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1. Reflections on WTO Reform: Lecture series by Ignacio Garcia Bercero

Author:
Ignacio Garcia Bercero
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This special edition of our Expert Analysis presents four lectures (edited for publication) on World Trade Organization reform delivered by the author at LSE IDEAS during June-November 2022 and concluding in May 2023. The paper ends on a postscript reflecting on the perspectives on the different issues discussed in the lectures following the outcome of the 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO in February-March 2024, as well as the November 2024 re-election of Donald Trump—on the basis of a disruptive trade policy agenda.
Topic:
Reform, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and WTO
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Assad’s Fall Is an Opportunity for a U.S. Win Over China

Author:
Grant Rumley
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Beijing consistently supported the regime’s brutal repressive measures, so cozying up to the rebel-led transition government may be more difficult than it expects. In the months since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023, China has seized on the conflict to criticize not only Israel but by extension the U.S. and its position in the region. For years, Chinese diplomats had been careful to toe a centrist line in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calibrating their language to avoid offending either side too greatly. Yet as the conflict has dragged on the past year, and as the region’s criticisms of the U.S. have risen, Beijing sensed an opportunity to diminish the U.S. standing while boosting its own. Chinese officials have regularly omitted mention of Hamas’s atrocities while blasting Israel and the U.S. for its support. Now, however, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has presented the U.S. with a similar opportunity...
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, Bashar al-Assad, 2023 Gaza War, and Transitional Government
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

3. In Syria, America Should Be Ruthlessly Focused on the Islamic State

Author:
Joseph Votel and Elizabeth Dent
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With the U.S. military presence on a potentially short timetable, officials should prioritize policies that ensure the continued security of Islamic State detention facilities, such as brokering local ceasefire agreements and alleviating Turkish concerns. Five years ago, we warned that a snap decision to depart Syria would be a devastating setback and damage American credibility. A few weeks later, amongst a U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion into areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, we argued the United States would need to maintain the ability to fight remnants of the Islamic State and ensure the fighters in detention remain there. Washington ceded much of its negotiating power in the country to Moscow and Ankara, only to reverse course a few months later and keep a small allotment of troops in northeast Syria to prevent a power vacuum and a run on Syrian oil and gas infrastructure. Today, the United States and its Kurdish-led partners face a nearly identical set of challenges, but in a massively changed balance of power in Syria. And despite political nominees’ reassurances that the United States is unlikely to abandon its partners there, Trump himself has been more ambivalent...
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islamic State, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

4. PMF Non-Deployment to Save Assad: Sudani’s View Contradicted by Iran

Author:
Hamdi Malik
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Iraqi prime minister portrayed Baghdad's non-intervention in Syria as a sovereign decision, but Iranian leaders gave a different explanation. Iranian and Iraqi narratives surrounding recent events in Syria reveal clear contradictions, particularly regarding the role of Iraqi muqawama (resistance) militias in efforts to preserve Bashar al-Assad’s regime. High-ranking Iranian officials offered accounts that challenged Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s portrayal of events, asserting that external threats rather than Sudani’s leadership ultimately limited the extent of Iraq’s involvement.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

5. Gaza Ceasefire: Implications for Israel, Hamas, and U.S. Policy

Author:
Dennis Ross, Matthew Levitt, and Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Former Israeli and U.S. officials discuss the deal’s timing, provisions, and near-term prospects, outlining the Trump administration’s practical options for advancing peace in Gaza and beyond.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

6. The US TikTok Ban, the RedNote Moment and China

Author:
Aurelio Insisa
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On 23 April 2024, the US Senate passed a bill forcing the Chinese company ByteDance to choose between divesting from its prized social platform TikTok, one of the dominant apps among Americans aged 18-29,[1] or accepting its ban on US soil. Following ByteDance’s refusal to divest, the US Supreme Court upheld the ban on 17 January 2025. The ban on TikTok rested on national security grounds. TikTok is technically a limited liability corporation registered in Delaware and with headquarters in Singapore and Los Angeles. Yet, its parent company ByteDance, while incorporated in the Cayman Islands, is based in Beijing and subject to a domestic legal framework legally requiring it to “provide assistance” to the Chinese government, including, crucially, giving up the data of TikTok users.[2] Further highlighting the limited autonomy of the company vis-à-vis Chinese authorities, “cells” of the Chinese Communist Party have been embedded within the structures of the company since 2017.[3] In short, ByteDance cannot guarantee that the personal data of its users could be kept at arm’s length from Beijing. While the Senate’s bill enjoyed bipartisan support, then President-elect Donald J. Trump publicly stated that he would not enforce the ban. Throughout the 2024 electoral campaign, Trump had announced – in contrast with most of the Republican Party members of Congress – his opposition to the bill, acknowledging how the platform had been a relevant tool for re-election.[4] On 19 January, Trump announced that he would consider imposing a 90-day delay of the ban and search for a joint-venture between ByteDance and a US company.[5] Two days later, he suggested the possibility that either Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla, owner of X, and Administrator of the Department of Government Efficiency in the new administration), or Larry Ellison (chairman of Oracle) would buy the social media platform.[6]
Topic:
Social Media, Digital Policy, and TikTok
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

7. Trump First, America Second

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In his inaugural address to a nation half-enthusiastic and half-stunned still by the most extraordinary political comeback in US history, Donald Trump portrayed himself as the saviour of the nation, chosen by God Himself to finally turn America First from slogan to reality and truly ‘make America great again’.[1] The mixture of politics, ideology and megalomaniac eschatology is especially interesting because Trump has tied the fate of the nation to his personal fortunes like no other president before him. As he puts it, the realisation of America First is inextricably linked to his personal power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ideology, Far Right, Donald Trump, and Nativism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8. A Tough Opponent for Trump: Inflation

Author:
Matteo Bursi
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
According to several pre-election polls, the economy was perceived by many US voters as the key topic in deciding whether to vote Democratic or Republican in the 2024 presidential elections.[1] During Joe Biden’s administration, the US GDP grew steadily and unemployment reached very low levels. Nevertheless, for the first time since 2004, the Democratic Party lost the presidency, the popular vote, the House of Representatives and the Senate. This seemingly paradoxical situation, according to some commentators, finds an explanation in the issue of inflation.[2] From this perspective, a significant number of Americans reportedly voted for Donald Trump due to the sharp price increases experienced during the past four years, blaming the outgoing Democratic administration for failing to sufficiently protect the purchasing power of US citizens and businesses. During and after the election campaign, the tycoon has claimed that he can curb inflation, emphasising his plan to intensify the exploitation of domestic energy resources. This proposal – covered by one of the many executive orders signed by Trump upon taking office – could help contain price increases but is unlikely to be a definitive solution. Likewise, its effectiveness could be largely offset by inflationary pressures arising from other policies that the Republican politician has promised to implement.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Economic Policy, Inflation, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

9. The New Syria and the Regional Balance of Power

Author:
Amjed Rasheed
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on 8 December 2024 and the subsequent rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now leading the Syrian interim government in the country, have dramatically shaped the regional balance of power. Remarkably, the HTS-led interim government has been making some serious attempts to consolidate its control, and boost legitimacy, but also rebuild Syria after 14 years of civil war and a half-a-century of Assad dynasty rule. In its pursuit to achieve these ends, the interim government has launched diplomatic efforts toward regional and international powerhouses. Everybody, including Russia, is currently welcome to visit Damascus. Yet there is also failure so far to open up the transition to others, which could generate grievances and lead to disruptive regional interference. While the success of such a policy remains to be gauged, the HTS approach to accommodate regional contradiction is worth explaining.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Gulf Nations

10. The Mattei Plan One Year On

Author:
Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On 28-29 January 2024, the Italian Senate hosted the Italy-Africa Summit, bringing together 21 heads of state and government from African countries, along with other representatives of African, European and global organisations. The African representatives were gathered by the announcement that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni would publicly present the Mattei Plan, a project with which the Italian government wants to redesign relations with the continent based on “equal-to-equal” collaboration. A year later, it is possible to take a first stock of announcements, projects and weaknesses that have emerged so far.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Public-Private Partnership, Collaboration, and Mattei Plan
Political Geography:
Africa, Italy, and North America

11. The European Screening Mechanism and Its Implications for Chinese FDI

Author:
Emanuele Ballestracci
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The European Commission has recently proposed a revision of the EU foreign direct investment (FDI) screening mechanism, originally established in 2020. The aim is to further strengthen the EU’s economic security within the framework of its “de-risking” policy, which aims to manage risks coming from the economic and technological engagement with China.[1] The new proposal aims to address major shortcomings in the current screening mechanism, expanding its scope to greenfield investments and European outward FDI. However, this could conflict with the EU’s goal of encouraging Chinese greenfield investment and joint ventures, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

12. Trump’s Call with Putin Raises Great Concerns, Few Hopes

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
US President Donald Trump’s phone call with Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin, especially when read in combination with Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth’s re-definition of US Europe policy, casts a long shadow. There are good reasons to be more concerned than hopeful about the peace deal that seems to be taking shape in the minds of the US Administration. At the same time, there are elements suggesting a less pessimistic assessment of the looming negotiations. Trump’s call with Putin has made a big splash but has not yet pierced Ukraine’s armour.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

13. Another Transatlanticism Is Possible: Europe’s Moment in Latin America amid Trump’s Return

Author:
Raffaele Piras
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited his hallmark “America First” agenda, with significant consequences for Latin America. During his inaugural address, Trump emphasised the need to regain US control of the Panama Canal, framing it as a cornerstone of national security amidst heightened competition with China.[1] This rhetoric marks the continuation of a policy approach that relies on coercion and transactional diplomacy to achieve US objectives. While Trump’s focus on Latin America will undoubtedly reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics, it also presents a strategic opportunity for the European Union to strengthen its role as a stabilising force and reliable partner.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

14. A Three-year War and Four Lessons for Europe

Author:
Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The tragic third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022 witnesses the start of diplomatic talks between Russia and the United States on the possible end of the conflict. Three years of large-scale, high-intensity war of attrition in Europe, with over a million dead or injured soldiers, offers at least four politico-military lessons for European countries, the EU and NATO. Lessons to bear in mind through this negotiation for the future not only of Ukraine but of the security of the whole continent.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Transatlantic Relations, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

15. Giorgia Meloni’s Italy between Trump and Europe: Fateful Choices Ahead

Author:
Maria Luisa Fantappiè, Leo Goretti, and Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The priority should be “preventing divisions within the West and the transatlantic alliance”, while “rooting for” this or that side would not be helpful: it is thus that Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni commented on the spat in the Oval Office between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump,[1] and by extension, between Washington and Europe. In the aftermath of the clash, while most European leaders openly supported Zelensky, Meloni’s reticence was notable. The choice was tough. Siding with Zelensky would jeopardise Meloni’s aspiration to become the go-to EU leader for Washington. And yet, siding with Trump would lay bare a lack of commitment to Europe and especially the defence of Ukraine, for which Meloni had previously shown constant support. At the ensuing London Summit on Ukraine, Meloni couldn’t hide her discomfort.[2] The resolve of European leaders – spearheaded by the French president Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer – in advocating for a strategic Europe seemed to shelve Meloni’s carefully crafted plan to leverage her bilateral ties with the Trump administration to bolster her role in Europe – even at the cost of fragmenting its unity. Meanwhile, at home, her junior coalition partner Matteo Salvini openly sided with Trump, in an attempt to present himself as an alternative to Meloni and to win consensus among that sizable chunk of the Italian public opinion who wants to see an end to the war in Ukraine.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, Russia-Ukraine War, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:
Europe, Italy, and United States of America

16. Trump’s Exit from the Paris Agreement: An Opportunity for the EU to Back South Africa’s Climate Leadership

Author:
Bongiwe Ngcobo-Mphahlele and Darlington Tshuma
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In his address to the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos in January 2025,[1] South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa – who currently chairs the G20, the first African leader to do so – outlined a bold and assertive agenda centred on global cooperation, inclusive growth and sustainable development. His address included a renewed call for transparency in the allocation of climate resources and the reform of the global financial architecture that has long been criticised as too rigid to support long-term sustainable development in the Global South.[2]
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economics, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Europe, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

17. Can France Provide European Allies with Nuclear Deterrence?

Author:
Roberto Zadra
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In his speech to fellow citizens on 5 March, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the opening of a “strategic debate on the protection of our allies on the European continent by our (nuclear) deterrent”.[1] It is not the first time: already in the 1990s then-president François Mitterrand alluded to a vocation européenne of French nuclear deterrence.[2] Macron himself proposed, already in February 2020, the opening of a dialogue on the matter.[3] The initiative was not very successful at the time, essentially because European allies considered the security guarantees provided by the United States to Europe through NATO sufficient, together with the repeated reassurances of NATO communiqués that the British and French nuclear forces “have a deterrent role of their own and contribute significantly to the overall security of the Alliance”.[4] This time, however, the reactions by many European allied countries to the French initiative will probably be different. For a simple reason: excluding the deployment of its own forces to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire and denying security guarantees to Kyiv, the Trump administration fuels the fears of European allies that Washington’s commitment to collective defence is less solid than in the past. Indeed, the Ukraine crisis has shown the limitations of the traditional NATO distinction between Article 5 and non-Article 5 – that is, between those who are members of NATO and therefore protected by collective defence, and those who are not because collective defence is not valid for NATO partners – as it has laid bare how crisis management and cooperative security are having a direct impact on (the perceived lack of US commitment to) collective defence in Europe.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and France

18. NATO-Europe-US Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific: Challenging Times Ahead

Author:
Gabriele Abbondanza
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As the Indo-Pacific gradually becomes the world’s geopolitical and geoeconomic epicentre, states and regional organisations are progressively pivoting to it. Due to a combination of drivers – chiefly US pressure, economic opportunities, strategic interests and politico-normative priorities – European and Indo-Pacific actors have increased cooperation with Washington and NATO in the region. However, the second Trump administration looks considerably less aligned with the conventional pillars of US foreign policy. In light of the unfolding fracture between the US and its European allies over Ukraine, what lies ahead for NATO-Europe-US cooperation in the Indo-Pacific?
Topic:
NATO, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

19. Simul in the Middle East: Regional Strategic Ramifications of Israel and Hezbollah’s War

Author:
Boushra Jaber
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This report aims to explore the background of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict and the context surrounding their most recent war. It argues that the causes and consequences of this war have both domestic and broader regional and international dimensions. The report underlines the significant ramifications of this war by analysing the origins, progression, and outcomes of the conflict at both domestic and regional levels, as well as its international resonance. Additionally, it presents policy recommendations to address these challenges, particularly in Lebanon, focusing on containing Hezbollah and strengthening state governance. Eventually, the report highlights two main findings: first, the conflict underscores the profound geopolitical interconnections within the Middle East, illustrating how instability in one nation can create a ripple effect throughout the region, ultimately impacting its overall stability. Second, it stresses the urgent need for carefully considered and well-informed policies to navigate the complexities and interdependencies inherent in the region.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon

20. Collateral Effects of the Tariff War on ASEAN Food Security

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Kayven Tan
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The United States and China are locked in a cycle of escalating tariffs, with likely knock-on impacts on global food supplies and prices. In response to increases in tariff rates imposed by the US on China’s exports, China hit back with additional tariffs on US$21 billion worth of US agricultural products in March 2025. Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs will mean an additional 10 per cent tariff on soybeans, sorghum, beef, pork, aquatic and dairy products, fruits, and vegetables, and an additional 15 per cent tariff on wheat, corn, maize, and chicken from the US. Given the tense words exchanged by leaders and officials on both sides in recent days, neither side appears ready to back down from these trade measures. The food security concern for ASEAN states is whether the trade war will impact the supply and prices of food in a region where 37 per cent, or 251 million people, cannot afford a healthy diet. Many Asian states rely heavily on imports for their food. Wheat is used in household staples such as noodles and bread, while corn and soybeans are used for food and livestock feed.
Topic:
Food Security, Tariffs, Trade Wars, ASEAN, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

21. Managing Global Biological Risks: Towards a Security-Health Coordination Framework

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Jeselyn, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The task of securing the world against biological risks is complicated by enforcement and information challenges. A security-health coordination framework is crucial for securing cooperation among a diverse set of actors with different but converging mandates.
Topic:
Security, Biosecurity, Crisis Management, Risk, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. Protecting Food Security in the Face of Tariffs and Trade Wars

Author:
Paul Teng
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The uncertainty caused by tariffs and trade disputes affects food security. Increases in geopolitical tensions will undermine the best plans to maintain global supply chains, encouraging countries to develop alternative ones. Consumers in Southeast Asia, even though far from the geographic areas of dispute, will ultimately suffer from interruptions in food availability and price hikes. National strategies to ensure food security are needed.
Topic:
Food Security, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

23. Biosecurity Awareness and Education in Southeast Asia

Author:
Julius Caesar Trajano and Jeselyn
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
ASEAN leaders recognise the critical importance of biosecurity. But there is a need to enhance the security culture and biosecurity awareness among life science, medical, and biotechnology professionals to mitigate the misuse of biological materials.
Topic:
Security, Education, Biosecurity, and Biotechnology
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

24. California Wildfires and Planetary Health

Author:
Pey Peili
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The California wildfires are an environmental disaster, but they also point to a deeper set of challenges, not only for the United States of America but for the global community. Such wildfires, which are ever-increasing in frequency and scale due to the impact of climate change, result in structural damage and long-term health risks that disproportionately affect vulnerable communities and are a costly burden to the state. A planetary health approach highlights the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the climate-environment-health interface in managing the risk and incidence of wildfires.
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, Natural Disasters, and Wildfires
Political Geography:
California, North America, and United States of America

25. To Vote or Not to Vote: Venezuelans Face Another Election Choice

Author:
Catherine Ellis
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In the shadow of a contested presidential vote, Venezuela’s upcoming regional elections reveal more about power struggles than democratic representation.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Representation, and Voting
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

26. Indigenous Women Survivors of Guatemala’s Rape Camps Seek Justice

Author:
Jo-Marie Burt, Paulo Estrada, and Eduardo Colindres
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Forty years after surviving state violence, Maya Achi women return to court to demand justice, challenging a long legacy of impunity for crimes against humanity.
Topic:
Rape, Sexual Violence, Accountability, Justice, and Crimes Against Humanity
Political Geography:
Central America and Guatemala

27. The Modern Surveillance State: Mexico and the CIA during the Cold War

Author:
Claire Dorfman
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Newly declassified CIA documents reveal the links between Mexico’s contemporary surveillance state and a uniquely close Cold War collaboration with U.S. intelligence agencies.
Topic:
Cold War, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

28. The Reinvention of the Strike: 10 Years of Feminist Uprising in Argentina

Author:
Verónica Gago and Linas Kojala
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
This year marks the 10-year anniversary of the Ni Una Menos movement. Understanding the tensions that mark these moments of intense rearrangements and changes in increasingly militarized capitalism is urgent.
Topic:
Capitalism, Protests, and Labor Strike
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

29. Debates over TPS for Venezuelans Reveal Diasporic Divide

Author:
Francisco Llinas Casas and Erick Moreno Superlano
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The battle over Temporary Protected Status provides a window into the class, racial, and political divisions within the Venezuelan diaspora in the United States.
Topic:
Politics, Race, Diaspora, Class, Immigration Policy, and Temporary Protection Status (TPS)
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

30. Honduran Farmers Continue Their Fight for Land and Justice

Author:
Jaime Jacques
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
After the murder of their leader, communities in the Aguán Valley have continued their fight against corruption, impunity, and the pollution of their lands.
Topic:
Justice, Land Rights, Pollution, and Activism
Political Geography:
Central America and Honduras

31. Cuerpx en Vela: Travesti Performance Against the Necro-State

Author:
Malú Machuca Rose
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Artist Germa Machuca uses her body as an altar and guiding light to illuminate the connections across anti-trans and anti-Indigenous violence in Peru.
Topic:
Arts, Violence, Indigenous, Transgender, and Travesti
Political Geography:
South America and Peru

32. At the Thresholds: Labor Organizing as Travesti-Trans Formal Workers in Argentina

Author:
Francisco Fernández Romero, Pato Laterra, and Victor Sánchez
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Travesti and trans workers in the formal sector expand imaginaries about the relationship between LGTBQ+ people and work, contributing to broader labor struggles for all of society.
Topic:
Labor Issues, LGBT+, Transgender, and Organizing
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

33. For Trans Men in Colombia, All Cops Are Bastards

Author:
Nikita Dupuis-Vargas Latorre
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Violence against trans men by state forces is widespread—and little studied. The profiling inherent to mandatory military service only aggravates the problem.
Topic:
Violence, LGBT+, Police, Transgender, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

34. Transfeminist Struggles Against Debt and Dispossession

Author:
Lucía Cavallero
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In Argentina, sexual dissidents mobilize transversal alliances to denounce indebtedness as a tool of capitalist displacement and violence.
Topic:
Debt, Capitalism, Displacement, Feminism, Violence, and Transgender
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

35. Community Forestry Addresses Environmental Destruction in Mexico

Author:
Linda Farthing
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Community-based governance structures put decision-making about Ixlán de Juarez’s forests into local hands, creating economic opportunity and reversing centuries of deforestation in the town.
Topic:
Environment, Governance, Deforestation, Forestry, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

36. Neofascist March Calls for the Expulsion of Haitians in Punta Cana

Author:
Simón Rodríguez
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
A recent violent and destructive march calling for the expulsion of Haitians in Punta Cana demonstrates the vehement anti-Haitianism and rising fascism prevalent in the Dominican Republic.
Topic:
Economics, Far Right, Migrant Workers, and Neofascism
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, Haiti, and Dominican Republic

37. El Salvador, No Place for Asylum Seekers

Author:
Laura Blume, Stephanie Sosa, and Andrea García Rodríguez
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Deported from the United States without due process, asylum seekers now face political persecution and deadly conditions in El Salvador’s mega-prisons as the Trump administration outsources cruelty to the Bukele regime.
Topic:
Prisons/Penal Systems, Donald Trump, Deportation, Due Process, Nayib Bukele, and Asylum Seekers
Political Geography:
Central America, El Salvador, and United States of America

38. Colombia's Just Energy Transition

Author:
Patricia Rodríguez
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
President Gustavo Petro is leading the way in promoting a fossil fuel phase-out in South America and beyond, but there are challenges and contradictions in Colombia’s actions at home.
Topic:
Climate Change, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

39. Tren de Aragua: A Gang, Not Terrorist Invaders

Author:
Elliott Young
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act to target Venezuelan migrants relies on a false narrative about Tren de Aragua and the Venezuelan state, and sets a dangerous precedent for immigrant rights.
Topic:
Immigration, Deportation, Gangs, and Tren de Aragua
Political Geography:
South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

40. Ecuador Enters "Trump Mode" with Noboa Victory

Author:
Ociel Alí López
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Authoritarian drift and political blackmail shape the runoff election in Ecuador, where incumbent President Daniel Noboa won Sunday’s vote.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Domestic Politics, Democratic Backsliding, and Daniel Noboa
Political Geography:
Central America and Ecuador

41. The Life of a Trans Mexican Revolutionary, in Drag

Author:
Olivia Ferrari
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Drag performers mine the story of the revolutionary hero and trans icon Amelio Robles to better understand the past and shape the future.
Topic:
History, Transgender, Amelio Robles, Drag, and Mexican Revolution
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

42. Can Democracy Stop Extractivism and Authoritarianism?

Author:
Paula Sevilla Núñez
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Ecuador’s electorate will go to a runoff vote in April in a highly polarized climate. At stake is a broader political struggle between authoritarianism and democracy.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Extractivism
Political Geography:
Central America and Ecuador

43. Despite Regional Opposition, a Canadian Company Pursues Mining in Santander

Author:
Lital Khaikin
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In the face of rifts over securitization issues and calls for conservation, Aris Mining intends to launch the Soto Norte mine in Santander, Colombia, in 2029.
Topic:
Environment, Mining, Conservation, and Securitization
Political Geography:
Canada, Colombia, and South America

44. In a Polarized Political Climate, Ecuador Heads to a Presidential Runoff

Author:
Marc Becker
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Ecuador held its general election on February 9. Defying the polls, Ecuadorians will be heading to a runoff race in April to choose its next president.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Central America and Ecuador

45. In the Face of Violence, Catatumbo’s Communities Call for Solidarity

Author:
Priscyll Anctil Avoine and Adriana Pérez-Rodríguez
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Failed peace negotiations and the battle for control over valuable territory have produced an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe.
Topic:
Solidarity, Negotiation, Humanitarian Crisis, and FARC
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Catatumbo

46. A Proposal for Plurinational Popular Power Woven from Below

Author:
Malvika Gupta
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Leonidas Iza, Ecuador’s presidential candidate with the Indigenous-aligned Pachakutik political movement, outlines his vision for governing a Plurinational State.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Domestic Politics, Indigenous, and Plurinationalism
Political Geography:
Central America and Ecuador

47. Panama Canal Takeover: An Old Ghost in a Curious Present

Author:
Francisco Javier Bonilla
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Trump's threat to take back the Panama Canal signals a new era of U.S. expansionism and the greatest attack on Central American sovereignty since the 1990s.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Donald Trump, Panama Canal, and Expansionism
Political Geography:
Central America and Panama

48. The Forgotten Victims: Orphans of Femicide in Colombia

Author:
Anna Abraham, Tony Kirby, and David García
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In the face of the femicide crisis in Colombia, a second crisis persists: hundreds of children are left orphaned each year and without support from the state.
Topic:
Crime, Children, Gender Based Violence, Femicide, and Orphans
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

49. Trump and the Threat of Domestic Militarization

Author:
Dawn Paley and Ojalá
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Mexico's experience with the militarization of prohibition and migration is defined by violence and displacement.
Topic:
Migration, Displacement, Violence, Donald Trump, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

50. The Disappearance of a Mapuche Elder is an Indictment of Chile’s “Progressive” Government

Author:
Carole Concha Bell
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Activists link the disappearance of land defender Julia Chuñil to the state’s militarization of the region and its deep ties to rapacious forestry companies.
Topic:
Disappearance, Land Rights, Indigenous, Deforestation, and Mapuche
Political Geography:
South America and Chile

51. Forensic Crisis Reveals Institutional Responsibility in Mexico City’s Disappearance Crisis

Author:
Eliana Gilet, Madeleine Wattenbarger, and Gleider I. Hernández
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In Mexico City, families of the disappeared mobilize for justice for their loved ones and the accountability of forensic authorities.
Topic:
Crime, Accountability, Police, Disappearance, Activism, and Forensics
Political Geography:
Latin America, Mexico, and Mexico City

52. Mass Grave in Medellín Tourist Hotspot Sparks War of Words—and Walls 

Author:
Joshua Collins
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The discovery in historic neighborhood Comuna 13, a neighborhood known for its art as much as its dark past, has reignited the debate over paramilitarism in the country.
Topic:
Arts, Tourism, Memory, Paramilitary, and Mass Grave
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Medellín

53. This Spanglish Bookstore In New York Is Reclaiming Bushwick's Sense Of Latinidad

Author:
Victoria Mortimer
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Mil Mundos began as a means for María Herrón to reclaim her identity. Now, this bookstore’s founder is building a community among Latines in Brooklyn, New York.
Topic:
Community, Identity, and Spanglish
Political Geography:
New York, North America, and United States of America

54. A New Mall for the Village: How Carbon Credits Impact Indigenous People in Guyana

Author:
Clarissa Levy and Agência Pública
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In 2022, Guyana became the first country in the world to issue carbon credits on a national scale. Indigenous people say they were excluded from the negotiations and criticize the loss of autonomy in their territories.
Topic:
Negotiation, Indigenous, Autonomy, Carbon Emissions, and Carbon Credits
Political Geography:
South America and Guyana

55. The U.S. Is Helping Brazilian Police Kill

Author:
Joseph Bouchard
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Brazil’s highly militarized policing disproportionately impacts poor and racialized communities. By providing funding and training, the United States has helped exacerbate the crisis.
Topic:
Training, Police, Militarization, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

56. Explosive Report and Exposé on Colombia’s Magdalena Medio Oil Industry

Author:
Yago Rodríguez
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
After a two-year investigation, a comprehensive report, BBC documentary, and whistleblower dossier reveal alleged widespread contamination, health impacts, and surveillance by Colombia’s state-owned Ecopetrol.
Topic:
Oil, Surveillance, Journalism, Investigations, State-Owned Enterprises, and Contamination
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

57. Buscadoras in Mexico Under Threat After Grisly Discovery

Author:
Joshua Collins and Daniela Diaz Rangel
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
News of a mass grave found by civilian search collectives has reopened an old debate about a lack of political will on the part of authorities to investigate violent crime.
Topic:
Crime, Accountability, Police, and Mass Grave
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

58. "Memory Moves Us": Argentines Take to the Streets for 24M

Author:
Virginia Tognola
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In the face of Javier Milei’s deepening attack on civil rights, massive mobilizations in Argentina honor the victims of state terrorism on the Day of Remembrance for Truth and Justice.
Topic:
Protests, Memory, Civil Rights, Truth and Reconciliation, and Javier Milei
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

59. Destierro y Desmar: Embroidering Experiences of Internal Migration and Forced Displacement

Author:
Morgan Londoño Marín
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
For transmasculine activists uprooted from the lands and waters they called home, embroidery and poetry become practices for expressing nostalgia and building community in Bogotá.
Topic:
Arts, LGBT+, Community, Transgender, Forced Displacement, and Embroidery
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

60. Cuerpos Furiosos: Travesti-Trans Politics for Counterrevolutionary Times

Author:
Cole Rizki
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The Spring 2025 issue of the NACLA Report explores travesti-trans politics across the Americas, an antifascist and transversal politics with the power to reshape our world.
Topic:
Politics, Transgender, Antifascism, and Travesti
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Central America

61. Afro-Feminist Poetics and Trans Life in Cuba: A Conversation with Max Fonseca

Author:
Kerry M. White and Max Fonseca
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The poet and activist talks about the precarity that trans, queer, and Afrodescendent people in Cuba face today, and the life sustaining worlds built by Black trans women in Cuba and its diaspora.
Topic:
Politics, Feminism, Interview, Transgender, Activism, and Afro-Feminism
Political Geography:
Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean

62. Bodies on Fire: Toloposungo’s Trans-Marika Abolitionist Performance

Author:
Cecilia Azar
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In Colombia, a trans-marika vogue collective takes to the streets to denounce state violence and call for police abolition.
Topic:
Culture, State Violence, Transgender, and Abolitionism
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

63. Anti-Racist Transfeminism: Against Adjustment and the Plundering of Rights

Author:
Chana Mamani
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In the face of discriminatory narratives and laws in Argentina, activists advocate for anti-racist, transfeminist initiatives during this year’s International Women’s Day.
Topic:
Feminism, Racism, Activism, and Transfeminism
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

64. “Carnival is Always Political”: Keeping Protest Alive in Trinidad

Author:
Khalea Robertson
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Designer Robert Young discusses the political activism woven into the costumes of his band, Vulgar Fraction, which participates annually in Trinidad and Tobago’s Carnival celebrations.
Topic:
Politics, Protests, Interview, and Carnival
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, and Trinidad and Tobago

65. Brazil’s Student Movement Resists the Far Right, at Home and Abroad

Author:
Alice Taylor
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In the days after the Trump inauguration, Brazilian students gathered at the largest student congress in Latin America to debate the future of left resistance.
Topic:
Donald Trump, Leftist Politics, Students, and Activism
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Latin America

66. Trump’s Latin America Policy: Inconsistencies and Vacillations

Author:
Steve Ellner
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The Trump administration’s volatility on foreign policy reveals internal divisions within Trumpism. But when threats and populism lose their momentum, the anti-communist hawks may get their way.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Latin America

67. The U.S. War on Migrants Gets Help from El Salvador

Author:
Timothy O'Farrell
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
El Salvador's offer to house deportees and U.S. citizens in its infamous prisons – for profit – signals a new and troubling escalation in the criminalization of migration.
Topic:
Migration, Prisons/Penal Systems, Donald Trump, Deportation, and Criminalization
Political Geography:
Latin America, El Salvador, and United States of America

68. Rio’s Samba Parade Spotlights Trans Rights

Author:
Constance Malleret
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The Tuiuiti samba school uplifts trans identities and highlights the political dimensions of Brazil’s Carnival celebrations.
Topic:
Politics, Dance, Transgender, and Carnival
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

69. Forbidden African Legacies in the Dominican Republic

Author:
Patricia Rodríguez
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Despite the ongoing criminalization and racist persecution of African tradition, from the criminalization of Vodou to restrictions against Gagá, Afro-Dominican culture persists.
Topic:
Culture, Racism, Tradition, Criminalization, and Vodou
Political Geography:
Africa, Latin America, and Dominican Republic

70. South Sudan’s peace process stagnates as violence grips Greater Upper Nile region

Author:
Stefan Bakumenko
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
In September 2024, South Sudan’s government postponed elections until 2026.1 This and other violations of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) reinforce the country’s deep divisions and continued, widespread violence.2 After a devastating civil war (2013-2018), politicians, generals, and communities have lacked a unifying identity or incentive and have focused on shoring up their political power, undermining their rivals, and diversifying their economic holdings. As South Sudan’s oil fields dry up, wealth and sustenance are carved out wherever they can be found, often violently.3 The central government in Juba deprives national institutions of funding, neither state nor rebel forces are committed to integrating into a unified military, and state officials at all levels exploit their positions to fund expensive lifestyles and large patronage networks.4 Politicians have long plundered South Sudan’s main source of wealth, its state-owned oil company, Nilepet, to fuel their wars and wealth, and the country remains economically destitute.5 Across South Sudan, violence has become more geographically dispersed as armed groups have fractured. Between 1 January 2013 and the signing of R-ARCSS on 12 September 2018, there were conflict events in 718 distinct locations, compared to 1,720 between 13 September 2018 and 17 January 2025 (see maps below). Given these realities, the peace process could hardly address South Sudan’s myriad, local-level contests over borders, resources, and political positions.6
Topic:
Elections, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

71. Q&A: What happened in the coastal region of Syria last week?

Author:
Muaz Al Abdullah
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 6 March, a group of armed supporters of former President Bashar al-Assad ambushed a group of security forces in Beit Ana village in the Lattakia countryside, killing and injuring several service members. Following the attack, the gunmen targeted an ambulance that tried to evacuate those who were killed and injured. This triggered a large-scale response by the security forces inside Beit Ana that included artillery shelling and helicopter strikes. Later that same day, Assad loyalists launched coordinated attacks across Lattakia and Tartus governorates to restore control over the main junctions that link the two provinces. This sparked a cycle of violence that included extrajudicial killings of people in the Alawite community by regime forces. At least 57 distinct locations in Lattakia, Hama, Homs, and Tartus governorates were the site of violence over four days (see map below).
Topic:
Security, Extrajudicial Killings, Armed Conflict, and Alawites
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

72. India — Expert Comment: Kashmir attack stokes tensions along the India-Pakistan Line of Control

Author:
Pearl Pandya
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 22 April, separatist militants fired at tourists in the resort town of Pahalgam in the Kashmir Valley, killing at least 26, including one foreign national. This was the deadliest attack on civilians in nearly two decades, and a rare attack against tourists, who have thus far been largely spared from separatist violence.1 Local reports attributed the attack to The Resistance Front (TRF), believed to be an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, an Islamist separatist group.2 While the group has focused its activities against Indian security forces, ACLED data show the TRF’s involvement in at least 21 attacks targeting civilians in Kashmir since the group’s founding in 2019. Similar to Tuesday’s attack, non-Kashmiris and Hindus have borne the brunt of the TRF’s violence.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Violence, Separatism, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

73. Expert Comment: The possibility of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea

Author:
Clionadh Raleigh
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
ACLED’s CEO, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, said: “The lines of this potential conflict are too fragmented, and there is more smoke than fire. The prevailing idea seems to be a rising contest between Eritrea and Ethiopia in and over Tigray, which the Ethiopia National Defense Force (ENDF) withdrew from in February. The ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) party is incredibly and dangerously fragmented, and the non-ruling fragment is making a lot of noise. Although the faction has never admitted it, much is being made about their possible opportunistic alliances with the (former and current enemy) Eritrean government on one hand and fragments of the (former and current enemy) Amhara nationalist militias — Fano — on the other hand. So who would fight whom over what is as confusing and unlikely in Tigray as it is outside of the region.”
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), and Ethiopia National Defense Force (ENDF)
Political Geography:
Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Africa

74. Philippines — Expert Comment: Drug war killings continue in the Philippines as former president Rodrigo Duterte faces ICC warrant over anti-drugs crackdown

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
In the weeks that followed the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte on 11 March, nationwide protests against and in support of him broke out in the Philippines. ACLED data show nearly 60 pro-Duterte and eight anti-Duterte rallies in the Philippines in March. The largest protest took place in Davao City, Duterte’s stronghold, where supporters condemned Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. for allowing the arrest.1 In contrast, the demonstrations in support of the ICC’s actions were led by the families of drug victims. Meanwhile, Filipinos living overseas gathered in The Hague to support Duterte and ask for his repatriation.
Topic:
War on Drugs, Extrajudicial Killings, International Criminal Court (ICC), and Rodrigo Duterte
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

75. Iron Wall or iron fist? Palestinian militancy and Israel’s campaign to reshape the northern West Bank

Author:
Ameneh Mehvar and Nasser Khdour
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The largest forced displacement of Palestinians in the West Bank since 1967 has taken place in the first months of 2025, according to the United Nations:1 Over 40,000 Palestinians have been displaced, and the Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nur al-Shams camps are nearly emptied. This occurred as part of an operation launched on 21 January 2025 called Iron Wall — the largest Israel Defense Forces (IDF) military operation in the West Bank in decades — which initially targeted refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarm before expanding to other areas, including Tubas and Nablus. The operation was launched shortly after the ceasefire in Gaza went into effect (see graph below), when Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, announced that the government had decided to add security in the West Bank as an official war goal.2 Israeli officials allege that militancy in the West Bank is part of a multi-pronged campaign orchestrated by Iran against Israel,3 and that it is necessary to curb the growing militant presence in the north, citing both the intensity of the fighting and the number of attacks originating from the area — some targeting Israel — as justification for the operation.4 However, the UN and other human rights organizations have criticized Israel’s heavy-handed approach in Operation Iron Wall, stating that its use of force is more suited to war than policing.5
Topic:
Settler Colonialism, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), 2023 Gaza War, Forced Displacement, and Militancy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

76. Q&A | Disbanding the PKK: A turning point in Turkey’s longest war?

Author:
Nancy Ezzeddine
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 12 May 2025, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) officially announced its decision to disband and end its armed struggle. Designated a terrorist organization by Turkey and several of its allies, the group has waged a decades-long insurgency for Kurdish autonomy and rights. This announcement followed a unilateral ceasefire declared on 1 March, after the PKK’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, issued a call for the group to disarm. The PKK has previously made commitments to peace, but last week’s announcement is unprecedented. In this Q&A, ACLED Middle East Analyst Nancy Ezzeddine explains how this development compares to previous efforts, what motivates each side, and whether it marks the start of a sustainable peace process.
Topic:
Insurgency, Kurds, PKK, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

77. The Devastating Impact of Lebanon’s Environmental Failures

Author:
Peter S. Germanos and Samara Azzi
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
For decades, Lebanon has suffered under a systematic and intentional mismanagement of country resources and capital, with devastating repercussions. Poverty rates in Lebanon have skyrocketed, and the healthcare and education systems have crumbled, leaving millions vulnerable. Less discussed but no less dangerous is the environmental degradation that the country’s elite have allowed to occur. Lebanon’s deteriorating environment adds another layer of tragedy to the widespread economic crisis; sewage contaminates drinking water, generators spew toxic fumes, excessive groundwater usage renders it saline, and irrigation with sewage water contaminates agricultural produce. The price for Lebanese is becoming increasingly well documented. Cancer cases have surged, and the Lebanese people can expect to continue to suffer in the future as well. This situation was not, however, a foregone conclusion, or due solely to global climate change outside of Lebanese control. Rather, Lebanon’s significant environmental degradation is due in large part to systemic corruption and a total lack of effective regulation. Understanding the scope of this issue is vital to realizing what the people of Lebanon are facing, along with developing a plan to address some of these interconnected environmental and governance challenges.
Topic:
Corruption, Environment, International Cooperation, Pollution, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

78. Jordan’s Escalating Border Threats Amid Regional Upheaval

Author:
Abdullah Hayek and Ahmad Sharawi
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 8, the Royal Jordanian Air Force conducted strikes against suspected drug dealers and warehouses in Syria, their fourth such operation in recent months. The strikes occurred amid military reports of increased smuggling attempts—primarily involving drugs, but also weapons—across the kingdom’s northern border. Between January and August 2023 alone, a total of 194 smuggling and infiltration attempts were recorded, 88 of them involving drones. Some cross-border incidents have resulted in clashes with Jordanian security personnel, including three recent episodes: a December 12 clash in which one soldier was killed; a December 18 battle that lasted more than ten hours and marked the first seizure of antitank weaponry on the border; and a January 6 clash in which five smugglers were killed and fifteen arrested. Jordanian military officials attribute each of these attempts to pro-Iran proxy groups in Syria. Moreover, the increasingly advanced arms that smugglers are using—including rocket-propelled grenades, mines, and drones—have led Jordanian officials to conclude that these criminal endeavors pose a wider threat to national security. Greater U.S. assistance would reinforce the kingdom’s efforts to address this threat at a time of wider regional crisis.
Topic:
National Security, Border Control, Syrian War, Borders, Drug Trafficking, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

79. The Red-Hot Blue Line

Author:
Assaf Orion
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The first weekend of 2024 saw one of the fiercest exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel since the 2006 war. On January 6, the group launched antitank guided missiles, attack drones, and no less than sixty-two rockets against Israel’s northern air control unit in Mount Meron, causing some damage. Hezbollah described the salvo as an “initial response” to the targeted killing of senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut days earlier. In response, the Israel Defense Forces struck Hezbollah military compounds, a surface-to-air missile unit, and other targets at seven sites in south Lebanon. On January 8, an IDF strike killed Wissam al-Tawil, a senior commander in the group’s Radwan special forces. The next day, Hezbollah drones attacked the IDF’s northern command headquarters, while Israel killed the head of the group’s southern aerial unit and three of his team. In all, Hezbollah has claimed ten new “martyrs” since Saturday. Amid the fighting, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has restated Israel’s “resolve to return the northern communities home, diplomatically if possible; otherwise, by other means.” Similarly, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, “We prefer the path of an agreed-upon diplomatic settlement, but we are getting close to the point where the hourglass will turn over.” Senior U.S. and European officials are now shuttling between Beirut and Jerusalem in a bid to stop the escalation. What exactly will it take to prevent a war in Lebanon and possibly beyond?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Diplomacy, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

80. Domestic Disagreements Limit Netanyahu’s Options with Washington

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the Hamas-Israel war enters a new phase, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is finding it increasingly difficult to balance relationships inside his government and with the White House. On the military front, Israel has taken most of northern Gaza, though an estimated 5,000-6,000 Hamas fighters remain active in various tunnel networks. Major combat operations have largely shifted to central and southern Gaza, while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have released most of the 360,000 reservists mobilized at the beginning of the war and withdrawn some forces for retraining. Yet the situation is murkier on the diplomatic and political fronts. Earlier today, Netanyahu and President Biden spoke with each other for the first time in almost four weeks, and the prime minister is fundamentally at odds with Benny Gantz’s centrist National Unity party. When Gantz joined the government shortly after the October 7 attacks, he helped dilute the influence of the far-right parties led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir while focusing the cabinet on the mutual goal of driving Hamas from power in Gaza. Yet their policy differences have become more salient since then, and Netanyahu seems convinced that Gantz—who is riding high in the polls—will soon leave the government to capitalize on the prime minister’s wartime unpopularity in potential early elections. This has made Netanyahu more dependent on his far-right ministers, much to the consternation of the White House.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Domestic Politics, Conflict, and Benjamin Netanyahu
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

81. The Perfect Storm: Trump and USA 2024

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Donald Trump casts a long shadow over the upcoming presidential – and congressional – elections in the United States. It is a menacing shadow, not only for what the former president could do if he returned to office but also because the political and institutional balances of the United States are threatened by the repercussions of his many legal troubles, the latest of which could even see him excluded from the race for the White House.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

82. European and Tunisian Migration Policies: A Recipe for Failure and Suffering

Author:
Refugees International
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
After several months of significant increase in irregular migration from Tunisia to Europe, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, along with several other European Union leaders, have set their sights on what they seem to believe is the best way to produce immediate results: increasing the provision of cash, equipment and training to the Tunisian security forces (TSF) to diminish the country’s booming irregular migration industry. In the last two months, the European Commission announced it wants to agree to “new anti-smuggling operational partnerships” with Tunisia[1] that would significantly scale up border controls, police and judicial cooperation, as well as cooperation with EU agencies (for example, Frontex). An “International Conference on a global alliance to counter migrant smuggling” was also convened in Brussels on 28 November.[2] As one top EU official in Tunis put it to Refugees International, “There is a strong desire by some in Europe to get the maximum amount of resources possible to the Tunisian government and security forces as soon as possible to stop the boats, now and in the future”.[3] The EU intended strategy, however, appears destined for failure, falling short of its narrow objective of suppressing irregular migration and lacking in the broader – and more important – criteria of adherence to legal commitments, human rights principles and effective overall migration policy. This approach is riddled with four primary deficiencies.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Refugees, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, Tunisia, and Mediterranean

83. From Interconnection to Integration: German-Italian Energy Relations and the SoutH2 Corridor

Author:
Pier Paolo Raimondi and Wolfgang Münchau
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On 22 November 2023, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, signed a German-Italian Action Plan.[1] The Plan promises greater collaboration between the two countries on the biggest challenges currently facing Europe. Among these priorities is environmentally sustainable economic growth and the acceleration of climate protection. While the Action Plan is relatively terse, focusing on the establishment of fora for greater cooperation rather than providing a detailed roadmap, its energy and climate section does highlight a specific project as an example of closer cooperation: the acceleration of the completion of the so-called South-Central Corridor for the transport of hydrogen throughout Europe. This Corridor has the primary function of enabling the import of hydrogen produced in North Africa into the very core of Europe and thus to the high-demand areas of Germany and Northern Italy. One especially important part is the so-called SouthH2 Corridor, which includes a pipeline running the entire length of the Italian peninsula before connecting to Southern Germany via Austria. There are strong political and strategic arguments for a deeper energy cooperation between Italy and Germany, despite some differences.[2] Hydrogen and gas infrastructure is a key area where intensified cooperation is crucial.[3] Through the SouthH2 Corridor, the two countries have indeed expressed their willingness to collaborate precisely on hydrogen infrastructure, notably the SoutH2 Corridor. However, such cooperation cannot be limited to the infrastructural part; it must extend to a series of related issues in which both countries should seek to align their political and legal initiatives, starting from overcoming uncertainties regarding the development of hydrogen demand and the use of other net-zero technologies in both countries. In short, cooperation on infrastructure can be used as a jumping off point for a deeper collaboration on and exchange of information about their broader transition strategies. Such bilateral coordination would also contribute to the achievement of EU Green Deal objectives more broadly.
Topic:
Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Regional Integration, Pipeline, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Italy

84. Charting the Course: European Perspectives on EU–Tunisia Relations

Author:
Akram Ezzamouri, Colin Powers, and Emmanuel Cohen-Hadria
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Over the past year, a surge in migrant people arriving from Tunisia to Europe has thrust the North African country into the heart of European political agendas, sparking concerns across the continent’s capitals about its hardships and risk of economic and social collapse. The immediate policy response involved a frenzy of Euro-Tunisian diplomatic activity guided by the Italian government – itself needing to demonstrate some kind of answer to increased migratory arrivals to its shores – and culminated in the signing of the EU-Tunisia Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in July 2023.[1] The MoU, structured around five key areas of collaboration – macroeconomic stability, trade cooperation, green energy transition, people-to-people contacts, and migration and mobility – is said by so-called “Team Europe” to aim fostering a strategic and comprehensive partnership between the European Union and Tunisia. However, observers highlighted its detrimental shortsightedness, the flaws in its legal nature, as well as the necessity to allocate political and financial resources beyond migration management to truly diversify the agreement.[2] Against this backdrop, three European experts offer here considerations on challenges and prospects in EU–Tunisia relations and propose alternative avenues where cooperation can evolve, emphasising the creation of a stable and equitable political environment in both Europe and Tunisia.
Topic:
Migration, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Migrants
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Tunisia

85. Hamas’s Narrative of 7 October and the Impossibility of Ignoring It

Author:
Menachem Klein
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Hamas’ barbaric attack on 7 October and Israel’s ruthless retaliation against Hamas and Gaza Strip residents are unprecedented shocking events in their severity, repercussions and impact on both peoples’ collective memory. Only few of those Israelis who agreed that Hamas underwent a political change since 2017[1] – when it issued its Document of General Principles and Policies[2] – still maintain that view. Similarly, Western government officials who engaged in direct or indirect dialogue with Hamas claim that the crimes it committed on 7 October were driven by its adherence to a fundamentalist Islamic ideology inspired by ISIS.
Topic:
Hamas, Narrative, Collective Memory, and October 7
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

86. Six Takeaways from Two Years of Russia-Ukraine War

Author:
Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine from the North, East and South in order to control the whole country through direct military occupation and/or a proxy government. Moscow assumed a rapid collapse or surrender of the Ukrainian state and planned a relatively fast war of manoeuvre coupled with air assaults and/or amphibious operations to take over major cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa. Ukraine – which had prepared to some extent for a Russian invasion since 2014 – resisted and rolled back invading forces from its major cities in 2022, including from Kherson despite its illegal annexation to the Russian Federation. In late spring 2023, Kyiv launched a counter-offensive aimed at liberating territories south of Zaporizhzhia, but unfortunately Russian forces were able to hold most of the ground previously gained. A high level of attrition has now been experienced by both sides for several months, with more than half a million troops deployed by belligerents. Over the last six months, the war has turned into a bloody stalemate. It witnesses continuous and indiscriminate air campaigns by Russia – including the use of bombs, missiles and drones –, tailored raids by Ukraine on the occupied territories and across the Black Sea, and above all fierce land battles over a highly fortified frontline with a systematic, mutual shelling and massive use of drones. Two years after the beginning of the invasion, Russian armed forces control the land corridor that connects the Crimea peninsula to Donbas – two areas already directly or indirectly under Moscow influence since 2014 – and the whole Azov Sea: a region accounting for slightly less than 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory. Still, Ukraine continues to access the Black Sea and export its goods. Such an occupation has cost so far dozens of thousands of military casualties in both countries, the lives of thousands of Ukrainian civilians, as well as huge numbers of injured people and millions of displaced citizens – plus the material destruction brought by the conflict. What does this dramatic watershed for Ukraine mean for Europe as a whole? At least six takeaways can be gained for the armed forces of European countries, NATO and EU defence initiatives, with a view to deterring Moscow from further aggressions and if necessary defending Europe from them.
Topic:
Defense Industry, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

87. The Venezuela-Guyana Dispute over the Essequibo

Author:
Rafael Ramírez
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Essequibo[1] is a territory located in the North-East of South America, between Venezuela and Guyana, with a maritime projection towards the Atlantic. It has been part of Venezuela since 1777[2] under the rule of the Spanish Empire and then as the Republic of Venezuela since 1810. The United Kingdom illegally occupied it in 1814,[3] while Venezuela was going through a long and bloody war of independence. The UK tried to formalise the dispossession of the territory with the Paris Arbitral Award of 3 October 1899,[4] in a flawed process in which Venezuela was represented by the United States. The British Empire exercised its power to obtain a ruling in its favour. After the death of the lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost in 1949, who represented Venezuela in this process, these irregularities became public knowledge.[5] In 1962, Venezuela denounced the nullity of the process before the United Nations and insisted on its historical claim.[6] On 17 February 1966, Venezuela and the UK signed the Geneva Agreement,[7] whereby the parties recognised the nullity of the Paris Arbitral Award and agreed to search for a negotiated solution. During this process, Guyana (independent since May 1966) would administer the Essequibo but without carrying out any activity that would modify the legal situation of the territory as established in Article V of the agreement, which states that “No acts or activities taking place while this Agreement is in force shall constitute a basis for asserting, supporting or denying a claim to territorial sovereignty in the territories of Venezuela or British Guiana or create any rights of sovereignty in those territories”. After four years, no progress was made in the negotiation, so on 18 June 1970, the two parties signed the Port of Spain Protocol,[8] to suspend the meetings for twelve years and to possibly use as an alternative one of the means of peaceful settlement provided for in the UN Charter.
Topic:
Oil, Territorial Disputes, History, and Borders
Political Geography:
South America, Venezuela, North America, Guyana, and United States of America

88. The Russia-Ukraine War and Implications for the European Defence Industry

Author:
Michele Nones
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Two years after the Russian attack on Ukraine, it is clear to everyone that the European Defence Technological and Industrial Basis (EDITB) was ill-equipped to face the consequences of a large-scale, high-intensity conflict on the Old Continent. The war changed three decades of procurement policies, production and technological trends that had previously shaped (not only) Europe’s approach to defence hardware. From the 1990s onwards, the preference for fewer, precise, highly advanced weapon systems over the massive employment of low-medium tech solutions had a double effect on the EDITB. First, it led European markets to partially consolidate, and individual companies to strive for increased efficiency. This meant not investing/maintaining redundant production sites, divesting from relatively low profitable and low demand segments such as the manufacturing of artillery shells and pursuing research and development (R&D) investment in high-end products. Second, the emphasis on technological prowess also shaped the way the European Union tried to jumpstart defence cooperation and integration among member states, first and foremost through the European Defence Fund (EDF) and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO).
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Weapons, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

89. NATO’s Posture vis-a-vis Russia: Features and Challenges

Author:
Elio Calcagno and Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Russian war against Ukraine has had multiple impacts on NATO’s deterrence and defence stance vis-à-vis Moscow, which today presents a number of challenges to allies – particularly European ones. The 2022 Madrid summit and the resulting Strategic Concept signalled a substantial departure for the alliance in terms of focus and posture.[1] First, the new Concept represents an unequivocal return to a Russia policy based first and foremost on deterrence and defence, rather than calls for cooperation that had been typical between the end of the Cold War and the Russian illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.[2] The 2022 Concept stands in stark contrast with this period of détente and instead explicitly points to Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area”.[3] This new focus on deterrence and defence is accompanied with an enhancement of NATO’s military presence along the northern and eastern flanks.[4]
Topic:
NATO, Deterrence, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

90. The Mattei Plan for Africa: A Turning Point for Italy’s Development Cooperation Policy?

Author:
Daniele Fattibene
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
At the end of January 2024, Italy hosted an Africa summit during which Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni outlined the vision and first projects of the so-called “Mattei Plan”, an ambitious project announced officially at the end of 2023[1] that aims to shape Italy’s strategy for Africa in the years to come.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Italy

91. The Italy-Africa Summit 2024 and the Mattei Plan: Towards Cooperation between Equals?

Author:
Filippo Simonelli, Maria Luisa Fantappiè, and Leo Goretti
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy inaugurated its year of G7 presidency with the Italy-Africa summit on 28-29 January in Rome, an event representative of the current government’s ambitions.[1] The long-awaited meeting was the first test for the strategy of “cooperation as equals” with African states that Giorgia Meloni has repeatedly proposed as central to her government's foreign policy. It was also the first occasion to test the real scope of the so-called Mattei Plan for Africa, the project with which the Italian government wants to substantiate this strategy but whose official strategic outline has yet to be announced.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Italy

92. 9 candidates in the running for the presidential election in Finland. Towards a 2nd round: Alexander Stubb (KOK) - Pekka Haavisto (Greens)?

Author:
Corinne Deloy
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 28 January, in the first round of the presidential election in Finland, 9 candidates are running for the supreme office. If no candidate receives more than half the votes, a second round will be held on 11 February. Finns can vote by post from 17 to 23 January (17 to 20 January for those living abroad.) After two consecutive terms leading the country, the current head of state, Sauli Niinistö (National Coalition Party, KOK), cannot stand for re-election. The Presidency of the Republic is the institution in which Finns have the most confidence (84%), according to a recent survey conducted by the Foundation for Municipal Development and published in January 2024.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Europe and Finland

93. Right and left running neck and neck three weeks before the snap general elections in Portugal

Author:
Corinne Deloy
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 9 November, Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa dissolved the Assembly of the Republic, the single chamber of Parliament, and announced that general elections would be held on 10 March 2024. These elections, which should have been held by 11 March 2026 at the latest, have therefore been brought forward by two years.
Topic:
Corruption, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, Leftist Politics, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Portugal

94. Towards a duel between Peter Pellegrini and Ivan Korcok in the Slovak presidential election?

Author:
Corinne Deloy
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The 1st round of the presidential election will take place on 23 March in Slovakia. 11 candidates are standing in this ballot. If no candidate obtains more than 50% of the votes + 1, a 2nd round will be held on 6 April. The term of office of the current President of the Republic, Zuzana Caputova, expires on 15 June next. According to opinion polls, Peter Pellegrini (Hlas-Social Democracy), Speaker of Parliament, and Ivan Korcok, former Foreign Minister, are the favourites and are expected to meet in the 2nd round on 6 April. "The presidential election will tell us whether Slovaks support Prime Minister Robert Fico or whether they want to curb and limit his actions," said Tim Haughton, Professor of Political Science at the University of Birmingham and an expert on Slovakia. He believes that the turnout will be crucial.
Topic:
Domestic Politics and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Europe and Slovakia

95. Will the Democratic Union (HDZ) remain in power in Croatia?

Author:
Corinne Deloy
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 15 March, the President of the Republic of Croatia, Zoran Milanovic, announced that general elections would be held on 17 April. This election is the first in a series to be held in the country in 2024: European elections on 9 June and presidential election at the end of the year. 3.7 million people are expected to vote on 17 April. Croatia has been governed since 2016 by the Democratic Union (HDZ), led by Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, allied with the Serbian Independent Democratic Party (SDSS), led by Milorad Pupovac. The outgoing head of government is also the longest-serving prime minister. His coalition is supported by the Social Liberal Party, the Christian Democratic Party, the Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja, the People's Party-Reformists (NS-R), the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Croatia, the Roma Alliance of the Republic of Croatia, the Union of Albanians and the Croatian Party of Pensioners (HSU). However, the Democratic Union is struggling somewhat. It has been criticised for appointing Ivan Turudic to the post of public prosecutor. This choice was confirmed by parliament: 78 MPs voted in favour, against 60 and 2 abstentions. Ivan Turudic's critics point to his links with controversial figures such as Zdravko Mamic, a former manager of Dinamo Zagreb football club who was convicted of tax fraud and fled to Bosnia to escape justice, and a number of senior Democratic Union officials suspected of corruption. The government also faced several demonstrations last March in the country's five largest cities (Zagreb, Split, Rijeka, Osijek and Varazdin) - organised by several left-wing opposition forces (Mozemo ("We can" in Croatian) and a coalition of 6 parties led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP) - which called on Croatians to rally under the slogan "Enough is enough". Afterwards, Social Democrat leader Pedja Grbin promised to "finish the job at the polling stations". Zoran Milanovic's "coup" The electoral campaign witnessed an unprecedented moment when Croatian President Zoran Milanovic announced at a press conference in mid-March, alongside Pedja Grbin, his candidacy for the general elections as head of the SDP list in Zagreb ... in the first constituency in which the outgoing Prime Minister, Andrej Plenkovic, is running. "Sometimes you have to leave your comfort zone if you want to have solid majority and form a government of national salvation," declared the head of state. Asked to rule on this unprecedented situation, the Constitutional Court stated on 18 March that it was absolutely impossible for the President of the Republic to stand as a candidate in the general elections. "The candidacy of the current President of the Republic in general elections is incompatible with the Croatian Constitution and the principle of the separation of powers. The President is a strictly non-partisan person and cannot take part in the activities of any political party. If he wants to be a candidate, he must resign", the Court ruled. Nor is the head of state authorised to campaign in favour of a particular list, at the risk of annulling the election. Zoran Milanovic responded by describing the members of the Constitutional Court as "illiterate peasants"; he stated that he would only resign once election victory was certain, and that he was therefore in a position to succeed Andrej Plenkovic as head of government. Zoran Milanovic, President of the Republic since 2020, was Prime Minister between 2011 and 2016.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Courts, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Europe and Croatia

96. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda is expected to be re-elected

Author:
Corinne Deloy
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 12 May, Lithuanians will go to the polls for the 1st round of the presidential election. The outgoing head of state, Gitanas Nauseda, is running for re-election. Among his main rivals is Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte (Union of Fatherland-Christian Democrats, TS-LKD). The two candidates already faced each other in the 2nd round of the previous presidential election on 12 and 26 May 2019. 6 other candidates are in the running for this election. If none of them receives more than 50% +1 vote on 12 May, a 2nd round will be held on 26 May.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Europe and Lithuania

97. Agriculture: an adjustment variable in trade agreements?

Author:
Nicholas-Jean Brehon
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
SUVs versus limousines? Cows, not cars! What if agriculture, and livestock farming in particular, were the adjustment variable in international trade negotiations being conducted - discreetly - by the European Union? What are we to make of the much-heard argument raised at the agricultural blockades?
Topic:
Agriculture, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

98. “Condemned to Sacrifice” in the Shadow of Argentina’s Vaca Muerta

Author:
Patricia Rodríguez
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
From Patagonia, an environmental activist discusses her community’s struggle against a new oil pipeline and the threats of expanding extractivism in their territory.
Topic:
Environment, Oil, Pipeline, and Activism
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Patagonia

99. Crossing the Storm: EZLN Marks 30 Years with a 120-year Plan

Author:
Ann Louise Deslandes
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The Zapatista liberation movement gathered in Chiapas to honor three decades of struggle and prepare for an uncertain future.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Political Movements, Post-Colonial, and Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN)
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

100. Informal Settlements on the Front Lines of Wildfire Risk in Bogotá

Author:
Natalia Torres Garzón
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Vulnerable dwellers were disproportionately affected by recent wildfires in Colombia's capital. As climate change exacerbates El Niño’s impact, affected families regroup amid the threat of additional blazes.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Informal Settlement, and Wildfires
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America