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902. Beyond COVID-19: Global Priorities Against Future Contagion
- Author:
- Jose Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Given the credible threat of disease re-emergence and evolution, governments today should allocate resources to preventing future novel diseases, even as they face ‘wartime conditions’ in battling COVID-19.
- Topic:
- Government, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and Global Focus
903. COVID-19: Is the Humanitarian Sector Prepared?
- Author:
- Lina Gong
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- An outpouring of international humanitarian aid to China has alleviated the severe shortage of key medical supplies in its fight against an outbreak of COVID-19. This highlights the role humanitarian aid plays in managing the risk of pandemics.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
904. Women in Global Governance: Never Ending Fight for Equality?
- Author:
- Tamara Nair
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite the numerous accomplishments of women in the global arena there still exists a void in global governance; this demands to be filled by greater ‘gender analysis’ and ‘gender mainstreaming’. Are these calls justified or are they merely the pursuits of particular interests?
- Topic:
- Governance, Women, Peace, and Equality
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
905. The Burden of COVID-19: Urgent Need for Social Safety Nets
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The lockdown policies to fight COVID-19 have caused massive economic disruptions, seriously affecting poorer income groups that live on a hand-to-mouth existence. Policies to keep countries safe from pandemics must come with clear and timely social safety net programmes to protect these vulnerable groups.
- Topic:
- Income Inequality, Social Services, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
906. COVID-19 & Humanitarian Response: Leave No-One Behind
- Author:
- Alistair D.B. Cook
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- As more countries become affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to keep in mind vulnerable groups and those already affected by other humanitarian emergencies such as conflicts, disasters and climate change placing them in acutely precarious situations
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
907. Nuclear Technology & Disease Prevention: What ASEAN Can Do
- Author:
- Julius Caesar Trajano
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Many countries are still struggling to expand their testing capability to diagnose more potential COVID-19 patients amidst shortage of detection kits. A nuclear-derived detection technique recently developed by the IAEA may be a promising method if more widely used by governments around the world. This highlights the peaceful application of nuclear science in public health.
- Topic:
- Pandemic, COVID-19, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
908. COVID-19: Its Impact on Food Sufficiency
- Author:
- Paul Teng
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- While COVID-19 has focused attention on the immediate danger of food shortages, it behooves small island states like Singapore to continue efforts to develop more stable and sustainable food sources. And to put in place public outreach programmes which inform on food and nutrition security.
- Topic:
- Security, Food, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Malaysia, Singapore, and Southeast Asia
909. COVID-19: Private Sector’s Role in Times of Crisis
- Author:
- Christopher Chen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- While people usually rely on the state in times of crisis, the scale and significance of the COVID-19 pandemic necessitates a more inclusive global response. Can the private sector step in to fill existing gaps in the current response?
- Topic:
- Crisis Management, Private Sector, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
910. Migrant Domestic Workers: Their COVID-19 Burdens
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Migrant workers, especially those doing domestic work, cannot be ignored in the fight against COVID-19. The measures taken to contain the virus spread have left them even more vulnerable. But this may be an opportunity for a fresh look at providing for their protection.
- Topic:
- Pandemic, COVID-19, and Migrant Workers
- Political Geography:
- Philippines, Hong Kong, and Global Focus
911. COVID-19 and Global Health Diplomacy: Can Asia Rise to the Challenge?
- Author:
- Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Averting the catastrophic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic requires no less than a coordinated and effective global response with the participation of all actors at multiple levels of governance. Asia must seize the opportunity to define its role in this endeavour.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Health, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
912. Youth in MENA: Findings from the Fifth Wave of the Arab Barometer
- Author:
- Amaney Jamal, Michael Robbins, and Salma Al-Shami
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Youth economic frustration across MENA is increasing ▶ Youth have little trust in governments, which are widely viewed as being corrupt, leading to a potential crisis of legitimacy in the region ▶ However, views of youth differ relatively little from older generations in this regard ▶ Youth are more likely to want to emigrate and to participate in informal politics ▶ Arab publics, including youth, generally affirm women’s equal rights but less accepting of their equal roles in society
- Topic:
- Corruption, Human Rights, Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Women, Democracy, and Youth
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
913. The Novel Coronavirus Outbreak and Its Political/Economic Impact on China
- Author:
- Li Hao
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- As of March 9, 2020, instances of pneumonia attributable to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) have appeared in more than 100 countries; more than 80,000 persons have been infected in China, of whom over 3,000 have died. These infections have spread to Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran and elsewhere, devastating global exchange and economic activity. This paper offers a brief examination of the political and economic impact of this outbreak on China.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Global Focus
914. The Demise of the Two-State Solution: The Realities Trump's Peace Plan Will Create
- Author:
- Ryoji Tateyama
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- At the end of January, US President Trump announced a Middle East peace proposal that he himself lauded as "the deal of the century". The introduction to this peace proposal called "A Vision for Peace" stresses that it would "create a realistic two-state solution" because it addresses "today's realities" surrounding the Palestinian issue. However, the nature of this proposal differs greatly from two-state solutions previously pursued by the US and the international community as a whole. Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) signed the Oslo Accord in September 1993. The concept underlying that accord was a two-state solution in which an independent Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem would be established in the West Bank of the Jordan River (hereinafter, "the West Bank") and the Gaza Stripboth of which have been occupied by Israel since the 1967 Arab-Israeli War and would co-exist with Israel. Circumstances in the West Bank and Gaza have changed greatly over the past 27 years, however, and the prospects for a two-state solution have mostly perished. In that sense, the Trump peace plan can be said to have struck the final fatal blow that killed the two-state solution.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
915. The Coronavirus Blame Game Intensifies the US-China Information War for International Public Opinion
- Author:
- Kyoko Kuwahara
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The hardening of US attitudes toward China's exercise of sharp power in recent years has been dramatic. As a result, China's sharp power has been eliminated from the US, and the confrontational structure between the US and China has shifted from a "US-China trade war" to a "political war" or "information war". Since the beginning of 2020, the two superpowers have engaged in verbal warfare over responses to the new coronavirus. Whenever the US criticizes China, China shifts the blame to the US, and they use the media to restrain each other. Now the US and China are fighting against the new coronavirus even as they also waging a "propaganda war" against each other.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
916. The Impacts of the New Coronavirus Pandemic on the Global Economy: A Nontechnical Summary
- Author:
- Kensuke Yanagida
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- As of April 5, 2020, there are 177 countries/regions confirming cases of new coronavirus infections (COVID-19), making this an unprecedented pandemic. With the number of infected people increasing and medical systems under severe pressure, measures such as lockdowns and border restrictions have been tightly imposed in most countries/regions. As a result, economic activities in both production and consumption have been temporarily halted. Indeed, the pandemic is creating a situation that is simultaneously freezing the global economy. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that the impact of the Corona Shock on the global economy could be "far worse" than that of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis (also known as the Lehman Shock). How much impact will the unprecedented pandemic have on the global economy? In this paper, the author will quantitatively analyze the impact of the Corona Shock using an applied general equilibrium model (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)). The estimation results show that the longer the COVID-19 outbreak continues and the greater the spread of infections, the greater the negative impact on the global economy. The impact is forecast to be at or even above the level of the Lehman Shock.
- Topic:
- Economy, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
917. The Spread of the Novel Coronavirus Infection in Russia and the Government's Countermeasures
- Author:
- Hironori Fushita
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in Russia has been slower than in other European countries, but the number of infected people has surged since late March, especially in Moscow, and has exploded since April. As of April 14, the number of people infected with the novel coronavirus in Russia was 201,122 (up 2,774 from the previous day), with 1,694 recovering and 170 dead1. The following article will provide an overview of the spread of the novel coronavirus infection in Russia and the government's countermeasures, as well as the impact of this infection on the future of Russian politics
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Governance, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Eurasia
918. U.S. Dynamic Force Employment and the Pandemic: Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance
- Author:
- Tetsuo Kotani
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- "We're not at war. Sailors don't need to die," wrote the captain of the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, which was infected with the novel coronavirus while on a mission at sea in March, in a letter to the Navy's leadership asking for permission to isolate the bulk of his roughly 5,000 crew members on shore. The U.S. Navy dismissed the captain for unnecessarily spreading the sensitive letter, while more than 1,000 crew members, including the captain himself, have been confirmed infected and one has died. In the meantime, the acting chief of the Navy, who had inappropriately criticized the dismissed captain, was forced to resign, and the command and control of the military has been brought into question in the midst of the pandemic of COVID-19.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Armed Forces, Alliance, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
919. The Novel Coronavirus Outbreak and Its Political/Economic Impact on China (Continued)
- Author:
- Li Hao
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The author released a short paper in early March 2020 on China's reaction to the spread of novel coronavirus infections, but circumstances have since progressed to a new stage. A pandemic of historic proportions has broken out, and the spread of infections has been relentless even in the Western countries that initially looked upon China coolly. The numbers of infections and deaths in the US in particular have significantly surpassed those in China, making the US the most infected country in the world. At the same time, China continues to contain the spread of infections, and appears to be moving toward resuming economic activities. Nevertheless, there are numerous issues that still need to be addressed. This paper will briefly examine the novel coronavirus situation in China since March.
- Topic:
- Politics, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
920. Coronavirus Crisis Accelerating Reconsideration of Supply Chains
- Author:
- Yoshiaki Takayama
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, international interdependence is changing. The current international political situation, characterized by harsh power politics, and the current state of the international economy, in which states with different values are economically connected, are leading to reconsideration of international supply chains. Understanding international supply chains is extremely important in looking at the prospects for the global political economy. The purpose of this comment is to explore the trends and implications of reconsidering supply chains.
- Topic:
- Politics, Global Political Economy, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
921. China's "Wolf Warrior Diplomacy": The Limitations and Challenges Exposed by the Corona Crisis
- Author:
- Kyoko Kuwahara
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- China has seen its image in the US and other countries worsen due to its slow initial responses to the novel coronavirus and its failure to disclose sufficient information. Meanwhile, China has been trumpeting its success in containing the coronavirus and pursuing "mask diplomacy" by sending medical supplies and teams of doctors to countries around the world in a frantic effort to rehabilitate its image. A glimpse of the desperation with which China is seeking to comport itself as a world leader can be seen in the facts that a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman has used her own account on Twitter, inaccessible to the Chinese public at large, to appeal to public opinion in other countries, and that President Xi Jinping himself has engaged in a telephone offensive with the leaders of other countries.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Public Opinion, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
922. China's Situation after the National People's Congress
- Author:
- Li Hao
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The National People's Congress (NPC) was held in China from May 22 to 28. The 2020 NPC, originally scheduled to open on March 5 as usual, was postponed due to the novel coronavirus outbreak. No new date was announced at the time of postponement and, despite rumours of a meeting in late March or mid-April, in the end it was not held until late May. The session was shorter than usual, and participants underwent PCR testing. Most delegates attended the opening ceremony wearing masks, but the NPC leadership and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Politburo members seated in the two front rows did not wear masks. Before this year's NPC got underway, the key agenda items were whether to declare victory in the battle against the coronavirus and what economic growth targets to establish. However, other issues not initially anticipated, such as the introduction of the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law, also came to garner attention. This paper briefly reviews and analyses issues that were the focus of deliberations at the NPC.
- Topic:
- Government, Economic Growth, Domestic Politics, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
923. The Two Disruptions Rocking the US
- Author:
- Naoko Funatsu
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The US is currently being rocked by two disruptions: the spread of novel coronavirus infections and the systemic racism deeply rooted in American society. These two disruptions have once again brought into relief the divisions that have long existed at all levels in the US. With society facing such major disturbances, both coronavirus countermeasures and racial discrimination have become politicized, and divisions in the US stemming from the partisan divide as well as President Trump's words and actions have become increasingly serious, amplifying the social turmoil.
- Topic:
- COVID-19, Polarization, Society, and Racism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
924. Entry into Force of the TPNW: Challenges for Revitalizing Nuclear Disarmament
- Author:
- Hirofumi Tosaki
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- On October 24, 2020, Hondulas deposited its instrument of ratification of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), bringing the number of countries that have ratified the treaty to over 50. In accordance with Article 15, the Treaty will thus enter into force 90 days later, that is, on January 22, 2021. The TPNW, which was adopted at the UN General Asembly in July 2017 with the approval of 122 countries, is the first treaty on nuclear weapons to prohibit its States Parties to (a) develop, test, produce, manufacture, acquire, possess, or stockpile, (b) transfer, (c) receive, (d) use or threaten to use, (e) assist, encourage, or induce anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party, (f) seek or receive any assistance from anyone, to engage in any activities prohibited to a State Party, and (g) allow any stationing, installation, or deployment of nuclear weapons (Article 1). Considering the enthusiasm of the proponent countries and NGOs, including the International Campaign for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), at the time of the adoption of the TPNW, it looks to have taken some time for the Treaty to come into effect. In addition, at the time of writing, the signatories were limited to 84 countries. Furthermore, Sweden and Switzerland, both of which voted in favor of its adoption, have stated their intentions not to sign the Treaty at present. Nevertheless, given the challenging situation surrounding nuclear disarmament, including the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the difficulty of extending the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), proponents of the TPNW are exploring ways of using this opportunity of its entry into force to increase the number of States Parties and reinvigorate international and domestic public opinion.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Disarmament
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
925. Abraham Accords and Camp David Accords: Rethinking the Trajectories of the 'Arab Cause'
- Author:
- Yuko Ido
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- On September 15, 2020, a joint statement was issued in Washington concerning Israeli peace agreements with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain (The Abraham Accords Declaration). These agreements brought to four the number of Arab nations that have official diplomatic relations with Israel, the first two being Egypt (since 1979) and Jordan (since 1994)1. US President Trump himself praised these as "historic agreements"; however, there was no Palestinian representative at this celebration. These agreements mainly focus on strengthening economic and security relations among the participating countries, and they have encountered both supporting and opposing views within the international community. In particular, Iran and Turkey, which are at odds with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the region, have strongly criticized the agreements, saying they run counter to resolving the Palestinian Question. Many readers might recall the Camp David Accords of about 40 years ago that led to the first peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. Let us now compare the two peace efforts and consider what the meaning of the 'Arab Cause' has been.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and United States of America
926. How Property and Civil Rights Help Forest Tribes Modernize and Prosper: Lessons from India
- Author:
- Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar and Neeraj Kaushal
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Do historically isolated forest tribes need protection from modernization? Critics claim that modernization, especially through dams and mining, is disastrous for tribes and that tribespeople cannot handle commercial life, are easily duped, and end up destitute. Some modernization projects have fueled Maoist insurrections. However, other examples show that tribes can join mainstream society and prosper if empowered with property rights and civil rights.
- Topic:
- Civil Rights, Modernization, Property, Tribes, and Forest
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
927. Qualified Immunity: A Legal, Practical, and Moral Failure
- Author:
- Jay Schweikert
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Qualified immunity is a judicial doctrine that protects public officials from liability, even when they break the law. The doctrine has no valid legal basis, it regularly denies justice to victims whose rights have been violated, and it severely undermines official accountability, especially for members of law enforcement. Accountability is an absolute necessity for meaningful criminal justice reform, and any attempt to provide greater accountability must confront the doctrine of qualified immunity. This judicial doctrine, invented by the Supreme Court in the 1960s, protects state and local officials from liability, even when they act unlawfully, so long as their actions do not violate “clearly established law.” In practice, this legal standard is a huge hurdle for civil rights plaintiffs because it generally requires them to identify not just a clear legal rule but a prior case with functionally identical facts.
- Topic:
- Law, Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, Police, and Qualified Immunity
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
928. Despite Modi, India Has Not Yet Become a Hindu Authoritarian State
- Author:
- Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Indian democracy is flawed, but pessimists claiming that Modi will crush all dissent, abandon secularism, and make India a Hindu state have been proved wrong. India’s constitution guarantees democracy, civil liberties, and secularism. But fears of India becoming a Hindu authoritarian state have been voiced after Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power in New Delhi in 2014. The party’s Hindutva philosophy—the creation of a great Hindu state—envisages a Hindu state where citizens with other religious beliefs are tolerated but have second‐class status. It lauds military toughness. Earlier governments were reluctant to retaliate militarily against Pakistan for fomenting terrorism in Kashmir, but Modi has responded twice with military strikes, gaining popularity as a strongman. In Muslim‐majority Kashmir, which is claimed by Pakistan, Modi has abolished the state’s constitutionally guaranteed autonomy, arrested top local politicians and activists, and locked down the state. Meanwhile, a Pew Research Poll in 2017 suggested that most Indians would support military or authoritarian rule.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Hinduism, and Narendra Modi
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, and India
929. Space Force: Ahead of Its Time, or Dreadfully Premature?
- Author:
- Claire Farley
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In December 2019, Congress established the U.S. Space Force as an independent uniformed military service within the Department of the Air Force. Although many defense analysts had long argued for a reorganization of the Department of Defense’s space capabilities, few had settled on this particular solution. This policy analysis evaluates the reasoning behind the Space Force’s establishment, concluding that the service’s creation is premature. The Space Force is the first new independent U.S. service since the creation of the Air Force in 1947. At its inception, the Air Force had hundreds of thousands of personnel, several years of battle experience, a coherent body of doctrine, and a robust organizational culture. Even so, the creation of the Air Force sparked bitter interservice conflict for the first decade of its existence. However, the Space Force lacks a strong institutional basis, an identifiable organizational culture, and an established foundation of strategic theory. In the short term, it runs the risk of disrupting existing procedures and relationships that enable the U.S. military to function. In the long term, it runs the risk of distorting the procurement and force structure of U.S. space capabilities.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Space Force
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
930. COVID-19 and the U.S. Fiscal Imbalance
- Author:
- Jeffrey Miron
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Policymakers must do something to slow the growing debt burden or else face a major fiscal meltdown. Proposals such as Medicare for All and the Green New Deal would only make the looming fiscal crisis worse. Before COVID-19, the U.S. debt burden was large and on an unsustainable path under reasonable assumptions about economic fundamentals. Standard policy responses, such as higher taxes or lower discretionary spending, could not substantially slow the growth of the U.S. debt burden; only reduced growth in entitlement spending, especially on Medicare, had the potential to avoid eventual fiscal default. COVID-19, the ensuing recession, and the subsequent policy responses have all increased U.S. deficits substantially, potentially altering these conclusions. But these events are likely to be temporary and may be partially offset by other demographic and economic changes related to COVID-19. As a result, the pandemic did not substantially alter the projected path of the U.S. fiscal imbalance. That bit of good news does not alter the grim long‐term U.S. fiscal outlook. The most effective way to slow the growth of the debt burden is to cut entitlement spending substantially.
- Topic:
- Debt, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Fiscal Deficit
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
931. Demanding the Future: Navigating the Pacific's Youth Bulge
- Author:
- Catherine Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- High population growth is driving a rapid increase in the proportion of young people in Pacific Island countries, with half the region's population aged under 23. This 'youth bulge' is particularly acute in Melanesian states and will have a major impact on every area of development in the region in the coming decades. Economic prosperity, political success and social stability in the Pacific Islands region in the future will depend on harnessing this demographic dividend and preventing youth marginalisation and disillusionment. Urgent and coordinated national and regional responses should include addressing pressing health problems, expanding Australia's seasonal worker scheme, increasing migration pathways, and targeted skills and employment programs.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, Migration, Politics, Employment, Youth, Population Growth, and Marginalization
- Political Geography:
- Melanesia and Pacific Ocean
932. Global Order in the Shadow of the Coronavirus: China, Russia and the West
- Author:
- Bobo Lo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the dismal state of global governance. The rules-based order has given way to a new world disorder, dominated by narrow self-interest. The crisis of the liberal order reflects a collective Western failure to live up to its principles. The actions of Donald Trump have damaged the moral authority of the West. There is a future for liberalism in global governance, but on a more inclusive and less antagonistic basis. The primary focus must be on meeting universal challenges, such as climate change, pandemic disease, and global poverty.
- Topic:
- Coronavirus, Pandemic, COVID-19, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia
933. The Costs of Covid: Australia’s Economic Prospects in a Wounded World
- Author:
- John Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Despite Victoria’s second wave of infection, Australia’s economic recovery from the coronavirus is underway. The bitter aftermath includes high and rising unemployment, vastly increased government debt, and a markedly less congenial global economy. Though formidable, the fiscal challenge is well within Australia’s means, especially if the Reserve Bank remains willing to acquire and hold Australian government debt. It may need to do so anyway to suppress an unwelcome appreciation of the Australian dollar in a world where major central banks are committed to low long term interest rates. Australia’s increasing integration into the East Asia economic community offsets the drag from the major advanced economies, but the US–China quarrel and the dislocation of global trading and investment relationships it threatens heightens the tension between Australia’s economic and security choices.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economy, Fiscal Policy, Unemployment, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Australia, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
934. The Australia–India Strategic Partnership: Accelerating Security Cooperation in the Indo–Pacific
- Author:
- Dhruva Jaishankar
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- India and Australia have successfully managed to overcome prior inhibitions about security cooperation. Since 2000, the two countries have significantly improved their strategic coordination, military interoperability, and maritime cooperation, motivated by China’s rise and behaviour, faltering regional security institutions, and uncertainty about the United States’ role. Today, India–Australia security relations comprise regular military exercises, professional exchanges, operational coordination, and nascent defence technology cooperation. But the two countries’ different capabilities, priorities, and strategic circumstances will have to be overcome if relations are to deepen. Future priorities should include institutionalising bilateral and multilateral coordination mechanisms, improving military interoperability, deepening defence technology collaboration, and broadening relations to give ballast to the security relationship.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- China, India, Australia, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
935. The Point of No Return: The 2020 Election and the Crisis of American Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Thomas Wright
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- With the international order weakened by COVID-19, economic recession, and receding American leadership, the 2020 presidential election will be even more consequential than that of 2016. There is no reason to believe that President Trump will follow in the tradition of other Republican presidents and pursue a more multilateral and cooperative strategy in his second term. Emboldened and unconstrained, a second Trump administration could spell the end of the alliance system and the postwar liberal international order. A Biden administration would be a reprieve for the US-led international order, and will act on climate change, COVID-19, immigration, and multilateralism, while Biden will need to adjudicate internal debates on China, the Middle East, globalisation, and foreign economic policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Globalization, Elections, Economic Policy, Donald Trump, COVID-19, International Order, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and United States of America
936. Digital Authoritarianism, China and C0VID
- Author:
- Lydia Khalil
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has emboldened Beijing to expand its use of digital technologies in the name of public health and safety. From mass surveillance, tracking intelligence, and internet censorship to the use of social credit systems, augmented data-collection capabilities, and big data, China’s new normal exposes and expands encroachments on civil liberties. The pandemic has provided a ‘proof of concept’, but China’s actions in the new digital landscape extend beyond managing its own pandemic response and controlling its own citizens. China is aggressively pursuing global technological dominance by investing in its indigenous tech sector and exporting technological surveillance tools. The reach of Chinese-engineered and monitored social control systems has wide-ranging implications, with current pandemic conditions serving as the justification for a significant increase in state surveillance, the adoption of digital authoritarian tools, and the deterioration of privacy and civil liberties.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Intelligence, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Surveillance, COVID-19, Civil Liberties, and Social Control
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
937. Reflections On The U.S.–Mexico Relationship
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández served as Mexico’s Ambassador to the United States (2017-2018). He played a prominent role in the negotiation of the United States of America, Mexico and Canada Agreement (USMCA). Currently, he is managing partner of BEEL Infrastructure, a specialized advisory & asset management firm focused on the infrastructure sector in Latin America. He also provides strategic advice to businesses and governments on political risk, public affairs and communications and business development; and serves in the Board of Directors of U.S. – Mexico Business Association (AEM) and the Advisory Board of the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute. Brown Journal of World Affairs: During your time as ambassador, the U.S.– Mexico relationship was highly politicized due to President Trump’s rhetoric. How did you navigate balancing between building a relationship with the U.S. government and standing up for your country?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Immigration, NAFTA, and USMCA
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, and Mexico
938. The ICRC’s Changing Role In International Humanitarianism
- Author:
- Peter Maurer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Peter Maurer is the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). This interview was conducted at the beginning of March, before the COVID-19 outbreak had reached pandemic levels. Since that time, the ICRC has been adapt- ing its operations to respond to the disease’s impacts in conflict-affected countries. President Maurer wrote about his concerns for vulnerable populations in an opinion column in The Guardian, published 27 March 2020.
- Topic:
- Health, Humanitarian Aid, Humanitarian Intervention, Violence, Civilians, Medicine, Red Cross, and ICRC
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
939. The Future Of Microfinance
- Author:
- Muhammad Yunus
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Muhammad Yunus is an economist and the founder of Grameen Bank, which provides microcredit to the impoverished without requiring collateral. Yunus and Grameen were awarded the Noble Peace Prize in 2006.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Capitalism, Finance, and Microcredit
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
940. The Economic Impact of McCarran (Las Vegas) Airport
- Author:
- Oxford Economics
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- McCarran and its sister airports bring widespread benefit to the Las Vegas region. Oxford Economics found that 25% of all jobs in the region are supported by airport operations and that the benefit is widespread. For example, passengers arriving by air support over 115,000 jobs in the hospitality and leisure industry and 11,000 jobs in manufacturing and related activities are supported by cargo operations. Just as importantly, direct access from McCarran to global markets help Las Vegas diversify its economy and attract new companies to the region.
- Topic:
- Economics, Tourism, Job Creation, and Travel
- Political Geography:
- North America, United States of America, and Las Vegas
941. Levant Illicit Tobacco 2019
- Author:
- Oxford Economics
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- This report provides an overview of the nature of illicit trade in cigarettes across three markets in the Levant region: Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon. It establishes estimates of Illicit Consumption in each market and the impact it has on government tax revenue.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Finance, and Illegal Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan
942. The Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Asia-Pacific
- Author:
- Oxford Economics
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- In this report, Oxford Economics looks at the impact the COVID-19 pandemic on the economies of Asia-Pacific. We look at the impact of lockdown measures to contain the pandemic in China and other economies in the region, and their toll on business and households. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues around the globe, governments, investors, business and households are beginning to understand the financial and economic costs more clearly. In this report we examine the channels through which COVID-19 has impacted on the economies of the Asia-Pacific region. We explore the economic cost of lockdown measures, particularly so in China, as well as knock-on effects through supply-chains, tourism, and financial markets. We set out our forecasts for an historically-sharp downturn in the first half of 2020, but potential for a rapid recovery starting later this year and into 2021. Finally, we examine a downside scenario, simulated using our Global Economic Model, in which lockdown measures spread globally and the economic cost is even greater than in our baseline forecast.
- Topic:
- Economics, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Asia-Pacific
943. Illicit Cigarette Consumption in Mexico
- Author:
- Oxford Economics
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- This research seeks to quantify the size and scale of the illicit consumption of cigarettes in Mexico, as well as the impact on government revenues, for the most recent 12-month period pre-Coronavirus.
- Topic:
- Economics, Governance, Illegal Trade, and Consumerism
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
944. Digital Services in Europe
- Author:
- Oxford Economics
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- n this study, commissioned by the Computer and Communications Industry Association, we explore the economic and social impacts of digital services in Europe, and identify the actions digital services providers are taking to tackle illegal and harmful content. We conclude by suggesting points for the European Commission to consider as it develops its upcoming Digital Services Act. The rapid growth of digital services has had a transformative impact on daily lives and economic activity across Europe. Much of Europeans’ online activity is enabled by a dynamic and innovative network of online platforms. These sustain jobs and revenues themselves, and support economic activity amongst the ecosystems of businesses and individuals who use them. Even more importantly, digital services enhance economic competitiveness. They reduce barriers to growth for SMEs, enabling them to access infrastructure and customers, and to trade internationally, without making large up-front investments. Digital services also create value for consumers, delivering more choice, convenience and lower prices, and other benefits which are more social in nature. However, the technologies have been misused by some users for purposes which are harmful or illegal. Providers recognise this challenge and have developed a range of individual and collective initiatives to address it.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Digital Economy, Internet, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
945. The Avoidable War: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition (Collection of Speeches by the Hon. Kevin Rudd)
- Author:
- Kevin Rudd
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Throughout the recent 18 months of the U.S.-China trade war, which has landed in a “phase one” deal, and awaits the tackling of more difficult economic elements in phase two negotiations, there has been a slow and steady structural shift in the U.S.-China relationship as it continues to head in a more adversarial direction. Against the backdrop of this drift toward confrontation occurring in the absence of any common strategic understanding or high-level diplomatic mechanism to manage the mounting economic, security, and technological tensions into the future, Asia Society Policy Institute President the Hon. Kevin Rudd brings together a series of speeches delivered during 2019 in the collection, The Avoidable War: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition. This volume works to help make sense of where the U.S.-China relationship is heading in the current period of strategic competition, and follows on from Rudd’s 2018 collection, The Avoidable War: Reflections on U.S.-China Relations and the End of Strategic Engagement. In this new volume, Rudd focuses not only on the bilateral relationship, but also on China's domestic politics, economics, and its strategic vision. But on the bilateral relationship, Rudd writes that while there may be a truce of sorts on the trade front during 2020, that will not be the case across the rest of the economic, political, and security relationship. Challenges will continue in areas such as the future of 5G mobile telecommunications infrastructure, the Belt and Road Initiative, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, allegations of Chinese political influence and interference in foreign countries’ internal democratic processes, and China’s increasingly close strategic collaboration with Russia. Militarily, tensions will continue in the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and the wider Indo-Pacific, together with confrontations less visible to the public eye in espionage, cyber, and space. Against this backdrop, and the steady erosion of diplomatic and political capital in the overall relationship, Rudd asserts that the “2020s loom as a decade of living dangerously in the U.S.-China relationship.” The Avoidable War: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition includes six speeches from 2019 covering a range of critical challenges in the U.S.-China relationship, as well as a December 2019 conversation at the Harvard Kennedy School which begins to outline an approach to managing the growing tinderbox of tensions across the spectrum of the bilateral relationship.
- Topic:
- Security, Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
946. A New Risk to the EU from Coronavirus Viktor Orbán’s Hungary
- Author:
- András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Political leaders could abuse the coronavirus crisis to undermine democracy. Europe’s biggest risk is Hungary. In late March, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán could use his two-thirds majority in parliament to push through a law that would empower him to rule by decrees with no specified time limit. If he succeeds, it will undermine the European Union’s core principles, making the EU even more fragmented and difficult to manage once the pandemic is over.
- Topic:
- Government, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Hungary
947. Moldova in the EU's Eastern Partnership: Lessons of a Decade
- Author:
- Martin Sieg
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- In Moldova, the weakness of the Eastern Partnership has been over-reliance on incentives, rather than a lack thereof. Veto players who hid their true interests by claiming allegiance to the European cause hijacked the EU’s soft power. The EaP’s shortcoming was lack of means and readiness to make these key opponents of political reforms keep their commitments. Its core challenge is how to overcome the resistance of these veto players who have been obstructing transformational goals.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Oligarchy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Moldova, and Eastern Europe
948. Mobilizing the Pacific Diaspora: A Key Component of Disaster Resilience
- Author:
- Siautu Alefaio
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Of all the earth’s regions, the Pacific is one of the most prone to natural disasters. Climate-related disasters such as floods, droughts, and tropical cyclones make the headlines, along with other natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. These may be accompanied by crises in public health. Today, many Pacific Island countries rely heavily on government relief and international aid when they face a disaster. Traditional sources of resilience can still play an important role, however, both within local communities and within the broader diaspora of Pacific communities in Aotearoa-New Zealand, Australia, and the US. A better understanding of Pacific cultures from within and a better recognition of the role of the Pacific diaspora and of churches in Pacific communities would also help improve development efforts and disaster response.
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, and Diaspora
- Political Geography:
- Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
949. Fire and Rain: The Legacy of Hurricane Lane in Hawai'i
- Author:
- Alison D. Nugent, Ryan J. Longman, Clay Trauernicht, Matthew P. Lucas, Henry F. Diaz, and Thomas W. Giambelluca
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Hurricane Lane, which struck the Hawaiian islands on 22–25 August 2018, presented a textbook example of the compounding hazards that can be produced by a single storm. Over a four-day period, the island of Hawaiʻi received an average 17 inches of rainfall. One location received 57 inches, making Hurricane Lane the wettest tropical storm ever recorded in the state and the second wettest ever recorded in the US. At the same time, three wildfires on the island of Maui and one on Oʻahu burned nearly 3,000 acres of abandoned agricultural land. As the global climate warms, the number and strength of hurricanes is expected to increase, both in Hawaiʻi and in the Pacific region generally. A better understanding of the relationship between hurricanes and global climate change is critical in order to predict the vulnerability of people and resources during a severe weather event and to plan an appropriate course of action.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Natural Resources, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- North America, Asia-Pacific, and Hawaii
950. Challenges and Responses to COVID-19: Experience from Asia
- Author:
- Nancy Davis Lewis and Jonathan D. Mayer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Experience in Asia suggests that public health and medical capacity are critical for an effective response to an emerging infectious disease. Political will and previous experience with disease outbreaks also play a role. Singapore ignored an important segment of its population and is now experiencing a huge spike in cases. China and Vietnam were able to enforce draconian measures, while in Japan and Hong Kong, civil society had a greater role in initiating effective controls. In several countries, local political outcomes have been affected by the perceived success or failure of leaders in controlling the crisis.
- Topic:
- Health Care Policy, Leadership, Crisis Management, Public Health, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Hong Kong