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2. Planetary Health: Managing Competing Tensions
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- After more than two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, wars present a stark reminder of how difficult it is to stay committed to environmental causes when crises arise.
- Topic:
- Environment, Health, International Cooperation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Global Food Insecurity – Food Import: Reducing ASEAN’s Dependency
- Author:
- Paul Teng
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The current food insecurity caused by the three Cs — COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and conflicts — has highlighted the reliance of many ASEAN states on imported staple food and feed. ASEAN needs to seriously re-examine its priorities to reduce import dependency.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
4. Planetary health: An alternative framework for disaster governance in ASEAN?
- Author:
- S. Nanthini and Lina Gong
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the search for a better way of managing human activities and their environmental impact thereby zeroing in on the specific actions needed to maintain a balance for Planet Earth’s sustainability.
- Topic:
- Environment, Health, International Cooperation, Governance, Sustainability, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
5. Next Steps for Disaster Resilience in ASEAN
- Author:
- Alistair D B Cook and Christopher Chen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The challenges posed in responding to natural hazards during the global COVID-19 pandemic were felt across Southeast Asia. As travel restrictions and supply chain disruptions ease up, it is time to revaluate disaster management and not simply revert to old ways.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Resilience, COVID-19, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
6. Unrest in French Overseas Territories and Corsica: Analysis of Violent Demonstration Trends From 2020 to Early 2022
- Author:
- Adam Miller, Timothy Lay, and Niki Papadogiannaki
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 24 April 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron secured re-election, defeating far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. Despite his re-election to the presidency, dissatisfaction with Macron has been reflected by his relatively poor performance in both the presidential and parliamentary elections, with notable swings to both the political far-right and hard left (France24, 20 June 2022). During the presidential election, Macron lost electoral support in several regions of France and the overseas territories, with Le Pen comfortably outperforming Macron in Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, Mayotte, and Réunion (Guardian, 25 April 2022). Moreover, Macron’s Ensemble coalition lost its absolute majority in parliament during legislative elections on 12 and 19 June. Ensemble lost seats to the New Ecologic and Social People’s Union (NUPES), the left-wing coalition formed by hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (Euronews, 20 June 2022). While National Rally did not win any parliamentary seats in the territories, several Macron-supporting incumbent politicians lost their seats to NUPES or regionalist candidates (Le Monde, 19 June 2022). Most significantly, Secretary of State for the Sea Justine Benin lost her parliamentary seat in Guadeloupe to NUPES-supported Christian Baptiste (20 Minutes, 19 June 2022). These political developments follow more than a year of heightened levels of demonstration activity across mainland France, overseas territories, and Corsica. Driven by opposition to coronavirus restrictions, demonstrations across mainland France,1 overseas territories,2 and Corsica surged throughout 2021, with demonstration levels remaining elevated ahead of the presidential election in April. Although demonstrations spiked throughout French territory, analysis of this trend sheds light on complex regional dynamics. Most notably, since the beginning of 2020,3 demonstrations have been far more likely to involve violent activity, destructive activity, and/or barricades4 in French overseas territories and Corsica compared to mainland France. While violent demonstration levels have increased across the board, root issues vary. In Corsica, the violent death of a Corsican prisoner renewed calls for greater autonomy, while in the Americas, coronavirus restrictions rekindled discontent rooted in systemic inequality. Violent demonstration activity in the territories and Corsica reflects an underlying disconnect with the government in Paris. This report examines the regional trends that have emerged out of increased demonstration activity in mainland France, the overseas territories, and Corsica.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, COVID-19, and Demonstrations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Corsica, and French Overseas Territories
7. Religious Repression and Disorder Snapshots: 2020- 2021
- Author:
- Luca Nevola
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- ACLED-Religion’s incorporation of historical back-coding data for 2020 adds over 6,000 events across the seven countries covered by the pilot project: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, and Yemen. The new data include nearly 2,400 harassment events, nearly 700 demonstration events, over 2,150 political violence events, and over 750 strategic developments. The back-coding release expands ACLED-Religion’s full dataset to nearly 13,000 total events from the beginning of 2020 to the present. This report identifies key trends in religious disorder and repression in the seven countries covered by ACLED-Religion across 2020 and 2021. The report is organized around two sections. The first section examines overall patterns of repression and disorder, showing how macro-trends are driven by surges of events in specific countries. It also provides a focus on protest events and targets of religious repression. The second section explores potential triggers of religious repression, addressing the role of COVID-19 protocols and religious commemorations.
- Topic:
- Religion, Repression, Data, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
8. North Korea’s Covid-19 Outbreak: An Opening for Engagement?
- Author:
- Lorenzo Mariani and Leonardo Bruni
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In January 2020, in response to the novel coronavirus, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK; North Korea) closed its borders and for the next two years claimed it had not experienced a single case of Covid-19. However, on 12 May 2022, North Korea disclosed a severe domestic outbreak and in the following weeks began reporting millions of cases of “fevers” and several deaths.[1] Pyongyang’s admission was initially interpreted as a veiled request for international assistance as the country is particularly vulnerable due to its zero per cent vaccination rate, inadequate healthcare system and chronic food insecurity. However, as with previous attempts during the height of the pandemic, offers of aid and vaccines from the Republic of Korea (ROK; South Korea), the US, international organisations (IOs) and multilateral initiatives like COVAX received no response; most likely due to suspicion of the aid being politicised.[2]
- Topic:
- Health, Foreign Aid, European Union, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
9. The Pandemic Exposes and Exacerbates Existing Problems of Inequality and Polarization
- Author:
- Joshua Kurlantzick
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- During the COVID-19 pandemic, while some democracies (such as Canada and Australia) have been able to respond effectively, the five large democracies of the United States, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines have suffered severe effects on public health. In this commentary, Joshua Kurlantzick, a Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains how social and economic inequalities in these countries are the cause of their ineffective responses to the pandemic. He then points out how populist politicians in these countries have exacerbated inequality during the pandemic with their rhetoric and policy. The author then argues that despite political, economic, and social problems in these countries, leaders have an opportunity to alleviate inequality through major democratizing reforms, as there is a public sentiment of wanting to work together to overcome the pandemic.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Inequality, Populism, Public Health, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, India, Brazil, Philippines, and United Nations
10. Lessons from the T20: Five Priorities for Italian Infrastructure Investment
- Author:
- Fulvio Bersanetti, Nicola Bilotta, Raffaele Della Croce, Valeria Lauria, and Nicolò Russo Perez
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- As states and societies continue to struggle with the pandemic, a fundamental element of the post-Covid recovery will be the capacity to revive both public and private investments in infrastructure, thereby boosting growth and employment. Differently than previous crises, reorienting infrastructure investment to respond to the new social and environmental needs will also be needed, starting with health and poverty reduction, as well as climate change and the digitalisation drive. Italy is no exception. Under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) promoted by the European Union, Italy will receive 191 billion euro in which infrastructure investments will play a fundamental role. To unlock its full economic potential and pursue a successful post-Covid recovery, Italy should embrace five key priorities for infrastructure investment.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Investment, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
11. The Rise and Fall of Barrio Adentro
- Author:
- Amy Cooper and Oscar Feo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- With Hugo Chávez’s celebrated health care project progressively in ruins, the pandemic underlines the need to rebuild.
- Topic:
- Health Care Policy, Public Health, COVID-19, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
12. The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the DPRK-China Economic Ties and their Impact on the Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- Eun-lee Joung
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In normal economies, currencies weaken in times of difficulty, but something counter-intuitive happens in North Korea. Eun-lee Joung, a research fellow at Korea Institute for National Unification claims that the value of the North Korean won appreciated, and the market prices were remarkably stable although North Korea’s economy suffered its biggest contraction during the pandemic situation. Dr. Joung states that the partial lockdown of the border between North Korea and China, and North Korea’s various changes to deal with the sanctions including the substitution of imported goods with domestic goods may have contributed to the outcome. Meanwhile, she mentions that intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition and the possibility of a prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine could increase North Korea’s economic reliance on China and Russia which will impede the re-establishing relations between the two Koreas. However, as the cooperation between North Korea and China in tourism has increased up before the COVID-19 outbreak, Dr. Joung highlights that Pyongyang’s tourism industry is likely to expand, which is expected to stimulate non-governmental exchange and induce North Korea toward openness.
- Topic:
- Economy, Currency, COVID-19, and Unification
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
13. Planetary Health: A More Resilient World Post-COVID-19?
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The care of nature offers holistic solutions to a wide range of issues that include climate change and the pandemic. The emerging concept of planetary health has the potential to contribute and, if widely adopted, may lead to a more resilient world post-COVID-19.
- Topic:
- Public Health, Pandemic, Resilience, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
14. What the Quad Is, Is Not, and Should Not Be
- Author:
- Daniel Depetris
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Since its establishment in 2007, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD or Quad) has transformed into a multilateral forum to enhance military coordination in the Indo-Pacific among the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia and to address issues of mutual concern—particularly the rise of China. The U.S. has pushed for this transformation. Quad members speak of the group as a forum for issues in the Indo-Pacific ranging from COVID-19 and climate change to emerging technologies. But China, Asia’s biggest power, is integral to addressing each issue. In early 2021, the group’s leaders signed a joint statement reiterating the importance of a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific—a reference to what all four members regard as China’s illegitimate claims in the South and East China Seas. Indo-Pacific Quad members also have disputes with China: India over its shared border with China; Japan over China’s sovereignty claims over the Senkaku islands; and Australia over worsening ties, including onerous trade restrictions and tariffs.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, COVID-19, and Quad Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, India, Australia, and United States of America
15. ACLED 2020: The Year in Review
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- One year since the official start of the pandemic in March 2020, COVID-19 has killed more than two million people and brought at least half the earth’s population under lockdown (New York Times, 11 March 2021; New York Times, 3 April 2020). The health crisis has had major impacts on worldwide conflict and disorder patterns, contributing to an overall decrease in political violence levels last year even as it fueled an increase in demonstration activity. And while the pandemic’s effects have been global in scale, they have not been felt equally across conflict contexts: although violence declined on the aggregate level, it rose in nearly half the world’s countries. As vaccine distribution accelerates and countries relax public health restrictions, conflict levels are expected to increase throughout 2021(for more, see ACLED’s special report: Ten Conflicts to Worry About in 2021). Last year, ACLED expanded data collection to Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia, the United States, and all of Europe, achieving near global coverage. Our 2020 annual report reviews the past 12 months of data on political violence and demonstration activity around the world.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Demonstrations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16. A Year of COVID-19
- Author:
- Roudabeh Kishi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- March 2021 marks the first anniversary of the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). One year on, this report explores ACLED’s special coverage of the pandemic’s impact on political violence and protest trends around the world – analyzing changes in demonstration activity, state repression, mob attacks, overall rates of armed conflict, and more through the COVID-19 Disorder Tracker.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Conflict, COVID-19, and Demonstrations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17. A National Emergency: How COVID-19 is Fueling Unrest in the US
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In March 2020, the Trump administration declared the novel coronavirus pandemic a national emergency in the United States. Although the US is home to just 4% of the world’s population, it now accounts for a quarter of all confirmed COVID-19 cases and a fifth of the death toll (New York Times, 2021). A year on, more than half a million people have died of COVID-19 across the country (CDC, 2021), and the new Biden administration has officially extended the national emergency beyond its March 2021 expiration date (CNBC, 25 February 2021). The health crisis has exacerbated existing inequalities and political faultlines in the US, contributing to a surge of unrest throughout the country. New analysis of ACLED data — now extended to the beginning of 2020 — reveals the full scope of the pandemic’s impact on American protest patterns for the first time.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Pandemic, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
18. Naxal-Maoist Insurgency Trends in India During the Coronavirus Pandemic
- Author:
- Aastha Kaul
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- As countries continue to contend with the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become clear that its impact extends far beyond public health and safety, with the ability to shape political behavior and conflict. The interplay between disease and disorder is perhaps most visible in India, which has been one of the nations worst affected by the coronavirus. Following the onset of the pandemic, ACLED records an escalation of conflict in Jammu & Kashmir (for more see this spotlight infographic from ACLED’s COVID-19 Disorder Tracker) as well as a new wave of political unrest in the northeast (for more see this ACLED report on political violence in northeast India). In contrast, ACLED data show a decline in events in 2020 related to the Naxal-Maoist insurgency, one of India’s oldest post-independence conflicts. The restrictions surrounding the coronavirus pandemic impacted the Naxal-Maoist insurgency in two significant ways. First, the lockdown worsened already strained supply chains, preventing cadres from accessing vital resources such as rations and weaponry. Second, dwindling supplies subsequently affected operational capacity as insurgents were unable to effectively carry out their annual tactical counter-offensive campaign (TCOC). The combination of these factors has led to an overall decline of Naxal-Maoist activity in 2020, compared to the year prior. A comparative analysis of ACLED data for 2019 and 2020 reveals these trends and offer insights into the changing nature of the conflict.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Insurgency, Conflict, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
19. A Review of the Performance of the 2021 First Semester Budget
- Author:
- Mbewe Kalikeka
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Zambia’s 2021 National Budget is being executed under the theme, “Stimulate Economic Recovery and Build Resilience to Safeguard Livelihoods and Protect the Vulnerable.” During the budget planning process the COVID-19 pandemic took a heavy toll on economic activity that led the economy to contract by 3% in 2020. This is on the back of the economy having already being vulnerable to external shocks due to its structural weaknesses. Therefore, in line with aspirations to stimulate economic recovery, the 2021 National Budget set the growth target at 1.8%, underscoring a strong desire to crutch the economy to its recovery.
- Topic:
- Budget, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
20. Paper Fairy Tales VS Steel Brotherhood – Media Portrayals of Serbia’s Alliances in the Age of Pandemic
- Author:
- Luka Steric and Maja Bjelos
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- BCSP researchers Maja Bjeloš and Luka Šterić analyzed how media in Serbia reported about Chinese, Russian and EU help during the pandemics. Because the pandemic was used as a framework for an excessive pro-Chinese campaign, the research examines how pro-Chinese narratives in mainstream media during the pandemic were used to position China, displacing Russia as Serbia’s main non-Western partner, while simultaneously propelling the anti-EU narrative of incompetence and hypocrisy. The analysis was carried out for the period between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2021 and focused on two key events – media coverage of the first shipments of medical supplies to Serbia and media reporting of the supply of vaccines. Media monitoring included data collection using social listening software from the online portals of most-watched televisions (TV Happy, TV Prva), the most visited news portals (Blic, Kurir, Politika, B92 and Nova.rs), and the most circulated online portals of tabloids (Informer and Alo). Chinese medical aid to Serbia during the COVID-19 pandemic attracted unprecedented foreign media attention and much speculation about a shift in Serbia’s foreign policy. Many foreign and domestic policy experts have interpreted the enthusiastic acceptance of Chinese aid by Serbian politicians as a departure from Serbia’s proclaimed accession to the European Union. Since Serbia did not greet Russian assistance with the same enthusiasm, this sparked speculation that Serbia is replacing Russia with China as its preferred eastern partner. In Serbian media, the narrative of a ‘brotherhood’ has long been reserved for describing relations between Serbia and Russia. Serbia’s ruling political elite voluntarily promoted President Putin and Russia in the mainstream media to increase political support among pro-Russian votes and at the same time exaggerating Russia’s influence in Serbia as a bargaining chip with the West over its political goals. Due to the silent crisis of relations with Moscow, Belgrade officials saw the partnership with China as a stronger card to play ahead of the 2020 elections to convince voters that the government was capable of dealing with the COVID-19 crisis, as well as acquiring a new ally in the East to leverage in the West. Consequently, China emerged as a ‘savior of Serbs in trouble’ during the pandemic overshadowing roles of both Russia and the EU.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Media, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Serbia
21. Are we facing a wave of conflict in high-income countries?
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Daniel Mack, Céline Monnier, Nendirmwa Noel, Paul von Chamier, and Leah Zamore
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- The recent wave of violent protests and unrest across the developed world – the storming of the US Capitol during the electoral college process and the riots in the Netherlands, among others – questions the assumption that high-income countries have become immune to large-scale internal political violence. Are we facing a new wave of high-income conflict? At a minimum, increased violent unrest, political assassinations, and domestic terrorism in the next ten years seem possible, unless governments focus on avoiding impunity and establishing shared understanding of facts, reducing inequality and prejudice, and building institutional resilience. This analysis examines whether these recent events augur a wider shift in conflict risk to high-income countries, akin to the shift seen from low to middle-income countries 20 years ago. Given these events, this analysis systematically reviews conflict risks in high-income countries, as well as offers a framework that has been widely applied in the developing world to examine the risk factors for violent conflict in wealthy countries, including second generation impacts of COVID-19.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Protests, COVID-19, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
22. How can we work towards economic recovery for all? Financing for Development: the issues, challenges, and opportunities in 2021
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Karina Gerlach, and Leah Zamore
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- 2021, we all hope, will be the year of recovery. If COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out at scale, including in the developing world, global economic recovery will be large. But that in itself ensures neither that all countries will be included in the recovery, nor that all people within each country will see the gains. A rising tide, as we have seen only too well since US president John F. Kennedy first used the phrase in 1963, does not lift all boats. Elsewhere, CIC has analyzed the high demand for transformative policies in high- and low-income countries alike since the COVID-19 crisis began, including policies for domestic action on inequality and socioeconomic exclusion. This piece takes a more global view and considers how to ensure that all countries benefit, and examines the issues, challenges, and opportunities in financing for development. It looks first at the key political messages that explain why 2021 should be a year of urgent, ambitious global action for shared economic recovery; secondly at the measures under discussion (which are expanded in an annex); thirdly at the political interests at play; and fourthly at foreseeable scenarios for agreement. Last, we outline the calendar of relevant policy meetings this year and the challenge of orchestrating progress between them.
- Topic:
- Governance, Reform, Finance, Multilateralism, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
23. Restoring Civic Trust in the Post-Pandemic Era: What makes citizens trust governments?
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe and Paul von Chamier
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- We are still engaged in a race against time of increasing urgency, not only in terms of flattening the pandemic curve in situations such as those India and many Latin American countries face, but also in restoring trust that government and international institutions can act, and act successfully, in face of 21st century crises. We are seeing both deeply negative and truly positive developments. Many parts of the world enter the depths of the third wave of the pandemic, with record highs in new daily infections, and in human suffering behind the numbers. Yet at the same time there is positive news: on medical innovation, on international liquidity, on tax cooperation, and on climate. The question is which will win out: can positive progress move fast enough to counteract the trust crisis? In 2020, CIC published a number of pieces on trust in high-, middle- and low-income countries and in international organizations. Last summer, trust in government had in many parts of the world increased: we made the argument that people were faced with a brutal reminder of what governments are for and hence had turned back to the state, but also warned that trust bubbles in crises often evaporate within a year if people do not see sustained and credible action. This analysis from the CIC team looks at what empirical research says about why trust matters for many different forms of political, social, and economic development—and why we should take declining trust seriously. The team also takes a look at what we know about the determinants of trust, in particular corruption, inequality, and history. Lastly, this analysis discusses the different policy options to restore and nurture trust.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Reform, Multilateralism, Economic Development, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
24. Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Winter 2020/2021
- Author:
- Klaus-Jurgen Gern
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- This EUROFRAME Report presents an assess- ment of the economic outlook for 2021 focuses on the euro area based on a synopsis of the fore- casts of EUROFRAME institutes. Perspectives for UK and CEEs countries are described in Boxes A and B, respectively. In the Focus section, we discuss a special topic, based on work done in the EUROFRAME insti- tutes. This time, we discuss the impact that the COVID-19 crisis had on labour markets in Eu- rope and policy responses to this challenge, based on the experience in the countries hosting EUROFRAME institutes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Regionalism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
25. World economy in spring 2021: Recovery stays on track
- Author:
- Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths, and Ulrich Stolzenburg
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- The global economy continued to recover in the winter semester, despite the number of new infections with the coronavirus rising sharply and containment measures tightened again in many countries. Industrial production and world trade have already fully catched up with activity levels before the pandemic and appear to be little affected by the second wave of Covid-19. While the European economy did slip into recession again, the decline in GDP is not expected to be dramatic and should be followed by a strong recovery from spring onward, provided that progress in vaccination allows a substantial and sustained relaxation of measures designed to suppress the virus. In the course of this year, the global upturn will thus increasingly extend to economic sectors that remain severely impeded for the time being, such as tourism and entertainment, and to economies that are particularly geared to these activities. On a purchasing power parity basis, global output is expected to increase by 6.7 percent in 2021 and by 4.7 percent in 2022, thus progressively closing the gap to the pre-crisis path of activity towards the end of the forecast period. We have raised our December forecast by 0.6 percent for both this year and next, with a particularly strong improvement in the outlook for the United States. World trade in goods is expected to grow by 7.5 percent this year. With growth of 4.7 percent this year and next, respectively, Towards the end of the forecast horizon world trade will thus be even higher than expected before the crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Forecast, Economic Growth, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
26. German Economy Summer 2021
- Author:
- Kiel Institute
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- The German economy is picking up speed again. After the resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic had interrupted the economic recovery in the winter half-year, GDP will expand at a fast pace in the further course of the year and exceed its pre-crisis level again. With the removal of the pandemic-related restrictions, activity will rebound, especially in those areas that were previously particularly burdened. Retail trade and contact-intensive services in particular are likely to benefit from the rebound in private household consumption. For the time being, however, the recovery will be delayed in the manufacturing industry. The strong global recovery has brought with it multi-layered supply bottlenecks that are noticeably hampering production in many firms. Despite the very good order situation, production in the manufacturing industry will therefore probably only gradually return to its recovery path in the second half of the year, provided that the supply bottlenecks then gradually ease. With the supply bottlenecks, price pressures have also increased, especially as economic momentum is high worldwide. Thus, prices for raw materials, intermediate goods and transport services have recently been on a broad upward trend. All in all, GDP is expected to grow by 3.9 percent this year and by 4.8 percent in 2022. Consumer prices will rise at a much faster rate of probably 2.6 percent this year and by around 2 percent in 2022.
- Topic:
- Economics, GDP, Economic Growth, Pandemic, Industry, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
27. Need, Aid, and Root Causes: The Appropriateness of Humanitarian Response in the DPRK
- Author:
- Nazanin Zadeh-Cummings
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Humanitarian aid carries connotations of emergency, urgent response, and acute threats to human morbidity, mortality, and dignity. Despite the end of the famine emergency since the mid-1990s, however, the DPRK has continued to receive international humanitarian aid. This article argues that while concepts of development and humanitarianism highlight the challenges to bringing structural change in the DPRK, the long-term nature of need in the DPRK does not signal an inappropriate match with humanitarian aid. In a sanctioned and highly politicised environment with questions of denuclearisation and human rights abuses, seeking to improve daily lives is an inherently structural act. Without structural changes, acute needs have and likely will continue even in times of non-emergency.
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, Famine, Human Security, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
28. Malaysia`s emergency ordinance and the clampdown on public discourse
- Author:
- Imran Shamsunahar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Upon the demise of the controversial Anti-Fake News Act of 2018, Malaysia witnessed the emergence of a similar mechanism to target fake news amid the COVID-19 crisis. The Emergency (Essential Powers) (No. 2) Ordinance 2021 was designed to combat the rise of fake news, which bears grave consequences to public health such as stifling COVID-19 vaccinations. However, upon its declaration, it has only stirred controversy. Imran Shamsunahar, Executive for External Relations at the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS), explains that a recent series of unwarranted events associated with the pandemic led many to believe that the ordinance serves to stifle public discourse regarding the state of emergency, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the government’s poor management of the crisis. Having failed to draw the line between ‘fake news’ and its counterpart, the ordinance was subject to criticism from not only civil society organizations but also politicians. He argues that in order for the government to properly engage with the public amid the crisis, it must find ways that align with values such as transparency rather than through means that are restrictive and repressive.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, COVID-19, and Fake News
- Political Geography:
- Malaysia and Asia-Pacific
29. The Pandemic Situation in Myanmar is Getting Worse Under the Military Government
- Author:
- Khine Win
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Amid the ongoing military rule in Myanmar, the public health crisis has been reaching new heights. According to Khine Win, founder and director of Sandhi Governance Institute, hopes were high among citizens in Myanmar for a healthcare system that could aptly combat the COVID-19 pandemic upon the election of the NLD in November 2020. However, progress has been reversed and is yet stalled under the elongated military rule. Despite dire civil health and poverty predictions issued by the UNDP, World Food Programme, and other international organizations, the military government turned a blind eye to their warnings, exacerbating the ongoing health crisis. COVID-19 cases have been increasing exponentially, with the number of actual COVID-19 cases expected to be higher than official numbers. News that military rule is expected to continue into 2023 paints a dull future for the public health situation in Myanmar.
- Topic:
- Governance, Democracy, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Myanmar and Asia-Pacific
30. Anti-Asian Americanism and the 2020 Elections
- Author:
- Taeku Lee
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- There has been an alarming increase in the negative treatment against Asian Americans with the onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the 2020 elections in the United States. Taeku Lee, Professor at the University of California, Berkeley, highlights four critical points to understand the hate against Asian Americans today. First, harassment against Asian Americans is a pervasive phenomenon. Second, the negative treatment of Asian Americans is not a new and has been present for as long as Asians has been in the US. Third, anti-Asian Americanism can be found among political elites. And Fourth, adverse treatment is not limited to verbal harassment but can be found is everyday social interactions. However, amidst the rise of harassment and discrimination, there has been a rapid increase of political participation of Asian Americans which comes in the form of electoral participation, political representation and active participation in civil society organizations.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Democracy, Discrimination, COVID-19, Racism, and Political Participation
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
31. Populism and the Pandemic in Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Paul D. Kenny
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Southeast Asian countries that are within close proximity to China were immediately affected by the spread of COVID-19 virus. Paul D. Kenny, Professor at the Australian Catholic University discusses the role of populism in public health responses to the virus and the reciprocal effect of the pandemic on the fate of populists in the region focusing on the Philippines and Indonesian cases. He argues that while the two governments took different responses to the pandemic crisis, both measures led to similar results in terms of how it affected support for the government. While President Duterte responded aggressively towards the pandemic with the issuance of Proclamation 922, President Jokowi’s response was substantially less coercive than that of Duterte’s. Professor Kenny states that both countries, in their current state, have seen similar results — support for both presidents in their respective countries remain considerably high. Nonetheless, the author adds that the continuing decline in Philippines’ economy may hamper his efforts in securing presidency.
- Topic:
- Government, Economy, Populism, Public Health, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia
32. Characteristics of Disaster Risk Reduction Governance Under the Kim Jong Un Regime and Implications for Policies toward North Korea
- Author:
- Ejr Cho and Tae-Kyung Kim
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Kim Jong Un has been trying to overcome the triple distress North Korea faces – sanctions against North Korea, natural disasters, and the coronavirus pandemic. In this commentary, EJR Cho, Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), and Tae-Kyung Kim, Associate Research Fellow at the National Assembly Futures Institute, explains North Korea’s “disaster risk reduction” governance, a system implemented by Kim Jong Un to flaunt the legitimacy and superiority of his regime. Internally, the regime has changed its organization and system related to disaster management. Externally, North Korea has requested the international community for disaster recovery assistance, accepted international norms on disaster management, and sought a multilateral cooperation to solve the distress that the regime faces. Changes such as Kim Jong Un’s shift from the Kim Jong Il regime's military-first politics to 'people first politics' show that it is possible for North Korea to engage with the international community in other areas in the coming years.
- Topic:
- Governance, Sustainable Development Goals, COVID-19, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
33. PTSS Virtual Global Alumni Community of Interest Workshop: The Impact of the COVID–19 Pandemic on Terrorism and Counterterrorism
- Author:
- James K. Wither
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper presents the findings of a George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (GCMC) Counterterrorism (CT) Virtual Global Alumni Community of Interest (COI) workshop held on January 20-21, 2021. The objectives of the workshop were as follows: Analyze the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on terrorism and CT nationally and internationally. Identify the extent to which the pandemic has created vulnerabilities that terrorists have been able to exploit to mount attacks and/or attract new recruits. Explore the extent to which the pandemic might make societies more vulnerable to terrorism and irregular warfare in the longer term and the reasons why this could happen. Formulate policy recommendations for the global counterterrorism community from the perspective of GCMC CT Alumni. The virtual workshop was structured around four panels, each with two alumni panelists with practical or academic expertise on the selected topics. GCMC CT faculty acted as panel moderators. The panels examined the impact of the pandemic on terrorist financing as well as terrorism and CT in the Middle East, the Americas, and the Sahel in Africa. Thirty selected global alumni took part in the workshop and raised additional questions and comments after the formal panel sessions. Initially, planning for the COI took place in spring 2020, when it was wrongly assumed that the worst of the pandemic would be over by 2021 and assessments of its impact would, therefore, be relatively conclusive. However, given the continued threat posed by COVID-19, with countries around the world still suffering from its impact, the assessments below must be regarded as interim. Therefore, the workshop made no specific policy recommendations. Marshall Center CT faculty members, along with their colleagues at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia–Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), have researched the impact of the pandemic on terrorism since March 2020.1 The COI followed a survey of alumni on the impact of the pandemic on terrorism and CT conducted in October 2020.2 Over four hundred military and civilian counterterrorism practitioners responded to the survey from Europe, North and South America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Unsurprisingly, many of the conclusions from the recent workshop are similar to impact statements in the earlier survey.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
34. The World After the Pandemic: European Unity and the Challenge of Reviving Multilateralism
- Author:
- Sonia Bianconi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Covid-19 has dramatically re-focussed the world’s attention on the adverse implications of globalisation. Coming on the heels of the 2008 financial crisis, the global pandemic has further weakened the image and credibility of the United States, causing the West to lose appeal compared to a more authoritarian but equally efficient East.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Politics, European Union, Multilateralism, Institutions, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America
35. Covid-19 and the International Liberal Order: Goodbye “Global”, Hello “Regional”?
- Author:
- Irene Paviotti
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Covid-19 crisis is broadly recognised as a watershed moment in world history, prompting a radical rethink of social norms and accelerating a number of pre-existing geopolitical trends. When it comes to globalisation and multilateralism, two defining features of the current international order, the pandemic has accelerated a move towards regionalism on the one hand and clearly exposed the shortcomings of an unequal multilateral system on the other.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Health, Political Economy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
36. Europe and Covid-19: Never Waste a Good Crisis
- Author:
- Chiara Andreazza
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- "Democracy is based on the promise of social mobility and improvement, a path that leads to increasing well-being, particularly for the middle class. If incomes fall and inequalities sharpen, then democracies collapse.” Italian philosopher, Massimo Cacciari, used these words to describe the present crisis that western liberal democracies are facing. Years have passed since the first signs of citizen distrust towards social institutions and governing elites became apparent. Such sentiments have led to an increase in populist politics and authoritarian tendencies, characterised by charming leaders and strongman politics, which in turn have challenged certain elements of liberal democracy.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Democracy, Legitimacy, Institutions, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
37. Covid-19 and the Multilateral System: What Role for the EU?
- Author:
- Roberto Baccarini
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Covid-19 represents a critical juncture for the European Union. The crisis catalysed the weakening of the post-Cold War international order and the emergence of a multipolar world, presenting Europe with significant, even existential challenges.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Multilateralism, Institutions, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
38. Battling Marine Plastic Waste: Nuclear Technology's Role
- Author:
- Julius Caesar Trajano
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Marine plastic pollution has worsened since the COVID-19 pandemic. Nuclear technology provides a sustainable and scientific approach to tackling this environmental problem. Can it help Southeast Asian countries battle plastic pollution?
- Topic:
- Environment, Science and Technology, Pollution, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
39. Lockdowns in ASEAN: Winning the Pandemic War
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- With vaccines not expected to fully roll out until 2024, lockdowns remain a critical priority to save lives today. February 2021 marks the end of a year of COVID-19, and the opportunity to re-visit and improve the way lockdowns are implemented in the year ahead.
- Topic:
- Pandemic, ASEAN, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
40. Manufactured Crisis: “Deindustrialization,” Free Markets, and National Security
- Author:
- Scott Lincicome
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Both the American left and right often use “national security” to justify sweeping proposals for new U.S. protectionism and industrial policy. “Free markets” and a lack of government support for the manufacturing sector are alleged to have crippled the U.S. defense industrial base’s ability to supply “essential” goods during war or other emergencies, thus imperiling national security and demanding a fundamental rethink of U.S. trade and manufacturing policy. The COVID-19 crisis and U.S.-China tensions have amplified these claims. This resurgent “security nationalism,” however, extends far beyond the limited theoretical scenarios in which national security might justify government action, and it suffers from several flaws. First, reports of the demise of the U.S. manufacturing sector are exaggerated. Although U.S. manufacturing sector employment and share of national economic output (gross domestic product) have declined, these data are mostly irrelevant to national security and reflect macroeconomic trends affecting many other countries. By contrast, the most relevant data—on the U.S. manufacturing sector’s output, exports, financial performance, and investment—show that the nation’s total productive capacity and most of the industries typically associated with “national security” are still expanding. Second, “security nationalism” assumes a need for broad and novel U.S. government interventions while ignoring the targeted federal policies intended to support the defense industrial base. In fact, many U.S. laws already authorize the federal government to support or protect discrete U.S. industries on national security grounds. Third, several of these laws and policies provide a cautionary tale regarding the inefficacy of certain core “security nationalist” priorities. Case studies of past government support for steel, shipbuilding, semiconductors, and machine tools show that security‐related protectionism and industrial policy in the United States often undermines national security. Fourth, although the United States is not nearly as open (and thus allegedly “vulnerable”) to external shocks as claimed, global integration and trade openness often bolster U.S. national security by encouraging peace among trading nations or mitigating the impact of domestic shocks. Together, these points rebut the most common claims in support of “security nationalism” and show why skepticism of such initiatives is necessary when national security is involved. They also reveal market‐oriented trade, immigration, tax, and regulatory policies that would generally benefit the U.S. economy while also supporting the defense industrial base and national security.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, COVID-19, Free Market, and Deindustrialization
- Political Geography:
- China, North America, and United States of America
41. Private Schooling after a Year of COVID-19: How the Private Sector Has Fared and How to Keep It Healthy
- Author:
- Neal McCluskey
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In one year, COVID-19 contributed to the permanent closure of at least 132 mainly low‐cost private schools. But that was better than some feared. As COVID-19 struck the United States in March 2020, sending the nation into lockdown, worry about the fate of private schools was high. These schools, which only survive if people can pay for them, seemed to face deep trouble. Many private schools have thin financial margins even in good economic times and rely not only on tuition but also on fundraisers, such as in‐person auctions, to make ends meet. When the pandemic hit, many such events were canceled, and churches no longer met in person, threatening contributions that help support some private schools. Simultaneously, many private schooling families faced tighter finances, making private schooling less affordable. Finally, families that could still afford private schooling might have concluded that continuing to pay for education that was going to be online‐only made little sense.
- Topic:
- Education, COVID-19, and Private Schools
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
42. The Remittance Effect: A Lifeline for Developing Economies Through The Pandemic and into Recovery
- Author:
- Oxford Economics
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- The rising value of remittance flows into developing countries in recent years is often not widely appreciated. At a macro level, remittances support growth and are less volatile than other private capital flows, tending to be relatively stable through the business cycle. At a micro level, remittances benefit recipient households in developing countries by providing an additional source of income and lower incidences of extreme poverty. Remittances act as a form of 'social insurance', supporting households' capabilities to resist economic shocks. Remittances help recipient households to increase spending on essential goods and services, invest in healthcare and education, as well as allowing them to build their assets, both liquid (cash) and fixed (property), enhancing access to financial services and investment opportunities. Understanding the role and importance of remittances is particularly important at the current juncture, with the global economy experiencing a uniquely sharp and synchronized shock as a result of COVID-19. This report examines the available evidence on remittance flows and their potential economic effects. The report explores and shows how remittance flows remain a crucial lifeline in supporting developing economies through the current pandemic crisis and into the recovery. Although remittances slowed during the pandemic, they remained more resilient than other private capital flows, making them even more important as a source of foreign inflows for receiving countries. While the World Bank estimates that remittance flows to developing countries (low-and-middle income economies) contracted by 7.0% in 2020, this decline is likely to have been far less severe than the downturn in private investor capital. Looking forward, the World Bank predicts that remittance flows to developing countries will contract by a further 7.5% in 2021. But the outlook remains subject to a high degree of uncertainty with both upside and downside risks. A wider set of dynamics – including central bank data outturns for 2020, economic outlooks for the world economy in 2021, survey data and remittance consumer market fundamentals – suggest that while there are downside risks, there is also potential that 2020 and 2021 will not turn out as weak as predicted by the World Bank and for a period of strong remittance growth in the medium-term as sender economies recover and demand from developing economies remains high.
- Topic:
- Development, Recovery, Economic Development, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
43. The Avoidable War: The Decade of Living Dangerously
- Author:
- Kevin Rudd
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- The year 2020 was a devastating one, but also a year of great change and transformation as the world adapted with difficulty to meet challenges largely unprecedented in living memory, and the trends of global power appeared to shift dramatically. And it was a revelatory year — one that pulled the lid off the true extent and meaning of our globalized, interconnected world, revealed dysfunction present in our institutions of national and international governance, and unmasked the real level of structural resentment, rivalry, and risk present in the world’s most critical great power relationship — that between the United States and China. 2020 may well go down in history as a great global inflection point. It is thus worth looking back to examine what happened and why and to reflect on where we may be headed in the decade ahead. The Avoidable War: The Decade of Living Dangerously, the third volume of ASPI’s annual Avoidable War series, does precisely that. It contains selected essays, articles, and speeches by Asia Society and ASPI President the Hon. Kevin Rudd that provide a series of snapshots as events unfolded over the course of 2020 — from the COVID-19 pandemic, through an implosion of multilateral governance, to the impact on China’s domestic political economy. Finally, it concludes with a discussion of the growing challenges the world will face as the escalating contest between the United States and China enters a decisive phase in the 2020s. No matter what strategies the two sides pursue or what events unfold, the tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. The Chinese Communist Party is increasingly confident that by the decade’s end, China’s economy will finally and unambiguously surpass that of the United States as the world’s largest, and this will turbocharge Beijing’s self-confidence, assertiveness, and leverage. Increasingly, this will be a “decade of living dangerously” for us all. War, however, is not inevitable. Rudd argues that it remains possible for the two countries to put in place guardrails that can prevent a catastrophe: a joint framework he calls “managed strategic competition” that would reduce the risk of competition escalating into open conflict.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Governance, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and United States of America
44. Transitional Justice and Silencing the Guns in Africa in the Context of COVID-19: Report on the Fourth African Transitional Justice Forum
- Author:
- Jasmina Brankovic
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- The Fourth African Transitional Justice Forum, held 0n 26–28 October 2020, addressed the state of transitional justice on the continent, specifically its contribution to the African Union's 2020 theme of the year, "Silencing the Guns," amid the challenges and opportunities presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Forum panels focused on development, violent extremism, victims' experiences and fundraising in relation to African-led transitional justice.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Violent Extremism, Transitional Justice, Peace, Reconciliation, Pandemic, African Union, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa
45. Freeing Fiscal Space: A human rights imperative in response to COVID-19
- Author:
- Ignacio Saiz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and Peace
- Abstract:
- Of the many dimensions of inequality that the COVID-19 pandemic has magnified, inequality between countries is one of the most glaring, yet one of the least effectively addressed. While the pandemic’s immediate health impacts have been felt in countries across all income levels, its eco- nomic consequences have been particularly dev- astating in countries of the Global South. Fuelling these inequalities is the disparity of resources that countries count on to respond to the crisis. International cooperation has never been more essential to address this disparity and enable all countries to draw on the resources they need to tackle the pandemic and its economic fallout. Besides the provision of emergency financial support, wealthier countries and international financial institutions (IFIs) need to cooperate by lifting the barriers their debt and tax policies and practices impose on the fiscal space of low- and middle-income countries. As this article explores, such cooperation is not only a global public health imperative. It is also a binding human rights obli- gation. Framing it as such could play an impor- tant role in generating the accountability and political will that has so far been sorely lacking.
- Topic:
- Fiscal Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
46. The Problem of the Growth of Georgia's Public Debt During the Economic Crisis Under the Covid-19 PAndemic
- Author:
- Vladimer Papava and Vakhtang Charaia
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic crisis caused by it presented the world with numerous severe problems. This economic crisis will henceforth also be referred to as the “coronomic crisis” which is based on the concept of “coronomics.” This term was created through the combination of the two words corona and economics and introduced in order to draw attention to the problem of the influence of the spread of the coronavirus on economies. One of the problems exacerbated by the coronomic crisis is the quick and significant growth of the public debt (the sum of the government’s domestic and external debts). It must be pointed out that according to standards, the overall external debt of a country is divided into several components: government, central bank, commercial banks, company loans and other sectors. The traditional question is as follows: should certain states fear the growth of the public debt despite the fact that the interest rate of the loans may not be particularly high? In a standard case, the answer to this question is yes;4 however, certain specific issues require clarification. For example, the proven indicator of public debt – its ratio to the gross domestic product (GDP),5 does not allow for the comparison of specific countries with one another, let alone being an impeccable measure of their success or failure. The analysis of a state’s economic capabilities is absolutely necessary as debts are taken both by rich as well as poor countries during extreme difficulties (like a pandemic) and economic advancement alike (for example, for infrastructural development).
- Topic:
- GDP, COVID-19, Public Debt, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Georgia
47. A Capable EU Is No Utopia: Strategic Lessons from the German Presidency
- Author:
- Anna-Lena Kirch
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Overall, as the COVID-19 crisis unfolded, the EU proved capable to act. Crisis management addressing the pandemic benefited from the fact that Germany held the presidency of the EU Council in the second half of 2020 and could build upon its traditional approach: developing European capabilities, including all governments, and being prepared for the unexpected. Now, going forward, Germany needs to use its experience with complexity and uncertainty to help form a strategic doctrine for the EU.
- Topic:
- European Union, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
48. COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race
- Author:
- Lorenza Errighi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- If 2020 was the year of “mask diplomacy”, as countries raced to tackle the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and acquire the necessary protective gear and equipment, 2021 is likely to be remembered as the year of “vaccine diplomacy”. Growing competition between states to secure the necessary quantities of vaccines to inoculate their population has already become an established feature of the post-COVID international system and such trends are only likely to increase in the near future. It normally takes up to a decade to transition from the development and testing of a vaccine in a laboratory to its large-scale global distribution. Despite current challenges, the speed of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns is unprecedented. To put an end to the current pandemic – which in one year has led to the loss of 2.6 million lives and triggered the worst economic recession since the Second World War – the goal is to ensure the widest immunisation of the world population in a timeframe of 12 to 18 months. In this context, COVID vaccines emerge as instruments of soft power, as they symbolise, on the one hand, scientific and technological supremacy and, on the other, means to support existing and emerging foreign policy partnerships and alliances with relevant geopolitical implications. From their experimentation in laboratories, to their purchase and distribution, the vaccine has emerged as a significant tool for competition between powers, often associated with the promotion of competing developmental and governance models across third countries.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
49. The Plight of the Western Balkans Is a Wake-up Call for Europe
- Author:
- Vedran Džihić and Paul Schmidt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In societies devastated by the pandemic, the EU needs to leave its conventional tool-box behind and urgently speed up the Europeanisation of its neighbours in Southeast Europe. The coronavirus pandemic has deepened the vulnerabilities affecting Western Balkan countries and exposed the weakness of their state institutions, especially in the health sector and social protection. At the same time, related to the limited effectiveness of the EU enlargement process over the past years, the progress of reforms has stagnated and some countries have even experienced concerning regressions in the rule of law. The outbreak of the coronavirus crisis has meanwhile increased the presence of other geopolitical players in the region, mainly in the context of competition over vaccinations, not only of China but also of Russia and the United Arab Emirates. Awareness is growing that the EU and the West is not the only available partner. As other powers not known for their democratic practices use or misuse the Western Balkans to promote their interests, the vision of a free, democratic and truly European Balkans is no longer self-evident.
- Topic:
- European Union, Institutions, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans
50. The Conference on the Future of Europe: Tackling Differentiated Integration
- Author:
- Nicoletta Pirozzi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The European Union is struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, which has swept through European societies and economies, causing more than 500,000 deaths (and counting) and a GDP downturn of –6.4 per cent in 2020. This is the third big crisis – and possibly the most dramatic – to impact the EU over the last 12 years, following the economic and financial crisis in 2008– 2010 and the extraordinary influx of migrants arriving on European shores in 2015–2016. All these crises produced asymmetrical consequences on the member countries and citizens. The already marked differences among member states have been exacerbated, making a unified response by EU institutions difficult in the process and suboptimal in the outcome. Indeed, especially during the first wave of the pandemic in Europe, the actions and statements of national leaders revealed a deep rift within the EU and the Eurozone, leading to nationalistic moves in border control and the export of medical supplies. Citizens were therefore exposed to the negative consequences of a Union with limited powers in sectors such as health and crisis management. Meanwhile, important decisions such as the approval of the Next Generation EU package and the new budget for 2021– 2027 risked ending in failure due to the opposition of some member states.
- Topic:
- Regional Integration, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
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