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22. Hypotheses on the Implications of the Ukraine-Russia War
- Author:
- Barry R. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Structural realism is a useful tool to examine the implications of the war in Ukraine for global politics. Because structural realism emphasizes the anarchic nature of international relations, it suggests the war is unsurprising, a reminder that states still compete for security, sometimes violently, and the prudent will prepare for it with tools for self-preservation. The realist lens also sees lessons for nuclear deterrence: The prospect of mutual nuclear destruction constrains great power war and has limited U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine. Other states may take note and seek their own nuclear deterrents. The war demonstrates some limits of economic interdependence, which not only failed to pacify Russia, but also left Russia exposed to economic coercion, in a way both it and China may look to avoid in the future. Other important lessons for states from a realist perspective include the importance of military power—large, capable armies and the enduring advantages of defensive warfare, especially when infused with nationalism. The war leaves the “liberal international order,” a byproduct of the eroding post-Cold War U.S. power position, looking threadbare, but it is thus far reviving the U.S. Cold War coalition—a less liberal grouping—which could prove useful in dealing with China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, Sanctions, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine
23. UK Must Engage with Argentina Over Future of Falkland Islands
- Author:
- Carole Concha Bell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- For Argentina, it’s position in the decades-old dispute over the British Overseas Territory remains clear: Las Malvinas son Argentinas.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Argentina, South America, and Falkland Islands
24. Integration with the United States or Latin American Independence?
- Author:
- David Barkin and Alberto Betancourt
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- At the last Community of Latin American and Caribbean States meeting, Mexico’s president proposed contradicting relationships with North America.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Caribbean, North America, Mexico, and United States of America
25. For Hemispheric Unity, a Change in U.S. Foreign Policy is Needed
- Author:
- Brett J. Kyle and Andrew G. Reiter
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the face of a new war in Europe, shoring up support in Latin America will not be as easy as the Biden administration thinks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and War
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Latin America, and United States of America
26. Chavismo in the World
- Author:
- Angelo Rivero Santos and Javier Morales Hernández
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Bolivarian Revolution shook up the geopolitical map. Rebuilding Venezuela’s fractured relations in the hemisphere remains its chief foreign policy challenge.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
27. Armenia-Turkey Normalization Process: Opportunities and Barriers
- Author:
- Nino Chanadiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Armenia-Turkey relations have experienced numerous tensions over the decades associated with both the historic issues between the two nations and contemporary regional developments. Turkey’s refusal to recognize the mass killings of Armenians as a genocide1 in the Ottoman Empire during World War I has long been an important difficulty in bilateral relations. However, relations significantly worsened during the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the 1990s. As a response to Armenia’s capture of the territories surrounding NagornoKarabakh, Turkey closed the border with Armenia in 1993 in support of its ally Azerbaijan.2 The attempts to normalize relations did not have any fruitful outcome in the past decades which resulted in the two countries not having diplomatic or commercial relations for almost 30 years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Armenia
28. Georgia and the Baltics: Relations Amidst the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Nino Chanadiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Georgia and the Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – have a history of friendship that is strengthened through the common Soviet past and shared experiences of Russian influence and violence as well as by the common vision of the contemporary Russian threat towards Eastern Europe. All of this creates the shared desire in these countries to put themselves as far from the Russian sphere of influence as possible. The Baltic states along with Ukraine (and Belarus) are neighbors of Russia and the touch point between Europe and Russia1 while Georgia is located between Russia and Turkey and performs a significant role in linking them. The partnership between Georgia and the Baltic states in terms of decreasing Russian influence in Eastern Europe, as one of the joint aims, requires the cooperation to be on the highest of levels in order for it to be successful. The partnership not only stands on the common past of the four countries but also on their common security visions and shared values which can ultimately contribute to making the partnership stable and long lasting.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Regional Cooperation, and War
- Political Geography:
- Lithuania, Estonia, Georgia, Latvia, and Baltic States
29. NATO-Georgian Relations in the Coming Decades
- Author:
- Irakli Sirbiladze
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- At the 2022 Madrid Summit, NATO unveiled its new Strategic Concept.1 The update of the 2010 Strategic Concept2 was naturally necessitated by the momentous developments seen in the 2010s such as, among others, Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the more outward-looking and ambitiously rising China, Brexit, the election of Donald Trump and its attendant implications for transatlantic relations as well as the election of Joe Biden as the President of the United States and the reinvigoration of the transatlantic and the democracy agenda. The renewal of the Strategic Concept seemed apt amid Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 that put NATO-Russian relations at a historic low. NATO was forced to let go of its desire to forge ‘a true strategic partnership’ with Russia and instead referred to Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to the Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.”3 NATO’s new agenda for 2030 is also full of issues that go beyond the immediate geopolitical challenges. Issues such as climate change, technology, healthcare, space and cyberspace are equally significant for the Alliance’s ability to meet the challenges of the new decade.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus and Georgia
30. Hizballah, Lebanon, and Reconciliation with the Gulf: The Impasse
- Author:
- Carl Yonker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- On February 14, in Beirut’s southern, Hizballah-dominated suburb of Ghobeiry, Bahraini opposition groups marked the anniversary of the 2011 failed popular uprising in Bahrain. The gathering, organized by the Bahraini opposition group al-Wifaq, took place despite the Lebanese interior ministry’s orders to cancel it, which were issued in order to avoid offending Bahrain and its Gulf allies.[1] Lebanese ties with a quartet of Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates – have been at an impasse since October 2021. The diplomatic crisis, which has yet to be resolved, was sparked by Lebanese Information Minister George Kurdahi's critical comments regarding Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen. At its core, however, the crisis in Lebanese-Gulf relations is a dispute over Hizballah and its growing political influence in Lebanon – a source of tension for several years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Non State Actors, Hezbollah, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations