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2. Integration with the United States or Latin American Independence?
- Author:
- David Barkin and Alberto Betancourt
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- At the last Community of Latin American and Caribbean States meeting, Mexico’s president proposed contradicting relationships with North America.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Caribbean, North America, Mexico, and United States of America
3. For Hemispheric Unity, a Change in U.S. Foreign Policy is Needed
- Author:
- Brett J. Kyle and Andrew G. Reiter
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the face of a new war in Europe, shoring up support in Latin America will not be as easy as the Biden administration thinks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and War
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Latin America, and United States of America
4. Chavismo in the World
- Author:
- Angelo Rivero Santos and Javier Morales Hernández
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Bolivarian Revolution shook up the geopolitical map. Rebuilding Venezuela’s fractured relations in the hemisphere remains its chief foreign policy challenge.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
5. Armenia-Turkey Normalization Process: Opportunities and Barriers
- Author:
- Nino Chanadiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Armenia-Turkey relations have experienced numerous tensions over the decades associated with both the historic issues between the two nations and contemporary regional developments. Turkey’s refusal to recognize the mass killings of Armenians as a genocide1 in the Ottoman Empire during World War I has long been an important difficulty in bilateral relations. However, relations significantly worsened during the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the 1990s. As a response to Armenia’s capture of the territories surrounding NagornoKarabakh, Turkey closed the border with Armenia in 1993 in support of its ally Azerbaijan.2 The attempts to normalize relations did not have any fruitful outcome in the past decades which resulted in the two countries not having diplomatic or commercial relations for almost 30 years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Armenia
6. Georgia and the Baltics: Relations Amidst the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Nino Chanadiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Georgia and the Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – have a history of friendship that is strengthened through the common Soviet past and shared experiences of Russian influence and violence as well as by the common vision of the contemporary Russian threat towards Eastern Europe. All of this creates the shared desire in these countries to put themselves as far from the Russian sphere of influence as possible. The Baltic states along with Ukraine (and Belarus) are neighbors of Russia and the touch point between Europe and Russia1 while Georgia is located between Russia and Turkey and performs a significant role in linking them. The partnership between Georgia and the Baltic states in terms of decreasing Russian influence in Eastern Europe, as one of the joint aims, requires the cooperation to be on the highest of levels in order for it to be successful. The partnership not only stands on the common past of the four countries but also on their common security visions and shared values which can ultimately contribute to making the partnership stable and long lasting.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Regional Cooperation, and War
- Political Geography:
- Lithuania, Estonia, Georgia, Latvia, and Baltic States
7. NATO-Georgian Relations in the Coming Decades
- Author:
- Irakli Sirbiladze
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- At the 2022 Madrid Summit, NATO unveiled its new Strategic Concept.1 The update of the 2010 Strategic Concept2 was naturally necessitated by the momentous developments seen in the 2010s such as, among others, Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the more outward-looking and ambitiously rising China, Brexit, the election of Donald Trump and its attendant implications for transatlantic relations as well as the election of Joe Biden as the President of the United States and the reinvigoration of the transatlantic and the democracy agenda. The renewal of the Strategic Concept seemed apt amid Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 that put NATO-Russian relations at a historic low. NATO was forced to let go of its desire to forge ‘a true strategic partnership’ with Russia and instead referred to Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to the Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.”3 NATO’s new agenda for 2030 is also full of issues that go beyond the immediate geopolitical challenges. Issues such as climate change, technology, healthcare, space and cyberspace are equally significant for the Alliance’s ability to meet the challenges of the new decade.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus and Georgia
8. Hizballah, Lebanon, and Reconciliation with the Gulf: The Impasse
- Author:
- Carl Yonker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- On February 14, in Beirut’s southern, Hizballah-dominated suburb of Ghobeiry, Bahraini opposition groups marked the anniversary of the 2011 failed popular uprising in Bahrain. The gathering, organized by the Bahraini opposition group al-Wifaq, took place despite the Lebanese interior ministry’s orders to cancel it, which were issued in order to avoid offending Bahrain and its Gulf allies.[1] Lebanese ties with a quartet of Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates – have been at an impasse since October 2021. The diplomatic crisis, which has yet to be resolved, was sparked by Lebanese Information Minister George Kurdahi's critical comments regarding Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen. At its core, however, the crisis in Lebanese-Gulf relations is a dispute over Hizballah and its growing political influence in Lebanon – a source of tension for several years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Non State Actors, Hezbollah, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations
9. UK Must Engage with Argentina Over Future of FalklandIslands
- Author:
- Carole Concha Bell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- For Argentina, it’s position in the decades-old dispute over the British Overseas Territory remains clear: Las Malvinas son Argentinas.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Argentina, South America, and Falkland Islands
10. Hypotheses on the Implications of the Ukraine-Russia War
- Author:
- Barry R. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Structural realism is a useful tool to examine the implications of the war in Ukraine for global politics. Because structural realism emphasizes the anarchic nature of international relations, it suggests the war is unsurprising, a reminder that states still compete for security, sometimes violently, and the prudent will prepare for it with tools for self-preservation. The realist lens also sees lessons for nuclear deterrence: The prospect of mutual nuclear destruction constrains great power war and has limited U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine. Other states may take note and seek their own nuclear deterrents. The war demonstrates some limits of economic interdependence, which not only failed to pacify Russia, but also left Russia exposed to economic coercion, in a way both it and China may look to avoid in the future. Other important lessons for states from a realist perspective include the importance of military power—large, capable armies and the enduring advantages of defensive warfare, especially when infused with nationalism. The war leaves the “liberal international order,” a byproduct of the eroding post-Cold War U.S. power position, looking threadbare, but it is thus far reviving the U.S. Cold War coalition—a less liberal grouping—which could prove useful in dealing with China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, Sanctions, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine
11. A Roundtable on Lauren Turek, To Bring the Good News to All Nations: Evangelical Influence on Human Rights and U.S. Foreign Relations
- Author:
- Andrew Preston, Darren Dochuk, Christopher Cannon Jones, Kelly J. Shannon, Vanessa Walker, and Lauren F. Turek
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- Historians of the United States and the world are getting religion, and our understanding of American foreign relations is becoming more rounded and more comprehensive as a result. Religion provides much of the ideological fuel that drives America forward in the world, which is the usual approach historians have taken in examining the religious influence on diplomacy; it has also sometimes provided the actual nuts-and-bolts of diplomacy, intelligence, and military strategy.1 But historians have not always been able to blend these two approaches. Lauren Turek’s To Bring the Good News to All Nations is thus a landmark because it is both a study of cultural ideology and foreign policy. In tying the two together in clear and compelling ways, based on extensive digging in various archives, Turek sheds a huge amount of new light on America’s mission in the last two decades of the Cold War and beyond. Turek uses the concept of “evangelical internationalism” to explore the worldview of American Protestants who were both theologically and politically conservative, and how they came to wield enough power that they were able to help shape U.S. foreign policy from the 1970s into the twenty-first century. As the formerly dominant liberal Protestants faded in numbers and authority, and as the nation was gripped by the cultural revolutions of the 1960s, evangelicals became the vanguard of a new era in American Christianity. Evangelicals replaced liberal Protestants abroad, too, as the mainline churches mostly abandoned the mission field. The effects on U.S. foreign relations were lasting and profound.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Religion, International Affairs, History, Culture, Book Review, Christianity, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
12. A Roundtable on Christopher Dietrich, A Companion to U.S. Foreign Relations
- Author:
- Thomas W. Zeiler, Grant Madsen, Lauren F. Turek, and Christopher Dietrich
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- When David Anderson, acting as a conduit for editors at the Journal of American History, approached me at a SHAFR meeting in 2007 to write a state-of- the-field essay, I accepted, in part because we were sitting in a bar where I was happily consuming. The offer came with a responsibility to the field. I was serving as an editor of our journal, Diplomatic History, as well as the editor of the digitized version of our bibliography, American Foreign Relations Since 1600: A Guide to the Literature. Because these positions allowed me to survey our vibrant field, accepting the offer seemed natural. And I was honored to be asked to represent us. Did I mention we were drinking? I’m sure that Chris Dietrich accepted the invitation to oversee this next-gen pioneering Companion volume from Peter Coveney, a long-time editorial guru and booster of our field at Wiley-Blackwell, for similar reasons. This, even though there were times when, surrounded by books and articles and reviews that piled up to my shoulders in my office (yes, I read in paper, mostly), I whined, cursed, and, on occasion, wept about the amount of sources. What kept me going was not only how much I learned about the field, including an appreciation for great scholarship written through traditional and new approaches, but both the constancy and transformations over the years, much of it due to pressure from beyond SHAFR that prompted internal reflections. Vigorous debate, searing critiques, sensitive adaptation, and bold adoption of theory and methods had wrought a revolution in the field of U.S. diplomatic history, a moniker itself deemed outmoded.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
13. Is America Really Back?
- Author:
- Thomas Fingar
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Following the 2021 Taihe Civilizations Forum, the Taihe International Communications Center hosted an online discussion on October 8 that captures the candid and profound reflections of senior officials whose actions have shaped the course of ties between China and the United States. Dr. Thomas Fingar, Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, former Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, and former Assistant Secretary of State, and Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret.), Senior Fellow at Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, China Forum Expert, and former Director of Center for Security Cooperation of the Office for International Military Cooperation of Ministry of National Defense, were invited to join this dialogue. During their conversation, Dr. Fingar and Senior Colonel Zhou exchanged ideas on important topics such as the current state of China-U.S. relations, the future development of the two countries' bilateral ties, the rationale behind the US foreign policy and the American alliance system, as well as the "extreme competition" that China and the U.S. are trapped in.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Hegemony, Conflict, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
14. Hun Sen's Mistake? The Domestic Political Ramifications of His Chinese Shelter
- Author:
- Charles Dunst
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s close relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has led scholars and policymakers alike to suggest that Beijing’s backing will keep him in power. While Hun Sen himself seems to believe this to be true, his reliance on China is actually enflaming Cambodian discontent to such an extent that his planned patrimonial succession is at risk. Given the fragility of regimes mid-succession, Hun Sen’s Chinese shelter is augmenting the potential of his clan’s fall. Yet as Hun Sen faces increased domestic opposition, he will only further deepen ties with China in hopes of remaining in power, thereby creating a vicious cycle from which escaping will prove difficult.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Power Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia
15. Consistent Inconsistency: What One Thirty-year-old Cable Reveals About U.S.-DPRK Relations
- Author:
- Ben Forney
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- 30 years have passed since North Korea’s then “nascent” nuclear program was identified as a “gravely serious threat.” Since 1991, its once budding nuclear program has amassed into a large-scale program, posing a grave challenge for the nuclear proliferation regime and regional security in Northeast Asia. In the following Global NK Commentary, Ben Forney, PhD candidate at the Seoul National University Graduate School of International Studies, explains that international coordination efforts to deter North Korea from developing its nuclear weapons have been inconsistent and ineffective. Manifest in cable exchanges between Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo and President George H.W. Bush’ solo enactment of the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives, unaccompanied by any consultation of his international counterparts, the US stance towards North Korea since 1991 has been contradictory and erratic. With the Biden administration facing a long list of domestic and international concerns not pertaining to the North Korean nuclear regime and the Moon administration’s difficulties into its final year, Forney asserts that prospects for meaningful progress on the North Korean nuclear issue seem bleak.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North Korea, and United States of America
16. The EU’s North Korea Policy: From Engagement, to Critical Engagement, and to Criticism with Limited Engagement
- Author:
- Ramon Pacheco Pardo
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- While the EU had initially focused on engagement with North Korea in the 1990s, the North Korea nuclear crisis served as a turning point, pushing the EU to change its strategy to ‘critical engagement.’ In this commentary, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Professor of International Relations at King`s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance, explains the trajectory of EU’s policy towards North Korea. The EU’s first Asia strategy had called for the EU to become involved in addressing the North Korean nuclear issue, establishing diplomatic relations with the country. However, at the onset of the second nuclear crisis and further acceleration of North Korea’s missile and nuclear weapons program, the EU responded by ramping up pressure. To this date, the EU has been increasingly critical of the hermit kingdom, using a strategy that admonishes and pressures Pyongyang.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, European Union, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
17. North Korea’s Energy Crisis: What Are the Problems?
- Author:
- Kyung-sool Kim
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- North Korean businesses run by state-supplied energy have not been properly operated due to a sharp decrease in energy supply. Long-standing energy shortages have paralyzed the state energy supply and demand system, causing further disruptions in statewide functions. In this commentary, Kyung-sool Kim, Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Energy Economics Institute, states that this resulted from a complex accumulation of various problems: the characteristics of the regime, national capacity, state monopoly of production factors, the lack of a market, limitations of policy functions, the absence of capital and technology, and international isolation. The author argues that radical changes such as systemic reform and market opening are necessary to resolve these issues. The author adds that North Korea should be free from international isolation and propagate change in order to utilize external support.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Energy Crisis, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and North Korea
18. Kim Jong Un’s Two-Faced Strategy: South Korea First and U.S. Later Tactics Restoration of the Inter-Korean Hotline, the Road to an Inter-Korean Summit
- Author:
- Sung-wook Nam
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- North Korea reportedly test-fired its new long-range cruise missiles and rail-mobile ballistic missiles four times in September, which successfully hit their respective targets. As the North continues to enhance its nuclear missile capabilities, military threats and arms races among neighboring powers are intensifying. The North claims that prospects for bilateral relations depend on the attitude of South Korean authorities as it demands the South to drop its hostile policy towards the North and that the South promptly cease crisis awareness and delusion of getting harmed that it should deter the north's provocation. The author notes that the inter-Korean hotlines restored after 55 days of suspension can create a momentum to improve inter-Korean relations. However, he notes that the road ahead will be bumpy due to the differing attitudes of the two Koreas.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
19. The China Challenge Prompts Recovery of a Strained ROK-Japan Relations: Analyzing ROK-Japan Relations Through the 9th Joint Korea-Japan Public Opinion Survey
- Author:
- Yul Sohn
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Korea-Japan relations have been strained for the past 3 years as the feelings of fatigue between the two citizens has been steadily increasing due to the Korean Supreme Court’s ruling on the forced wartime labor in October 2018. Bilateral cooperation to reorganize the world order after COVID-19 also remains bleak. The East Asia Institue (EAI, President Yul Sohn) and Genron NPO (President Yasushi Kudo) conducted the “9th Joint Korea-Japan Public Opinion Poll.” Based on the results of the survey, this issue briefing examines the differences in public opinion between the two countries on security and economic cooperation. This briefing also analyzes the Korean public’s call to improve ROK-Japan relations and increase cooperation. President Sohn argues that ROK-Japan relations should be re-examined under the intensified U.S.-China strategic competition and the possible post-pandemic global risks. He also states that Japan should abandon its one-track approach and understand the Korean’s preference for “future-oriented” cooperation. Additionally, the next Korean administration should respond to public opinion and strive towards the reconstruction of ROK-Japan relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Regional Cooperation, Public Opinion, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
20. Detachment by Default: the International Framework of the Karabakh Conflict
- Author:
- Thomas de Waal
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- At the end of 1991, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict changed from being an internal conflict inside the Soviet Union to being an international dispute between the newly independent republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
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