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1381. The Impact of a 'No-Deal' Brexit on travel and Tourism

Author:
Simon Kyte, David Goodger, and Helen McDermott
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
A “no-deal” Brexit would cause a 5% drop in UK outbound travel and tourism trips in 2020, because of the stifled economic backdrop and impact of a weaker pound. Ireland and Spain would be the hardest hit from fewer UK visitors. In contrast, the weaker pound could mean that UK tourism inflows are 4% higher in a “no-deal” scenario, provided there is no travel disruption. But lower levels of domestic tourism mean that we would expect UK travel and tourism GDP to be 2% lower than our baseline forecast in 2020.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Tourism, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

1382. Destabilizing Orders: Understanding the Consequences of Neoliberalism

Author:
Jenny Andersson and Olivier Godechot
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
Throughout the long postwar period, crisis was a conjectural phenomenon and the exception in a normalcy of growth and social progress. Many key concepts of the social sciences – indeed, our understanding of democracy, embedded markets, enlightened electorates, benevolent political elites, and problem-solving progressive alliances – seem inapt for understanding today’s societal upheaval. In the wake of the financial crisis of 2008, we have witnessed the breakdown of majority alliances, the return of populism on a grand scale both in the Western world and globally, and the eruption into chaotic and sometimes violent social protests. The forces that underpinned the framework of welfare capitalism seem obsolete in the face of financial and political elites who are paradoxically both disconnected from national territory and sometimes in direct alliance with nationalist and populist movements. Politics of resentment, politics of place, and new politics of class interact in ways that we do not yet understand. Perhaps the greatest paradox of all is that neoliberalism has spawned authoritarianism. At the same time, these processes are not at all new, but must be put in the context of the socioeconomic and cultural cleavages produced by the shift to neoliberalism since the 1970s. The paper presents arguments by leading scholars in economic history, economic sociology, and political economy in brief thinknotes that were prepared for the MaxPo Fifth-Anniversary Conference on January 12 and 13, 2018, in Paris.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Financial Crisis, Inequality, Neoliberalism, and Free Market
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1383. Frontier Justice: A New Approach for U.S. Rule of Law Assistance

Author:
Robert M. Perito and Donald J. Planty
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
United States rule of law assistance is failing to help recipient governments provide good governance, security and justice. This is particularly true in three categories of states in crisis: (1) states that are experiencing extreme levels of organized criminal violence; (2) states where international Islamist terrorism is attempting to impose extreme versions of Shariah law; and (3) states where corrupt authoritarian governments have morphed into kleptocracies. Though conditions have changed in these countries, U.S. rule of law assistance continues to employ a fragmented and technocratic approach to improving foreign criminal justice systems. Dedicated officials, civil society leaders, and concerned citizens in these countries want to establish the rule of law. In many cases, our current assistance does not help them change the prevailing paradigm. What new approaches for U.S. rule of law assistance are required to provide them with the support needed to change the system? In countries threatened by criminal violence, terrorism, and corrupt authoritarian rule, the study found that those working to promote a democratic political process believed rule of law was the essential element in providing good governance, security, and justice. They pointed out that law enforcement authorities and the criminal justice system were primary targets for those seeking to impose despotic regimes. They looked to the United States as a natural ally sharing common values and providing a model of what they can achieve. These individuals confirmed the critical importance of U.S. assistance in preventing further deterioration in the local conditions and to providing any hope that the situation might be improved. In all cases, these activists lamented the fact that U.S. rule of law assistance programs were often not strategically focused, culturally relevant, or adequately resourced. They made clear that more—not less—U.S. help is required to move forward. Indeed, they called for increased use of U.S. political and diplomatic leverage, closer consultations on program selection and development, and more intelligent targeting of financial resources. Whether aimed at establishing justice, enabling economic development, or promoting foreign investment, U.S. rule of law assistance has been a tool of U.S. foreign and national security policy since the end of World War II. The Obama Administration, however, subordinated rule of law programming to assistance for promoting democracy, protecting human rights, and enabling good governance. There also was a sharp drop in the financial resources devoted to aiding the justice sector. Outside of large programs in Iraq and Afghanistan, funding for aid to courts and corrections fell from several billion dollars to $1.9 billion in 2013 to less than $500 million in 2016. At the same time, rule of law assistance became ‘securitized’ with assistance increasingly focused on convicting and incarcerating drug traffickers and terrorists. The study identified other conditions and practices that undermined the effectiveness of U.S. rule of law programming. From the Washington perspective there is no readily knowable number for the total amount the United States spends annually on rule of law assistance, nor is there a common policy, doctrine, strategy, or coordinating mechanism for this aid. Funding is provided from a number of legislative funding sources, allocated to various government departments, and then spread among numerous implementing partners, primarily non- governmental organizations (NGOs) and commercial contractors. Assistance programs militarize civilian security forces and train prosecutors to charge terrorism suspects and jailors to prevent radicalization. Government agencies concerned with the rule of law programming utilize staff with legal and law enforcement backgrounds largely as advisors and rely upon generic program officers to handle program design, funding and program management. As a result, establishing the rule of law is less a tool than an end state that hopefully will result from programs to ensure free elections, fight drug trafficking, and counter violent extremism. In the field, the study found the administration of U.S. rule of law assistance is neither strategically focused nor designed to produce sustainable change. U.S. programs fail to emphasize that state building efforts are political initiatives and not technical exercises. Program funding is not concentrated to achieve objectives and mobilize sufficient local support. In areas where criminals, jihadists, and insurgents operate without respect for national borders, U.S. assistance does not have a regional perspective. Project implementation is also affected by a lack of U.S. government staff with legal and law enforcement backgrounds on the ground and by risk adverse State Department personnel policies that restrict the movement of U.S. officials making it difficult for them to meet with counterparts and visit project sites to access progress.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Legal Theory, Rule of Law, Borders, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1384. Digital payments in transportation can help developing cities drive economic growth

Author:
Ammar A. Malik
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Over the next decade, cities in developing markets will drive global economic expansion. McKinsey predicts that 440 cities in emerging markets will generate half of all growth through 2025. To realize the potential of urbanization, developing cities need to become denser, easier to navigate, and more adept at using data to deliver public services. Inefficient public transit has posed a significant challenge to urban areas around the world. 1.2 billion trips are made using public transit every day, but the share of trips via public transit has declined in developing cities from 35.5 percent in 1995 to 23.7 percent in 2012.
Topic:
Development, Economic Growth, Cities, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1385. Can the private sector help address the global refugee crisis?

Author:
Ammar A. Malik and Janet Malzahn
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
As the global refugee crisis persists, refugees continue to leave war-ravaged countries and increase the strain on the world’s philanthropic sector. Conflicts and instability have expelled more than 68 million men, women, and children from their homes. With widening funding gaps and no resolution in sight, the international humanitarian system must tap into new sources of funding, resources, and expertise to care for the expanding population of displaced people. The private sector can, and should, help address this crisis. By partnering with humanitarian organizations, for-profit companies offer a unique perspective and wealth of resources to help refugees. These socially responsible partnerships, which we've documented and cataloged, engage the private sector in humanitarian efforts by giving them the opportunity to generate gains for their business while also producing value for refugees by joining with mission-driven non-profits. These partnerships are more likely to provide meaningful and ongoing help to refugees if they are profitable for businesses.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Refugee Crisis, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1386. A new funding approach could bring clean water to the world’s poorest households

Author:
Matthew Eldridge and Chloe Hauenstein
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The World Health Organization estimates that more than 2 billion people lack access to safely managed drinking water services. At the current pace, the world will fall short of meeting one of the United Nations’ sustainable development goals (SDGs): to achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all by 2030. Accelerating to meet the SDGs for water and sanitation will cost as much as $166 billion a year for capital expenditures alone. Although critical to global efforts, utilities and municipalities serving the poorest households face three large hurdles, resulting in a funding gap that prevents them from meeting customers’ demand for clean water: They often cannot cover their operational and maintenance costs through existing tariffs and transfers alone. Higher tariffs, without improved service, would create an unsustainable burden for the poorest households, who may prefer not to connect to piped services at all. Operating at a loss, these utilities are not creditworthy and cannot tap private finance to make needed investments.
Topic:
Poverty, World Health Organization, Water, and Funding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1387. Militant Islamist Groups in Africa Show Resiliency over Past Decade

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
A time-lapse review of violent episodes involving militant Islamist groups in African since 2010 provides insights into the evolution of these actors over the course of this decade.
Topic:
Islam and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Africa

1388. Reform and Renewal in Zimbabwe or More of the Same?

Author:
Paul Nantulya
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Multiple possible scenarios could emerge from Zimbabwe’s July 30 polls—the country’s first without Robert Mugabe’s name on the ballot. For now, the military appears intent on leveraging its interests.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Zimbabwe

1389. World Cup Dreams Shape Africa’s National Narratives

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Since Egypt’s appearance in the inaugural 1930 World Cup, African countries’ performance in the tournament has been a source of pride and national identity.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Africa

1390. Overcoming the Democratisation Deficit in the Western Balkans: A Road to (No)Where?

Author:
Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The internal weaknesses of the process of democratisation in the Western Balkans ensue from reinforcing a system where (ethno)politics and (ethno)political entre-preneurs use all available strategies to deprive citizens of any political agency, thus working towards obedient democracies while keeping real political power within closed circles. The conscious deepening of differences, maintaining negative tensions and instrumentalising – predominantly ethnic – identities for political or other particular purposes are some of the crucial features of (ethno)politics in the Western Balkans.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Balkans