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Begin New Search Topic Elections Content Type Commentary and Analysis Publication Year within 3 Years

1. The Perfect Storm: Trump and USA 2024

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Donald Trump casts a long shadow over the upcoming presidential – and congressional – elections in the United States. It is a menacing shadow, not only for what the former president could do if he returned to office but also because the political and institutional balances of the United States are threatened by the repercussions of his many legal troubles, the latest of which could even see him excluded from the race for the White House.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2. The INE Debate and the Formation of the Neoliberal Democracy in Mexico

Author:
Luiz Alberto Gómez de Souza
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Although Mexico’s electoral institute was originally born out of struggles for democracy, it has since become a guardian of the neoliberal Mexican state.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

3. Communal Resistance and Land Theft Mark Lead up to Guatemala Elections

Author:
Gladys Tzul Tzul and Simón Antonio Ramón
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Mass protests against taxation measures and the forced displacement of Indigenous communities set the backdrop for Guatemala’s upcoming presidential elections.
Topic:
Elections, Displacement, Protests, Land Rights, and Indigenous
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Guatemala

4. Ecuador Headed for Early Elections After President Dissolves Legislature

Author:
Diana Guarnizo Peralta
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
To head off an impeachment vote, Guillermo Lasso chose the nuclear option. Amid polarization and a protracted political stalemate, what comes next remains uncertain.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Crisis, Impeachment, and Guillermo Lasso
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Ecuador

5. Far Right Holds Chile Hostage

Author:
Carole Concha Bell
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The ultra-conservative Republican Party won a majority on Chile’s new Constitutional Council, delivering a major blow to President Gabriel Boric’s transformative platform.
Topic:
Elections, Constitution, Far Right, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Chile

6. Peru: Infinite Protest and Indolent Elites

Author:
Nicolás Lynch
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The anti-government protests that erupted in December have a clear political agenda: new elections and the convening of a constituent assembly.
Topic:
Elections, Protests, and Elites
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Peru

7. Political Repression in Cuba Ahead of the 2023 Parliamentary Elections

Author:
Sandra Pellegrini and Ana Marco
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 26 March 2023, voters will elect 470 deputies to Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s Power, who, in addition to fulfilling legislative functions during their five-year term, will be nominating Cuba’s next head of state. The government has characterized Cuba’s political system as a grassroots democracy, where candidacies to the parliament largely emerge from municipal authorities and are approved by the National Candidate Commission, a body composed of social organizations, such as labor unions and student associations.1 In practice, however, Cuba’s electoral process has been criticized for blocking the opposition’s access to power. Notably, the Council for Democratic Transition in Cuba, a platform created by opposition members to promote pluralism, freedom, and human rights, has called voters to boycott the upcoming elections after pro-government supporters reportedly prevented several opposition candidates from running in the November 2022 municipal elections.2
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Repression, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean

8. Turkey’s 2023 General Elections and the Kurdish Question

Author:
Ameneh Mehvar and Berk Özlü
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The most consequential elections in Turkey’s recent history are set to be held on 14 May, when Turkish citizens will elect a new president alongside a new parliament. An ideologically disparate coalition of six opposition parties, ranging from secularists, to Islamic conservatives, and Turkish nationalists, have joined forces under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu to unseat Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan has been in power for 20 years, initially as prime minister and then as president since 2014.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Minorities, Elections, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

9. The Normalization of Political Violence and the 2023 Legislative Elections in Greece

Author:
Niki Papadogiannaki and Vicky Yiagopoulou
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Elections in Greece come less than three months after the deadly head-on train collision at Tempe in the north of the country that killed 57 passengers. The incident on 28 February triggered demonstrations against the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, chastising him for initially blaming the collision on “tragic human error.”1 The unrest that followed caused the government to delay announcing the election date, which had been anticipated in April. Due to a new voting law, the elections will be held under a proportional representation system, wherein the leading party needs to secure at least 46% to have a chance to win absolute majority in parliament. However, this percentage has not been reached in the last three decades,2 making a clear victory on 21 May unlikely.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Protests
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

10. Deadly Rio de Janeiro: Armed Violence and the Civilian Burden

Author:
Bhavani Castro and Julia Links Franciotti
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The public security situation in Brazil is complicated, and particularly in Rio de Janeiro state, which has high levels of violence and criminality. The presence of multiple different criminal groups fighting for territory, coupled with abusive government measures to tackle criminal activity, has created a deadly, high-risk environment for civilians in the state. In 2021, Rio de Janeiro registered 27 violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, a rate lower than states like Bahia and Ceará but significantly higher than the national average of 22. Rio de Janeiro also ranked first among Brazilian states in the number of deaths recorded during police interventions, with at least 1,356 people reportedly killed.1 In May 2021, for example, a police operation against drug traffickers in the Jacarezinho community in Rio de Janeiro city resulted in 29 reported fatalities. While authorities claimed that all those killed in the operation were linked to criminal groups, witnesses reported that police officers entered civilian houses and carried out extrajudicial executions.2 The Jacarezinho operation was the deadliest single event recorded by ACLED in Brazil in 2021. A year later, in May 2022, military and federal police forces clashed with the Red Command (CV) in the Vila Cruzeiro community in the Penha Complex, resulting in at least 26 reported fatalities, including civilians. These are not isolated incidents, but rather indicative of the increasing lethality of violence in Rio de Janeiro in 2021 and 2022, and the rising threat to civilians.
Topic:
Crime, Elections, Violence, Civilians, Militias, Gangs, and Public Security
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Rio de Janeiro

11. Political Violence and the 2023 Nigerian Election

Author:
Andrea Carboni and Ladd Serwat
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 25 February 2023, Nigerians will elect a new president, vice president, and members of the National Assembly. Term limit legislation bars President Muhammadu Buhari from running for a third term, and the end of his presidency marks the longest democratic stretch since independence. Eighteen candidates are vying for the presidency, and at least 4,223 candidates are running for the 469 seats in the National Assembly.1 The presidential frontrunners include Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate who has surprisingly led in the pre-election polls. Two weeks after the national election, on 11 March 2023, 28 out of 36 states will also elect a new governor, with 17 incumbent governors reaching their term limits and hence barred from re-running.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

12. Anti-Government Demonstrations and Separatism in Thailand: Political Disorder Trends Ahead of the 2023 General Election

Author:
Vasan Chen, Pam B., Fiona Wong, and Elliott Bynum
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
With the general election in Thailand anticipated in May 2023, tensions that have sparked unrest in the country in previous years remain unresolved, despite declines in particular types of political violence and demonstration events in the past year. Political disorder in Thailand ranges from violence involving separatists in the Deep South to demonstrations over the continued presence of the monarchy and the military in politics. Following an increase in 2021, political violence involving separatists in the Deep South had been on the wane in 2022 until attacks in August caused a significant spike. Meanwhile, amid ongoing judicial harassment under the lèse-majesté law that criminalizes criticizing the monarchy, anti-government demonstrations calling for an end to the monarchy and the military in politics declined in 2022 compared to the previous two years. Yet the tensions underlying the street protests – as evidenced by the uptick in demonstrations in November during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and the hunger strike initiated earlier this year by two activists charged under the lèse-majesté law – have not been put to rest. The stage is set for the possible reemergence of demonstrations and disorder in Thailand around the upcoming election this year. Drawing on new data,1 this report examines political violence and demonstration trends under the administration of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the leader of the 2014 military coup, from the previous general election in March 2019 to the end of 2022.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Separatism, Demonstrations, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

13. Shifting Paradigms: The Rise of the Move Forward Party and the Changing Face of Thai Democracy

Author:
Napon Jatusripitak
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In light of the 2023 general election in Thailand that delivered a surprise victory for the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP), Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting research fellow at the ISEAS ? Yusof Ishak Institute, analyzes the shifting political dynamics in the country and explains the key to MFP’s success. With the election outcome reflecting public’s heightened awareness and desire for political participation and citizen engagement, Thai politics seems prepared for transition from the conservative status quo. Nevertheless, Jatusripitak emphasizes that a sustainable change in domestic governance depends on the MFP’s capacity to carry out the drive for democracy and the conservative establishment’s willingness to accept and adjust.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Social Media, Political Parties, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

14. Upcoming Elections and Political Turmoil in Pakistan

Author:
Ahmed Bilal Mehboob
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
As the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) delayed a key provincial election due to financial and security-related issues, a potential constitutional crisis looms over the country. In light of the deepening political turmoil in Pakistan, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob explores how this crisis has developed and offers a grim outlook of holding a free and fair election this year. Mehboob argues that the former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s audacious move to seek fresh elections to both the National and Provincial Assemblies have exacerbated party polarization, and Supreme Court decisions for the court cases are unlikely to be fully enforced due to such divide. Mehboob warns that prolonged political crisis may induce military intervention to restore order so that the elections could be pushed ahead.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Constitution, Domestic Politics, Supreme Court, and Imran Khan
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

15. Devastating Earthquakes in Turkey Could Fundamentally Alter the Political Landscape

Author:
James Ryan
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
Twin earthquakes of 7.4 and 7.8 magnitude devastated southeastern Turkey and northern Syria on February 6. Over 22,000 people are known to have died, and tens of thousands more remain wounded and displaced. Lax construction standards in a rapidly urbanizing region contributed to the high death toll, raising questions about Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party’s aggressive approach to construction and development. Opposition figures have made pointed accusations that state aid has been doled out on a partisan basis, raising the stakes of scheduled general elections on May 14.
Topic:
Development, Natural Disasters, Elections, Domestic Politics, Earthquake, and Construction
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

16. Iraqi Kurds Face Legitimacy Issues Amid Election Deadlock and Internal Division

Author:
Bekir Aydoğan
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Parliamentary elections were originally set to be held on October 1, 2022 in the KRI, but they were then postponed to November 18, 2023 because the two main Kurdish parties—the Barzani-led Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Talabani-led Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)—could not work out an agreement on the elections system. Now, months after the KRI’s Parliament, government, and presidency expired last November, the KRI’s President announced that the elections would take place on February 25, 2024. Though both the KDP and PUK have so far agreed on holding the elections on this date, the parties have yet to resolve a months-long dispute over the parliament’s controversial minority quota. Amidst the uncertainty, there’s no guarantee that the February 2024 target date will come to fruition.
Topic:
Elections, Legitimacy, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

17. The Most Important Election in Brazil’s History

Author:
Bryan Pitts
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Brazil faces a stark choice in its presidential runoff Sunday. Can Lula and the Left overcome Bolsonaro’s misinformation and attempts to buy the vote?
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Leftist Politics, Misinformation, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

18. Kenya’s Political Violence Landscape in the Lead-Up to the 2022 Elections

Author:
Clionadh Raleigh and Caleb Wafula
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Kenya went to the polls on 9 August 2022 after a five-year cycle, marking the third general election since the promulgation of a new constitution in 2010. This represents the end of the second and final term of the Jubilee Alliance party government under President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, a current presidential contender. The presidential campaign between Raila Odinga — another ‘legacy’ candidate who has previously run four unsuccessful presidential campaigns — and Ruto has experienced some local troubles, but the focus during this campaign is whether the Kenyan electoral landscape has really shifted to emphasize class, demographic, and elite divisions.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

19. Violence Targeting Civilians Increased During Elections in Papua New Guinea

Author:
Regina Chung, Laura Sorica, Elliott Bynum, and Josh Satre
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Violence targeting civilians in Papua New Guinea rose in the lead-up to and during the campaign, voting, and vote counting periods for the country’s recent national elections. When voting began on 4 July, mob violence at polling stations became deadly amid allegations of voter fraud, missing ballots, and disputed counting. With a decentralized political system that contributes to clientelism, long-standing communal and clan conflicts also reignited during the elections.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, and Civilians
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Papua New Guinea

20. Lula’s Victory, the New Left and the Future of Latin America

Author:
Rafael Ramírez
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The election of Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva as the new president of Brazil, consolidates the advancement of a New Left in Latin America: a progressive movement, with strong popular and democratic content, promoting an agenda where the fight against poverty, inequality, climate change and respect for human rights is key.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Leftist Politics, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Venezuela