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501. Un año después...

Author:
Lila Roldán Vázquez
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
Este artículo pretende inducir una reflexión sobre las consecuencias de la guerra de Rusia en Ucrania, que ya dura nueve años, particularmente después de la invasión total el 24 de febrero de 2022, y su impacto en el escenario geopolítico internacional.
Topic:
Security, War, Sanctions, Global South, Alliance, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

502. Visible Limits of the Sino-Russian Unlimited Partnership: Are Spheres of Influence Changing in Central Asia?

Author:
Eka Javakhishvili
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Russia’s protracted war in Ukraine is not only causing enormous militarypolitical and economic damage to the Kremlin, but it is also gradually eroding Moscow’s traditional spheres of influence. While the Kremlin has directed all its resources to wage the war in Ukraine, Russia’s “ally” China is not wasting time, and is seeking to increase its economic and political involvement with the countries of Central Asia. China’s recent moves reveal a crack in Beijing and Moscow’s “unlimited” friendship, as the leaders of China and Russia called the partnership between the two countries back in February 2022. A visible manifestation of China’s growing influence in the Central Asian region was the China-Central Asia Summit held in May, where the host of the event, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, presented the “Grand Development Plan” for Central Asia. Russia was not invited to attend the summit; therefore, the future cooperation plans between the regional countries were discussed without a Russian representative. The great development plan proposed by China covers the main aspects of cooperation - infrastructural development, strengthening of economic ties, and security challenges in the region. By proposing the mentioned plan, Xi Jinping expressed his willingness to give a new impetus to China’s cooperation with Central Asian countries, but without the official involvement of Moscow. Holding such a high-level summit in China indicates that Beijing is trying to conduct regional policy on its own, without its “ally” Russia, and, in certain areas, without even taking into account Russia’s interests. Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s influence on Central Asia and its role in the region is declining, and China has an ideal moment to fill the vacuum in the absence of Moscow. In addition, Beijing needs to develop its energy and transport land corridors to transport Chinese goods to Europe, for which China is ready to invest billions in Central Asia, and at the same time, to take the regional security initiative on itself. One of the main priorities of China’s foreign policy is to bring the resource-rich countries of Central Asia under its sphere of influence, which obviously means tightening Russia’s interests. It can be assumed that China is aiming to become the dominant political/ economic/military power in the region. Russia’s current military-economic difficulties caused by the war with Ukraine allow Beijing to offer regional countries more prosperity and security guarantees than Moscow can. So the following question arises - is the historically established influence of Russia in Central Asia weakening, while China is gradually strengthening its positioning in the region?
Topic:
International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

503. Georgia-EU Economic Relations Dynamics and Cooperation Opportunities

Author:
Davit Shatakishvili
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Rapprochement with the European Union in terms of legislation, trade, logistics, finance and economy, which should result in full-fledged integration, is a task of state importance for Georgia. Since Georgia gained independence, the European Union has been actively supporting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country, helping to improve the infrastructure, digital and investment environment, and has played a major role in strengthening state institutions and the civil sector. In June 2014, an Association Agreement was signed between Georgia and the European Union, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, which entered into force in July 2016. In March 2017, the visa-free travel regime for Georgian citizens in the Schengen area was launched. In the same year, the Constitution of Georgia was changed to reflect the unwavering will of the Georgian people to integrate into the European and Euro-Atlantic space. Over the decades, the economic relations between Georgia and the European Union have made significant progress. The trade turnover between the parties, investment volume, the export and import goods nomenclature, the number of incoming and outgoing tourists, the volume of remittances, the degree of integration into the common regional transport networks and others are dynamically increasing. For Georgia, a small and developing economy, keeping the European Union as a reliable and stable partner is a critically important task. In this article, we will analyze the existing trade-economic relations between the parties, and review such important sectors as: foreign trade, foreign direct investments, remittances, tourism and the foreign exchange market, as well as outline the opportunities and future perspectives of bilateral regional economic cooperation.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Georgia

504. Analyzing Mass Demonstration and Counter-Demonstration in 21st Century Georgia

Author:
Theo Schenck
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In March 2023, Georgians took to the streets of Tbilisi to protest the bill “Law On Transparency of Foreign Influence.”1 This is not the first mass protest in the capital of a country that has already seen large-scale demonstrations in the more than 30 years since its independence, perhaps most notably in the 2003 Rose Revolution. In many cases, protest has produced real results and fulfilled the protesters’ demands. The goal of this article is to analyze the why and the how of Georgian mass demonstrations. It will seek to discuss and ultimately answer the question: “What patterns can be seen throughout events of large-scale demonstrations in Georgia’s recent history, and what lessons can be drawn from them?” In doing so, it will be necessary to differentiate between dividing forces and interests in Georgian society. Specifically, the opposing interests of liberal and nativist2 will need to be addressed. For the purposes of this article, “liberal” protests are associated with anti-authoritarian and pro-Western demonstrations, and “nativist” protests are associated with groups espousing illiberal, nationalistic ideologies and tend to demonstrate against what they view as Western influences on Georgia.
Topic:
Protests, Liberalism, Nativism, Demonstrations, and Activism
Political Geography:
Caucasus and Georgia

505. Relations and Confrontations Between the Iranian and Israeli Special Services

Author:
Vasil Ghlonti
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In the last ten years, relations between Iran and Israel have become increasingly tense. The Islamic regime of Iran has declared Israel an enemy of the Shiite Islamic world, and has stated its intention to destroy it, while Israel has identified Iran, which actively finances its opponent Palestinian and Lebanese terrorist organizations, as its number one opponent and the main challenge to its statehood. What does Iran want? One of the main goals of its foreign policy is the destruction of the state of Israel and the expulsion of its ally, the USA, from the Middle East region. Iranian special services have a great role to play in this endeavor. What does Israel want? To neutralise the military and terrorist threat from Iran and put a stop to its nuclear program, with the Israeli special services actively engaged in fulfilling these objectives. The conflict between the parties that started in the Middle East has gone on to gain a global character. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of the confrontation between the special services of these two influential countries in the Middle East over the last ten years.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Confrontation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

506. The End of the Karabakh Conflict: Winners, Losers and New Expectations

Author:
Shota Utiashvili, Alex Petriashvili, Zurab Batiashvili, and Kakha Gogolashvili
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
In this publication, which includes four expert opinion papers, Rondeli Foundation fellows Shota Utiashvili, Alex Petriashvili, Zurab Batiashvili, and Kakha Gogolashvili analyze the geopolitical consequences of the end of the Karabakh conflict as well as the positions and expectations of two South Caucasian countries and several external actors.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

507. How Chinese Propaganda Works

Author:
Grigol Julukhidze
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
China is becoming an ever more powerful player in the international political arena. Once a regional power, it now represents the main rival to US global dominance. Over the last few years, Beijing has actively started to apply “propagandistic methods” in order to increase its importance and demonize actual or potential foes. From this point of view, the visibility of the Chinese propaganda model is not as high in Georgia as, for example, the Russian. The main task of the below-presented expert opinion is to illustrate and analyze one of the most powerful machines of disinformation in the world and answer the question, “How does Chinese propaganda work?”
Topic:
Propaganda, Disinformation, and International Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, and Georgia

508. Iran-US Relations in Light of the Confrontation Between Their Special Services

Author:
Vasil Ghlonti
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The dynamics of Iran-US relations in the last decade show that there are many ongoing challenges between them. What does Iran want and what is its attitude towards the USA? The political elite of Iran considers the USA to be its number one foreign threat, and seeks to expel it from the Middle East region in its entirety, and in this process, actively using the capabilities of its special services. Meanwhile, the USA considers Iran one of the main financiers of world terrorism and one of the main opponents to its state interests. The American goal is thus to neutralize the terrorist threat coming from Iran and to weaken it both in the region and abroad, and here also the American special services are actively involved. Against this background, there is both a secret and open war between Iran and the US special services, which has been gaining more and more scope in recent years. The purpose of our present work is to discuss and analyze the relations between the Iranian and US special services, and their role in the current political processes happening in the Middle East.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Confrontation
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

509. Sporadic Crises in Europe in the Support for Ukraine: Why the West Should Keep to its Primary Path

Author:
Nino Chanadiri
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, there has been ongoing discussion about whether or not the collective West is getting tired of supporting Ukraine. Despite the fact that, overall, the West continues to express support by providing assistance, and Washington and Brussels1 repeatedly state that continued assistance is crucial to keep Ukraine fighting for its independence, there are still periodic attempts by some actors within the European Union to suggest peace treaties that might lead to a ceasefire as soon as possible. For example, in spring 2022, Italy presented a 4-point peace plan that concentrated on demilitarizing the front lines; declaring Ukraine a neutral country, with some unidentified states guaranteeing its security; having an agreement between Russia and Ukraine about the status of Crimea and Donbas that would give those parts of Ukraine full autonomy in every sphere but officially would leave them parts of Ukraine; and having a multilateral agreement signed between Russia, Ukraine and the EU about the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the removal of the sanctions.2 However, the plan never saw success because it left space for legitimate concerns associated with Russia not fulfilling its responsibilities and continuing its aggressive policy both against Ukraine and against other neighbors. Italy has had opposition from various political groups to the sending of arms to Ukraine, and Prime Minister Meloni, who has generally been supportive towards Ukraine, has been voicing concerns about “fatigue… from all sides”.3
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Crisis Management, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

510. The People-to-People Exchange Between China and Georgia in the Frames of the Belt and Road Initiative

Author:
Jing Shi
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Since the launch of the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) in September 2013, the interaction between China and the post-Soviet Eurasian countries has become more dynamic than ever before. Considering the individuality among and differences between these countries (Sun, 2023), and the specific forms of cooperation, China has adopted unified but differentiated objectives and plans for collaboration with them. A key feature is that countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative receive preferential policies and conveniences within the cooperation framework. Meanwhile, bilateral cooperation is also being actively seen. The primary case study chosen to illustrate the progress and current status of people-to-people exchange in this paper is the relationship between China and Georgia. Georgia’s case serves as a representative example when examining cooperation and interaction within the BRI. The exploration of China’s BRI lays the groundwork for understanding the broader context of international collaboration. Within this expansive framework, the specific case study of China-Georgia relations provides a nuanced lens through which to examine the intricacies of people-to-people exchange and cooperation. Evaluating China-Georgia relations through traditional perspectives may risk overlooking the full reality. Firstly, Georgia actively participates in the BRI, demonstrating significant interest in collaboration with China for mutual benefits and profits (Gürcan, 2020). Secondly, due to its geographical distance from China compared to Central Asian states, the forms of interaction and connectivity between Georgia and China require efforts from both sides. This dynamic not only presents specific challenges for various forms of cooperation within the BRI framework, but also underscores the significance and value of this research. Thirdly, analyzing the China-Georgia interaction uniquely from the perspective of the BRI is necessary. When discussing China-Georgia relations, people-to-people exchange and cooperation in science, education, culture, and health represent the realization of mutual interests and understanding between the two countries (Shi, 2018).
Topic:
Development, Education, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Caucasus, Asia, and Georgia

511. The Key Player in Russia’s Cybersphere: What the West Needs to Know about VK Company

Author:
Philipp Dietrich
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the rise of VK Company and the creation of its super app to increase state surveillance and the dissemination of propaganda in Russia. The app is on its way to combining social networking and services related to healthcare, education, and e-government under one roof. Western policymakers need to be aware of why and how the Russian state is pushing its citizens to use such domestic services. Only then can they counter the use of data generated by such services in facilitating the state supervision and control of society.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Social Media, Surveillance, Cyberspace, and VK Company
Political Geography:
Russia

512. The Sources of China’s Innovativeness: Why China’s “Unstoppable” Innovation Powerhouse Might Falter

Author:
Tim Rühlig
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Western governments appear to fear that China is an ­innovation power­house on an almost unstoppable path to dominating ­future technologies. This is quite a turnaround. Only a few years ago, Western policies were crafted on the assumption that China was a copycat incapable of innovation. A focus on Intellectual Property theft as the Chinese “sin” that drove China’s technological development led many in the West to miss what I have identified as the “Five Virtues” that have made China the innovation powerhouse it is today. China’s future success is not ­in­evitable, however, but dependent on a delicate policy ecosystem.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Innovation, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

513. Preparing for a Longer War: Is a Ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia possible by 2024?

Author:
Stefan Meister, András Rácz, and Judith Heckenthaler
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine has failed and is now a protracted war of attrition. Russia has adapted to this situation and prepared for a longer war. The legitimization of the Putin system is increasingly built around the war. As long as Ukraine has no security guarantees, a ceasefire is not realistic from either side. Therefore, the focus should be on protecting the territory Ukraine controls and defining together with the Western partners how security can be provided and what victory means.
Topic:
Security, Vladimir Putin, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

514. Israel Is Doing Exactly What Hamas Wants It to Do

Author:
Sarah Cliffe and Hanny Megally
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
The conflict between Hamas and Israel is a tragedy in a world already rife with too many crises. Hamas’s massive attack on Israel, predominantly targeting families and children, cannot be justified by the prolonged history of Israel’s occupation of Palestine, no matter how brutal and indifferent the approach to the fate of Palestinians may have been. Just yesterday, a hospital in the north of the Gaza Strip was bombed, causing the loss of hundreds of lives. The ongoing blame game between the two parties further illustrates the deepening hostilities, no matter who is ultimately found to be responsible. In carrying out this attack, Hamas never believed it would overthrow the Israeli state by military force. Rather, it has followed a well-worn playbook of terrorist organizations that aim to provoke excessive retaliation by military and state forces, fostering further grievances and creating a broader base of civil resistance and strife. This basic strategy has been followed by terrorist groups as diverse as the Red Army Faction, Irgun and the Stern Group, and Al-Qaeda. The State of Israel is now, unfortunately, following this playbook, responding with lethal actions in the Gaza Strip. The degree of shock and outrage in Israeli society cannot be overestimated—the more than 1,400 dead are, in proportion to Israel’s size, the equivalent of more than 45,000 dead in the United States. Yet, its response is disproportionate and knowingly breaches international humanitarian law. Israel has demanded that one million Palestinians evacuate their homes and has cut off energy, food supplies, medical supplies, and water to the Gaza Strip. In this piece, Sarah Cliffe and Hanny Megally discuss what should the international community do to prevent an irreversible downward spiral in both societies, in the conflict between them, and in the spillover to the rest of the world?
Topic:
Hamas, Armed Conflict, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

515. UK-Finland defence cooperation in the 2020s: A successful partnership requires continuous effort

Author:
Antti Pihlajamaa
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The United Kingdom and Finland have conducted rather close defence cooperation in various forums for several years. Finnish NATO membership and the ongoing war in Ukraine also provide many incentives for deeper cooperation. Nevertheless, continued cooperation should not be taken for granted.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Finland

516. Mapping Cyber-related Missile and Satellite Incidents and Confidence-building Measures

Author:
Lora Saalman, Larisa Saveleva Dovgal, and Fei Su
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Cyber incidents that—whether due to human error, system malfunction or intentional targeting—impact satellite and missile systems extend beyond the ongoing war in Ukraine. These systems are essential to civilian and military operations and disrupting them has the potential to elicit conventional or even nuclear retaliation. Due to the centrality of satellite and missile-related infrastructure, cyber incidents impacting the functionality of such infrastructure have served as a catalyst for previous confidence-building measures (CBMs) that may provide a template for future ones. This paper builds on SIPRI work to map cyber-related missile and satellite incidents, as well as unilateral, bilateral and multilateral CBMs to provide takeaways meant to foster greater predictability and stability in cyberspace.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Weapons, Cyberspace, Confidence Building Measures, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Global Focus

517. Another Budget for a Country at War: Military Expenditure in Russia’s Federal Budget for 2024 and Beyond

Author:
Julian Cooper
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Russia’s war against Ukraine has been waged for over 650 days and has had a significant impact on the country’s economy and society. In April 2023 work started on a new three-year federal budget, which was signed into law at the end of November. It is based on a relatively optimistic economic forecast and is striking for the sharp increase in military spending planned for 2024. Spending under the budget chapter ‘national defence’ is expected to account for 29 per cent of total budget expenditure. This means that total military expenditure will increase to 7.1 per cent of GDP in 2024. Military spending is not the same as spending on the war: there are additional costs, some shown in the new budget. The budget indicates that the Russian government is firmly committed to pursuing the war to a successful conclusion, accepting that this will put pressure on social and economic spending.
Topic:
Budget, Military Spending, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

518. Privilege, Economy and State in Old Regime France: An Interview with Lewis Wade

Author:
Tehreem Husain and Lewis Wade
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:
Dr. Lewis Wade’s new book Privilege, Economy and State in Old Regime France: Marine Insurance, War and the Atlantic Empire under Louis XIV (Boydell and Brewer, 2023) closely analyses the rise and fall of Louis XIV's marine insurance institutions in Paris, which were central to the French monarchy's efforts to stimulate commerce, colonial enterprise and economic growth. The book discusses two leading ministers, Jean-Baptiste Colbert and his son, the Marquis de Seignelay who both recognised that marine insurance was crucial for protecting commercial investment in French maritime endeavours. While Colbert looked to private enterprise to lure capital away from passive investments in state debt towards the marine insurance industry. Seignelay, by contrast, leveraged the tools of privilege on which the French economy was built by creating the first chartered company in the history of marine insurance. The book discusses in detail the overarching system of risk management that lay at the heart of absolutism itself. I was delighted to interview Dr. Wade to dig deeper into his book.
Topic:
History, Economy, Economic Growth, State, Interview, and Capital
Political Geography:
Europe and France

519. Saudi-Houthi Talks Resume - The Yemen Review, August 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The strategic city of Marib saw an increase in fighting on several fronts. The Houthis have been reinforcing their positions in the area, which they attempted to seize in a massive and costly offensive two years ago. Should negotiations break down, Marib is seen as a likely area of renewed contestation due to its oil and gas resources. A new counterterrorist campaign was launched in Abyan to target Al-Qaeda forces in the governorate. Named ‘Swords of Haws’, the operation is being conducted by an array of STC and pro-government forces. The campaign reported it had succeeded in securing the Rafd and Jenin Valleys, but had faced strong resistance from Al-Qaeda forces in Mudiya district. Frontline fighting on the border of Al-Bayda and Lahj rose significantly in August, including a particularly large Houthi assault on STC positions on August 26-27 that resulted in dozens of casualties. Two Doctors Without Borders employees were kidnapped by unidentified gunmen in Marib as they traveled from Seyoun. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the incident. An officer investigating last month’s killing of World Food Programme Moayad Hameidi was assassinated. The officer, a member of the Taiz Political Security department, had received death threats and demanded he halt the investigation. Five UN employees were released on August 11, after being held captive by Al-Qaeda for more than 18 months. The group was reportedly released after lengthy Omani mediation and the payment of a ransom, though the UN has disputed these claims. Houthi forces continue to besiege villages of the Bani Nawf tribe in Al-Jawf following the killing of a prominent local Houthi commander. A number of tribes have responded by calling for united action, others have sided with the Houthis.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Counter-terrorism, Economy, Houthis, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

520. Houthis Target Israel Amid Gaza Conflict - The Yemen Review, September and October 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Houthi group (Ansar Allah) claimed responsibility for a series of attempted missile and drone strikes on Israel. The Houthis have threatened to keep up the attacks as long as the Israeli military operation in Gaza continues. Four projectiles were intercepted by a US warship in the Red Sea, where the group has expanded its operations, and it could threaten shipping in the area in the future. Hamas’ deadly incursion into Israel and the subsequent conflict has fueled fears of a broader conflagration across the Arab world, potentially drawing in Iran and the US. While this still appears unlikely, the Houthis’ involvement could yet provoke retaliatory strikes from Israel or the US. The conflict is also proving a boon for recruitment for Al-Qaeda in Yemen. The Houthis staged a massive military parade on September 21 to celebrate the anniversary of their seizure of the capital in 2014. They then cracked down heavily on September 26 revolution celebrations, which mark the end of the Imamate and the beginning of republican rule. Thousands were reportedly arrested and detained, and a number of people were beaten for participation, as the event now carries symbolic importance as resistance against Houthi rule. Yemen has also seen nationwide demonstrations in support of the Palestinians over the course of October. Two border incidents marked a rare resumption of violence between the Houthis and foreign members of the Saudi coalition. Five Bahraini soldiers were killed following a Houthi drone strike along the border on September 25, and four Saudi soldiers were killed in a raid one month later. There has been speculation that the incidents reflect internal dissent over progressing Saudi-Houthi peace talks. Heavy fighting in Al-Dhalea has killed scores of fighters on both sides, though the frontlines have moved little. The renewed violence has been accompanied by the assassination and attempted assassination of local military leaders.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, Houthis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia

521. The Red Sea Front - The Yemen Review, November and December 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Houthi military action in the Red Sea escalated dramatically during November and December, as the group announced the creation of a ‘third front’ against Israel in retaliation for its war in Gaza and military operations along the Lebanese border. Isolated attacks in October, nominally undertaken in solidarity with the besieged residents of Gaza, have mutated into a sustained campaign, with Houthi leaders now threatening to enforce a blockade of all ships headed to Israel through the area. Dozens of missile and drone strikes against maritime traffic have pushed the major shipping and oil companies to reroute their vessels. The attacks have been a public relations coup for the Houthis, who filmed the dramatic hijacking of the cargo ship Galaxy Leader, and have painted themselves as defenders of the Palestinian people. Regional powers have been hesitant to condemn the attacks, which were occurring near daily as of mid-December. The response from the US and other Western powers has been cautious. The US has sent additional warships to the region, and the Pentagon announced the formation of an international task force to protect shipping, though the scope of coordination is not yet clear. Mindful of the popularity of the Houthis’ stance, regional states have refused to officially join the response, with the sole exception of Bahrain. But the task force is unlikely to be the final word in the response. The US, Israel, or other Western nations may still launch strikes if Houthi operations continue unabated. At present they show no signs of stopping, and the group continues to work to improve its maritime power projection. The Houthis have also continued to press on other fronts, launching an attack on Marib in early November. The operation was reportedly the largest in months, and the group has continued to send reinforcements and fortify its positions in the area. Its long-held interest in the governorate’s strategic oil fields does not appear to have abated. The Houthis have also intensified military action in southern Hudaydah, perhaps looking to extend their maritime reach toward the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. A Saudi-Houthi deal, which seemed imminent through much of November, now appears to be on hold. The scale and brazenness of Houthi attacks have given US and Saudi officials pause, even if they still wish for a settlement to be completed. With further military action likely, and the scale of the international response not yet clear, the Houthis’ position vis-à-vis the peace process and the internationally recognized government is now less certain. Should they or the Saudis abandon peace talks, Yemen could face renewed military contestation between the Houthis and their opponents. For its part, the UN Special Envoy’s office announced its continued support for the process. The declining prospects of a deal, which reportedly promised massive Saudi financial relief in the form of public sector salary payments, has further imperiled the cash-strapped internationally recognized government. Saudi assistance promised to the government in August has not arrived, and the Houthis’ Red Sea attacks have dramatically increased already high shipping costs, which are passed on to consumers. The country is particularly vulnerable to such fluctuations as it relies almost entirely on imported foodstuffs, and the economic harm from Houthi operations will be felt most intensely in Yemen. Nearing bankruptcy, the government may no longer be able to pay salaries in the new year. It has already suspended FX auctions to finance basic commodity imports, and with its hard currency reserves exhausted, the value of the new rial has been falling since October. The government’s options to raise revenues are limited. A proposal to sell discounted oil to an Emirati company drew intense backlash, though it is unclear what other avenues are available. The government’s insolvency is perhaps most visible in its inability to provide electricity to the interim capital of Aden. The UAE sent an emergency fuel shipment in November to keep power plants running as an interim measure, but a long-term solution remains elusive.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Houthis, Shipping, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Red Sea

522. Pandemic Management: Lessons Learned For a Safer Future

Author:
Srdan Hercigonja and Gorana Pebić
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
What are the most dominant post-pandemic conclusions, and what do the latest research results on pandemic management in Serbia and the Western Balkans show? Read all about it in the newest analysis made by BCBP. The analysis concludes that the main feature of the pandemic management in Serbia is the dominance of politics and the political interests of the powerholders over expertise. Although there were moments when expertise and containing the spread of the virus were the primary goals of the management (particularly at the very beginning), the major decisions were made based on expected political consequences. This approach towards the administration is also evident in the way in which the government and state officials communicated about the pandemic and what measures were being adopted: from a spread of panic and imposing some of the most rigorous restrictions in Europe to complete silence from officials about the pandemic situation and lifting all measures. The second main characteristic of the pandemic management is non-transparency, of course of actions in various fields: giving false statements about the numbers of infected and deceased people from COVID-19, non-transparent procurement of medical equipment and vaccines, disclosed agreements with third countries and private companies. The pandemic management should have included experts from different areas, such as communicology and psychology, while organizational aspects of the management should have included plans for other vulnerable groups and patients who were totally neglected throughout the course of the pandemic. This analysis report was made possible with support from the Rockefeller Brothers Fund (RBF). The opinions and views of the authors do not necessarily state or reflect those of the RBF.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Transparency, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, and Western Balkans

523. A Forgotten Friendship: Serbo-Ukrainian Relations and Pro-Russian Narratives

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The relations between the two countries from the moment Ukraine gained its independence, in 1991, to date can be marked as formally friendly relations. The peak of friendship and solidarity came with NATO’s bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999, which has remained one of the most traumatic episodes in Serbian contemporary history. During that episode, Ukrainian solidarity was demonstrated through Ukraine’s attempts to be an impartial mediator, its condemnation of the military intervention without the mandate of the UN Security Council, as well as through provided assistance. Today, that episode is easily forgotten in Serbia’s political discourse, especially by political leaders. Besides, although the relations between the two countries continue to be formally friendly, they are still burdened with stereotypes prevailing in Serbian society as a product of very stench pro-Russian narratives in the past few years, which have made Russia and its leadership very popular in Serbia. This popularity, along with the Serbian policy of balancing between the West and Russia, makes the relations between Serbia and Ukraine not hostile but relations charged with contradictions.
Topic:
NATO, History, Bilateral Relations, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Serbia

524. Citizen-Oriented Policing: Effective Fight Against Serious and Organised Crime

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
On 24-25 February 2023, in cooperation with partner organisations, the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) organised a citizens’ assembly in Vrnjačka Banja. The topic of the assembly was how the police could better respond to the needs of citizens in the area of fighting serious and organised crime, while the immediate reason was the ongoing debate on the Draft Law on Internal Affairs. On this occasion, 36 citizens from all over Serbia were selected to discuss two topics from statutory solutions that have proven to be significant during the public debate. The first topic concerned biometric surveillance, i.e. the new powers of the police in the field of biometric data processing granted thereto in the new Draft Law, while the second related to police management, or, more precisely, to the relationship between the Minister of Internal Affairs, the Director of Police and the Public Prosecutor’s Office. The debate was structured in line with the best practice and, for the first time in the short history of the application of the citizens’ assembly as a model in Serbia, including the presence of decision-makers. Namely, the final plenary debate was attended by three representatives of the Ministry of the Interior who are members of the Working Group charged with drafting the relevant Law, two opposition MPs, one representative of the opposition political party and a public prosecutor.
Topic:
Surveillance, Police, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

525. Druzhba via Hungary – The impact of the construction of a new oil pipeline on Serbia’s energy security

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The relationship between Serbia and Hungary is very specific and is characterised by intensive cooperation, which is primarily the result of very good relations between Serbian President Vučić and Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán. The two countries already cooperate in the field of energy. Namely, Serbia uses Hungarian gas storage capacities, while Hungary receives its gas via Serbia Serbia receives all its oil, including that which is Russian, through the Adriatic pipeline (JANAF). As the oil is delivered to that pipeline through the port of Omišalj in Croatia, Serbia can no longer receive Russian oil via this route. At the beginning of October 2022, the EU adopted the 8th package of sanctions which, among other things, prohibits the maritime transport of crude oil and oil derivatives originating from Russia to third countries. Due to Serbia’s non-alignment with the EU, i.e. the fact that it did not introduce sanctions on Russia, the 8th package of sanctions does not envisage any derogation from the measures when it comes to the Western Balkans, although it was originally intended to enable the transit of Russian oil through JANAF (provided that the quality remains within the limits of earlier years). To analyse the potential consequences of the construction of a new oil pipeline to Hungary for the energy security of Serbia, it is necessary to look at the geopolitical circumstances in which this decision was made and to consider which alternative options are available to Serbia and how adequate and feasible they truly are.
Topic:
Oil, Bilateral Relations, Pipeline, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, and Hungary

526. Balkan Csárdás: Hungarian Foreign Policy Dance

Author:
Srđan Cvijić, Ivana Ranković, Luka Šterić, Maja Bjeloš, and Marko Drajic
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
Since Orbán reassumed power in 2010, the Hungarian government has taken a more active role in the Western Balkans. In a short time period, it has increased its political and economic footprint. This paper is one of few all-encompassing efforts to explain Hungarian policy and involvement in the Western Balkans, and it attempts to do so by asking the following questions: What interests and strategic considerations drive Hungarian foreign and trade policy in the region? Who formulates foreign policy priorities in Hungary and what is the interplay between formal and informal actors? What economic interests shape Hungarian foreign policy in the region? How much has Hungarian foreign policy in the region changed as a result of the war in Ukraine? To answer these questions, this paper is divided into four main sections. The first focuses on Hungary’s foreign policy strategy in the region. The second, as a special case study, investigates the effects of Orbán’s minority politics in Serbia’s Autonomous Province of Vojvodina (Vajdaság in Hungarian). The third, researching the Hungarian media empire in the region, and finally the fourth focuses on the economic drivers of Hungary’s approach in the region. The paper builds upon numerous secondary sources and online and in-person interviews conducted with 19 government representatives, politicians, foreign policy experts, scholars, and journalists from Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Trade, Regional Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Western Balkans

527. Wings of Change: The Coming Drone Proliferation in the Western Balkans

Author:
Filip Ejdus and Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
What are contributing factors to the rise of drones in the Balkans and how might they change the military balance of power in the region? Find out in the BCSP analysis written by the BCSP Senior Researcher Vuk Vuksanović, and Filip Ejdus, a professor in security studies at the Faculty of Political Science, University of Belgrade and the Member of the Executive Board at the BCSP. In May 2023, Turkey delivered to Kosovo five Bayraktar TB2 attack drones to be used by its Kosovo Security Forces (KSF). The transaction was done seven months after the signing of the contract, and as Kosovo was close to hosting a large US-led military exercise, Defender Europe 23. This transaction might signify things to come, that is, the proliferation of armed drones in the Western Balkans. The reasons for this potential proliferation of armed drones are multiple. First, they include that drones are becoming an unavoidable hallmark of the global security landscape, used by superpowers like the US and in various regional conflicts worldwide. Second, the fact that Serbia is ahead of its neighbours in the number of drones it operates creates an impulse with its neighbours to match that capability. Third, the extant regional arms control regime in the Western Balkans has loopholes related to the more modern weapons systems like drones. Fourth, the acquisition of weapon systems like drones is a powerful political instrument for local nations to increase their regional and international bargaining power, as well as for the powers supplying them to boost their influence in the Balkans. Finally, investing in armed forces, including acquiring modern systems like drones, is a powerful method of domestic political promotion for the local elites. This combination of factors makes regional drone proliferation in the Western Balkans highly probable.
Topic:
Weapons, Drones, Military, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Serbia and Western Balkans

528. Enabling Just Change in the International Health Care Governance

Author:
Srdan Hercigonja
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This publication comes after months of research conducted by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, in collaboration with its partners in the Western Balkans region - Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (Prishtina), Centre for Security Studies (Sarajevo), Institute Alternative (Podgorica), Institute for Democracy and Mediation (Tirana) and Institute for Democracy “Societas Civilis” (Skopje). The first stage focused on desk research over the course of nine months. Extensive desk research followed, with semi-structured interviews with public health experts conducted in order to assess the pandemic management in each of the Western Balkan countries – North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The second stage of the research was focused on the reform of the global health governance system and structures. This part of the research implied semi-structured interviews and discussions with global health experts, as well as with experts in global governance. The baseline for the set of recommendations presented in this paper is that pandemics remain one of the most serious threats to human, national, and global security. Therefore, fundamental reforms of global health governance must be implemented in order for the global society to be better prepared for the next pandemic. Two external experts also contributed to this paper.
Topic:
Security, Health, Governance, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Western Balkans

529. Resolve to Protect: The War in Ukraine and Challenges to Protecting Civilians in Evolving Warfare Dynamics

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
What can the states and governments do to protect civilians in conflict and prevent further civilian losses in war in Ukraine? Read about it in the new analysis written by a member of the BCSP International Advisory Committee, Marta Martinelli. The war in Ukraine marks a turning point in the history of Europe and of the relations between the West and Russia, as well as more broadly, the configuration of alliances that the conflict contributes to shaping as it protracts and evolves. The situation in Ukraine is a powerful indication of a world we used to take for granted. The old framework provided a more or less reliable ecosystem designed to provide predictability and a level of stability acceptable to the world’s large powers. It included the use of diplomacy to address international confrontations, reliance on international law to regulate relations amongst states including in the conduct of hostilities, and a general ‘agreement’ that provoking a direct confrontation between Russia and the West belonged to the realm of the irrational and unacceptable. That predictability was shattered in February 2022. If there is one element that emerges starkly from the conduct of the war in Ukraine, it is the insignificance of diplomacy to restore peace and the total disregard for International Humanitarian Law and civilians caught in the war. Whilst not new to contemporary conflicts (as seen in Darfur, the Central African Republic, Yemen, and Syria, amongst others) the scale and speed of the harm inflicted to civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is unprecedented, facilitated also by the use of new technologies.
Topic:
Civilians, Armed Conflict, Protection, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

530. Digital Surveillance in Serbia

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
People’s ever-stronger reliance on digital technologies and devices has caused states and private actors to increasingly reach for various systems and tools for the digital surveillance of citizens. Consequently, high-resolution cameras, artificial intelligence, programmes for biometric recognition, tools for automatic data collection from the Internet, and intrusive software for monitoring mobile phones have become the everyday reality of people worldwide. The spread of digital surveillance in Serbia is highly non-transparent, and especially dangerous since Serbia has been assessed as a captured state characterised by the abuse of state resources for the sake of personal and party interests. Although the reports by the media and investigative journalists are important, they are focused on individual cases, which makes it difficult to get a broader picture of the scale of the digital surveillance problem in Serbia based on them. That is why it is important, starting from the existing reports, to map the digital surveillance infrastructure in Serbia, i.e. to make a list of digital surveillance equipment and programmes the state institutions have acquired, determine whether they are competent and authorised to use them, and how these technologies are misused. Since Serbia is striving to become a member of the European Union (EU), it is also important to show how the EU is attempting to regulate this area.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Surveillance, Institutions, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

531. Perceptions of Public Safety and Trust in Security and Justice Institutions: Socio-Economic Influences in Serbia

Author:
Dušan Stanković
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This analysis is based on the public opinion survey conducted in Serbia in 2022. The research objectives were to investigate citizens’ perceptions of public safety and trust in security and justice institutions in Serbia. Public safety perceptions were divided into questions on national safety and personal safety. The report is structured to present methodology and findings on the trust in security and justice institutions, and then perceptions of national and personal safety risks. The results are presented using graphic figures and text. The perceptions and demographical (socio-economic characteristics) differences are analyzed using a statistical test. Since the data of this study includes responses to the public opinion survey from October 2022, readers must consider the time gap between the public poll results and current public safety in Serbia.
Topic:
Security, Public Opinion, Institutions, Trust, and Public Safety
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

532. Between Emotions and Realism: Two Faces of Turkish Foreign Policy in the Balkans

Author:
Srdan Hercigonja and Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
Turkey’s more assertive posture towards the Balkans is neglected compared to the commentariat that deals with Russia and China. To fill this policy gap, the research team of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) has conducted research based on the analysis of secondary source material and, even more importantly, on fieldwork interviews that involved 16 sources, academics and think tank researchers based in Istanbul and Ankara. Although the consulted sources have different backgrounds and political sympathies, the research established a presence of common themes. Namely, Turkish foreign policy in the Balkans has two aspects. The first is based on emotions. Turkish foreign policy towards the region is framed by Turkey’s special ties with the region based on shared history, social connections, identity factors and the legacy of the Ottoman Empire. The Balkan country most frequently mentioned in the context of special ties with Turkey is Bosnia and Herzegovina, in light of socio-cultural ties and the fact that it is a country in which the Ottoman legacy is felt most strongly. The second approach is rooted in traditional foreign policy realism derived from an objective and calculated assessment of the regional balance of power and one’s own interests. Within this approach, Turkey is trying, for security and strategic reasons, to act pragmatically and be effective in the Balkans without entangling itself in crises that could impede its regional influence. This approach leads Turkey towards engaging Serbia, the region’s strategically consequential country because Ankara is deeply convinced that if it wishes to be effective in the Balkans, it needs to have a partnership with Belgrade. In doing so, it must strike a balance between emotions and realism. It needs to walk the fine line between nurturing ties with communities with cultural and religious ties, like Bosniaks and Albanians, while avoiding alienating countries whose partnership Ankara needs to succeed in the Balkans, such as Serbia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Emotions, Realism, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, Asia, and Balkans

533. A Driver of Green Transition or a Colonial Tailing Dump: Political Discourse on the Jadar Project

Author:
Luka Šterić
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to analyse the political debate surrounding the Jadar Project. It will present the development of the debate, the key actors, and the dominant discourses that formulated it. The first section of the study is dedicated to understanding the wider context and importance of the project, both in Serbia and globally. In the second, we will present the three stages of the development of the discourse on the Jadar Project so far. We will then go into a detailed analysis of the actors and narratives that have guided the political debate. Finally, in the last section, we will look at the consequences of the debate on the political arena in Serbia, as well as the possible future of the discourse on this project and environmental topics in general.
Topic:
Development, Environment, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

534. Messy Diplomacy: Western Balkan Countries Facing the Gaza Conflict

Author:
Srđan Cvijić and Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The ongoing war that Israel is waging in Gaza against Hamas is one of the most consequential conflicts with serious political implications worldwide. The Gaza conflict has already diverted the world’s attention from what has been the most dominant international conflict in the past year and a half: the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many countries in the Western Balkans are conflicted about what diplomatic stance to take on the Gaza war, primarily whether they should support Israel or Palestine or remain neutral since their decision-making will have to balance their domestic public, as well as their ties with Israel, Muslim countries and, most importantly, the US and the EU. The vote taken on October 26 in the UN General Assembly (hereinafter: UNGA) on the resolution that called for a truce between Israel and Hamas with a strong emphasis on humanitarian factors demonstrated how conflicted the Western Balkan countries were on the current conflict in Gaza. The pattern of division among the Western Balkan countries on this occasion somewhat diverges from the votes cast in different UN fora in the past decade. Whereas Albania and North Macedonia have continued with their previous positions when it comes to their foreign policy toward the conflict in the Middle East, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia have displayed an interesting change.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hamas, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Western Balkans

535. BSC Trends: Reconstructing the Global (Dis)Order

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
We proudly present you the ‘BSC Trends: Reconstructing the Global (Dis)Order,’ the companion publication to the Belgrade Security Conference 2023, held in Belgrade from October 11th to 13th, 2023. This publication aims to shed light on and discuss, following the style of BSC discussions, the most significant global, regional, and local events, phenomena, and developments that have marked this year. These topics were part of the panel discussions in this year’s BSC conference program. The authors of the texts in this publication have taken an additional step by attempting, thoroughly and analytically, to foresee events in the near future within each of the covered subjects. The significance of this publication lies in its capacity to indicate, over an extended period, the primary directions in the development of foreign and security policies, international relations, the European Union, the third power influence, the existence of the global order, and the phenomenon of globalization. It explores how these aspects impact geopolitics, the Balkans, international relations, EU enlargement, the rise of right-wing politics in Europe, the Ukraine conflict, and the Middle East. Starting this year, after each edition of the Belgrade Security Conference, this publication will be released to capture the essence of the discussed themes that defined the conference. Furthermore, it will expand these themes through analyses by the finest researchers of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, along with our external partners, friends of the institution, and other invited authors.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Globalization, European Union, and International Order
Political Geography:
Europe

536. Youth, Guns and Safety: Analysis of the Response to the Multiple Murders of 3 and 4 May

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
After the multiple murders that took place on 3 and 4 May 2023, the Government of Serbia adopted a series of measures to improve gun control and increase safety in schools and among youth. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implementation and effectiveness of these measures. The ... After the multiple murders that took place on 3 and 4 May 2023, the Government of Serbia adopted a series of measures to improve gun control and increase safety in schools and among youth. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implementation and effectiveness of these measures. The research was based on different sources of data: the state authorities’ official reports, expert literature, media reports, interviews conducted with police officers, the Armed Violence Monitoring Platform (AVMP) database, and a survey of the citizens’ satisfaction with measures, their perception of security and trust in institutions. Most of the measures that have been adopted are related to firearms, while a smaller part refers to the safety of young people and education. Also, measures related to firearms have been implemented more than others, and some are still in effect (gun control, moratorium on the issuance of gun permits). Most of the measures were not implemented even though more than six months have passed since their adoption. Some of them, like tougher penalties for firearms-related offences or lowering the threshold for criminal liability, require legislative changes. In addition, the research and experience of other countries do not support the idea that tougher penal policies would decrease criminality. The conclusions show that the measures were motivated by political interests to satisfy the public and that they were not adopted by professionals from the fields of public security, justice or education, which is why some have turned out to be impossible to implement (restricting access to the Dark Net, reducing the threshold for criminal responsibility, gun control in the short term) or are unsustainable for the system (police presence in schools, testing students for the presence of psychoactive substances). Analysis of data from the regional Armed Violence Monitoring Platform, which records media-covered incidents involving firearms, indicates that the number of such incidents did not change much after 3 and 4 May. Also, other data sources show that levels of violence and incidents involving firearms are not decreasing and that implemented measures have not changed anything in this sense. The results of the public opinion survey show that the number of citizens who are not satisfied with the measures is slightly higher than the number of those who are. Satisfaction with safety measures in schools (47% of the respondents) is a bit higher than satisfaction with measures related to gun control (54% of the respondents). Six months after the adoption of these measures, the satisfaction of citizens is visibly decreasing – 44% of them are satisfied with the measures, while 56% are not. Comparing the results of public opinion polls in 2023 with those from 2022, it is evident that citizens’ trust in institutions has dropped significantly: 63% trust the police (76% in 2022), 49% trust the courts (57%), and 50% trust the prosecutor’s office (56%). Also, the perception of citizens’ safety considering the environment has decreased at all levels: in their homes, neighbourhoods and in Serbia in general. Finally, the survey also showed that more citizens now feel threatened by phenomena such as murder (56%) and illegal possession of firearms (61%) than was the case in 2022 (murder 49%, illegal possession of firearms 54%).
Topic:
Security, Crime, and Gun Violence
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

537. Climate Change and Geopolitics in the Blue Pacific

Author:
Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Climate change has consistently been articulated as the greatest threat to the region by the leaders of Pacific Island countries. Atoll nations face the possibility of forced displacement due to rising sea levels and extreme weather events. At the same time, these countries risk being drawn into the China-US competition for geopolitical influence even though this rivalry provides opportunities for them to engage with the big powers to deal with climate change. The Pacific island countries have also been strengthening their regional security through a more unified approach, established in their 2050 Blue Pacific Strategy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Geopolitics, Regional Security, Forced Displacement, and Climate Refugees
Political Geography:
China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

538. The Dual Mandate of Food Exporting States: India’s Roles in the Global Food Order

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Criticisms of India’s rice export ban must be balanced with the recognition of its responsibility to ensure food affordability for its constituents. Finding a middle ground that addresses India’s predicament could help to prevent the impending international food price crisis from escalating.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Exports, Affordability, Rice, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

539. Volatility in the Rice Sector: Time for ASEAN to Act?

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
How Thailand and Vietnam – two major rice exporters after India – will react to the latter’s recent rice export ban will depend very much on expectations of how long the ban will last. Should rice exporters in these countries engage in price speculation, global food security can be put at risk. It is time for ASEAN to explore how price speculation in the rice trade can be prevented.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, ASEAN, Volatility, and Rice
Political Geography:
India, Vietnam, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

540. Climate Security and Role of Women in ASEAN

Author:
Tamara Nair
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Climate change processes are acknowledged as critical components of regional and international security, and ASEAN should mobilise all segments of its population and existing plans of action to tackle this challenge. The role of women in ASEAN’s peace and security including climate change should be acknowledged and strengthened systematically. The ASEAN Women, Peace and Security Regional Plan of Action offers such an opportunity for increased regional cooperation and resilience.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, International Security, Women, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

541. Climate Change in Japan’s New Defence and Security Strategies

Author:
Alistair D B Cook
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Japan has taken concrete steps to integrate climate change into its defence and security strategy going forward, and to provide the necessary budget for implementing the relevant measures needed in mitigating the impacts of this threat. This may signal a more prominent leadership role for Japan on climate security in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, and Environment
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

542. Disaster Management in Southeast Asia: 20 Years of Progress and Challenges

Author:
Mely Caballero-Anthony, Alistair D B Cook, and Jonatan Anderias Lassa
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The management of consequences arising from natural hazards in Southeast Asia has seen laudable advancement in the last 20 years. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has played a positive role in this progress. However, there is emerging disaster policy inertia that reflect local realities at the ASEAN and global levels.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

543. China’s “Catchup” on Growing Genetically Modified Crops

Author:
Paul Teng and Genevieve Donnellon-May
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
China, the world’s largest importer of corn and soybean, seems finally to accept the potential of using genetically modified (GM) feed crops. Will this be enough to reduce China’s dependency on such imports and will it meet the demands of other countries that are also experiencing an increase in demand for feed to increase production of animal meat?
Topic:
Agriculture, Science and Technology, Food, and Production
Political Geography:
China and Asia

544. IMPLICATIONS OF THE SAUDI-IRAN DEAL FOR YEMEN

Author:
Marta Furlan
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
In 2014, the Houthis, a Zaydi Shia armed group from the Sa’ada region of northern Yemen, aligned with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had been removed following the Arab Spring uprisings. Together, they defeated the government led by President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, and established control over the Yemeni capital of Sana’a and the entirety of northern Yemen. At that time, Iran began to progressively increase its support for the Houthis, seeing partnership with the group as an opportunity to advance its revisionist agenda in the region and establish its influence in the southern Red Sea, an area of immense strategic significance. Threatened by aggressive Iranian expansionism at its doorstep, in March 2015, Saudi Arabia entered the war alongside Hadi. As Iran sided with the Houthis and Saudi Arabia sided with Hadi, Yemen became the battlefield of both a domestic competition for power between different local factions and a regional competition for influence between Teheran and Riyadh.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Syrian War, Houthis, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

545. WHY DEMOCRACIES AREN’T MORE RELIABLE ALLIANCE PARTNERS

Author:
Mark Nieman and Doug Gibler
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
ussia’s invasion of Ukraine set off a security spiral in Europe. Despite US President Biden’s pledge to “defend every inch of NATO territory,” Poland increased its military budget by a whopping 60 percent and asked to have US nuclear weapons based on its territory. Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia also announced sizable defense increases, with Latvia re-instating compulsory military training. Why didn’t Biden’s pledge reassure these NATO members? Is the alliance’s famed Article 5 promise—that an attack on one member is an attack on all—a less than ironclad guarantee?
Topic:
NATO, Democracy, Alliance, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

546. WOULD AN ARMED HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION IN HAITI BE LEGAL—AND COULD IT SUCCEED?

Author:
Alexandra Byrne, Zoha Siddiqui, and Kelebogile Zvobgo
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Haitian officials and world leaders are calling for an armed humanitarian intervention backed by the United Nations (UN) to defeat organized crime. Gangs in Haiti have reportedly kidnapped and killed hundreds of civilians and displaced thousands. Gangs are also limiting access to fuel and blocking critical humanitarian aid to civilians. Add to this a resurgence of cholera. The United States asked the UN Security Council in October to approve a targeted intervention, under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield underscored “extreme violence and instability” in Haiti and proposed a mission led by a “partner country” (not the United States or UN peacekeeping forces). There is nominal support for the mission. In the coming weeks, Canada will send naval vessels to Haiti’s coast, and Jamaica has offered some troops, but no country is taking the lead. Critics argue that past missions in Haiti did more harm than good. In 2010, UN peacekeepers even reintroduced cholera into Haiti. Nonetheless, the United States is pushing for an intervention.
Topic:
International Law, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:
Caribbean, Haiti, and United States of America

547. POWER, NOT PEACE: THE ACHILLES’ HEEL OF THE OLYMPIC GAMES

Author:
Timothy D. Sisk
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
The row between International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over potential Russian and Belarussian athlete participation at Paris 2024 exposes the Achilles’ Heel of the Olympic Games: the peace-promising celebrations are inescapably ensnared in nation-state power politics. The IOC announced on January 25 a proposal to facilitate participation in the 2024 Olympic Games for individual athletes from Russia (and close ally Belarus) individually and neutrally in the Paris games. The statement reversed an IOC Executive Board decision from February 28, 2022, to impose more sweeping participation sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine invasion.
Topic:
Sports, Olympics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Global Focus

548. WHY DO MASS EXPULSIONS STILL HAPPEN?

Author:
Meghan Garrity
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
January 30, 2023 marks 100 years since the signing of the Lausanne Convention—a treaty codifying the compulsory “population exchange” between Greece and Turkey. An estimated 1.5 million people were forcibly expelled from their homes: over one million Greek Orthodox Christians from the Ottoman Empire and 500,000 Muslims from Greece. This population exchange was not the first such agreement, but it was the first compulsory exchange. Turkish nationals of the Greek Orthodox religion and Muslim Greek nationals did not have the option to remain. Further, Greek and Muslim refugees who had fled the Ottoman Empire and Greece, respectively, were not allowed to return to their homes. Only small populations in Istanbul and Western Thrace were exempted from the treaty.
Topic:
Human Rights, History, Refugees, International Criminal Court (ICC), Rome Statute, Rohingya, Geneva Convention, and Lausanne Convention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Turkey, Greece, Germany, Nigeria, Myanmar, and Niger

549. The INE Debate and the Formation of the Neoliberal Democracy in Mexico

Author:
Luiz Alberto Gómez de Souza
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Although Mexico’s electoral institute was originally born out of struggles for democracy, it has since become a guardian of the neoliberal Mexican state.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

550. The Causes Behind the Ciudad Juárez Migrant Detention Center Fire

Author:
Josiah Heyman and Jeremy Slack
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The fire that killed 40 people on March 27 is the foreseeable consequence of binational immigration enforcement measures by the United States and Mexico.
Topic:
Law Enforcement, Border Control, Immigration Policy, and Migrants
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, Mexico, United States of America, and Ciudad Juarez

551. El Salvador: Surfing in the “New Land of the Free?”

Author:
Julián Reingold
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The expansion of the Surf City tourism project towards the eastern and unexploited part of the country raises concerns over democracy, sustainability, and land ownership.
Topic:
Tourism, Democracy, Land Rights, Sustainability, and Surfing
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and El Salvador

552. Transgressive Notes from Ecuador’s Prisons

Author:
Luis Barrios
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
President Guillermo Lasso’s Commission for Penitentiary Dialogue and Pacification was a failure. Now, a new Prison Observatory seeks to generate broad-based solutions to Ecuador’s prison crisis.
Topic:
Human Rights, Prisons/Penal Systems, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Ecuador

553. The Pursuit of Memory and Justice in Bojayá

Author:
Marlon Londoño
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Twenty-one years after the Bojayá Massacre destroyed their town, survivors in the community of Bellavista Nueva in northwestern Colombia recount their story on their own terms.
Topic:
Transitional Justice, Conflict, Memory, Justice, and Extrajudicial Killings
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

554. "Rompamos El Silencio"

Author:
Julio Ramírez
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The recent dismantling of the Cuna Nahuat Indigenous language program in El Salvador is the latest in a long history of erasure for Salvadoran Indigenous communities.
Topic:
Civil War, Culture, Minorities, Language, and Indigenous
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and El Salvador

555. Communal Resistance and Land Theft Mark Lead up to Guatemala Elections

Author:
Gladys Tzul Tzul and Simón Antonio Ramón
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Mass protests against taxation measures and the forced displacement of Indigenous communities set the backdrop for Guatemala’s upcoming presidential elections.
Topic:
Elections, Displacement, Protests, Land Rights, and Indigenous
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Guatemala

556. Ecuador Headed for Early Elections After President Dissolves Legislature

Author:
Diana Guarnizo Peralta
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
To head off an impeachment vote, Guillermo Lasso chose the nuclear option. Amid polarization and a protracted political stalemate, what comes next remains uncertain.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Crisis, Impeachment, and Guillermo Lasso
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Ecuador

557. Far Right Holds Chile Hostage

Author:
Carole Concha Bell
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The ultra-conservative Republican Party won a majority on Chile’s new Constitutional Council, delivering a major blow to President Gabriel Boric’s transformative platform.
Topic:
Elections, Constitution, Far Right, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Chile

558. Amazonia on the Brink

Author:
Carlos Andrés Baquero Díaz
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Our Summer 2023 issue of the NACLA Report brings movement voices together with research and analysis to lay out what’s at stake in the Amazon and how to avert a deeper crisis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Human Rights, and Indigenous
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

559. Amid Inflation, Costa Rica Workers Face Longer Workdays and Cuts to Overtime

Author:
Isabel Villalon
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
After years of neoliberal entrenchment, a proposed law is poised to erode longstanding labor rights in the private sector, making the working-class more precarious.
Topic:
Law, Neoliberalism, Private Sector, Labor Rights, Labor Unions, and Working Class
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and Costa Rica

560. Peru: Infinite Protest and Indolent Elites

Author:
Nicolás Lynch
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The anti-government protests that erupted in December have a clear political agenda: new elections and the convening of a constituent assembly.
Topic:
Elections, Protests, and Elites
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Peru

561. Latin America’s New Left Surge

Author:
Linda Farthing
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Our latest issue of the NACLA Report explores lessons from the Pink Tide and what lies ahead for the diverse Lefts in Latin America today.
Topic:
Politics, Leftist Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America

562. Transnational Guarani Land Defense and Solidarity

Author:
William Costa
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Guarani community leaders from Brazil and Paraguay come together to strengthen alliances and share experiences of fighting for their ancestral territories.
Topic:
Solidarity, Land Rights, Indigenous, and Guarani
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Paraguay

563. A Conversation with ELN Commander and Peace Negotiator Aureliano Carbonell

Author:
Jerano Abraham
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
National Liberation Army Commander Aureliano Carbonell speaks about prospects for peace in the guerrilla organization’s second round of dialogues with the Colombian government.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Peace, and Guerrillas
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

564. International Feminist Strike in Argentina

Author:
Virginia Tognola
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
A chronicle of International Women’s Day in Buenos Aires, focused on the demands of sexual dissidences
Topic:
Women, Feminism, Protests, LGBT+, Justice, and Gender
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

565. Militarized Security and a Cartel Apology in Matamoros

Author:
Philip Luke Johnson
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The abduction and murder of U.S. citizens in the border city of Matamoros is part of a larger pattern of violence with impunity by state and criminal actors.
Topic:
Security, Crime, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, Border Control, Impunity, Violence, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

566. El Salvador’s State of Exception Turns One

Author:
Katherine Funes
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Rather than address the root causes of violence, President Nayib Bukele’s prolonged state of emergency militarizes Salvadoran society and exacerbates state persecution of vulnerable communities.
Topic:
Human Rights, State Violence, Violence, LGBT+, and Mass Incarceration
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and El Salvador

567. The Latin American Left Turns Its Back on Dictatorship

Author:
Raúl Zibechi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The Latin American Left has largely distanced itself from Nicaragua’s Ortega. Still, understanding the shift from revolution to authoritarianism remains complex.
Topic:
Human Rights, Authoritarianism, Revolution, and Leftist Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America and Nicaragua

568. The Drive Behind Tesla’s New Manufacturing Plant in Mexico

Author:
Mateo Crossa and Nina Ebner
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Tesla’s plan to open a Gigafactory in Monterrey is welcomed by local business elites, but will only deepen processes of labor devaluation and technological dependency.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Business, Manufacturing, Elites, and Tesla
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

569. Peru's Media Faces a Crisis Within a Crisis

Author:
Brunella Tipismana
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
With Peru's mainstream media concentrated in a few hands, citizens turn to the internet to challenge hegemonic narratives. The results are not always utopian.
Topic:
Human Rights, Media, Protests, Crisis Management, and Bias
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Peru

570. Anarchists vs. the State

Author:
Kirwin Shaffer
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
As Latin America swings left, activists keep alive a long anarchist tradition of critiquing the limits of state power. For them, the real alternatives are in communities, workplaces, and the streets.
Topic:
State, Anarchism, and Activism
Political Geography:
Brazil, Colombia, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile

571. The Reinvention of the Latin American Right

Author:
Luis Herrán-Ávila
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Across the hemisphere and beyond, right-wing forces are leveraging the power of internationalism to galvanize hardline “resistance” against a new wave of leftist governments.
Topic:
Leftist Politics, Right-Wing Politics, Regional Politics, and Internationalism
Political Geography:
Latin America

572. Navigating Apathy and Attacks in the Struggle for Migrant Rights in Chile

Author:
Pablo Seward Delaporte
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
For one activist, Chile’s proposed constitution missed a historic opportunity to defend migrant rights amid a right-wing backlash that ultimately defeated the new progressive charter.
Topic:
Human Rights, Constitution, Domestic Politics, Right-Wing Politics, and Migrants
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Chile

573. Anti-Abortion Organizing in Colombia

Author:
Radha Sarkar
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Colombia now has one of the most liberal abortion regimes in the Americas, but with conservative groups rallying in opposition, the future of the country’s abortion rights is far from secure.
Topic:
Conservatism, Reproductive Rights, Abortion, and Community Organizing
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

574. Peru: The Country of Failed Transitions

Author:
Roger Merino
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Peru’s latest political crisis is rooted in the failure of key transitions to consolidate democracy and basic social coexistence.
Topic:
Democracy, Transition, Political Crisis, and Society
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Peru

575. What’s Next for Bolivia After Camacho’s Arrest?

Author:
Pablo Solon
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
A controversial, high-profile detention reveals deep divides within the MAS and an uncertain path forward amid an ongoing conservative backlash.
Topic:
Politics, Domestic Politics, Conservatism, Protests, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Bolivia

576. Popular Organizing is the Only Way to Stop Bolsonarismo

Author:
Sabrina Fernandes
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The essence of the phenomenon tied to Jair Bolsonaro’s rise is extreme, and it is a potent force for radicalizing people towards authoritarian and violent positions.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Radicalization, Violence, Jair Bolsonaro, and Community Organizing
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

577. “The Major Challenge to Brazilian Democracy Today Is Bolsonarismo”

Author:
Michael Fox
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In the wake of the attack on Brasília, both the Lula administration and civil society have a major role to play in combatting the forces propelling Brazil’s far right.
Topic:
Civil Society, Domestic Politics, Far Right, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

578. Brasília and Washington

Author:
Chris N. Lesser
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Beyond the parallels with the U.S. Capitol riot, the latest assault on Brazil’s democracy is marked by Washington’s long history of anti-democratic foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democracy, Jair Bolsonaro, January 6, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

579. Despite Indigenous Resistance, Mexico Authorizes Mining Concessions in Protected Areas

Author:
Santiago Navarro F.
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador entered office promising not to grant new mining licenses. But concessions have been authorized in Indigenous territories.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Mining, Indigenous, Resistance, and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)
Political Geography:
Latin America, Mexico, and North America

580. Indigenous Protesters Campaign to Make "Chineo" A Hate Crime in Argentina

Author:
Carole Concha Bell
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Women and Indigenous groups denounce widespread sexual violence perpetrated against Indigenous girls and women in northern Argentina.
Topic:
Women, Protests, Sexual Violence, Indigenous, Girls, and Hate Crimes
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

581. Honduran Women Leaders in the Crosshairs

Author:
Laura Blume, Diana Meza, and Piper Heath
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Amid a widespread culture of impunity, women public figures are killed in Honduras at an alarming rate.
Topic:
Women, Leadership, Impunity, and Targeted Killing
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and Honduras

582. A Legacy of Canadian Intervention in Haiti, 20 Years On

Author:
Jean Saint-Vil
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
As Canada and other foreign powers consider renewed intervention in Haiti, the history of the Ottawa Initiative offers an urgent reminder of the catastrophic consequences.
Topic:
Colonialism, Crisis Management, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Canada, Caribbean, and Haiti

583. El Salvador Arrests Prominent Anti-Mining Activists

Author:
Giada Ferrucci and Pedro Cabezas
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The government of Nayib Bukele opens civil war wounds by arresting five water defenders linked to the historic community of Santa Marta, raising speculation about a possible reversal of the country’s metals mining ban.
Topic:
Civil War, Mining, Land Rights, Activism, Arbitrary Detentions, and State of Emergency
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and El Salvador

584. Is Colombia One Step Away from a Fracking Ban?

Author:
César Rodríguez
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
While lawmakers debate a proposed fracking prohibition, deepening struggles over the social and environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction loom.
Topic:
Environment, Oil, Gas, Legislation, Wealth Extraction, and Fracking
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

585. Chile’s New Constitutional Process Shifts to the Right

Author:
Cathy Schneider and Sofía Williamson-García
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Hollowed-out political parties and the legacy of dictatorship once again leave Chile’s constitutional process hindered by a crisis of representation.
Topic:
Constitution, Domestic Politics, Representation, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
South America and Chile

586. Brazil’s First-Ever Ministry of Indigenous Peoples Launched Amid a State of Emergency

Author:
Daniela Rebello
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Among the historic ministry's first challenges are a large-scale gold mining crackdown and an investigation of genocide against the Yanomami people.
Topic:
Genocide, Domestic Politics, Mining, Indigenous, and State of Emergency
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

587. War in Ukraine: One Year On, Nowhere Safe

Author:
Nichita Gurcov
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, ACLED records nearly 40,000 political violence events across the country. Three-quarters of these events are shelling, artillery, and missile strikes mostly affecting the northeastern, eastern, and southern regions of Ukraine. Quantifying the civilian toll of the conflict presents a challenge – especially in areas continuously engulfed by violence, like eastern Ukraine. In areas under Russian occupation, reports of abductions, forced disappearances, torture, and extrajudicial executions have been widespread, though the scale of violence against civilians becomes known only upon the liberation of territories, evidenced in the case of northern Ukraine and especially the Kyiv suburbs. Meanwhile, long-range strikes, including those deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure, pose a permanent threat and continue to induce extreme hardship for communities even farther afield from the frontline.
Topic:
War Crimes, Conflict, Civilians, Russia-Ukraine War, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

588. Political Repression in Cuba Ahead of the 2023 Parliamentary Elections

Author:
Sandra Pellegrini and Ana Marco
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 26 March 2023, voters will elect 470 deputies to Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s Power, who, in addition to fulfilling legislative functions during their five-year term, will be nominating Cuba’s next head of state. The government has characterized Cuba’s political system as a grassroots democracy, where candidacies to the parliament largely emerge from municipal authorities and are approved by the National Candidate Commission, a body composed of social organizations, such as labor unions and student associations.1 In practice, however, Cuba’s electoral process has been criticized for blocking the opposition’s access to power. Notably, the Council for Democratic Transition in Cuba, a platform created by opposition members to promote pluralism, freedom, and human rights, has called voters to boycott the upcoming elections after pro-government supporters reportedly prevented several opposition candidates from running in the November 2022 municipal elections.2
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Repression, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean

589. Actor Profile: The March 23 Movement (M23)

Author:
Ladd Serwat
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The March 23 Movement (M23) — Mouvement du 23 Mars in French — is an armed group operating in Nord Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with alleged backing from the Rwandan government. The roots of the M23 go back to the disrupted integration process of Rwandophone militants following the Congo Wars, splitting those willing to return to Rwanda and others desiring to stay in DRC.1 Many fighters remained in Nord Kivu province to form the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) under the leadership of a former Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) militant, Laurent Nkunda. A precursor to the M23, the CNDP claimed to protect Congolese Tutsi and received Rwandan support.2 The M23’s name comes from the failed negotiation process between the CNDP and the Congolese government on 23 March 2009.3
Topic:
Political Violence, Non State Actors, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

590. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Sustained Resurgence in Yemen or Signs of Further Decline?

Author:
Emile Roy
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
In the first two months of 2023, suspected United States drone strikes killed two senior leaders of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen’s Marib governorate. One of the group’s top explosives experts, a Yemeni citizen named Husayn Hadbul (also known as Hassan al-Hadrami), was killed on 30 January. The group’s media chief and leader of the group’s Shura Council, Saudi citizen Hamad al-Tamimi (also known as Abu Abd al-Aziz al-Adnani), was killed on 26 February. These strikes on high-profile AQAP leaders took place amid a resurgence of AQAP activity in Yemen, which started during the United Nations-mediated truce between Houthi and anti-Houthi forces that lasted from April to the beginning of October 2022, and that has informally held to this date.1 The lull in fighting between Houthi and anti-Houthi forces induced by the truce allowed for a broader political and military reconfiguration within the anti-Houthi camp. At the political level, former President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi was replaced by an eight-member Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) to enhance coordination among anti-Houthi forces. Armed militias affiliated with the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) and other United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed forces exploited the new situation to gain control over territory in southern Yemen. As part of this territorial expansion, STC forces spearheaded several offensives against AQAP beginning in August 2022, leading to a sudden rise in AQAP activity in 2022.2 However, the nature of this overall increase is disputed, with some analysts arguing that it is a sign of AQAP’s weakness rather than its strength.3
Topic:
Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Conflict, Houthis, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

591. Anti-Government Demonstrations in Iran: A Long-Term Challenge for the Islamic Republic

Author:
Dana Sammy
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Iran was rocked by mass demonstrations triggered by the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini — a young Kurdish woman — while in the custody of the Guidance Patrol (also known as the ‘morality police’) for allegedly violating the hijab dress code. Protests over the mandatory hijab rule soon coalesced around a wide range of grievances with the regime, with participants demanding protections for civil, political, and human rights and calling for an end to the Islamic Republic. Although street demonstrations have subsided for the time being, how the protest movement will evolve — and how it will impact the stability of the Islamic Republic — remains an open question. This report explores potential answers to this question by examining notable trends and implications of the wave of demonstrations that unfolded in the country between September and December 2022. It argues that several emerging aspects of the nationwide movement may pose a long-term challenge to the regime. The demonstrations following Amini’s death were not only unique in regard to their geographical spread and longevity, but also in the way they brought together different segments of society with both distinct and overlapping grievances. Moreover, amid a harsh crackdown by Iranian authorities, engagement in violence by demonstrators has trended upward: between mid-September and December 2022, ACLED records the highest number of violent demonstration events for any round of nationwide demonstrations in Iran since the beginning of data collection in 2016. The increased use of Molotov cocktails and the killing of dozens of security personnel are among the most significant trends in demonstration violence observed in the latest round of events. The demonstrations did not reach a critical mass necessary to pose an immediate threat to the survival of the regime. Yet, this latest round in a sequence of increasingly violent demonstrations is indicative of growing resentment in Iranian society against the ruling elites and a willingness to express it forcefully despite severe repression. As the regime refuses to reform, the growing frequency and intensity of demonstrations suggests that the government will find itself in an increasingly unstable domestic position and increasingly isolated in the international arena.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, Women, State Violence, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

592. Actor Profile: The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)

Author:
Sandra Pellegrini and María Fernanda Arocha
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) is a Mexican criminal group that emerged as a splinter group of the Milenio Cartel – one of the Sinaloa Cartel’s allies – after the capture of its leader in 2009 led to internal divisions.1 Initially, the group operated as an armed wing of the Sinaloa Cartel. As part of this alliance, it engaged in a deadly turf war against Los Zetas in Veracruz state, where the group stood out for its use of violence and involvement in numerous massacres.2 Under the leadership of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as El Mencho, the CJNG grew as an independent organization and one of the most powerful actors in Mexico’s criminal underworld. Rivaling its erstwhile ally, the Sinaloa Cartel, the CJNG turned from an armed wing into a complex drug-producing and trafficking structure, which supplies markets across the globe.3 It has diversified its activities and sources of income, relying on extortion, kidnapping, human trafficking, illegal mining, and oil theft,4 such as the capture of the avocado and oil trade in Michoacán and Guanajuato states.5 To support its growth and international ambitions, the CJNG has expanded its presence to at least 27 of Mexico’s 32 states.6 The presence of the CJNG has often driven increased violence at the local level, notably in areas of territorial dispute with other criminal groups.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Violence, Organized Crime, and Cartels
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

593. Turkey’s 2023 General Elections and the Kurdish Question

Author:
Ameneh Mehvar and Berk Özlü
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The most consequential elections in Turkey’s recent history are set to be held on 14 May, when Turkish citizens will elect a new president alongside a new parliament. An ideologically disparate coalition of six opposition parties, ranging from secularists, to Islamic conservatives, and Turkish nationalists, have joined forces under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu to unseat Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan has been in power for 20 years, initially as prime minister and then as president since 2014.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Minorities, Elections, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

594. The Normalization of Political Violence and the 2023 Legislative Elections in Greece

Author:
Niki Papadogiannaki and Vicky Yiagopoulou
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Elections in Greece come less than three months after the deadly head-on train collision at Tempe in the north of the country that killed 57 passengers. The incident on 28 February triggered demonstrations against the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, chastising him for initially blaming the collision on “tragic human error.”1 The unrest that followed caused the government to delay announcing the election date, which had been anticipated in April. Due to a new voting law, the elections will be held under a proportional representation system, wherein the leading party needs to secure at least 46% to have a chance to win absolute majority in parliament. However, this percentage has not been reached in the last three decades,2 making a clear victory on 21 May unlikely.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Protests
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

595. The Muqawama and Its Enemies: Shifting Patterns in Iran-Backed Shiite Militia Activity in Iraq

Author:
Luca Nevola and Miran Feyli
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The post-2003 security landscape in Iraq has seen the proliferation of dozens of militias identifying with Shiite Islam. Many of these actors are integrated into the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) – a paramilitary group established in 2014 to counter the Islamic State and later incorporated into the Iraqi state forces – and have strong relations with the Iranian regime and its security apparatus.1 These Iran-backed groups include prominent militias such as Kataib Hizbullah (KH), Asaib Ahl al-Haqq (AAH), and Haraka Hizbullah al-Nujaba (HHN), as well as a number of recently formed ‘facade groups’ like Ashab al-Kahf and Qasim al-Jabarin. Such facade groups are generally assumed to operate on behalf of KH, AAH, and HHN (see graph below). These groups are notable for portraying themselves as the Muqawama, or the ‘resistance’ against the United States and other foreign forces.
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Militias
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

596. Actor Profile: The Islamic State Sahel Province

Author:
Heni Nsaibia
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel) is a salafi-jihadist militant group and the Sahelian affiliate of the transnational Islamic State (IS) organization. It is primarily active in the border areas between Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — known as the tri-state border area, or Liptako-Gourma — but it has also engaged in sporadic activity in Algeria, Benin, and Nigeria. The group’s composition reflects the social fabric in the areas where it is active. Its members belong to the Fulani, Arab, Tuareg, Dawsahak, Songhai, and Djerma ethnic groups, although its core leadership was historically composed of Western Saharan militants.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
North Africa and Sahel

597. Beyond Riyadh: Houthi Cross-Border Aerial Warfare 2015-2022

Author:
Luca Nevola
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 25 March 2022, the Houthis launched a large-scale attack on Saudi Arabia using a combination of loitering munitions, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. This coordinated attack targeted oil refineries and energy infrastructure across Saudi territory, from Asir to the Eastern Province, and even threatened the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Jeddah. Yet, it turned out to be the last major gasp of the aerial war between Riyadh and the Sanaa-based government that had started in 2015. A few days later, on 2 April, a United Nations (UN)-mediated truce came into effect, which lasted until 2 October and, as of the time of writing, has effectively terminated Houthi cross-border attacks into Saudi and Emirati territories. In the current situation of relative stability, Saudi-Houthi talks are ongoing to renew and expand the truce.
Topic:
Deterrence, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

598. ACLED Year in Review Global Disorder in 2022

Author:
Timothy Lay
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine escalated the war to a level that dwarfed all other conflicts in 2022, both in the sheer scale of violence and its deadliness. It also obscured a significant overall deterioration of the security situation in most other regions worldwide. Driven by heightened levels of conflict in both new and longstanding hotspots, political violence increased substantially over the course of the year. While 2022 saw some positive developments – including a significant reduction in total violent events in places like Afghanistan and Yemen after years of war – these gains only represent qualified improvements. Despite the aggregate decline in events in Afghanistan and Yemen, for example, they remain home to two of the most complex and severe conflict environments in the world. Globally, political violence targeting civilians became not only more common but also more deadly in 2022, underscoring the fact that it is civilian communities that are increasingly shouldering the burden of rising conflict levels around the world.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Civilians, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Ukraine, Yemen, and Global Focus

599. Deadly Rio de Janeiro: Armed Violence and the Civilian Burden

Author:
Bhavani Castro and Julia Links Franciotti
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The public security situation in Brazil is complicated, and particularly in Rio de Janeiro state, which has high levels of violence and criminality. The presence of multiple different criminal groups fighting for territory, coupled with abusive government measures to tackle criminal activity, has created a deadly, high-risk environment for civilians in the state. In 2021, Rio de Janeiro registered 27 violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, a rate lower than states like Bahia and Ceará but significantly higher than the national average of 22. Rio de Janeiro also ranked first among Brazilian states in the number of deaths recorded during police interventions, with at least 1,356 people reportedly killed.1 In May 2021, for example, a police operation against drug traffickers in the Jacarezinho community in Rio de Janeiro city resulted in 29 reported fatalities. While authorities claimed that all those killed in the operation were linked to criminal groups, witnesses reported that police officers entered civilian houses and carried out extrajudicial executions.2 The Jacarezinho operation was the deadliest single event recorded by ACLED in Brazil in 2021. A year later, in May 2022, military and federal police forces clashed with the Red Command (CV) in the Vila Cruzeiro community in the Penha Complex, resulting in at least 26 reported fatalities, including civilians. These are not isolated incidents, but rather indicative of the increasing lethality of violence in Rio de Janeiro in 2021 and 2022, and the rising threat to civilians.
Topic:
Crime, Elections, Violence, Civilians, Militias, Gangs, and Public Security
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Rio de Janeiro

600. Political Violence and the 2023 Nigerian Election

Author:
Andrea Carboni and Ladd Serwat
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 25 February 2023, Nigerians will elect a new president, vice president, and members of the National Assembly. Term limit legislation bars President Muhammadu Buhari from running for a third term, and the end of his presidency marks the longest democratic stretch since independence. Eighteen candidates are vying for the presidency, and at least 4,223 candidates are running for the 469 seats in the National Assembly.1 The presidential frontrunners include Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate who has surprisingly led in the pre-election polls. Two weeks after the national election, on 11 March 2023, 28 out of 36 states will also elect a new governor, with 17 incumbent governors reaching their term limits and hence barred from re-running.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria