as contributing factors, which further undermine the effectiveness of R2P. The paper concludes that the Ethiopian civil war exposes serious shortcomings in the R2P doctrine that need to be reviewed and reformed urgently. It proposes the adoption of a systems-thinking approach that can streamline the actors and processes of response during civil wars.
Topic:: Civil War, Human Rights, Conflict, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

16. China-Russia Relations: Ending the War? Or the World?

Author:: Yu Bin
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: As the Ukraine conflict was poised to expand, the “extremely complicated” situation at the frontline (in Vladimir Putin’s words on Dec. 20) gave rise to intensified high-level exchanges between Moscow and Beijing as they searched for both an alternative to the conflict, and stable and growing bilateral ties. As the Ukraine war dragged on and mustered a nuclear shadow, it remained to be seen how the world would avoid what Henry Kissinger defined as a “1916 moment,” or a missed peace with dire consequences for not only the warring parties but all of civilization.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

17. MILITARY SANCTIONS: THE WAR ON TERROR AND THE CASE OF UZBEKISTAN

Author:: Jonathan Honig
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: States frequently find themselves disbursing or receiving military aid, cooperation, and access to military products. Using foreign policy options like "military sanctions" (the suspension of military projects, aid, cooperation, and access) is a desirable, widely publicized way for one state to express its discontent to another while presumably influencing desired policy changes in the client state. However, the small amount of evidence on military sanctions indicates that they are ineffective, short-lived, and may even be counterproductive. This analysis attempted to elucidate this subject by advancing a theory stating that states will impose military sanctions in response to domestic audience pressures shortly after high-profile examples of undesirable behavior by client states. However, military sanctions will be eased as time progresses and public attention has waned. This analysis qualitatively examined Uzbekistan and its relationship with the US, finding support for this theory. It concluded that following high-profile incidents and periods of undesirable behavior by an aid-recipient state, military sanctions would likely be employed by the state providing the military aid and programs. Further, military sanctions are eased or scrapped as time moves from public incidents and attention involving human rights abuses.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Conflict, War on Terror, and Military
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Uzbekistan

18. INFORMING GLOBAL HEALTH DIPLOMACY: EXAMINING HEALTH AND PEACE THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF DISEASE

Author:: Tomislav Mestrovic, Driton Kuqi, and Goran Bandov
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: In this study, we aimed to examine the interconnectedness of health and peace, recognizing its significance within global health diplomacy, international relations, and human rights. For that purpose, we used the results from previous and ongoing Global Burden of Disease studies, which represent a comprehensive systematic appraisal of health problems and risks affecting populations worldwide. This paper could use its methodological underpinnings to analyze the impact of war, conflict, and terrorism on mortality and overall human health. In 2000, war and conflict were responsible for an estimated 310,000 deaths globally, compared to 2019, when this number decreased to 69,000. Recent findings reinforced the association between war, conflict, and increased all-cause mortality. Interpersonal violence also significantly contributed to human health loss resulting from disrupted peace. In Europe, disability-adjusted life years due to injury – including those caused by conflict – declined between 2000 and 2019. As we prioritize global health, peace-building initiatives, and global health diplomacy, big data will increasingly play a substantial role in accurately predicting and describing the health effects related to conflicts.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Health, Terrorism, Conflict, Peace, and Disease
Political Geography:: Global Focus

19. Coopetition and Non-Profit Performance in War-Torn Region: Role of Outside Knowledge and Innovative Climate

Author:: Bella Gulshan and Muhammad Mohsen Liaqat
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: The inconsistent findings on the association between non-profit coopetition and performance are complicated and contingent on essential factors. However, our current understanding of the circumstances under which non-profit coopetition matters to performance is limited. We take a novel context to address this question and build on the combined literature from the emerging non-profit coopetition literature. This study conceptualises and tests the impact of coopetition (simultaneous cooperation and competition) on the organisational performance of non-profit organisations in a war-torn region. Notably, it investigates the simultaneous cooperation and competition in non-profits’ social and financial performance via outside knowledge and innovative climate. An in-person survey with 158 executives and board members was conducted in Baghdad Governorate, Iraq. The survey adopted reliable and valid scales to measure the variables. Structural equation modelling was applied to test the mediation model. The proposed sequential mediating model has a good model fit with all four hypotheses statistically significant. Nonprofit engagement in coopetition positively affects organisation performance via mediators: use of outside knowledge and innovative climate. Cooperation with competitors helps non-profits to effectively use the outside knowledge that forms an innovative climate at the organisational level. Additionally, the use of outside knowledge has a direct effect on performance. Non-profits should integrate outside and internal knowledge to generate sustainable financial and social performance opportunities, especially in turbulent or war-torn regions. Moreover, context is imperative for non-profit leaders to identify themselves and seek inter-organisational relationships. The study also provides theoretical and practical implications that help non-profit leaders innovate and increase organisational performance.
Topic:: Conflict, Innovation, Non-profits, Cooperation, and Competition
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

20. Book Review: Sebastian Rosato, Intentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of Conflict (Yale University Press, 2021)

Author:: Orhan Mehmed Irfan
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Students and practitioners of International Relations have always been wondering whether the effects of anarchy can be mitigated, where anarchy stands for the absence of hierarchical organization among states. In other words, is it possible for states to abandon their endemic suspicions and anxieties, and start to trust each other? Sebastian Rosato, with his timely and much needed work, concludes that this cannot be the case and those who foresee rosy scenarios for the United States (US)-China rivalry are, to put it mildly, mistaken.
Topic:: Power Politics, Book Review, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Global Focus, and United States of America

21. The Emerging Era of Minilateralism in Indian Foreign Policy and Its Impacts on South Asian Politics

Author:: Attiq ur-Rehman
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The contemporary trends of Indian foreign policy cannot be studied without understanding the extension of New Delhi’s strategic collaborations with different stats beyond its traditional bilateral and multilateral cooperative frameworks. The prevalence of a minilateral approach to New Delhi's foreign relations has started focusing on creating different trilateral and quadrilateral engagements with diverse states to address the emerging security challenges of contemporary global power politics. These security challenges are fundamentally linked with the emerging role of China in the international system and New Delhi’s longstanding confrontational ties with Beijing. The position of the United States, and its strategic support to New Delhi, cannot be ignored in the evolving India-China confrontations in economic and strategic domains. The continuation of cooperation against common security threats originating from China has witnessed a bilateral Indo-US strategic collaboration against China in the broader Asian balance of power. Thus, the increasing shadows of minilateralism on Indian foreign policy cannot be treated separately from South Asian regional politics, where India has created a security dilemma parallel to introducing various new trends in the regional arms race of South Asia. This new strategic alignment of New Delhi with the international community tries to counter the increasing role of China in the South Asian region, where Pakistan provides a gateway to China for its South Asian entry. Therefore, the central theme of this paper revolves around the newly evolved era of minilateralism in New Delhi's foreign relations and their impacts on the politics of nuclearized subcontinent due to Islamabad's strong trading ties with China. This paper is an academic endeavour to provide a comprehensive understanding of New Delhi's increasing reliance on minilateralism and its relevance with the decades-long India-Pakistan rivalry.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Regional Security, and Minilateralism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and India

22. Exiting Somalia's Political Impasse

Author:: Hilal Khashan
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This paper argues that Somalia's Weberian state apparatus and legal-rational bureaucratic model need revision. Given the country's clan -based societal organization and dominant agrarian and pastoral economy, an alternative form of government that includes clan leaders, businesspeople, and urban-based nongovernmental organizations works best for Somalia. In such a system, the central government is a moderator articulating and aggregating diverse demands instead of power monopolizing. The success of the Islamic Courts and alShabaab Movement in working with the local population in their areas of control suggests that an informal form of government is more suitable for Somalia's traditional society than a formal system based on the concept of anonymous citizenship that is alien to the local value system. The unpropitious legacy of colonialism, and the failure of its democracy during the 1960s, leading to civil strife, wars, foreign intervention, and state failure that continue to grip Somalia validate the paper's research approach.
Topic:: Fragile/Failed State, Piracy, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

23. The Russian Bloodletting Strategy in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War: From Success to Hubris

Author:: Spyridon N. Litsas
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The article focuses on the role of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in shaping the balance of power in the Lesser Caucasus as a prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It argues that Russia implemented a “bait and bleed” strategy to discipline Armenia for its pro-Western agenda. In addition, it focuses on Turkey’s role as a supportive apparatus for Azerbaijan’s military efforts against Armenia, evaluating the connection established between Moscow and Ankara. The Nagorno-Karabakh case marked a new manipulative Russian strategy to influence the balance of power in regions with geostrategic significance for the Kremlin.
Topic:: War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

24. Tackling Russian Gray Zone Approaches in the Post-Cold War Era

Author:: Ryan Burkholder
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: To undermine U.S. military strength, state actors are increasingly operating in the ambiguous environment between peace and war known as the “gray zone.” These actions test U.S. response by exploiting the West’s rigid notion of conflict. Soviet actions toward the United States and other nations during the Cold War shared many similarities with contemporary Russian strategy. There is no current uniform definition of the gray zone, and the United States has not developed doctrine to address this challenge. Russia has adapted Soviet Cold War techniques for the digital and globalized age and effectively integrates instruments of power against the United States by targeting seams within culture, maintaining ambiguity, and controlling narratives. Countering these tactics requires that the United States modify its mindset toward conflict and improve integration of its own instruments of power.
Topic:: Cold War, Politics, Conflict, Gray Zone, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

25. The Devil's Advocate: An Argument for Moldova and Ukraine to Seize Transnistria

Author:: Anthony II. Roney
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article outlines the policy suggestion for Moldova and Ukraine to bilaterally invade the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) to strengthen their respective national security interests. The article examines the historical background of Moldova and the PMR, otherwise known as Transnistria, to provide context for the relationship between the two actors. As the PMR has acted as a tool of covert foreign influence for Russia, it is recommended that Moldova and Ukraine act now to eliminate the risk of Russian influence and interference from posing a larger threat in the future for these states. This article conveys the reasons, risks, and benefits for a joint invasion of Transnistria. It details the justifications for such a proposed action, but it also outlines its possible consequences. The policy suggestion is further justified when viewed under the lens of defensive realism, contrasted with Russia’s aggressive expansionist actions under President Vladimir Putin. Finally, the article gives basic strategic and tactical suggestions on how to accomplish this task.
Topic:: Conflict, Military, Defensive Realism, Foreign Influence, and Offensive Realism
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, and Transnistria

26. Unknown gunmen and insecurity in Nigeria: Dancing on the brink of state fragility

Author:: Tope Shola Akinyetun, Victor Chukwugekwu Ebonine, and Iyase Osariyekemwen Ambrose
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: There is a compelling need to address the protracted and recurring multidimensional insecurity in Nigeria. The prevalence of insecurity in the country is multipronged and caught in a cyclic web. Insecurity in Nigeria comprises insurgency, killer herdsmen, extrajudicial killings, ethnoreligious conflict, armed robbery, militancy, banditry, cybercrime and attacks by unknown gunmen, among other things. The incidence of attacks by unknown gunmen is pervasive and symptomatic of a fragile state where the government’s monopoly of force is challenged and where marginalisation, crises and contested spaces are ubiquitous. The thrust of this paper is that the menace of unknown gunmen is pervasive and threatens to plunge Nigeria into a cesspit of fragility. The argument is predicated on the conceptual and theoretical suppositions of a fragile state. To this end, the paper adopts the documentary method of data collection and uses qualitative descriptive analysis to expound on the phenomenon. The findings reveal that the words unknown gunmen – terminology that is used to describe the spate of insecurity in the country – are a bane to peaceful coexistence. The paper also shows that the insecurity caused by these armed attacks and other forms of threat is emblematic of a fragile state. Consequently, policy recommendations – state-building and peace-building – are proffered.
Topic:: Security, International Security, Conflict, Legitimacy, and Fragility
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

27. Enlargement of the European Union: Lessons from the Western Balkans

Author:: Tefta Kelmendi
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine created a new momentum for the European Union to review its political and security strategy for the neighborhood. Its enlargement policy – which has become yet another divisive issue in Europe over the past years – is now forced back into the EU’s foreign policy priorities. With Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova officially requesting membership in the EU, deciding how to go about it has become an even greater challenge. Over the past 20 years, we have evidenced a failure of the EU to show results in the Western Balkans – both in terms of driving democratic reforms and the rule of law, as well as in delivering on its promises in the accession process. The war in Ukraine might be the EU’s last chance to reinvigorate its enlargement policy and reposition itself geopolitically in eastern and southeastern Europe.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, European Union, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Integration
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Balkans

28. War, Peace, and (in)Justice in the Nuclear Age

Author:: Ulrich Kűhn
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Russia’s war against Ukraine has created a watershed moment for Europe. The coming weeks and months will decide what kind of peace and security order will shape the old continent. The prominence of nuclear weapons will likely increase in the years ahead. Mutual deterrence between NATO and Russia will be the military component to what may soon turn out to be a new Cold War dividing Europe. While this is already bad news news, Ukraine’s fate has again exposed the system of nuclear deterrence as highly unjust and precarious. The consequences of that sorry state of affairs might soon create additional injustices on a global scale. A realistic view must come to the conclusion that we do not have the time to fight another Cold War
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

29. Communal Conflicts in Nasarawa State, North Central Nigeria: A Socio-Contextual Rethink

Author:: Al-Chukwuma Okoli and Damian Ukwandu
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Nasarawa State in North Central Nigeria has been notorious for communal conflicts. Such conflicts have often assumed complicated dimensions reflective of the social dynamics of the state. Oftentimes, the conflicts are framed in terms of identitarian differences and contestations, whilst the underlying drivers derive essentially from the socio-structural dynamics of the conflict context. By way of mixed research that is predicated on a combination of field and desk sources, this article interrogates the contemporary manifestations of communal conflicts in Nasarawa State through the combined lenses of liberal political ecology and conflict analysis. The article observes that the ethno-primordial cleavages of the focal state have provided veritable pretexts for the prevalence of communal conflicts, making such conflicts problematic to understand as well as resolve. The outcome of the analysis indicates that communal conflicts in the focal state have been both dynamic and opportunistic, often feeding into the existing primordial and structural fault-lines to assume multiple complications. There is therefore a need to understand the peculiar nature and dynamics of such conflicts in order to know how best to interpret, analyse and mitigate them.
Topic:: Politics, Conflict, Pastoralism, Community, and Farmers
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

30. Hydro-geopolitics and conflicts among the ‘traditional states’ of the Nun River Basin, Ndop Plain (North-West Cameroon)

Author:: Godwill Kungso Ndzofoa Eno
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The Nun River Basin (NRB) has a long history of cross-border conflicts, mostly connected to the impact of climate change on water sources and resources. This article discusses the link between water politics and conflicts among the traditional communities in the NRB. Water scarcity and floods have led to border conflicts among the “traditional states” at the drier edges and in the marshes of the NRB. Initial mappings to determine geopolitical and water security contexts helped identify the areas, including firstly, Bamali, Bamunka, Babungo and Baba I, with maritime border conflicts, and secondly the Babessi and Baba I floods, with access in the NRB. Based on our findings and analysis of existing sources and critical interviews, the recognised and unrecognised links that bind water to the regional politics and relations among the fondoms are central to the conflicts related to the control of water sources and the fertile rice cultivation marshes. The article concludes that although the “traditional states” have been in mutual competition, where food needs accelerate in response to rising populations and economic interest, the traditional method of conflict resolution through consensus has been most effective in achieving peace in the region.
Topic:: Climate Change, Water, Conflict, Borders, Hydro-geopolitics, and Traditional States
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

31. Scylla and Charybdis: The Self-Determination of Peoples Versus the Territorial Integrity of States

Author:: A. Kagramanov
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: LIKE Odysseus, who fell into the clutches of Scylla after escaping the whirlpool Charybdis, countries that have escaped the threat of losing territory as a result of foreign invasion are facing the threat of disintegration from within. The ancient epic by the great Homer about the adventures of the hero Odysseus, who finds himself between a rock and a hard place, involuntarily comes to mind when considering the perennial international legal dilemma about the relationship between the principle of the territorial integrity of states and the right of peoples and nations to self-determination. As Yekaterina Narochnitskaya rightly notes, self-determination, like freedom, has “its limits and its paradox.” “Just as unlimited freedom destroys itself, so the right to self-determination, elevated to an absolute, risks depriving everyone and everything of self-determination, the inevitable outcome being a chain reaction of countless conflicting expressions of will leading to a general collapse.”1 Experience shows that the principle of self-determination is subject to double standards and often politically exploited by certain groups to achieve their economic, social, ethnocratic, religious, and other narrow, sometimes purely selfish goals that contradict the original purpose of this vital international legal and (in most cases) constitutional provision. And it is for these untoward purposes that the artificial “collision” of this principle with the principle of territorial integrity is often used.
Topic:: International Law, Law, Self Determination, Conflict, Peace, and Territory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

32. Post-Pulwama Indo-Pak COnflict: Reconnoitering The Role of Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Author:: Bawa Singh, Aslam Khan, Jagmeet Bawa, and Balinder Singh
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Terrorism has emerged as one of the major challenges for the Eurasian regional peace, security, and cooperation. Keeping these challenges in perspective, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established to eliminate the menace of terrorism, fundamentalism, and secessionism. Against this background, the main objectives of this paper are to examine how terrorism emerged as a major determining factor in the Indo-Pak relations and how the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), was failed to play its effective role in the Indo-Pak conflict given the Pulwama terror attack. For this research, descriptive and analytical methods were used and the data was collected from secondary sources. The major findings of this article are that terrorism has emerged as one of the major determinants of Indo-Pak relations and the same has become a major challenge for the SCO to resolve the issue. Against the background of terror attacks, it was anticipated that the SCO would play a crucial role to pacify the situation. However, the role played by the SCO in this situation proved marked as a Whack-a-Mole.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Terrorism, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, India, and Asia

33. Towards Sustainable Peace and Cooperation

Author:: Farid Shafiyev
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Caucasus Strategic Perspectives
Institution:: Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)
Abstract:: The current issue of the Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CSP) journal entitled “Towards Sustainable Peace and Cooperation” is dedicated to the challenges and opportunities emerging in the South Caucasus region 2 years after the end of the 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020 with focus on security and political matters.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, International Law, Treaties and Agreements, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Conflict, Vladimir Putin, Landmines, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

34. The Changing Middle East Regional Order

Author:: Paul Salem
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: A history of the Arab state system starting from the second half of the twentieth century to the present
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, Conflict, State Building, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Middle East

35. Managing Crises, the Least-Bad Option

Author:: Joost Hiltermann
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Conflict management in the MENA region has little chance of succeeding as conflicts increasingly intersect and tensions driven by larger, regional triggers become even more unpredictable
Topic:: Governance, Conflict, Crisis Management, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

36. Arab Nationalism, Regionalism, and Regional Integration

Author:: Ibrahim Awad
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: In the third decade of the 21st century, regionalism and regional integration in the Arab region stood in contrast with experiences in other regions of the world. Rather than facilitate integration, Arab nationalism seems to have in fact obstructed it
Topic:: Nationalism, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

37. The End of the Road

Author:: Khaled Elgindy
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Why has the two-state solution fallen apart and are there alternative approaches for lasting peace between Israel and Palestine?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, State Formation, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

38. s It Time to Bury the Two-State Solution?

Author:: Hesham Youssef
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: While many may be dismissive of the two-state solution, there are no viable alternatives for peace between Israel and Palestine
Topic:: Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Governance, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

39. Framing the Partition Plan for Palestine

Author:: Lorenzo Kamel
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Many different opinions abound concerning Resolution 181, but one fact cannot be denied or overlooked: it was not a solution born out of the “free and sovereign” world states of the time
Topic:: Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Governance, Conflict, Peace, and State Building
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

40. Bringing Russia Back in From the Cold

Author:: Nikolas Gvosdev and Damjan. Krnjevic Miskovic
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Our reasoning is straightforward: for better or worse, Ukraine will never be as important to the West as it is to Russia—and this would be true even if Ukraine was the only item on their respective stra- tegic agendas. But this last is very far from being the case today—cer- tainly for the United States, whose leadership of the West has again been reaffirmed thanks to the conflict over Ukraine. To main- tain and perhaps even strengthen that leadership against China—a country that Biden defines as being in “competition [with the United States] to win the twenty-first cen- tury”—America stands to benefit greatly from bringing Russia back in from the cold.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, North America, and United States of America

41. The CSTO Intervention in Kazakhstan Implication for Regional and World Order

Author:: Filppo Costa Buranelli
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: In the first two weeks of 2022, Kazakhstan was ravaged by an unprecedented scale of protests, violence, and repression. While it is still very much difficult to know what exactly caused the clashes, what seems to be the case is that it involved the meeting of two different and separated dynamics. The first was peaceful protest, which originated in the west of the country because of the doubling of LPG prices alongside the solidarity expressed with the protesters in other parts of the country, i.e., in the north as well as in the east and the south. The second was the presence of violent bandits, criminals, and hooligans that in less than perfect coordination set ablaze Almaty, Taraz, Shymkent, and other centers in the south, which led to the bloodiest clashes in the history of independent Kazakhstan. In a series of rapid escalations, which even those inside the Central Asian nation are still struggling to understand, the initially peaceful marches descended into violence. On 5 January 2022, the Kazakhstani authorities, fearing for the collapse of the constitutional order and for the state to spiral into country‑wide bloodshed, decided to request the intervention of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to protect sensitive and strategic infrastructural objectives such as power grids and airports so to allow to the internal security forces to repress and quell the violence. On 6 January 2022, the CSTO Collective Security Council issued a statement indicating its decision to “send the CSTO Collective Peacekeeping Forces to the Republic of Kazakhstan for a limited period of time to stabilize and normalize the situation in that country.” The same day, these forces began to arrive in Kazakhstan. On 19 January 2022, the CSTO Secretary General informed the CSTO Collective Security Council that all contingents of its Collective Peacekeeping Forces have been withdrawn from the territory of Kazakhstan. Much ink has been spilled in writing about why these events took place, what caused them, who was behind them, and who or what favored them. Most of what has appeared in print has not been particularly coherent or accurate. The truth is that too little is known at the moment: much time will need to pass for scholars to gain a clear understanding of what exactly happened within the Kazakhstani security and elite apparatus so that these violent dynamics could be unleashed.
Topic:: Conflict, Protests, Violence, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and Asia

42. Prospects for Pax Caucasia? The 3+3 Regional Cooperation Initiative

Author:: Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The 3+3 format for regional cooperation is an initiative that was first proposed by the leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the aftermath of the Second Karabakh War, building somewhat on an idea that originated in Iran during the war itself. This grouping covers the three countries of the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) plus the three most important countries neighboring this region (Russia, Turkey, and Iran). Thus in December 2020, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the initiative at a joint press conference with his Azerbaijani counterpart, President Ilham Aliyev, during his visit to Baku in which he reviewed the military parade marking Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the aforementioned war—a war that heralded the fundamental transformation of regional geopolitical and geo‑economic realities. On this occasion, Erdoğan called 3+3 a win‑win initiative for all actors in the region. Given its obvious potential to promote peace and security in the South Caucasus and facilitate the normalization of relations between former belligerents, some local experts believe that the 3+3 initiative could be instrumental for the emergence of Pax Caucasia. Four of the six countries immediately reacted positively to the initiative, with Armenia and Georgia expressing some reservation. While Armenia initially sounded skeptical, the government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan eventually confirmed its participation in this format. For now, the only country that retains distance from the Pax Caucasia process is Georgia which, due to its ongoing territorial dispute with Russia, refuses to participate in this platform and proposes an alternative 3+2 format (the countries of the South Caucasus + the EU and the United States). Tbilisi has called its counterproposal the “Peaceful Neighborhood Initiative” but has taken no concrete action to set it in motion. Neither Aliyev nor Pashinyan have yet to publicly comment on the 3+2 format. Others have also remained silent. Hence, the likelihood it can prevail over the 3+3 framework in geopolitical substance is low, given that it excludes major active regional players like Russia and Turkey and substitutes them with two Western actors that are evidently less engaged in the region. The advent of the present phase of the conflict over Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022, has also not increased the prospects of the Georgian idea being adopted, either.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

43. Repatriating Azerbaijani IDPs Policy Priorities and Recommendations

Author:: Fariz Ismailzade
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The conflict over Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which started in 1988 and resulted in the occupation of some 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territories, produced a massive humanitarian catastrophe in the region. Around 350,000 ethnicAzerbaijanis were driven from their homes in the Republic of Armenia in 1988‑1989, becoming refugees in the Republic of Azerbaijan. At the same time, the armed conflict in and around the former Nagorno‑Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) resulted in the ethnic cleansing of an additional 650,000 ethnicAzerbaijanis from their homes in 1992‑1993. By some estimates, back in 1993 Azerbaijan was one of the largest refugee‑ and IDPhosting countries in the world, given that 1 out of every 7 of the country’s Azerbaijani population fell into one of those two categories. In addition to that, Azerbaijan also hosted large numbers of Chechen, Afghan, and Meskheti Turks. Azerbaijani refugees and IDPs mostly came from towns and villages outside the former NKAO part of the Karabakh region. Forcibly driven from their homes, they first settled in temporary tent camps, railway wagons, university dormitories, public buildings, and old sanatoriums. After being ethnically cleansed, their houses in Karabakh were looted and destroyed by Armenian occupational forces. Towns like Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Agdam, Gubadly, and Zangelan were entirely raised to the ground. During the last 30 years, refugees and IDPs received significant humanitarian assistance from various foreign donors, a plethora of national charity organizations, and, of course, the Azerbaijani government. The latter had even launched a housing program for them with the funds accrued by the State Oil Fund, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, which enabled many families to move from tent camps into purpose‑built single‑family home developments that oftentimes included land plots for agricultural activities. When Ilham Aliyev first ran for president in 2003, he had promised to eliminate the need for all tent camps in the country—a promise that he fulfilled in 2007 thanks to the priority allocation of resources from increasing oil revenues. Nevertheless, large number of refugees and IDPs continued to live in temporary housing in Baku and other urban centers that sometimes had significant safety issues and subpar sanitation facilities. Despite the fact that refugees and IDPs receive many welfare benefits from the government of Azerbaijan (e.g., free education, free utilities, monthly remuneration for food and other social payments), their living standards remain suboptimal, and the rate of poverty, health risks, and other social problems among the refugee and IDP community remains higher than the country’s average. At the same time, serious concerns remain regarding the employability and religious education of young people belonging to refugee and IDP communities, with many analysts fearing that this part of the population can be more susceptible to recruitment by foreign radical sects and similar such groups.
Topic:: Ethnic Cleansing, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis, and Repatriation
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Asia, and Azerbaijan

44. Armenia Adapts to New Postwar Realities

Author:: Richard Giragosian
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: To many observers, Armenia’s non‑violent change of government in 2018 represented an unusual victory of “people power.” In what became heralded as Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution,” Armenian opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan surprised many with the relative ease with which he displaced an entrenched elite and emerged as the new Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. After an important free and fair election in December 2018 cemented Pashinyan as Armenia’s new leader, the country ushered in a new period of democracy and reform. Endowed with a rare degree of legitimacy bolstered by popular support, the new democratically‑elected government promised a critical reassessment of a number of critical issues, ranging from Armenian relations with Russia to its policy regarding the conflict over Karabakh. Yet despite these important gains in democratic change and advances in reform, the Armenian leadership faced a looming challenge that was largely obscured by a legacy of arrogance and complacency. With a focus overwhelmingly devoted to domestic reform priorities, the Pashinyan government seemed increasingly ill‑prepared for the inescapable geopolitical and foreign policy demands that loomed large over Armenia. And through much of the period between mid‑2018 and early 2020, Armenia embarked on a foreign policy course characterized more by overconfidence than any realistic reassessment, marked by sporadic mistakes and missteps in its approach toward Russia but also Azerbaijan. Although somewhat explainable by a combination of inexperience and simplistic idealism, Armenia greatly overvalued the advantages of democracy and reform while also overstating its strategic significance. Against that backdrop, such diplomatic overconfidence only exacerbated a mounting crisis over Karabakh, as tensions increased and vulnerability intensified.
Topic:: Conflict, Violence, Peace, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:: Europe and Armenia

45. Armenian-Azerbaijani Relations in the Wake of the Second Karabakh War

Author:: Agil Rustamzade and Anar Valiyev
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The Second Karabakh War was more than a war between two belligerents; essentially, it represented a war between two strategic paradigms: one belonging to the twenty‑first century and the other a relic of twentieth‑century military thinking. Azerbaijan’s achievement of air supremacy with the help of drones was not only one of the crucial factors that decided the outcome of that particular war; it will almost certainly contribute to the further development of the military art in armed conflicts of various scopes across various theaters in the time ahead. At the same time, referring to this war as a “drone war” does not reflect reality. In this, as in much else, impressionable journalists got it wrong: this could be a proper designation only if the drones had fought also on the ground instead of soldiers. Certainly, the use of drones was decisive; but the laurels of victory in this war do not belong solely to this contingent of the Azerbaijani military: the mobile groups of special forces were also decisive. Each played a critical part in the country’s military achievement. We begin with an examination of the area of hostilities and the respective dispositions of the parties to the conflict before getting into a discussion about some relevant aspects of Operation Iron Fist—the official designation used by Azerbaijan for the Second Karabakh War. We conclude with remarks of a more geopolitical nature.
Topic:: War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Asia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

46. The Western Sahara conflict in the Algerian Moroccan relations

Author:: Lotfi Sour
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Algeria and Morocco have for centuries kept an uneasy relationship of conflict and doubt which shaped the Maghreb region history. In fact, both states shared the same borders but never shared same policies. This caused the relational gap at both governmental level and social grounds. As a result, the hostility and continuing tension has remained at top in their foreign policies for most of their mutual history. Consequently, the Western Sahara conflict has been undoubtedly an important driver of one of the most critical problems to have confronted the two countries in the course of their bilateral relations. This article will examine the impact of this conflict on the geopolitical landscape of the Maghreb region and its implications on the Maghreb’s regional security and integrity.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Conflict, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Africa, Algeria, Morocco, and Western Sahara

47. Transformation Challenges for the International Humanitarian Law System: Migration Crisis as the Latest Tool For Hybrid Warfare. (A Vision From Ukraine)

Author:: Vitaliy Kovalchuk, Iryna Zharovska, Mykhailo Mykievych, Malvina Hrushko, and Mykhailo I. Hrabynskyi
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The article tries to present a theoretical-legal and international-practical analysis of the migration crisis as a tool for hybrid warfare, analysing the features of such a war and the peculiarities of using the flow of migrants and refugees as "living" weapons in a military conflict. The authors try to prove that a migration crisis can be provoked by an aggressor country using the hybrid warfare methodology attempting to destabilize the political situation, avoiding the resistance of the civil society of the target country without engaging in open hostilities. The authors stress the uncertainty surrounding the term "hybrid warfare" and propose their own classification of the modern hybrid warfare´ features. Based on the analysis of the use of migration crisis in Syria, Venezuela and Belarus, the article singles out the stages of employment of such a tool for warfare.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Conflict, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

48. Russia Against Ukraine Before the European Court of Human Rights. The Empire Strikes Back?

Author:: Milena Ingelevic-Citak
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: In July 2021, Russia submitted its first inter-state complaint against Ukraine to the European Court of Human Rights. It was an unexpected and intriguing step of the Russian government, especially since many of the presented allegations are linked to the events that initiated the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Referring to the hostilities that began in 2014, the international community was, in principle, unanimous in assessing who the aggressor was. The focus of this research is the strategy of the Russian Federation in its recently initiated legal battle before the Strasbourg Court. This paper presents an attempt to outline the possible motives for taking such a step. Moscow's position on this case is particularly puzzling, as some of the allegations concern the Crimean Peninsula, widely recognized under international law as territory occupied by Russia. In spite of that, doubt arises about the strategic objectives of the Russian authorities in the conflict with Ukraine; the question is whether the actions taken by Russia fall within the scope of its previous strategy or if there has been a new turn in the matter. The first part of this paper outlines the background of the given conflict, the second details Russian policy after the annexation of Crimea, and the third, which is crucial for the formulating of conclusions, presents considerations on Russia's possible motivation and goals in filing a complaint to the European Court Human Rights. The research was conducted mainly based on the merits of the complaint, the statements of the representatives of Russia and Ukraine in the matter, the author's observations, and practitioners' considerations.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Regionalism, European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

49. Europe at War

Author:: Robert Cox
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: For the moment as western Europeans watch the nightly media display of Russian brutality in Ukraine, many instinctively feel it’s a long way away. An echo of British Premier Neville Chamberlain’s dismissal of Hitler’s threats to Czechoslovakia in 1938 as a “quarrel in a faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing.” One Czech emigrée saw the fatuousness of Chamberlain’s stance—Madeleine Albright. Balts and Poles, their memories fresh of Russian occupation, are clearly nervous. At greater distance, Portuguese, Greeks and Italians feel less threatened. French people show more concern with cost-of-living hikes—albeit driven by Russia’s actions. Yet the violence is happening on all Europeans’ doorstep. One false move, deliberate or careless, and NATO’s Article 5 activates. Perhaps. Let us look at the complexities of the context in which this war has come to pass.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

50. The Exhaustion of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Dysfunctional Constitutional Regime

Author:: Jasmin Mujanović
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The footage is grainy. The cacophony of noise pours from the idling helicopters and the columns of police cars, motorcycles, and armored personnel carriers with their engines and blaring sirens. But the scenes are remarkable all the same. They show the city of Banja Luka, the second largest metropolitan area in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), on May 12, 1992. They depict a city under occupation by a regime in the process of orchestrating the first genocide in Europe since the Holocaust.
Topic:: Democracy, Constitution, History, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe and Bosnia and Herzegovina

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS