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Begin New Search Topic Governance Political Geography Africa Content Type Journal Article Journal Conflict Trends Publication Year within 10 Years Publication Year within 3 Years

1. Military Coups in Africa: A Continuation of Politics by Other Means?

Author:
Nana Amoateng
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The military has been an important institution for protecting States from external threats since antiquity. In fulfilling this fundamental role, military institutions have also posed security risks to their own governments, given that the ‘ability to use coercive force, though necessary to defend the nation against threats, creates the danger that the military will turn its weapons on the very regime that empowered its existence’.[1] Military personnel can fuel civil conflicts and undermine the stability of political regimes mostly in States with loose political control of the military. As Douglass North, John Wallis and Barry Weingast have argued, ‘Societies experiencing a civil war, by definition, do not have consolidated control of the military’.[2] In Africa, military institutions have, on one hand, helped to protect States from both internal and external threats, including local insurgencies. On the other hand, they have destabilised several political regimes through coup d’états. Military coups – ‘when the military, or a section of the military, turns its coercive power against the apex of the state, establishes itself there, and the rest of the state takes its orders from the new regime’[3] – have been relatively common in post-independent African States,[4] thereby raising several issues, including how to understand the relationship between politics and military coups. This article contributes to the discussion by highlighting how coups are a continuation of politics by other means, particularly in West Africa.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Leadership, Coup, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa

2. From Terrorism to Banditry: Mass Abductions of Schoolchildren in Nigeria

Author:
Freedom C. Onuoha and Joseph Chukwunonso Akogwu
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Kidnapping in Nigeria is not a new phenomenon but has assumed an alarming dimension in recent times. Acts of kidnapping are increasingly perpetrated by different criminal elements, such as militias, gangs, ritualists, and terrorists, among others, for a variety of reasons. However, the increased frequency, geographical spread, and operational sophistication of kidnapping for ransom (K4R) is a major source of concern for individuals, organisations, the diplomatic community, and, indeed, the Nigerian Government. Much of the concern is about the safety of the victims as well as the cost of this expanding criminal enterprise. For instance, Nigeria’s main geopolitical intelligence platform, SBM Intelligence, estimated that between 2011 and 2020, Nigerians paid at least US$18.34 million (₦7 billion) in ransoms to kidnappers.[1] In the first half of 2021, 2 371 people were kidnapped and the sum of about US$23.84 million (N10 billion) was demanded in ransoms in Nigeria.[2] The targets are as diverse as the actors who benefit from and the factors that underpin the upsurge in K4R. Expatriates, businesspeople, schoolchildren, women, politicians, government officials, diplomats, and traditional rulers, among others, are increasingly being targeted by criminal gangs.[3] The wanton predation on schoolchildren through mass abduction by armed groups that are ideologically or economically motivated is the latest worrisome trend in the pattern of criminal victimisation in Nigeria. This article examines the trajectory of the mass abduction of schoolchildren in northern Nigeria, highlighting the drivers of mass abduction and evaluating emerging responses by the government.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Governance, Leadership, Peace, and Abductions
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

3. A New Coup Era for Africa?

Author:
Jonathan Powell, Abigail Reynolds, and Mwita Chacha
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
It was not long ago that the decline of coups was being celebrated, not just in Africa, but globally. New African magazine asked in Fall 2015 why coups are going out of style.[1] Writing in September 2017, Schiel and her co-authors pointed to a two-year period since the last attempted coup in Africa, with the continent approaching three full years since the last successful attempt.[2] A month later, former Malian Foreign Minister Kamisssa Camara – even in the context of herself serving shortly after a coup –suggested that ‘the time for coups is over’.[3] Though perhaps not a long period at first glance, this was the longest coup-less stretch in Africa since decolonisation. Various efforts have been made to explain this shift, including the institutionalisation of more open political systems and the role of external actors such as the African Union (AU).[4] Though the November 2017 coup against Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe was a new coup, coups remained something of an afterthought in subsequent years. More recently, commentary at the Council on Foreign Relations concluded that ‘old style’ coups in which soldiers attempted to seize power had been supplanted by incumbents scheming to maintain it.[5] This has changed since August 2020, with successful coups taking place in Chad, Guinea, and twice in Mali as well as a failed effort to seize power in Niger, and both a failed and successful coup in Sudan. This apparent resurgence in the phenomenon has prompted much discussion on the causes of these events, whether they are related, and what – if anything – the region can do to buck the trend. Independent African states have experienced over 200 coup attempts since 1950, of which over 100 have succeeded (see Figure 1).[6]
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Coup, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa

4. Political Reforms and Implications for Democracy and Instability in West Africa: The Way Forward for ECOWAS and Member States

Author:
Mubin Adewumi Bakare
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
With the restoration of democratic order in the Gambia in 2017, the West African region regained the attention of the world with renewed hope and optimism for democratic consolidation in Africa. The Economic Community of West African States’ (ECOWAS) rejection of the undemocratic retention of power by former President Yahya Jammeh and its threat to apply force, coupled with Gambians’ resistance, resulted in the restoration of democratic order in the country. Similarly, ECOWAS’ preventive diplomacy efforts following the recent military incursion in 2021 affirmed the regional body’s zero-tolerance stance for power acquired through unconstitutional means. The practice of accessing political power through credible elections under the watch of civil society and international actors is progressively taking firm root across the region. However, despite these democratic gains, the region is also witnessing setbacks in emerging political developments across Member States. According to the Freedom House ‘Freedom in the World Report 2021’, of the 12 countries with the most significant decline in democracy year-on-year, five are in West Africa.[1] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index (2020) showed that only Ghana and Cabo Verde still qualify as fully-fledged democracies in the region.[2] Recently, the region has also witnessed a resurgence in military interregna in Mali and Guinea. This democracy backsliding portends political instability, and its attendant economic consequences for the ECOWAS is concerning considering the developmental agenda of the region. Central to this negative democratic trend are concerns around political reforms that have undermined electoral integrity, inclusiveness and legitimacy in Member States. The application of some of these reforms has fuelled crises, which have led to the resurgence of coups d’état and threatened stability, peace and security in the region.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Reform, Democracy, Instability, Peacebuilding, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

5. Self-defence Militias and State Sponsorship in Burkina Faso

Author:
Viljar Haavik
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Burkina Faso has been engulfed in an ongoing conflict with jihadist insurgent groups active across the Sahel in West Africa. The conflict originally started in Mali in 2012 and later spread to Niger. In June 2021, the worst attack in Burkina Faso since 2015 occurred in the village of Solhan, where suspected jihadists massacred 160 civilians.[1]Naturally, discussions in the media revolved around who perpetrated the attack, but the attack also brought to the forefront the role of self-defence groups or militias in the Burkina Faso conflict. While the use of armed militias in Burkina Faso has become widespread and is actively sponsored by the State, there are concerns that self-defence militias perpetuate conflict. The main reasons are that self-defence militias in Burkina Faso are exacerbating mutual distrust, tension and violence among different communities, while the use and State sponsorship of militias are exposing the civilian population to reprisals from the insurgents who perceive them as a threat. The result is that President Roch Marc Kaboré may be doing more harm than good by creating self-defence militias under the legal framework of the Volunteers for the Defence of the Homeland (VDPs) adopted unanimously by Burkina Faso’s Parliament in January 2020.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Violence, Militias, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa and Burkina Faso

6. The July 2021 Protests and Socio-political Unrest in South Africa

Author:
Clayton Hazvinei Vhumbunu
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
During the period 9 to 17 July 2021, South Africa experienced violent protests and socio-political unrest characterised by widespread looting of shops and businesses, as well as burning and destruction of public facilities and private properties, mostly in the provinces of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng. The socio-political unrest and violence were largely sparked by initial low-intensity and sporadic protests in parts of KZN against the arrest and imprisonment of former President Jacob Zuma. The Constitutional Court of South Africa sentenced the former president to 15 months imprisonment for defying its order to comply with the summons to appear before the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into Allegations of State Capture, Corruption and Fraud in the Public Sector including Organs of State, and for undermining the authority of the Court through his casual and scandalous attacks. There has been wide-ranging debate across the country on whether the ‘Free Zuma’ protests, looting and socio-political unrest was caused by the imprisonment of Zuma or not. However, what stands out is not only the undeniable fact that the developments resulted in colossal socio-economic damage countrywide at a time when the Covid-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc on national economic growth and people’s lives and livelihoods, but also the valuable lessons for sustainable future prevention, management and resolution of conflict, violence and socio-political unrest in South Africa. This article deepens the analysis into the causes and consequences of the Free Zuma socio-political unrest while reflecting on the possible valuable lessons that can be drawn from the events to avoid the recurrence of such and to manage and resolve similar conflicts in the future sustainably.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Protests, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

7. Conflict Dynamics in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado Province

Author:
Theo Neethling
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The ongoing militant insurgency and conflict in the upper north-eastern Cabo Delgado province in Mozambique has been brewing since 2017. However, it only gained the attention of the international community in mid-August 2020 when the Islamist extremist movement, Al Sunnah wa Jama’ah (or Ansar al-Sunna), captured the port town of Mocimboa da Praia in the north-eastern part of the country. This was not the first capturing of the town, as the insurgents – many of whom reportedly are originally from Mocimboa da Praia – earlier also briefly took control of the town in March 2020. At the same time, the town of Quissanga, approximately 180 km further south, then became the most targeted area in 2020, although the insurgents focused attacks on several other towns and districts. The insurgents further specifically targeted military and police forces, while the population in Cabo Delgado experienced horrific brutality in the form of killings, including beheadings, and other forms of violence that led to internal displacements and food shortages in the affected areas.[1] What followed were harsh security responses from the Forças Armadas de Defesa de Moçambique (Mozambican Defence and Security Forces) (FDS),[2] similar to indiscriminate responses elsewhere in conflict zones in Somalia, the Lake Chad Basin, the Sahel, and the Maghreb. The escalating attacks and heavy-handed responses have only heightened distrust among local residents and are alleged to have enhanced recruitment by the insurgents.[3] Currently, Cabo Delgado province is caught up in a security challenge with national, regional and international implications. The situation not only endangers the lives of tens of thousands of Mozambicans, but is also destabilising the upper north-eastern parts of Mozambique and certainly poses a threat to foreign direct investment pertaining to large-scale infrastructure, mining, exploration (especially natural gas), and other projects in Mozambique and the region.[4]
Topic:
Security, Insurgency, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique