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2061. Iran and Arab Spring

Author:
Cenap Çakmak
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
The political actors involved in regional politics in the Middle East were apparently caught unprepared by the events culminating in an Arab Spring. The tectonic shifts and the magnitude of the people’s rise in a very short period of time were the primary reason for the unpreparedness.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Arab Spring, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

2062. Iran’s Nuclear Program and Turkey

Author:
Mustafa Kibaroglu
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Iran has become one of the most important issues of international agenda due to its nuclear program and continues to preserve its importance because of this. The question is how Iran has come to occupy an important place on international agenda? Is Iran pursuing its nuclear program in breach of international treaties or what causes problems are its intentions concerning the use of its nuclear capabilities?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Nuclear Power, Weapons, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

2063. Between TAP and Nabucco: Who is the “WINNER”? Azerbaijan or Russia?

Author:
Ilgar Gurbanov
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Today, every new pipeline changes the market and geopolitics of region. Two months ago, the final decision made by Shah Deniz Consortium, surprised many people. The competition for which pipeline will deliver Azeri gas to Europe is “Almost” over. Although Nabucco-West was strongly and diplomatically supported by European Union and United States, Shah Deniz Consortium opted Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) which will be connected with Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) at Turkish-Greek border. This decision totally paralyzed Nabucco-West pipeline project. Two shareholders of Shah Deniz consortium – BP and Statoil - fully supported TAP. Because, “under agreements signed with TAP during 2012, the Shah Deniz Consortium shareholders BP, SOCAR and Total hold options to acquire a combined 50% of TAP’s shares, thereby contributing to TAP’s construction costs.”
Topic:
Markets, Geopolitics, and Pipeline
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Eurasia, and Azerbaijan

2064. Conflict trade: regulating illicit flows to and from war

Author:
Mark B. Taylor
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This expert analysis note describes an emerging approach to regulating illicit flows of goods to and from conflict zones. The approach, based on norms of national and international law defining business due diligence, is well suited for dilemmas posed by war economies. Due diligence offers the possibility of excluding goods from global flows if they are produced through human rights abuse or used for conflict financing, while at the same time it can limit harm to livelihoods and avoid the wholesale criminalisation of informal economies. To that end, further inter-governmental policy coordination is needed to define conflict financing under international law and to elaborate an effective regulatory strategy.
Topic:
International Law, Law, Regulation, Trade, Armed Conflict, Supply Chains, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2065. Distinguishing between exploitative and non-exploitative sex involving UN peacekeepers: the wrongs of “zero tolerance”

Author:
Olivera Simić
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The links between the presence of peacekeepers and the sexual exploitation and abuse of women have been documented across peace support operations (PSOs). This expert analysis critically analyses the United Nations secretary general’s Bulletin on Special Measures for Protection from Sexual Exploitation and Sexual Abuse, which was promulgated in 2003 to address the problem of sexual exploitation and abuse in the context of PSOs. The expert analysis is concerned with the broad definition of sexual exploitation provided by the bulletin, which includes most sexual relationships and prostitution. It concludes that the bulletin’s definition of sexual exploitation is over inclusive in its “strong discouragement” of sexual relationships and prohibition of prostitution regardless of consent, age and fair remuneration. It argues that, as currently formulated, the bulletin undermines women’s agency and sexual autonomy, and blurs important distinctions between consensual sex and sexual offences. The bulletin thus relies on and perpetuates negative gender stereotypes and imperial hierarchies and, consequently, encourages stigma and discrimination. It casts women as victims and peacekeepers as sexual predators who cannot treat women as equals.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Sexual Exploitation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2066. Challenges facing the Colombian peace negotiations

Author:
Jorge Orlando Melo
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Peace negotiations between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) started in 2012 and have advanced slowly but surely. The rules of procedure – no ceasefire, extreme confidentiality on the discussions, a limited agenda, direct negotiations without civil society participation or international mediation – have helped to isolated the talks from the pressures of everyday reality. In May 2013 the parties announced an agreement on point 1 of the agenda, which deals with the land problem. Negotiations on point 2 – the political participation of the guerrillas – started in July 2013. Four further points have to be discussed: the drugs business, the end of armed conflict, justice and compensation for victims, and the procedures for implementing the agreement. Both sides have used peace negotiations to build up their political image. The FARC, besides supporting or promoting social protests of coca-growing peasants, miners, and other groups with social grievances, has made some proposals not in the agenda, such as the convening of a constitutional assembly or a general reform of the state, but has shown flexibility and for the moment has withdrawn most of these proposals. The negotiations will last longer than previously announced, but both sides have good reasons to maintain them beyond the March 2014 elections, provided that progress is made and there are no extreme provocations by the FARC.
Topic:
Negotiation, FARC, Dialogue, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

2067. A fragile cold peace: the impact of the Syrian conflict on Israeli-Syrian relations

Author:
Cathrine Thorleifsson
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The unfolding Syrian crisis is threatening to end 40 years of cold peace between Syria and Israel. Exchanges of fire between Israeli and Syrian troops, coupled with fear of a new Islamist front, have led Israel to strengthen its military presence in the Golan Heights. Syria’s alliance with Iran and Hizbullah and Israel’s unilateral attacks on military facilities inside Syria have heightened tensions between the two countries. Through their actions and mutual politics of fear Israel and Syria are moving out of a cold peace situation. However, the pressured Syrian regime and its allies are too occupied by the civil war to open a new front. For Israel, a prolonged conflict in Syria could be advantageous because it will weaken its enemies and provide time to forge new strategic alliances with Sunni Arab states.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Syrian War, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Golan Heights

2068. Peace Agreement Drafter's Handbook

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
The Public International Law & Policy Group’s (PILPG) Peace Agreement Drafter’s Handbook is a comprehensive guide on how to draft a peace agreement based upon comparative analysis of more than 60 peace agreements over a period of more than 30 years. This Handbook is intended to assist drafters, mediators, negotiators, and anyone else interested in the substantive and practical contents contained in peace agreements. PILPG designed this Handbook to facilitate drafting peace agreements quickly, efficiently, and effectively. The Handbook does not proffer advice on how to negotiate or otherwise reach an agreement. Rather, the Handbook is designed to facilitate the ability of parties and other actors to translate political agreements into legally-binding treaty language. Emphasis is placed on crafting provisions in such a way as to enhance their full and effective implementation, as well as the durability of the agreement itself. The Handbook sets out the essential components and core elements found in most peace agreements because approximately 60–70 percent of all peace agreements draw on similar components and language. However, every conflict is unique and drafters may have to adjust certain elements to enhance an agreement’s relevancy and applicability to a particular conflict situation or post-conflict environment. Therefore, each chapter should be considered as ad hoc, and reshaping the new agreement to address the nuances of each party’s needs will be necessary. Similarly, the comparative provisions and sample language provided in the Handbook are by no means exclusive, recommended, or mandatory. The purpose of the Handbook is to assist a drafter prepare a well-crafted agreement and enhance the durability of future agreements by drawing upon the best practices from prior agreements. The Handbook consists of several chapters, all of which follow the same basic format. Each chapter focuses on a particular section commonly found in peace agreements, such as ceasefires, economic restructuring, and property restitution. Each chapter first identifies the basic elements in that section of a peace agreement. For instance, in ceasefires, the basic elements include the identification and definition of prohibited acts, separation of forces, and verification, supervision, and monitoring. The primary notes found in each chapter provide a brief overview of a specific element. These elements are then addressed through comparative analysis. The analysis provides for the drafter language found in other peace agreements from which the most relevant to the drafter’s conflict can be selected. Each section then concludes with sample language.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2069. Post-Conflict Constitution Drafter's Handbook

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
The Public International Law & Policy Group’s (PILPG) Post-Conflict Constitution Drafter’s Handbook is intended to assist drafters of constitutions in post-conflict situations. The Handbook draws from PILPG’s experience in facilitating post-conflict constitution drafting processes, as well as comparative state practice, and is based upon analysis of over 150 constitutions from post- conflict and stable states. The Handbook is divided into sixteen chapters, each of which covers a core section in post-conflict constitutions. The chapters include: the Preamble, State Structure and Devolution of Powers, the Executive, the Legislature, the Judiciary, International Legal Obligations, the Electoral System, Financial Matters and the Central Bank, Human Rights, Minority Rights, Women’s Rights, Defense and Security, the Role of Religion, Customary Law, Natural Resources, and Extraordinary Measures. Within each chapter, the Handbook describes core provisions and provides sample language that may be used as a basis for constitutional provisions. In some instances, the Handbook provides several options that the drafter may choose from. The sample language is identified as “Option One” and “Option Two.” In others, the Handbook provides optional language that drafters may include. In those instances the sample language is identified as “Optional.” The intent of this handbook is to provide the drafter with options in structuring constitutional provisions. Since every post-conflict situation is unique, the drafter may change certain elements to enhance the constitution’s relevance and applicability to a particular context. The purpose of the sample language is merely to provide options from ratified constitutions to assist the drafter. The Handbook also contains two annexes. Annex I provides a list all of the constitutions cited in the footnotes and a link to their location on the World Wide Web. Annex II provides a compilation of all the sample language. PILPG is committed to supporting constitution drafters in fulfilling their roles, and, upon request, can provide additional assistance in considering particular provisions and language.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Peacekeeping, Conflict, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2070. Reasons for Russia’s War on Ukraine and its foreseeable consequences on Latin America

Author:
Fernando Petrella
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
1. Is the rise of emerging powers the rise of the "rest" (as Fareed Zakaria has put it) or, the somewhat more intriguing possibility, the rise of the "different"? 2. Is there a chance to build a partnership between the traditional powers - the "western constellation", mainly the G7 countries - and the emerging countries, (the "rest"; the "different"), or can we only hope for a mere "coexistence", as we seem to have today?
Topic:
International Relations, G7, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:
Latin America and Global Focus

2071. Urbanization's Infrastructure Demands at Home and Abroad

Author:
Charles Cadwell
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Jakarta, with a population of 9.5 million (27 million in the greater metropolitan area) has grown 3.6% per year for the past decade, about double the overall Indonesian population growth rate. By 2025, Jakarta will join the list of megacities, with the center city population reaching 10.8 million, according to a 2010 UN report. This next spurt will make Jakarta larger than Moscow and put it on a par with Paris. The proliferation of gleaming office towers that stretch in all directions from downtown is but one measure of dramatic growth. As you might expect, any prospects for continued growth will require dramatic new investment in infrastructure. Gleaming new toll-ways are already clogged, electricity supply, though much more reliable than in the countryside, is reportedly inconsistent. Corruption in public procurement dominates local and national headlines, keeping the national Anti-Corruption Commission more than busy. Financing infrastructure in the years ahead will require both public and private investment, though investors are understandably wary of a policy environment still dominated by money politics, opaque regulatory processes, and slowing reform momentum.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Urbanization, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

2072. Security Matters

Author:
Centre for European Security Studies
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
30 August is Victory Day in Turkey, a national holiday celebrated with military parades and jet fighters painting the sky red and white, the colours of the Turkish flag. Victory Day commemorates the final battle in Turkey’s War of Independence. It glorifies the army and the new republic created on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire. On Victory Day, all promotions of officers are announced, and the students of military schools celebrate their graduation. Besides, the Chief of Turkish General Staff used to receive the congratulations of high state officials. However on 30 August 2011, things were a bit different.
Topic:
International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2073. Beyond Sovereignty: The transformation of the Nation State

Author:
Jody Jensen
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
As interdependence and interconnection on the planet become ever-more apparent, new challenges and conflicts arise for individuals and for the role of government.
Topic:
International Relations, Sovereignty, and State
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2074. Security Matters

Author:
Centre for European Security Studies
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
Natalia Gherman is Moldova’s deputy foreign minister and chief negotiator with the EU. CESS spoke to her in Chis¸ina˘u during the second in a series of UNDP workshops on EU negotiations organised by CESS and its partners. Ms Gherman had just returned from a visit to The Hague and Berlin where she spoke to her colleagues about the visa liberalisation regime, one of the main priorities for Moldova in its relations with the EU.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2075. Security Matters

Author:
Centre for European Security Studies
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
Central Asia presents a broad spectrum of security challenges. These range from religious terrorism, organised crime and simmering ethnic quarrels to endemic corruption, environmental decline and a disintegrating infrastructure. Besides, the danger of instability is heightened by a lurking receptiveness to religious extremism among returned migrants.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2076. Trade, Recovery and Sustainable Economic Growth

Author:
Pascal Lamy
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
Economists have long analysed and helped us understand trade, why nations needed it to prosper, and what governments have to do to reap the gains while managing the costs. The many theories they have developed leave no doubt about the importance of trade to growth and economic development.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Trade, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2077. Security Matters

Author:
Centre for European Security Studies
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
On 12 May we received the news that David Greenwood had passed away. It was expected in a way, but still it came as a shock. David had been suffering from a disease one can fight for some time, but never beat. Although at the end he was very weak and never left home anymore, David was not supposed to leave Margaret and all of us so soon.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2078. How Common is the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the EU: Where does Turkey fit in?

Author:
Ceren Zeynep Ak, Paul Luif, and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This study has been co-authored by Paul Luif from OIIP, Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar and Ceren Zeynep Ak from TESEV. The objective has been to examine the patterns of convergence and/or divergence within the foreign policy orientations of Turkey and the EU as well as among the European Union member states – or to put it more precisely, to look at whether Turkey and the EU are on the same page when considering the foreign policy questions that form the basis of a Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union. This publication looks at the past trends in Foreign Policy decisions with a quantitative research. The research examines the past behavior of Turkey and the EU member states, and finds out that they actually converge more than what is believed. The examined behavior is derived from the voting data in the UN General Assembly over a certain period. This publication also evaluates and compares how much actual convergence existed and exists among the EU member states themselves. The authors show that there is actual convergence between Turkey and the EU member states, and sometimes this convergence is more than the amount of convergence among the EU member states.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, United Nations, and European Union
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2079. Palestinians line up for dwindling cash in Gaza

Author:
Pal Think
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Local banks in Gaza, under pressure from Israeli sanctions, are running out of cash and desperate Palestinians lined up at branches Monday hoping to pull money out of frozen accounts. But most banks have sharply curtailed withdrawals over the past two weeks and some have posted signs telling customers they cannot take out any more money. The U.N. stopped distributing cash handouts to Gaza’s poorest last week. Economists and bank officials are warning that tens of thousands of civil servants will not be able to cash paychecks next month. “No society can operate without money, but that’s the situation we are reaching in Gaza,” said economist Omar Shaban. The Israeli shekel is a widely used currency in the Gaza Strip, and the territory needs at least 400 million shekels, or about $100 million, each month in new currency to replace aging notes and to pay salaries
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Gaza

2080. Security Matters

Author:
Centre for European Security Studies
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
In the second half of 2007 we decided to take the Starlink programme further east and got in touch with the Netherlands Embassy in Astana to investigate possibilities in Kazakhstan. During a fact-finding mission in November 2007 we found that there was a clear need to develop capacity for democratic governance in the security sector of Kazakhstan. The country is engaged in a process of reform that, if successful, will improve oversight of the security agencies, enable the country to fulfil the commitments it undertook in its NATO Individual Partnership Action Plan of 2006, and enhance Kazakhstan’s standing at the OSCE. Kazakhstan will hold the presidency of the OSCE in 2010. It is obvious that Kazakhstan has put in place several of the laws and institutions required for democratic oversight of the security sector, and others are likely to follow. However, Kazakhstan still has some way to go to foster a culture of accountability. Here Starlink training courses will be helpful. The Starlink programme has been included in Kazakhstan’s Individual Partnership Action Plan.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus