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2. Prospects for Iraq-Syria Security Cooperation in a Post-Assad World
- Author:
- Mohanad Faris
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Islamic State threats in the border region necessitate shared efforts between Baghdad and Syria’s new leadership as coalition forces withdraw, but Iraq’s November 11 election and internal divisions over engaging with Damascus are blocking progress.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Islamic State, Rapprochement, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
3. Balancing National Security and Economic Priorities in the U.S.-Jordan Relationship
- Author:
- Saud Al-Sharafat
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the U.S. administration shifts towards an economics-first approach to foreign policy, Jordan will need to find ways to emphasize the benefits of the two countries' decades-long broader strategic relationship in public messaging—both for its own national security interests and as a way to assuage public concerns. Recent developments in U.S.-Jordanian relations, from the announcement of President Trump’s “Middle East riviera” plan for Gaza to tariff announcements—have prompted the question of how Jordan will deal with the current regional challenges it faces as the United States reorients to an economy-focused approach. For a country like Jordan, which has relied on a combination of military support and diplomatic engagement with the United States and Israel for more than seven decades, its primary challenge now lies in integrating these new market-based visions with the realities of the entrenched political conflicts that surround and impact its domestic national security. Jordan will have a dual challenge: managing domestic attitudes towards this U.S. reprioritization and, on an external level, articulating a dynamic and forward-thinking strategy to emphasize its continued importance to U.S. policymakers. On the one hand, Jordan's options in response to a more distant United States are few and far from ideal; yet Jordan has its own strong incentives to promote stability in the region, as well as concrete examples it can point to regarding how the value of its relationship with the United States extends beyond the economic when it comes to the impact of its stability and security in broader regional dynamics. Perhaps most importantly, Jordan has been and can continue to be a regional first line of defense against all types of extremism, whether leftist, nationalist, or religious. Ensuring that this message reaches those in power in the United States may require more extensive and creative avenues than in the past, but will be vital in emphasizing the ongoing value of the relationship.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, Jordan, and United States of America
4. From Interconnection to Integration: German-Italian Energy Relations and the SoutH2 Corridor
- Author:
- Pier Paolo Raimondi and Wolfgang Münchau
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- On 22 November 2023, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, signed a German-Italian Action Plan.[1] The Plan promises greater collaboration between the two countries on the biggest challenges currently facing Europe. Among these priorities is environmentally sustainable economic growth and the acceleration of climate protection. While the Action Plan is relatively terse, focusing on the establishment of fora for greater cooperation rather than providing a detailed roadmap, its energy and climate section does highlight a specific project as an example of closer cooperation: the acceleration of the completion of the so-called South-Central Corridor for the transport of hydrogen throughout Europe. This Corridor has the primary function of enabling the import of hydrogen produced in North Africa into the very core of Europe and thus to the high-demand areas of Germany and Northern Italy. One especially important part is the so-called SouthH2 Corridor, which includes a pipeline running the entire length of the Italian peninsula before connecting to Southern Germany via Austria. There are strong political and strategic arguments for a deeper energy cooperation between Italy and Germany, despite some differences.[2] Hydrogen and gas infrastructure is a key area where intensified cooperation is crucial.[3] Through the SouthH2 Corridor, the two countries have indeed expressed their willingness to collaborate precisely on hydrogen infrastructure, notably the SoutH2 Corridor. However, such cooperation cannot be limited to the infrastructural part; it must extend to a series of related issues in which both countries should seek to align their political and legal initiatives, starting from overcoming uncertainties regarding the development of hydrogen demand and the use of other net-zero technologies in both countries. In short, cooperation on infrastructure can be used as a jumping off point for a deeper collaboration on and exchange of information about their broader transition strategies. Such bilateral coordination would also contribute to the achievement of EU Green Deal objectives more broadly.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Regional Integration, Pipeline, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, and Italy
5. Charting the Course: European Perspectives on EU–Tunisia Relations
- Author:
- Akram Ezzamouri, Colin Powers, and Emmanuel Cohen-Hadria
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Over the past year, a surge in migrant people arriving from Tunisia to Europe has thrust the North African country into the heart of European political agendas, sparking concerns across the continent’s capitals about its hardships and risk of economic and social collapse. The immediate policy response involved a frenzy of Euro-Tunisian diplomatic activity guided by the Italian government – itself needing to demonstrate some kind of answer to increased migratory arrivals to its shores – and culminated in the signing of the EU-Tunisia Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in July 2023.[1] The MoU, structured around five key areas of collaboration – macroeconomic stability, trade cooperation, green energy transition, people-to-people contacts, and migration and mobility – is said by so-called “Team Europe” to aim fostering a strategic and comprehensive partnership between the European Union and Tunisia. However, observers highlighted its detrimental shortsightedness, the flaws in its legal nature, as well as the necessity to allocate political and financial resources beyond migration management to truly diversify the agreement.[2] Against this backdrop, three European experts offer here considerations on challenges and prospects in EU–Tunisia relations and propose alternative avenues where cooperation can evolve, emphasising the creation of a stable and equitable political environment in both Europe and Tunisia.
- Topic:
- Migration, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Migrants
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North Africa, and Tunisia
6. The Aras Corridor: Azerbaijan's Rationale Behind the Deal with Iran
- Author:
- Rahim Rahimov
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Since the 2020 Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia and its subsequent push for the Zangezur Corridor, Baku, and Tehran have been embroiled in fierce waves of escalation. With the launch of construction works for the Aras Corridor as the purported replacement to the Zangezur Corridor, the two nations appear to have made a breakthrough, and a thaw can be seen in current bilateral relations. In lieu of Baku’s strong push for the Zangezur Corridor over the last three years, the change in direction triggers the immediate question as to why Azerbaijan agreed to the Aras Corridor deal with Tehran. In order to properly address this question, it is essential to distinguish Azerbaijan’s Zangezur Corridor project from its Zangezur discourse, which can otherwise lead to misunderstandings. The main reason for Baku’s concession to the Aras Corridor deal with Tehran and backtracking from the Zangezur Corridor is that Baku has achieved its objectives in the Zangezur discourse. Having achieved those objectives, the Zangezur Corridor alone, without the discourse, is of mere local importance to Azerbaijan. Yet the hype around it still persists, with the subsequent international reactions having made the topic somewhat toxic for Azerbaijan.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh
7. The Concept of "Putinism" and its Impact on the "Normalization" of Georgian-Russian Relations
- Author:
- Malkhaz Mikeladze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- In view of the ongoing aggression in Ukraine, the Russian elite is formulating conceptual approaches to justify the inevitability of the escalating confrontation with the West and to encompass the foreign priorities of the Russian Federation. Within expert circles, this combination of approaches is increasingly labeled as “Putinism,” with the belief that its main components will have a decisive impact on Russia’s relations with other countries, including Georgia. Amidst the ongoing polarization of Georgian society, the normalization of relations with Russia emerges as one of the most important issues, a normalization process that has triggered radicalization and sharp confrontation between the government and opposition, further complicating the depolarization process and civil dialogue recommended by the European Union. These challenges themselves seem to be obstacles to European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Therefore, the article aims to review the basic principles of “Putinism” and provide a pragmatic evaluation for the “normalization” of Georgian-Russian relations.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Normalization, Vladimir Putin, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia
8. The future of EU-Turkey relations: Transactional bargaining continues
- Author:
- Toni Alaranta
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Fundamental questions about Turkey’s EU path have been brushed aside for the last ten years. With enlargement back on the agenda, the EU-Turkey relationship seems to be moving towards even more transactionalism, lacking any prospect of meaningful integration.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
9. The Future of U.S.-Turkish Ties: A New Relationship, Not a Reset
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Despite the welcome news on Sweden, the old Turkey is not coming back, but Erdogan’s apparent shift to legacy-building mode will give Washington opportunities to leverage his influence abroad. On January 23, Turkey’s parliament ratified Sweden’s accession to NATO, opening the path for Stockholm’s eventual membership in the alliance. The Biden administration attaches great importance to NATO expansion amid Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, and while the Swedish membership bid must still await a vote by Hungary’s parliament, Turkey’s decision is a major step forward. Previously, Ankara had held off greenlighting Stockholm’s application for nearly two years after it was submitted in May 2022, and the issue became symbolic of deeper dysfunction in U.S.-Turkish ties. This week’s parliamentary vote promises to end that epoch, giving both Washington and Ankara an opportunity to chart a new course even as other differences persist.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, North America, Sweden, and United States of America
10. The Impact of the War in Gaza on Israel-Jordan Cooperation
- Author:
- Saud Al-Sharafat
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Gaza war’s impact on Jordan has been significant and at times uncontrolled, with a primary focus on demands to halt all forms of “bilateral cooperation” with Israel. However, the implementation of the energy for water project is likely only a matter of time, although contingent on cessation of hostilities. The war in Gaza has cast a dark shadow over the promising water and energy cooperation projects between Jordan and Israel. Water and energy are among the most economically and politically sensitive sectors in contemporary Jordan due to the country’s chronic water shortage and the difficulty of securing energy sources for local use. Jordan imports more than 96 percent of its energy needs, with an annual import bill exceeding $3 billion, according to official statistics. The Gaza war has had a direct impact on Jordanian public opinion, with increasing demands that the country withdraws from all its commitments, treaties, and agreements with Israel and halt all forms of cooperation. So far, however, it appears these demands have disrupted only one project, Project Prosperity—or energy for water agreement—which is sponsored by the United Arab Emirates with U.S. approval. Although the project has been suspended, it will likely resume after the war ends, since both parties have an interest in this type of cooperation. Indeed, despite the current tensions, this type of coordination is almost inevitable given the respective situations of both countries, and as one of the most important means of interconnection and networking that can help mitigate armed crises and conflicts between them.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Water, Public Opinion, Energy, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Jordan
11. A New Era in Iraq’s Relations with the West?
- Author:
- Selin Uysal and Devorah Margolin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Amid growing pressure to dissolve the coalition and withdraw troops, the United States and its partners should continue pursuing good relations with Baghdad—but this time with a lighter footprint and increased regional cooperation. At Baghdad’s request, the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) has been ordered to cease operations in December 2025, following a previous decision to shut down the UN team charged with investigating the Islamic State’s crimes in Iraq (UNITAD). Meanwhile, Baghdad plans to close the country’s remaining camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs), first opened at the height of the war against IS. More broadly, it seeks to normalize its diplomatic activism in the region, which recently included mediating rapprochement talks between Turkey and the Syrian regime. Despite the international support and military cooperation that have defined Western relations with Iraq in the post-Saddam era, Baghdad has begun to reevaluate longstanding arrangements. Washington and its partners should follow suit, scrutinizing the current basis of relations with Iraq amid changes in the local and regional environment, while simultaneously preserving the relationship's most beneficial aspects.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Displacement, and Interstate Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
12. A Genocidal Special Relationship
- Author:
- Carlota McAllister
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Guatemala and Israel boast a long friendship dating to the formation of the Zionist state. Their shared histories of violence against Mayas and Palestinians bely each state’s claims to liberation.
- Topic:
- Genocide, History, Bilateral Relations, and Zionism
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Central America, and Guatemala
13. Partnership of convenience: Ream Naval Base and the Cambodia–China convergence
- Author:
- Rahman Yaacob
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- It is unlikely that Ream Naval Base in Cambodia will be a Chinese military base or outpost such as the facility in Djibouti fully operated by the People’s Liberation Army. However, China could gain preferential access to the base or use its facilities there to collect intelligence against other states. The Cambodia–China defence convergence is driven by differing motives. Cambodia seeks a partner to modernise its military so it can meet perceived security threats from Thailand and Vietnam, while China wants to expand its political influence and military reach in Southeast Asia. New political and military leadership in Cambodia offers Australia and other like-minded partners an opportunity to deepen defence relations with the kingdom to counter China’s influence.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Navy
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Cambodia
14. Just stay out: Rejecting the Saudi-Israeli “grand bargain”
- Author:
- William Walldorf
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The proposed “grand bargain” that would normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is a raw deal for the United States. It carries no new benefits for U.S. national security yet will come with very high costs. The two biggest so-called benefits of this proposed agreement for the United States—preventing closer Saudi-Chinese security ties and building the Saudi-Israeli alliance against Iran—already occur without the deal and are thus hardly of value to the U.S. On the other hand, this multifaceted proposal, which includes additional security guarantees, would increase moral hazard on the part of Saudi Arabia and Israel, meaning it could encourage them to engage in reckless behavior and take risks they otherwise wouldn’t because they’d believe the United States would defend them. Putting U.S. troops on the line in Saudi Arabia and providing Riyadh with a nuclear enrichment facility would also threaten Iran in ways likely to intensify regional conflict and draw in the United States. Washington should reject this proposed arrangement. It should loosen rather than tighten its relationships with Saudi Arabia and Israel.
- Topic:
- National Security, Bilateral Relations, Regional Politics, and Grand Bargain
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia
15. Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations
- Author:
- Robert E. Hamilton
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- A debate over the nature of the China-Russia relationship has raged for almost two decades. One side believes the two are strategic partners; the other believes their ties are an “axis of convenience” lacking depth. Understanding the true nature of their relationship is of vital importance to U.S. national security. A true strategic partnership represents a grave threat; less robust ties between the two give the U.S. more latitude in dealing with them. We can gain a deeper, more nuanced understanding of China-Russia ties by observing how they interact in regions of the world where they both have important interests at stake. Four regions emerge as key here: Central Asia, Africa, Eastern Europe, and East Asia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia
16. Water and Climate Change Will Shape Iraq-Turkey Relations
- Author:
- Mohammed A. Salih
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- Water and climate change will be at the center of Iraq-Turkish relations for years to come. There is a mismatch of priorities on the Turkish and Iraqi sides, with security constituting the most urgent element for Turkey and water/environment for Iraq. Iraq lacks effective pressure cards against Turkey, while Ankara can successfully weaponize water against Iraq, particularly in the short and medium run. A holistic approach that integrates the questions of trade, energy, security, and water can best help assuage Iraq’s water needs in dealing with Turkey.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, and Water
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East
17. Hamas Allegations Threaten Another Breakdown in US-South Africa Ties
- Author:
- Michael Walsh
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- A reported call between South African Minister Naledi Pandor and Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh has renewed concerns that the African National Congress and government of South Africa are undermining US national security and foreign policy in the Middle East. This incident comes quickly on the heels of a springtime allegation that the African National Congress and South African government undermined US national security and foreign policy with respect to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Over the summer, members of Congress called into question the eligibility of South Africa for trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and its suitability to host the AGOA Forum. This was in response to the prior allegation that South Africa transferred arms or enabling technologies to Russia. Prior to next month’s AGOA Forum, there is an expectation that the AGOA eligibility determinations for 2024 will be delivered to Congress. This sets the stage for another potential showdown over the AGOA eligibility of South Africa and its suitability to host the AGOA Forum. At this stage, it is unlikely that South Africa will be deemed ineligible for AGOA trade benefits or removed as the host of the AGOA Forum. However, a political debate over its AGOA eligibility could cast a long shadow over the event and lead to another breakdown in the strategic partnership between South Africa and the United States. The White House will want to avoid both of those outcomes.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Israel, South Africa, Palestine, and United States of America
18. Saudi-Houthi Talks Sow Cracks in Coalition – The Yemen Review, January & February 2023
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Ongoing bilateral talks between Saudi Arabia and the armed Houthi movement have renewed optimism that a negotiated political settlement in Yemen might yet be possible. But the talks are an exclusively Saudi initiative and threaten to serve only the narrow interests of their current participants. To date, their primary effect has been the easing of restrictions on imports to Hudaydah, a development quickly weaponized by the Houthis, who have sought to coerce traders to use the port exclusively, which would deprive the internationally recognized government of much-needed customs revenue. Importantly, the talks include neither the government, whose sidelining does little for its popular legitimacy, nor Saudi Arabia’s primary coalition partner, the UAE. On the heels of its massive military reengagement in Yemen over the last eighteen months, the UAE has so far rejected Houthi overtures. The divergent interests of the coalition have come to the fore in Hadramawt, where the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council has sought to extend its influence by agitating against forces affiliated with the Islamist Islah party. This has come up against resistance from local tribal groups, increasingly supported by Saudi Arabia, who are now recruiting thousands of local fighters and protesting outside interference. Increased Saudi involvement in Hadramawt is a blow to the aspirations of the STC and has been compounded by the formation of the new Nation’s Shield forces under President Rashad Al-Alimi. Paid directly by Saudi Arabia, the force could go some way toward enshrining Alimi’s administration; unlike most other members of the council, he previously had no military forces of his own.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations
19. Saudi-Houthi Talks Resume – The Yemen Review, August 2023
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The strategic city of Marib saw an increase in fighting on several fronts. The Houthis have been reinforcing their positions in the area, which they attempted to seize in a massive and costly offensive two years ago. Should negotiations break down, Marib is seen as a likely area of renewed contestation due to its oil and gas resources. A new counterterrorist campaign was launched in Abyan to target Al-Qaeda forces in the governorate. Named ‘Swords of Haws’, the operation is being conducted by an array of STC and pro-government forces. The campaign reported it had succeeded in securing the Rafd and Jenin Valleys, but had faced strong resistance from Al-Qaeda forces in Mudiya district. Frontline fighting on the border of Al-Bayda and Lahj rose significantly in August, including a particularly large Houthi assault on STC positions on August 26-27 that resulted in dozens of casualties. Two Doctors Without Borders employees were kidnapped by unidentified gunmen in Marib as they traveled from Seyoun. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the incident. An officer investigating last month’s killing of World Food Programme Moayad Hameidi was assassinated. The officer, a member of the Taiz Political Security department, had received death threats and demanded he halt the investigation. Five UN employees were released on August 11, after being held captive by Al-Qaeda for more than 18 months. The group was reportedly released after lengthy Omani mediation and the payment of a ransom, though the UN has disputed these claims. Houthi forces continue to besiege villages of the Bani Nawf tribe in Al-Jawf following the killing of a prominent local Houthi commander. A number of tribes have responded by calling for united action, others have sided with the Houthis.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations
20. The Rise and Immediate Fall of Israel-Libya Relations
- Author:
- Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 27, Israeli foreign minister Eli Cohen revealed that he had met with his Libyan counterpart Najla al-Mangoush in Rome, sparking an imbroglio in both of their countries and further abroad. Protests erupted immediately across Libya, including at the Foreign Ministry and the residence of Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba, who likely authorized the meeting. Dabaiba tried to calm the situation by suspending Mangoush and naming an interim foreign minister, while his Government of National Unity (GNU) called the incident a chance encounter alongside Italy’s foreign minister rather than a planned meeting. As protests continued on August 28, Dabaiba appeared at the Palestinian embassy in Tripoli, where he donned a scarf depicting the Dome of the Rock, announced that he had officially dismissed Mangoush, and reiterated Libya’s dedication to the Palestinian cause. Fearing further backlash and potential violence, Mangoush fled to Istanbul. Unlike her predecessors, who were experienced diplomats familiar with Libya’s byzantine Foreign Ministry, Mangoush had no diplomatic background. Dabaiba appointed her in March 2021 only after another female candidate drew criticism, and she faced a unique challenge as a woman among exclusively male foreign ministers across the region. She lacked a power base of her own and wielded narrow influence outside of what Dabaiba and his circle granted her. Yet she was resilient during her first two years in office, surviving calls for her resignation over controversial statements criticizing Turkey’s military presence in Libya, praising Russia’s positive relationship with the GNU, and cooperating with the United States on the extradition of a Pan Am 103 bombing suspect (see below). The State Department named her an International Woman of Courage in 2022, citing her work with civil society organizations and her expertise in conflict resolution (gained in part from PhD work at George Mason University).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Libya, and North Africa
21. Diverging Perspectives on Improving Bilateral Relations: Analysis of the 2023 Korea-Japan Joint Opinion Poll
- Author:
- Yul Sohn, Yang Gyu Kim, and Hansu Park
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In 2023, relations between South Korea and Japan began to thaw. Since the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Korea announced the solution to address disputes regarding forced labor under Japanese colonial rule in March, six bilateral summits were held in the following six months. Intergovernmental exchange has also rapidly increased. With mediation from the United States, South Korea and Japan established consultative groups to address various issues, creating channels of communication between their foreign affairs, defense, industry, finance, and national security offices. People-to-people exchanges, primarily driven by tourism, have also returned to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. Since 2012, they have been stuck over the issue of Comfort Women, and after the 2018 Supreme Court ruling, they were in a standoff over the issue of forced labor, a period that can be considered a “crisis of trust” between the two governments. Is 2023 really a year for both countries to put the “lost decade” behind them and usher in a new era? How do the citizens of both countries assess the changes in relations between their two governments? What do they think is the driving force behind the improvement in relations? Has mutual perception improved as relations have improved? Do they perceive that the historical issues, the culprits of the “lost decade,” are being resolved? The results of this year’s survey, marking the 11th year since initiated in 2013, are very interesting and carry significant potential interpretations and policy implications. Firstly, citizens of both countries perceived an improvement in their bilateral relations. Positive evaluations have reached their highest levels, while negative evaluations have hit their lowest points since the survey began. Secondly, there is a noticeable difference in the way citizens of both countries view the progress in bilateral relations. In the case of Japan, favorable opinions have increased with rising favorability toward South Korea, the importance of Korea-Japan relations, support for trilateral security cooperation with the United States and South Korea, and support for a solution to the issue of forced labor. On the other hand, South Korean public opinion has not seen a corresponding increase in positive sentiment regarding these issues, despite increased awareness of an improved relations. Thirdly, these result disparities are reflected in how citizens of both countries assess their governments’ efforts to improve relations. Japanese public opinion supports the efforts of both their own government and the South Korean government to improve relations, while South Korean public opinion has not shown strong support for them. Fourthly, historical issues continue to be a major variable affecting bilateral relations. Citizens of both countries consider historical issues as the primary factor in the development of bilateral relations. South Korea focuses on Japan’s historical perceptions, including issues related to wars, history textbooks, forced labor, and Comfort Women. Japan, on the other hand, is concerned with South Korea’s stance, including anti-Japanese education, statements by South Korean politicians and media about Japan, and excessive anti-Japanese actions by South Koreans. From this survey, it can be interpreted that South Korea believes Japan’s historical perceptions have not changed, while Japan believes that South Korea’s anti-Japanese stance is being corrected. However, the fact remains that there are still significant differences in historical perceptions between the two countries. The implications of the survey results are clear. Both countries need to expand and strengthen functional cooperation in areas such as security and the economy while also making progress towards reconciliation in historical perceptions. Only when these two wheels of functional cooperation and historical reconciliation move together can the South Korea-Japan relationship truly move onto the right track.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, Polls, and Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and South Korea
22. 2023 EAI Public Opinion Poll on the International Affairs: ② China and the ROK-China Relations
- Author:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Amid the deepening U.S.-China strategic competition, East Asia Institute (EAI) conducted a public opinion poll to discern the Korean people’s perception of China and ROK-China relations. EAI presents the survey results in chart form in the “EAI Public Opinion Briefing.” Despite predominantly negative impressions of China and President Xi Jinping, over 80 percent of respondents believe that Korea-China relations is crucial for Korea. The survey results unveiled public opinion that separately recognizes the favorability and significance of China.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Polls
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and South Korea
23. 2023 EAI Public Opinion Poll on the International Affairs: ① The US and the ROK-US Relations
- Author:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In celebration of the 70th Anniversary of the ROK-US alliance, East Asia Institute (EAI) conducted a public opinion poll to assess the Korean people`s perceptions of the United States and the ROK-US alliance. EAI presents the survey results in chart form in the `EAI Public Opinion Briefing.` While many respondents acknowledged the historical benefits of the ROK-US alliance to Korea`s development in the areas of security, economy, and politics over the past 70 years, they expressed reserved outlooks on the current state and future progress of the alliance. Furthermore, the survey results revealed complex viewpoints regarding the role and scope of the alliance, South Korea`s contribution to it, and the extended deterrence provided by the United States.
- Topic:
- International Affairs, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Polls
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, North America, and United States of America
24. [Global NK Update] August 2023
- Author:
- Minah Kang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- 1) The recent developments in military cooperation between Russia and North Korea resulted in sanctions on entities that facilitated their arms deals. 2) The South Korea-U.S.-Japan Summit at Camp David laid a strong foundation for continuous and stable trilateral cooperation to address North Korean threats and bolster regional security. 3) North Korea’s second “satellite launch” has raised regional concerns and prompted trilateral action.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Weapons, Cooperation, Military, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Asia, and North Korea
25. Arabia Saudita ante una disyuntiva, ¿Occidente u Oriente?
- Author:
- Federico Franceschini
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- La reciente visita en diciembre de 2022 del presidente Xi Jinping a Riad ha sido motivo de intensos y preocupados análisis por parte de politólogos y analistas, que leyeron en la bienvenida otorgada al mandatario chino la culminación del alejamiento de Arabia Saudita de su alianza con Washington. Inmediatas fueron las comparaciones con el viaje en julio del presidente norteamericano Joe Biden. Los periodistas internacionales buscaron, analizando sonrisas y formas de saludos, encontrar diferencias de trato como elemento discriminante para un eventual favoritismo de una potencia sobre la otra.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
26. Visible Limits of the Sino-Russian Unlimited Partnership: Are Spheres of Influence Changing in Central Asia?
- Author:
- Eka Javakhishvili
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Russia’s protracted war in Ukraine is not only causing enormous militarypolitical and economic damage to the Kremlin, but it is also gradually eroding Moscow’s traditional spheres of influence. While the Kremlin has directed all its resources to wage the war in Ukraine, Russia’s “ally” China is not wasting time, and is seeking to increase its economic and political involvement with the countries of Central Asia. China’s recent moves reveal a crack in Beijing and Moscow’s “unlimited” friendship, as the leaders of China and Russia called the partnership between the two countries back in February 2022. A visible manifestation of China’s growing influence in the Central Asian region was the China-Central Asia Summit held in May, where the host of the event, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, presented the “Grand Development Plan” for Central Asia. Russia was not invited to attend the summit; therefore, the future cooperation plans between the regional countries were discussed without a Russian representative. The great development plan proposed by China covers the main aspects of cooperation - infrastructural development, strengthening of economic ties, and security challenges in the region. By proposing the mentioned plan, Xi Jinping expressed his willingness to give a new impetus to China’s cooperation with Central Asian countries, but without the official involvement of Moscow. Holding such a high-level summit in China indicates that Beijing is trying to conduct regional policy on its own, without its “ally” Russia, and, in certain areas, without even taking into account Russia’s interests. Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s influence on Central Asia and its role in the region is declining, and China has an ideal moment to fill the vacuum in the absence of Moscow. In addition, Beijing needs to develop its energy and transport land corridors to transport Chinese goods to Europe, for which China is ready to invest billions in Central Asia, and at the same time, to take the regional security initiative on itself. One of the main priorities of China’s foreign policy is to bring the resource-rich countries of Central Asia under its sphere of influence, which obviously means tightening Russia’s interests. It can be assumed that China is aiming to become the dominant political/ economic/military power in the region. Russia’s current military-economic difficulties caused by the war with Ukraine allow Beijing to offer regional countries more prosperity and security guarantees than Moscow can. So the following question arises - is the historically established influence of Russia in Central Asia weakening, while China is gradually strengthening its positioning in the region?
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
27. Georgia-EU Economic Relations Dynamics and Cooperation Opportunities
- Author:
- Davit Shatakishvili
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Rapprochement with the European Union in terms of legislation, trade, logistics, finance and economy, which should result in full-fledged integration, is a task of state importance for Georgia. Since Georgia gained independence, the European Union has been actively supporting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country, helping to improve the infrastructure, digital and investment environment, and has played a major role in strengthening state institutions and the civil sector. In June 2014, an Association Agreement was signed between Georgia and the European Union, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, which entered into force in July 2016. In March 2017, the visa-free travel regime for Georgian citizens in the Schengen area was launched. In the same year, the Constitution of Georgia was changed to reflect the unwavering will of the Georgian people to integrate into the European and Euro-Atlantic space. Over the decades, the economic relations between Georgia and the European Union have made significant progress. The trade turnover between the parties, investment volume, the export and import goods nomenclature, the number of incoming and outgoing tourists, the volume of remittances, the degree of integration into the common regional transport networks and others are dynamically increasing. For Georgia, a small and developing economy, keeping the European Union as a reliable and stable partner is a critically important task. In this article, we will analyze the existing trade-economic relations between the parties, and review such important sectors as: foreign trade, foreign direct investments, remittances, tourism and the foreign exchange market, as well as outline the opportunities and future perspectives of bilateral regional economic cooperation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Georgia
28. Iran-US Relations in Light of the Confrontation Between Their Special Services
- Author:
- Vasil Ghlonti
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- The dynamics of Iran-US relations in the last decade show that there are many ongoing challenges between them. What does Iran want and what is its attitude towards the USA? The political elite of Iran considers the USA to be its number one foreign threat, and seeks to expel it from the Middle East region in its entirety, and in this process, actively using the capabilities of its special services. Meanwhile, the USA considers Iran one of the main financiers of world terrorism and one of the main opponents to its state interests. The American goal is thus to neutralize the terrorist threat coming from Iran and to weaken it both in the region and abroad, and here also the American special services are actively involved. Against this background, there is both a secret and open war between Iran and the US special services, which has been gaining more and more scope in recent years. The purpose of our present work is to discuss and analyze the relations between the Iranian and US special services, and their role in the current political processes happening in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Confrontation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
29. The People-to-People Exchange Between China and Georgia in the Frames of the Belt and Road Initiative
- Author:
- Jing Shi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Since the launch of the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) in September 2013, the interaction between China and the post-Soviet Eurasian countries has become more dynamic than ever before. Considering the individuality among and differences between these countries (Sun, 2023), and the specific forms of cooperation, China has adopted unified but differentiated objectives and plans for collaboration with them. A key feature is that countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative receive preferential policies and conveniences within the cooperation framework. Meanwhile, bilateral cooperation is also being actively seen. The primary case study chosen to illustrate the progress and current status of people-to-people exchange in this paper is the relationship between China and Georgia. Georgia’s case serves as a representative example when examining cooperation and interaction within the BRI. The exploration of China’s BRI lays the groundwork for understanding the broader context of international collaboration. Within this expansive framework, the specific case study of China-Georgia relations provides a nuanced lens through which to examine the intricacies of people-to-people exchange and cooperation. Evaluating China-Georgia relations through traditional perspectives may risk overlooking the full reality. Firstly, Georgia actively participates in the BRI, demonstrating significant interest in collaboration with China for mutual benefits and profits (Gürcan, 2020). Secondly, due to its geographical distance from China compared to Central Asian states, the forms of interaction and connectivity between Georgia and China require efforts from both sides. This dynamic not only presents specific challenges for various forms of cooperation within the BRI framework, but also underscores the significance and value of this research. Thirdly, analyzing the China-Georgia interaction uniquely from the perspective of the BRI is necessary. When discussing China-Georgia relations, people-to-people exchange and cooperation in science, education, culture, and health represent the realization of mutual interests and understanding between the two countries (Shi, 2018).
- Topic:
- Development, Education, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China, Caucasus, Asia, and Georgia
30. UK-Finland defence cooperation in the 2020s: A successful partnership requires continuous effort
- Author:
- Antti Pihlajamaa
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The United Kingdom and Finland have conducted rather close defence cooperation in various forums for several years. Finnish NATO membership and the ongoing war in Ukraine also provide many incentives for deeper cooperation. Nevertheless, continued cooperation should not be taken for granted.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Defense Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Finland
31. A Forgotten Friendship: Serbo-Ukrainian Relations and Pro-Russian Narratives
- Author:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Abstract:
- The relations between the two countries from the moment Ukraine gained its independence, in 1991, to date can be marked as formally friendly relations. The peak of friendship and solidarity came with NATO’s bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999, which has remained one of the most traumatic episodes in Serbian contemporary history. During that episode, Ukrainian solidarity was demonstrated through Ukraine’s attempts to be an impartial mediator, its condemnation of the military intervention without the mandate of the UN Security Council, as well as through provided assistance. Today, that episode is easily forgotten in Serbia’s political discourse, especially by political leaders. Besides, although the relations between the two countries continue to be formally friendly, they are still burdened with stereotypes prevailing in Serbian society as a product of very stench pro-Russian narratives in the past few years, which have made Russia and its leadership very popular in Serbia. This popularity, along with the Serbian policy of balancing between the West and Russia, makes the relations between Serbia and Ukraine not hostile but relations charged with contradictions.
- Topic:
- NATO, History, Bilateral Relations, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Serbia
32. Druzhba via Hungary – The impact of the construction of a new oil pipeline on Serbia’s energy security
- Author:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Abstract:
- The relationship between Serbia and Hungary is very specific and is characterised by intensive cooperation, which is primarily the result of very good relations between Serbian President Vučić and Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán. The two countries already cooperate in the field of energy. Namely, Serbia uses Hungarian gas storage capacities, while Hungary receives its gas via Serbia Serbia receives all its oil, including that which is Russian, through the Adriatic pipeline (JANAF). As the oil is delivered to that pipeline through the port of Omišalj in Croatia, Serbia can no longer receive Russian oil via this route. At the beginning of October 2022, the EU adopted the 8th package of sanctions which, among other things, prohibits the maritime transport of crude oil and oil derivatives originating from Russia to third countries. Due to Serbia’s non-alignment with the EU, i.e. the fact that it did not introduce sanctions on Russia, the 8th package of sanctions does not envisage any derogation from the measures when it comes to the Western Balkans, although it was originally intended to enable the transit of Russian oil through JANAF (provided that the quality remains within the limits of earlier years). To analyse the potential consequences of the construction of a new oil pipeline to Hungary for the energy security of Serbia, it is necessary to look at the geopolitical circumstances in which this decision was made and to consider which alternative options are available to Serbia and how adequate and feasible they truly are.
- Topic:
- Oil, Bilateral Relations, Pipeline, and Energy Security
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Serbia, and Hungary
33. The South Korea-U.S. Summit and Measures to Enhance Bilateral Cooperation on North Korea
- Author:
- Jechun Kim
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Jechun Kim, a professor at Sogang University, points out that the Biden administration appears to prioritize competition with China, the Taiwan issue, and the Ukraine War, despite the growing threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities. In response, Kim underlines the importance of issuing a “2023 US-ROK Joint Statement on North Korea” after President Yoon’s visit to the White House. Given the fading interest and support for the reunification of the Korean Peninsula, Professor Kim emphasizes the significance of addressing the rapid advancement in DPRK’s nuclear capabilities. He then suggests that South Korea needs to create a conducive environment for peaceful reunification through strong support from the U.S. for the “Audacious Initiative.”
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
34. Pyongyang in Search of a New Cold War Strategy
- Author:
- Jihwan Hwang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Jihwan Hwang, a professor at the University of Seoul, predicts that the strengthening alliance between North Korea, China, and Russia could enable North Korea to overcome its international isolation, weakening the influence of the US-South Korea alliance and increasing China’s leverage over the Korean Peninsula. Dr. Hwang points out that even without the establishment of a new Cold War order, the strengthened cooperation among the authoritarian regimes will pose a significant strategic challenge to South Korea. As Seoul’s approach to Pyongyang has been based on a unipolar system led by Washington, Dr. Hwang highlights the need for South Korea to explore new approaches to address the changing security environment.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Ukraine, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
35. Turkey vis-à-vis Russia’s War against Ukraine
- Author:
- Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Characterising Turkey’s policy towards Russia’s war on Ukraine is not an easy task. Elements of both support for Ukraine and neutrality have emerged in the past year. An analysis of the fundamentals of Turkey–US relations and Russia–Turkey relations is thus helpful.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States of America
36. Italy’s Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Nona Mikhelidze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In line with the EU’s policy, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and current Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have taken a strong stance in response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine by firmly condemning the invasion and offering their full support for Kyiv’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy
37. Putin Is Doing Xi’s Dirty Work (and the West Is Helping Him)
- Author:
- William R. Spiegelberger
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic turn to China has been a disappointment for good reason: Beijing is more interested in advancing its own anti-Western interests than in helping Moscow. The more fruitful and natural partnership would be between Russia and the West, since both face a common threat from China and the infrastructure for mutual prosperity is already in place. The main impediment to improved Russian-Western relations is the continued rule of Putin, who is increasingly doing China’s bidding at Russia’s expense.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia
38. Hurricane Ian Highlights the Devastating Effects of the U.S. Blockade on Cuba
- Author:
- Mikael Wolfe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- As Cuba reels from the ongoing effects of Hurricane Ian, a Havana-based Cuban scholar explains how the U.S. blockade has hampered Cuba’s recovery from Hurricane Ian and fuels ongoing mass emigration.
- Topic:
- Migration, Natural Disasters, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Hurricane, and Blockade
- Political Geography:
- Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America
39. Chinese coercion, Australian resilience
- Author:
- Richard McGregor
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Australians have grown in confidence about the country’s ability to withstand economic coercion from China since the imposition of punitive trade measures in 2020. Beijing suspended high-level political exchanges and imposed a range of informal sanctions and trade blockages against Australia in the wake of a series of escalating disputes, culminating in Canberra’s call for an independent inquiry into the origins of Covid-19 in April that year. Two years on, it is prudent to plan on the basis that it is still early days in China’s use of trade measure against Australia. Canberra and Beijing resumed ministerial-level dialogue after the election of the Albanese Labor government in May 2022. But given the long-term structural divide between the United States and China, and Australia’s position as a strong US ally, Australian governments of all persuasions should assume that China’s trade policies against Australia will remain largely in place. Beijing may tactically retreat now and again to fill shortfalls or if it wants for political reasons to present itself as a conciliatory partner. But a solution to the fundamental bilateral political tensions driving trade disruptions is not on the horizon. The sectors in which bilateral trade with China have continued to prosper are not those in which Australian producers are dependent on China but rather where the two countries are interdependent. Australia cannot find alternative markets to match China for commodities such as iron ore, liquefied natural gas, and wool. Nor can China wean itself off a substantial reliance on Australia as a supplier. For this reason, the core elements of bilateral trade will remain reasonably resilient for some years. However, absent a huge change in the structure of the Australian economy and its export profile, the longer-term picture for exports to China looks worse. As China’s economy grows and its structure changes and becomes less resource intensive, Australia will likely get a decreasing share of a growing pie. Over time, the cost of trade bans and other punitive measures will likely mount as Chinese investment in Australia diminishes and the cost of diversifying from the region’s largest economy grows. Australia has maintained its reputation as a reliable supplier of commodities throughout the downturn in bilateral relations with China. It is imperative that it continue to do so — both to benefit the Australian economy and to maintain leverage of its own. Control over critical commodities carries considerable strategic value, as the role of gas and oil in the Ukraine war has shown.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Commodities, Trade, Resilience, and Coercion
- Political Geography:
- China and Australia
40. The Russia-Ukraine War and North Korea-Russia Relations
- Author:
- Seung-soo Hyun
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- What is the impact of the war in Ukraine on North Korea’s unprecedented military provocations? Seung-soo Hyun, a research fellow at Korea Institute for National Unification, points out that Moscow’s defense of Pyongyang at the UN Security Council has emboldened North Korea. However, considering the low economic compatibility between the two countries and tight international sanctions against Russia after it invaded Ukraine, the bilateral economic cooperation would hardly help Pyongyang to develop its economy. Dr. Hyun claims that conflicts between Northeast Asian countries show signs of polarization and highlights the importance of monitoring how the war in Ukraine will reshape global strategic dynamics among Russia, China, and the U.S.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Economic Cooperation, Denuclearization, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and North Korea
41. Foreign Policy Recharged after Defusing MAGA: Biden’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- Byoung Kwon Sohn
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Byoung Kwon Sohn, Professor at Chung-Ang University, predicts that the Biden administration will likely stick to its stance on foreign policy, with the Senate secure in Democratic hands and the inter-party House seat margin found to be smaller than expected. Encountering the recent escalation in North Korea, he claims that Washington will keep the Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral security cooperation in place and strengthen its commitment to extended deterrence to its two Asian allies. Professor Sohn also highlights that the United States will continue to pursue its current Indo-Pacific strategy to contain Chinese influence in the region whilst attempting to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Domestic Politics, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Indo-Pacific
42. Turning point? Putin, Xi, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Bobo Lo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Putin’s war in Ukraine has highlighted the resilience but also the limitations of Sino–Russian partnership. Far from being an “arc of autocracy”, this is an interests-based relationship between strategically autonomous powers. Foreign policy coordination between China and Russia is limited by their different views of global order. Beijing is invested in a stable international system, albeit one skewed in its favour, whereas Moscow thrives on disorder and uncertainty. Xi Jinping aims to preserve the Sino–Russian partnership while maintaining ties with the West. But Beijing’s balancing act will become harder to sustain as the war continues. The balance of power within the bilateral relationship has tilted sharply towards Beijing. Russia is more reliant on China than ever. The long-term outlook for the relationship is unpromising.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Conflict, and Vladimir Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Ukraine
43. A Saudi-Pakistani Reset: Business as Usual?
- Author:
- Joshua Albin Cheyaden
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- “Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are back on track,” declared ʿAli ʿAwadh ʿAsseri, a former Saudi ambassador to Pakistan, following Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s state visit to Riyadh in May 2021.[1] Khan’s visit ended a two-year diplomatic rift that had marred a close relationship spanning seven decades.[2] The Pakistani Prime Minister’s visit reopened vital channels of communication that had been shut for almost a year and signaled a “reset” in Saudi-Pakistani relations.[3] The rift between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia began in 2019 and peaked in 2020, while the year 2021 was marked by calls for a reset in their relations.[4] Saudi Arabia’s deepening ties with India remain at the heart of the Saudi-Pakistani split, and they are unlikely to change despite any presumptive diplomatic reset between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s increasing engagement with India as a key energy client is just one aspect of a broader transformation the Kingdom is experiencing under Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.[5] At the same time, Pakistan is in a deep economic crisis and is looking for foreign investment in major infrastructure projects to generate employment in the country.[6] In 2021, Pakistan declared its intention to pursue a foreign policy guided by its focus on economic security over its geopolitical interests.[7] Therefore, the long-term prospects for the Saudi-Pakistani reset depends on Pakistan’s ability to accept Saudi Arabia’s more even-handed India-Pakistan policy and the Saudis’ willingness to invest in an economic partnership with Pakistan.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, India, and Saudi Arabia
44. A Tale of Two Normalizations: Israeli Normalization with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – Part I
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The “Treaty of Peace, Diplomatic Relations and Full Normalization Between the United Arab Emirates and the State of Israel” was signed on September 15, 2020. On the same day, Bahrain and Israel signed their “Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations.” Since then, bilateral relations between the two states and Israel have progressed speedily, with many more issue-specific agreements signed and economic relations with the Emirates burgeoning. The Negev Conference on March 28, 2022, which was attended by the U.A.E., Bahrain, Egypt, and Morocco, as well as the United States, symbolized a maturing and coalescence of the regional normalization processes between Israel and conservative Arab states. This paper will address recent developments in the foreign policy of U.A.E. that impact the current status of relations with Israel, as well as recent developments in relations between the two states.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Abraham Accords
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and UAE
45. A Tale of Two Normalizations: Israeli Normalization with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain – Part II
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Bahrain and Israel signed their “Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations” on September 15, 2020; the “Treaty of Peace, Diplomatic Relations and Full Normalization Between the United Arab Emirates and the State of Israel” was signed on the same day. Since then, bilateral relations between the two states and Israel have rapidly progressed, with many more issue-specific agreements signed. The Negev Summit on March 28, 2022, which was attended by Bahrain, U.A.E., Egypt, and Morocco, as well as the United States, symbolized a maturing and coalescence of the regional normalization processes between Israel and conservative Arab states. A follow-up to the Negev Summit took place in Manama on June 27, 2022 and the steering committee, which was chaired by Bahraini Undersecretary for Political Affairs Sheikh Abdullah bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, formed working groups on security, health, education, tourism, food and water security, and energy.[1] A previous paper addressed recent developments in the foreign policy of U.A.E. which impact on the current status of relations with Israel, as well as recent developments in the two states’ bilateral relations. This paper will look at the context and content of relations between Israel and Bahrain, and analyze the overall state of normalization in the region at this stage.[2]
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Abraham Accords
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations
46. Military cooperation between Serbia and the USA: dynamically under the public radar
- Author:
- Marija Ignjatijevic
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Abstract:
- Military cooperation between Serbia and the United States is the topic of the latest analysis by BCBP researcher Maria Ignjatijevic. Serbia and the United States have had intensive cooperation in the field of security and defense for years, members of the armed forces have participated in over 70 military exercises in the last ten years, and the United States is one of the largest donors to the Serbian defense system. However, if we follow only media reports in Serbia, the intensity of this cooperation will not be so obvious. Defense cooperation with Russia gets far more space in the media than activities with the US and NATO members. Thus, for example, the military exercise “Slavic Shield” completely occupied the public’s attention before and after its organisation in October 2019. Although undeniably a significant activity between the two armed forces, to which Russia brought its S-400 and Pantsir systems, it gained a disproportionately large space in the media compared to other exercises that took place that year with other partner countries. Apart from the image being sent to the public through media and various foreign policy moves, a very dynamic and practical defense cooperation with all partners takes place behind the scenes. The United States is one of Serbia’s important partners in the field of defense, and cooperation with the US Department of Defense has been achieved in various fields. Every year, Serbia and the US conduct about 100 different bilateral activities. In the eyes of the Serbian public, perception of relations with the United States, and especially perception of military cooperation, is burdened by the NATO intervention in 1999. In order to avoid losing political points at home and endangering relations with Russia, the political elite in Serbia avoids talking about cooperation with the United States and other NATO members, and the pro-regime media report accordingly. Regardless of the fact that military cooperation is often used as a foreign or domestic policy tool, it is important to discuss the practical aspects of this cooperation, benefits for Serbia and the US, their defense systems, but also the citizens. At the online discussion “Serbia and the USA: Together we are safer”, specific examples of military cooperation between Serbia and the US and practical benefits for our defense system and its members from this cooperation were discussed. Defense cooperation between Serbia and the United States takes place on several levels, through joint exercises, cooperation with the Ohio National Guard, a student exchange program, as well as donations.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Serbia, North America, and United States of America
47. Divisions on US-China Policy: Opinion Leaders and the Public
- Author:
- Craig Kafura, Dina Smeltz, Joshua W. Busby, Joshua D. Kertzer, and Jonathan Monten
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- Craig Kafura, Dina Smeltz, Joshua Busby, Joshua D. Kertzer, Jonathan Monten, and Jordan Tama analyze recent surveys of foreign policy professionals and the American public on the degree of threat posed by China and how the United States should respond. As President Joseph Biden returns to the White House, this time to sit behind the Resolute desk, perhaps no foreign policy question looms larger than that of US-China relations. The results of the 2020 Chicago Council Survey and the 2020 Chicago Council on Global Affairs-University of Texas at Austin survey of foreign policy professionals and the American public find there are significant partisan differences among leaders and the public on the degree of threat posed by China and how the United States should respond. When it comes to defending Taiwan, however, the divisions are not between partisans but between the public and opinion leaders, with the public in opposition and leaders in support of an American defense of Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- China, East Asia, North America, and United States of America
48. Russians See Greater Reward than Risk in Closer Relations with China
- Author:
- Dina Smeltz, Brendan Helm, Denis Volkov, and Stepan Goncharov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- As Russia and China grow closer through economic ties, a joint Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Levada Analytical Center survey finds that the Russian public sees little downside to the growing bilateral relationship. With China and Russia on the outs with the United States, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have broadened bilateral economic and military cooperation over the last few years. Recent cooperation has included energy and infrastructure projects, and even a little bit of panda diplomacy. While some observers warn about the potential risk that Russia may grow too dependent on Beijing, a joint Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Levada Analytical Center survey finds that the Russian public sees little downside to the growing bilateral relationship.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Asia
49. The U.S. and Hungary: Friends in Need of a Better Way
- Author:
- Jon Greenwald
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council on International Policy (CIP)
- Abstract:
- When the Wall fell in 1989, I was the U.S. Embassy political counselor in East Berlin. We immediately realized something new would replace the Cold War, but one of my few certainties was that if Moscow released its grip on the Warsaw Pact, Hungary – Eastern Europe’s freest and most economically diverse society — would be quickest to integrate smoothly into Western Europe. President George H.W. Bush’s goal of a “Europe whole and free” has come closer, but we are not there yet, and Hungary, where I held a similar position earlier, has lagged. Respected observers Freedom House and Transparency International chart a course that puts it dangerously close to, even within, the autocratic zone. Worse, it champions a nationalist populism and “illiberal democracy” directly challenging key principles to which the European Union (EU) of which it is a member and the U.S., its ally in NATO, subscribe. What should be done?
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Nationalism, Bilateral Relations, and Populism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Hungary, North America, and United States of America
50. Five Insights into the ‘Comfort Women’ Protest Movement in South Korea: 2018-2020
- Author:
- Jihyeon Won and Josh Satre
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Protesters have been gathering in front of the former Japanese Embassy in Seoul, South Korea every Wednesday since January 1992. They call on the Japanese government to officially apologize to Korean victims who were coerced to render sexual services to Japanese military personnel before and during World War II (The Korean Council, 2021). The surviving victims and their supporters advocate for a just resolution to the sexual violence against ‘comfort women’ — those women forced to provide sexual services to Japanese officers and soldiers (Asian Women’s Fund, 2021). As one of the longest-running protest movements in South Korea, the ongoing demonstration movement has gathered broader support over time; has expanded geographically; and, despite obstacles, has continued to be a barometer for Japan-South Korea relations. This report examines five key elements of these demonstrations between January 2018 and December 2020, including the leading role of the Korean Council, the other main actors involved in the movement, the geographic spread of the demonstrations, increased counter-protests, and rising anti-Japan sentiment. As the issue of ‘comfort women’ remains unresolved despite nearly three decades of demonstrations, the movement is likely to persist due to broad support across Korean society, resilience in the face of counter-protest movements, and tense relations between Japan and South Korea.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Social Movement, Protests, and Comfort Women
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and Korea