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62. US-China Economic Relations Under Pressure From COVID-19
- Author:
- Christopher A. McNally
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- With both the US and China facing a long economic slowdown, the bilateral relationship between the globe's two largest economies faces massive challenges. Making matters worse, Washington and Beijing have attempted to divert domestic attention away from their own substantial shortcomings by blaming each other. Given the economic uncertainty, each side has limited leverage to force the other into making concessions. Harsh rhetoric only serves to inflame tensions at the worst possible time. For better or worse, the US and China are locked in a messy economic marriage. A divorce at this time would exact an enormous cost in an already weakened economy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
63. The Coronavirus Blame Game Intensifies the US-China Information War for International Public Opinion
- Author:
- Kyoko Kuwahara
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The hardening of US attitudes toward China's exercise of sharp power in recent years has been dramatic. As a result, China's sharp power has been eliminated from the US, and the confrontational structure between the US and China has shifted from a "US-China trade war" to a "political war" or "information war". Since the beginning of 2020, the two superpowers have engaged in verbal warfare over responses to the new coronavirus. Whenever the US criticizes China, China shifts the blame to the US, and they use the media to restrain each other. Now the US and China are fighting against the new coronavirus even as they also waging a "propaganda war" against each other.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
64. U.S. Dynamic Force Employment and the Pandemic: Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance
- Author:
- Tetsuo Kotani
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- "We're not at war. Sailors don't need to die," wrote the captain of the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, which was infected with the novel coronavirus while on a mission at sea in March, in a letter to the Navy's leadership asking for permission to isolate the bulk of his roughly 5,000 crew members on shore. The U.S. Navy dismissed the captain for unnecessarily spreading the sensitive letter, while more than 1,000 crew members, including the captain himself, have been confirmed infected and one has died. In the meantime, the acting chief of the Navy, who had inappropriately criticized the dismissed captain, was forced to resign, and the command and control of the military has been brought into question in the midst of the pandemic of COVID-19.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Armed Forces, Alliance, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
65. The Avoidable War: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition (Collection of Speeches by the Hon. Kevin Rudd)
- Author:
- Kevin Rudd
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Throughout the recent 18 months of the U.S.-China trade war, which has landed in a “phase one” deal, and awaits the tackling of more difficult economic elements in phase two negotiations, there has been a slow and steady structural shift in the U.S.-China relationship as it continues to head in a more adversarial direction. Against the backdrop of this drift toward confrontation occurring in the absence of any common strategic understanding or high-level diplomatic mechanism to manage the mounting economic, security, and technological tensions into the future, Asia Society Policy Institute President the Hon. Kevin Rudd brings together a series of speeches delivered during 2019 in the collection, The Avoidable War: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition. This volume works to help make sense of where the U.S.-China relationship is heading in the current period of strategic competition, and follows on from Rudd’s 2018 collection, The Avoidable War: Reflections on U.S.-China Relations and the End of Strategic Engagement. In this new volume, Rudd focuses not only on the bilateral relationship, but also on China's domestic politics, economics, and its strategic vision. But on the bilateral relationship, Rudd writes that while there may be a truce of sorts on the trade front during 2020, that will not be the case across the rest of the economic, political, and security relationship. Challenges will continue in areas such as the future of 5G mobile telecommunications infrastructure, the Belt and Road Initiative, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, allegations of Chinese political influence and interference in foreign countries’ internal democratic processes, and China’s increasingly close strategic collaboration with Russia. Militarily, tensions will continue in the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and the wider Indo-Pacific, together with confrontations less visible to the public eye in espionage, cyber, and space. Against this backdrop, and the steady erosion of diplomatic and political capital in the overall relationship, Rudd asserts that the “2020s loom as a decade of living dangerously in the U.S.-China relationship.” The Avoidable War: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition includes six speeches from 2019 covering a range of critical challenges in the U.S.-China relationship, as well as a December 2019 conversation at the Harvard Kennedy School which begins to outline an approach to managing the growing tinderbox of tensions across the spectrum of the bilateral relationship.
- Topic:
- Security, Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
66. Paradox of Relations: Russian - Turkish Relations in the Syrian and Libyan Fronts
- Author:
- Dania Koleilat Khatib and Aref Bijan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Over the last few years, Russia has emerged as a significant power broker and military actor in the Middle East. Russia's intervention in the Syrian crisis since 2015 has revived its relations with neighboring countries. This increase in Russia's activity has led to convergence and divergence with other countries in the region. One of those countries is Turkey, which had cooperated at times and had differences at times with Russia in the Middle East, especially in the Syrian and the Libyan crises. Ankara and Moscow are fully engaged in the global competition trying to increase their power and influence. They face off in Syria and Libya. In Syria, Turkey supports the rebels in the North West while Russia supports the Assad regime. In Libya, Turkey supports the Government of National Accord (GNA) while Russia supports Libyan National Army (LNA). Their relation becomes more intricate as both parties got involved in the Caucus, a region of prime importance to both countries. In the vicinity of Russia, the oil route goes Tbilisi-Baku ending up in Ceyhan Turkey. While Turkey supports Azerbaijan, Russia supports Armenia. The Caucus crisis showed how the two countries are rivals that are ready to accommodate each other on a quid pro quo basis. The cease happened concurrently with a partial withdrawal of Turkey from some posts in the North West in Syria. Was there an agreement between Erdogan and Putin in this regard? There are no proofs; however, the various events that are happening from the Caucus to North Africa suggest that those two powers are rivals that are ready to accommodate each other. To add to that, the American retrenchment has encouraged the two powers to flex their muscles in the region. Therefore, given the developments in the region, this article has tried to examine the paradox of Russian-Turkish relations and their strategy in Libya and Syria.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Strategic Competition, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, and Libya
67. Macron Looks East: The French president’s visit to the Baltics offers an opportunity for closer coordination with Germany on Russia policy
- Author:
- Claire Demesmay and Milan Nič
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Part of French President Emmanuel Macron’s European policy is to improve the position of his country in the Eastern European member states of the European Union. Although this is not a change of strategy, but only a new method, it creates favorable conditions for intensified Franco-German dialogue on European strategic issues
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, France, Germany, and Baltic States
68. Next Steps for US-Japan Collaboration on Energy Infrastructure
- Author:
- Courtney Weatherby
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has re-centered discussion of geopolitical competition in Asia around infrastructure. Responding both to BRI and the region’s well-known infrastructure gap, the United States has launched efforts to unlock US private investment for infrastructure. Japan’s engagements in the region emphasize high-quality infrastructure and best practices (an implicit criticism of China’s sometimes less rigorous standards). The foreign policy approaches of the United States and Japan dovetail nicely and have led to many new initiatives and institutional partnerships, as well as the quality-focused Blue Dot Network. But despite the two countries’ intentions to work collaboratively, their efforts have been held back by differences in organizational practices, the lengthy overhaul of US financing, and a lack of immediate movement from US-Japan consortia. For now, a less ambitious approach of closely coordinating technical assistance and conditional funding on proposed projects may serve as a model for closer US-Japan collaboration as efforts mature.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Renewable Energy, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America
69. Time for China to Forge a New Strategy towards the US
- Author:
- An Gang
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Pangoal Institution
- Abstract:
- This summer thus far has greatly frustrated those in support of friendlier China-US relations. China-US trade talks recently took a turn for the worse. The Trump administration, after accusing Beijing of reneging on past trade commitments, has sought to raise tariffs to 25% on US $200 billion worth of imported Chinese goods. The Office of the US Trade Representative has proposed slapping tariffs on nearly all remaining imports from China, which are valued at approximately $300 billion. It is now soliciting public comment on the proposed list, which is expected to be issued as early as late June, following a congressional hearing.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Bilateral Relations, Trade Wars, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
70. Tough Test: Baghdad’s Options Amid the Iranian-US Escalation
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- While the US prepares to withdraw its troops from Syria, it considers redeploying its troops in Iraq. Although this might not have caused a crisis between the two countries, as the US troops have been in Iraq for the past 15 years, the US president Donald Trump justification for the move, to “watch Iran”, has pushed relations between Washington and Baghdad to this path. To make things worse, this move was accompanied by selecting a site in the Anbar governorate for that purpose, which is to reduce Iran’s movements towards Syria through the Iraqi territory, putting Baghdad in trouble with its frenemies.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Crisis Management, Donald Trump, and Hassan Rouhani
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
71. South Sudan and Israel: A love affair in a changing region?
- Author:
- Haim Koren
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Haim Koren analyzes the ongoing relationship between Israel and South Sudan. From the beginning, it made strategic sense for Israel to provide military aid to rebels in South Sudan. This would serve as a useful distraction to Egypt and Sudan, and would open a new and vulnerable front against the Arab World. However, it wasn’t until the June 1967 war that Israel truly acted upon this opportunity, following Khartoum’s decision to support Egypt in that conflict. [1] Joseph Lago, then the leader of the South Sudanese Anya-Nya ("Viper Venom") guerrilla organization, appealed desperately to Israel, asking it to help in preventing integration of Sudanese units within the Egyptian army by pinning them down in an ongoing conflict with the fighters of South Sudan. This would carry a number of advantages for Israel, including strengthening Israel’s operational connections with Kenya and Ethiopia, which were states within Israel’s geo-strategic ‘second circle.’ Providing such aid would also carry moral weight: Israel would help a nation struggling for independence against what south Sudanese felt to be Islamic “tyranny.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Bilateral Relations, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Middle East, Israel, and South Sudan
72. Six Global Health Challenges Facing Russia and the US
- Author:
- Pietro A. Shakarian and Lusine Gigoyan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- U.S.-Russia relations are in a deep crisis. However, the current state of these relations should not prevent the two powers from cooperating on resolving global problems. Rethinking Russia assesses six global health challenges, which can bring Moscow and Washington together.
- Topic:
- Health, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Trafficking, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America
73. Italy Will Form a New Coalition Government in March: Will Russia Benefit?
- Author:
- Bruno Sergi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- A lot in the Russian-Italian relations depends on Italy’s next coalition government. The question is whether the Kremlin really benefits, given the EU’s solidarity regarding the Russia sanctions and the accusations of the Kremlin of meddling in the Italian elections.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Italy
74. Reinforcing Indonesia-Australia Defence Relations: The Case for Maritime Recalibration
- Author:
- Evan A. Laksmana
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- A maritime realignment of Australia–Indonesia defence relations could shape the broader Indo-Pacific security architecture and provide an additional strategic hedge for both countries. One of the key prerequisites for the implementation and sustainability of the newly announced Indonesia–Australia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership is the stabilisation of bilateral defence relations. To achieve such sustainability, bilateral defence engagement should focus on joint maritime challenges. Canberra should formulate long-term plans to assist the modernisation of Indonesia’s armed forces with a focus on maritime security operations, and should increase the number and scope of maritime exercises.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Armed Forces
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Australia, and Asia-Pacific
75. Trump, Kim and the North Korean Nuclear Missile Melodrama
- Author:
- Euan Graham
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The Trump–Kim summit is a distinct new phase in the dramatic cycle that defines the North Korea nuclear issue and the peninsula’s highly theatrical brand of geopolitics. Now that North Korea has finally reached the threshold of a nuclear missile capability to directly threaten the US mainland, its scripted brand of hyperbole and brinksmanship is encountering a different sort of melodrama: the political theatre of Donald Trump. The North Korean nuclear issue cannot be understood without an appreciation of the fundamental tension within inter-Korean relations. There is no precedent for a minor, revisionist power developing an asymmetrical nuclear deterrence relationship with the United States. The result is unlikely to be stable.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
76. Israel and China Take a Leap Forward—but to Where?
- Author:
- Arthur Herman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- There is certainly no denying that, in terms of trade and investment alone, the burgeoning economic partnership between Israel and China has at least the potential of transforming not only Israel itself but also Israel’s position vis-à-vis the rest of the Middle East—and most notably vis-à-vis Iran, which happens to be Beijing’s other key partner in the region. Inevitably, it could also have an impact on Israel’s relations with the United States. But is this a marriage made in heaven? Or is it something else? Weighing the answer to that question involves probing beneath the two countries’ currently successful dynamic of trade and commercial transactions to their respective geopolitical agendas. When it comes to Israel, the acknowledged junior partner, it also requires examining whether and how the relationship with China could become a dependency. Such a change might please Beijing, but it would impose on Israeli national security a new kind of vulnerability, one very different from the challenges it has faced successfully in the past.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, and Asia
77. How buzz on Russia dossier undermines bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington
- Author:
- Andrei Korobkov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- The buzz surrounding the so-called “Russian trace” in the U.S. elections, started by former presidential candidate from the Democratic party Hillary Clinton during her 2016 failed presidential campaign, continues to evolve. New accusations spring up, leading to new investigations. Started in mid-2016 by Clinton’s claims about the Russian hackers, who allegedly disclosed information contained on the Democratic Party National Committee servers, it increasingly targets the members of President Donald Trump’s inner circle, including some of his family members. Appointed to deal initially with a narrow set of issues, the Independent Prosecutor Robert Mueller, the former FBI Director, has to deal with the quickly expanding set of claims and accusations.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Bilateral Relations, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America
78. Macron-Putin Meeting: Russophobia Souring Bilateral Relations and Jeopardizing Press Freedom in France
- Author:
- Dimitri de Kochko
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- The meeting of the Russian President with his French counterpart has testified to certain changes for the better. First, the anti-Russian sanctions regime imposed by François Hollande looks increasingly likely to be lifted. In addition, for all the arrogance of the French president, several statements allow us to hope for improved bilateral relations. He believes that he has the right to lecture Russia on how it should run its affairs. The French media immediately described his behaviour as an attempt to see “the sumptuous setting of the Palace of Versailles take Vladimir Putin’s breath away”.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Freedom of Press
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and France
79. Changing Geopolitical Dynamics for Papua New Guinea
- Author:
- Jenny Hayward- Jones
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The new O'Neill government faces a rapidly changing external environment as it struggles to manage a significant domestic economic downturn and unprecedented pressures on the national budget. Australia remains Papua New Guinea's closest foreign partner; by far its largest bilateral aid partner, trading partner and foreign investor, but its influence is diminishing as that of other actors is growing. China is an increasingly important player - as a trade partner, investor in infrastructure and source of foreign loans, as well as in the small to medium business sector. Relations with other Asian nations are expanding. Large foreign companies are exerting more influence on government policy than most nation state development and trade partners of Papua New Guinea can hope to exercise. These relationships are likely to come into sharper focus over the next year, as the PNG government prepares to host APEC in 2018. It is not clear that the new PNG government has the capacity to pursue the national interest abroad while it is preoccupied with a complex set of challenges at home.
- Topic:
- Government, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Development Aid
- Political Geography:
- China, Australia, AustralAsia, and Papua New Guinea
80. US-Vietnam Relations Under President Trump
- Author:
- Huong Le Thu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Under President Obama the bilateral relationship between the United States and Vietnam flourished. Despite some misgivings about the future direction of US policy in the region under President Trump, Hanoi is working hard to ensure that the relationship continues to expand. With the key elements of President Trump’s Southeast Asia policy still unclear, the president’s visit to the region comes at a critical moment. This is especially the case for Vietnam whose bilateral relationship with its former adversary, the United States, developed significantly under the Obama administration. While Hanoi was disappointed with President Trump’s abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, there are strong signs that the relationship will continue along a positive trajectory.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Donald Trump, and Barack Obama
- Political Geography:
- Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America