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121. The Hellenic air – space violations by Turkish aircraft: A statistical assessment and a forecast

Author:
Vasileios Symeonidis and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper aims to assess the extent to which repeated attacks against sovereign Hellenic air space by Turkey along with the inevitably ensuing engagements between aircraft of the two sides follow a certain predetermined pattern of behaviour that can be detected based on a given statistical model, and if so, to what extent this pattern is predictable in terms of its intensity and the frequency of incidents. To this end, we use the Weibull statistical distribution as an appropriate tool for interpreting and quantifying the pattern of aggressive Turkish behaviour and calculating probabilities of occurrences. Based on this choice, we then proceed with a forecast of this behaviour in the near future. We provide specific mathematical formulae that can be readily used to calculate probabilities and forecast air space violations and engagements. Our models, based on historical data, assume that both Hellenic air space violations and engagement incidents will keep increasing but will inevitably reach a monthly maximum, constrained by the availability of property and human resources on the Turkish side. The conclusions drawn point to the fact that Turkey will at some point in the near future reach its capacity limits in terms of property and human resources used in such offensive exercises, and that there is very little that can be done to enhance the margins of such activities given the room provided by the Turkish economy, which seem to be prohibitive
Topic:
Security, Military Affairs, Airspace, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

122. Turkey’s approach to proxy war in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The last decade has seen a growing trend towards the use of proxies in the Middle East and North Africa following the outbreak of the Arab Spring. In this context, the issue of Turkey’s approach to proxy war in these regions has received considerable attention since 2016. Thereby, the purpose of this article is to investigate the essential characteristics of Turkish proxy war strategy in Syria and Libya. As such, this study intends to trace the development of Turkish proxy war strategy by making use of the conceptual frameworks proposed by Groh (2019), O’Brien (2012) and Art (1998). The most obvious finding to emerge from the analysis is that Turkey changed its indirect intervention strategy from donated assistance to proxy warfare in Syria and Libya when it saw a greater need to influence the result of the conflicts. In the case of Syria, this study has shown that the controlthrough-centralisation approach towards the Armed Syrian Opposition has enabled Turkey to carry out an effective proxy war strategy from 2016 onwards. In Libya, the results of this investigation have shown that theTurkish Army has pursued a proxy war strategy since Ankara and the Government of National Accord (GNA) signed an agreement on security and military cooperation in December 2019. The article concludes that Turkey has centralised many revolutionary groups under an Islamist-nationalistic vision and partnered them with its own military in order to expand its influence in the Middle East and North Africa.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria

123. Cloud system in digital human resources management in Turkey

Author:
Serap Ergen
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
With the changing technology, humanity has reached Industry 4.0 starting from the steam engine. With these developments, human resources in the organisations need to store and process data. A new application that enables digital human resources to easily access its data is cloud computing. The aim of this article is analyse how cloud technologies affect human resources management in Turkey. A descriptive method was used in this paper to explain the concept of digitalism in the discussed area and analyse the relationship between cloud system and digital human resources management. Data was drawn from the scientific and professional literature documents on this subject. Many organisations do not have enough knowledge about cloud computing in Turkey. There are also concerns about cloud systems security and economic equilibrium of companies. It is predicted that companies that adopt this technology will have a more efficient and comfortable human resources process and become more prosperous. Organisations should work for the development of human resources management system by digitising it. Organisations whose number of employees is increasing day by day, face problems, but they can handle this situation through the careful implementation of cloud computing. Cloud systems provide organisations with benefits such as storage capacity and easy access to data anytime and anywhere.
Topic:
Industry, Human Resources, Digital Policy, and Cloud Computing
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

124. Volume 70 Issue 1

Author:
Muhittin Kaplan
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published two times a year in June and December. It has been an official publication of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics since 1939. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English. Being one of the earliest peer-reviewed academic journals in Turkey in the area of economics, Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi aims to provide a forum for exploring issues in basicly economics and publish both disciplinary and multidisciplinary articles. Economics is the main scope of the journal. However, multidisciplinary and comparative approaches are encouraged as well and articles from various social science areas such as sociology of economics, history, social policy, international relations, financial studies are welcomed in this regard. The target group of the journal consists of academicians, researchers, professionals, students, related professional and academic bodies and institutions.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Oil, Political Science, Exchange Rate Policy, Macroeconomics, Currency, R&D, Price, and OECD
Political Geography:
Turkey, Nigeria, and Global Focus

125. Volume 70 Issue 2

Author:
Muhittin Kaplan
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published two times a year in June and December. It has been an official publication of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics since 1939. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English. Being one of the earliest peer-reviewed academic journals in Turkey in the area of economics, Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi aims to provide a forum for exploring issues in basicly economics and publish both disciplinary and multidisciplinary articles. Economics is the main scope of the journal. However, multidisciplinary and comparative approaches are encouraged as well and articles from various social science areas such as sociology of economics, history, social policy, international relations, financial studies are welcomed in this regard. The target group of the journal consists of academicians, researchers, professionals, students, related professional and academic bodies and institutions.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Sustainable Development Goals, Political Science, and Ecology
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

126. Turkish AK Parti’s Posture towards the 2003 War in Iraq The Impact of Religion amid Security Concerns

Author:
Alberto Gasparetto
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This paper focuses on Turkey’s foreign policymakers’ attitudes in the context of the 2003 US decision to wage war against Iraq. The main goal is to assess and downplay the impact of religion in relation to security-related concerns. Drawing on official speeches, interviews, declarations by key figures in the foreign policy process, the paper argues that religion is nothing more than an intervening factor in the case of Turkey’s approach to the 2003 war in Iraq. Therefore, notwithstanding the role of Islamist elites in the foreign policy decision-making of Turkey, Turkey’s foreign affairs were rather inspired by realist behaviour, driven by pragmatic considerations, aimed at pursuing rationalist goals.
Topic:
Security, Religion, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

127. Rethinking Key Drivers of Turkey’s Immigration Policies in the Wake of the 2016 Turkey -European Union Immigration Deal

Author:
Israel Nyaburi Nyadera and Billy Agwanda
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Turkey’s immigration policies have experienced several changes over the last century. The 2016 agreement between Turkey and the European Union has not only had a significant impact on how Turkey and the European Union deal with asylum seekers, but also revived the debate on the EU’s externalisation of immigration issues. This study aims to examine the impact of the agreement on Turkey’s immigration policymaking process. It identifies that while the European Union may seek to externalise immigration by entering into agreements with third-party states, Turkey’s immigration policies are largely influenced by a complex balance of domestic, regional, and political interest.
Topic:
Migration, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Immigration, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

128. Intellectual Capital in Islamic Banking Sector: Evidence from Turkey

Author:
Hakan Uslu
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The Islamic banking sector has experienced a rapid development both in Muslim and non-Muslim geographies. In this study, using a panel dataset spanning the time period 2005-2018 and several econometric estimations, how intellectual capital affects the financial performance of the participation banks, as Islamic banks are called in Turkey is analysed. The Value-Added Intellectual Coefficient model (VAIC), a well-known methodology, is utilised as a measure for intellectual capital performances and return on assets (ROA) and return on shareholders’ equity (ROE), in general, financial performances of the banks. The results of the analyses provide evidence for a positive and statistically significant impact of intellectual capital on financial performances of Islamic banks operating in Turkey. The results also suggest that employed capital efficiency and structural capital efficiency in the operations of Islamic banks are the two crucial factors for their profitability, while human capital efficiency has no statistical relationship with their financial performances. The current study contributes to the relevant literature since there is no study on Islamic banks of Turkey in the aspect of intellectual capital and helps Islamic bankers, such as executives, investors and shareholders, or policymakers in understanding and determining their positions regarding intellectual capital.
Topic:
Banks, Financial Institutions, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

129. Turkish Foreign Policy in a Changing World Order

Author:
Tarik Oguzlu
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article argues that there is a close relationship between the structure of the international system/order and how states define their foreign policy interests and then act accordingly. The main contention is that Turkey’s foreign policy performance since 2002 can be partially read as Turkey’s effort to adapt to external developments at international and regional levels. As the international system has evolved from a unipolar order (in which the United States, in cooperation with its European allies, provided the main public goods in an hegemonic fashion), into a post-unipolar era, Turkey has accelerated its efforts to pursue a more multi-dimensional and multi-directional foreign approach. Rather than arguing that there is a direct causation between the independent variable of systemic factors and the dependent variable of Turkey’s foreign policy performance, this article understands the external environment as a ‘context’ in which Turkish decision makers have responded to Turkey’s responses to foreign policy developments.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Affairs, Emerging Powers, and International System
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

130. Ideologies and the Western Question in Turkish Foreign Policy: A Neo-classical Realist Perspective

Author:
Sevket Ovali and Ali Murat Özdemir
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Growing anti-Western sentiments around the world are currently manifesting themselves through divergent ways ranging from peaceful resistance movements to various forms of political violence. In the Middle East, unlike the earlier partially secular and nationalist Cold War anti-Americanism, the current popular anti-Western political movements are heavily equipped with Islamism, which appears to be an all-inclusive ideology and political movement for almost all dissidents. This applies to Turkey as well, despite its relatively long history of secularisation. This research particularly aims therefore to discuss the role of nationalism and Islamism on anti-Western sentiments in Turkish foreign policy through the lens of neo-classical realism and a new, broader conceptual framework: The Western Question. The research examines the contours, contents, and consequences of the problem through comparing two cases, namely the Cyprus problem of the 1970s and the crisis with the West that has surfaced after Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian Civil War.
Topic:
Political Violence, European Union, Conflict, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, North America, Cyprus, and United States of America

131. The Role of International Seabed Authority with Respect to the Administration of Mineral Resources

Author:
Şûle Anlar Güneş
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Deep ocean floor called as Area is considered as Common Heritage of Mankind (CHM) and the mining activities are managed by International Seabed Authority (ISA). In this article, firstly, the significance of the CHM concept with respect to decolonised states and its impact on law of the sea is elaborated. Secondly, the mandate of ISA which assumed responsibility for the translation of the CHM concept into practice is examined. Every state can take part in mining activities in the Area as a ‘sponsor state’ but the lack of precision with respect to responsibility limits have a deterrent effect over the states that are disadvantaged technically and financially. Considering the negative impact of this issue over the CHM concept the Advisory Opinion of the International Tribunal for Law of the Sea that was given in 2011 is examined.
Topic:
International Law, United Nations, Natural Resources, Law of the Sea, Maritime, and Mining
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Global Focus

132. Interpreters as Diplomatic Actors in the Trump Era

Author:
Seckin Baris Gulmez, Nihal Yetkin Karakoc, and Didem Buhari Gulmez
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article investigates the impact of interpreters on the US foreign policy that is defined with a tradition of anti- diplomacy in the Trump era. The literature in both International Relations and Translation Studies often overlooks the impact of interpreters on diplomacy and fails to consider interpreter as an actor per se. In this context, the study will investigate the initiatives undertaken by interpreters in order to fill the emerging gap in the diplomatic sphere in terms of diplomatic language, customs and actors in the Trump era. Accordingly, the article first comparatively examines the role of interpreters and diplomats and then, discusses the key roles of interpreters in diplomacy under two main categories: “communication filter” involving time-gaining strategy, moderation and gatekeeping and “conciliation” that includes the roles of scape goat, crisis prevention and mediation. Overall, this study demonstrates that interpreters have a greater space of manoeuvre than is generally assumed in terms of influencing diplomatic processes. By establishing the missing link between International Relations and Translation Studies, this study aims to become a pioneering work that contributes to the debate about whether interpreters can be considered as an important diplomatic actor.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Translation, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Turkey, North America, and United States of America

133. Twitter Diplomacy in Turkey - US Relations

Author:
Ali Sevket Ovali
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The use of Twitter has become an important part of foreign policy making and conducting in the recent years. Since it is seen as the most powerful and popular tool of digital diplomacy, foreign policy makers increasingly use Twitter for sending messages to their counterparts and to inform their followers on certain issues, problems or current topics on their country’s foreign policy agenda. Taking the popularity of Twitter use in foreign policy, this study aims to discuss the role of Twitter diplomacy on Turkey-US relations. In this respect, how and for which purposes foreign policy makers in Turkey and the US use Twitter, which topics are mostly covered by the tweets of the selected top- level decision-makers’ accounts, the positive and negative impacts of Twitter on the current status of bilateral relations and the role that Twitter is likely to play in the future of relations are the points that are going to be dealt within the framework of this study.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Social Media, Donald Trump, and Twitter
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

134. Foreign Policy as a Contested Front of the Cultural Wars in Turkey: The Middle East and Turkey in the Era of the AKP

Author:
Dogan Gurpinar
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article analyses the evolving discourses over Turkish foreign policy deeply entrenched within the Turkish cultural wars. It demonstrates the process and mechanisms that render Turkish foreign policy an extension of the pursuit of cultural politics and statements of identity. It also assesses how the Middle East was posited not only as a theater of diplomacy but also as a rhetorical gadget over contested Turkish identity, especially pushed by the AKP intelligentsia and policymakers and avidly defied by the secular opposition. Its emphasis is on the Arab Spring and Turkey’s immersion into the Syrian civil war, as these developments exacerbated the overlap between foreign policy making and discourses on foreign policy, particularly since the AKP sought not only diplomatic opportunities but also a regional transnational realignment as a result of the Arab Spring and the regional revolutionary milieu.
Topic:
Populism, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Islamism, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

135. The Pushback Against Populism: Running on “Radical Love” in Turkey

Author:
F. Michael Wuthrich and David Ingleby
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Drawing from the 2019 mayoral elections in Turkey, this paper highlights a path that opposition parties might take to defuse polarized environments and avoid playing into the political traps set by populists in power. The particular type of moral and amplified polarization that accompanies populism’s essential “thin” ideology builds a barrier between a populist’s supporters and the opposition. Yet the CHP opposition in Turkey has recently won notable victories with its new campaign approach of “radical love,” which counteracts populism’s polarizing logic and has exposed Erdoğan’s weakness.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Populism, and Authority
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

136. Market Seeking & Strategy Development In West and North African Countries: A Turkish Family Business Experience

Author:
Esra Dil and Souleymane Bindjo
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
This study aims to reveal the situation of small-scale family businesses that are looking for a market in Western and North African countries and want to realize their growth strategies in this region, and to develop solutions for their growth problems. For this purpose, the market development stages of the selected ABC Company were evaluated within the scope of action research. One of the researchers worked in the company within the scope of UPEP (Üniversiteden Pazar Elçiliğine Projesi -From University to the Market Ambassador Project) in the field to conduct action research, while the other researcher supervised the process academically. Inherent in action research is an approach to find a solution to the problem of the unit that is the subject of the research. The researchers analyzed the market search and development strategies of the company subject to the research and seek solutions for their growth problems. As a result of the research, it is concluded that the example ABC Company, which wants to be effective in these markets, will follow the stage model while opening up to international markets, and will be more effective in terms of penetration into the market. The literature that this result is suitable for small-scale family businesses that are in search of similar support has been supported.
Topic:
Business, Internationalization, and Strategic Management
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, and North Africa

137. Uluslararasi Hukukun Eksi̇k Uygulanişina Bi̇r Örnek: Bosna-hersek’te Uluslararasi Toplumun Müdahaleleri̇

Author:
Burak Çakirca
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Balkanlardaki birçok farklı unsuru bünyesinde barındıran Bosna Hersek, bu karmaşık yapı nedeniyle bazı sıkıntılı süreçler geçirmiştir. Yirminci yüzyılın son döneminde en büyük trajediler arasında sayılan Sırplar ile Boşnaklar arasındaki savaş bölgede birçok yıkım ve tahribata sebep olmuştur. Bosna’da Uluslararası hukukun diplomatik yöntemler, uluslararası örgütlerin ve uluslararası yargının müdahalesi vasıtasıyla tüm imkanlarının kullanıldığı görülmektedir. Ancak bu imkanların çatışmaları engellemedeki başarısı tartışmalı olmuştur. Bu çalışma, söz konusu methotların hangi düzeyde etkide bulunduğu sorunsallaştırmaktadır. Uluslararası hukukun eksik uygulanışının meydana getirdiği büyük sorunların gösterilmesi çalışmanın amacını oluşturmaktadır.
Topic:
International Law, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

138. Mevduat Bankalarinin Fi̇nansal Performanslarinin Siralanmasi: Türk Mevduat Bankalarinin Critic Ve Mairca Yöntemleri̇yle Performans Anali̇zi̇ | Ranking of Financial Performance of Deposit Banks: Performance Analysis of Turkish Deposit Banks by Mairca and Critic Methods

Author:
Selahattin Bektaş
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Bu çalışmanın amacı 2018-2019 yılları için mevduat bankalarının finansal performansının Entropi ve Mairca (Multi Attributive İdeal-Real Comparative Analysis) yöntemlerinin ortak kullanımı hesaplanıp sıralanmasıdır. Bu minvalde Türkiye genelinde yüz ve üzeri şubesi olan on üç adet mevduat bankası çalışma kapsamına dahil edilmiştir. Çalışmada, analiz için kullanılan, Toplam Aktifler, Toplam Kredi ve Alacaklar, Toplam Mevduatlar, Toplam Özkaynaklar, Şube Sayısı ve Personel Sayısı kriterleri kullanılarak mevduat bankalarının finansal performansları hesaplanmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda 2018-2019 yılları için en iyi finansal performansa sahip mevduat bankası T.C. Ziraat Bankası, en kötü finansal performansa sahip mevduat bankası ise Şeker Bank olarak tespit edilmiştir. | The purpose of this study is to calculate and use the joint use of CRITIC and Mairca (Multi Attributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis) methods of deposit banks for 2018-2019. In this manner, and over a hundred branches throughout Turkey with thirteen commercial banks were included in the study. In the study, the financial performances of deposit banks were calculated using the Total Assets, Total Loans and Receivables, Total Deposits, Total Equity, Number of Branches and Number of Employees used for analysis. According to the analysis results, Ziraat Bank is the best bank in 2018. The best bank in 2019 is Ak Bank. The worst bank in 2018-2019 is Deniz Bank
Topic:
Finance, Economy, and Banks
Political Geography:
Turkey

139. Maritime 4.0 And Expectations in Maritime Sector

Author:
Dursun Balkan
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
As the rapid development of communication and information technologies allows real-time transmission of information, the world is increasingly becoming a global society. In this context, the most developed countries are required to develop their own strategies to encourage the industrial sector to stay up to date and compete in a dynamic and volatile global market in order to maintain its competitive capacity. For this reason, since the path of competitiveness through technological differentiation in industrialization provides a wider and innovative field of research, it reveals the result of a new phase of organization and industrial technology that is beginning to change our relationship with industry, society and human interaction in the business world at present standards. The main target of this study is to reveal the effects of Industry 4.0 on the Maritime sector using with the explanation of the historical development and conceptual framework of today's high technology industry 4.0 and its expectations in maritime sector in the light of the relevant literature. The whole worldwide maritime applications and their reflections on all fields are also the scope of this study. A qualitative descriptive analysis method was conducted to determine the current situation of Maritime Sector which is including Industry 4.0 processes. The findings of this study are Marine-related organizations should be reshaped to meet the needs of the future. Measures and regulations related to the increasing environmental protection sensitivity in the world will directly affect almost every area of the sector. Also, the developing technologies, increasing customer demand and intense competition; it will make the recently introduced Industry 4.0 implementation inevitable.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Communications, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

140. Do Private Sector Short-term External Debt Have Impact on Credit Default Swap Premiums In Turkey? An Analysis with Asymmetric Threshold Cointegration Approach

Author:
Esra N. Kilci and Burcu Kiran
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
A country’s capacity to pay short-term external debt, which reflects the fiscal strenght of an economy against adverse shocks, is significantly taken into consideration by international investors in their decision making process. It has been seen that Turkey has experienced a gradually increasing private sector short-term external debt especially in the last twenty-year period. The objective of this study is to investigate the long-run relationship between private sector short-term external debt and CDS (credit default swap) premiums in Turkey for the period of 2000:Q4-2017:Q4 by using asymmetric threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) procedures of Enders and Siklos (2001). The results indicate that CDS premiums and private sector short-term external debt in Turkey are cointegrated. After finding cointegration, the null hypothesis of symmetric adjustment is tested against the alternative of asymmetric adjustment and the evidence of symmetric adjustment is found, suggesting that the relationship between the private sector short-term external debt and CDS premiums has the same effect in expansion and contraction periods.
Topic:
Debt, Private Sector, and Credit
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East