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42. The Children of War
- Author:
- Lila Roldán Vázquez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has shaken the world order and has seriously disrupted international peace and security. The geopolitical impact, the causes of the war and the reasons invoked to justify the armed aggression have been widely discussed. Among the many facets of the war, there is one issue that requires special attention, since it constitutes, without a doubt, one of its most serious consequences: the death of hundreds of children and the abduction of thousands of them, in flagrant violation of humanitarian law. We aim to analyze the circumstances and consequences of these actions, which may constitute a war crime, and to evaluate their impact in the medium and the long term.
- Topic:
- Security, International Law, Children, Civilians, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
43. The Aras Corridor: Azerbaijan's Rationale Behind the Deal with Iran
- Author:
- Rahim Rahimov
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Since the 2020 Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia and its subsequent push for the Zangezur Corridor, Baku, and Tehran have been embroiled in fierce waves of escalation. With the launch of construction works for the Aras Corridor as the purported replacement to the Zangezur Corridor, the two nations appear to have made a breakthrough, and a thaw can be seen in current bilateral relations. In lieu of Baku’s strong push for the Zangezur Corridor over the last three years, the change in direction triggers the immediate question as to why Azerbaijan agreed to the Aras Corridor deal with Tehran. In order to properly address this question, it is essential to distinguish Azerbaijan’s Zangezur Corridor project from its Zangezur discourse, which can otherwise lead to misunderstandings. The main reason for Baku’s concession to the Aras Corridor deal with Tehran and backtracking from the Zangezur Corridor is that Baku has achieved its objectives in the Zangezur discourse. Having achieved those objectives, the Zangezur Corridor alone, without the discourse, is of mere local importance to Azerbaijan. Yet the hype around it still persists, with the subsequent international reactions having made the topic somewhat toxic for Azerbaijan.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh
44. The Concept of "Putinism" and its Impact on the "Normalization" of Georgian-Russian Relations
- Author:
- Malkhaz Mikeladze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- In view of the ongoing aggression in Ukraine, the Russian elite is formulating conceptual approaches to justify the inevitability of the escalating confrontation with the West and to encompass the foreign priorities of the Russian Federation. Within expert circles, this combination of approaches is increasingly labeled as “Putinism,” with the belief that its main components will have a decisive impact on Russia’s relations with other countries, including Georgia. Amidst the ongoing polarization of Georgian society, the normalization of relations with Russia emerges as one of the most important issues, a normalization process that has triggered radicalization and sharp confrontation between the government and opposition, further complicating the depolarization process and civil dialogue recommended by the European Union. These challenges themselves seem to be obstacles to European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Therefore, the article aims to review the basic principles of “Putinism” and provide a pragmatic evaluation for the “normalization” of Georgian-Russian relations.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Normalization, Vladimir Putin, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia
45. The End of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe: Causes and Expected Consequences
- Author:
- Mariam Macharashvili
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- On November 7, 2023, Russia formally withdrew from the Convention on Arms in Europe (CFE), and in December, NATO suspended the agreement, leading to the collapse of one of the largest arms control treaties since the Cold War. The main goal of the treaty was to ensure security and stability in Europe through conventional arms control; through periodical monitoring, information was shared and trust was built between the parties. The new reality, emerging right after the cancelation of the agreement, has become the subject of active discussion in political and academic circles. Our paper aims to analyze the essence and meaning of the CFE agreement, the reasons for it being cancelled, and the expected results
- Topic:
- NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, Russia, and Convention on Arms in Europe (CFE)
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
46. The BRICS Expansion: Prerequisits and Anticipated Threats
- Author:
- Mariam Macharashvili
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- On January 1st, 2024, BRICS officially expanded. Initially, it was expected that six new states would become members of this club representing the “Global South” - Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia and Argentina. However, Argentina changed its mind at the last minute due to the election of Javier Milei as president. Unlike his predecessor, Alberto Fernandez, Milei is changing the vector of the country’s foreign policy from the «South» to the «West». Despite predictions of its breakup due to heterogeneity, the BRICS bloc has lasted longer than anticipated. During its time, the number of BRICS members has doubled, and there are still many countries interested in joining. As the BRICS countries strengthen their massive economy and even bigger goals, their ability to influence the world order increases, which may ultimately pose a threat to the entire Western free world. This paper will seek to provide brief answers to the following questions within the frame of expert opinion: 1. What is BRICS? 2. What events led to its expansion? and 3. What threats should we expect from the strengthening of the bloc?
- Topic:
- Alliance, BRICS, and Threat Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates
47. Political Challenges and Current Threats of Internet Fragmentation
- Author:
- Vladimer Svanadze
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- The positive process of rapid development of the Internet and Internet technologies is accompanied by certain risks that pose a threat to the unity and security of the global Internet network, its stability and sustainable growth. Although the unity, security, and stable development of the global Internet are important issues acknowledged by countries within the United Nations framework, some nations persist in creating a national-level Internet policy. This policy aims to control both domestic and external users of the Internet space, seeking to gain an advantage at the international level in using the Internet space as a tool of enforcement. This approach contributes to the fragmentation of the Internet into distinct parts, posing obstacles to its unity and stability. The article aims to demonstrate the political influence of individual countries on Internet fragmentation and, consequently, the potential threats such fragmentation poses to the unity, security, and stable development of the global Internet. To begin, when addressing the unity, security, and stability of the global Internet network, it is essential to reference the Internet Governance Forum (IGF) convened by the Secretary-General of the United Nations. This forum was preceded by the adoption of the Tunis Agenda for the Information Society in 2005, which played a pivotal role in shaping the discourse. The agenda notably defined the term “Internet governance” and acknowledged the collaborative involvement of stakeholders in various capacities. Specifically, the Tunis Agenda for the Information Society states, “Internet governance is the development and application by governments, the private sector, and civil society of their roles, common principles, norms, rules, decision-making procedures, and programs that shape the evolution and use of the Internet” (Tunis Agenda for the Information Society, 2005).
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, Governance, and Internet
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
48. Overview of the Russia-Ukraine War: Strategies and Expectations of the Conflict Parties
- Author:
- Mamuka Zhvania
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Non-objective and confusing viewpoints on the ongoing war in Ukraine often reverberate within the information sphere, and consequently in society, contributing to the dissemination of disinformation. Common suggestions include the notion that the West is weary of supporting Ukraine, Russia’s defeat is not advantageous for them, and that the West is endeavouring to compel Ukraine towards negotiations. The given article aims to elucidate the ongoing developments in the war and present a persuasive response to pertinent questions regarding the dynamics of hostilities and the strategies employed by the parties involved. The following is an analysis of the current stage of the Russia-Ukraine war, including its potential duration, the resources available to each party for conducting warfare, reasons for the delayed assistance from the West, and projections for the future.
- Topic:
- Disinformation, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
49. Occupied Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region: Changes in Russian Politics from the 1990s to 2024
- Author:
- Mamuka Komakhia
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- In the post-Soviet period, the Kremlin’s policy regarding the separatist regions of Georgia, Abkhazia, and the Tskhinvali region, underwent several stages of transformation. In the 1990s, Moscow positioned itself as a neutral mediator between the conflicting parties. However, following the August 2008 war and the subsequent recognition of the “independence” of these separatist regions, as well as the deployment of armed forces, Moscow became their main ally and security guarantor. Since 2022, after the onset of full-scale military aggression in Ukraine, Moscow has intensified efforts to increase its influence on these occupied regions, aiming for their full integration into Russia’s political, economic, and legal space. The article discusses the stages of transformation in Russian policy towards the occupied regions of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region from the 1990s to 2024, detailing and analysing changes at each stage.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Separatism, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Abkhazia, and Tskhinvali
50. Where Georgia's U-Turn Comes from and Where it is Heading
- Author:
- Kakha Gogolashvili
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- For 30 years, Georgian governments have pursued European integration, reflecting the will of the majority. They have implemented European standards and reforms, culminating in 2022 with the ‘European Perspective’ and EU candidate status in 2023. Then, unexpectedly, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party began to ignore EU recommendations, prioritizing state sovereignty and independent decision-making. This stance, reminiscent of Putin’s “sovereign democracy,” led to controversial actions like resisting judicial reforms and improving the election code. Instead of aligning with the EU, the government began strengthening its economic ties with Russia, even after the invasion of Ukraine. The most notable action was adopting the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, mirroring Russia’s 2012 law aimed at controlling civil society and the media. This provoked protests, divided society, and alarmed international partners, increasing Georgia’s isolation from the democratic world and its vulnerability to authoritarian powers, especially Russia. Thus, the key questions are: Why has GD chosen this risky path? With most Georgians supporting European integration, how should the EU and the international community respond to GD’s policies steering the country away from Europe?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia
51. Exploring the Application of AI in the Public Sector: The Case of Estonia and Lessons for Georgia
- Author:
- Salome Abramishvili
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming societies globally, offering unprecedented opportunities across sectors. The integration of AI into the public sector promises enhanced service delivery, efficiency, and significant decision-making improvements. Nations worldwide recognize AI’s strategic importance and are adopting National AI Strategies (NASs) to guide its development and deployment. This paper explores AI’s evolution and impact in the public sector, focusing on applications and strategic frameworks using Estonia as an example—a pioneer in AI governance within the EU. Estonia’s approach serves as a model for Georgia, a country with post-Soviet roots and EU integration aspirations. By examining Estonia’s National AI Strategy and its implementation, this paper identifies key lessons and recommendations for Georgia to develop its tailored strategy.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Public Sector, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Estonia, and Georgia
52. The Weimar Triangle's Path to Leadership Moments and Future Prospects
- Author:
- Nino Macharashvili
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- In two separate speeches—one at the Sorbonne University in April and the other during his visit to Germany at the end of May—French President Emmanuel Macron said that Europe is “fighting to the death” (Macron 2024). Indeed, Europeans who are caught between Xi Jinping’s China, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and the future possibility of Donald Trump’s USA, are the ones who most need unity at this point, but it is precisely because of this sense of insecurity that European unity is eroding. Macron’s last visit to Germany (Scally 2024) showed that Franco-German relations were only a facade manifestation of friendship and solidarity, and that the French and German governments are no longer able to independently decide on the geopolitical direction of Europe. Moreover, even if they can agree on a specific agenda, it is unlikely that it will be shared by the rest of the European Union. The solution to this dilemma is to strengthen the Franco-German union and add Poland as a third member. This makes sense, given that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reduced the differences in the three states’ perceptions of European security, and renewed the Weimar format for collaboration in the interest of peace and security in Europe. In our article, we will try to briefly answer the following questions: 1. What is the Weimar Triangle? 2. What political factors led to its activation? and 3. What changes might it undergo in the future?
- Topic:
- Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Politics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Weimar
- Political Geography:
- Europe
53. Stabilization Policies After the Sahel Coups
- Author:
- Florence Schimmel and Armin Schäfer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The Sahel is increasingly ruled by authoritarian military regimes; co-operation with them towards goals such as stability and peace is becoming more and more difficult for Germany. Following the recent coups in Mali and Niger in particular, the question now is whether and how the previous stabilization policies can be continued. For around ten years, Germany, together with the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, has been pursuing stabilization policies that focus on strengthening fragile governments. In the future, Germany must more clearly define which partners are considered legitimate and which fundamental principles should apply, notwithstanding the high degree of context-specificity.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Coup, and Stabilization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, Germany, Sahel, and United States of America
54. Solving the Double Climate Migration Paradox
- Author:
- Kira Vinke and Mechthild Becker
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Human interference with the environment is fundamentally – and rapidly – reshaping geographies. Therefore, the question of where people will be able to live in safety and prosperity needs reconciling with these diametrically opposed trends: the continued use of fossil fuels, migration deterrence, and labor shortages. PDF Cover of PDF version of DGAP Commentary No. 4 application/pdf206.84 KB Share Discourses on migration and asylum-related issues have become increasingly contested in Western democracies. Anti-migrant rhetoric continues to gain momentum, particularly ahead of elections. This trend could be observed around the 2024 European elections when voters throughout the EU made migration a top priority in their decision-making. Similarly, in the United States, immigration on the southern border has become a deeply contested issue in the upcoming presidential election. “The migrant” has arguably become the scapegoat for economic and social problems in contemporary politics. The UK’s norm-defeating and dysfunctional asylum deal with Rwanda, now terminated, is just one example of how politics feeds such discriminatory narratives. While migration issues have received extensive media coverage and become increasingly politicized, a growing driver of migration has slipped down the list of political priorities: climate change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Migration, Economy, Migration Policy, and Climate Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
55. NATO at 75: Time to Deliver on Its Promises What Has to Happen at the Washington Summit
- Author:
- Karl-Heinz Kamp
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- NATO heads of state and government will meet in Washington on July 11, 2024 to mark the Alliance’s 75th anniversary. Not only will the leaders have to elect a new secretary-general, the anniversary will take place in the midst of an explosive global situation. As the war in Ukraine continues, the prospect of a second presidential term for Donald Trump also worries the Alliance. In order to strengthen NATO’s ability to defend its members in this time of multiple crises, leaders need to advance seven specific topics. Making headway on these could make the summit historic.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe
56. The Impact and Limits of Sanctions on Russia’s Telecoms Industry
- Author:
- Maria Kolomychenko
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The West responded to Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine with unprecedented sanctions targeting its entire tech industry. While the sanctions on the telecoms sector have not had the intended destructive effect on Russia’s war machine, they have created significant negative side effects for its populace. Russian propaganda is using them to reinforce its narrative that “the West is fighting Russian citizens, and Vladimir Putin is protecting them.”
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Sanctions, Economy, Telecommunications, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia
57. Banning YouTube in Russia: Just a Matter of Time
- Author:
- Philipp Dietrich
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- YouTube is the last bastion of free expression and information in Russia, with over 93 million users. A ban on the platform would hurt democratic principles and freedom of speech in the country – and it is not a question of if but when. To prevent the further isolation of Russian society, democratic policymakers must act swiftly by urging Google to cooperate and to bolster YouTube’s infrastructure, as well as by reviewing sanctions.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Social Media, Freedom of Expression, YouTube, and Freedom of Information
- Political Geography:
- Russia
58. The G7’s Geoeconomic Future: Insights from Conflicts with Russia, China, and Iran
- Author:
- Claudia Schmucker, Stormy-Annika Mildner, and Avi Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- In an increasingly conflictual global environment, the G7 has become a more and more important geoeconomic actor. Yet looking at the case studies of Russia, Iran, and China reveals that the geoeconomic role the G7 plays has been mixed. For the G7 countries to improve their geoeconomic impact, they need to align their interests and risk perceptions, as well as improve their ability to propose and enact geoeconomic measures. In addition, the G7 should bolster its partnerships with other democracies and like-minded countries.
- Topic:
- Partnerships, G7, and Geoeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Asia
59. Your Turn, Berlin: A German Strategy for Europe
- Author:
- Josef Janning
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The Zeitenwende has made Europe’s status quo impossible to maintain. Although the imperative of transforming the EU into a geopolitical actor is widely understood, the direction of new policy to achieve that goal is unclear. Europe is not moving so Germany must move Europe. As detailed here, German policymakers must spell out the Europe they want and act to make it a reality, working to overcome disagreement and against resistance from those who prefer to wait things out.
- Topic:
- European Union, Geopolitics, International Order, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
60. The US Presidential Election 2024 – Two Outcomes, One Set of Challenges
- Author:
- Andrew A. Michta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Germany as Europe’s leading economy and the host country to the majority of US legacy military installations on the Continent, continues to lag behind NATO’s eastern flank allies when it comes to rearmament. Berlin’s long-term relations with Washington, as well as its overall ability to influence the direction of Europe’s evolution and the future of NATO will ultimately depend on how it responds to the challenge of rearmament.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, Presidential Elections, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America