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Begin New Search Content Type Commentary and Analysis Publication Year within 25 Years

1551. Cyprus’s elusive reunification: so near to a solution, yet so far

Author:
William Chislett
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
UN-brokered talks to finally reunify Cyprus after 43 years offered hope, but obstacles remained and any deal would have to be approved in referendums on both sides. Greek Cypriots rejected the settlement put forward by the United Nations in 2004. The reunification of Cyprus is one of the world’s longest running and intractable international problems. The latest talks in Geneva in January 2017 between Nicos Anastasiades, the Greek-Cypriot President, and Mustafa Akıncı, his Turkish-Cypriot counterpart, after 20 months of negotiations, made significant progress. The issues of territorial adjustments and security and guarantees are the most sensitive and core issues yet to be resolved and ones that will determine whether a solution can be reached and approved in referendums on both sides.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus

1552. Three’s company? France, Germany, the UK and European defence post-Brexit

Author:
Daniel Keohane
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
It is vital that France, Germany and the UK cooperate constructively on military matters after the British leave the EU. Supporters of EU defence policy have seized on the Brexit decision of the British people as an opportunity to strengthen that policy. In the past the UK had blocked some proposals, which France, Germany and others now wish to implement. But a more energised EU defence on paper will not quickly transform into a stronger policy in practice. More important for the security of Europeans is that France, Germany and the UK ensure that they cooperate constructively on military matters after the British leave the EU.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
European Union

1553. Making the 'Special Relationship' Great Again?

Author:
Tim Oliver and Michael Williams
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Even before Donald Trump won the US presidential election he left an indelible mark on US politics and on views of the US in Britain and around the world. his victory means those views will now have to be turned into policy towards a president many in Britain feel uneasy about. Current attitudes to Trump can be as contradictory and fast changing as the president-elect’s own political positions. They can be a mix of selective praise and horror. he has in the past been criticised by British political leaders from the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson to the Mayor of london Sadiq khan. In early 2016 a petition of over half a million signatures led Parliament to debate (and reject) banning Trump from entering the Uk. Yet he has also drawn the support of politicians such as UKIP leader Nigel Farage, and polling showed support amongst the British public for his 2015 proposal to ban Muslims from entering the US. After the presidential election British ministers were quick to extend an olive branch. Johnson himself refused to attend a hastily convened EU meeting to discuss Trump’s election. Instead he called on the rest of the EU to end its collective ‘whinge-o-rama’.
Topic:
International Relations, Political stability, Post Truth Politics, and Populism
Political Geography:
Britain and America

1554. The results of Vladimir Putin’s visit to Japan

Author:
Dmitry Streltsov
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
International analytical center “Rethinking Russia” presents a commentary of Dmitry Streltsov, doctor of history, head of the Department of Oriental studies of the MGIMO University, on the results of Vladimir Putin’s visit to Japan.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia and Japan

1555. Strengthening Stability in Northwest Africa: Ideas for U.S. Policy toward Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia

Author:
Robert Satloff and Sarah Feuer
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The countries of northwest Africa -- Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia -- have proven either more resilient or more adaptive than other Middle East states to the political upheavals that have engulfed the region over the last half-dozen years. To varying degrees, however, stability remains a major challenge for all these countries as they face transnational terrorism, spillover from the conflict in Libya, abrupt shifts in domestic political dynamics, potential flare-ups of regional conflicts, and unforeseen events that could ignite deep-seated resentment at a local mix of stagnant economies, endemic corruption, and profound disparities between wealth and poverty. In this Transition 2017 essay, Robert Satloff and Sarah Feuer warn against overlooking a corner of the Middle East that doesn't attract the same attention as areas facing more-acute conflict. Outlining America's key strategic interests in this region, they discuss specific ways the Trump administration can advance these interests in terms of both bilateral and regional relations.
Topic:
International Relations, International Affairs, and International Development
Political Geography:
Middle East and Northwest Africa

1556. Toward a New Paradigm for Addressing the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:
David Makovsky and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Like many of his predecessors, President Trump has come to office pledging to solve the decades-long Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In this paper, two veteran U.S. peace negotiators point out the repeated failure of past efforts to reach "all-or-nothing" solutions to this conflict, urge the president not to seek a comprehensive settlement, and instead recommend an approach based on reaching an understanding with Israel on steps that could, preserve the potential for a two-state outcome in the future; blunt the delegitimization movement against Israel; and give the administration leverage to use with the Palestinians, other Arabs, and Europeans. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has faded in significance in the Middle East against the backdrop of the conflict in Syria, the rise of ISIS, and the regionwide clash of Sunni and Shiite powers. Both the likelihood for a return to the negotiating table and the prospects for a two-state solution are growing dim.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Israel and Palestine

1557. General Principles to Guide U.S. Middle East Policy

Author:
James F. Jeffrey and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Given the unprecedented turmoil and uncertainty afflicting the Middle East, the new administration will need to devote particular care and urgency to understanding the essence of America's interests in the region, and applying clear principles in pursuing them. This is the advice offered by two U.S. diplomats with a distinguished record of defending those interests under various administrations. As Trump and his team take office, they face a regional state system that is under assault by proxy wars that reflect geopolitical rivalries and conflicts over basic identity. Rarely has it been more important for a new administration to articulate clear goals and principles, and Ambassadors James Jeffrey and Dennis Ross outline both in this transition paper. With 30 percent of the world's hydrocarbons still flowing from the Middle East, safeguarding that supply remains a critical U.S. national security interest, along with preventing nuclear proliferation, countering terrorism, and preserving stability. In their view, the best way to pursue these interests is to emphasize a coherent set of guiding principles, namely:
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
America and Middle East

1558. Moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem:

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
If President Trump decides to honor his commitment to relocate the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, he should move quickly to consult with Israel, assess and prepare responses for potential security challenges, and engage key regional and international partners in the context of a broader adjustment of U.S. policy, according to a new presidential transition paper by Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff. "Past presidents -- both Democratic and Republican -- who made and then broke this promise were evidently convinced that the relocation of America's main diplomatic mission to Jerusalem would ignite such outrage and trigger such violence that the costs outweighed the benefits," he writes. "This analysis, however, takes ominous warnings by certain Middle East leaders at face value, builds on what is essentially a condescending view of Arabs and Muslims that assumes they will react mindlessly to incendiary calls to violence, and fails to acknowledge the potential impact of subtle, creative, and at times forceful American diplomacy."
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Israel

1559. Assault on the Liberal Trading Order

Author:
Vinod K Aggarwal
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Berkeley APEC Study Center
Abstract:
Given the hotly contested U.S. presidential election and the surprising victory of Donald Trump, followed by the flurry of executive actions, it is easy to lose sight of the broader challenges to the U.S.-promoted post-Second World War economic order. My analysis proceeds in four parts. First, I consider how we have moved away from multilateral to bilateral trade negotiations. Second, I consider how the consensus for a liberal trade order has frayed, focusing on systemic changes, U.S. domestic political economic conflicts, and a rethinking of the ideological consensus around the benefits of free trade. Third, I highlight factors that drove the demise of TPP. I conclude by looking at the future of trade accords in the Asia-Pacific.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1560. Overselling the Trans pacific Partnership: The Trade Security Nexus

Author:
Vinod K Aggarwal
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Berkeley APEC Study Center
Abstract:
For decades, first under the auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and then its successor organization the World Trade Organization (WTO), countries successfully negotiated the reduction of both tariffs and nontariff barriers every few years. But in December 2015, after 14 years of fruitless negotiations, WTO members terminated the Doha Round.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1561. Elections et notabilité en Iran: Une analyse du scrutin législatif de 2016 dans quatre circonscriptions (Elections and notability in Iran: Analyzing the 2016 legislative vote in four wards)

Author:
Fariba Abdelkhah
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Elections have been trivialized in Iran. They allow for the expression of diversity, in particular ethnical and denominational, of historical regional identities, and prove the growing professionalization of political life. Paradoxically, such professionalization withdraws the Republic away into the levels of family, parenthood, autochthony, and even neighborhoods or devotional sociability, which are all institutions that instill a feeling of proximity, solidarity, communion; close to the notion of asabiyat. As the saying goes, the Islamic Republic has become a « parentocracy » (tâyefehsâlâri). The country’s industrial development isn’t at odds with such ponderousness since it lies on a web of very small family businesses. The analysis of the 2016 legislative elections in four wards reveals how important the issue of property is in political life, indivisible as it is of the various particularistic consciences. The connections with notables are still there, revealing lines of continuity with the old regime as well as longstanding agrarian conflicts that have not been erased by the Revolution and that are being kept alive through contemporary elections.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Sociology, Governance, Elections, Borders, Networks, and Identities
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

1562. Building Links between Latin America and Asia in an Uncertain World

Author:
Vivian Balakrishnan
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
A talk on the links between governments of Asia and Latin America.
Topic:
Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Partnerships, Alliance, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia and Latin America

1563. Russian Revolution and Its Centenary: No Longer Politics, Not Yet History

Author:
Alexander Konkov
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
Russia experienced its revolution late in the game. By that time, most Western countries had already gone through coups and industrialization and promptly rejected feudal rules and practices. Most importantly, they had had enough time to resign themselves to their revolutions and their consequences and national scars left by any upheaval had healed. Moreover, countries and peoples are – if not proud – not ashamed of the past events. In terms of historical memory, revolutions are often reconciled with national archetypes.
Topic:
Politics, History, Revolution, and Russian Revolution
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

1564. A Delicate Balancing Act: Russia, Turkey, and the Kurds

Author:
Pietro A. Shakarian
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
Russia and Turkey have been improving their relationship since June 2016, the Kurdish question presents a potential challenge to their attempts to strengthen their ties. Reconciling Kurdish aspirations with Turkish fears will be a top priority for Moscow in its effort to broker a post-war peace in Syria.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Syrian War, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, and Middle East

1565. How buzz on Russia dossier undermines bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington

Author:
Andrei Korobkov
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
The buzz surrounding the so-called “Russian trace” in the U.S. elections, started by former presidential candidate from the Democratic party Hillary Clinton during her 2016 failed presidential campaign, continues to evolve. New accusations spring up, leading to new investigations. Started in mid-2016 by Clinton’s claims about the Russian hackers, who allegedly disclosed information contained on the Democratic Party National Committee servers, it increasingly targets the members of President Donald Trump’s inner circle, including some of his family members. Appointed to deal initially with a narrow set of issues, the Independent Prosecutor Robert Mueller, the former FBI Director, has to deal with the quickly expanding set of claims and accusations.
Topic:
Intelligence, Bilateral Relations, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

1566. Russia Studies in the U.S.: From academic ghetto to political mainstream

Author:
Pavel Koshkin
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
After the victory of republican Donald Trump at the 2016 presidential election followed by the series of probes into the Kremlin’s alleged meddling in the American domestic affairs, Russia turned into political mainstream in the U.S. However, the revived interest toward this country failed to translate into increasing funding of Russia Studies programs. And here is why.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Academia, and Area Studies
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

1567. Three milestones of Russia’s foreign policy in 2017

Author:
Pavel Koshkin
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
2017 brought both successes and disappointments to Russia on the international arena. Moscow succeeded in establishing dialogue with its rivals in the Middle East — Saudi Arabia and Turkey. It also participated in the Astana peace talks to come up with a compromise with Ankara and Tehran on Syria. Besides, Russia together with its Syrian allies defeated the Islamic State of Iraq and the Greater Syria (ISIS). Afterwards, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced about the partial withdrawal of the Russian troops from Syria. One of the biggest challenges became the strengthening of the American sanctions against Russia for its alleged interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The Russia dossier probe conducted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller and Congress is also a very important event, because it could deepen the crisis in U.S.-Russia relations. Parliamentary and presidential elections in Europe also matter: They took place amidst the buzz about the Russian cyber threat and hackers, and this indicates that there is not trust toward Russia in European countries today.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Elections, Islamic State, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

1568. The President and the Pontiff: not yet friends, still not enemies

Author:
Daniel Parenkov
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
Donald Trump needed to visit to the Vatican to change the opinion that there were serious differences between the new Administration and the Holy See, expressed in the media. After their mutual attacks during the US electoral campaign and negative reaction of the Catholic community to Trump’s first legislative initiatives, the meeting with Pope Francis was aimed at restoring president’s relations with the world’s biggest religion and sending a positive message to its 70 million followers in the United States.
Topic:
Religion, Catholic Church, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe, Vatican city, and United States of America

1569. Goodwill toward Men? Ukraine’s Autocephalous Orthodox Churches

Author:
Ivan Loshkarev
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
Ukraine’s legislative initiatives to establish state control over religion have recently brought the fate of the Orthodox Church back into the limelight. Despite the delayed vote, the bill can be back on the Parliament’s agenda any time soon. The incumbent government voices its disapproval of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC – Moscow Patriarchate), the only canonical church in the country. This offers hope to several non-canonical religious institutions, which aspire to obtain the status of autocephalous (self-governed) churches. In early 2016, Ukraine’s religious scene was dominated by 9 Orthodox churches (including the Old Believers) and 64 autonomous Orthodox communities. The country’s biggest Orthodox Church – as measured by different criteria – remains the one aligned with Moscow.
Topic:
Government, Religion, and Christianity
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

1570. Macron-Putin Meeting: Russophobia Souring Bilateral Relations and Jeopardizing Press Freedom in France

Author:
Dimitri de Kochko
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
The meeting of the Russian President with his French counterpart has testified to certain changes for the better. First, the anti-Russian sanctions regime imposed by François Hollande looks increasingly likely to be lifted. In addition, for all the arrogance of the French president, several statements allow us to hope for improved bilateral relations. He believes that he has the right to lecture Russia on how it should run its affairs. The French media immediately described his behaviour as an attempt to see “the sumptuous setting of the Palace of Versailles take Vladimir Putin’s breath away”.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Freedom of Press
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and France

1571. Difficult Context – Bright Prospects. Outcomes of Russian Parliamentarians’ Visit to Serbia

Author:
Alexander Pivovarenko
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
May 5, Vyacheslav Volodin, the State Duma’s Speaker, paid a significant visit to Serbia for working negotiations with President-Elect Aleksandar Vučić, acting Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić, President of the National Assembly Maja Gojkovic, Serbian Orthodox Church Patriarch Irinej and other officials. The parliamentary delegation’s trip came at a difficult time. Montenegro’s accession to NATO and internal political changes in Macedonia are reconfiguring the military and political landscape of the region. All the events are unfolding amid a massive information campaign mounted by the mass media and Western pundits capitalizing on the issue of Russian influence in the Balkans, with yet another information attack being launched on the day of Volodin’s visit. Moreover, Russia’s relations with Montenegro have reached their lowest point over the past year. In its turn, Serbia is completing the phase of consolidation of Vučić’s regime. The agenda includes the creation of a new government, which may require new parliamentary elections. It is noteworthy that the President-Elect, however, fails to command total popular support. At the same time, Vučić is singled out for allegations and fierce criticism for embracing Euro-Atlantic integration. When it comes to Russia’s assets and liabilities in the Balkans, Volodin’s stay in Serbia, therefore, was of particular importance.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Serbia, and Montenegro

1572. Trump’s Political Future: the Russia Factor

Author:
Nikolay Pakhomov
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
The US Constitution vests the president, the head of the executive branch, with considerable power to formulate the country’s foreign policy. Regardless of the proactive stance of some Congressmen in dealing with external issues, America’s foreign policy has historically been shaped by presidents, their temperament, experience, ideological leanings, and quite often it has been affected by their domestic policy. The latter can be central to understanding and forecasting the Trump administration’s steps related to Russia. Nowadays only the elites can initiate and introduce changes in the US-Russian interaction. Economic cooperation is also limited.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Donald Trump, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

1573. NATO-Russia Relations: Overcoming Agony

Author:
Akop Gabrielyan
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
ANALYSISOPINION NATO-Russia Relations: Overcoming Agony 17.07.2017Featured Image Akop A. Gabrielyan – the founder and the leader of the “Consensus” youth NGO, expert in the policy of the post-soviet states. If anything, the central tenet of the Hippocratic oath: first do no harm – Primum non nocere – is the first motto to be applied to today’s dialogue between Russia and NATO, a military and political organization. The dialogue essentially boiling down to interaction between Russia and the United States, the alliance’s leader, has offered fewer grounds for optimism over the years. Noticeably worse relations, whose downward spiraling trend is too serious a phenomenon to be even referred to as “the Cold War”, are degenerating into an agony. This is testified by some experts predicting an unavoidable military conflict and a real deterioration in the situation amid the Ukraine and Syria conflicts that Russia and NATO (the US) treat differently. For instance, Moscow officially suspended a deal with the US to prevent mid-air collisions over Syria in response to America’s attitude towards April’s deadly chemical attack in Syria’s Idlib province.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and United States of America

1574. A war of narratives: a comparative map on how the leading US and Russian newspapers reported the first meeting between Trump and Putin

Author:
Fernanda Magnotta and Roman Chukov
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
Last Friday, during the G20 summit, the US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for the first time. The meeting was surrounded by expectations and marked by all types of speculation. The bilateral relationship has been controversial since the Obama administration, but the polemics have gained momentum in last year’s election when Trump came to power. Trump’s agenda becomes even more critical as he has been waging a war on the American media since the campaign. Trump popularized the term “fake news” by accusing the CNN network of making up facts, and made the “post-truth” concept the word of the year of 2016, according to Oxford University. In addition, he decided to communicate directly with the American society through Twitter not to depend on the curatorship of the country’s major media outlets.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Media, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

1575. Donald Trump is America’s Boris Yeltsin. What The Two Presidents Have In Common

Author:
Nikolay Pakhomov
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
When US President Trump on August 2 signed a bill that reinforces and expands to some extent sanctions on Moscow, the anti-Russian campaign emerged somewhat divorced from real policy-making. The bill has clarified the Congress position on the matter, with the ongoing investigation into Trump’s and his acolytes’ alleged ties with Russia shifting public attention to the legal aspect. While lambasting Trump, some intellectuals seek to establish nominal correlations between the US president and Russia and to draw historical parallels between the two countries. This clearly creative approach on the part of experts and pundits produces remarkable results.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, Donald Trump, and Boris Yeltsin
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

1576. Nation-Branding: the Case of Russia

Author:
Anna Velikaya
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
Russia seems to have finally realized in recent years that nation branding, seen as a set of actions to improve country’s image abroad, is a form of investment, not a cost. In order to analyze the Russian approach to nation branding, it is necessary to highlight several dimensions: economic, scientific, cultural, sport, media, and development.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Public Opinion, Economy, Soft Power, and Cultural Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

1577. Britain’s Social Media Woes

Author:
Emil Pevtsov
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
Social media and especially microblogging are trending buzzwords in the public diplomacy scene. Disproportionate attention is paid to individual posts and trends on social media by the mainstream media. The best case are the tweets of Donald Trump, the president of the USA. They are reported on and analysed daily with unparalleled ferocity, with some outlets meticulously collecting all of the President’s social media comments. It has come to a point at which discussing social media is beating an already beaten up dead horse. Nevertheless, this weekend’s latest news requires comment and policy recommendation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Social Media
Political Geography:
Britain, Russia, and Eurasia

1578. Contradictions of “Gray Zone” Conflict

Author:
Lada Kochtcheeva
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
With the advance of globalization, the spread of new technologies and communication, diffusion of power to non-state actors, as well as the emergence of new forms of rivalry and statecraft, the concept of “gray zone” conflict has very recently produced substantial debates in the US and internationally. Most analysts do not view this phenomenon as entirely new, but they distinguish certain characteristics of gray zone and argue that it will progressively depict and challenge the international system in the near future. The gray zone form of conflict is usually defined by the presence of several crucial elements including rising revisionist states that seek to alter some aspect of the existing, status quo international order, incremental or gradual strategy often ambiguous, and unconventional tools, which are short of outright war. Actors using a gray zone method strive to achieve their goals while minimizing the scope and scale of actual fighting[3]. Russia’s actions in Eastern Europe are often described by the theorists of gray zone conflict as using multi-instrument strategies while employing direct action. China’s use of incremental approaches to produce a critical basis for its claims in the South China Sea also represents a prominent example of the gray zone conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Globalization, Conflict, and Gray Zone
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, and United States of America

1579. From February to October

Author:
Elena Ponomareva
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
In the Annual Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly, President Vladimir Putin placed special emphasis on the idea that the anniversary of the February Revolution and the October Revolution is “a good moment for looking back on the causes and nature of these revolutions in Russia. Not just historians and scholars should do this; Russian society in general needs an objective, honest and deep-reaching analysis of these events”. Indeed, history is a great teacher giving us a variety of cases and making us draw numerous lessons. However, we need to learn from our experience and apply our knowledge to specific circumstances and particular landscape for these lessons to be more than just a tribute to the memory of the events. We must learn from our historical, political, and social errors and contribute to the state’s development.
Topic:
History, Revolution, and Russian Revolution
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

1580. Pragmatism and Common Sense – No Margin for Error

Author:
Maxim A. Suchkov
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
The American military strike on a Syrian airbase has rather demonstrated President Trump’s burning desire to adopt a more hawkish stance – both at home and abroad – than has been launched merely in retaliation for the terrible chemical attack. At home, it was a gimmick to consolidate his position in Congress, secure bipartisan support (primarily GOP’s approval), cement his voting base, and shed the image of the Kremlin’s lackey, which has increasingly been weakening his presidential mandate and left little room for political maneuver. Moreover, this step was due to receive the approbation of the major “domestic sponsors”, including the military-industrial complex, the oil industry, and financiers. Finally, it can be treated as the comeback of the “strong leader”, the translation of Trump’s election pledge into a policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, Syrian War, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

1581. Dancing for the Cameras while Europe and Syria Burns

Author:
Matthew Crosston
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had a brief visit at the White House on Wednesday, April 12, 2017, which was followed by all of the typical press conferences and media interviews expressing new found agreement and harmony. It is yet another example in the Presidency of Donald Trump where explicitly bold and brash campaign trail criticism ended up not just softened but utterly reversed.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Syria

1582. The lessons of the Annual Crisis

Author:
Ilya Dyachkov
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
Occasional escalations on the Korean Peninsula each time are hotly debated in mass media, but can hardly surprise experts. Typically, difficult periods start in spring and there are several reasons for that. Exactly at this time the United States and the Republic of Korea usually conduct a joint exercise. This fact cannot but bother the DPRK. By the way, the scale of the maneuvers becomes larger every year: for instance, the personnel can practice such operation as seizure of Pyongyang. One more reason is connected with the actions and statements of North Korea itself. The North Korean missile launches, making Seoul and Tokyo nervous, usually “fall” exactly on May or April.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Crisis Management, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
South Korea, North Korea, Korean Peninsula, and United States of America

1583. The Art of the Deal, the AK-47 and the Arms Trade Treaty

Author:
Simon Adams
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
When we think of the Holocaust our mind slips inexorably to dismal images of cattle cars stuffed with people, or to gas chambers, crematoria and the cruel irony of the “Arbeit Macht Frei” gate. But of the six million Jews killed during the Holocaust over a million were shot with rifles and other small arms. They were not killed in concentration camps, but were murdered in fields or forests and pitched into mass graves outside villages in Nazi-occupied Eastern Europe. Before Auschwitz, Sobibor or Treblinka, the Holocaust began with bullets. The same is true of most mass atrocities carried out since 1945. From the killing fields of Cambodia to the burnt villages of Darfur, most of the killing was done with rifles and other small arms. It is for this reason that there is an enduring connection between preventing atrocities and confronting the international arms trade. The AK-47, or Kalashnikov, is the most popular weapon in the world today, with an estimated 70 million currently in existence. Numerous countries manufacture local variants of the ubiquitous assault rifle and while a new Chinese-made AK-47 might cost you $500, you can easily purchase one in many former conflict zones for as cheap as $50. When I lived in Johannesburg during the mid-1990s, leftover AK-47s from the civil war in Mozambique were still making their way through the townships and some entrepreneurial gangs were even renting out their AK-47s to other aspiring criminals at an hourly rate.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Weapons, Arms Trade, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, United Nations, and Global Focus

1584. Conflict Averted Without Anyone Firing a Shot: Subregional, Multilateral Action Helps Prevent Atrocities in The Gambia

Author:
Jaclyn Streitfeld-Hall
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
The Gambia, the smallest country in mainland Africa, made big news in January 2017, when Adama Barrow became the nation’s third president after defeating incumbant Yahya Jammeh in the December 2016 elections. Jammeh initially refused to accept the results, which triggered a constitutional crisis and threat of mass conflict. Following is the story of how mass violence was averted was averted through multilateral regional intervention and peaceful transition of governance.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, History, Multilateralism, Violence, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Africa and Gambia

1585. The Missing Middle: A Political Economy of Economic Restructuring in Vietnam

Author:
Matthew Busch
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Despite impressive economic performance, Vietnam’s strong trade and investment gains have yet to fully overcome the vestiges of its economic past. Economic restructuring and greater integration with the international economic system has brought Vietnam impressive gains in wealth, trade, and investment. Such efforts have not, however, resolved Vietnam’s ‘missing middle’ or the lack of a productive domestic private sector and the continued dominance of the state-owned sector. While these challenges represent a risk to Vietnam’s future growth potential, initiatives such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership provide an opportunity for further trade and investment expansion.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Investment, Trade, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Asia, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

1586. PNG in 2017 | An Analysis of Papua New Guinea's Political Condition and Trends Through to 2025

Author:
Bal Kama
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Papua New Guinea entered its 2017 National Election after a tumultuous period in the country's politics and economy, and there remains much uncertainty about the election process, with significant implications for the country's future. In the last ten years key political, bureaucratic, and regulatory institutions have struggled and in some cases, failed. These struggles have been more profound under the O'Neill government despite some tangible advances in the country's ambitious Vision 2050 roadmap. There is a widespread desire across the country for robust and independent institutions to ensure economic gains are transparently and sustainably managed. The ultimate question for many voters in the 2017 general elections was not who would form the next government, but who would be the most credible leader. [3] With elections now over, and the O'Neill government returning for a second term, what does Papua New Guinea expect of the new government and those in power? This analysis attempts to address how key trends in PNG's politics will impact upon both the bureaucracy and regulatory environment. It will identify some of the key actors and how they are likely to change. It will discuss current political trends, their impact on the regulatory and legislative environments and how likely they are to continue in the future. Finally, it assesses the prospects of continuing dysfunction in PNG politics, the further marginalisation and deterioration of the bureaucracy, and how this destructive course might be avoided.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Elections, Regulation, Economy, Institutions, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea

1587. Internal Security in Papua New Guinea: Trends and Prospects

Author:
Sinclair Dinnen
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Concerns about personal security have been prominent in Papua New Guinea for many years. Personal security figures regularly in travel advisories issued by foreign governments. International news coverage of Papua New Guinea is often about violence or crime, reinforcing the country's reputation as a dangerous and lawless place. A visitor to Port Moresby, the sprawling national capital, sees evidence of this in the elaborate security arrangements that shape the urban landscape. Drivers of insecurity in this young nation are complex and multidimensional, stemming from the legacies of a recent colonial past, along with the ongoing challenges of state consolidation and the uneven effects of economic globalisation. The main security threats are non-traditional, including urban crime, gender-based violence, corruption, arms trafficking, border protection, resource poaching, climate change, natural disasters, and transnational crime. Although some view China's growing presence as a potential threat, its activities in Papua New Guinea have been largely confined to diplomacy, development assistance and investment. Prime Minister Peter O'Neill has acknowledged the absence of any "distinct conventional external threat", while PNG's National Security Policy recognises the developmental and political character of the country's security challenges.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Development, Natural Resources, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea

1588. Infrastructure Challenges for Papua New Guinea

Author:
Craig Lawrence
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Climate, topography, population, culture, economics, and finance all conspire to raise significant barriers to providing economic and social infrastructure critical to Papua New Guinea's future development. Compared to developed economies, the physical stock of infrastructure assets in Papua New Guinea is insufficient to deliver the economic and social services needed to drive faster economic growth and improve human development. It faces significant choices as a result that may also be influenced by the public infrastructure requirements of foreign direct investment in export oriented extractive resource sectors. A lack of effective national infrastructure planning and funding constrain PNG's economy and its ability to improve the lives of its citizens through provision of these infrastructure services. This paper briefly reviews several key infrastructure sectors - telecommunications, transport, energy, and urban water - to provide snapshots of their status, identify challenges, and where possible make relevant international comparisons. It also looks at ways to improve the delivery of relevant economic infrastructure: (i) effective planning and prioritisation; (ii) funding strategies for infrastructure investment; (iii) funding of ongoing infrastructure operations; and (iv) consideration of infrastructure life cycle issues. In addition, in the future effective economic regulation of PNG commercialised infrastructure services will help ensure that consumers benefit from these services. The Independent Consumer and Competition Commission will therefore have an increasingly important role to play.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea

1589. Future Scenarios for Papua New Guinea

Author:
Jonathan Pryke
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Until recently, visitors making their way to the immigration checkpoint at Jacksons International Airport in Port Moresby were greeted with a sign exclaiming, "Welcome to Papua New Guinea: The land of the unexpected". In a nation that is so self-aware of its unpredictability, forecasting future scenarios is like staring into a crystal ball. Quality data is scarce and incomplete, trends are difficult to establish and validate, and prognostications on PNG's future are often dogmatic and politicised. Over the past 42 years Papua New Guinea has defied many of the most negative projections for its future, and navigated a huge number of 'crossroad' situations. Even before 1975, some were arguing that independence would be an unmitigated disaster, and the risk of Papua New Guinea becoming a failed state is a question that has permeated its short history. It is a question that is now being asked more frequently. On one view, Papua New Guinea has managed to "muddle through", largely on the strength of its peoples' resilience in the face of adversity. However, this resilience may be dwindling, and rather than "muddling through", Papua New Guinea may instead be on a "muddling down" trajectory. Its politicians, on the other hand, claim that the country's prospects have never been better. In a nation with so many development challenges and such porous data, it is difficult to identify future scenarios, let alone determine which is most likely. How does one define a failed state in Papua New Guinea, where most of the nation is not dependent on a properly functioning state? Without accurate data, how can one track trends in human development over decades? Should the focus be placed on the country as a whole, or on urban areas, on rural areas, or areas critical for economic development? How can new technological advancements be appropriately accounted for? Drawing on the papers in this series, five variables from each of the sectors addressed in the papers have been identified as critical influences on PNG's development over the next ten years and beyond. From these variables, three potential scenarios emerge, with the most likely scenario that Papua New Guinea will continue to 'muddle through' as it has in the past, failing to meet many expectations of development but defying the country's many detractors, and avoiding state failure.
Topic:
Security, Development, Politics, and State
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea

1590. A Bumpy Road: Societal Trends in Papua New Guinea

Author:
Jonathan Pryke and Paul Barker
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
On many indicators, Papua New Guinea's rapid population growth is outpacing development progress. Service delivery across the country is in decline. Growing urbanisation is increasing the burden on service providers as people who move from rural areas generally lose access to their customary land and become less self-sufficient. More than 40 per cent of the population is under the age of 14. The resulting youth bulge is outstripping very limited formal sector employment opportunities. The needs of the private sector are evolving, and skills development is critical. New immigrant groups are moving in to Papua New Guinea and taking over small and medium businesses that have typically been run by locals, adding further societal and employment pressures. This paper will chart these trends in Papua New Guinea, and the impact they will have on political stability, policymaking and development. It will look at trends in service delivery, employment, and skills development. It will look at the role of new immigrants in Papua New Guinea and future workforce capacity, and assess the government's capacity to deal with these challenges.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Immigration, Urbanization, and Youth
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea

1591. Economic Analysis of Papua New Guinea

Author:
David Osborne, Robert Harden, and Christopher Hoy
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This paper analyses the PNG economy by considering (1) macroeconomic stability; and (2) fiscal policy and debt.
Topic:
Debt, Political stability, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea

1592. Changing Geopolitical Dynamics for Papua New Guinea

Author:
Jenny Hayward- Jones
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The new O'Neill government faces a rapidly changing external environment as it struggles to manage a significant domestic economic downturn and unprecedented pressures on the national budget. Australia remains Papua New Guinea's closest foreign partner; by far its largest bilateral aid partner, trading partner and foreign investor, but its influence is diminishing as that of other actors is growing. China is an increasingly important player - as a trade partner, investor in infrastructure and source of foreign loans, as well as in the small to medium business sector. Relations with other Asian nations are expanding. Large foreign companies are exerting more influence on government policy than most nation state development and trade partners of Papua New Guinea can hope to exercise. These relationships are likely to come into sharper focus over the next year, as the PNG government prepares to host APEC in 2018. It is not clear that the new PNG government has the capacity to pursue the national interest abroad while it is preoccupied with a complex set of challenges at home.
Topic:
Government, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
China, Australia, AustralAsia, and Papua New Guinea

1593. Clear Waters and Green Mountains: Will Xi Jinping Take the Lead on Climate Change?

Author:
Sam Geall
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
President Trump’s retreat on climate change put China ‘in the driver’s seat’. But to really demonstrate leadership, China needs to green its overseas investments. President Trump’s announced withdrawal from the Paris Agreement shone a light on China’s efforts to fight climate change, which are as much about economics and technology as environmental responsibility. Longer-term technological and economic change may lead China to eventually show greater diplomatic ambition on climate. China cannot assume an international leadership position on climate until it deepens its domestic energy transition and greens its overseas investments.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Treaties and Agreements, and Investment
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1594. US-Vietnam Relations Under President Trump

Author:
Huong Le Thu
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Under President Obama the bilateral relationship between the United States and Vietnam flourished. Despite some misgivings about the future direction of US policy in the region under President Trump, Hanoi is working hard to ensure that the relationship continues to expand. With the key elements of President Trump’s Southeast Asia policy still unclear, the president’s visit to the region comes at a critical moment. This is especially the case for Vietnam whose bilateral relationship with its former adversary, the United States, developed significantly under the Obama administration. While Hanoi was disappointed with President Trump’s abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, there are strong signs that the relationship will continue along a positive trajectory.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Donald Trump, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:
Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

1595. Autopilot: East Asia Policy Under Trump

Author:
Aaron L. Connelly
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Donald Trump has put US policy in East Asia on autopilot. But that could leave the United States far off course — and in a crisis, Trump will be required to fly the plane. Despite President Donald Trump’s promise to adopt an America First foreign policy, US policies in East Asia — on issues from trade, to diplomatic engagement, to the North Korean nuclear crisis — now more closely resemble those of Trump’s predecessors than his campaign vision. There are few advisers around President Trump with the necessary expertise, experience, and inclination to implement an America First foreign policy in Asia. Most principals hold conventional Republican views, and lead institutions that have advanced conventional policies. As a result, US policy in East Asia is on autopilot. The greatest risks are not a deliberate crash, but that of a crisis, in which the autopilot will disengage and President Trump will be required to fly the plane; or that the United States will drift far off course before a qualified pilot can retake control.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Asia, North America, and United States of America

1596. Nepal: Why Funding for Orphanages is Harming the Children it Aims to Help

Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Elevate Children Funders Group
Abstract:
Private philanthropic support for vulnerable or orphaned children often has a strong focus on the funding of orphanages. Despite powerful evidence of the negative impact of orphanage care, private donors continue to provide large amounts of funding to orphanages through donations, volunteer tourism, mission trips and other forms of fundraising – adding to the pull factors drawing more vulnerable children into institutional care and away from family or community care.
Topic:
Children, Public Policy, and Funding
Political Geography:
Nepal

1597. Haiti: Why Funding for Orphanages is Harming the Children it Aims to Help

Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Elevate Children Funders Group
Abstract:
Private philanthropic support for vulnerable or orphaned children often has a strong focus on the funding of orphanages. Despite powerful evidence of the negative impact of orphanage care, private donors continue to provide large amounts of funding to orphanages through donations, volunteer tourism, mission trips and other forms of fundraising – adding to the pull factors drawing more vulnerable children into institutional care and away from family or community care.
Topic:
Children, Youth, Public Policy, and Funding
Political Geography:
Haiti

1598. Global Priorities in Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Practitioner Perspectives

Author:
Sam Mullins and James Howcroft
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
This research note reports the results of a pilot questionnaire on priorities in terrorism and counterterrorism, which was completed by seventy-five security-sector professionals from more than fifty countries who attended the Program on Terrorism and Security Studies (PTSS) at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (GCMC) in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, from July to August, 2017. The results reveal that these practitioners consider terrorism to be one of the most serious threats to stability in their countries. Participants were especially concerned with jihadist terrorism and were more or less equally concerned with lone actors versus foreign fighters. The majority identified online versus offline methods as most important to terrorist recruitment, however this difference of opinion was not large. Looking to the future, they viewed hacking/cyber attacks by terrorists as particularly likely. In terms of counter-terrorism (CT), intelligence agencies were seen as playing the lead role, while cooperation between domestic CT agencies was seen as the biggest challenge. In contrast to this, terrorist use of encrypted communications was seen as least challenging. Participants were evenly split in their views on political negotiations with terrorists, but displayed a comparatively high degree of optimism about the prospects of deradicalization. Nevertheless, they also appeared to hold a government-centric view of CT, seeing relatively little role for civil society and non-governmental organizations. Border control was viewed as the capability most in need of further development.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1599. Towards a More Equal Indonesia: How the government can take action to close the gap between the richest and the rest

Author:
Luke Gibson
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The gap between the richest and the rest in Indonesia has grown faster in the past two decades than in any other country in South-East Asia. The four richest men in Indonesia now have more wealth than the poorest 100 million people. Inequality is slowing down poverty reduction, dampening economic growth and threatening social cohesion. President Jokowi has made fighting inequality his administration's top priority for 2017. This report shows how he could achieve this by enforcing a living wage for all workers, increasing spending on public services, and making big corporations and rich individuals pay their fair share of tax.
Topic:
Inequality, Economic Inequality, Social Cohesion, and Elites
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

1600. Together Again: Reuniting refugee families in safety – what the UK can do

Author:
Josephine Libel and Anna Musgrave
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper highlights how the UK government could do more to enable refugees with family members in the UK to travel here safely. The current rules leave families facing impossible decisions: bring some family members to safety but leave others behind, often at even greater risk as they may be isolated and alone in dangerous circumstances; or put their loved ones’ lives in the hands of smugglers in a desperate attempt to be together in the UK. By changing its restrictive policy, the UK government could help make families more resilient in the face of displacement, prevent men, women and children from embarking on dangerous journeys, and support the integration of refugees in the UK.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Refugees, Displacement, and Conflict
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe