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101. CTC Sentinel: July/August 2024 Issue

Author:
Devorah Margolin, Gina Vale, Kristina Hummel, Samuel Bowles, and Noah Tucker
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Ten years ago, in August 2014, the Islamic State began its genocidal campaign against the Yazidi community. In our cover article, Devorah Margolin and Gina Vale evaluate how the group’s gendered violence has manifested during and after its caliphate years. “Even without its caliphate,” they write, “the Islamic State’s gendered violence continues, as its supporters and ideology remain. Arguably, the lack of timely and appropriate responses has perpetuated this violence.” Our interview this month is with William Braniff, director of the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships at the Department of Homeland Security. In it, he describes his office’s efforts to utilize a public health-informed approach to preventing targeted violence and terrorism. Edward Lemon and Noah Tucker examine Central Asians’ prominent role in recent global terror plots and attacks. They argue that analysis should focus more on “the factors that led to mobilization to Syria and Iraq a decade ago and that have been exacerbated in recent years, especially in Tajikistan, including crackdowns on religion, corrupt ineffective governance, high levels of migration, and well-established terror networks that are holdovers from the peak of the Islamic State” as a way to understand this evolving threat area. When news reports appeared earlier this summer suggesting that the leader of the Islamic State in Somalia, Abdulqadir Mumin, may have quietly become the “worldwide leader” of the Islamic State last year and may have been killed in a recent U.S. airstrike, the news created far more questions than answers. Austin Doctor and Gina Ligon take a nuanced look at what the developments—if true—could mean for the group. Jessica Davis provides analysis of the Islamic State’s post-caliphate financial strategies. “The future of the Islamic State’s financial infrastructure,” she writes, “is networked, resilient, and adaptive.” This reality, she warns, portends “a grim future for efforts to combat the group’s international presence.” Finally, in June, the U.S. State Department designated the Nordic Resistance Movement, the largest neo-Nazi group in Sweden, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, only the second white nationalist organization on its terrorist list. Peter Smith outlines the development of the group and considers what the designation could mean for its future.
Topic:
Genocide, Migration, Terrorism, Women, Islamic State, Gender Based Violence, Public Health, Yazidis, and Neo-Nazis
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Middle East, Tajikistan, North America, Sweden, and United States of America

102. CTC Sentinel: May 2024 Issue

Author:
Amira Jadoon, Abdul Sayed, Lucas Webber, Riccardo Valle, and Paul Cruickshank
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the wake of Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) attack on March 22 in Moscow and a wave of thwarted plots by the group in Europe, there is growing concern about the international terror threat the network poses. In the feature article, Amira Jadoon, Abdul Sayed, Lucas Webber, and Riccardo Valle assess that “ISK’s nearly decade-long presence in its traditional strongholds of Afghanistan and Pakistan, coupled with its expanding reach and appeal among Central Asian populations and its prioritization of inspiring and coordinating transnational attacks as part of its growth strategy, underscores the multifaceted and evolving nature of the threat posed by this resilient terrorist organization … Despite ISK’s recent decline in attacks in Afghanistan, the group retains the determination and capacity to conduct destabilizing high-profile attacks in multiple countries. The group remains resilient, but more worryingly, it has learned to adapt its strategy and tactics to fit evolving dynamics, and exploit local, regional, and global grievances and conflicts.” Our interview is with Ahmad Zia Saraj who served as the General Director of the National Directorate of Security (NDS) of Afghanistan between September 2019 until the fall of Kabul on August 15, 2021. He recounts this turbulent period and the lessons learned. He warns that by using end-to-end-encryption, ISK can recruit, exchange information swiftly, plan, and execute international attacks. “Encrypted messaging apps have helped terrorists speed up operations, enhance operational security, save time, save travel costs, and to plan and execute and even monitor attacks in real time,” he says. “The NDS noticed that a newly recruited fighter does not need to physically attend a training camp to learn how to construct a bomb or how to target the enemy. All this can be done via a smart phone with less risk of exposure. Advancing technology has made it possible for someone to be trained in terrorist tactics in any part of the world, regardless of borders or travel restrictions. A terrorist in Afghanistan or Iraq can easily train another one in any part of the world.” Finally, Pete Simi, Gina Ligon, Seamus Hughes, and Natalie Standridge quantify the rising threats to public officials in the United States by reviewing a decade of federal data. They write that: “A review of federal charges for the past decade highlights that the number of threats to public officials is growing. While 2013-2016 had an average of 38 federal charges per year, that number sharply increased to an average of 62 charges per year between 2017-2022. Across the time series, ideologically motivated threats, on average, accounted for almost half of the cases, and the portion steadily increased year over year. A preliminary review of cases from 2023 and 2024 shows that the number of federal prosecutions is on pace to hit new record highs. The rising threat level may produce significant consequences for the U.S. democratic system of governance.”
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, Islamic State, Encryption, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, North America, and United States of America

103. CTC Sentinel: December 2024 Issue

Author:
Graham Macklin, Paul Cruickshank, Kristina Hummel, Michael Horton, Christopher Faulkner, Marcel Plichta, and Raphael Parens
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the feature article, Graham Macklin evaluates ‘transnationalism’ as an analytical lens for understanding racially or ethnically motivated violent extremist (REMVE) terrorism. He writes that “the ‘transnational’ dimension of REMVE terrorism is often ill-defined and misunderstood, leading to misconceptions about the nature of such networks that in turn exaggerate their ‘global’ reach. … Nevertheless, understanding the transnational dimension of social media and its role in the radicalization of lone-actor REMVE terrorists is increasingly important. Online REMVE communities rather than physical organizations per se serve as the medium through which violent ideologies are spread; where lessons from previous attacks are learned and internalized; where the perpetrators of violence are revered; and where further acts of violence are encouraged and incited.” Our interview is with Marshall Miller, the outgoing Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General of the United States, who oversaw the day-to-day running of the Department of Justice and earlier in his career prosecuted or supervised the prosecution of several high-profile terrorism cases. When it comes to the CT mission of the DOJ, he says that “the number-one piece of advice would be that prevention and disruption always have to remain the top priority. And in order to achieve prevention and disruption, we need to double down on what has been working and continually modernize and calibrate to meet the varied threats. There is a system … that works; it involves coordination and information sharing and intelligence gathering from all sources—both in the intelligence community, of course, but also law enforcement and the Department of Defense.” Michael Horton outlines the Houthis’ expanding footprint in the Horn of Africa. He writes that securing supply chains and funding for their unmanned vehicle and missile programs, “especially funding and supplies that are independent of Iran, is a key objective for the Houthi leadership” and that “both AQAP and al-Shabaab now act as facilitators and, to a degree, as partners that help the Houthis smuggle needed materiel into and out of Yemen.” Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, and Marcel Plichta look at Africa Corps, Russia’s replacement for the Wagner Group in Africa. They write: “Russia’s Sahel strategy, and arguably its Africa strategy writ large, is one that promotes more disruption and chaos, not less. … Russia has limited CT experience and diminished incentives to invest the resources necessary to genuinely solve the complex security crises in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and across the greater Sahel—crises that demand much more than a military solution. Adding to the complications is the potential loss of Russian bases in Syria following the overthrow of the Assad regime. Any resulting Russian forfeiture of its bases … could make airlifting goods to Libya, the Sahel, and Central Africa significantly more challenging in the short term,” with implications for the endurability of Sahelian juntas propped up by Africa Corps.
Topic:
Terrorism, Transnational Actors, Houthis, Countering Violent Extremism, Private Military Companies (PMCs), and Transnational Threats
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Syria, United States of America, and Horn of Africa

104. The United Nations and Human Rights in North Korea

Author:
Raymond Ha
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Despite the emergence of geopolitical trends that threaten global stability, the United Nations is—and will remain—indispensable for the promotion of human rights in North Korea. Domestic political changes in South Korea and the United States have set the stage for robust multilateral coordination on North Korean human rights, including at the United Nations. The Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in North Korea remains the focal point of relevant activity within the United Nations, as the Seoul office of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights continues its work in the field. Moreover, the Security Council held a public discussion on North Korean human rights in August 2023 after a six-year hiatus, as South Korea, the United States, and other like-minded countries emphasized the connection between human rights and security issues. It will be vital to keep human rights at the forefront as North Korea reengages with the world following its COVID-19 lockdown. Finally, North Korea’s fourth cycle of the Universal Periodic Review in November 2024 will not only enable states and civil society organizations to spotlight Pyongyang’s human rights record, but also reveal opportunities for engagement going forward.
Topic:
Human Rights, United Nations, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

105. Seeking Safer Shells: An Analysis of Interpretations, Justifications, and Rationales Behind Decisions on North Korean Defectors’ Right to Asylum

Author:
Megumi Faith Mallari and Saleh Naas
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Despite their known and indisputable need for protection, North Koreans often have their applications for asylum rejected. This paper outlines the differing interpretations of North Koreans’ right to asylum and investigates the rationales and justifications behind them through the case studies of the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and China (PRC). The paper argues that the rationale of the European countries analyzed is based on their generally restrictive view on asylum, independent from their political positioning on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Contrastingly, the rationales of the United States and the PRC are grounded in interests directly related to the Korean peninsula and Cold War narratives.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Asylum, and Refugee Policy
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, France, Germany, Netherlands, and United States of America

106. Revising Organ Procurement Organization Guidelines to Obtaining Family Consent for Deceased Donation: An Anthropologically Informed Policy Proposal

Author:
Gillian Tisdale
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Organ transplantation has become a widespread medical practice with public policy designed to increase rates of deceased donation. When individuals have not registered as organ donors, next-of-kin are called on to make donation decisions—requiring families to grapple with the often-confusing concept of ‘brain death’ and parse their understanding of what the deceased would have wanted. Current public policy is explicitly designed to promote high donation rates without clear regard to the experiences of donor-families; at best, these policies prime donation conversations to involve unethical practices, while at worst, the disregard of kin’s experiences may also diminish deceased donation rates. Anthropological literature has documented the often aggressive tactics used by transplant organizations that demonstrate a disregard for the emotional experiences of kin. In 2023, Congress passed the Securing the U.S. Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Act, prompting the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to reevaluate organ donation policies and solicit requests for proposal for a new federal contractor to take over the network responsible for overseeing all organ sharing. This article leverages the relevant anthropological literature to provide guiding principles and proposed language amending the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Interpretive Guidance that HHS could implement as part of its modernization initiative. These principles aim to improve experiences for kin without lowering donation rates. The article recommends that HHS and its contractors collect metrics to measure the quality of Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) interactions, counterbalancing current benchmarks focused on procurement rates. It also recommends improved protocols to empathically and systematically support kin’s understanding of brain death.
Topic:
Legislation, Public Policy, Procurement, and Organ Transplants
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

107. Guam in Washington, 1972-Present: The Overlooked Strategic Implications of Congressional Polarization

Author:
Mirabai Venkatesh
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Contrary to the long-held logic that giving Guam a stronger, more autonomous voice will undermine U.S. strategic interests, failing to provide Guam with a stable pathway of interest advancement beyond Congress hinders its development and with it the federal government’s ability to achieve soft-power advantages and basic military readiness in the Indo-Pacific theater. Since the United States assumed responsibility for administering the territory of Guam in 1898, it has treated the prospect of Guam’s status improvement as detrimental to U.S. strategic interests. This has informed its chosen method of territorial administration, which places U.S. territories under the authority of the Department of the Interior. Each territory is then given only one formal representative in Congress, specifically the U.S. House of Representatives, but without full-voting rights. This paper will explore how Guam has managed to advance its interests in Washington since 1972, highlighting how congressional representation has become Guam’s most successful pathway of interest advancement with the federal government to date. However, the agency and success of Guam’s congressional delegates must be framed within a broader discussion of the fragility of the U.S. approach to territorial administration, which has relegated Guam to a pathway of interest advancement incredibly vulnerable to political sea change. Ultimately, this paper will illustrate how Guam’s main pathway of interest advancement in Washington is quickly narrowing at the expense of U.S. strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, History, Soft Power, Autonomy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and Guam

108. US Hegemony in Latin America: Think Tanks and the Formation of Consensus about the Chinese Presence

Author:
Luciana Wietchikoski and Livia Peres Milani
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
In recent years, U.S. government agencies have defined the Chinese presence in Latin America as a challenge, which has organized foreign policy towards the region. Departing from a neo-Gramscian approach, this paper investigates the bibliographical production of U.S. think tanks and seeks to understand the construction of consensus about the Chinese presence in Latin America. The methodology is based on content analysis and we identified two main narratives: in the first, the Chinese presence is presented as a threat to U.S. regional hegemony; in the second, the Chinese adaptation to liberal precepts is sought. There are therefore nuances in how the Chinese power is perceived, although the discourses remain restricted to the promotion of capitalism and neoliberalism under U.S. leadership.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and Think Tanks
Political Geography:
China, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

109. How American Public Opinion on Palestine Shifted

Author:
Geneive Abdo
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Overlapping connections among young activists struggling for the rights of women, 2SLGBTQIA+, Black Lives Matter, indigenous Indians, Latinos, and all people of color have produced a dramatic shift in how the Palestinian–Israeli conflict is being perceived in the United States
Topic:
Public Opinion, Solidarity, Protests, Ceasefire, and Activism
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

110. Covering the Palestinian–Israeli Conflict: Between Exasperation and Empathy

Author:
Lawrence Pintak
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
A personal reflection of American involvement in the region’s wars through the eyes of a correspondent
Topic:
Media, Journalism, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Empathy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

111. Gaza: Israel’s Unwinnable War

Author:
Richard Silverstein
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Even if, for argument’s sake, it achieved its war goals, Palestinian resistance will exist wherever there are Palestinians—whether in Sinai, Beirut, Ankara, Tehran or Amman
Topic:
Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Axis of Resistance, 2023 Gaza War, and AIPAC
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

112. UNRWA Funding is Burdened with Conditionality

Author:
Anne Irfan
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
The UN agency’s essential humanitarian role lies in the balance thanks to the political contingencies of its donors.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Donors, Funding, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

113. NATO: Waging High-Tech Warfare

Author:
Yury Belobrov
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
THE rapid technological progress observed in the last decade throughout the world, especially in China and Russia, threatens the established sources of military and industrial dominance of the collective West on the world stage. NATO views this as an alarming trend, and in an attempt to stop it, bloc members are making a determined effort to preserve their militarytechnological leadership and the international order structured around their policies. To this end, they are initiating a new arms race, partially through the active incorporation into the military sphere of the latest breakthrough technologies (Emerging and Disruptive Technologies – EDT), which, they believe, can reverse the emerging multipolarity of international relations and radically change the nature of future wars. Thus, the Allies are stepping up collective efforts to master innovative technologies and introduce them into the operational activities of NATO and all member nations to ensure their victory in future high-tech wars. They emphasize the urgency of adapting the armed forces of said countries to the realities of global technological advancement. As the communiqué adopted at the Alliance summit in Vilnius in 2023 directly stated: “We are accelerating our own efforts to ensure that the Alliance maintains its technological edge in emerging and disruptive technologies to retain our interoperability and military advantage including through dual-use solutions.”1 The US, as the main sponsor of NATO militarism, demands that its allies and partners closely and expeditiously collaborate on the creation of novel weaponry utilizing these emerging technologies and dramatically increase investment in various EDT projects and adapt their armed forces to them. Under the US’s diktat, Brussels and its American allies are creating new bureaucratic and financial entities. Private businesses and academic and research institutions are also being drawn into this sphere. To speed up this process, at the urging of Washington at the NATO summit in Brussels in 2021, a strategic initiative was launched to create the NATO Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA), which will manage and coordinate all this activity within NATO. The main task of this organization is to form an innovative technological network that unites R&D centers, innovative start-ups, defense enterprises, and military agencies in order to simultaneously and rapidly master all types of dual-use EDT technologies and implement them in the civilian and military fields. In addition to these efforts, a decision was also made to form a €1 billion NATO Innovation Fund to finance venture capital companies developing dual EDT in areas of strategic importance to NATO. Essentially, these decisions by the alliance are aimed at mobilizing European resources, primarily to strengthen American military power. Of course, the main efforts to field the latest technologies are being undertaken by the largest member nations.
Topic:
NATO, International Cooperation, Weapons, Innovation, Emerging Technology, High-Tech Wars, and Military and Industrial Advantage
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America

114. The Global West and Global South: Development Paths

Author:
Maria Zakharova
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
I would like to highlight the fact that Russia is notably absent, it would seem, from the “South-West” paradigm. This is because our country cannot be fully categorized as either Western or Southern. We exist everywhere, and yet we do not fit neatly into these constructs. Some perspectives associate Russia with the Global North, while others link us to the Global East. However, [Russia’s] 2023 Foreign Policy Concept, which Alexander Vladimirovich Yakovenko referenced, defines the Russian Federation as a “unique state-civilization and a vast Eurasian and Euro-Pacific power” – a scope broader than these conventional classifications. And in the context of our discussion today, it is imperative to acknowledge Russia’s influence on global affairs. The concept of the Global West is relatively straightforward; it encompasses the US, the EU countries, and to some extent the Asia- Pacific region, knit together by American-centric military, political, and economic alliances – what they call Euro-Atlantic values. This is a product of the historical West, which has been extending its influence over the non-Western world for around five centuries, starting from the Age of Discovery, in an attempt to dominate it by all possible means. However, it is worth noting that calling the current era neocolonialism may be overly generous. I would refrain from such a characterization, as it gives too much credit. While there are undoubtedly flaws in these cultures, they also have rich cultural histories. In recent decades, individuals have risen to power in the US and Britain whose thinking is characterized more by piracy and banditry than by a philosophical understanding of colonialism, which is by no means good. But this is worse than neocolonialism – it is outright robbery. To illustrate, I once used the analogy of the US acting like a cowboy in the Louvre who simply shoots everything in sight, unaware that the objects before him are valuable works of art.
Topic:
Security, Treaties and Agreements, Developing World, State, BRICS, Civilization, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States of America, Global South, and Global West

115. Civilizational War: The Will to Win

Author:
Andrey Ilnitsky
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
The US National Security Strategy defines the US as a global hegemon that sees no dividing lines between domestic and foreign policies and treats the world as its sphere of interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Globalization, National Security, War, Hegemony, Ideology, Civilization, Deep State, and Generative Models
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America

116. 'I Don't Know What Tomorrow will Bring': Understanding COVID-19’s Impact on the United States’ Stateless Population

Author:
Ashley Walters, Taryn Painter, and Heidi Meyers
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
In March 2020, COVID-19 was declared by the World Health Organisation (‘WHO’) as a global pandemic. Since the WHO’s declaration, it has become increasingly clear that the most vulnerable communities have experienced the brunt of the pandemic. Though race, ethnicity and economic status are considered in a majority of reports on the social, physical and financial impacts of COVID-19, there is little to no information on the impact of COVID-19 on stateless communities within the United States (‘US’). This research endeavours to add to the understanding of statelessness in the US by determining the impacts of COVID-19 on stateless people in the US through a survey scoping project. Through anonymous questionnaires completed by stateless individuals (n=19) in the United States, this study explores how stateless individuals have been impacted by the pandemic, including experiencing economic hardships, mental health challenges, physical health concerns and issues with documentation and legal status.
Topic:
Health, Economy, Mental Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Stateless Population, Vulnerability, Legal Status, and Documentation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America