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Begin New Search Topic International Relations Content Type Commentary and Analysis Publication Year within 25 Years

1. Leveraging the Gaps in Russia and China’s Complex Relations with Iran

Author:
Richard Nephew
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Far from signaling a strong trilateral alliance, their history of often transactional cooperation reveals strategic gaps that Washington can leverage to help curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. For all the hoopla that preceded it, the trilateral China-Iran-Russia meeting on Tehran’s nuclear program did not appear to generate anything of great significance. The joint statement issued after the March 15 Beijing gathering largely echoed previous such documents, from condemning “unlawful unilateral sanctions” against Iran to reiterating a mutual desire for a diplomatic solution. That said, the mere act of holding the meeting may have been the objective, to signal to the world that the three countries stand together. This show of unity could have immediate practical effects given the partial expiration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2025—including the “snapback” provision that permits the UN to reimpose full sanctions on Iran if a JCPOA participant triggers the mechanism. At the same time, the three governments still have diverging historical and strategic interests on a range of issues—differences that will not dissipate just because they hold a joint meeting and share friction with the United States. If Washington hopes to exploit these fault lines, however, it must properly understand them.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, and Middle East

2. The Italian Job: Navigating between the UK, the EU and Trump

Author:
Luca Cinciripini
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Amid the transatlantic rift in the first months of the second Trump administration, Italy and the United Kingdom are seeking to position themselves as ‘transatlantic bridges’, drawing either on long-standing alliances or ideological affinities, to keep channels of dialogue open on shared challenges. However, this balancing act carries significant risks, particularly for Italy. The UK, no longer bound by European Union membership, enjoys greater autonomy in its dealings with the United States, although it risks undermining efforts to reset its relationship with the EU. Rome’s more ambiguous positioning between Washington and Brussels, by contrast, could weaken the EU’s unity at the negotiating table, eroding the coherence of its external action and contributing to internal fragmentation. Ultimately, bilateral initiatives by London and Rome may well serve to reinforce transatlantic cohesion – or to deepen its divisions and weaken the foundations of the EU.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Italy

3. Renavigating a Soft Power Relationship Between the West and Tunisia

Author:
Oussama Boudhrioua
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Without a sea change, U.S. and European soft power will continue to erode in Tunisia at a moment of increasing crisis for the country. For decades, Tunisians have viewed their country’s relationship with the West as a relationship built on a sense of mutual alliance. Tunisia has long seen itself as a vital ally for both the United States and Europe; in 2012 a host of bilateral and multilateral agreements solidified the economic and political ties between Tunisia and Europe, and in 2015 Washington deemed Tunisia a Major Non-NATO Ally. These relationships span much of the past century; aside from being under French and Italian control during the colonial period, Tunisia became a key site of conflict in the North African theater during World War II, when Allied forces eventually broke into the Italian peninsula from the south. And for many Tunisians coming of age in the 1990s, the United States was seen as the ideal model of a superpower. Despite these deep ties between Tunisia and the West, the true nature of the country’s relationship with the United States and Europe continues to be unclear and ever-changing. However, geopolitical shifts and harsh realities have snuffed out that once-bright optimism. In Tunisia, the recent actions of the United States in the region have damaged its reputation, perhaps irreparably. This was evident in the United States' stance on the ongoing war in Gaza since last October, where it did not intervene effectively to stop the war using its diplomatic leverage. Moreover China, Russia, and other powers are steadily making economic and political inroads at the expense of the United States and Europe.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

4. Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 2)

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Ankara’s push for “soft recentralization” in Iraq will likely include more intensive efforts to establish the Development Road and prioritize Baghdad’s interests, though without abandoning the Kurdistan Region. As discussed in Part 1 of this PolicyWatch, Turkey’s Syria strategy is rather circuitous, potentially involving simultaneous negotiations with the Assad regime and the United States while running the risk of damaging relations with Washington if the two governments fail to coordinate their moves. In contrast, Ankara’s Iraq strategy—which boils down to promoting Turkish money over Iranian guns—is more straightforward and likely to receive U.S. backing. To this end, Ankara has conceived the Development Road, a proposed trade network that would run across Iraq and Turkey, connecting Asian and European markets via the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Initially, the project ran counter to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a U.S.-proposed route stretching from India through the Arabian Peninsula and Levant to Europe. Yet the Gaza war and ongoing Houthi maritime attacks have raised security concerns about commercial shipping through the Red Sea, suddenly boosting the prospects of the Development Road at IMEC’s expense. With Gulf money behind the project, Turkish policymakers predict the Development Road’s initial routes could open as early as 2027. Washington should consider throwing its support behind this initiative as well, particularly if it needs to counterbalance Iranian influence in Baghdad following a full or partial U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

5. China-Taiwan Relations and the EU: How European Soft Power Could Help Reduce Cross-Strait Tensions

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Russia’s war against Ukraine has brought back to the spotlight the question of China’s (officially the People’s Republic of China, PRC) potential attack on Taiwan (officially the Republic of China, ROC). Beijing claims that the island is one of its provinces, whereas the current Taiwanese government maintains that it is already an independent country. A conflict over Taiwan – or even a Chinese blockade of the island – would have immediate economic and political implications for Europe which will likely impose sanctions on the PRC, the EU’s second-largest trading partner.[1] The EU is not a security actor in East Asia, but has some formidable – and unique – soft power assets that could be leveraged to promote dialogue and understanding between China and Taiwan, with the objective of reducing tensions in the area and maintaining the status quo.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, and Asia

6. Global History and International Relations: a discussion with Ayşe Zarakol, Glenda Sluga, and Heidi Tworek

Author:
Ayşe Zarakol, Heidi Tworek, and Glenda Sluga
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:
IR scholars and Historians are increasingly in dialogue these days, trying to give meaning and substance to how we think about the international order, not least what it is. This conversation between Ayşe Zarakol (AZ), Heidi Tworek (HT), and Glenda Sluga (GS) engages Zarakol’s British Academy ‘Frontiers of Knowledge’ funded grant which aims to bring IR scholars and Historians together to think about disorder:Pathways from Disorder to Order: Where History Meets Theory.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Interview, and International Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Assessing Realist and Liberal Explanations for the Russo-Ukrainian War

Author:
Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
Many commentators have claimed that the Russo-Ukrainian War invalidates or refutes core aspects of realist international relations (IR) theory. However, the opposite is the case: many realists correctly predicted the war, and realism offers a compelling explanation for its causes, while explanations based on liberal IR theory are weak and often inconsistent with the evidence. By focusing on factors like the balance of power and the security dilemma, the realist explanation for the Russo-Ukrainian War emphasizes Russian security concerns in the face of NATO expansion and Western-sponsored regime change. Liberal explanations, by focusing on the internal attributes of states and their decision-makers, instead attribute the war to the pathologies of the Russian government. The dominant liberal narratives regarding the causes of the war are that Russian President Vladimir Putin has always been intent on reincorporating Ukraine into Russia and/or that the democratic example set by post-Maidan Ukraine would threaten President Putin’s own autocratic rule at home. Neither of these explanations stand up to scrutiny. For decades, a long list of policymakers, diplomats, and scholars warned against Western encroachment on Russia’s borders and cautioned that a crisis like the current war could erupt due to continued NATO enlargement. These predictions are consistent with realist theory and the explanations for the war offered by realists. Liberal IR theory encourages a crusading, messianic, and highly militarized foreign policy that consistently produces outcomes inimical to U.S. interests. Realist IR theory offers a better framework through which to understand international politics and encourages a more prudent foreign policy that defends fundamental U.S. security interests while avoiding unnecessary conflicts with other powers.
Topic:
International Relations, Realism, Liberalism, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8. Italy’s Pivot to the Indo-Pacific – Towards a Value-driven Foreign Policy?

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy is stepping up its involvement in the Indo-Pacific, both in the economic and security realms. The cabinet led by Giorgia Meloni – a centre-right coalition often portrayed by commentators as right-wing and nationalist – is rebalancing Rome’s policy in the Far East by scaling down ties with Beijing and by effectively lending support to the United States and its Asian allies vis-à-vis an increasingly assertive and self-confident China. Moving away from previous centre-left governments that tended to prioritise commercial relations with Beijing, the conservative coalition in power since September 2022 has been fostering defence-related cooperation with Japan and India and chip-related cooperation and investments with Taiwan. Moreover – and remarkably for a country that has long been absent from Asian security – the Italian government has sent a patrol vessel to the South China Sea and plans to forward the country’s flagship aircraft carrier to the area to conduct joint exercises with the navies of Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The quantity and quality of initiatives being undertaken warrant the label of an Italian ‘pivot’ to the Indo-Pacific. By upgrading its presence in the region, Italy joins the other G7 nations in their efforts to uphold the rules-based order and dissuade Beijing from invading Taiwan. However, to consolidate the western anchorage of this pivot, the Meloni government needs to fully align its policy towards Beijing with that of the Euro-Atlantic allies – which includes deciding whether to continue to lend Italy’s official support to China’s Belt and Road Initiative or not.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, Italy, and Indo-Pacific

9. BSC Trends: Reconstructing the Global (Dis)Order

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
We proudly present you the ‘BSC Trends: Reconstructing the Global (Dis)Order,’ the companion publication to the Belgrade Security Conference 2023, held in Belgrade from October 11th to 13th, 2023. This publication aims to shed light on and discuss, following the style of BSC discussions, the most significant global, regional, and local events, phenomena, and developments that have marked this year. These topics were part of the panel discussions in this year’s BSC conference program. The authors of the texts in this publication have taken an additional step by attempting, thoroughly and analytically, to foresee events in the near future within each of the covered subjects. The significance of this publication lies in its capacity to indicate, over an extended period, the primary directions in the development of foreign and security policies, international relations, the European Union, the third power influence, the existence of the global order, and the phenomenon of globalization. It explores how these aspects impact geopolitics, the Balkans, international relations, EU enlargement, the rise of right-wing politics in Europe, the Ukraine conflict, and the Middle East. Starting this year, after each edition of the Belgrade Security Conference, this publication will be released to capture the essence of the discussed themes that defined the conference. Furthermore, it will expand these themes through analyses by the finest researchers of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, along with our external partners, friends of the institution, and other invited authors.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Globalization, European Union, and International Order
Political Geography:
Europe

10. Tasks for North Korea Policy After the Washington Declaration

Author:
Yu-hwan Koh
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Yu-hwan Koh, the President of the Korea Institute for National Unification, acknowledges the progress made in maintaining the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty regime and bolstering extended deterrence capabilities against North Korean nuclear threats through the Washington Declaration. Nevertheless, he underscores the lack of a fundamental solution to halt further advancements in Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities. Dr. Koh emphasizes the importance of establishing normalized relations between the United States and North Korea, particularly considering that North Korea now possesses nuclear weapons and is unlikely to return to denuclearization talks. In response, he reiterates the significance of the ROK-US alliance in strengthening the Three-Axis system and developing new weapon systems that can effectively counter North Korea's nuclear capabilities.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, and United States of America