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Begin New Search Topic Diplomacy Content Type Commentary and Analysis

1. Pakistan Steps In: Sudan and the Transformation of Regional Security

Author:
Areig Elhag
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A $1.5 billion Pakistani arms deal with Sudan signals a regional shift from diplomacy toward military escalation, which may prolong the war in Sudan. At a moment that should have seen renewed momentum toward a political settlement in Sudan, reports suggest that Pakistan, with Saudi mediation, is nearing completion of a $1.5 billion arms deal with the war-torn country. Far from being a routine arms transaction, the deal encompasses Karakoram-8 aircraft, more than 200 drones, and air defense systems. It also potentially includes JF-17 multirole fighter jets, produced jointly by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. This development points to a deeper regional shift away from sponsoring dialogue and toward a military resolution to the Sudanese conflict.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Regional Security, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Africa, and Sudan

2. Prospects for Syria-Israel Relations

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israel may believe the tense status quo is sustainable, but Washington is frustrated about the potential implications for Arab normalization, Turkish military friction, and near-term economic plans.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

3. Clearing the Path for Nuclear Disarmament: Confidence-building in the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
This paper explores possibilities for building confidence in the Korean peninsula to address the conflict dynamics and militarization in the region. It argues that a key reason for the failure of past diplomatic efforts has been the coercive approach in pursuit of immediate nuclear disarmament in North Korea. In addition to a more incremental approach to North Korean–United States nuclear diplomacy focused on arms control, the paper highlights the need for reciprocity in terms of sanctions relief, as well as more robust confidence-building measures aimed at reducing instability and addressing the security rationales behind North Korea’s nuclear policy. At the same time, it proposes embedding nuclear diplomacy into a broader framework of cooperative risk reduction and arms control that also includes South Korea and possibly other regional actors. If sustained over time, such a framework could ultimately also promote nuclear disarmament alongside the normalization of political relations between key conflict parties.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, and Confidence Building Measures
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

4. Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 1): Kurdish Actors and Interests

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although past peace efforts have fallen apart due to diplomatic stumbles and Kurdish opposition, the situation on the ground in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey has changed dramatically enough to warrant optimism about Ankara’s current talks. Turkey is reportedly on the cusp of a historic announcement by Abdullah Ocalan, jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), with sources indicating he may soon ask the movement’s members to disband and end their longstanding fight against the government. Resolving the state’s five-decade conflict with a designated terrorist group would have momentous repercussions on a wide range of issues, from Turkish politics at home to bilateral ties abroad. For one, it could remove the PKK thorn from U.S.-Turkish relations and pave the way for their anticipated reset under the second Trump administration. It would also affect developments next door in Syria, where Washington has partnered with the PKK’s Syrian branch, the People’s Defense Units (YPG), since 2014 to fight the Islamic State—rousing Turkey’s ire in the process. Yet what are the deal’s actual chances for success, and what specific implications might it hold for the many relevant actors in the region and beyond? Part 1 of this PolicyWatch analyzes the Kurdish angles in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq; Part 2 assesses broader U.S. and Turkish policy considerations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Kurds, PKK, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

5. Target Taiwan: Prospects for a Chinese invasion

Author:
Lyle Goldstein
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
In a scenario where China attempts an amphibious invasion of Taiwan and the United States does not fight, the invasion will likely succeed assuming Beijing is willing to bear heavy casualties. Taiwan’s vulnerability to China is due to its proximity, since it is located well within range of Chinese missiles, airpower, rocket artillery, helicopters, and paratroopers. All this will reduce Taiwan’s ability to prevent an amphibious landing. Due to its air superiority and the geography of Taiwan, which is mostly urban and mountainous, China can plan for an infantry fight, at least initially, not one dominated by heavy armor. Hence, civilian vessels, including small craft of all types, can help ferry most troops ashore. While an operation to seize Taiwan would be a highly risky endeavor that could result in heavy Chinese losses, Beijing would likely be motivated to bear such costs, since it views national unification as a core interest. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan thus cannot be discounted and Taiwan should prepare by boosting its defense spending, emphasizing its own self-reliance, and engaging in diplomacy.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Armed Conflict, Vulnerability, and Invasion
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

6. The Yemen Review Quarterly: October-December 2024

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Houthi leader Abdelmalek al-Houthi sought to reposition his movement as the head of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. Israel’s destruction of Gaza and attacks on Lebanon’s Hezbollah, including the killing of its influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah, have left the alliance weakened, a point underscored by the rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran has tried to avoid direct conflict with Israel and the West, leaving the Houthis as the only undiminished group continuing to fight. Abdelmalek has increasingly spoken as if on behalf of the entire alliance, condemning the war in Gaza and chastising Saudi Arabia for pursuing normalization with Israel. The Houthis dissolved their Supreme Council for the Management and Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and International Cooperation (SCMCHA), transferring its responsibilities to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. SCMCHA oversaw humanitarian operations and was notorious for its interference and aid diversion. The move follows the arrest and detention of dozens of humanitarian workers in June, some of whom have since been charged with espionage.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, Houthis, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

7. A Roadmap for Israel-Lebanon Peace

Author:
Hanin Ghaddar, Robert Satloff, and Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Pursuing even incremental steps will be difficult in a country long dominated by Iran’s chief regional proxy, but the two countries’ leaders have cracked the door open for future diplomacy.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Politics, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

8. Iraqi Kurds Could Facilitate and Mediate in PKK-Turkish Peace Process


Author:
Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
New developments in the PKK-Turkey peace process are a window of opportunity for Iraqi Kurdish parties to stabilize areas of Iraqi Kurdistan affected by the conflict and help facilitate a lasting peace. In a major development, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leadership announced on May 12 that the group would disband, potentially marking an end to its forty year conflict with Turkey after a peace process began between its imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan’s and the Turkish state last October. However, much of the conflict has unfolded not in Turkey but in Iraq—and specifically the Kurdistan Region of Iraq—where Turkey has fought the PKK since the 1980s in a conflict that has threatened civilian lives, prompted internal displacement, and damaged the local economy. Given the destabilizing role of this conflict there, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has proven keen on a successful peace process in Turkey, since it could remove what it sees as PKK’s territorial encroachment in Iraqi Kurdistan. Both the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the KDP have also played mediating roles in the previous peace processes between Turkey and the PKK. While the PKK entered the Qandil mountains in Iraqi Kurdistan via a deal with the KDP in 1982, the PKK subsequently extended its presence outside of Qandil in the 1990s and came into conflict with the KDP during the Kurdish civil war. And during Turkish military cross-border operations against the PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan, which have increased since 2019, there have also been skirmishes and tensions between the KDP and PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan, including clashes between the PKK and Peshmerga, assassinations, market fires, and drone attacks on Peshmerga forces. The Turkish-PKK conflict has also led to civilian casualties in Iraqi Kurdistan, such as when eight Iraqi tourists were killed in 2022 in Turkish strikes, sparking diplomatic tensions between Baghdad and Ankara. These activities have been deeply concerning to the KDP, leading it to call on the PKK to return to Qandil and leave other areas of Iraqi Kurdistan in 2021 and offering its support for new peace talks with Turkey in return.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Kurds, Political Parties, PKK, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

9. Leveraging the Gaps in Russia and China’s Complex Relations with Iran

Author:
Richard Nephew
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Far from signaling a strong trilateral alliance, their history of often transactional cooperation reveals strategic gaps that Washington can leverage to help curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. For all the hoopla that preceded it, the trilateral China-Iran-Russia meeting on Tehran’s nuclear program did not appear to generate anything of great significance. The joint statement issued after the March 15 Beijing gathering largely echoed previous such documents, from condemning “unlawful unilateral sanctions” against Iran to reiterating a mutual desire for a diplomatic solution. That said, the mere act of holding the meeting may have been the objective, to signal to the world that the three countries stand together. This show of unity could have immediate practical effects given the partial expiration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2025—including the “snapback” provision that permits the UN to reimpose full sanctions on Iran if a JCPOA participant triggers the mechanism. At the same time, the three governments still have diverging historical and strategic interests on a range of issues—differences that will not dissipate just because they hold a joint meeting and share friction with the United States. If Washington hopes to exploit these fault lines, however, it must properly understand them.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, and Middle East

10. China Flexes Its Soft Power in the KRI

Author:
Winthrop Rodgers and Sardar Aziz
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, signs of Chinese soft power are increasingly visible to residents of an area with longstanding ties to the United States. As the world’s largest nation without a state of their own, Kurdish politicians in Iraq have long prioritized robust and visible relationships with foreign powers as a means to ensure the leaders and interests of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region (KRI) remain relevant amid changing geopolitical tides. For foreign governments, this welcoming atmosphere provides an opportunity to nurture the green shoots of soft power, often in the most ordinary ways. Given the longstanding role of U.S. foreign aid in the KRI, Chinese soft power efforts and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG)’s response may provide a bell weather for how other longstanding U.S. allies respond to the shift in American attitudes towards aid and its attendant soft power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, United States of America, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)