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62. The Pact of the Future—Financing Issues
- Author:
- Betty N. Wainaina and Sarah Cliffe
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Submissions for the Summit of the Future were requested at the end of 2023. CIC developed and submitted a short input on financing and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This note lays out our rationale and narrative concerning financing for development. Why is financing such a contentious issue? In part, this is because the events of the last few years have increased global financing needs—for pandemic recovery and preparedness, for climate, for social protection and economic development to overcome price shocks and other international pressures. In addition, global financing plays a role in escalating grievances about double standards. Double standards are, of course, a broader argument, from failure to coordinate COVID-19 vaccines to questions over different applications of international humanitarian and human rights law in Ukraine versus Palestine. Financing plays a role here, however, because of obvious inequities following COVID-19. HICs spent 24 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on stimulus and social protection programs in the first year of COVID-19; MICS could spend only 6 percent and LICS only 2 percent. Debt distress has risen dramatically in the last four years; 25 percent of emerging market countries are at high risk of default, while among low-income countries 60 percent are either at high risk of default or already in default. Some of the reasons financing paragraphs became contentious in recent resolutions are more process-based. Using the SDG Summit Political Declaration as an example, the draft text was too detailed in some respects and laid open challenges as to what should be decided in different governance structures. Some areas were insufficiently tailored to the current state of debate at the IFIs, G20, and other international platforms, risking being out of date at the time of publication. In some aspects, they were not specific enough, missing an opportunity to bring new ideas to the table. Last, they did not focus sufficiently on the core comparative advantage of a UN platform for these discussions, which is to link the achievement of the SDGs, global political stability, and peaceful international relations with financing.
- Topic:
- Development, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
63. Taking Stock of 2023 and Looking Ahead to 2024: How to Combine Realism with Hope?
- Author:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The final months of 2023 were extraordinarily grim. The world had already weathered four years of repeated crises. The horrific attack on Israel carried out by Hamas on October 7 has resulted in a response by Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT) that has ignored all norms of international humanitarian and human rights law. This has resulted in an estimated 20,000+ deaths to date. CIC’s annual 2023-2024 analysis outlines takeaways from the previous year and key trends for the new year. Notably, it delves into major global conflicts impacting international peace, lesser-known trends, and economic disparities. Additionally, it explores prospects for 2024, including potential peace breakthroughs and advancements in revamping outdated multilateral approaches. In Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel, and the appalling suffering caused by Israel’s attempt to wipe out Hamas in Gaza, it is evident that double standards have been applied in matters concerning human rights and that, despite the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, societies still struggle to recognize the common humanity of their adversaries. At the same time, crises in other regions and long-term challenges, such as debt and socioeconomic pressures, struggle to garner any attention. This has spurred visceral political responses in many countries, turning inward and perhaps “sleepwalking” toward greater global catastrophe, as we have seen in the past in less interconnected times.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Peacebuilding, Russia-Ukraine War, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
64. Fragility, Conflict, and Violence at the World Bank—Recommendations for the Spring Meetings
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Daniel Friedman, Betty N. Wainaina, and Céline Monnier
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The World Bank Governors meet at the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Bank (WB) Spring Meetings this week to discuss progress on the World Bank’s Evolution Roadmap. Much of this discussion will focus on financing, including commitments to the hybrid facility and the prospects for the upcoming International Development Association (IDA) replenishment. Equally important, however, is whether and how the World Bank continues to play a leading role in international support to countries affected by fragility, violence, and conflict. In this piece, the authors provide recommendations for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings 2024, considering how the World Bank Evolution Roadmap addresses conflict, fragility, and violence; and the importance for the Bank to maintain its financial allocations to prevention in the upcoming International Development Association round of financing.
- Topic:
- Development, World Bank, Conflict, Violence, IMF, and Fragility
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
65. Halving Global Violence Starts in Our Homes and Streets
- Author:
- Luisa Portugal
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the world has seen a sharp increase in the number and intensity of armed conflicts globally. From 2020 to 2022, conflict deaths increased nearly fourfold, reaching numbers unseen since the end of the Cold War. The impacts of these wars do not stop at the battlefield; they undermine and destroy social contracts between people and states, slow and even reverse economic participation, and shatter communal bonds—leading to further injuries and deaths. Despite their impact, the multilateral ecosystem faces significant challenges and barriers in offering solutions or relief to these conflicts. Adding to the damage caused by armed conflicts is the widespread and devastating cost of criminal and interpersonal violence. It is crucial to shift the conversation on violence reduction and prevention into the development space. As member states decide during September 2024 at the Summit of Future what the Pact for the Future will look like, they should heed this call and focus on finding practical solutions for the violence that most often impacts people’s everyday lives. This new analysis, part of the CIC Perspectives series, examines the following: A development approach to reducing violence; What works to prevent and reduce violence; Four takeaways for the Summit of the Future.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
66. The Taiwan election result: A strategic opportunity for a calmer Taiwan Strait
- Author:
- Mikael Mattlin and Jyrki Kallio
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Taiwan held combined presidential and legislative elections last weekend. The international media generally expected that a win by Lai Ching-te (DPP), who in the past has favoured independence, would lead to tensions and even conflict in the Taiwan Strait. However, there are several reasons why the opposite could be the case.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Elections, and Lai Ching-te
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
67. The future of EU-Turkey relations: Transactional bargaining continues
- Author:
- Toni Alaranta
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Fundamental questions about Turkey’s EU path have been brushed aside for the last ten years. With enlargement back on the agenda, the EU-Turkey relationship seems to be moving towards even more transactionalism, lacking any prospect of meaningful integration.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
68. Two years of war in Ukraine: Will the West need another shock to act decisively?
- Author:
- Arkady Moshes
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The West is failing to provide Ukraine with sufficient resources to resist Russia’s invasion, and lacks a vision for the future of West-Russia relations. This may push Ukraine to the brink of defeat as early as 2024. Western capitals should realize the risks and stop procrastinating.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
69. Georgia’s government is playing with fire: Internal polarisation invites external interference
- Author:
- Sinikukka Saari
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Georgia’s government distrusts the West and democratic institutions – despite formally supporting Euro-Atlantic integration. It seeks to merge transactional foreign policy with ultra-conservative values and illiberalism. Current policies are polarising the nation, alienating the West, and making Georgia vulnerable to Russia’s interference.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Institutions, Polarization, Post-Soviet Space, Euroskepticism, and Eastern Neighborhood
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia
70. Majority-building in the next European Parliament: The case for a more formal coalition
- Author:
- Andreas T. Müller
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The openness of the European People’s Party (EPP) to some far-right parties in the European Parliament has led to mistrust and conflict within the political centre. A written coalition agreement could remedy this – and even improve democracy at the EU level.
- Topic:
- European Union, Democracy, European Parliament, and Coalition
- Political Geography:
- Europe
71. Defense Cooperation Agreements in northern Europe: Strengthening the United States’ global position, transatlantic relations, and regional deterrence and defense
- Author:
- Charly Salonius-Pasternak
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The US has concluded or updated bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreements (DCAs) with all Nordic states. These DCAs enhance regional deterrence, enable operational and tactical cooperation from day one in the event of war, and provide broader regional and global benefits.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Deterrence, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Nordic Nations, and United States of America
72. The UN Summit of the Future: Neither breakthrough nor breakdown
- Author:
- Katja Creutz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The complex and interconnected governance challenges facing the world have led the UN to convene a Summit of the Future. Despite the tense international political climate, the aim is for UN member states to come together to lay out a roadmap for transforming global governance.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Governance, Geopolitics, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
73. Moldova’s European course: To be continued or to be reversed?
- Author:
- Ryhor Nizhnikau and Arkady Moshes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Against all expectations, the pro-European forces in Moldova failed to triumph in Sunday’s election. In particular, the results of the referendum on joining the EU revealed an antagonistic division of the nation into two halves. The parliamentary election next spring could put Moldova’s European integration on hold altogether.
- Topic:
- Elections, European Union, Regional Integration, and Eastern Neighborhood
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Moldova
74. Challenges to Chinese blue-water operations
- Author:
- Mike Sweeney
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Despite having the world’s largest navy, important questions can be asked about China’s ability to challenge the U.S. Navy on a global scale. A number of factors—geography, logistical infrastructure, force structure, and command culture—all argue that China cannot do so at this time. In particular, China would need to significantly expand the number and caliber of its overseas bases in order to support large-scale, blue-water operations by the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). China currently has just two overseas bases—at Djibouti and Cambodia—and both are of limited capacity. Absent such a basing network, the PLAN is reliant on at-sea replenishment, a capability that is inherently vulnerable in wartime. China possesses some quality at-sea replenishment vessels but not nearly in sufficient quantities to support widespread global operations. While Chinese naval aviation has shown important improvements over the last year, the PLAN does not appear to have the logistical capacity to sustain high-tempo carrier operations outside the First Island Chain for an extended period of time. Super-quiet Chinese nuclear submarines would be game-changers in terms of Chinese blue-water operations. But thus far China has not shown mastery of the requisite technologies to build boats with this capability. It would also take China several years to grow a fleet of super-quiet submarines once the necessary technological challenges have been solved. Structural issues with the Chinese economy raise new concerns about Beijing’s ability to fund a blue-water navy over the long term. Such calculations must include the expense of ship construction, but also the massive operations and maintenance budget needed to deploy a potential navy of over 400 ships.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Navy, Economy, and Submarines
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
75. No silver bullet: Aid is not a shortcut to victory for Ukraine
- Author:
- Michael DiMino
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Delayed or insufficient Western aid is often blamed for Ukraine’s lack of success on the battlefield. The truth is more complicated. There is no aid “silver bullet” for what ails Ukraine’s war effort. More aid alone is unlikely to make a decisive difference in the outcome of the war, especially if Ukraine’s structural disadvantages and strategic deficiencies remain unaddressed. More aid is unlikely to fundamentally change the conflict because Ukraine lacks the manpower necessary to use it to generate enough new combat power to retake lost territory. Moreover, the West does not currently possess the industrial capacity needed to fulsomely sustain an indefinite Ukrainian war effort. Russian adaptability and battlefield innovation have successfully blunted the effectiveness of several Western weapon systems. And Ukrainian doctrine and tactics remain suboptimal even in the third year of the war, meaning Kyiv has failed to employ the aid it does receive with maximal effectiveness. Neither Washington nor Kyiv has articulated a clear theory of victory for Ukraine. Western aid was always a stopgap to buy Ukraine time, not a regime-change project to bring about the dissolution of the Russian state. Instead of continuing to placate maximalist fantasies of total victory, the U.S. should advocate for a shift to a defensive strategy and openness to a negotiated settlement that ends the war, such that a sovereign and independent Ukrainian state can be preserved in the face of fighting to collapse.
- Topic:
- Weapons, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America
76. A new NATO agenda: Less U.S., less dependency
- Author:
- Benjamin Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The United States should aggressively reduce its force presence in Europe. This would be consistent with NATO’s original balancing purpose and U.S. expectations then that garrisoning Europe was a temporary expedient, not a permanent tool of U.S. dominance. The Russian threat, despite being energized by NATO expansion, is insufficient to demand the current defense effort devoted to it in Europe, whether it’s Americans or Europeans making that effort. The results of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underline this happy point: Russia has proven weaker than conventional wisdom held, and the advantages of defense evident in the war bode well for the territorial status quo NATO defends in Europe. A U.S. drawdown in Europe is unlikely to spark a European defense renaissance, but even so, the balance of power in Europe will remain intact, and the United States will be better off with the freed-up resources and reduced risks.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, Dependency, Balance of Power, and Burden Sharing
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America
77. Rethinking Africa Command
- Author:
- Mike Sweeney
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- As debate grows over U.S. policy towards Africa, consideration should be given to altering the continent’s status under the Department of Defense’s Unified Command Plan (UCP). Eliminating Africa Command (AFRICOM) under the UCP would both signify a policy shift away from a counterterrorism focus and ease the process of implementing that change within the policymaking bureaucracy. Establishing a three-star subcommand, nested under European Command (EUCOM), would still allow the United States to use force in Africa, when necessary, but would reduce the prominence of military power in U.S. policy toward the continent. AFRICOM and EUCOM essentially share much of their force structure; this unique relationship would facilitate the transition to the proposed three-star subcommand. Altering the U.S. military footprint in Africa should also be considered in the context of any changes to policy and command arrangements. Making specific recommendations at this time is complicated by the opaqueness of the current footprint.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Counter-terrorism, Africa Command (AFRICOM), and European Command (EUCOM)
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North America, and United States of America
78. A defensive approach to Ukraine military aid
- Author:
- Jennifer Kavanagh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The next administration is likely to continue U.S. military aid to Ukraine to some degree, yet thus far decisions about what aid to provide have been reactive and not connected to any strategy. The United States should use its military aid to push Ukraine to adopt a defensive strategy that will be more sustainable for the Ukrainians given manpower shortfalls and more responsible and fiscally feasible for the United States, while also reducing the risk of Russian escalation. This would be in line with America’s priorities in Ukraine, including preventing a Russian victory and preserving a sovereign Ukraine at lowest possible cost and without direct involvement in the war. This strategy would also put Ukraine in a good position for a settlement that trades some land for a ceasefire and supports Ukraine’s longer-term defense. A Ukraine aid framework centered on a defensive strategy would see the U.S. provide air defense, anti-tank mines, the material and equipment to build fortifications, short-range artillery and limited short-range missile variants, small uncrewed aerial systems, and some armored vehicles for transport. In many cases, however, quantities would be limited by the needs of U.S. forces or other U.S. partners. The U.S. would not provide most types of aircraft, long-range missiles, tanks, or other weapon systems that are primarily offensive in nature and could cross a redline for Vladimir Putin.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Weapons, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America
79. Reducing the Role of Nuclear Weapons in Military Alliances
- Author:
- Tytti Erästö
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the role of nuclear weapons in military alliances, focusing on the perspectives of the so-called umbrella states—that is, allied states that do not have their own nuclear weapons but are part of the ‘extended nuclear deterrence arrangements’ of a nuclear-armed patron. After analysing allied security thinking and highlighting the underlying assumptions about nuclear deterrence, the paper subjects some of those assumptions to critical scrutiny. Taking into account regional military balances and escalation risks related to nuclear deterrence, it challenges the perceived security benefits of forward-deployed non-strategic weapons, continued support for allied nuclear doctrines based on readiness for the first use of nuclear weapons, and the assumed inevitability of nuclear second strike that underlies the practices of nuclear assurance. The goal is to open discussion on the development of a more measured approach to deterrence that would allow for minimizing the role of nuclear weapons in military alliances.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Alliance, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
80. Climate Change Adaptation in Areas Beyond Government Control: Opportunities and Limitations
- Author:
- Karen Meijer and Ann-Sophie Böhle
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- Areas beyond government control constitute a highly diverse subgroup of fragile and conflict-affected settings. As a result of conflict and weak governance, many of these areas have become more vulnerable to climate change. Their communities have been left with limited capacity to respond to changing climatic conditions and extreme weather events. These settings pose unique challenges for external engagement and have, therefore, long been overlooked in adaptation efforts. This SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security explores both opportunities for and limitations of climate change adaptation in areas beyond government control. By highlighting the diversity of these settings and the range of possible adaptation measures, the paper proposes a framework with four guiding questions designed to help identify context-appropriate adaptation options.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Governance, and Adaptation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus