« Previous |
1 - 100 of 106
|
Next »
Number of results to display per page
Search Results
2. Latin America’s New Left Surge
- Author:
- Linda Farthing
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Our latest issue of the NACLA Report explores lessons from the Pink Tide and what lies ahead for the diverse Lefts in Latin America today.
- Topic:
- Politics, Leftist Politics, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
3. What’s Next for Bolivia After Camacho’s Arrest?
- Author:
- Pablo Solon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A controversial, high-profile detention reveals deep divides within the MAS and an uncertain path forward amid an ongoing conservative backlash.
- Topic:
- Politics, Domestic Politics, Conservatism, Protests, and Right-Wing Politics
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Bolivia
4. European Security and Defence: Don’t Get Your Hopes Up Just Yet
- Author:
- Adaja Stoetman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- “2022 will be the year of European defence”.[1] These were the words of European Council President Charles Michel in October 2021. When he gave his speech at the Charlemagne Prize Award Ceremony in Aachen, no one expected that his statement would materialise in the way it did. Yes, headway was to be expected with the adoption of the Strategic Compass and European countries demonstrating commitment to investing more in defence cooperation. Although there is still a world of difference between ambitions and reality, the degree of progress accomplished in the past twelve months was not foreseen.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Politics, European Union, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe
5. Why China Is Taking Sides Against Israel—and Why It Will Likely Backfire
- Author:
- Michael Singh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When news broke of the Hamas attack on Israel last month, the silence from Beijing was conspicuous amid the din of international statements. When the government finally addressed the conflict at a press conference the day after, its words were remarkable for being unremarkable. An unnamed Foreign Ministry spokesperson expressed “deep concern,” called on “relevant parties to remain calm, exercise restraint, and immediately end the hostilities,” and lamented the “protracted standstill of the peace process”—a diplomatic endeavor in which Beijing has never shown more than a passing interest. The wording was nearly identical to China’s reactions during past Gaza conflicts, despite the fact that the circumstances were radically different. Because the brief remarks failed to condemn Hamas or even recognize the scale of the horrors that occurred on October 7, Israeli commentators interpreted them not as neutral, but as hostile. Beijing soon confirmed that interpretation. On October 14, Foreign Minister Wang Yi asserted that Israel’s actions went “beyond the scope of self-defense” and demanded that it stop imposing “group punishment” on Palestinians, while still refusing to condemn Hamas. (For a full listing of Beijing’s official statements on the conflict, see The Washington Institute’s statement tracker.) Chinese media have likewise presented the war as one of Israeli aggression—despite being heavily censored, their early reports were rife with anti-Semitic, anti-Israel commentary claiming that Hamas was defending the two-state solution, even though the group’s past and present actions are patently bent on destroying the Israeli state. Notably, the strident tone in online Chinese commentary moderated in the run-up to President Xi Jinping’s November 15 meeting with President Biden, underscoring the government’s well-established influence over such messaging. This approach is a stark departure from Beijing’s past impassivity toward Middle East conflicts, in which Chinese officials had usually sought to avoid entanglement. Rather, it reflects the government’s new inclination to use far-flung conflicts as opportunities to undermine the United States and score points in the “Global South.” Yet it could also hold longer-term consequences for China, particularly regarding the government’s three-decade effort to improve relations with Israel. In addition, using the current crisis to take potshots at Washington may constrain Beijing’s ability to project impartiality in other regional conflicts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Strategic Competition, and Palestinians
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Gaza
6. Making Sense of Iraq’s Politicized Supreme Court Rulings
- Author:
- Selin Uysal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 14, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court (FSC) made waves by ruling on a complaint against Speaker of Parliament Mohammed al-Halbousi, ultimately deciding to revoke his membership in the legislature. In the absence of any appeal mechanism, Halbousi will have to step down from the speakership he has held since 2018—a development that will have ripple effects on the provincial elections scheduled for December 18.
- Topic:
- Politics, Supreme Court, and Judiciary
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
7. Can Federalism Work in Lebanon?
- Author:
- Robert Rabil
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Lebanon’s economic and socio-political conditions have spiraled downward since the rise and fractionalization of the 2019 popular protests—known as the October 17 Revolution—various proposals have emerged as to how to remedy the bankrupt and virtually failed state. All agree that the current outlook is grim; today, the Lebanese currency has lost almost all its value and the presidential seat is contested and remains vacant. Political elites are at loggerheads and blamed for robbing the state, society is polarized across intra- and inter-confessional lines, and poverty has reached a popular level not seen since the Great Famine of World War I. Among the proposed suggestions is the federal option, put as an alternative to the country’s confessional system. Such ideas are not new; in fact, the federal option had been championed and the subject of debate among mainly Christian politicians and parties prior to and during Lebanon’s civil war (1975-1990). President Camille Chamoun (1952-1958) offered a detailed plan for a federal Lebanon; the Lebanese Front, representing mainly Maronite aspirations, likewise presented a federal project during the Lebanon National Dialogue in Lausanne in 1984; and president-elect Bashir Gemayel, assassinated in 1982, toyed with the idea of federalism. However, Lebanon’s civil war ended when the antagonistic parties signed the Document of National Reconciliation of 1989, also known as the Taif Agreement, which introduced administrative decentralization instead of federalism. And while the agreement ended the civil war, it subsequently ushered in an era of Lebanese politics marked by the Syrian occupation of Beirut until 2005 and the rise of the Islamist Shia party Hezbollah, effectively building a state within a state and commanding a militia more or less better equipped than the Lebanese Armed Forces. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s political elites entered into a Faustian pact with Hezbollah under which they legitimized the ‘Party of God’ in exchange for turning a blind eye to their theft of the state. It is this bargain that has brought Lebanon to its almost total collapse as a state and a nation.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Reform, Shia, and Federalism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
8. Hakan Fidan and the New Turkish Diplomacy in Iraq
- Author:
- Firas Elias
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s victory in the Turkish general elections in May 2023, Turkish foreign policy in Iraq has the potential to evolve in a different direction under the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan. Though the management of Turkey’s affairs in Iraq has shifted between various Turkish institutions since 2003, President Erdoğan has consolidated decision-making into his own hands since 2017, and his recent appointment of Fidan—a former intelligence director and loyal ally of Erdoğan—signals a continuation of this process, especially vis-a-vis Iraq. As Director of National Intelligence, Fidan oversaw the most sensitive backchannels with various regional and international actors, and he played a leading role in formulating Turkish intelligence and security policy. Notably, Fidan also led Turkey's reconciliation efforts with a variety of adversaries, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He has also been intimately involved in Turkish efforts to combat the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), targeting many PKK leaders and allied factions in northern Iraq, particularly in Sinjar, Makhmur, and al-Kuwayr. In this regard, Fidan comes equipped with deep connections to Iraq’s bureaucratic circles, having already succeeded in building bridges between various Iraqi actors and institutions. In particular, Fidan has developed close ties with both Sunni and Kurdish political leaders and has good relations with Falih al-Fayyadh, chairman of the Popular Mobilization Forces, whom he met during one of his secret trips to Iraq in September 2022. Fidan notably conducted such bridge-building efforts during the formation of the current Iraqi government led by Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Given this background in Iraqi politics along with his experience in intelligence, Fidan is an important player through which Erdoğan can rethink Turkish involvement in Iraq on a number of different issues. Though Fidan’s appointment certainly indicates a shift toward more security-focused policies for Turkey, the new minister will also have to balance Turkey’s political ties, economic and energy interests, environmental concerns, and military operations in Iraq. Indeed, Erdoğan likely hopes that Fidan can both diversify Turkey’s relationship networks in Iraq and reestablish normalized energy negotiations with key partners while also curbing the threat of the PKK and Iranian-aligned militias operating in Turkey’s areas of involvement in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East
9. Sinjar: Challenges and Resilience Nine Years after Genocide
- Author:
- Izat Noah
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Nearly a decade later, many victims are still missing, and thousands now live in displacement camps in unstable, unsanitary conditions. This anniversary is an opportunity to reflect on the ongoing armed conflict in the Sinjar region and the profound influence on its inhabitants. It also serves as an opportunity to appreciate the resilience of the Yazidis, looking toward a future with new hope and new aspirations—a future where Yazidis can experience peace, stability, justice, and equitable opportunities to reconstruct their lives and their communities. Yazidi resilience is clearly evident in how they bore the burden of this genocide, how they have persevered in the face of ongoing persecution and genocide for centuries, and how they have been steadfast in maintaining their identity and heritage despite these adversities and the repeated campaigns to tarnish their image. Yet Yazidis still face significant challenges in Iraq today. Despite relative stability in the Sinjar region, there are concerns among the Yazidi population about the return of armed conflict between groups vying for influence. Even more troubling, the issue of expulsion and displacement remains unresolved despite the liberation of Sinjar from ISIS in 2015. Many Yazidis still live in displacement camps, where they are without their homes, their land, or their basic rights. These refugees have yet to be materially compensated for their losses.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Politics, Terrorism, and Yazidis
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Sinjar
10. How to Stop Iraqi Kurdistan’s “Bleeding”
- Author:
- Bilal Wahab
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In a recent letter to President Biden that was soon reinforced by three U.S. lawmakers, Prime Minister Masrour Barzani of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government expressed his alarm over the region’s survival. Noting that the KRG is “bleeding economically and hemorrhaging politically,” he laid the blame on Baghdad’s “dishonorable campaign” against Erbil. Barzani has a point—federal authorities have indeed been undoing the KRG’s hard-won autonomy in the years since the Islamic State fell and the Kurds launched an unsuccessful independence bid. Most notably, Baghdad has recentralized policymaking in the capital and blocked Kurdish oil exports amid a decade-old dispute over energy management. Yet Barzani’s narrative does not tell the whole story. The United States has long supported Iraqi Kurdistan’s autonomy, security, and development, fostering greater stability and pro-American sentiment. At the same time, however, Washington has overlooked the KRG’s vulnerabilities—namely, the internal divisions, corruption, and democratic backsliding that have diminished Erbil’s reliability and brought on the current existential crisis. The United States has a strategic interest in continuing to promote a stable and prosperous KRG, but it cannot do so without addressing the region’s internal problems.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Autonomy, and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan
11. The EU accession prospects of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia
- Author:
- Michael Emerson, Tinatin Akhvlediani, Denis Cenusa, Veronika Movchan, and Artem Remizov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- In the week following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 all three East European states associated with the EU – Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia – submitted applications to accede to the EU. In response, the European Commission published ‘Opinions’ in June, setting out in each case conditions that should be met for these applications to advance on the path towards membership. This paper reports on the first half-year of the work undertaken by the three states to meet these conditions. All three states have set in motion actions largely concerning the fundamental political and rule of law criteria for membership. In all cases there is much work in progress underway, with some conditions already met, and others at an earlier stage. For both Ukraine and Moldova, it is possible that the majority of conditions will be met in the course of 2023. For Georgia there are still some more basic political obstacles to be overcome. The Commission is due to publish in October 2023 comprehensive evaluations of the preparedness of each of the three states, and in the case that the conditions are largely met, the EU should as a next step open up the formal accession negotiation process. It is also recommended that the EU reform by that time the accession process itself, notably by switching to qualified majority voting on the details of the procedures, and better still adopting a staged accession process that would assure structured incentives for overcoming the blockages in the present system as seen in the Western Balkans.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Rule of Law, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Moldova, and Georgia
12. Climate Action, Geopolitical Risks and Strategic Policy: The Western Race to Secure Critical Raw Materials
- Author:
- Salvatore Finizio
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Climate action, economic competition and geopolitical shifts are more intertwined than ever. In the wake of the skyrocketing inflation and deteriorating China relations, United States President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law on 16 August 2022. Conceived as the foundation of the new US industrial policy, the IRA aims to rebuild the country’s industrial capacity, including 500 billion US dollars in new spending and tax breaks, among which almost 400 billion aimed at boosting clean energy.[1] Across the Atlantic, the European Union expressed concerns about the potential loss of industrial competitiveness resulting from the IRA. In response, the EU unveiled its own Green Deal Industrial Plan (GDIP) in February 2023.[2] The objective of this plan is to promote the enhancement of net-zero manufacturing capacities in order to meet the EU’s climate targets. Both the IRA and the GDIP have a common goal of reducing dependence on China, especially in clean technology, although through different approaches. The US focuses on bringing high-value production back to its shores, while the EU aims to develop and diversify supply chains.[3] This divergence is also reflected in the debate between “decoupling” and “derisking”, with the latter recently gaining prominence as policymakers recognise the challenges of completely reshoring supply chains domestically.[4] The US and the EU share industrial and geoeconomic objectives, but will also encounter similar challenges, in particular concerning the first stages of green supply chains. Despite their heterogeneous approaches, Western policymakers will in fact have to secure critical raw materials for clean technology manufacturing, with the aim of resourcing the energy transition.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, European Union, Institutions, Energy, and Raw Materials
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and United States of America
13. Europe is Stuck Over the Israel-Hamas War
- Author:
- Maria Luisa Fantappiè and Nathalie Tocci
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Since the horrific attack launched by Hamas on Israeli citizens on 7 October and the brutal ongoing Israeli military response, European governments and publics have rallied behind two diametrically opposite worldviews: unconditional support for Israel’s right to self-defence versus solidarity with Palestinians massacred by Israel’s military operation in Gaza. Europe should work proactively to chart its way in this inflammatory debate, rather than passively buying into the polarising narratives from Israeli and Arab public debates and allowing these to sow divisions, paralyse action, hamper credibility and poison democracies.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Hamas, Narrative, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
14. A Treaty Change for the European Defence Union
- Author:
- Nicoletta Pirozzi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Russian aggression against Ukraine was a turning point for European security and led the European Union and its member states to take important steps in the field of defence. The EU decided to use common funding to equip the Ukrainian government with arms and ammunition through the European Peace Facility for a total of 3.6 billion euro,[1] Germany allocated additional 100 billion euro to its defence budget,[2] Denmark joined the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP),[3] Finland entered NATO[4] and Sweden is willing to follow it soon. Time seems to be ripe for bold decisions on European defence, which would also need to consider a reform of existing provisions.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe
15. The Arctic within EU Strategies: A Renewed Centrality
- Author:
- Luca Cinciripini
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In June 2023, the Arctic Council resumed its work after a year’s suspension in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.[1] The Council is a pillar of the institutional architecture of the region; the main framework for cooperation between the Arctic states that also involves the North’s indigenous peoples in issues of environmental protection and sustainable development. In recent years, the overlap between climate and security crises has profoundly transformed the region, generating economic opportunities but also endangering local populations and amplifying international competition.[2] The European Union, which is increasingly interested in the issue of climate security (the multiplier effect of climate change and its, even indirect, impact on security risks spanning several dimensions – economic, human and political),[3] has long tried to devise an Arctic policy that takes into account such changes by tackling emerging challenges and grasping opportunities. To better address these issues, since 2013 the EU has been applying for full observer status to the Council; however, it has only been permitted to observe the organisation’s activities without a formalisation of its role. At the same time, however, to be able to play an active role in the region, the EU’s strategy must cover the full width of the Arctic institutional architecture, which encompasses a plurality of diplomatic, legal and institutional instruments that go beyond the framework of the Council.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Arctic
16. A Healthier and More Sustainable Global Food System: What is at Stake for the EU?
- Author:
- Marta Antonelli
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Fixing the global food system is arguably the most powerful leverage to nurture the world’s population while keeping human activity within the biophysical limits of the planet. Yet, food systems are today a threat to both human and planetary health, and thus require bold and forward-looking strategies as well as multi-stakeholder collaboration.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Health, Politics, Natural Resources, European Union, Food Security, and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- Europe
17. Inequalities and Local Infrastructure: The Challenges of Post-Covid Recovery Investments
- Author:
- Filippo Barbera
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Rather than being mere “productive environments”, localities embedded in infrastructure are distinctive living places in which communities of people live and establish a greater part of their daily social relationships. As a result, infrastructure represents the backbone of citizenship rights and strongly affect territorial inequalities. Infrastructure is chiefly understood in physical terms as reticulated systems of highways, pipes, wires or cables. This physical reductionism is by no means sufficient to encompass the multiple facets of the concept or to make sense of the many ways infrastructure affects socio-political inequalities. Knowledge infrastructure, for instance, may indicate robust networks of people, equipment and institutions that generate, share and maintain specific knowledge about the human and natural worlds. Infrastructure furthermore refers to the interplay between information technologies, transportation and other intermodal transport devices. All of these kinds of infrastructure affect inequalities in different ways.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Politics, Infrastructure, Governance, European Union, Sustainable Development Goals, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe
18. UK Must Engage with Argentina Over Future of Falkland Islands
- Author:
- Carole Concha Bell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- For Argentina, it’s position in the decades-old dispute over the British Overseas Territory remains clear: Las Malvinas son Argentinas.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Argentina, South America, and Falkland Islands
19. Costa Rica's Rush to the Right
- Author:
- Andrés León Araya
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- With second round presidential elections on April 3, the country faces high levels of voter abstention, an increasingly right-wing Congress, and a choice between two candidates ringed by controversy.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, Presidential Elections, and Right-Wing Politics
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Costa Rica
20. Progressive Politics Makes Gains in Colombia's Conservative Antioquia
- Author:
- Juliana Martínez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- After a record-breaking presidential primary, the Colombian Left has a fighting chance at winning the top office and challenging the legacy of the country's most powerful politician.
- Topic:
- Politics, Conservatism, Leftist Politics, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
21. The Feminist Revolution That Wasn't
- Author:
- Yoletty Bracho and Marisela Betancourt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Chavismo co-opted women’s rights rhetoric but failed to deliver on core feminist demands. For grassroots movements, abortion access remains a key struggle.
- Topic:
- Politics, Women, Feminism, Abortion, and Grassroots Organizing
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
22. 2022 Retrospective and Trends for 2023
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Marta Bautista Forcada, Symphony Chau, and Hanny Megally
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- One year ago, we started our analysis of trends in 2022 on a pessimistic note, including the long-lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic; macro-economic volatility; the risk of a war in Ukraine and escalating tensions over Iran and Taiwan; and increasing divisions between North and South and between China and the West. At the end of 2022, looking ahead to next year, we see some surprising grounds for optimism, even though many of the risks that we pointed to have come to pass. These trends include how multilateralism played a surprisingly successful role in Ukraine, as we consider the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the UN resolutions that passed relating to the conflict, along with agreements during the G20 summit in Bali. Other positive notes pertain to potentially transformative global agreements on damage and loss and international tax cooperation, and the absorption of longer-term lessons on inter-state aggression. However, on the negative end, we close the year facing multiple crises chasing the same (declining) pot of money—whether conflict, humanitarian, socio-economic or climate. For our team’s analysis of trends for 2023, there is a focus on nine areas where politics and economics are closely interlinked, and we expect this to be a dominant theme of 2023.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
23. Towards a Renewed Local Social and Political Covenant in Libya, Syria and Yemen
- Author:
- Ahmed Morsy
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- This SIPRI Insights Paper examines the domestic and external factors at play in Libya, Syria and Yemen and their impact on negotiating post-war peaceful settlements and shaping prospective social contracts. The paper’s argument is two-fold. Firstly, policymaking must move beyond a static approach to understanding these conflicts. Despite apparent stalemates, the three countries should be approached as ever-evolving simmering conflicts. Secondly, policymakers have to move below the national level in order to achieve various forms of localized social peace. Given the nature of these conflicts and the varied sub-national segmentation, the analysis concludes that community-level social and political covenants may offer a first building block towards nationwide social contracts and sustainable conflict resolution. The role of external actors, particularly the European Union (EU), is critical in paving the way for these local-level dialogues and negotiations in Libya, Syria and Yemen. In short, external powers, including the EU, should adopt policies that push for long-term resolution to achieve post-conflict stabilization rather than the opportunistic taking of sides.
- Topic:
- Politics, Arab Spring, Social Contract, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, and Syria
24. The Graveyard of Hubris – Yemen Annual Review 2021
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Through most of 2021, the armed Houthi movement appeared unstoppable. As their forces pushed relentlessly toward Marib city, the fall of the last government stronghold in the north began to seem inevitable. Rich in oil and gas, its loss would be a mortal blow to the spiraling economy and political legitimacy of the internationally recognized government. Along frontlines across the country, Houthi forces either held their ground or advanced, showing a cohesiveness, discipline and effectiveness unmatched by the motley array of armed groups opposing them. Houthi drones and ballistic missiles flew across the border into Saudi Arabia, and continued even in the face of retaliatory airstrikes, heightening the cost of conflict for the coalition. Houthi military efforts were buttressed by developments behind the frontlines and beyond Yemen’s borders. A significant threat to the movement emerged and vanished without the Houthis even having to respond. The group was designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in January 2021 as a swan song of the Trump administration in Washington, but the decision was rescinded less than a month later by newly inaugurated US President Joe Biden after the United Nations and aid organizations testified it would paralyze humanitarian operations. For Houthi leaders, it was an affirmation of their strategy of holding the wellbeing of the civilian population hostage, giving the international community the poisoned choice of abandoning people in need or propping up the Houthi state. The group has been able to marshal humanitarian assistance to underwrite economic activity in the areas it controls, helping to legitimate its rule and freeing up resources for its war effort. Houthi security forces have successfully suppressed dissent, and an ever-growing number of children and adults are indoctrinated into the group through the rewriting of school curricula and religious teachings at mosques. The economy remained relatively stable in Houthi-held areas, even as searing inflation took hold elsewhere in the country. Its apparent success has furthered the group’s zealotry and sense of impunity, both on display in September with the public executions of eight men and a minor in Sana’a. In sum, the Houthis’ theocratic state-building project continued to gain steam through 2021. The Graveyard of Hubris – Yemen Annual Review 2021 - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies https://sanaacenter.org/publications/the-yemen-review/16768
- Topic:
- Politics, Military Affairs, Economy, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Gulf Nations
25. Dancing in the Battle for the Mantle of the Politically “Modern”: An Interview with Victoria Philips
- Author:
- Victoria Philips and Daniel R. Quiroga-Villamarín
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- “It is that we continue to live as if this were the 20th century, even though we have formally moved to the 21st century,” lamented the former Bolshoi prima Ballerina Olga Smirnova as she announced her decision to defect to the Netherlands. I had just finished reading Victoria Philips’s monograph Martha Graham’s Cold War: The Dance of American Diplomacy (Oxford University Press, 2020) when I read Smirnova’s statement. In her innovative monograph, Philips places Smirnova’s decision in a longer history of moments where “[c]ulture met political aims, as private met public needs, and apolitical ideology served politics” (p. 2). Smirnova’s statement rests on the fact that her cri de paix situates itself above the political quagmire, in the higher realm of the arts—for the artist, as Philips notes, derives “deep political import” from her “claim to be apolitical” (p. 223). Philips provides us in this recent book with an innovative and relevant example of this “politics of antipolitics”: the life and works of Martha Graham. Through a carefully knitted narrative that spans decades of touring, Philips provides us with a detailed account of the role that the “Highest Priestess of Modern Dance in America” played during the Cold War. Drawing from archival sources all around the world, Philips captures the paradoxes, tensions, and contradictions that surrounded Graham’s involvement in a series of dance tours around the world in which she served as an emissary of Unitedstatesean soft power, in the midst of a international struggle for the mantle of political modernity. Indeed, just like Smirnova, Graham’s project was deeply anchored in a modernist understanding of time. But as Philips shows, the promise of modernity was full of ambiguities and ambivalence. Graham’s modernist dance was, at the same time, sacral and secular. It embraced womanhood but shunned organized female emancipation, or feminism. More dramatically, it elevated individualism but depended on the support of the state. Aesthetically, it claimed to represent abstract universal experiences but also purported to capture the particularity of Unitedstatesean (and even non-Western) cultural forms. As we saw above, it was politically antipolitical—and the list goes on. In our days, as Smirnova reminds us, the battle over the plural meanings of the “modern” is far from over. Perhaps, in that sense, we are all still living as if this were the 20th century. In our conversation, we explore what Professor Phillip’s book reveals about the ghosts of the Cold War and their claims to modernity that still haunt our political and aesthetical imaginaries.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Politics, History, Culture, Interview, and Dance
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
26. Inclusion and Exclusion in International Ordering: An Interview with Glenda Sluga
- Author:
- Glenda Sluga and Daniel R. Quiroga-Villamarín
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- The image of two men, sitting awkwardly across each other in a solemn conference table, suddenly sprouted everywhere in my Twitter feed last winter. As a terrifying war erupted over competing visions of eastern Europe’s place in the international order, this somewhat surreal picture of the rulers of France and Russia conferencing offered little respite. It was precisely at this time that I had the pleasure to converse with the incoming Toynbee Prize Foundation President Glenda Sluga about her most recent monographThe Invention of International Order: Remaking Europe after Napoleon (Princeton University Press). As the so-called international order comes under increasing pressure in Ukraine and beyond, Sluga’s timely book invites us to engage with the “two centuries of multilateral principles, practices, and expectations” to understand the promises and limits of our contemporary arrangements (p. xi). It places the recent meeting between Macron and Putin in the context of the rise and consolidation of “a new professional, procedural, and bureaucratic approach to diplomacy, based on the sociability of men” (p. 6). After all, our modern notions of international “politics” or “society” were forged in the aftermath of a previous European-wide conflagration that had France and Russia at its helm: the Napoleonic wars. Sluga’s account does not aim to blindly celebrate nor to categorically condemn this modern political imaginary of international ordering. Others have dismissed the post-Napoleonic diplomatic constellation as reactionary or have lauded it as protoliberal. Sluga, above all, is interested in questioning it. She invites us to: reflect on for whom this order has been built; push against the ways it narrows our perspective; and grapple with its inner tensions and contradictions (p. 282). At the heart of the book, I would suggest, lies a concern about the paradoxical record of European modernity: a project that “has offered an expansive horizon of political expectations but delivered a voice only for some” (p. 7). By taking women, non-Europeans, and “non-state” actors seriously as political agents, she shows how bankers, Jews, or ambassadrices were ironically crucial in the making of a system that came to exclude them from the historical record. And, unsurprisingly, these exclusions lead to tensions that threaten to upend international order from within and without—from 1821, 1848, or 1853 to 2022. In our conversation, we attempt to make sense of these paradoxes, contradictions, and ambiguities of international ordering.
- Topic:
- Politics, History, Multilateralism, Interview, Exclusion, International Order, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
27. Global Food Insecurity – The Danger of Misguided Food Production Policies: The Case of Sri Lanka
- Author:
- Paul Teng and Jose M. L. Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated food insecurity worldwide and encouraged various countries to find new ways to manage this threat, including policies to substitute costly imported agricultural inputs like synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. Sri Lanka’s recent experience shows that drastic policy changes can have disastrous political and societal consequences.
- Topic:
- Politics, Food, Food Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Sri Lanka
28. Violent Fraternity: An Interview with Dr. Shruti Kapila
- Author:
- Shruti Kapila and Mahia Bashir
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- Historical considerations of modern South Asia have been marked by a predisposition towards political, material and socio-cultural analyses. Seldom has the remit of ideas as autonomous objects taken centre stage in the historiography of modern South Asia. Shruti Kapila’s new book Violent Fraternityveers off this established trajectory and breaks new ground by looking at ideas as the wellspring of political innovation and fundamental to the republication foundations of the nations of India and Pakistan during what she terms the ‘Indian age’. A work of remarkable scope that defies easy summarisation, the premise of Violent Fraternity is that violence became fraternal in 20th-century India: it was the intimate kin rather than the colonial other that became the object of unprecedented violence. “Violence, fraternity and sovereignty,” Kapila writes, “made up an intimate, deadly and highly consequential triangle of concepts that produced what has been termed here the Indian Age” (p.4) India’s founding fathers, who as opposed to the conventional figure of the detached scholar-philosopher were also actively straddling echelons of the political world, repeatedly engaged with the question of how to forge life with others in an intimate context rife with hatred and violence. In seeking these answers, they authored a new canon of political thought that defied “fidelity to any given ideology, whether it be liberalism, Marxism or communism”. As Kapila demonstrates, global political thought of the Indian age departed from its western counterpart by reconceptualising the place and potential of violence. In the western canon, the state has been the natural habitus of violence. However, Indian political thinkers like Tilak and Gandhi dissociated violence from the orbit of state, and in a radical rewriting of established political vocabularies, posited violence as an individual capacity, thereby reconceptualising the notion of sovereignty and summoning a subject-centred political horizon. Dr. Shruti Kapila is an Associate Professor of Indian History and Global Political Thought at the University of Cambridge and presently the Co-Director of the Global Humanities Initiative. Her research centres on modern and contemporary India and on global political thought in the twentieth century. In her recent book Violent Fraternity and in her earlier work on intellectual history of modern India, Dr. Kapila has pushed the boundaries of the field beyond its conventional focus on the West. In our interview, we spoke about modern India’s founding fathers and their intellectual contributions, writing global intellectual histories of the non-west, the future of the field of global intellectual history and Dr. Kapila’s engagements beyond her illustrious academic career.
- Topic:
- Politics, History, Intellectual History, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
29. Inclusion and Exclusion in International Ordering: An Interview with Glenda Sluga
- Author:
- Glenda Sluga and Daniel R. Quiroga-Villamarín
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- The image of two men, sitting awkwardly across each other in a solemn conference table, suddenly sprouted everywhere in my Twitter feed last winter. As a terrifying war erupted over competing visions of eastern Europe’s place in the international order, this somewhat surreal picture of the rulers of France and Russia conferencing offered little respite. It was precisely at this time that I had the pleasure to converse with the incoming Toynbee Prize Foundation President Glenda Sluga about her most recent monographThe Invention of International Order: Remaking Europe after Napoleon (Princeton University Press). As the so-called international order comes under increasing pressure in Ukraine and beyond, Sluga’s timely book invites us to engage with the “two centuries of multilateral principles, practices, and expectations” to understand the promises and limits of our contemporary arrangements (p. xi). It places the recent meeting between Macron and Putin in the context of the rise and consolidation of “a new professional, procedural, and bureaucratic approach to diplomacy, based on the sociability of men” (p. 6). After all, our modern notions of international “politics” or “society” were forged in the aftermath of a previous European-wide conflagration that had France and Russia at its helm: the Napoleonic wars. Sluga’s account does not aim to blindly celebrate nor to categorically condemn this modern political imaginary of international ordering. Others have dismissed the post-Napoleonic diplomatic constellation as reactionary or have lauded it as protoliberal. Sluga, above all, is interested in questioning it. She invites us to: reflect on for whom this order has been built; push against the ways it narrows our perspective; and grapple with its inner tensions and contradictions (p. 282). At the heart of the book, I would suggest, lies a concern about the paradoxical record of European modernity: a project that “has offered an expansive horizon of political expectations but delivered a voice only for some” (p. 7). By taking women, non-Europeans, and “non-state” actors seriously as political agents, she shows how bankers, Jews, or ambassadrices were ironically crucial in the making of a system that came to exclude them from the historical record. And, unsurprisingly, these exclusions lead to tensions that threaten to upend international order from within and without—from 1821, 1848, or 1853 to 2022. In our conversation, we attempt to make sense of these paradoxes, contradictions, and ambiguities of international ordering.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, History, Exclusion, International Order, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Europe
30. How Authoritarian Legacies Play a Role in Shaping Electoral Volatility in Asia
- Author:
- Don S. Lee and Fernando Casel Bertoa
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- High electoral volatility can result in the disillusionment of the democratic system, allowing illiberal politicians and anti-political-establishment parties to gain a foothold. In this briefing, Don S. Lee, an Assistant Professor in the School of Governance and the Department of Public Administration at Sungkyunkwan University, and Fernando Casal Bertoa, an Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham, evaluate the impacts of different authoritarian legacies on electoral volatility across Asia. Their study also analyzes the effect time has on the electoral stability of democracies across varying authoritarian legacies. Finally, they explain how through deliberate routinization of political behavior, political leaders can protect democracy and stabilize party politics, regardless of their country’s authoritarian history.
- Topic:
- Politics, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Asia
31. South Korea’s 2022 Presidential Election: A Vox Populi that is Evenly Divided
- Author:
- Jung Kim
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- During the recent March election, presidential candidate Suk-yeol Yoon of the opposition party overtook candidate Jae-myung Lee of the current ruling party by a close margin. Jung Kim, Professor at the University of North Korean Studies, points out that upon entering office, present-elect Yoon will be faced with the challenges of a divided cabinet, divided government, and divided public. He explains that this is due to extensive partisan mobilization and that the future of Korean democracy lies in the Yoon administration`s response to such multi-level challenges.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
32. Political Polarization in Asia: Cleavages and Agencies of Polarization in India, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand
- Author:
- Sook Jong Lee
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Political polarization is a process of simplifying politics by presenting either-or-choices to the public. In many cases, polarization damages democracy by dividing the electorate into two mutually mistrustful camps. Political polarization is mainly used by political elites, including government and party leaders, as a strategy to mobilize their supporters and concentrate their power. Based on the literature of political polarization, EAI Senior Fellow Sook Jong Lee (professor at Sungkyunkwan University) examines four Asian case countries (India, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand). The author notes that characteristics of political polarization differ from country to country, which is evidenced through the division of political ideology during various Thai military coups and the separation between the Hindu and Muslim communities in India. She also warns against the possible aftermaths of political polarization such as the breakdown or erosion of democracy.
- Topic:
- Politics, Democracy, Polarization, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- India, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, and Thailand
33. Politics, War and Eastern Mediterranean Gas
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the past two months, there have been several significant, interlocking developments regarding Eastern Mediterranean gas. In January, the Biden Administration withdrew American support for the Israeli-Cypriot-Greek EastMed gas pipeline. In February, U.S. officials shuttled between Israel and Lebanon for another round of talks to resolve the question of the maritime border and the exclusive rights to exploit gas in their disputed waters. Most importantly, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which began in late February, has transformed the long-discussed European need to reduce its dependence on Russian gas (and oil) into an urgent priority. It has also exposed the disconnect between optimistic policies that anticipated an imminent shift to renewable resources and the reality that the developed world will, in the short- to medium-term, remain dependent on fossil fuels. Confronted with this new reality, does Europe's need to rapidly diversify its sources of energy increase the strategic value of Eastern Mediterranean gas? And can the Eastern Mediterranean contribute meaningfully to reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Politics, War, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, and United States of America
34. Tunisia’s Turbulence: On the Road to Economic and Political Collapse
- Author:
- Daniel Zisenwine
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Thousands of Tunisians took to the streets of the capital Tunis in mid-March, demonstrating against Tunisian president Kais Saied’s July 2021 power grab and the country’s ongoing economic crisis. Citing alleged threats to Tunisia’s political order, Saied dismissed the government on July 25, 2021, suspended parliament, and moved to rule by decree. Critics, including opposition Islamist parties but also the country’s powerful trade unions, civil society groups, and foreign experts have since assailed Saied’s moves, contending that he effectively re-imposed one-man rule on Tunisia, and secured unchecked control over all branches of government. This political crisis intensified in late March, after Saied dissolved the Tunisian parliament which convened online and voted to repeal his decrees. The March protest differed from previous ones, as it was organized by the anti-Islamist Free Destourian Party (FDP), which has been critical of democratic measures adopted in Tunisia after the 2011 revolution that overthrew Zayn al-ʾAbidin Ben ʿAli’s authoritarian regime. The protest, led by a right-wing party not unsympathetic to some of Saeid’s grievances, focused on the president and the deteriorating economic crisis.[1] It was another indication of Tunisia’s growing unrest.
- Topic:
- Politics, Democracy, Civil Unrest, Economic Crisis, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
35. Is there anything new in Mansour Abbas’ declaration concerning the “Jewish State”?
- Author:
- Arik Rudnitzky
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The current issue of Bayan includes two articles that discuss the ideological and political characteristics of the Ra’am party, which is the political arm of the Islamic Movement, headed by Mansour Abbas. Dr. Arik Rudnitzky's article examines the declaration by Abbas regarding the Jewish State from a historical point of view.
- Topic:
- Politics, History, Ideology, Arabs, and Mansour Abbas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
36. Walking out of the Woods: EU Industrial Policy between the Energy Crisis and Decarbonisation
- Author:
- Pier Paolo Raimondi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Europe is in the midst of a profound and complex energy crisis. This is not limited to the gas sector as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but involves all energy sources. French nuclear generation, for example, has fallen to a thirty-year low over the past year due to maintenance works and corrosion.[1] Due to extreme heat over summer, unprecedented drought has reduced hydropower generation as well as the possibility to import coal by river.[2] Oil has not been immune to turbulences either. The EU embargo on Russian crude oil finally began on 5 December 2022, coupled with a price cap at 60 US dollars/barrel generating uncertainty over future supply and prices. In February 2023, the second step of the embargo, on refined products, will kick in, with diesel potentially becoming the next chapter of the European energy crisis.[3]
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Institutions, Industry, Decarbonization, and Energy Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
37. Palestinian Flags and Warm Embraces: Politics and Arabism at the World Cup in Qatar
- Author:
- Francesco Belcastro
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The 2022 men’s football World Cup ended with Argentina’s victory over France, in what has already been dubbed by some fans as ‘the best final in world cup history’. While observers have praised the quality of football on display, the political dimension of the event has been a constant theme throughout the tournament. Arabism and solidarity with Palestine[1] have certainly been one of the key political aspects of the World Cup. But are the different expressions of Arab solidarity we have witnessed spontaneous and popular – in other words, do they reflect a strong popular feeling among Arab supporters, players and, in some cases, even leaders? Or are they limited manifestations of Arab identity and solidarity allowed within a controlled environment, or even worst, orchestrated events?
- Topic:
- Politics, Sports, Solidarity, World Cup, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Morocco, and Qatar
38. The World After the Pandemic: European Unity and the Challenge of Reviving Multilateralism
- Author:
- Sonia Bianconi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Covid-19 has dramatically re-focussed the world’s attention on the adverse implications of globalisation. Coming on the heels of the 2008 financial crisis, the global pandemic has further weakened the image and credibility of the United States, causing the West to lose appeal compared to a more authoritarian but equally efficient East.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Politics, European Union, Multilateralism, Institutions, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America
39. Covid-19 and the International Liberal Order: Goodbye “Global”, Hello “Regional”?
- Author:
- Irene Paviotti
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Covid-19 crisis is broadly recognised as a watershed moment in world history, prompting a radical rethink of social norms and accelerating a number of pre-existing geopolitical trends. When it comes to globalisation and multilateralism, two defining features of the current international order, the pandemic has accelerated a move towards regionalism on the one hand and clearly exposed the shortcomings of an unequal multilateral system on the other.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Health, Political Economy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
40. Europe and Covid-19: Never Waste a Good Crisis
- Author:
- Chiara Andreazza
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- "Democracy is based on the promise of social mobility and improvement, a path that leads to increasing well-being, particularly for the middle class. If incomes fall and inequalities sharpen, then democracies collapse.” Italian philosopher, Massimo Cacciari, used these words to describe the present crisis that western liberal democracies are facing. Years have passed since the first signs of citizen distrust towards social institutions and governing elites became apparent. Such sentiments have led to an increase in populist politics and authoritarian tendencies, characterised by charming leaders and strongman politics, which in turn have challenged certain elements of liberal democracy.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Democracy, Legitimacy, Institutions, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
41. Covid-19 and the Multilateral System: What Role for the EU?
- Author:
- Roberto Baccarini
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Covid-19 represents a critical juncture for the European Union. The crisis catalysed the weakening of the post-Cold War international order and the emergence of a multipolar world, presenting Europe with significant, even existential challenges.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Multilateralism, Institutions, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
42. Europe's Polish Question
- Author:
- Riccardo Perissich
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- European history has on several occasions been confronted with a “Polish question”. It did not always end well, especially for Poland. This time around, the issue that has placed the Polish government led by the populist Law and Justice party (PiS), the institutions of the EU and most of its member states at loggerheads is unlikely to end in bloodshed, but it nevertheless remains dangerous. The Commission and the European Court of Justice (ECJ) have established that recent reforms to the Polish judiciary undermine the independence of the courts and the principle of a separation of powers; among them the creation of a disciplinary body under political control that can censure Polish judges. The Polish Supreme Court, conversely, has responded that such ruling is incompatible with the country’s constitution. What makes the question particularly complicated is that it is tri-dimensional.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Regional Integration, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
43. The AUKUS Partnership: A Wake-up Call for Europe
- Author:
- Gabriele Abbondanza
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Now that some dust has settled over the surprise announcement of AUKUS on 16 September, it is possible to analyse the implications of this partnership not just for its members, but for Europe as well.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Politics, European Union, Partnerships, Maritime, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, and Asia-Pacific
44. Europe’s Strategic Compass: Merits and Shortcomings
- Author:
- Riccardo Perissich
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Europe’s “Strategic Compass” proposes a number of initiatives to enable the EU to act in the security and defence domain and confront the many challenges impacting European interests. The document, prepared by the European External Action Service (EEAS) under the responsibility of Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative and Vice President of the Commission, will be debated by defence and foreign ministers over the next few months and subsequently adopted as an official strategy statement sometime during the French Presidency of the European Council next year.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Politics, Military Affairs, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
45. Under Observation: The Libyan conflict and the election of a new government
- Author:
- Ahmed Abdel-Alim Hassan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The internationally-supported political dialogue forum in Geneva succeeded in selecting a new government, including Abdul Hamid Mohammed al-Dabaib as Prime Minister, and Muhammad Al-Manfi as President of the Presidential Council as well as two other members of the Council. These results were well received internally, regionally and internationally, which raises a key question relevant to the ability of the new government, though temporary, to effect positive accomplishments leading to the general elections in December 2021.
- Topic:
- Politics, Conflict, Transition, Khalifa Haftar, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
46. Governing Parameters: Will the New Governments in Israel and Iran Affect the Ongoing Tensions Between Them?
- Author:
- Rania Makram
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Israel and Iran are witnessing significant political changes that affected the ruling elites. The developments came in the wake of early legislative elections held in Israel in March leading to the formation of a new coalition government headed by Naftali Benett, leader of the right-wing party Yamina. In Iran, presidential elections held on June 18, were won by hardline chief justice Ebrahim Raisi. The internal political dynamics in Tel Aviv and Tehran cast a shadow on the whole political landscape in both countries, and are projected to have an impact on the trajectory of the non-traditional conflict between the two sides, which escalated over the past few months.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
47. Bottom-Up Change: Motives behind Erdoğan strategy in ‘politicizing’ the first religious channel for children
- Author:
- Abdel Latif Hegazy
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On June 7, 2021, Ali Erbaş, President of Directorate of Religious Affairs in Turkey, and İbrahim Ärän, Director of the Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT), signed a cooperation protocol to establish a religious channel for children, which would be the first of its kind in Turkey. Within this context, Erbaş, said, "We have not been able to present Islamic values to children over the past years, since we used to show them animated cartoons designed by foreign companies." He emphasized the need to exert efforts to sustain children with correct religious knowledge. The government’s establishment of a religious channel for children has raised questions regarding the dimensions and motives of this step currently, particularly since there is a Turkish tendency to politicize and use religion to serve the political and electoral motives of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
- Topic:
- Politics, Religion, Children, Islamism, and Erdogan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
48. Restoring the Balance: The economic and political motives for the 'New Mashriq' Project
- Author:
- Muthana Al-Obeidi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The New Mashriq Plan, which was announced in the Baghdad tripartite summit (which brought together president Abdel-Fattah El-sisi of Egypt, King Abdullah II of Jordan, and the Iraqi prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi), stimulated a lot of analyses, which reflected two opposing views. Some analysts seemed to be overly optimistic about the outcomes of this Iraqi-Egyptian-Jordanian project. On the other hand, others adopted a more skeptical, even pessimistic, attitude, believing that it will fail to achieve its purpose, on account of the many challenges it has to face. Despite all the analyses available about the project, questions are still being raised, such as: How did the project develop? What is its economic agenda? What about its political dimensions? And, last but not least, what will its future be like?
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan
49. The Likely Scenario: Possible trajectories after Tunisia’s President exceptional decisions
- Author:
- Ahmed Nazif
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On the 64th anniversary of the Republic, President Kais Saied chose to declare ‘state of imminent danger’, invoking the constitution shaped by the Islamist Ennahda movement. On July 25, Saied took exceptional decisions ousting the government led by Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi, freezing the activities of parliament, and stripping parliament members of legal immunity. He considers the measures necessary for saving the state. The political forces took different stands depending on their position in the political hierarchy as well as their closeness to President Saeid.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Government, Politics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
50. Restoring the Role: The Algerian mediation role in the region, various motivators and challenges
- Author:
- Mahmoud Gamal
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Algeria's mediation endeavors are based on a well-established foreign policy of creating stability in the region and maintaining the status quo, for fear of any radical change that could lead to chaos and instability. This rule stems mainly from the political memory that has been lingering since the events of the ‘Black Decade’, which almost destroyed Algeria and its stability. This analysis highlights indications of the growing Algerian mediation endeavors in various recent crises in the region, such as the situation in Tunisia following president Kais Saied's decisions on July 25, 2021, the Libyan crisis and the complex political transition, the crisis of the Renaissance Dam between Egypt and Sudan on the one hand and Ethiopia on the other, as well as the crisis in Mali.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Transition, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, Ethiopia, and Mali
51. Appointing Mikati: Will it be the last chance for Lebanon?
- Author:
- Nawar Samad
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On July 26, 2021, Lebanese President Michel Aoun appointed former Prime Minister Najib Mikati, to form a new government, after Saad al-Hariri's apology ending a rough 9 months path of fruitless negotiations with President Aoun. Despite optimism surrounding the formation of the new government by Mikati, highlighted by President Aoun’s statement on August 14 that he hopes "white smoke" will appear soon with regards to the formation of a new government, a key question remains: Will Mikati succeed in dismantling the complications that hindered forming a new government, particularly with the emergence of new domestic and regional dilemmas?
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Military Affairs, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
52. How concerning is Bolsonaro’s recent political and military shakeup?
- Author:
- Ryan C. Berg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- urbulent politics and a deep shakeup in Brasilia have many concerned for the stability of Jair Bolsonaro’s administration. The stampede of ministerial exits started early this week with the resignation of foreign minister Ernesto Araújo. The defense minister followed suit shortly thereafter. By day’s end, six ministers had either resigned or moved to new posts — about one-third of Bolsonaro’s cabinet. Perhaps more concerning than the political overhaul was what transpired one day after the ministerial shakeup: the leadership restructuring within Brazil’s armed forces — occurring, no less, one day before the 57th anniversary of the military coup. The heads of all three major branches — the army, the navy, and the air force — resigned en masse, purportedly over concerns for their independence, handing Bolsonaro the opportunity to handpick their successors. Brazil witnessed something analogous only once before — in 1977, under the turbulent rule of military dictator Ernesto Geisel. This has left some Brazil watchers fretting that an insecure Bolsonaro could be laying the foundations “for his own January 6.”
- Topic:
- Politics, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Populism, and Jair Bolsonaro
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
53. To the Viktor Go the Spoils: What Orbán Needs to Form a New Political Camp in Europe
- Author:
- Milan Nič and Julian Rappold
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The next months will show whether Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán can retain his influence in Europe even outside its largest political family. Having left the center-right European People’s Party before his party was finally pushed out, Orbán is now trying to regroup and unite the populist and Euroskeptic forces in European Parliament. What looks like a defeat could still be turned to his advantage if it leads to a lasting reshuffle of political alliances and strengthens illiberal voices.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Populism, and European Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Hungary
54. Assessing China and Russia’s Influence on the German Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Didi Kirsten Tatlow and András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- China and Russia want to maintain Germany’s political status quo: Centrist, at times mercantilist policies, have often worked in their favor. Now, with the Green Party ascendant and public opinion shifting, neither Russia nor China can be sure that classic "centrism” will emerge after September. Russia and China will increase their influence and interference efforts in the run-up to the election and beyond, using informational, political, and cyber tactics, and economic and political networks.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Public Opinion, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia
55. Coalition Falls Back in Hudaydah, Fighting Shifts South – The Yemen Review, November 2021
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- A surprise decision by the UAE-backed Joint Forces to withdraw from areas south of Hudaydah city and the surrounding governorate shook up the military situation on Yemen’s Red Sea coast.[1] The largest members of the Joint Forces are the Giants Brigade, Tariq Saleh’s National Resistance Forces and the Tihama Resistance. The withdrawal, which began on November 9, saw the Joint Forces move out 15,000 fighters and abandon frontlines in Hudaydah city, home to Yemen’s busiest port, as well as in Al-Durayhimi and Bayt al-Faqih districts, and from the majority of Al-Tuhayta district. The frontlines had been active but largely static since the December 2018 UN-sponsored Stockholm Agreement, which ended a Saudi-led coalition push to take Hudaydah city. The UN and the Yemeni government said they had no advance notice of the withdrawal,[2] and it appeared as though the Joint Forces’ own units were confused about how it would be carried out. The process was disorganized, with units disputing the order of withdrawal with one another. Houthi forces took advantage of this, shelling Joint Forces positions and causing dozens of casualties, according to local military sources. Hundreds of Joint Forces fighters were captured by Houthi forces. The Joint Forces withdrew to the south, establishing a new defensive line from the Al-Himah area, in southwestern Al-Tuhayat district, to Hays district, about 40 kilometers to the east. The official explanation from the Joint Forces was that the withdrawal corrected what it called the “mistake” of remaining in defensive positions while frontlines elsewhere in Yemen needed support.[3] In effect, the terms of the Stockholm Agreement prevented the Joint Forces from making any serious attempt to advance in Hudaydah since 2018. Coalition Falls Back in Hudaydah, Fighting Shifts South – The Yemen Review, November 2021 - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies https://sanaacenter.org/publications/the-yemen-review/15894
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, Economy, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Gulf Nations
56. The View from Sana’a – The Yemen Review, Summer Edition, July 2021
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia
57. Houthis at the Gates of Marib – The Yemen Review, January-February 2021
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Conflict, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
58. Violence Targeting Women in Politics: Trends in Targets, Types, and Perpetrators of Political Violence
- Author:
- Roudabeh Kishi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The addition of identity types to ACLED data on political violence targeting women sheds new light on the physical threats to women’s participation in political processes, such as running for or holding office, supporting or voting for political candidates, leading human rights campaigns or civil society initiatives, and more. This report analyzes the expanded data to unpack key trends in violence targeting women in politics. Download the expanded data and read the updated Political Violence Targeting Women FAQs for more information about ACLED methodology.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Politics, Women, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
59. Cooperation or Coercion? The Views of US Opinion Leaders on Foreign Policy Approaches
- Author:
- Craig Kafura, Dina Smeltz, Joshua W. Busby, Joshua D. Kertzer, and Jonathan Monten
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- Following four years of former President Donald Trump’s “America first” foreign policy, President Joe Biden is seeking to reorient the US approach to world affairs, placing much greater emphasis on international cooperation. This reorientation has already been evident in Biden’s decisions to return the United States to the Paris climate agreement, extend the New START arms control treaty with Russia, remain in the World Health Organization, reengage with the United Nations Human Rights Council, and commit to rejoining the Iran nuclear deal if Iran returns to complying with it. To what extent do Democratic, Republican, and Independent foreign policy professionals support Biden’s international agenda? The results of the 2020 Chicago Council on Global Affairs-University of Texas at Austin survey of more than 900 US executive branch officials, congressional staff, think tank scholars, university professors, journalists, and interest group representatives indicates there is substantial support among leaders of different political persuasions for a greater emphasis on cooperation and less reliance on coercion in foreign policy. However, this consensus also has a partisan tilt: Democrats and Independents are far more likely to agree on cooperative foreign policy approaches the United States should use, while Republicans are more comfortable with coercive measures. Taken together, these findings suggest that Biden should be able to attract strong support for his foreign policy from Democratic and Independent members of the foreign 2 policy community but will find it much more difficult to gain Republican backing for many of his international initiatives.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, Economy, Business, Trade, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and North America
60. Russians See Greater Reward than Risk in Closer Relations with China
- Author:
- Dina Smeltz, Brendan Helm, Denis Volkov, and Stepan Goncharov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- As Russia and China grow closer through economic ties, a joint Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Levada Analytical Center survey finds that the Russian public sees little downside to the growing bilateral relationship. With China and Russia on the outs with the United States, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have broadened bilateral economic and military cooperation over the last few years. Recent cooperation has included energy and infrastructure projects, and even a little bit of panda diplomacy. While some observers warn about the potential risk that Russia may grow too dependent on Beijing, a joint Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Levada Analytical Center survey finds that the Russian public sees little downside to the growing bilateral relationship.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Asia
61. Americans Split on Military Aid to Israel, Say Political Status Quo Unacceptable
- Author:
- Dina Smeltz and Emily Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- Ahead of Prime Minister Bennett's first visit to Washington, Council data show partisan divides on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, support for a Palestinian state, and more. In recent years, the US-Israel relationship was stewarded by Israel’s longest-serving leader, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the man whom he referred to as “the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House,” former President Donald Trump. This week, the first meeting between the two countries’ newly elected leaders, President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, will set the tone for a new era of US-Israel relations. New data from the 2021 Chicago Council Survey indicate that some differences in ideas about US policy toward Israel on Capitol Hill—heightened by the 11-day clash between Israel and Hamas last May—have corresponding divisions among the American public. The US public is sharply divided along partisan lines on key issues, including whether to take a side in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, support for a Palestinian state, and restrictions on the uses of military aid to Israel. Moreover, it’s not just Americans who are at odds with each other. A comparison of the recent Chicago Council Survey and a Viterbi Family Center poll shows that the American public and Jewish Israelis have opposing views on what might be acceptable solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while Israeli Arabs and Americans are broadly aligned on acceptable political outcomes.
- Topic:
- Politics, Foreign Aid, Military Affairs, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and United States of America
62. Disappointed in Rouhani, Iranians Seek a Different Sort of Leader in June Elections
- Author:
- Brendan Helm, Dina Smeltz, and Amir Farmanesh
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- New indirect talks between the United States and Iran on a return to the Iran deal could help the outlook for a moderate candidate in the next election. Iranian presidential elections are set for June 18. The current president, Hassan Rouhani, who earned initial praise in Iran after successful negotiations for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, is ineligible for reelection and has steadily lost public support after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018. A joint survey of the Iranian public conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and IranPoll provides insights into how Iranians view this pivotal moment for Iran. Iranians view Rouhani’s policies quite negatively, especially his economic policies, and for their next leader they want someone who is critical of Rouhani. However, while Iranians did not feel the economic improvements from the JCPOA they expected, new indirect talks between the United States and Iran on a return to the agreement could help the outlook for a moderate candidate.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
63. Public Attitudes on US Intelligence 2020: Final Trump-Era Survey Confirms Broad Popular Support, Reveals Opportunities for Greater Transparency
- Author:
- Stephen Slick and Joshua W. Busby
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- A final Trump-Era survey confirms broad popular support for the intelligence community and reveals opportunities for greater transparency. The University of Texas-Austin’s 2020 survey reaffirmed Americans’ broad-based belief that our intelligence agencies are vital to protecting the nation and effective in accomplishing their core missions. Our fourth annual poll was the last conducted during Donald Trump’s presidency. The high levels of public support for the intelligence community (IC) recorded over the life of this project have proven stable and remarkably resilient to the persistent public criticism by the former president and his political allies. Close examination of the survey data may help inform a strategy aimed at further enhancing the IC’s democratic legitimacy through increased openness and renewed public engagement. Indeed, a majority of the participants in our 2020 survey agreed that the IC could share more information with the American people without compromising its effectiveness.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Politics, Public Opinion, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
64. Kishida’s Onerous Task After the General Election: The Promotion of Democracy in Domestic and World Politics
- Author:
- Jaeun Yun
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- On October 31, the general election was held in Japan. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a comfortable majority in the lower house, winning 261 seats. Professor Jaeun Yun states this election shows that the majority of Japanese people tend to approve of the Kishida administration. He also points out that the Kishida administration, albeit securing a comfortable majority, needs to address two issues: to recover democracy in domestic politics and to carry out realistic foreign policy for the promotion of democracy in world politics. In order to promote and contribute to democracy domestically and internationally, he suggests that “reluctant realism” could turn out to be “realistic proactive pacifism.”
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
65. An Emergence of Youth Participation in Malaysian Politics
- Author:
- Faiz Zaidi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- The number of young people in Malaysia is growing, and they are more politically aware and active than they have been in the past. In this briefing, Faiz Zaidi from the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs highlights the importance of youth participation in Malaysian democracy. The case of the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA), the first youth-centric political party, demonstrates the need for a clear vision that could benefit the democratic process in Malaysia. As the party tries to break away from old politics and bring up issues more relevant to young voters, social media presents a special opportunity to interact with potential voters, that can participate in the political discussion virtually. However, some challenges are expected for youth aspiring to participate in the political game such as ones caused by the Societies Act of 1966 or the lack of resources.
- Topic:
- Politics, Democracy, Social Media, and Youth
- Political Geography:
- Malaysia and Southeast Asia
66. The Role of Korea’s Election Commission and the Quality of Elections
- Author:
- Woo Chang Kang
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- According to the Varieties of Democracy Institute, the freedom and fairness of South Korea’s elections have improved dramatically since the country first democratized. Figure 1 below shows how the quality of South Korea’s elections has changed between 1948 and 2020 (“election was free and fair” is indicated in blue) and the country’s rating on the Electoral Democracy Index (indicated in red). There was little change in election quality and the democracy index in the 40 years that followed the constitutional election of 1948. With the change to a direct election system implemented in 1987, the freedom and fairness of South Korea’s elections shot up, and the country’s rating on the democracy index increased greatly as well.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
67. Reasons for Russia’s War on Ukraine and its foreseeable consequences on Latin America
- Author:
- Nancy Janett García Vázquez
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- This article analyzes the historical and political reasons that, in the author's opinion, have led to the war unleashed by the Russian Federation against Ukraine. It is also its purpose to analyze the war' imediate and mediate impacts at the international level, as well as its eventual consequences in the Latin American region.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, War, History, Economy, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Caribbean
68. Resilience Is Dead. Long Live Resilience?
- Author:
- Elena A. Korosteleva and Irina Petrova
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Resilience has recently emerged as a possible solution to address the increasing dysfunctionality of national and global governance, strengthening its ability to deal with the frequenting crises and the adversity of VUCA – the more vulnerable, uncertain, complex and ambiguous – world around us.
- Topic:
- Politics, International Relations Theory, Institutions, Coronavirus, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Europe and European Union
69. The Trump Plan: Not the Way to Advance Israeli-Palestinian Peace
- Author:
- Nadav Tamir, Nimrod Goren, Lior Lehrs, Yonatan Touval, Elie Podeh, Ksenia Svetlova, Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, Merav Kahana-Dagan, Barukh Binah, and Roee Kibrik
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Following the publication of the Trump plan, Mitvim Institute experts argue that this is not the way to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace. This document includes initial commentaries by Nadav Tamir, who claims that Israel needs a real peace plan; Dr. Nimrod Goren, who calls on the international community to say “no” to the Trump plan; Dr. Lior Lehrs, who explains that on the Jerusalem issue, Trump shatters the status quo and previous understandings; Yonatan Touval, who argues that Trump takes problematic diplomatic practices of his predecessors to the extreme; Prof. Elie Podeh, who contends that the Trump plan is not even an opportunity for peace; Former MK Ksenia Svetlova, who warns that the Trump plan might endanger Israel’s warming ties with Arab countries; Dr. Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, who claims that while the EU remains committed to the two-state solution, it struggles to respond to the Trump plan; Merav Kahana-Dagan, who identifies an opportunity to bring the Palestinian issue back to the forefront; Amb. (ret.) Barukh Binah, who calls on Israeli leaders to seek diplomatic, not only security, advice; and Dr. Roee Kibrik, who thinks that Israelis should decide what type of country they want to live in.
- Topic:
- Politics, Territorial Disputes, Peace, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, North America, and United States of America
70. Assessing Israel Katz’s First Year as Foreign Minister
- Author:
- Nimrod Goren
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- In February 2019, Israel Katz was named Israel’s interim foreign minister, and three months later his appointment became permanent. This ended a period of almost four-years without a fulltime foreign minister, during which the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) significantly declined. A year into Katz’s term, an assessment can be made as to whether his appointment has strengthened the MFA and left a policy imprint. This, while taking into consideration the turmoil in Israeli politics since early 2019 and the understanding that deeper change requires a ministerial tenure longer than a year. This article sums up Katz’s first year on the job, based on media reports and information published by the MFA. It examines both intra-ministerial and policy aspects, and concludes that Katz is operating in Netanyahu’s heavy shadow, has failed to address the deep budgetary crisis faced by the MFA, and has focused on developing ties with Gulf States and combatting anti-Semitism.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Financial Crisis, and Benjamin Netanyahu
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Gulf Nations
71. The Battle for the Soul of Islam
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- It is not the caliphate that the world’s Muslim powerhouses are fighting about. Instead, they are engaged in a deepening religious soft power struggle for geopolitical influence and dominance. This battle for the soul of Islam pits rival Middle Eastern and Asian powers against one another: Turkey, seat of the Islamic world’s last true caliphate; Saudi Arabia, home to the faith’s holy cities; the United Arab Emirates, propagator of a militantly statist interpretation of Islam; Qatar with its less strict version of Wahhabism and penchant for political Islam; Indonesia, promoting a humanitarian, pluralistic notion of Islam that reaches out to other faiths as well as non-Muslim centre-right forces across the globe; Morocco which uses religion as a way to position itself as the face of moderate Islam; and Shia Iran with its derailed revolution. In the ultimate analysis, no clear winner may emerge. Yet, the course of the battle could determine the degree to which Islam will be defined by either one or more competing stripes of ultra-conservativism—statist forms of the faith that preach absolute obedience to political rulers and/or reduce religious establishments to pawns of the state.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Islam, Politics, and Ideology
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Indonesia, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates
72. Panel on Presidential Candidates on Latin America
- Author:
- Max Paul Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Columbia University ILAS panel on Democratic presidential candidates and Latin America. Among leading Democratic candidates some basics are widely shared. They agree that military force should be a last resort and that long-term occupations are damaging. They promise to reinvest in diplomacy and rehabilitate the US image abroad, as well as trying to achieve US policy goals, by rebuilding alliances and recommitting to multilateralism on climate change, on nuclear arms control. They want to use foreign aid and international institutions to improve human security, address the root causes of migration, and seek diplomatic solutions to conflicts. There is a rough division between the mainstream, Obama-style approach represented by Joe Biden and the mayor from South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttegieg, who both believe that US alliances and international institutions are force multipliers for the United States. Together, the so-called moderate candidates have about 40% of the Democratic voter support in surveys. The progressive wing is represented by Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who want to reduce US military activity abroad and also reform the global economic order in order to reduce inequality, conflict, and environmental damage. Together, Sanders and Warren have about 40% of the Democratic vote as well.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, North America, and United States of America
73. Taiwan's 2020 Elections
- Author:
- Natasha Kassam and Richard McGregor
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- China has lost the battle for public opinion in Taiwan. Saturday’s elections are likely to reflect strong anti-Beijing sentiment China is already looking past the elections to weaken the island’s democracy through overt and covert means Whatever the result, Beijing will increase pressure on Taipei to open talks on unification
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
74. The Shifting Boundaries of Antisemitism
- Author:
- Manfred Gerstenfeld
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- An important tool in understanding the dynamics of antisemitism is the identification of moments when its boundaries shift. This occurred with the Trump Peace Plan, the antisemitism crisis in the British Labour party, the UN’s first World Conference against Racism, the huge outburst of antisemitism in France in 2000, and the German welcome policy for refugees and asylum seekers.
- Topic:
- Politics, Ideology, Peace, Anti-Semitism, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
75. UN Treaty Body Promotes BDS at Urging of Norwegian NGO
- Author:
- Anne Herzberg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- UN treaty bodies are increasingly violating their mandates as part of discriminatory anti-Israel campaigns. In March 2020, the UN Committee on Economic Social and Cultural Rights (CESCR) embraced this disturbing trend by adopting a BDS agenda after being convinced to do so by the NGO Norwegian People’s Aid (NPA).
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Politics, United Nations, BDS, and NGOs
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Norway, and Palestine
76. Russia’s Shift from “Greater Europe” to “Greater Asia”
- Author:
- Emil Avdaliani
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- Though analysts tend to portray Russia’s foreign policy as truly global (that is, independent of Europe, the US, and China), the country is plainly tilting toward Asia. The Russian political elite does its best to hide this development, but the country is accumulating more interests and freedom to act in Asia than in Europe or anywhere else.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Geopolitics, and Global Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia
77. The Jordan Valley Is Not Up for Negotiation
- Author:
- Gershon Hacohen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- The Jordan Valley, in its full scope and broadest definition, is essential to Israel’s national security. Its retention by Israel requires not only military deployment but a comprehensive development plan—i.e., the construction of housing, roads, and infrastructure—that will establish this territory as Israel’s eastern wing.
- Topic:
- National Security, Politics, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan Valley
78. The Chinese Penetration of Israeli Media
- Author:
- Roie Yellinek
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- In 2009, China Radio International (CRI) began broadcasting in Hebrew. This venture has proven a success for the Chinese and a failure for the Israeli media, which uncritically swallow the messages sent out by CRI’s Hebrew team.
- Topic:
- Politics, Mass Media, Media, and YouTube
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, and Asia
79. The Novel Coronavirus Outbreak and Its Political/Economic Impact on China
- Author:
- Li Hao
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- As of March 9, 2020, instances of pneumonia attributable to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) have appeared in more than 100 countries; more than 80,000 persons have been infected in China, of whom over 3,000 have died. These infections have spread to Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran and elsewhere, devastating global exchange and economic activity. This paper offers a brief examination of the political and economic impact of this outbreak on China.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Global Focus
80. The Spread of the Novel Coronavirus Infection in Russia and the Government's Countermeasures
- Author:
- Hironori Fushita
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in Russia has been slower than in other European countries, but the number of infected people has surged since late March, especially in Moscow, and has exploded since April. As of April 14, the number of people infected with the novel coronavirus in Russia was 201,122 (up 2,774 from the previous day), with 1,694 recovering and 170 dead1. The following article will provide an overview of the spread of the novel coronavirus infection in Russia and the government's countermeasures, as well as the impact of this infection on the future of Russian politics
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Governance, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Eurasia
81. The Novel Coronavirus Outbreak and Its Political/Economic Impact on China (Continued)
- Author:
- Li Hao
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The author released a short paper in early March 2020 on China's reaction to the spread of novel coronavirus infections, but circumstances have since progressed to a new stage. A pandemic of historic proportions has broken out, and the spread of infections has been relentless even in the Western countries that initially looked upon China coolly. The numbers of infections and deaths in the US in particular have significantly surpassed those in China, making the US the most infected country in the world. At the same time, China continues to contain the spread of infections, and appears to be moving toward resuming economic activities. Nevertheless, there are numerous issues that still need to be addressed. This paper will briefly examine the novel coronavirus situation in China since March.
- Topic:
- Politics, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
82. Coronavirus Crisis Accelerating Reconsideration of Supply Chains
- Author:
- Yoshiaki Takayama
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, international interdependence is changing. The current international political situation, characterized by harsh power politics, and the current state of the international economy, in which states with different values are economically connected, are leading to reconsideration of international supply chains. Understanding international supply chains is extremely important in looking at the prospects for the global political economy. The purpose of this comment is to explore the trends and implications of reconsidering supply chains.
- Topic:
- Politics, Global Political Economy, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
83. Demanding the Future: Navigating the Pacific's Youth Bulge
- Author:
- Catherine Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- High population growth is driving a rapid increase in the proportion of young people in Pacific Island countries, with half the region's population aged under 23. This 'youth bulge' is particularly acute in Melanesian states and will have a major impact on every area of development in the region in the coming decades. Economic prosperity, political success and social stability in the Pacific Islands region in the future will depend on harnessing this demographic dividend and preventing youth marginalisation and disillusionment. Urgent and coordinated national and regional responses should include addressing pressing health problems, expanding Australia's seasonal worker scheme, increasing migration pathways, and targeted skills and employment programs.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, Migration, Politics, Employment, Youth, Population Growth, and Marginalization
- Political Geography:
- Melanesia and Pacific Ocean
84. Moldova in the EU's Eastern Partnership: Lessons of a Decade
- Author:
- Martin Sieg
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- In Moldova, the weakness of the Eastern Partnership has been over-reliance on incentives, rather than a lack thereof. Veto players who hid their true interests by claiming allegiance to the European cause hijacked the EU’s soft power. The EaP’s shortcoming was lack of means and readiness to make these key opponents of political reforms keep their commitments. Its core challenge is how to overcome the resistance of these veto players who have been obstructing transformational goals.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Oligarchy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Moldova, and Eastern Europe
85. The Future of the Kuomintang in Taiwan: Reform, Recalibrate, or Stay the Course?
- Author:
- Thomas J. Shattuck
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Once again, the future of Kuomintang (KMT), the political party headed by Chiang Kai-shek for decades and that favors a closer relationship with Mainland China, is in doubt due to the results of the recent presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan. President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was reelected in a landslide against her opponent Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu of the Kuomintang. Tsai received a record 8+ million votes, and the DPP retained its majority in the country’s national legislature by winning 61 seats—though it did lose seven compared to the 2016 election when the party won its first-ever majority. The blowout victory puts the KMT’s future into question—though more senior analysts note that this conversation occurs after every election, particularly the 2016 election, and nothing really changes. Maybe, just maybe, this time will be different.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, History, and Kuomintang
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan and Asia
86. Presidential Election in Belarus Tensions Are Likely to Prevail
- Author:
- András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The impending presidential election in Belarus on August 9, 2020, is highly likely to result in the smooth victory of incumbent Alexandr Lukashenko. Despite this fact, the unprecedented – and still growing – politicization of Belarusian society constitutes a challenge to the regime that will not fade even after a clear-cut election. The resulting tensions will require more diplomatic attention from Germany and the European Union.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, European Union, Society, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Germany, and Belarus
87. Britain’s Reckoning with the Future
- Author:
- Roderick Parkes
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Brexit talks have entered extra time. If the UK is to leave the EU in an orderly manner, it needs a deal in the next four weeks. The trouble is that, as the prospect of leaving becomes more concrete, the government has finally recognized that it needs to honor the promises it has made to voters. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is struggling to reconcile his vague pledges with real world constraints – both internationally and domestically.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Brexit, Negotiation, and Boris Johnson
- Political Geography:
- Britain and Europe
88. Avoiding “Cuba-sur-Calais” and Other Misadventures on Brexit Island
- Author:
- Roderick Parkes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- British political institutions have shown resilience during the Brexit crisis. London apparently believes it has the scope to put EU talks behind it and recalibrate its position in the world. The British government is carrying out an integrated review of defense, aid, and foreign policy and preparing its presidency of the COP26 climate talks and G7. By contrast, its neighbors are gripped by the notion of Britain’s further constitutional deterioration. Their perceptions could well become self-fulfilling.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Politics, Brexit, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Britain and Europe
89. The Problem with Germany’s Masterful Crisis Presidency
- Author:
- Roderick Parkes
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- A crisis can bring out the best in Germany’s European policy, resulting in its selfless embrace of deeper integration. But sometimes crises require Germany to lead from the front rather than melt selflessly into the background. On such occasions, Berlin has seemed a little too keen to stress that it is taking action under severe constraints. While Germany’s EU presidency showcased both tendencies, its shift toward crisis-driven realism risks overshadowing its strides for a better Europe.
- Topic:
- Politics, Domestic Politics, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
90. Time for a New US Policy – The Yemen Review, November 2020
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, Economy, Conflict, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America
91. Armenia's Foreign Policy: Where values meet constraints
- Author:
- Alexander Iskandaryan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- The official foreign policy doctrine of Armenia is called "complementarism"; the idea at the core of this approach is that various foreign policy dimensions can and should complement each other and need not be perceived as mutually exclusive.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Complementarism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Caucasus, and Armenia
92. The Future of the European Union: Scenarios for the Start of the New Legislature
- Author:
- Ferdinando Nelli Feroci
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- A few months after the European Parliament elections, and a few weeks before a new European Commission is fully operational, the European Union is facing old and new challenges, both domestic and international. Internally, the EU will soon be testing these new institutions. In the recently elected European Parliament, nationalist and Eurosceptic political forces are a minority, but pro-European mainstream parties, which have the numbers to control the proceedings of the Parliament, have not been able to consolidate a stable and comfortable majority. The new European Commission has encountered setbacks in the confirmation procedure of three of its members and will therefore fully assume its responsibilities with some delay on 1 December.
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, Politics, Elections, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, United States of America, and European Union
93. The Unmaking of Lebanon's Sectarian Order? The October Uprising and its Drivers
- Author:
- Tamirace Fakhoury
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Last month, an unprecedented protest movement took hold of Lebanon’s streets and public squares. Dubbed as the October uprising, the timing of the movement roughly coincided with important anniversaries, such as the fall of the Berlin Wall or other iconic historical events, including the October Revolution in Russia, leading many to draw comparisons. In the context of the 2011 Arab spring wave, many argued that Lebanon would stay isolated from the protest movements that gripped the region even though the country has witnessed previous protest cycles, such as the socalled 2005 Cedar Uprising. Still, eight years after the Arab protest wave, an unprecedented protest movement has materialised, spreading to various Lebanese cities from Tripoli to Sidon. In the wake of a proposed WhatsApp tax, people have been calling for the sacking of political leaders and the eradication of political sectarianism. Arguably, the protest movement may trace its roots back to a precursor wave of protests over a huge garbage crisis in 2015. Back then, the movement also decried the inept politics of sectarianism and corruption.
- Topic:
- Politics, Sectarianism, Domestic Politics, Protests, and Political Movements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
94. Civilian Crisis Management: Assessing the Readiness of EU Member States and Institutions
- Author:
- Nicoletta Pirozzi and Francesco Musi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The civilian dimension of conflict prevention, conflict resolution and post-conflict stabilisation has long been prominent in EU crisis management missions. From 2000 onwards, the EU has developed its monitoring, capacity-building, strategic advice and training tools, deploying a total of 22 civilian missions beyond its borders. Currently, there are 11 active civilian missions, stretching from the Balkans (EULEX Kosovo) to the Middle East (EUBAM Rafah, EUPOL COPPS, EUAM Iraq), from Eastern Europe and Caucasus (EUAM Ukraine, EUMM Georgia) to Africa (EUBAM Libya, EUCAP Sahel Mali, EUCAP Sahel Niger, EUCAP Somalia). Their main tasks include policy reforms on the rule of law, the fight against organised crime and security sector reform.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Budget, Crisis Management, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe and European Union
95. How Europe Should Approach China
- Author:
- Nicola Casarini
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Should the EU enforce a containment policy towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC – or simply China), joining efforts undertaken by US President Donald Trump, who has unleashed a trade and technological war against Beijing with the aim of permanently subordinating the Asian giant to the West? Or should the EU continue its engagement policy towards Beijing – and even seek to maximise Sino-European ties to put limits on those US unilateral policies that are detrimental to Europe’s interests and fundamental values? What would be the best policy mix of engagement and containment for EU–China relations? And to what extent should the EU align its China policy with that of the US?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, United States of America, and European Union
96. Development of Parliamentarism. Russian View
- Author:
- Rethinking Russia
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- Rethinking Russia issues its new report on development of parliamentarism in world politics. The modern democratic model derives from parliamentary representation, which has been developing for a number of centuries in search for better coherence between people and political decision-making. The evolution of parliamentarism has been differing from country to country, which however brought nations to similar functions for their representative bodies. What is a parliament of the XXI century? Is it a national or universal phenomenon? How does it relate to global governance? Who represents people (not peoples) outside their sovereign entity? Speaker of the Russian State Duma Viacheslav Volodin raises corresponding questions in order to articulate what Russian view on the development of parliamentarism might be. We consider such a discourse to be quite worth rethinking and propose our ideas on that. Who knows – maybe such a discussion would contribute to better understanding for challenges we are facing.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Democracy, and Parliamentarism
- Political Geography:
- Russia
97. Foreign and Security Policy in the New Malaysia
- Author:
- Elina Noor
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Malaysia’s foreign and security policy faces myriad challenges, but not much is likely to change under Mahathir Mohamad’s ‘New Malaysia’ framework. The return of Mahathir Mohamad to the prime ministership of the country he had previously led for 22 years has raised questions about the direction Malaysia’s foreign and security policy might take. While there may be some course-corrections in foreign and security policy under Mahathir’s Pakatan Harapan government, it will not stray far from the approach of previous administrations. Continuities will include its non-aligned status, its pragmatic dealings with both the United States and China, its focus on ASEAN centrality and Malaysia’s economic development through trade. Malaysia will revisit its earlier “Look East” policy; it has plans to upgrade its defence capabilities in the South China Sea; and it will take a more consultative approach to foreign policy-making.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Politics, and Economic Development
- Political Geography:
- Malaysia and Asia
98. Politics in Indonesia: Resilient Elections, Defective Democracy
- Author:
- Ben Bland
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- he pressures on Indonesian democracy are not likely to abate under a second-term Jokowi or a Prabowo presidency. Incumbent President Joko Widodo is the front-runner to defeat long-time rival Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia’s fourth direct presidential election on 17 April. Constrained by compromises and knocked off balance by the rise of identity politics, if Jokowi wins a second (and final) term, he is unlikely to make significant progress on much-needed economic, legal, and political reforms. Despite these concerns, there is hope for the future with a new generation of politicians from outside the elite now seeking to follow Jokowi’s path to national office. Indonesia’s future will depend on how far they use their electoral mandates to shake up a defective system.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Australia, and Asia-Pacific
99. 'New' Malaysia: Four Key Challenges in the Near Term
- Author:
- James Chin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of Malaysia’s momentous regime change, the new government faces a number of challenges to implementing wholesale political reform. Malaysia’s new government will need to deal with several key issues in the next 12 months to establish itself as a ‘change and reform’ administration, namely the Malay/Bumiputra Agenda, the 1963 Malaysia Agreement (MA63), political Islam, and a clear timetable for transition of power. Each of these issues is crucial to Malaysia’s political stability in the near term and to laying the foundation for long-term institutional reforms. If these reforms are not handled properly, the new Pakatan Harapan (Alliance of Hope) administration under Mahathir may be a one-term government and the country could easily revert to the old regime.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Regime Change, Reform, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Malaysia and Asia-Pacific
100. Rethinking Fiscal Policy: Progressive US Politics Meets Radical Economics
- Author:
- Stephen Grenville
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Recognition of the need for greater government intervention in the economy is increasingly shaping the US political debate, with this shift paralleled among prominent economists. The surprising success of Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign has emboldened Democratic presidential hopefuls to advocate bold platforms involving larger government. Coincidentally, some prominent economists are advocating greater government expenditure to address ‘secular stagnation’. This is unlikely to result in a radical shift away from the post-Reagan small-government policies, but the centre of gravity has shifted towards recognising a role for more government intervention.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Elections, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America