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1. Coopetition and Non-Profit Performance in War-Torn Region: Role of Outside Knowledge and Innovative Climate

Author:
Bella Gulshan and Muhammad Mohsen Liaqat
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
The inconsistent findings on the association between non-profit coopetition and performance are complicated and contingent on essential factors. However, our current understanding of the circumstances under which non-profit coopetition matters to performance is limited. We take a novel context to address this question and build on the combined literature from the emerging non-profit coopetition literature. This study conceptualises and tests the impact of coopetition (simultaneous cooperation and competition) on the organisational performance of non-profit organisations in a war-torn region. Notably, it investigates the simultaneous cooperation and competition in non-profits’ social and financial performance via outside knowledge and innovative climate. An in-person survey with 158 executives and board members was conducted in Baghdad Governorate, Iraq. The survey adopted reliable and valid scales to measure the variables. Structural equation modelling was applied to test the mediation model. The proposed sequential mediating model has a good model fit with all four hypotheses statistically significant. Nonprofit engagement in coopetition positively affects organisation performance via mediators: use of outside knowledge and innovative climate. Cooperation with competitors helps non-profits to effectively use the outside knowledge that forms an innovative climate at the organisational level. Additionally, the use of outside knowledge has a direct effect on performance. Non-profits should integrate outside and internal knowledge to generate sustainable financial and social performance opportunities, especially in turbulent or war-torn regions. Moreover, context is imperative for non-profit leaders to identify themselves and seek inter-organisational relationships. The study also provides theoretical and practical implications that help non-profit leaders innovate and increase organisational performance.
Topic:
Conflict, Innovation, Non-profits, Cooperation, and Competition
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

2. Ontological Insecurity, Anxiety, and Hubris: An Affective Account of Turkey-KRG Relations

Author:
Özlem Kayhan Pusane and Asli Ilgit
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Given Iraqi Kurds’ special place in Turkey’s ‘biographical narrative’, Turkey-Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) relations are not simply strategic or economic but also highly affectively charged. These relations involve emotional encounters filled with anxiety, pride, anger, and disappointment that generate concerns for not only Turkey’s physical security but also its ontological security. This paper traces the emotional context of Turkey- KRG relationship. It suggests that a combination of Turkey’s deep-rooted ‘anxiety’ and ‘hubris’ toward the Iraqi Kurds prevented the emergence of a close partnership between these two actors and fostered merely a ‘fragile rapprochement’ since 2008.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Identity
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Kurdistan

3. The Legal Role of Government in Protecting Cultural Heritage and Archaeological Sites in the War-Affected Countries: The Case of Iraq and Syria

Author:
Rukhsar Ahmad
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Conserving cultural heritage and archaeological sites have become a serious national concern in the Middle East for the war-affected countries, including Iraq and Syria. Because looting and violence have caused massive destruction of cultural heritage and archaeological sites, this study aimed to analyze the legal background concerning the protection of cultural heritage and archaeological sites in the context of Iraq and Syria during 2014 with the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This study used the content analysis method and cross-country analyses for Iraq and Syria. The study is guided by two main questions: What is the government's legal role in protecting cultural heritage and archaeological sites? Are there any legal authorities in Iraq and Syria to protect cultural heritage and archaeological sites during war and conflict? In the end, this paper suggests that protecting cultural heritage is the legal responsibility of government which is supposed to be enforced in the legal foundation of the state as a national sovereign power.
Topic:
War, Governance, Culture, Legal Theory, Heritage, and Archaeology
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

4. Global threat landscape 2022

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Three trends will characterise the evolving global terror threat landscape in 2022. First, the cascading implications of the return of the Taliban-al Qaeda alliance to Afghanistan on August 15, 2021. Second, the diffusion of the Islamic State threat from the Levant, notably from Iraqi-Syrian theatre. Third, the online surge of extremist and violent content especially of Islamist and Far Right entities on servers in North America and Europe mobilising and radicalizing especially youth. With lockdowns, partial lockdowns and other pandemic restrictions, the challenges facing government security forces - military, law enforcement and intelligence surged and both in resource allocation for training and mobility for operations hampered their performance and efficacy. The focus on humanitarian challenges by governments during the pandemic was ably exploited by threat groups to expand their support bases or capture territory. On the other hand, a range of ideological and material threats manifested in 2021. Some will institutionalise both in the physical and digital spaces in 2022. With radicalisation and reciprocal radicalisation of Islamists and Far Right threat groups, their networks, cells and personalities will stage attacks.
Topic:
Taliban, Radicalization, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Islamism, and Digital Space
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and Syria

5. January 2022 Issue

Author:
Michael Knights, Alex Almeida, Don Rassler, Brian Fishman, and Amira Jadoon
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Notwithstanding a night attack that killed 11 Iraqi soldiers on an army base in the Iraqi province of Diyala earlier this month, the Islamic State is at its lowest ebb in Iraq in many years, according to new data published by Michael Knights and Alex Almeida in this month’s feature article. They write that “a comprehensive analysis of attack metrics shows an insurgency that has deteriorated in both the quality of its operations and overall volume of attack activity, which has fallen to its lowest point since 2003. The Islamic State is increasingly isolated from the population, confined to remote rural backwaters controlled by Iraq’s less effective armed forces and militias, and lacks reach into urban centers.” They note that “the key analytical quandary that emerges from this picture is whether the downtrend marks the onset of an enduring decline for the group, or if the Islamic State is merely lying low while laying the groundwork for its survival as a generational insurgency.” In this month’s interview, Amy Zegart speaks to Brian Fishman and Don Rassler about her soon-to-be published book Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence. In the interview, she calls for the creation in the United States of a dedicated open-source intelligence agency because “OSINT will never get the priority or resources the nation needs without its own agency.” Amira Jadoon, Abdul Sayed, and Andrew Mines assess the threat trajectory of Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) in the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. They assess that “given the absence of multilateral counterterrorism pressure, the Taliban’s limited capacity to govern, and a worsening humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, ISK now finds itself perhaps in the most permissive environment yet to rebuild, rally, and expand.” Drawing on extensive fieldwork, including interviews with bandits and jihadi defectors, James Barnett, Murtala Ahmed Rufa’i, and Abdulaziz Abdulaziz examine the nexus between Nigeria’s bandits and jihadi organizations in northwestern Nigeria. They find that despite widespread fears bandits and jihadis would find common cause, there has been infrequent cooperation between them because they have conflicting approaches in their treatment of local inhabitants and because the more powerful bandits feel they have little to gain from working with the jihadis.
Topic:
Crime, Insurgency, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and Nigeria

6. Violence as A Form of Political Conduct: The Case of the Islamic State

Author:
Jülide Karakoç
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Following Hannah Arendt’s approach, which distinguishes power and violence and claims that violence appears when power is threatened or fails, this paper argues that the use of violence by Islamic State (IS) is a result of its inability to establish a stable power base in the Middle East. It argues, however, that violence has become a form of political conduct for this organisation, which challenges to Arendtian perspective rejecting any role violence plays in politics and has many repercussions in Middle Eastern societies and politics. This paper notes that local people feel hatred and rage against certain developments in the region, such as their countries’ colonial past, the Iraqi invasion and their failed administrations. Analysing how these reactions are directed in the form of violence by IS against some local groups, the paper examines further the regional consequences of the IS’ use of violence.
Topic:
Politics, Islamic State, Violence, and Hannah Arendt
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

7. Civil Society & Political Transformations (Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, Fall 2021)

Author:
Ghazi Ghazi
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Eleven years after the 2011 Arab Spring, feelings of transformation and change still reverberate throughout the region. The Spring 2022 edition, Civil Society and Political Transformations, seeks to illuminate how civil society organizations operate in the region and their effects on political transformations.
Topic:
Civil Society, Education, Human Rights, Migration, Politics, Race, History, Reform, Women, Constitution, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Baath Party, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, North Africa, Syria, Jordan, Morocco, and United Arab Emirates

8. Rethinking Recovery: How to Sustainably Support Communities A!ected by Genocide and Sexual Violence

Author:
Nadia Murad
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In August 2014, the Islamic State (ISIS) surrounded Yazidi villages in Sinjar, Iraq as part of an e2ort to ethnically cleanse Yazidis from existence. Over a two-week period, ISIS militants murdered more than 5,000 men and older women, took more than 6,000 women and children captive, and forced more than 400,000 individuals to 1ee their homes.1 I lived in one of those villages. My family members were killed and dumped into unmarked, mass graves. My sisters, nieces, and I were taken captive and forced into sexual slavery. 3is was no accident. Sexual violence has long been used as a weapon of war. ISIS believed that violating Yazidi women would destroy the community from within.2 For much of history, the use of sexual violence as a weapon has been considered an unfortunate byproduct of con1ict at the high- est levels of peace and security. While the international community has begun to recognize sexual violence as a weapon, many survivors are still silenced by shame and stigma. It is imperative that the taboo surrounding sexual violence is broken so that the international community can work proactively to prevent and respond to this gender-based weapon.
Topic:
Genocide, Islamic State, Sexual Violence, and Yazidis
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

9. THE APPLIED STATE OF VIOLATION OF WOMEN'S RIGHTS IN ARMED CONFLICTS: YAZIDI WOMEN DURING THE ISIS WAR IN IRAQ

Author:
Roza Omer Hamadamin, Nor Anita Abdullah, and Mohd Zakhiri Md. Nor
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
On 3 August 2014, fighters from the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) attacked the Yazidi minority of Sinjar in Kurdistan-Iraq. The Yazidi community was the main target of ISIS fighters, including Yazidi women. The ISIS group has committed violence against Yazidi women in several ways. This study aims to show the crimes committed by the group ISIS against Yazidi women and to highlight the problem of violence against women in war through recent living examples, such as women in the ISIS war between 2014-2017. The second part of this study identifies the legal deficiencies related to the regulations that guarantee the protection of women's rights in Iraq. Through a content analysis approach, qualitative methodologies are used. Also, based on a thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews, this paper found that the Yazidi women and girls have been subjected to the most heinous crimes involving international crimes. Furthermore, despite various legal provisions in Iraqi laws and the constitution relating to protecting women's rights, these laws have several legal deficiencies. The Iraqi legal authority has not attempted to guarantee sufficient protection for women's rights in armed conflicts.
Topic:
Human Rights, Women, Islamic State, Armed Conflict, Human Rights Violations, and Yazidis
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

10. THE IMPACT OF ISIS ON IRAQ’S NATIONAL SECURITY: REVIEW OF THE PERIOD FROM 2014 TO 2017

Author:
Araz Ramazan Ahmad and Gardwn Tahir Othman
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
In the post-Ba’athist era, stability and national security remain the two key goals. Iraq has suffered from many extremist terrorist groups on several separate stages from 2003 to 2017. The most threatening terrorist group was ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), which has enormous impacts on Iraqi society, given the vast geographical areas that it controlled, and the dangers, crimes and violations suffered by the Iraqi people with all its components. The main aim of this study is to determine the impacts of ISIS on Iraqi national security. The study relied on Content Analysis Method to analyze the collected data and achieve its aims. Also, the primary research question is about the impact of ISIS on Iraq’s national security from 2014 to 2017. Correspondingly, an international coalition of more than a hundred countries was formed to stop the rapid expansion of ISIS. The number of victims who lost their lives and were affected at the psychological and humanitarian levels was explained in this study. According to the research results, ISIS was seeking long-term goals. The most important was the preparation for disseminating this new extremist ideology. The intelligence and the exploitation of poverty, ignorance, and political conflicts that ISIS used aimed to implant the extremist mentality in the most significant number of attention.
Topic:
National Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and International Coalition
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

11. Ratification, Reservations, and Review: Exploring the Role of the CEDAW Compliance Mechanisms in Women’s Rights

Author:
Ellinore Ahlgren
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
This paper examines whether frequent engagement with the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination Against Women, the body of independent experts monitoring the implementation of the Convention of the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women, is linked to improved compliance with women’s rights commitments. It further explores whether the relationship between treaty body interaction and compliance holds for states that have made reservations to articles concerning women’s rights. Data from state reports submitted to the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination Against Women and indicators from the Social Institutions and Gender Index show that frequent engagement with the body is associated with improved equality for women, irrespective of state reservations. The results from this study challenge the idea that reservations undermine global governance regimes and are detrimental to human rights. Finally, this paper illustrates how compliance mechanisms work using a case study from Iraq. Through participation in the report-and-review process, states engage in negotiation around contentious areas of women’s rights with experts, civil society and the public, which facilitates respect for women’s rights.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, Governance, Women, Compliance, and Case Study
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Middle East, and Asia-Pacific

12. The Role of Media in Peacebuilding in Iraq after ISIS

Author:
Araz Ramazan Ahmad
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The victory over the territorial rule of the so-called Islamic State provides an opportunity for the government of Iraq to restore its state institutions and reassert its authority. Can the Iraqi leadership step beyond cycles of failure in this transition to tackle the systemic issues that sustain state weakness and promote the emergence of groups like ISIS? This paper aims to enlighten the challenges faced by Iraq after ISIS for the restoration of peace between minorities and religious groups, and coexistence after the myth, so that conflicts are going on between minorities and religious groups, particularly in Mosul and other cities under the control of ISIS, the state could not reconcile the displaced people. Correspondingly, this paper intends the focus and role of local, regional, and international media in the process of peacebuilding and coexistence in Iraq after ISIS.
Topic:
Terrorism, Peacekeeping, Counter-terrorism, Media, ISIS, and State Building
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

13. October 2021 Issue

Author:
Don Rassler, Michael Knights, Michael Smith, Crispin Smith, Hamdi Malik, Sean Morrow, and Jonathan Schroden
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Michael Knights, Crispin Smith, and Hamdi Malik examine the increased discordance within the Iran Threat Network militias in Iraq (muqawama) based on their detailed tracking of recent dynamics for the “Militia Spotlight” platform at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. They find that “while the IRGC-QF (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force) still runs Iran’s covert operations inside Iraq, they face growing difficulties in controlling local militant cells. Hardline anti-U.S. militias struggle with the contending needs to de-escalate U.S.-Iran tensions, meet the demands of their base for anti-U.S. operations, and simultaneously evolve non-kinetic political and social wings.” The authors assess that, having under-performed in the recent elections, the muqawama will likely prioritize a bottom-up approach to building up their political base. And they warn that “any shift from Iran’s de-escalatory position, perhaps linked to a failure of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks—or a more significant loss of Iranian influence over muqawama factions—could trigger a sustained escalation of muqawama operations against the U.S.-led coalition in 2022 and beyond.” In this month’s interview, former U.S. National Security Advisor Lieutenant General (Ret) H.R. McMaster provides his perspective on what led to the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan. In a commentary, Don Rassler argues that the United States needs to better leverage its vast terrorism data holdings by creating a new terrorism and counterterrorism data action plan that exploits the power of data-science and artificial intelligence driven approaches. That plan, he writes, should include five key precepts: 1) reinvest in and advance core terrorism data, 2) strategically leverage captured material, 3) better develop and utilize counterterrorism data, 4) practice data alchemy, and 5) automate basic and other analytical tasks, and augment data. Jonathan Schroden looks at lessons learned from the 2021 collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces’ (ANDSF). He writes that six themes that emerge are: “the ANDSF collapse was months—if not years—in the making; the United States did not give the ANDSF everything they needed to be independently successful; the ANDSF did put up a fierce fight in many areas; the ANDSF were poorly served by Afghan political leaders; the ANDSF were poorly served by their own commanders; and the Taliban strategy overwhelmed and demoralized the ANDSF. From these themes, there are three key lessons: the ANDSF’s failure had many fathers; the U.S. model of security assistance requires reform; and greater emphasis on non-material factors (e.g., morale) is needed in future security force assessments.”
Topic:
Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, Artificial Intelligence, Data, and Militias
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

14. Beyond Borders: Middle East in Empire, Diaspora, and Global Transitions (Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, Spring 2021)

Author:
Reilly Barry
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The Middle East saw its share of globe-altering events in the last year. While JMEPP seeks to offer original analysis beyond the headlines, almost all major contemporary regional developments have been addressed in the present edition. The list, of course, is not exhaustive, but includes the Abraham Accords and increasing international marginalization of Palestinians, the renewed fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, continued protests amidst crises and weakening state institutions in Lebanon, and the rise of Turkey’s aggressive imperial foreign policy, to name a few. While there are major global transitions afoot as relates to the region, there is also a lack of transition— sadly, the 10-year anniversary of the Syrian revolution marks little change for those living under the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad. Likewise, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen persists. The edition discusses what may become of newly inaugurated President Biden’s policies toward the region, including the challenge of renegotiating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. And finally, the edition would be remiss to not address how Covid-19 has impacted the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Diaspora, Refugees, Social Media, Alliance, Conflict, Protests, Peace, Houthis, COVID-19, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Georgia, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh

15. Iraqi Police: A Hard Place Between State and Society

Author:
Afzal Ashraf
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Experts suggest that a police force should closely reflect its state’s constitution and its societal fabric.1 It follows, therefore, that the design of a new policing system or the reform of an old one will be affected by the ideas and the realities of power within the state and by the nature of its society. Nowhere are these principles more visible than in the reconstruction of a post–conflict country. The underlying assumption in such situations is that police reform is a fundamental element of conflict management because a police force, supported by society, can mitigate insecurity and play a significant part in the economic and political development of a country.2 This assumption has one fundamental flaw. For a police force to help deliver security and development in a post–conflict situation, there should exist at least a modicum of security and economic and political development. This “chicken and egg” situation is most starkly evident in the attempts to reform the police service following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. The security sector reform programs in Iraq, of which police reform is a component, not only challenge some assumptions upon which international development is based, but also provide potential insights into the relationship between the police, power, economic security, and society in general. These relationships could also apply to developed countries as their political and eco- nomic systems are challenged or changed by global events.
Topic:
Development, State, Police, Society, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

16. January 2020 Issue

Author:
Paul Cruickshank, Michael Knights, Haroro J. Ingram, Craig Whiteside, Charlie Winter, Seth Loertscher, Ariane Tabatabai, and Gina Vale
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The January 3, 2020, U.S. drone strike that killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and Kata’ib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis at Baghdad International Airport will likely have consequences that reverberate across the region and beyond for years. In our first feature article, Michael Knights focuses on the potential consequences for Iraq. He writes that the removal of Soleimani and al-Muhandis, “in combination with resistance from protestors, religious leaders, and the international community, could slow or stall the consolidation of [Tehran-backed] militia power in Iraq.” Ariane Tabatabai assesses that although Soleimani “was perhaps unparalleled in his ability to advance Iranian national interests as viewed by the regime,” the Quds Force is “unlikely to change its modus operandi significantly and that the new Quds Force commander, Esmail Qaani, is likely to ensure a smooth transition.” In our second feature article, Haroro Ingram, Craig Whiteside, and Charlie Winter—the authors of the soon-to-be-published book The ISIS Reader: Milestone Texts of the Islamic State Movement—“present three frames through which to understand the [Islamic State] movement’s ability to navigate through spectacular highs and crippling lows.” Our interview is with Rob Saale, who between 2017 and 2019 was the director of the U.S. Hostage Recovery Fusion Cell, an interagency group housed at the FBI. Gina Vale examines a collection of 24 internal Islamic State documents obtained by U.S. military forces operating in Iraq and Syria and declassified through the Combating Terrorism Cen-ter’s Harmony Program. She writes that the documents indicate “the Islamic State sought to translate citizens’ compliance with pious ideals into long-term acceptance of the group’s ideological legitimacy and governing authority.” The full collection of documents, including English translation, is now available on the CTC’s website.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Qassem Soleimani, and Militias
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

17. May 2020 Issue

Author:
Eran Benedek, Neil Simon, Michael Knights, Alex Almeida, Mette Mayli Albaek, Puk Damasgard, Mahmoud Shiekh Ibrahim, Troels Kingo, Jens Vithner, and Nakissa Jahanbani
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
One painful lesson from the history of terrorism is just how dangerous one single capable international attack planner can be. Little has been written in English about Basil Hassan, a radicalized Danish engineering graduate of Lebanese descent who became one of the most dangerous international attack operatives within the Islamic State. In this issue’s first feature article, Mette Mayli Albæk, Puk Damsgård, Mahmoud Shiekh Ibrahim, Troels Kingo and Jens Vithner build on a two-year investigative report for the Danish public broadcaster DR to provide a detail-rich profile. The authors write: “As the key figure in a drone procurement network that stretched from Europe through Turkey to Syria, [Hassan] was instrumental in furthering the Islamic State’s drone-warfare capabilities. As ‘the Controller’ behind the 2017 Sydney airline plot, he pulled the strings from Syria in directing one of the most ambitious and innovative terrorist plots ever seen.” There are claims Hassan was killed in the second half of 2017, but the authors note that Danish counterterrorism officials are still not certain that he is dead. In our second feature article, Michael Knights and Alex Almeida find that “the Islamic State has recovered from its territorial defeats since 2017 to mount a strong and sustained resurgence as an insurgent force inside Iraq.” Their analysis of attack metrics from the past 18 months paints “a picture of an Islamic State insurgency that has regained its balance, spread out across many more areas, and reclaimed significant tactical proficiency.” The authors write that “now operating at the same levels it achieved in 2012, a number of factors suggest that the Islamic State could further ramp up its rural insurgency in 2020 and 2021. An input of experienced cadres from Syria, a downturn in Iraqi and coalition effectiveness, and now the disruption of a combined COVID and economic crisis will likely all feed into an escalating campaign of attrition against the Iraqi state, military, and tribes.” May 2020 marks the third anniversary of the suicide bombing attack at the Manchester Arena in the United Kingdom. Two brothers from Manchester of Libyan descent, Salman and Hashem Abedi, were responsible for the attack. Following the conviction of Hashem Abedi in a trial that concluded two months ago in the United Kingdom, Eran Benedek and Neil Simon outline what is now known about the genesis of the attack, the brothers’ web of connections in a British-Libyan jihadi nexus, and their links to Islamic State extremists. Finally, Nakissa Jahanbani provides a high-level analysis of attack trends from 2008 to 2019 of Iranian proxies in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa using several open-source datasets.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Jihad, Proxy War, and Aviation
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, United Kingdom, South Asia, Middle East, and Libya

18. October 2020 Issue

Author:
Michael Knights, Stephen Hummel, Paul Cruickshank, Don Rassler, Tim Lister, Pete Erickson, Seth Loertscher, David C. Lane, and Paul Erickson
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Michael Knights assesses the future of Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH) and Iran’s other proxies in Iraq. He notes that in the wake of the death of KH’s founder and leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in a U.S. airstrike on January 3, 2020, “KH is still the engine room of anti-U.S. attacks in Iraq but it is less politically agile and operates in a more hostile counterterrorism environment where deniability and secrecy have become more important again.” He assesses that the “the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force is also leaning on a more diversified model in Iraq, drawing on non-KH factions like Saraya al-Jihad and Saraya al-Ashura, and engaging more directly with Iraq’s minorities, including Sunni communities and the Shi`a Kurdish Faylis and Turkmen. History may be repeating itself as Iran develops new smaller and more secure Iraqi cells that are reminiscent of the formation of Kata’ib Hezbollah itself.” Our interview is with Drew Endy, Associate Chair, Bioengineering, Stanford University, who has served on the U.S. National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity. He argues the United States urgently needs a bio strategy to take advantage of rapid advances in biotechnology, protect against the growing danger posed by its potential malevolent use, and prevent the United States from permanently falling behind as a biopower. “First, we need to demonstrate operational mastery of cells by learning to build them. Second and third, we need to build and secure the bio net. And we have to do this now, within the decade, so that we can translate these advances as infrastructure undergirding a uniquely American bio economy that projects power while advancing life, liberty, pursuit of happiness. If we do this, then we have a chance of taking infectious disease off the table. If we don’t develop and implement a coherent bio strategy, it’s game over, not to be dramatic.” In early August 2020, fighters loyal to the Islamic State captured the town and port of Mocimboa da Praia in Mozambique’s northernmost province of Cabo Delgado. They have yet to be dislodged from the town. Tim Lister examines a jihadi insurgency in Mozambique that has grown in sophistication and reach. This month marks 20 years since al-Qa`ida’s attack on the USS Cole, which killed 17 American sailors. Lieutenant Colonel Pete Erickson, Seth Loertscher, First Lieutenant David C. Lane, and Captain Paul Erickson assess the search for justice.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Hezbollah, Justice, Jihad, Proxy War, and USS Cole
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Mozambique

19. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 12 Issue 02: Geopolitics and Jihadism in a Post-Soleimani Era

Author:
James M Dorsey, Raffaello Pantucci, Bilveer Singh, and Noor Huda Ismail
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The high-profile assassination of General Qassim Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force (QF), on January 3 in Baghdad marked the lowest point in US-Iran relations in recent times. It triggered a new spell of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with far-reaching consequences for South and Southeast Asia. Soleimani’s killing has also coincided with the potential rejuvenation of the Islamic State (IS), and ongoing anti-government protests in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon. Soleimani’s killing was bound to have reverberations beyond the Middle East. Muslim-majority states in South and Southeast Asia, where both Saudi Arabia and Iran have engaged in sectarian proxy wars by funding and influencing the Sunni and Shia segments of the population. While states in both regions have condemned Soleimani’s killing, they have stayed largely neutral to avoid getting sucked into rising geopolitical tensions. Against this backdrop, the March issue of the Counter Terrorists Trends and Analyses (CTTA) features three articles that explore different dimensions of Soleimani’s death and their geopolitical implications. In the first article, James M. Dorsey argues that as US-Iran tensions have eased in recent months, Iranian hardliners, emboldened by a sweeping mandate earned in recent domestic elections, remain committed to a well-honed strategy of escalating asymmetric warfare. According to the author, this raises the prospects for a full-scale war, with the United States also still pursuing a maximum pressure campaign on Iran that has to date, yet to produce tangible results. In the second article, Raffaello Pantucci reasons that despite a general consensus that the US-Iran rupture will ease pressure on transnational jihadist groups in the Middle East theatre, it remains unclear how Soleimani’s killing will shape their future behaviour. On the one hand, Iran-backed Shia militias are likely to step up their operations, which will exacerbate sectarian fault-lines in the region and feed into IS’ self-portrayal as the saviours of Sunnis. Conversely, pragmatism continues to define interactions between Tehran and Sunni jihadist groups such as the Islamic State and Al Qaeda, who appear happy to cooperate to ensure broader strategic goals. Next, Bilveer Singh examines the implications of Soleimani’s assassination for South and Southeast Asia. regions where both Iran and Saudi Arabia enjoy ideological influence among the Muslim-majority states. Sunni Malaysia and Indonesia have reservations about Tehran, but domestic political pressures are likely to endear Iran to them more than the US. The impact in South Asia could be more varied, mostly affecting Afghanistan and Pakistan. Iran through its Shia militant proxies can undermine US interests in Afghanistan. The QF has also recruited significant Shia militias in Afghanistan and Pakistan respectively for operations in Syria. Moreover, Pakistan has to walk a tight rope given Iran has an inside track to its significant Shia population. Besides cross and intra-regional assessments of Soleimani’s assassination within the broader US-Iran fissures, the threat landscapes in Indonesia and West Africa, both long-time hotbeds for terrorist activity in their respective regions, are also examined in this issue. Firstly, Noor Huda Ismail takes a closer look at pro-IS terrorist networks in Indonesia, a country that is home to the world’s largest Muslim population. By examining the background, tactics and modus operandi of local terrorist groups, both online and offline, and comparing their legacy with those of previous militant Islamist movements, the author believes important learning lessons can be drawn to help mitigate future security threats. Finally, Atta Barkindo analyses the jihadist threat in the Sahel region, where a landscape conducive to terrorist activities provides the fertile ground for IS and Al-Qaeda to grow by linking up with local militant networks. The tactical sophistication exhibited in terrorist attacks by Sahelian jihadist groups, particularly in Nigeria and the Lake Chad region, testifies to a growing footprint of global jihadism. Sahel provides an arterial life-line through the region, by facilitating the movement of goods and people between the Mediterranean and West Africa, which has been enormously beneficial to terrorist groups involved in organised criminal enterprises. Moreover, desertification and environmental degradation have also created a conducive environment for criminal activities and terrorism.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

20. Federal Iraq and Unitary Afghanistan: A comparative analysis of plural societies

Author:
Dayyab Gillani
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the ongoing democratization process in Iraq and Afghanistan. It examines the political institutions established in both countries by using the comparative method of analysis. The paper shows that both Iraq and Afghanistan are primarily plural societies and are divided along sectarian and ethnic lines. Drawing from the academic literature, the paper proposes that consociational democracy is the best democratic alternative for plural/divided societies. The paper mainly argues that even though Iraq and Afghanistan share somewhat similar demographic characteristics, their newly installed democratic institutions reveal a sharp contrast. It investigates the reasons for this dissimilar choice of political institutions and proposes that the democratic institutions in both the countries must be formulated in line with the principles of consociational democracy.
Topic:
Democratization, Democracy, Constitution, and Pluralism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Middle East