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2181. Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balances

Author:
Jane Haltmaier
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Great Financial Crisis coincided with a sizable reduction in global external imbalances, defined as the absolute value of the sum of individual country current account surpluses and deficits relative to global GDP. Although current account balances should not respond to a downturn that is uniform across countries, one that hits countries with current account deficits harder than those with surpluses might result in a decline in the global balance. This paper quantifies the cyclical portion of the current account balance for 35 countries using estimates of the severity of the cycle in each country relative to that of its trading partners in conjunction with three estimates of the sensitivity of the current account balance to changes in the output gap. Two of the estimates are derived from equations linking trade to income and the third is derived from the relationship between changes in current account balances and changes in output gap differentials. The main result is that the bulk of the reduction in the global current account imbalance since 2006 appears to have been structural. Cyclical forces are estimated to account for between 10 and 30 percent of the decline. In the aggregate, the cyclical effect is estimated to be currently holding down the global current account balance by about 1/2 percentage point. However, the size of the cyclical effect is more substantial for some countries. Both surplus and deficit countries have contributed to the decline in the absolute value of the global current account imbalance, but the contribution of the deficit countries is about twice as large as that of the surplus countries. Changes in oil prices have had largely offsetting effects on the global current account balance, but changes in real exchange rates in recent years have contributed to the reduction.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Financial Crisis, GDP, Exchange Rate Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2182. Conflict trade: regulating illicit flows to and from war

Author:
Mark B. Taylor
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This expert analysis note describes an emerging approach to regulating illicit flows of goods to and from conflict zones. The approach, based on norms of national and international law defining business due diligence, is well suited for dilemmas posed by war economies. Due diligence offers the possibility of excluding goods from global flows if they are produced through human rights abuse or used for conflict financing, while at the same time it can limit harm to livelihoods and avoid the wholesale criminalisation of informal economies. To that end, further inter-governmental policy coordination is needed to define conflict financing under international law and to elaborate an effective regulatory strategy.
Topic:
International Law, Law, Regulation, Trade, Armed Conflict, Supply Chains, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2183. Distinguishing between exploitative and non-exploitative sex involving UN peacekeepers: the wrongs of “zero tolerance”

Author:
Olivera Simić
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The links between the presence of peacekeepers and the sexual exploitation and abuse of women have been documented across peace support operations (PSOs). This expert analysis critically analyses the United Nations secretary general’s Bulletin on Special Measures for Protection from Sexual Exploitation and Sexual Abuse, which was promulgated in 2003 to address the problem of sexual exploitation and abuse in the context of PSOs. The expert analysis is concerned with the broad definition of sexual exploitation provided by the bulletin, which includes most sexual relationships and prostitution. It concludes that the bulletin’s definition of sexual exploitation is over inclusive in its “strong discouragement” of sexual relationships and prohibition of prostitution regardless of consent, age and fair remuneration. It argues that, as currently formulated, the bulletin undermines women’s agency and sexual autonomy, and blurs important distinctions between consensual sex and sexual offences. The bulletin thus relies on and perpetuates negative gender stereotypes and imperial hierarchies and, consequently, encourages stigma and discrimination. It casts women as victims and peacekeepers as sexual predators who cannot treat women as equals.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Sexual Exploitation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2184. Challenges facing the Colombian peace negotiations

Author:
Jorge Orlando Melo
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Peace negotiations between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) started in 2012 and have advanced slowly but surely. The rules of procedure – no ceasefire, extreme confidentiality on the discussions, a limited agenda, direct negotiations without civil society participation or international mediation – have helped to isolated the talks from the pressures of everyday reality. In May 2013 the parties announced an agreement on point 1 of the agenda, which deals with the land problem. Negotiations on point 2 – the political participation of the guerrillas – started in July 2013. Four further points have to be discussed: the drugs business, the end of armed conflict, justice and compensation for victims, and the procedures for implementing the agreement. Both sides have used peace negotiations to build up their political image. The FARC, besides supporting or promoting social protests of coca-growing peasants, miners, and other groups with social grievances, has made some proposals not in the agenda, such as the convening of a constitutional assembly or a general reform of the state, but has shown flexibility and for the moment has withdrawn most of these proposals. The negotiations will last longer than previously announced, but both sides have good reasons to maintain them beyond the March 2014 elections, provided that progress is made and there are no extreme provocations by the FARC.
Topic:
Negotiation, FARC, Dialogue, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

2185. A fragile cold peace: the impact of the Syrian conflict on Israeli-Syrian relations

Author:
Cathrine Thorleifsson
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The unfolding Syrian crisis is threatening to end 40 years of cold peace between Syria and Israel. Exchanges of fire between Israeli and Syrian troops, coupled with fear of a new Islamist front, have led Israel to strengthen its military presence in the Golan Heights. Syria’s alliance with Iran and Hizbullah and Israel’s unilateral attacks on military facilities inside Syria have heightened tensions between the two countries. Through their actions and mutual politics of fear Israel and Syria are moving out of a cold peace situation. However, the pressured Syrian regime and its allies are too occupied by the civil war to open a new front. For Israel, a prolonged conflict in Syria could be advantageous because it will weaken its enemies and provide time to forge new strategic alliances with Sunni Arab states.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Syrian War, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Golan Heights

2186. Egypt’s Political Reset

Author:
POMEPS
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
How should analysts understand the combination of the June 30 massive popular mobilization and the July 3 military coup against then-President Mohamed Morsi? Should these events be understood as a continuation of the January 25 revolution, a second revolution, a straightforward military coup, or a restoration of the Mubarak-era order? Does the blame for the failure of Egypt’s first popularly elected presidency lie with Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, with a recalcitrant opposition, with a resistant state, or with the deep problems which any transitional leadership would have confronted? Can a pathway toward a democratic order still be found?
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Egypt

2187. Yemen’s National Dialogue

Author:
POMEPS
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Yemen began its long-awaited National Dialogue Conference this week in Sanaa. The NDC hoped to find some zone of consensus for moving forward in its transition from the long rule of Ali Abdullah Saleh. It has been beset by many problems of representation, withdrawals and boycotts, deeply entrenched divisions, and the perception of irrelevance to the real problems of Yemenis. For a while it looked like it might never actually convene.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Yemen

2188. Security Matters

Author:
Centre for European Security Studies
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
In 2012 CESS conducted a range of activities in Turkey in the framework of the “Good Governance of the Security Sector in Turkey” programme: In March we organised a conference and a follow-up training course in Ankara on Financial Accountability and Budgetary Transparency of the Security Sector. During these events we discussed the main procedures in reviewing defence budgets and particular attention was dedicated to the role of the Court of Accounts. It became clear during the proceedings of both events that despite the fact that changes have been made for the better in Turkey with regard to financial oversight of the security sector, most of these changes unfortunately are only made on paper and are still not put into practice. The auditing process clearly lacks key mechanisms that would make the military more accountable. Therefore the Court of Accounts still has no real leverage over the military in terms of auditing defence spending.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2189. Serbia-Kosovo Agree to Normalize Relations, Now to “Normalize” Society

Author:
Charles Cadwell
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The prime ministers of Kosovo and of Serbia initialed an agreement Friday to normalize relations between their two countries. This accomplishment—at the last hour and under the careful and forceful leadership of the EU’s Catherine Ashton—does not, by itself, reconcile the long-standing enmity between neighbors in Kosovo, a territory now recognized by 90 countries as a nation. The devil is in the implementation details yet to be worked out.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Negotiation, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

2190. What Will "Our Turn to Eat" Mean the Day After the Kenyan Elections?

Author:
Charles Cadwell
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
All eyes are on Kenya today as some 14 million citizens are expected to vote for an array of candidates for president and other offices. The world hopes to avoid a repeat of the post-election violence in late 2007 and early 2008 that killed some 1,500 people and created as many as 600,000 refugees, a trauma that lingers even five years later. Indeed, one candidate and his running mate are under indictment at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for their role in the 2008 violence. Nonetheless, at a rally last weekend, six presidential candidates held hands and committed to accept the results of the vote. While there are reports of scattered pre-election violence, most observers do not expect a repeat of the last cycle’s mayhem. In this circumstance, it’s easy to lose sight of the dramatic changes in Kenya’s political and governmental structure that take place tomorrow. These elections launch an entirely new constitutional arrangement for Kenya.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Constitution, and Transition
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa