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Begin New Search Content Type Commentary and Analysis Publication Year within 25 Years

2151. Iraq Between Maliki and the Islamic State

Author:
POMEPS
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Iraq’s long-simmering political conflicts and violence erupted in June with the stunning capture of Mosul and advances toward Baghdad by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The collapse of the Iraqi army and the rapid seizure of territory by ISIS took most observers by surprise, but the crisis had been developing for years. This POMEPS Briefing collects more than a dozen recent articles by academics writing for The Monkey Cage and other leading online publications that explore both the immediate crisis and its underlying causes.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Iraq

2152. Turkey’s Turmoil

Author:
POMEPS
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan occupied a dominant political position not too long ago. In June 2011, his Justice and Development Party (AKP) won nearly 60 percent of the seats in parliament while expanding its lead over its closest competitor. Turkey seemed well primed to take advantage of the Arab uprisings, with its independent foreign policy and criticism of Israel playing well with Arab audiences. Erdogan even seemed keen to find a resolution to the long-running struggle with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and reconcile with the country’s Kurdish citizens. Those days seem distant indeed. For at least the last six months, Erdogan has struggled to respond to sustained popular protests, a growing corruption scandal, a stalled peace process with the PKK, a deeply unpopular and ineffective Syria policy, and dissent from within his own party. How did Erdogan’s fortunes reverse so quickly? Are his problems primarily the natural decay of a leader too long in power or do they speak to deeper problems with his party’s ideology or the foundations of Turkish democracy? The 14 deeply researched and analytically powerful Foreign Policy Middle East Channel essays collected in this POMEPS Briefing go deeply into the origins, dynamics, and likely implications of Turkey’s new political scene.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey

2153. New Vision of Africa's Development: The role of NEPAD and South-South Cooperation

Author:
Ibrahim Assane Mayaki
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
It is a great pleasure for me to be here tonight as the head of the New Partnership for Africa's Development and it is an honor to have this conversation, but because I would like to have it on a conversation's mode, with one of you, in order to identify what are the main characteristics of Africa's evolutions to the last -let us say- fifty years, and how these evolutions have framed a radically differing context from what Africa was 25 or 20 years ago; there is an invisible transformation that is taking place, and there are visible aspects of that transformation that is taking place, and there are visible aspects of that transformation that I would like to highlight.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa

2154. Current Economic and Financial Development in Africa

Author:
Omar Kabbaj
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
I will try to describe what Africa is in my view today and how it came to where it stands at present, before addressing its perspectives and closing by a few words on the relationship between Africa and Latin America, and between by own country, Morocco, and the rest of the African continent, as well as Latin America.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, Latin America, and Morocco

2155. Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Brazil, Chile and Mexico?

Author:
Michiel De Pooter, Patrice Robitaille, Ian Walker, and Michael Zdinak
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper, we consider whether long-term inflation expectations have become better anchored in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We do so using survey-based measures as well as financial market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations, where we construct the market-based measures from daily prices on nominal and inflation-linked bonds. This paper is the first to examine the evidence from Brazil and Mexico, making use of the fact that markets for longterm government debt have become better developed over the past decade. We find that inflation expectations have become much better anchored over the past decade in all three countries, as a testament to the improved credibility of the central banks in these countries when it comes to keeping inflation low. That said, one-year inflation compensation in the far future displays some sensitivity to at least one macroeconomic data release per country. However, the impact of these releases is small and it does not appear that investors systematically alter their expectations for inflation as a result of surprises in monetary policy, consumer prices, or real activity variables. Finally, long-run inflation expectations in Brazil appear to have been less well anchored than in Chile and Mexico.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Inflation, and Bonds
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, North America, Mexico, and Chile

2156. Bank Ownership, Lending, and Local Economic Performance During the 2008-2010 Financial Crisis

Author:
Nicholas Coleman and Leo Feler
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
While the finance literature often equates government banks with political capture and capital misallocation, these banks can help mitigate financial shocks. This paper examines the role of Brazil's government banks in preventing a recession during the 2008-2010 financial crisis. Government banks in Brazil provided more credit, which offset declines in lending by private banks. Areas in Brazil with a high share of government banks experienced increases in lending, production, and employment during the crisis compared to areas with a low share of these banks. We find no evidence that lending was politically targeted or that it caused productivity to decline in the short-run.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Governance, Local, Lending, and Banking
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

2157. Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications

Author:
Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, and Daniel F. Waggoner
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Are optimism shocks an important source of business cycle fluctuations? Are deficit-financed tax cuts better than deficit-financed spending to increase output? These questions have been previously studied using SVARs identified with sign and zero restrictions and the answers have been positive and definite in both cases. While the identification of SVARs with sign and zero restrictions is theoretically attractive because it allows the researcher to remain agnostic with respect to the responses of the key variables of interest, we show that current implementation of these techniques does not respect the agnosticism of the theory. These algorithms impose additional sign restrictions on variables that are seemingly unrestricted that bias the results and produce misleading confidence intervals. We provide an alternative and efficient algorithm that does not introduce any additional sign restriction, hence preserving the agnosticism of the theory. Without the additional restrictions, it is hard to support the claim that either optimism shocks are an important source of business cycle fluctuations or deficit-financed tax cuts work best at improving output. Our algorithm is not only correct but also faster than current ones.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Tax Systems, Economic Theory, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2158. Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison

Author:
John Rogers, Chiara Scotti, and Jonathan H. Wright
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines the effects of unconventional monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan on bond yields, stock prices and exchange rates. We use common methodologies for the four central banks, with daily and intradaily asset price data. We emphasize the use of intradaily data to identify the causal effect of monetary policy surprises. We find that these policies are effective in easing financial conditions when policy rates are stuck at the zero lower bound, apparently largely by reducing term premia.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, and Banking
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, Asia, and England

2159. Menu Costs, Trade Flows, and Exchange Rate Volatility

Author:
Logan T. Lewis
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
U.S. imports and exports respond little to exchange rate changes in the short run. Pricing behavior has long been thought central to explaining this response: if local prices do not respond to exchange rates, neither will trade flows. Sticky prices and strategic complementarities in price setting generate sluggish responses, and they are necessary to match newly available international micro price data. Using trade flow data, I test models capable of replicating these trade price data. Even with significant pricing frictions, the models still imply a trade response to exchange rates stronger than found in the data. Moreover, using significant cross-sector heterogeneity, comparative statics implied by the model find little to no support in the data. These results suggest that while complementarity in price setting and sticky prices can explain pricing patterns, some other short-run friction is needed to match actual trade flows. Furthermore, the muted response found for sectors with high long-run substitutability implies that simply assuming low elasticities may be inappropriate. Finally, there is evidence of an asymmetric response to exchange rate changes.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2160. Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios

Author:
Stephanie E. Curcuru, Charles P. Thomas, Francis E. Warnock, and Jon Wongswan
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Portfolio rebalancing is a key driver of the Uncovered Equity Parity (UEP) condition. According to UEP, when foreign equity holdings outperform domestic holdings, domestic investors are exposed to higher exchange rate exposure and hence repatriate some of the foreign equity to decrease their exchange rate risk. By doing so, foreign currency is sold, leading to foreign currency depreciation. We examine the relationship between U.S. investors' portfolio reallocations and returns and find some evidence consistent with UEP: Portfolio shifts are related to past returns in the underlying equity markets. But we argue that a motive other than reducing currency risk exposure is likely behind this rebalancing. In particular, U.S. investors may be exploiting mean reversion in underlying equity markets, rebalancing away from equity markets that recently performed well and moving into equity markets market just prior to relatively strong performance. Such behavior suggests tactical reallocations to increase returns rather than reduce risk.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Risk, International Portfolios, and Equity
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2161. Sovereign Debt Crises

Author:
Ricardo Correa and Horacio Sapriza
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Sovereign debt crises have been recurrent events over the past two centuries. In recent years, the timing of sovereign crises has coincided or has directly followed banking crises. The link between sovereigns and banks tightened as the contingent liability that the banking sector represents for the sovereign grew, as financial "safety nets" became more common. This chapter analyzes the transmission channels between sovereigns and banks, with a focus on the effect of sovereign distress on bank solvency and financing. It then highlights the notable cost to the real economy of the close connection between sovereigns and banks. Breaking the "feedback loop" between these two sectors should be an important policy priority.
Topic:
Debt, Sovereignty, Banking, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2162. Liquidity Risk and U.S. Bank Lending at Home and Abroad

Author:
Ricardo Correa, Linda Goldberg, and Tara Rice
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
While the balance sheet structure of U.S. banks influences how they respond to liquidity risks, the mechanisms for the effects on and consequences for lending vary widely across banks. We demonstrate fundamental differences across banks without foreign affiliates versus those with foreign affiliates. Among the nonglobal banks (those without a foreign affiliate), cross-sectional differences in response to liquidity risk depend on the banks' shares of core deposit funding. By contrast, differences across global banks (those with foreign affiliates) are associated with ex ante liquidity management strategies as reflected in internal borrowing across the global organization. This intra-firm borrowing by banks serves as a shock absorber and affects lending patterns to domestic and foreign customers. The use of official-sector emergency liquidity facilities by global and nonglobal banks in response to market liquidity risks tends to reduce the importance of ex ante differences in balance sheets as drivers of cross-sectional differences in lending.
Topic:
Risk, Lending, Banking, and Liquidity
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2163. The Decline of Drudgery and the Paradox of Hard Work

Author:
Brendan Epstein and Miles S. Kimball
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We develop a theory that focuses on the general equilibrium and long-run macroeconomic consequences of trends in job utility. Given secular increases in job utility, work hours per capita can remain approximately constant over time even if the income effect of higher wages on labor supply exceeds the substitution effect. In addition, secular improvements in job utility can be substantial relative to welfare gains from ordinary technological progress. These two implications are connected by an equation flowing from optimal hours choices: improvements in job utility that have a significant effect on labor supply tend to have large welfare effects.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Economic Theory, Welfare, Social Services, and Wage Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2164. Understanding the Great Recession

Author:
Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Mathias Trabandt
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We argue that the vast bulk of movements in aggregate real economic activity during the Great Recession were due to financial frictions. We reach this conclusion by looking through the lens of an estimated New Keynesian model in which firms face moderate degrees of price rigidities, no nominal rigidities in the wages and a binding zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our model does a good job of accounting for the joint behavior of labor and goods markets, as well as inflation, during the Great Recession. According to the model the observed fall in total factor productivity and the rise in the cost of working capital played critical roles in accounting for the small size of the drop in inflation that occurred during the Great Recession.
Topic:
Global Recession, Financial Crisis, Economic Theory, Interest Rates, Models, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2165. The Energy Boom and Manufacturing in the United States

Author:
William R. Melick
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines the response of U.S. manufacturers to changes in competitiveness brought about by movements in the price of natural gas. I estimate the response of various measures of manufacturing activity using panel regression methods across roughly 80 industries that allow each industry's response to vary with its energy intensity. These estimates suggest that the fall in the price of natural gas since 2006 is associated with a 2 to 3 percent increase in activity for the entire manufacturing sector, with much larger effects of 30 percent or more for the most energy intensive industries.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2166. U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies

Author:
David Bowman, Juan M. Londono, and Horacio Sapriza
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We investigate the effects of U.S. unconventional monetary policies on sovereign yields, foreign exchange rates, and stock prices in emerging market economies (EMEs), and we analyze how these effects depend on country-specifc characteristics. We find that, although EME asset prices, mainly those of sovereign bonds, responded strongly to unconventional monetary policy announcements, these responses were not outsized with respect to a model that takes into account each country's time-varying vulnerability to U.S. interest rates affected by monetary policy shocks.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, Markets, Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, Interest Rates, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2167. Taxes and International Risk Sharing

Author:
Brendan Epstein, Rahul Mukherjee, and Shanthi Ramnath
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We examine the extent to which differences in international tax rates may account for the small correlations of per capita consumption fluctuations across countries. Theory implies a close relationship between relative consumption growth, and consumption and capital income tax rate differentials. We find strong empirical evidence for this relationship. Idiosyncratic output fluctuations account for the majority of cross country consumption growth variability, but trends in tax differentials are informative about the dynamic evolution of international risk sharing. In particular, adjusting for capital taxes reveals an intuitive positive relationship between financial connectedness and risk sharing that is absent in baseline measures.
Topic:
Tax Systems, Risk, Capital, and Consumerism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2168. The Domestic and International Effects of Interstate U.S. Banking

Author:
Matteo Cacciatore, Fabio Ghironi, and Viktors Stebunovs
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper studies the domestic and international effects of national bank market integration in a two-country, dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model with endogenous producer entry. Integration of banking across localities reduces the degree of local monopoly power of financial intermediaries. The economy that implements this form of deregulation experiences increased producer entry, real exchange rate appreciation, and a current account deficit. The foreign economy experiences a long-run increase in GDP and consumption. Less monopoly power in financial intermediation results in less volatile business creation, reduced markup countercyclicality, and weaker substitution effects in labor supply in response to productivity shocks. Bank market integration thus contributes to moderation of firm-level and aggregate output volatility. In turn, trade and financial ties allow also the foreign economy to enjoy lower GDP volatility in most scenarios we consider. These results are consistent with features of U.S. and international fluctuations after the United States began its transition to interstate banking in the late 1970s.
Topic:
Markets, Monopoly, Fiscal Policy, Banking, and Interstate Cooperation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2169. Returns to Active Management: The Case of Hedge Funds

Author:
Maziar Kazemi and Ergys Islamaj
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Do more active hedge fund managers generate higher returns than their less active peers? We attempt to answer this question. Using Kalman Filter techniques, we estimate the risk exposure dynamics of a large sample of live and dead equity long-short hedge funds. These estimates are then used to develop a measure of activeness for each hedge fund. Our results show that there exists a nonlinear relationship between activeness and performance. Using raw returns as a measure of performance, it is found that more active funds outperform the less active ones. However, when risk adjusted returns are used to measure performance, we find the opposite results; that is, activeness is inversely related to returns. Still, we find that a few very active managers outperform the moderately active funds and generate higher returns. We conclude that the most active managers use their skills to manage the riskiness of their portfolios and are, therefore, able to provide higher risk adjusted returns. Finally, we find that compared to the least active managers, the most active managers are less homogeneous and, therefore, due diligence is far more important when selecting an active manager.
Topic:
Markets, Risk, Business Management, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2170. Estimating U.S. Cross-Border Securities Positions: New Data and New Methods

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The role of capital flows in the buildup to the global financial crisis and the potential vulnerabilities posed by capital flows to emerging market economies highlight the importance of reliable and timely measures of cross-border investment activity to better monitor developments as they unfold. We present new monthly estimates of U.S. cross-border securities investment, combining information from detailed annual Treasury International Capital (TIC) surveys with new information from the TIC form SLT. We also show how changes in the new monthly data can be decomposed into flows, estimated valuation changes, and a residual "gap". These decompositions can provide a richer and timelier view of developments in both foreign portfolio investment in the U.S. and U.S. portfolio investment abroad than available from transactions data or survey data alone. Data on cross-border holdings through December 2013, by country, are available for download; we also provide advice on how to construct estimates going forward. These data can be combined with the existing Bertaut-Tryon monthly estimates of securities holdings (now updated through 2011) to generate consistent monthly time series of positions.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Markets, Global Financial Crisis, Capital Flows, and Investment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2171. The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions

Author:
Lutz Kilian and Robert J. Vigfusson
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role of net oil price increases in amplifying the transmission of oil price shocks. We quantify the conditional recessionary effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid-1970s. Compared to the linear model, the cumulative effect of oil price shocks over the course of the next two years is much larger in the net oil price increase model. For example, oil price shocks explain a 3 percent cumulative reduction in U.S. real GDP in the late 1970s and early 1980s and a 5 percent cumulative reduction during the financial crisis. An obvious concern is that some of these estimates are an artifact of net oil price increases being correlated with other variables that explain recessions. We show that the explanatory power of oil price shocks largely persists even after augmenting the nonlinear model with a measure of credit supply conditions, of the monetary policy stance and of consumer confidence. There is evidence, however, that the conditional fit of the net oil price increase model is worse on average than the fit of the corresponding linear model, suggesting much smaller cumulative effects of oil price shocks for these episodes of at most 1 percent.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Global Recession, Natural Resources, Monetary Policy, and GDP
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2172. Financial Business Cycles

Author:
Matteo Iacoviello
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using Bayesian methods, I estimate a DSGE model where a recession is initiated by losses suffered by banks and exacerbated by their inability to extend credit to the real sector. The event triggering the recession has the workings of a redistribution shock: a small sector of the economy--borrowers who use their home as collateral--defaults on their loans. When banks hold little equity in excess of regulatory requirements, the losses require them to react immediately, either by recapitalizing or by deleveraging. By deleveraging, banks transform the initial shock into a credit crunch, and, to the extent that some firms depend on bank credit, amplify and propagate the shock to the real economy. I find that redistribution and other financial shocks that affect leveraged sectors accounts for two-thirds of output collapse during the Great Recession.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, GDP, Economic Theory, Fiscal Policy, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2173. Bank Interventions and Options-based Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Global and Euro-area Crisis

Author:
Juan M. Londono and Mary Tian
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using a novel dataset on central bank interventions to financial institutions, we examine the impact of capital injection announcements on systemic risk for the banking sector in the U.S. and the euro area between 2008 and 2013. We propose a new measure of options-based systemic risk called downside correlation risk premium (DCRP), which quantifies the compensation investors demand for being exposed to the risk of large correlated drops in bank stock prices. DCRP is calculated using options that provide a hedge against large drops in the price of a bank index and its individual components. We find that, irrespective of their characteristics, intervention announcements significantly reduce DCRP in the U.S. while for the euro area, interventions were largely unsuccessful at reducing DCRP.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Institutions, Risk, and Banking
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

2174. The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy

Author:
Lorenzo Caliendo, Fernando Parro, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, and Pierre-Daniel Sarte
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We study the impact of regional and sectoral productivity changes on the U.S. economy. To that end, we consider an environment that captures the effects of interregional and intersectoral trade in propagating disaggregated productivity changes at the level of a sector in a given U.S. state to the rest of the economy. The quantitative model we develop features pairwise interregional trade across all 50 U.S. states, 26 traded and non-traded industries, labor as a mobile factor, and structures and land as an immobile factor. We allow for sectoral linkages in the form of an intermediate input structure that matches the U.S. input-output matrix. Using data on trade flows by industry between states, as well as other regional and industry data, we obtain the aggregate, regional and sectoral elasticities of measured TFP, GDP, and employment to regional and sectoral productivity changes. We find that such elasticities can vary significantly depending on the sectors and regions affected and are importantly determined by the spatial structure of the US economy. We highlight the role of these elasticities by tracing out the effects of productivity gains in California in the Computers and Electronics industry between 2002 and 2007 on all other U.S. sectors and regions.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, GDP, Regionalism, and Productivity
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2175. Financial Frictions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies

Author:
Ozge Akinci
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Estimated dynamic models of business cycles in emerging markets deliver counterfactual predictions for the country risk premium. In particular, the country interest rate predicted by these models is acyclical or procyclical, whereas it is countercyclical in the data. This paper proposes and estimates a small open economy model of the emerging-market business cycle in which a time-varying country risk premium emerges endogenously. In the proposed model, a firm's borrowing rate adjusts countercyclically as the default threshold of the firm depends on the state of the macroeconomy. I econometrically estimate the proposed model and find that it can account for the volatility and the countercyclicality of country risk premium as well as for other key emerging market business cycle moments. Time varying uncertainty in firm specific productivity contributes to delivering a countercyclical default rate and explains 70 percent of the variances in the trade balance and in the country risk premium. Finally, I find the predicted contribution of nonstationary productivity shocks in explaining output variations falls between the extremely high and extremely low values reported in the literature.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Economic Theory, Risk, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2176. Banks, Capital Flows and Financial Crises

Author:
Ozge Akinci and Albert Queralto
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper proposes a macroeconomic model with financial intermediaries (banks), in which banks face occasionally binding leverage constraints and may endogenously affect the strength of their balance sheets by issuing new equity. The model can account for occasional financial crises as a result of the nonlinearity induced by the constraint. Banks' precautionary equity issuance makes financial crises infrequent events occurring along with "regular" business cycle fluctuations. We show that an episode of capital infl ows and rapid credit expansion, triggered by low country interest rates, leads banks to endogenously decrease the rate of equity issuance, contributing to an increase in the likelihood of a crisis. Macroprudential policies directed at strengthening banks' balance sheets, such as capital requirements, are shown to lower the probability of financial crises and to enhance welfare.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Capital Flows, Banks, Economic Theory, and Interest Rates
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2177. Generating Options-Implied Probability Densities to Understand Oil Market Events

Author:
Deepa Dhume Datta, Juan M. Londono, and Landon J. Ross
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We investigate the informational content of options-implied probability density functions (PDFs) for the future price of oil. Using a semiparametric variant of the methodology in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978), we investigate the fit and smoothness of distributions derived from alternative PDF estimation methods, and develop a set of robust summary statistics. Using PDFs estimated around episodes of high geopolitical tensions, oil supply disruptions, and macroeconomic data releases, we explore the extent to which oil price movements are expected or unexpected, and whether agents believe these movements to be persistent or temporary.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Oil, Economic Theory, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2178. The Replacement of Safe Assets: Evidence from the U.S. Bond Portfolio

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut, Alexandra Tabova, and Vivian Wong
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The expansion in financial sector "safe" assets, largely in the form of structured products from the U.S. and the Caribbean, in the lead-up to the global financial crisis has by now been fairly well documented. Using a unique dataset derived from security-level data on U.S. portfolio holdings of foreign securities, we show that since the crisis, it is mostly the foreign financial sector that appears to have met U.S. demand for safe and liquid investment assets by expanding its supply of debt securities. We also find a strong negative correlation between the foreign share of the U.S. financial bond portfolio and measures of U.S. safe assets availability: providing evidence on the importance of foreign-issued financial sector debt as a substitute when U.S. issued "safe" assets are scarce. Furthermore, although U.S. investors continue to tap foreign financial markets for "safe" assets, we show that the type of foreign financial debt that fills this portfolio niche post-crisis is quite different than pre-crisis. Post-crisis, we find that U.S. investors have replaced offshore-issued structured securities with high-grade U.S. dollar-denominated financial debt issued from a small group of OECD countries (most notably Australia and Canada). Lastly, these developments have led to a decline in home bias in the U.S. financial bond portfolio that we are able to document for the first time.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, Financial Crisis, Investment, Fiscal Policy, and Bonds
Political Geography:
Caribbean, North America, and United States of America

2179. Gains from Offshoring? Evidence from U.S. Microdata

Author:
Ryan Monarch, Jooyoun Park, and Jagadeesh Sivadasan
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We construct a new linked data set with over one thousand offshoring events by matching Trade Adjustment Assistance program petition data to confidential data on U.S. firm operations. We exploit these data to assess how offshoring affects domestic firm-level aggregate employment, output, wages and productivity. Consistent with heterogenous firm models where offshoring involves a fixed cost, we find that the average offshoring firm is larger and more productive than the average non-offshorer. After initiating offshoring, firms experience large declines in employment (46.2 per cent), output (38.5 per cent) and capital (28.8 per cent) relative to their industry peers. We find no significant change in average wages or in total factor productivity measures for offshoring firms. These results are consistent across two separate difference-in-differences (DID) approaches, an instrumental variables approach, and a number of robustness checks. Thus, we find offshoring to be a strong substitute for domestic activity in this large sample of offshoring events.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Manufacturing, Trade, Outsourcing, and Capital
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2180. How Public Information Affects Asymmetrically Informed Lenders: Evidence from a Credit Registry Reform

Author:
M. Ali Choudhary and Anil K. Jain
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We exploit exogenous variation in the amount of public information available to banks about a firm to empirically evaluate the importance of adverse selection in the credit market. A 2006 reform introduced by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reduced the amount of public information available to Pakistani banks about a firm's creditworthiness. Prior to 2006, the SBP published credit information not only about the firm in question but also (aggregate) credit information about the firm's group (where the group was defined as the set of all firms that shared one or more director with the firm in question). After the reform, the SBP stopped providing the aggregate group-level information. We propose a model with differentially informed banks and adverse selection, which generates predictions on how this reform is expected to affect a bank's willingness to lend. The model predicts that adverse selection leads less informed banks to reduce lending compared to more informed banks. We construct a measure for the amount of information each lender has about a firm's group using the set of firm-bank lending pairs prior to the reform. We empirically show those banks with private information about a firm lent relatively more to that firm than other, less-informed banks following the reform. Remarkably, this reduction in lending by less informed banks is true even for banks that had a pre-existing relationship with the firm, suggesting that the strength of prior relationships does not eliminate the problem of imperfect information.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Public Policy, Credit, and Banking
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Middle East

2181. Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balances

Author:
Jane Haltmaier
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Great Financial Crisis coincided with a sizable reduction in global external imbalances, defined as the absolute value of the sum of individual country current account surpluses and deficits relative to global GDP. Although current account balances should not respond to a downturn that is uniform across countries, one that hits countries with current account deficits harder than those with surpluses might result in a decline in the global balance. This paper quantifies the cyclical portion of the current account balance for 35 countries using estimates of the severity of the cycle in each country relative to that of its trading partners in conjunction with three estimates of the sensitivity of the current account balance to changes in the output gap. Two of the estimates are derived from equations linking trade to income and the third is derived from the relationship between changes in current account balances and changes in output gap differentials. The main result is that the bulk of the reduction in the global current account imbalance since 2006 appears to have been structural. Cyclical forces are estimated to account for between 10 and 30 percent of the decline. In the aggregate, the cyclical effect is estimated to be currently holding down the global current account balance by about 1/2 percentage point. However, the size of the cyclical effect is more substantial for some countries. Both surplus and deficit countries have contributed to the decline in the absolute value of the global current account imbalance, but the contribution of the deficit countries is about twice as large as that of the surplus countries. Changes in oil prices have had largely offsetting effects on the global current account balance, but changes in real exchange rates in recent years have contributed to the reduction.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Financial Crisis, GDP, Exchange Rate Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2182. Conflict trade: regulating illicit flows to and from war

Author:
Mark B. Taylor
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This expert analysis note describes an emerging approach to regulating illicit flows of goods to and from conflict zones. The approach, based on norms of national and international law defining business due diligence, is well suited for dilemmas posed by war economies. Due diligence offers the possibility of excluding goods from global flows if they are produced through human rights abuse or used for conflict financing, while at the same time it can limit harm to livelihoods and avoid the wholesale criminalisation of informal economies. To that end, further inter-governmental policy coordination is needed to define conflict financing under international law and to elaborate an effective regulatory strategy.
Topic:
International Law, Law, Regulation, Trade, Armed Conflict, Supply Chains, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2183. Distinguishing between exploitative and non-exploitative sex involving UN peacekeepers: the wrongs of “zero tolerance”

Author:
Olivera Simić
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The links between the presence of peacekeepers and the sexual exploitation and abuse of women have been documented across peace support operations (PSOs). This expert analysis critically analyses the United Nations secretary general’s Bulletin on Special Measures for Protection from Sexual Exploitation and Sexual Abuse, which was promulgated in 2003 to address the problem of sexual exploitation and abuse in the context of PSOs. The expert analysis is concerned with the broad definition of sexual exploitation provided by the bulletin, which includes most sexual relationships and prostitution. It concludes that the bulletin’s definition of sexual exploitation is over inclusive in its “strong discouragement” of sexual relationships and prohibition of prostitution regardless of consent, age and fair remuneration. It argues that, as currently formulated, the bulletin undermines women’s agency and sexual autonomy, and blurs important distinctions between consensual sex and sexual offences. The bulletin thus relies on and perpetuates negative gender stereotypes and imperial hierarchies and, consequently, encourages stigma and discrimination. It casts women as victims and peacekeepers as sexual predators who cannot treat women as equals.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Sexual Exploitation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2184. Challenges facing the Colombian peace negotiations

Author:
Jorge Orlando Melo
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Peace negotiations between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) started in 2012 and have advanced slowly but surely. The rules of procedure – no ceasefire, extreme confidentiality on the discussions, a limited agenda, direct negotiations without civil society participation or international mediation – have helped to isolated the talks from the pressures of everyday reality. In May 2013 the parties announced an agreement on point 1 of the agenda, which deals with the land problem. Negotiations on point 2 – the political participation of the guerrillas – started in July 2013. Four further points have to be discussed: the drugs business, the end of armed conflict, justice and compensation for victims, and the procedures for implementing the agreement. Both sides have used peace negotiations to build up their political image. The FARC, besides supporting or promoting social protests of coca-growing peasants, miners, and other groups with social grievances, has made some proposals not in the agenda, such as the convening of a constitutional assembly or a general reform of the state, but has shown flexibility and for the moment has withdrawn most of these proposals. The negotiations will last longer than previously announced, but both sides have good reasons to maintain them beyond the March 2014 elections, provided that progress is made and there are no extreme provocations by the FARC.
Topic:
Negotiation, FARC, Dialogue, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

2185. A fragile cold peace: the impact of the Syrian conflict on Israeli-Syrian relations

Author:
Cathrine Thorleifsson
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The unfolding Syrian crisis is threatening to end 40 years of cold peace between Syria and Israel. Exchanges of fire between Israeli and Syrian troops, coupled with fear of a new Islamist front, have led Israel to strengthen its military presence in the Golan Heights. Syria’s alliance with Iran and Hizbullah and Israel’s unilateral attacks on military facilities inside Syria have heightened tensions between the two countries. Through their actions and mutual politics of fear Israel and Syria are moving out of a cold peace situation. However, the pressured Syrian regime and its allies are too occupied by the civil war to open a new front. For Israel, a prolonged conflict in Syria could be advantageous because it will weaken its enemies and provide time to forge new strategic alliances with Sunni Arab states.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Syrian War, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Golan Heights

2186. Egypt’s Political Reset

Author:
POMEPS
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
How should analysts understand the combination of the June 30 massive popular mobilization and the July 3 military coup against then-President Mohamed Morsi? Should these events be understood as a continuation of the January 25 revolution, a second revolution, a straightforward military coup, or a restoration of the Mubarak-era order? Does the blame for the failure of Egypt’s first popularly elected presidency lie with Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, with a recalcitrant opposition, with a resistant state, or with the deep problems which any transitional leadership would have confronted? Can a pathway toward a democratic order still be found?
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Egypt

2187. Yemen’s National Dialogue

Author:
POMEPS
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Yemen began its long-awaited National Dialogue Conference this week in Sanaa. The NDC hoped to find some zone of consensus for moving forward in its transition from the long rule of Ali Abdullah Saleh. It has been beset by many problems of representation, withdrawals and boycotts, deeply entrenched divisions, and the perception of irrelevance to the real problems of Yemenis. For a while it looked like it might never actually convene.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Yemen

2188. Security Matters

Author:
Centre for European Security Studies
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
In 2012 CESS conducted a range of activities in Turkey in the framework of the “Good Governance of the Security Sector in Turkey” programme: In March we organised a conference and a follow-up training course in Ankara on Financial Accountability and Budgetary Transparency of the Security Sector. During these events we discussed the main procedures in reviewing defence budgets and particular attention was dedicated to the role of the Court of Accounts. It became clear during the proceedings of both events that despite the fact that changes have been made for the better in Turkey with regard to financial oversight of the security sector, most of these changes unfortunately are only made on paper and are still not put into practice. The auditing process clearly lacks key mechanisms that would make the military more accountable. Therefore the Court of Accounts still has no real leverage over the military in terms of auditing defence spending.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2189. Serbia-Kosovo Agree to Normalize Relations, Now to “Normalize” Society

Author:
Charles Cadwell
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The prime ministers of Kosovo and of Serbia initialed an agreement Friday to normalize relations between their two countries. This accomplishment—at the last hour and under the careful and forceful leadership of the EU’s Catherine Ashton—does not, by itself, reconcile the long-standing enmity between neighbors in Kosovo, a territory now recognized by 90 countries as a nation. The devil is in the implementation details yet to be worked out.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Negotiation, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

2190. What Will "Our Turn to Eat" Mean the Day After the Kenyan Elections?

Author:
Charles Cadwell
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
All eyes are on Kenya today as some 14 million citizens are expected to vote for an array of candidates for president and other offices. The world hopes to avoid a repeat of the post-election violence in late 2007 and early 2008 that killed some 1,500 people and created as many as 600,000 refugees, a trauma that lingers even five years later. Indeed, one candidate and his running mate are under indictment at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for their role in the 2008 violence. Nonetheless, at a rally last weekend, six presidential candidates held hands and committed to accept the results of the vote. While there are reports of scattered pre-election violence, most observers do not expect a repeat of the last cycle’s mayhem. In this circumstance, it’s easy to lose sight of the dramatic changes in Kenya’s political and governmental structure that take place tomorrow. These elections launch an entirely new constitutional arrangement for Kenya.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Constitution, and Transition
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

2191. Lighting the way to municipal prosperity

Author:
Mary Larzelere
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
When was the last time you thought about street lights? They’re certainly something I’ve always taken for granted, until a recent trip to Kosovo as part of an Urban Institute program supported by USAID, the Democratic Effective Municipalities Initiative (DEMI). DEMI is a three-year, $20 million project dedicated to helping Kosovo municipalities achieve good governance at the local level. DEMI undertakes steps to make local service delivery more transparent and inclusive, and make local officials more accountable for results, a true challenge in any democracy, let alone a new one such as Kosovo’s.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Electricity, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

2192. Evolution and Change in Iranian Foreign Policy: From Ideology-Orientedness to Pragmatism

Author:
Cenap Çakmak
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
There is visible Iranian interest in the so-called Arab Spring process. This growing interest could be attributed the advantages associated with the emerging Shia Crescent in the Middle East which could be favorable to the Iranian interests. However, it is essential to review the overall aspects of Iranian foreign policy to further elaborate on this matter. In other words, the Iranian foreign policy should be prone to have regional ambitions in order to speak of interest in regional developments such as Arab Spring or Shia Crescent. In order to properly analyze whether or not Shia Crescent becomes a stronger reality in the Arab Spring process, it is also relevant to discuss the fundamental tenets and current tendencies of the Iranian foreign policy. For the sake of the discussion, a brief analysis of the Iranian foreign policy after the Islamic revolution in 1979 will be sufficient to determine as to whether Iran may actually be interested in expanding its sphere of influence in the region and taking advantage of the Arab Spring, though there are some similarities with the foreign policy approach before the regime change as well.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arab Spring, Ideology, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

2193. The Militarization of the Caspian Sea is Inevitable: Cooperation is Needed

Author:
Ilgar Gurbanov
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
There is a strong linkage between energy and security. It can be a factor both for cooperation and conflicts, namely it can push forward for cooperation between two states, while at the same time can create tension between them. This tendency can be applied to Caspian Sea, which contains one of the largest oil and gas areas of the world. The energy diplomacy has been key factor for the political and economic development of Caspian states. The exploration and transportation of energy resources to world markets has been a central element of their foreign policies, and has enabled them to strengthen their sovereignty.
Topic:
Security, Development, Energy Policy, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Caspian Sea

2194. Assessing Turkey’s Performance As a Norm Entrepreneur in Syrian Crisis

Author:
Cenap Çakmak
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Norms matter in world politics; and it is actually the norms, rather than complicated provisions of treaties or other formal arrangements, that the state express strong willingness to comply with. Norms are also significant as they reshape the conduct of interstate affairs and the overall outlook of the international political stage. From a constructivist perspective, norms are expected to take reign in the aftermath of a major and pervasive transformation in global stage. Such norms are further consolidated and legally backed by the repetitive compliance of states which turn them into binding customs that are applicable to all similar cases regardless of whether parties to these cases express their consent to abide by them as international legal rules.
Topic:
International Law, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Norms
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

2195. Russia-EU Energy Relations: from Cooperation toward Contradictions

Author:
Ilgar Gurbanov
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
World War II, it was necessary to take new economic steps in order to overcome political problems among European countries. Establishment of the European Steel and Coal Community, the European Atomic Energy Community and the European Economic Community formed the/an/new European energy policy. After the first oil crisis in 1973, EU understood the importance of creation of common energy policy “…and European Council adopted “New Energy Policy Strategy” in 1974.” In 1991, EU proposed “European Energy Charter” and the Charter was signed by member states in Lisbon in 1994. The Charter considered further regulation of energy policy across the continent.
Topic:
International Relations, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and History
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and European Union

2196. Turkey’s Approach towards Nuclear Armament*

Author:
Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
When we look at Turkey’s nuclear strategy particularly in the field of military, we see that the issue of nuclear armament is not frequently discussed (maybe for right reasons). However, outside the country, in other NATO members, this issue is often discussed. What is at stake here is not the debate over how many nuclear weapons each state possesses but what kind of roles nuclear weapons play in the security strategies of countries.The debate on whether nuclear weapons are still needed in today’s world is being made openly before the public opinion. There has not occurred such a debate environment in Turkey yet. I am of the view that beginning such a debate will be of benefit if we indeed have the ideal of ‘open society’.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Public Opinion, Military Affairs, and Weapons
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2197. The Gezi Park Protests: The Lessons Turkey Should Take

Author:
Atilla Sandikli and Erdem Kaya
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
The Gezi Park events, started upon tearing down a few trees and demolishing some walls of the Park within the framework of the “Taksim Pavement Project”, proved to be a turning point in Turkish politics. The events are still one of the major policy debates continuing to affect the national politics in Turkey.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, Governance, Social Movement, Protests, Domestic Policy, Freedom, and Gezi Park
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2198. Understanding Islamist Activism and Islamic Movements

Author:
Cenap Çakmak
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Islamist activism takes growing attention in political discussions and literature of scholarly accounts as well. Islamic movements and activism is often associated with terrorism in these accounts. However, this is a simplistic approach and ignores the dynamics and rationale behind this phenomenon. In other words, Islamism needs to be explored and understood for a proper analysis and discussion.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Political Activism, Islamism, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Turkey

2199. Iran and Arab Spring

Author:
Cenap Çakmak
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
The political actors involved in regional politics in the Middle East were apparently caught unprepared by the events culminating in an Arab Spring. The tectonic shifts and the magnitude of the people’s rise in a very short period of time were the primary reason for the unpreparedness.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Arab Spring, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

2200. Iran’s Nuclear Program and Turkey

Author:
Mustafa Kibaroglu
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Iran has become one of the most important issues of international agenda due to its nuclear program and continues to preserve its importance because of this. The question is how Iran has come to occupy an important place on international agenda? Is Iran pursuing its nuclear program in breach of international treaties or what causes problems are its intentions concerning the use of its nuclear capabilities?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Nuclear Power, Weapons, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, and Middle East