Content Type: Commentary and Analysis / Publication Year: within 25 Years and within 5 Years

201. Halving Global Violence Starts in Our Homes and Streets

Author:: Luisa Portugal
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: In recent years, the world has seen a sharp increase in the number and intensity of armed conflicts globally. From 2020 to 2022, conflict deaths increased nearly fourfold, reaching numbers unseen since the end of the Cold War. The impacts of these wars do not stop at the battlefield; they undermine and destroy social contracts between people and states, slow and even reverse economic participation, and shatter communal bonds—leading to further injuries and deaths. Despite their impact, the multilateral ecosystem faces significant challenges and barriers in offering solutions or relief to these conflicts. Adding to the damage caused by armed conflicts is the widespread and devastating cost of criminal and interpersonal violence. It is crucial to shift the conversation on violence reduction and prevention into the development space. As member states decide during September 2024 at the Summit of Future what the Pact for the Future will look like, they should heed this call and focus on finding practical solutions for the violence that most often impacts people’s everyday lives. This new analysis, part of the CIC Perspectives series, examines the following: A development approach to reducing violence; What works to prevent and reduce violence; Four takeaways for the Summit of the Future.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Development, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Society
Political Geography:: Global Focus

202. The Taiwan election result: A strategic opportunity for a calmer Taiwan Strait

Author:: Mikael Mattlin and Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Taiwan held combined presidential and legislative elections last weekend. The international media generally expected that a win by Lai Ching-te (DPP), who in the past has favoured independence, would lead to tensions and even conflict in the Taiwan Strait. However, there are several reasons why the opposite could be the case.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Elections, and Lai Ching-te
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

203. The future of EU-Turkey relations: Transactional bargaining continues

Author:: Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Fundamental questions about Turkey’s EU path have been brushed aside for the last ten years. With enlargement back on the agenda, the EU-Turkey relationship seems to be moving towards even more transactionalism, lacking any prospect of meaningful integration.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

204. Two years of war in Ukraine: Will the West need another shock to act decisively?

Author:: Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The West is failing to provide Ukraine with sufficient resources to resist Russia’s invasion, and lacks a vision for the future of West-Russia relations. This may push Ukraine to the brink of defeat as early as 2024. Western capitals should realize the risks and stop procrastinating.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

205. Georgia’s government is playing with fire: Internal polarisation invites external interference

Author:: Sinikukka Saari
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Georgia’s government distrusts the West and democratic institutions – despite formally supporting Euro-Atlantic integration. It seeks to merge transactional foreign policy with ultra-conservative values and illiberalism. Current policies are polarising the nation, alienating the West, and making Georgia vulnerable to Russia’s interference.
Topic:: Democracy, Institutions, Polarization, Post-Soviet Space, Euroskepticism, and Eastern Neighborhood
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

206. Majority-building in the next European Parliament: The case for a more formal coalition

Author:: Andreas T. Müller
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The openness of the European People’s Party (EPP) to some far-right parties in the European Parliament has led to mistrust and conflict within the political centre. A written coalition agreement could remedy this – and even improve democracy at the EU level.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, European Parliament, and Coalition
Political Geography:: Europe

207. Defense Cooperation Agreements in northern Europe: Strengthening the United States’ global position, transatlantic relations, and regional deterrence and defense

Author:: Charly Salonius-Pasternak
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The US has concluded or updated bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreements (DCAs) with all Nordic states. These DCAs enhance regional deterrence, enable operational and tactical cooperation from day one in the event of war, and provide broader regional and global benefits.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Deterrence, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Nordic Nations, and United States of America

208. The UN Summit of the Future: Neither breakthrough nor breakdown

Author:: Katja Creutz
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The complex and interconnected governance challenges facing the world have led the UN to convene a Summit of the Future. Despite the tense international political climate, the aim is for UN member states to come together to lay out a roadmap for transforming global governance.
Topic:: United Nations, Governance, Geopolitics, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

209. Moldova’s European course: To be continued or to be reversed?

Author:: Ryhor Nizhnikau and Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Against all expectations, the pro-European forces in Moldova failed to triumph in Sunday’s election. In particular, the results of the referendum on joining the EU revealed an antagonistic division of the nation into two halves. The parliamentary election next spring could put Moldova’s European integration on hold altogether.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Regional Integration, and Eastern Neighborhood
Political Geography:: Europe and Moldova

210. Challenges to Chinese blue-water operations

Author:: Mike Sweeney
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Despite having the world’s largest navy, important questions can be asked about China’s ability to challenge the U.S. Navy on a global scale. A number of factors—geography, logistical infrastructure, force structure, and command culture—all argue that China cannot do so at this time. In particular, China would need to significantly expand the number and caliber of its overseas bases in order to support large-scale, blue-water operations by the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). China currently has just two overseas bases—at Djibouti and Cambodia—and both are of limited capacity. Absent such a basing network, the PLAN is reliant on at-sea replenishment, a capability that is inherently vulnerable in wartime. China possesses some quality at-sea replenishment vessels but not nearly in sufficient quantities to support widespread global operations. While Chinese naval aviation has shown important improvements over the last year, the PLAN does not appear to have the logistical capacity to sustain high-tempo carrier operations outside the First Island Chain for an extended period of time. Super-quiet Chinese nuclear submarines would be game-changers in terms of Chinese blue-water operations. But thus far China has not shown mastery of the requisite technologies to build boats with this capability. It would also take China several years to grow a fleet of super-quiet submarines once the necessary technological challenges have been solved. Structural issues with the Chinese economy raise new concerns about Beijing’s ability to fund a blue-water navy over the long term. Such calculations must include the expense of ship construction, but also the massive operations and maintenance budget needed to deploy a potential navy of over 400 ships.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Navy, Economy, and Submarines
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

211. No silver bullet: Aid is not a shortcut to victory for Ukraine

Author:: Michael DiMino
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Delayed or insufficient Western aid is often blamed for Ukraine’s lack of success on the battlefield. The truth is more complicated. There is no aid “silver bullet” for what ails Ukraine’s war effort. More aid alone is unlikely to make a decisive difference in the outcome of the war, especially if Ukraine’s structural disadvantages and strategic deficiencies remain unaddressed. More aid is unlikely to fundamentally change the conflict because Ukraine lacks the manpower necessary to use it to generate enough new combat power to retake lost territory. Moreover, the West does not currently possess the industrial capacity needed to fulsomely sustain an indefinite Ukrainian war effort. Russian adaptability and battlefield innovation have successfully blunted the effectiveness of several Western weapon systems. And Ukrainian doctrine and tactics remain suboptimal even in the third year of the war, meaning Kyiv has failed to employ the aid it does receive with maximal effectiveness. Neither Washington nor Kyiv has articulated a clear theory of victory for Ukraine. Western aid was always a stopgap to buy Ukraine time, not a regime-change project to bring about the dissolution of the Russian state. Instead of continuing to placate maximalist fantasies of total victory, the U.S. should advocate for a shift to a defensive strategy and openness to a negotiated settlement that ends the war, such that a sovereign and independent Ukrainian state can be preserved in the face of fighting to collapse.
Topic:: Weapons, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America

212. A new NATO agenda: Less U.S., less dependency

Author:: Benjamin Friedman
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The United States should aggressively reduce its force presence in Europe. This would be consistent with NATO’s original balancing purpose and U.S. expectations then that garrisoning Europe was a temporary expedient, not a permanent tool of U.S. dominance. The Russian threat, despite being energized by NATO expansion, is insufficient to demand the current defense effort devoted to it in Europe, whether it’s Americans or Europeans making that effort. The results of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underline this happy point: Russia has proven weaker than conventional wisdom held, and the advantages of defense evident in the war bode well for the territorial status quo NATO defends in Europe. A U.S. drawdown in Europe is unlikely to spark a European defense renaissance, but even so, the balance of power in Europe will remain intact, and the United States will be better off with the freed-up resources and reduced risks.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, Dependency, Balance of Power, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

213. Rethinking Africa Command

Author:: Mike Sweeney
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: As debate grows over U.S. policy towards Africa, consideration should be given to altering the continent’s status under the Department of Defense’s Unified Command Plan (UCP). Eliminating Africa Command (AFRICOM) under the UCP would both signify a policy shift away from a counterterrorism focus and ease the process of implementing that change within the policymaking bureaucracy. Establishing a three-star subcommand, nested under European Command (EUCOM), would still allow the United States to use force in Africa, when necessary, but would reduce the prominence of military power in U.S. policy toward the continent. AFRICOM and EUCOM essentially share much of their force structure; this unique relationship would facilitate the transition to the proposed three-star subcommand. Altering the U.S. military footprint in Africa should also be considered in the context of any changes to policy and command arrangements. Making specific recommendations at this time is complicated by the opaqueness of the current footprint.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Counter-terrorism, Africa Command (AFRICOM), and European Command (EUCOM)
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

214. A defensive approach to Ukraine military aid

Author:: Jennifer Kavanagh
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The next administration is likely to continue U.S. military aid to Ukraine to some degree, yet thus far decisions about what aid to provide have been reactive and not connected to any strategy. The United States should use its military aid to push Ukraine to adopt a defensive strategy that will be more sustainable for the Ukrainians given manpower shortfalls and more responsible and fiscally feasible for the United States, while also reducing the risk of Russian escalation. This would be in line with America’s priorities in Ukraine, including preventing a Russian victory and preserving a sovereign Ukraine at lowest possible cost and without direct involvement in the war. This strategy would also put Ukraine in a good position for a settlement that trades some land for a ceasefire and supports Ukraine’s longer-term defense. A Ukraine aid framework centered on a defensive strategy would see the U.S. provide air defense, anti-tank mines, the material and equipment to build fortifications, short-range artillery and limited short-range missile variants, small uncrewed aerial systems, and some armored vehicles for transport. In many cases, however, quantities would be limited by the needs of U.S. forces or other U.S. partners. The U.S. would not provide most types of aircraft, long-range missiles, tanks, or other weapon systems that are primarily offensive in nature and could cross a redline for Vladimir Putin.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Weapons, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America

215. Reducing the Role of Nuclear Weapons in Military Alliances

Author:: Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: This paper examines the role of nuclear weapons in military alliances, focusing on the perspectives of the so-called umbrella states—that is, allied states that do not have their own nuclear weapons but are part of the ‘extended nuclear deterrence arrangements’ of a nuclear-armed patron. After analysing allied security thinking and highlighting the underlying assumptions about nuclear deterrence, the paper subjects some of those assumptions to critical scrutiny. Taking into account regional military balances and escalation risks related to nuclear deterrence, it challenges the perceived security benefits of forward-deployed non-strategic weapons, continued support for allied nuclear doctrines based on readiness for the first use of nuclear weapons, and the assumed inevitability of nuclear second strike that underlies the practices of nuclear assurance. The goal is to open discussion on the development of a more measured approach to deterrence that would allow for minimizing the role of nuclear weapons in military alliances.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

216. Climate Change Adaptation in Areas Beyond Government Control: Opportunities and Limitations

Author:: Karen Meijer and Ann-Sophie Böhle
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: Areas beyond government control constitute a highly diverse subgroup of fragile and conflict-affected settings. As a result of conflict and weak governance, many of these areas have become more vulnerable to climate change. Their communities have been left with limited capacity to respond to changing climatic conditions and extreme weather events. These settings pose unique challenges for external engagement and have, therefore, long been overlooked in adaptation efforts. This SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security explores both opportunities for and limitations of climate change adaptation in areas beyond government control. By highlighting the diversity of these settings and the range of possible adaptation measures, the paper proposes a framework with four guiding questions designed to help identify context-appropriate adaptation options.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Governance, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

217. Unveiling Challenges and Gaps in Climate Finance in Conflict Areas

Author:: Karen Meijer and Abeer S. Ahmad
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: This SIPRI Insights addresses challenges related to climate finance distribution in conflict-affected countries, where vulnerabilities to climate change are significantly exacerbated. Conflict reduces the ability of populations to adapt, making effective climate finance even more critical. Despite increasing global climate finance commitments, conflict-affected countries consistently receive disproportionately low amounts of per capita climate adaptation official development assistance (ODA) compared to non-conflict-affected countries with similar income levels and climate vulnerabilities. The paper’s analysis, covering both bilateral and multilateral ODA flows between 2015 and 2021, highlights significant disparities in per capita climate adaptation funding. For example, small island developing states receive over US$100 per capita annually, while many conflict-affected countries receive less than $1. Methodological challenges such as those related to ‘regional’ or ‘unspecified’ funds and limited data transparency prevent accurate assessments. The paper highlights the need for improved transparency, equitable redistribution of funds and stronger donor–recipient coordination to ensure climate finance reaches the most vulnerable populations, especially in conflict settings.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, Conflict, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Global Focus

218. U.S. foreign policy, Cold War history, and history of capitalism: An interview with Fritz Bartel.

Author:: Fritz Bartel and Asensio Robles
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: It is an exciting time for Cold War historiography. Long gone are debates that were once central to the field, such as those about the origins of the Cold War and the responsibilities for its emergence. Perhaps the most important aspect of the Cold War for our present, some historians now argue, was not its outbreak but its end. Why did the Eastern bloc collapse in the late 1980s? How was it possible for this collapse to occur without triggering major international and domestic turmoil (Romania’s case notwithstanding)? And why did neoliberalism prevail over other economic paradigms in the new post-socialist democracies? Answering all these questions has become an urgent task in light of today's war in Ukraine, the continuing rise of populism, the growing delegitimization of liberal democracies, and the exhaustion of neoliberalism and globalization as reliable agents of growth in post-industrial societies. These are precisely the three big questions that Fritz Bartel sets out to answer in The Triumph of Broken Promises: The end of the Cold War and the Rise of Neoliberalism (Cambridge, Ma.: Harvard University Press, 2022). Bartel’s book offers a picture of the end of the Cold War that has at its core a particular interpretation of the nature of the East-West conflict. Eastern communism and Western capitalism shared the same base: the Cold War was a politico-economic contest between two industrial ideologies over how best to ensure the continued social and economic well-being of their own populations. As such, both systems were largely successful during the golden years of post-war economic growth. However, if Western capitalism ultimately won the Cold War, Bartel argues, it was because Western liberal democracies proved to be much more flexible and capable of breaking their socio-economic promises in an increasingly globalized world than the Eastern Bloc after the 1973 oil shock. It was not geopolitics that ultimately decided the end of the Cold War, but rather the different strategies that East and West chose in a world increasingly shaped by oil, international finance, the exhaustion of extensive economic growth, and globalization. I had the pleasure of interviewing Bartel on December 5, 2023. What follows is a summary of our discussion about the origins of The Triumph of Broken Promises, its place in today's literature on U.S. foreign policy and Cold War history, and the lessons this book might have for our turbulent times.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, Capitalism, Neoliberalism, Interview, and Historiography
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

219. The History of Modern Sports in South America: An Interview with Matthew Brown

Author:: Matthew Brown and Salvador Lima
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: In addition to this moment as the starting point of the FIFA World Cup’s trajectory in becoming the most widely viewed sporting event in the world, to historian Matthew Brown, it is the culmination of a long story that begins around the mid-19th century with the diffusion and development of modern sports in the South American continent. Brown is a Professor of Latin American History at the University of Bristol, and his latest work is Sports in South America (Yale University Press: 2023), a comprehensive examination of the sporting cultures in the South American republics from the 1860s until the 1930s, an extraordinary story that explores intertwined histories of sports, globalisation, politics and culture. While conventional narratives have focused on British pioneers as the great ones responsible for introducing organised sports to the region and on football as the preeminent sport in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, Brown expands on these previous trends. He shows how indigenous and colonial sporting cultures existed long before the influence of the British informal empire and provided the foundation for South American countries' global recognition as soccer strongholds. In a period marked by the obsession with the idea of ‘progress’, South American elites saw the institutionalisation of modern sports as an opportunity to claim their place among the ‘civilised nations’. Thus, Sports in South America significantly contributes to the field by addressing the relevance of sporting cultures in constructing national identities and political discourse in the region. According to Brown, such research has been an adventure that implied several years of archive travel and immersion in South America's sporting landscapes and experiences, as he notes in the introduction of his work, “engaging with contemporary sporting environments, whether spectating, walking or playing, has contributed a hard-to-quantify element to the book” (Brown, 15).
Topic:: History, Sports, Interview, FIFA, and Soccer
Political Geography:: South America

220. Pax Economica: An Interview with Marc-William Palen

Author:: Seokju Oh and Marc-William Palen
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: In his new book Pax Economica: Left-Wing Visions of a Free Trade World (Princeton University Press, 2024), historian Marc-William Palen offers a counter-history of free trade as an ideology and policy. In the nineteenth century, before it became a cherished possession of the Right, free trade was proudly claimed as their own by Left-wing activists, intellectuals, and politicians, those who were unswervingly committed to equality for all and peace among nations. Palen recovers this forgotten history of the “Left-wing free traders” of the late-nineteenth century, showing how liberal radicals, socialists, feminists, and Christian pacifists all viewed free trade as the key antidote to the social problems they encountered. Palen also upends the conventional understanding of the world of the late nineteenth and the early-twentieth centuries and argues that the fin-de-siècle was not the “Golden Age’ of the First Globalization, but actually the “Iron Age” of market enclosures and imperial competition. In February 2024, I had a great pleasure to discuss Pax Economica with Palen. Below is an edited version of the conversation.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Markets, History, Free Trade, and Interview
Political Geography:: Global Focus

221. The Interwar World: Where, When, and How?

Author:: Poorvi Bellur, Andrew Denning, and Heidi Tworek
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: This interview engages the co-editors of the new edited volume, The Interwar World (Routledge 2023), Andrew Denning and Heidi J. S. Tworek. Expansive both in its breadth as well as in methodological scope, the volume engages more than 50 authors around the critical questions of where and when was the "interwar", as well as the more existential question of the usefulness of this framework of historical temporality and spatiality. The scholarly value of such an endeavour lies perhaps most acutely in its collaborative ethos, at a time when the professionalization of the academy seems only to further ossify the silos of spatial, temporal, and theoretical specializations. Thematically organized, the framing of this volume seems to push its contributors to engage with broader communities of historical scholarship and subsequently be unflinchingly self-reflexive in their use of the "interwar" as an analytic. I had a chance to interview the architects of this volume, Andrew Denning and Heidi Tworek, about the impetus behind such a massive project as well as some of the challenges and questions they faced in both in its planning and its ultimate execution.
Topic:: History, Interview, and Interwar Period
Political Geography:: Global Focus

222. The Fiftieth Anniversary of India’s Peaceful Nuclear Explosion: An Interview with Jayita Sarkar

Author:: Marc Reyes and Jayita Sarkar
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: Today, May 18, 2024, marks the fiftieth anniversary of India’s peaceful nuclear explosion or PNE. To mark the occasion, the Toynbee Prize Foundation facilitated a conversation between historian Jayita Sarkar and myself. Dr. Sarkar explained what the PNE was and how it shaped Indian and nuclear history. In addition to the PNE, Dr. Sarkar and I also spoke about her acclaimed 2022 book, Ploughshares and Swords: India’s Nuclear Program in the Global Cold War which received the Bernard S. Cohn Book Prize from the Association for Asian Studies and Honorable Mention for Global Development Studies Book Award from the International Studies Association. The book can be freely read through its publisher, Cornell University Press, and here is a link to read my January 2023 Toynbee review of Ploughshares and Swords. Below is an edited version of our conversation.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, History, Global South, and Interview
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

223. Finding Law in the History of Global Violence: An Interview with Lauren Benton

Author:: Lauren Benton and Daniel R. Quiroga-Villamarín
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: Violence is, in the public imagination, the law’s radical Other. Brutality and cruelty, we tend to believe, are elements that flourish in law’s absence. Not only is the appearance of violence a symptom of the absence of order, but its bloody outbursts are taken to be utterly meaningless. The narrative of the emergence of “modern” law —both within, and beyond, the nation-state— is usually that of the triumph of reason and deliberation over violence. This progression supposedly entailed the prohibition (or at least, the domestication) of force in local and global politics. Against this rather rosy narrative, Lauren Benton invites us to read the ways in which violence and law act, together, to cement claims of global order. Benton does so by placing so-called “small wars” at “the center of a new history” of interpolity relations (p. xii). Instead of seeing them as mere “manifestations of insurgency and counterinsurgency,” she studies how a variety of practices (“raiding and other sporadic violence as well as conflicts that were small in scale, remained undeclared, or lasted for relatively brief periods”) were central to how European empires justified the legality of their expansion over the globe (p. 7). Such “small” wars, in fact, could be quite “big” in scale or “long” over time. What matters is that all these instances of violence oscillated at the “threshold of war and peace” (p. 8) —and, as such, raised thorny questions about their legal basis all long the imperial chain of command. The productive ambiguities offered by this “law of neither war nor peace” offered enormous opportunities for those who knew who to exploit them —as Benton shows by tracing how imperial agents negotiated this threshold at different times and places, from the Iberian Conquistadores “discovering” the Americas all the way to their successors in our own day and age (p. 184-185). The contours of this vague threshold were not, as Benton argues, predetermined by the metropolitan laws of expanding European empires. Pushing against histories of “diffusion” of laws of war from the West to the Rest (p. 9), Benton instead analyzes how agents in different imperial locales —for instance, in both the colonial frontier and heartland— raised arguments about the legality of violence within and beyond the threshold (p. 60). Moreover, “not just Europeans, and not just law-trained elites” were productively exploiting the ambiguities of this threshold (p. 17). The book is replete with cases in which non-lawyers (for example, a British captain patrolling distant seas) or local elites (for instance, rulers in South Asia) were active interpreters of the law applicable to the violence they encountered (p. 146). By bringing together a variety of materials from different continents and periods, Benton provides a thoroughly global account of the interpenetration of law and violence in the making of empire —past, present, and perhaps even future.
Topic:: International Law, Law, Violence, Interview, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

224. Historicizing a planetary future: A discussion with Emma Rothschild on the convergence of climate science and historical thinking in the “1800 Histories” project.

Author:: Glenda Sluga and Heidi Tworek
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: TPF Executive board members Glenda Sluga and Heidi J.S. Tworek interviewed Emma Rothschild on her latest project “1800 Histories”; a collaborative effort to bring together climate science methodologies and various micro-histories of methane production, and to push historical scholarship towards a global history of climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, History, Interview, and Climate Science
Political Geography:: Global Focus

225. Colonizing Kashmir: An interview with Hafsa Kanjwal

Author:: Mahia Bashir and Hafsa Kanjwal
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: Joining a new wave of critical scholarship on global decolonization, Hafsa Kanjwal’s 2023 monograph Colonizing Kashmir: State-building Under Indian Occupation(Stanford University Press) offers a compelling and provocative account of Indian state-building in Kashmir in the aftermath of the British withdrawal and argues that independent India’s attempts at state-building in Kashmir were fundamentally colonial. In recasting the Indian national project in Kashmir as a colonial enterprise and highlighting the role of Kashmir’s client regimes in this process, Kanjwal lays bare the “politics of life” that was central to bringing Kashmir within the Indian national orbit without the popular consent of its people. Ultimately, this account offers a critique of the liberatory character of narratives around decolonization and offers an alternative lens to understand national consolidation in the aftermath of the second World War.
Topic:: History, Decolonization, Interview, and Colonization
Political Geography:: South Asia and Kashmir

226. The Yemen Annual Review 2023

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) dominated Yemeni politics over the last year. The negotiations began as backchannel discussions in October 2022 after the Houthis resisted UN pressure to renew a truce first agreed in April 2022 by making a series of eleventh-hour demands. The talks continued despite Houthi attacks on oil terminals in southern Yemen in late 2022 that effectively put the internationally recognized government under a form of economic blockade. As the months progressed, the government’s increasingly dire economic situation pressured it to accept the Saudi policy of seeking a settlement with Houthi authorities, seemingly at almost any price. The broad terms of a Saudi-Houthi agreement first became public in January, when international media reported that Saudi Arabia had agreed in principle to pay outstanding civil servant salaries in Houthi-run areas, including those of military and security personnel, and to remove restrictions on entry points, including the ports of Hudaydah and Sana’a airport. In return, Saudi Arabia wanted guarantees that there would be no more attacks on its territory and the creation of a buffer zone along the border, an end to the Houthi blockade of southern ports and the siege of Taiz, and for direct Yemeni-Yemeni talks to follow any deal. Within a few months, these proposals had morphed into a comprehensive roadmap for peace involving a six-month ceasefire, to be followed by three months of government-Houthi discussions on managing a transitional phase of two years, during which a final resolution of the conflict would be negotiated. A prisoner swap in April arranged by the International Committee of the Red Cross in Switzerland saw around 973 people released, including high-profile figures, and seemed to augur rapid progress. But Saudi Arabia appeared to overplay its hand when Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed al-Jaber led a delegation on a much-feted trip to Sana’a in April. The Houthis again raised their demands, arguing that an agreement must be signed first with Riyadh alone as a party to the conflict, and that Saudi Arabia should agree to pay compensation for war damage and finance postwar reconstruction. Al-Jaber left Sana’a without an agreement, but the basic terms of a formal de-escalation and path toward a resolution of the conflict were nevertheless laid down. Saudi Arabia’s problem now was how to manage resistance from the government’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). Ultimately, it was kept in the dark about the details of the proposed arrangement for most of the year, even its chairman Rashad al-Alimi, who was expected to sign off at the end of the process. A Houthi delegation met Saudi officials during a hajj pilgrimage trip in June – posing for photos with Defense Minister Khaled bin Salman – sending the signal that a formal agreement normalizing Saudi-Houthi ties and initiating a Yemeni-Yemeni peace process had become a question not of if, but when. A complication that emerged early on was US reservations about a peace deal following the Saudi-Iran rapprochement brokered by China in March. This seemed to mark China’s arrival as a diplomatic player in the region, putting the Americans on notice that another global superpower was interested in challenging its role in the Middle East, including, perhaps, in Yemen. There was an irony here, in that rising criticism of Saudi Arabia’s conduct during the war in the US Congress, and threats to halt arms sales, played a role in bringing the Saudi leadership around the idea of getting out of Yemen and ending a foreign military adventure that had damaged its global standing.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Investment, Houthis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

227. The Yemen Review Quarterly: January-March 2024

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Yemen’s political and economic situation worsened in the first months of the year as the impacts of the Red Sea crisis, which began in November, began to manifest themselves. Peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) were effectively placed on hold, and the United States broadened its response to the Houthi attacks, launching strikes alongside the UK against Houthi targets inside Yemen and designating the Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group (SDGT), which came into effect on February 16. The designation could impact not only Houthi military and economic activities but also risks a further stranglehold on international humanitarian work in Houthi-run territories, as banks and exchange firms stop dealing with Sana’a-based entities. In late March, Houthi authorities issued a 100-rial coin to replace dilapidated notes, escalating the economic warfare between the two rival central banks. Denouncing the move as illegal, the Aden central bank branch prohibited the coins’ circulation, but the real fear is that this is a trial balloon for a series of currency roll-outs that will end with Sana’a printing its own banknotes, possibly with foreign help, as rebel authorities did in Libya in 2019. Prime Minister Maeen Abdelmalek Saeed finally stepped down, succeeded by Foreign Minister Ahmed Awadh bin Mubarak on February 5. Yemen’s ambassador in Riyadh, Shaya al-Zindani, was belatedly appointed to the vacant foreign minister post on March 26. Neither man is popular with the PLC. Combined with the government’s strained finances, this could hamper their effectiveness. Houthi attacks on foreign shipping and US-UK attacks continued more or less unabated, causing in one case the sinking of a ship carrying fertilizer and diesel fuel. US-UK airstrikes have killed at least 37 on the Houthi side, and reportedly some Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers. After talks with Omani officials in Muscat in early April, the US Yemen envoy appeared to hold out hope of a resolution, suggesting the sanctions would be lifted if the attacks stopped – as tensions rose again between Iran and Israel, with possible implications for Yemen. Tensions also rose on frontlines inside Yemen as Houthi and government-aligned forces reinforced their military presence in several areas, including Hudaydah and Marib. The US-UK strikes also heightened the repressive atmosphere in Sana’a and elsewhere, as Houthi authorities cracked down in areas near mobile launch sites and introduced a new law against support for Israel that is already being used as another cudgel to crush dissent. Al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch announced the loss of its leader Khaled Batarfi in March, who died after several months of illness. He was replaced by Saad al-Awlaqi, a senior Yemeni figure with strong tribal ties in Shabwa who is popular among younger members of the group but whose ties with Iran-based Saif al-Adel, the de facto leader of the global organization, appear to be tense. Al-Qaeda also lost Saif al-Adel’s son, known as Ibn al-Madani, reportedly as a result of a fire in the place where he was staying in Marib, and the group’s lead drone expert Khaled al-Sana’ani also died in an apparent traffic incident – incidents that have raised speculation of possible internal skulduggery as Al-Awlaqi settles into his new role.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Politics, and Houthis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

228. The Yemen Review Quarterly: April-June 2024

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Houthi intelligence arrested dozens of local and international aid workers and UN and non-government organization (NGO) staff in early June, alleging they were part of a US-Israeli conspiracy to undermine Yemeni society. The detainees were paraded on television and forced to give scripted confessions. The Houthis seem to have targeted monitoring and evaluation workers, perhaps to better control information on the economic and humanitarian situation. While the group continues to enjoy public support for its Red Sea attacks, pressure has been mounting over unpaid salaries, a deteriorating economic situation, and new banking restrictions. The detentions likely serve both to intimidate and to afford leverage vis-à-vis international institutions: a week before the arrests, 44 people were sentenced to death on similar charges of espionage.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Economy, and Houthis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

229. The Yemen Review Quarterly: July-September 2024

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: On July 19, a Houthi drone reached Tel Aviv, killing one person and wounding ten, the first time the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) has inflicted casualties in an attack against Israel. Israel responded the next day with airstrikes on the port of Hudaydah, destroying infrastructure and fuel stores and killing six workers. Dozens of others were hospitalized with severe burns. The Houthis unsuccessfully targeted Tel Aviv again on September 15, and Israel undertook further airstrikes on port and power facilities in Hudaydah governorate two weeks later, killing four and injuring 40. There is concern that the strikes will interrupt the flow of humanitarian aid through Hudaydah and that the loss of fuel reserves could lead to shortages in Houthi-held areas.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Natural Disasters, Economy, and Houthis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Red Sea

230. Is the G7 still relevant?

Author:: Raffaele Trombetta
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In the first of our new Expert Analysis series, former Italian Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Raffaele Trombetta, draws on his career experience to answer the question of whether the G7 is still relevant in today’s international order. Detailing a narrative of the G7’s history, confronting its challenges, and addressing its common criticisms, this paper deals with the alternatives (G20 and BRICS), as well as where the G7’s interests should lie in future relations with China and the African nations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, G20, G7, BRICS, and International Order
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Europe, and Asia

231. The Future of U.S.-Turkish Ties: A New Relationship, Not a Reset

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Despite the welcome news on Sweden, the old Turkey is not coming back, but Erdogan’s apparent shift to legacy-building mode will give Washington opportunities to leverage his influence abroad. On January 23, Turkey’s parliament ratified Sweden’s accession to NATO, opening the path for Stockholm’s eventual membership in the alliance. The Biden administration attaches great importance to NATO expansion amid Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, and while the Swedish membership bid must still await a vote by Hungary’s parliament, Turkey’s decision is a major step forward. Previously, Ankara had held off greenlighting Stockholm’s application for nearly two years after it was submitted in May 2022, and the issue became symbolic of deeper dysfunction in U.S.-Turkish ties. This week’s parliamentary vote promises to end that epoch, giving both Washington and Ankara an opportunity to chart a new course even as other differences persist.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, Sweden, and United States of America

232. Beijing’s Passive-Aggressive Middle East Policy

Author:: Michael Singh
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The real threat to U.S. interests in the region isn’t rising Chinese influence, but the erosion of Washington's influence. Will China broker a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? It is a question nobody is asking, because the answer is obvious—not a chance. Yet after Beijing hosted Iran-Saudi talks that led those two rivals to re-establish diplomatic relations in March 2023, some observers wondered if China had supplanted the U.S. as the Middle East’s diplomatic broker. Since Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre, China has put such illusions to rest: its conduct shows that it is less interested in the success of its own initiatives than in the failure of Washington’s. The real threat to U.S. interests in the Mideast isn’t rising Chinese influence, but the erosion of our own...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

233. The Impact of the War in Gaza on Israel-Jordan Cooperation

Author:: Saud Al-Sharafat
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Gaza war’s impact on Jordan has been significant and at times uncontrolled, with a primary focus on demands to halt all forms of “bilateral cooperation” with Israel. However, the implementation of the energy for water project is likely only a matter of time, although contingent on cessation of hostilities. The war in Gaza has cast a dark shadow over the promising water and energy cooperation projects between Jordan and Israel. Water and energy are among the most economically and politically sensitive sectors in contemporary Jordan due to the country’s chronic water shortage and the difficulty of securing energy sources for local use. Jordan imports more than 96 percent of its energy needs, with an annual import bill exceeding $3 billion, according to official statistics. The Gaza war has had a direct impact on Jordanian public opinion, with increasing demands that the country withdraws from all its commitments, treaties, and agreements with Israel and halt all forms of cooperation. So far, however, it appears these demands have disrupted only one project, Project Prosperity—or energy for water agreement—which is sponsored by the United Arab Emirates with U.S. approval. Although the project has been suspended, it will likely resume after the war ends, since both parties have an interest in this type of cooperation. Indeed, despite the current tensions, this type of coordination is almost inevitable given the respective situations of both countries, and as one of the most important means of interconnection and networking that can help mitigate armed crises and conflicts between them.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Water, Public Opinion, Energy, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Jordan

234. Egypt Polling Shows Rise in Positive Views of Hamas; Iran-Backed Groups and the Muslim Brotherhood Remain Unpopular

Author:: Mohamed Abdelaziz
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While Hamas has experienced a surge of popular support in Egypt, these views have not impacted those who say that they have a positive view of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran’s proxies, namely Hezbollah and the Houthis, remained deeply unpopular among Egyptians. Arecent public opinion survey of Egyptian citizens, commissioned by the Washington Institute and conducted in November/December by a regional commercial firm, revealed that after years of adopting a negative view towards Hamas, three-quarters of Egyptians now view the movement positively, demonstrating the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on Egyptian public opinion. The majority of Egyptians continue to reject ties with Israel and Israelis, while Iran’s proxies remain unpopular, while the majority of Egyptians believe that the United States can put an end to the war in Gaza. Regarding the United States’ role in the ongoing war in Gaza, the current poll showed that more than three-quarters of Egyptians agreed that “the U.S. is still in the best position to help end the war in Gaza, even if I disagree with its policies.” However, Egyptians are currently divided on the proposition that “We cannot count on the U.S. these days, so we should look more to other nations like Russia or China as partners.” While 57% of Egyptians agreed with this proposition, 42% disagreed. In terms of the role that Arab countries should play in the ongoing conflict, the current poll showed mixed views. A significant majority of Egyptians (97%) demanded that Arab states take a tough stand against Israel and “immediately sever all diplomatic, political, economic, and any other contacts with Israel, in protest against its military action in Gaza.” Yet although not unanimous, over two thirds (69%) of Egyptians likewise agreed that “Arab governments should take a more active role in Palestinian-Israeli peacemaking, offering both sides incentives to take more moderate positions.” Moreover, an overwhelming majority (96%) of Egyptians believed that their country should provide more humanitarian aid to the Palestinians, even if that requires some practical coordination with Israel. Notably, while Hamas has experienced a surge of popularity—in line with significant jumps among other Arab publics polled—these views have not impacted those who say that they have a positive view of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). The current Egyptian government finds both the Muslim Brotherhood itself and its Palestinian offshoot threatening to domestic politics. For almost eight years, since the release of the Fall 2015 poll results, where Hamas received negative scores, the majority of Egyptians demonstrated a negative attitude towards Hamas. In contrast, the current poll shows that three-quarters of Egyptians view Hamas positively, while less than a quarter hold a negative view. Likewise, the large majority expressed agreement with the view that the war in
Topic:: Public Opinion, Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood, Polls, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Palestine, and Egypt

235. How Washington Emboldened the Houthis

Author:: Noam Raydan and Grant Rumley
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Greater decisiveness would have shortened the conflict, lessened the toll on global maritime trade, and reassured U.S. partners in the region and beyond. Since the Houthis launched their assault on global shipping in November, the United States and its partners have scrambled for ways to restore calm and commerce to the Red Sea. First, on December 18, Washington assembled a maritime coalition designed to boost the U.S. presence in the area and promote regional security. Then, in January, the United States started intercepting Iranian military shipments bound for the Houthis and issued multiple warnings to the group. Finally, after nearly two months of continuous attacks in the Red Sea, the United States and the United Kingdom launched a barrage of strikes against the Houthis’ facilities. But these attacks have not halted or seemingly slowed the onslaught. The group has continued to lob missiles and drones, prompting continued strikes by Washington and its allies...
Topic:: Maritime, Houthis, Shipping, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

236. Tunisia at the Crossroads: What Role for the United States in a Multipolar World?

Author:: Ghazi Ben Ahmed
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The United States, in recognizing the limits of its traditional “bloc-building” approach, faces the imperative to adapt to a multipolar reality. Embracing multipolarity as a fundamental principle of its foreign policy could pave the way for more flexible and effective international engagements. In today’s global landscape, the clear-cut divisions of the Cold War era have given way to a complex web of challenges and a multipolar world marked by competitive dynamics. This shift demands a nuanced approach from the United States, a move away from seeking dominance through large-scale coalitions against adversaries like China, since such strategies risk escalating tensions in a world that lacks the bipolar stability of the past. In this global reconfiguration, the role of “swing countries” like Tunisia gains unprecedented importance. In the midst of North Africa's political upheaval, countries like Tunisia stand at a critical crossroads, evaluating the merits of their longstanding alliances with Western nations against the enticing prospects of deepening relations with Eastern powers, particularly Russia and China. Against this backdrop, the United States has yet to articulate a definitive stance on engaging with nations such as Tunisia, where authoritarian tendencies are on the rise and anti-Western sentiments increasingly pronounced. This ambiguity raises important questions about Washington’s strategic approach in a region caught between historical affiliations and the lure of new partnerships.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Partnerships, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: North Africa, North America, Tunisia, and United States of America

237. A Pathway to Addiction: Tracing Drug-Trafficking Networks in Lebanon’s Roumieh Prison

Author:: Fatima al-Othman
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Roumieh’s drug networks have been an ongoing and pervasive challenge for Lebanon. Over the course of a single year in Lebanon’s Roumieh prison, an upstanding young Syrian doctor referred to here as “Maher”— detained in an attempt to join his family in Lebanon—became a patient in need of rehabilitation for drug addiction. Maher’s descent into drug use while in prison exemplifies the much larger problem of drug smuggling and consumption for which Roumieh prison is becoming increasingly notorious in Lebanon. Lebanon’s largest prison is located in Roumieh, Matn District, east of Beirut, and usually houses about 5,500 inmates. Considered one of the most overcrowded prisons, Roumieh houses both pre-trial prisoners and those who have been convicted. It has separate sections for young teens, women, and men. Given its large size and testimonies as to the prison’s pervasive drug networks, this prison is becoming a contributor to Lebanon’s struggle with drug addiction in its own right.
Topic:: Crime, Prisons/Penal Systems, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

238. The Islamic State on the March in Africa

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Local branches now control territory in Mali, Somalia, and Mozambique, setting the stage for new foreign fighter mobilizations, resource extraction opportunities, and perhaps even external operations against the West. Nearly five years after losing territorial control in its core areas of Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State is once again racking up territorial gains around Africa. In Mali, IS forces seized portions of the rural eastern Menaka region and the Ansongo district in southern Gao last year, while foreign fighters reportedly became more interested in traveling to Wilayat Sahel, the group’s self-styled “Sahel Province.” Elsewhere, IS “provinces” in Somalia and Mozambique have taken over various towns in the Puntland and Cabo Delgado regions over the past two months, further destabilizing the area and in some cases jeopardizing important natural gas projects.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Foreign Fighters, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:: Africa

239. A Libyan Solution to a Libyan Challenge

Author:: Moin Kikhia
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Perhaps now is the time for the United Nations to step back. It is also time for our leaders, from East and West, to recognize that a joint way forward is possible. The eyes of the world may be fixed on Gaza, with Ukraine and the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping also jostling for attention. But there is another country which the world should be watching intently. Libya is of key geostrategic importance. Five times larger than Germany, it occupies almost 2,000 kilometers of strategically sensitive Mediterranean coastline. It is also a conduit route for huge numbers of desperate migrants and refugees heading for Europe, with over 700,000 clustering along its shores. Libya also has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa today–a vital concern as the Ukraine conflict continues to threaten the security of Europe’s energy supplies. But it is also a country divided by guns and politics, with two competing governments dividing East and West, each backed and militarily supported by a range of competing foreign powers. In early 2021, the Government of National Unity (GNU) based in the West was put in place through a United Nations-backed process as an interim administration which was supposed to deliver democratic national elections in December of that same year, with the intention of establishing a more permanent Libyan government. Yet three years later the GNU remains in place in Tripoli. It justifies this persistence by arguing that the country is not ready for elections, and it still enjoys a grudging degree of international recognition due to its initial remit.
Topic:: United Nations, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Government of National Unity (GNU)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

240. Are Azerbaijan and Armenia Heading to Peace?

Author:: Anna Borshchevskaya
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: New regional and international factors are creating conditions conducive to ending their decades-long conflict, with potentially important consequences for Iran, the Ukraine war, and Turkey. Against the backdrop of the Gaza war, the escalation of Iran and its proxies across the Middle East, and Russia’s war in Ukraine, the South Caucasus is quietly undergoing a profound transformation. Armenia and Azerbaijan are slowly moving towards signing a peace treaty. If they do, this outcome would have profound implications for the South Caucasus and Russia, Europe, and Iran. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is both ethnic and territorial and has spun for over thirty years. Specifically, the dispute is over Nagorno-Karabakh (or Artsakh as Armenians call it), internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but until recently controlled by a breakaway separatist ethnic Armenian regime backed by the Armenian government. This is the longest-running conflict in the post-Soviet space, one of several so-called “frozen conflicts” on Russia’s periphery. In the last several years, observers periodically declared that a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan was imminent, but it never materialised. However, there are several reasons why this time may be different.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Peacebuilding, and Frozen Conflict
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

241. Sudanese Women Trapped Between Conflict and Political Marginalization in Peace Negotiations

Author:: Areej Elhag
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Now more than ever, it is crucial to effectively include women's issues in peace talks and transitional negotiations, ensuring that their representation is proportionate to their realities and contributions to society. In the ongoing war in Sudan, there is an insufficiently narrated tragedy—the plight of women who are paying a hefty price for this war and are simultaneously being kept from the table in the discussion of how this war can end. International Women's Month coincides with a difficult period in Sudan, where women are facing various forms of violence and violations, including rape, sexual assault, kidnapping and the loss of providers. This is all occurring in a context marked by extreme poverty and lack of medical facilities, especially those related to sexual and reproductive health. The war that erupted on April 15, 2023 between the Sudanese army and Rapid Support Forces has led to a humanitarian crisis that UN reports have ranked among the largest globally—stating that nearly 8 million people have been displaced due to the war, 88 percent of whom are women and children. There are more than 4 million women and girls at risk of sexual assaults, and alarming reports have appeared of women being sold in markets in Sudan. The painful irony is that Sudanese women were at the forefront of the Sudanese revolution that overthrew Omar al-Bashir's government on April 11, 2019. Despite their contributions and sacrifices, they found themselves marginalized and excluded from decision-making positions in the subsequent transitional government. The promises of allocating 40 percent of the Sudanese parliament’s seats for women remained unfulfilled. When the actual figures emerged, they reflected a failure to meet Sudanese women's aspirations and acknowledge their vital role in society and the political process.
Topic:: Women, Negotiation, Marginalization, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

242. Navigating Cybersecurity and Surveillance: Iran's Dual Strategy for National Security

Author:: Nima Khorrami
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While Iranian officials acknowledge the significance of cyber tools and AI for foreign policy, they are acutely aware of the country’s financial and scientific limitations. Discussions and debates surrounding the utilization and significance of cyberspace and artificial intelligence in Iran primarily revolve around two key perspectives: viewing them as integral components of national security strategy, and understanding cyber capabilities and AI as essential tools for safeguarding national interests. Within the context of Tehran’s extensively publicized forward defense doctrine, it is reasonable to expect that Tehran would develop (AI assisted) offensive cyber capabilities, allowing it to infiltrate its adversaries’ systems and execute preemptive actions against perceived threats. A critical prerequisite for doing so, in turn, would be to put in place robust surveillance capabilities which can alarm the officials of any potential incoming attack. However, available evidence suggests a dire lack of such capabilities not least because Iran’s critical infrastructure has been the target of frequent cyberattacks, allegedly originating from Israel.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Cybersecurity, and Surveillance
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

243. U.S. Returnees from Syria Reveal Much About the Repatriation Challenge

Author:: Devorah Margolin
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The latest U.S. repatriation is an important model for the international community to follow, but much work still needs to be done on resolving the precarious detainee dilemma before the situation in northeast Syria deteriorates further. On May 7, the United States repatriated eleven Americans and one noncitizen from northeast Syria, its largest repatriation of individuals affiliated with the Islamic State (IS) to date. The group included Brandy Salman and her nine U.S.-born children (five of whom are now adults), as well as two minor children of Abdelhamid al-Madioum, who was repatriated in 2020 and pleaded guilty to supporting terrorism a year later. Notably, one of the two Madioum children is a U.S. citizen and the other is not. The move brings the total number of Americans repatriated to fifty-one. Between 2013 and 2019, an estimated 300 Americans joined or attempted to join IS and other jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq—part of a wave of more than 53,000 men, women, and minors from roughly eighty countries who did the same. Since the fall of the IS territorial “caliphate” in March 2019, successive U.S. administrations have led the charge in encouraging these countries to repatriate their citizens. Although the number of people involved in this week’s repatriation is small, their cases set a potent precedent and illustrate the urgency of accelerating the pace—while also showing why the process has been such a challenge.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Islamic State, Detention, Repatriation, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

244. North Africa in an Era of Great Power Competition: Challenges and Opportunities for the United States

Author:: Anna Borshchevskaya, Louis Dugit-Gros, Ben Fishman, Sabina Henneberg, and Grant Rumley
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Washington can demonstrate its decisive edge in areas like climate change remediation and economic development, while highlighting the many dangers posed by partnership with Russia and China. This week, Tunisia’s President Kais Saied will be among the leaders attending the tenth China–Arab States Cooperation Forum in Beijing. The event deserves U.S. attention, even as foreign policy minds remain focused on Ukraine and Gaza, because North African countries are strategically significant to U.S. defense and economic interests. Viewed through the lens of great power competition, China generally advances its economic interests by developing local infrastructure (e.g., ports), whereas the other main U.S. competitor—Russia—favors a security-based approach, supporting whatever actor it believes will help advance its goals (e.g., Gen. Khalifa Haftar in Libya). Such inroads threaten American interests and require responses that address the region both holistically and state-by-state. In this Policy Note, five experts argue for more robust U.S. engagement in North Africa against the anti-liberal designs of Beijing and Moscow. An effective approach, they contend, would amplify the benefits of cooperation in areas like climate change remediation and economic development, while highlighting the dangers posed by America’s rivals to national growth, freedom, and—especially in the case of China—sovereignty.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Sovereignty, Strategic Competition, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Russia, China, North Africa, and United States of America

245. Suwayda Protests Continue Despite Growing Pressure

Author:: Ishtar Al Shami
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The protest movement’s ability to weather pressures from the Assad regime has allowed Suwayda to remain an impressive display of solidarity, tenacity, and bravery, alongside a willingness after over a decade of conflict in Syria to still demand a better future.
Topic:: Social Movement, Protests, Syrian War, and Druze
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and Suwayda

246. A New Era in Iraq’s Relations with the West?

Author:: Selin Uysal and Devorah Margolin
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Amid growing pressure to dissolve the coalition and withdraw troops, the United States and its partners should continue pursuing good relations with Baghdad—but this time with a lighter footprint and increased regional cooperation. At Baghdad’s request, the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) has been ordered to cease operations in December 2025, following a previous decision to shut down the UN team charged with investigating the Islamic State’s crimes in Iraq (UNITAD). Meanwhile, Baghdad plans to close the country’s remaining camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs), first opened at the height of the war against IS. More broadly, it seeks to normalize its diplomatic activism in the region, which recently included mediating rapprochement talks between Turkey and the Syrian regime. Despite the international support and military cooperation that have defined Western relations with Iraq in the post-Saddam era, Baghdad has begun to reevaluate longstanding arrangements. Washington and its partners should follow suit, scrutinizing the current basis of relations with Iraq amid changes in the local and regional environment, while simultaneously preserving the relationship's most beneficial aspects.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Displacement, and Interstate Cooperation
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

247. Renavigating a Soft Power Relationship Between the West and Tunisia

Author:: Oussama Boudhrioua
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Without a sea change, U.S. and European soft power will continue to erode in Tunisia at a moment of increasing crisis for the country. For decades, Tunisians have viewed their country’s relationship with the West as a relationship built on a sense of mutual alliance. Tunisia has long seen itself as a vital ally for both the United States and Europe; in 2012 a host of bilateral and multilateral agreements solidified the economic and political ties between Tunisia and Europe, and in 2015 Washington deemed Tunisia a Major Non-NATO Ally. These relationships span much of the past century; aside from being under French and Italian control during the colonial period, Tunisia became a key site of conflict in the North African theater during World War II, when Allied forces eventually broke into the Italian peninsula from the south. And for many Tunisians coming of age in the 1990s, the United States was seen as the ideal model of a superpower. Despite these deep ties between Tunisia and the West, the true nature of the country’s relationship with the United States and Europe continues to be unclear and ever-changing. However, geopolitical shifts and harsh realities have snuffed out that once-bright optimism. In Tunisia, the recent actions of the United States in the region have damaged its reputation, perhaps irreparably. This was evident in the United States' stance on the ongoing war in Gaza since last October, where it did not intervene effectively to stop the war using its diplomatic leverage. Moreover China, Russia, and other powers are steadily making economic and political inroads at the expense of the United States and Europe.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

248. Israel and the ICJ: Comparing International Court Cases During the Gaza War

Author:: Alexander Loengarov
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The current cycle of legal actions involving Israel is unprecedented in scope and politicization, but governments are still better off engaging with the process and lodging their objections there than dismissing it outright. On July 19, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will deliver an advisory opinion on the “legal consequences arising from the policies and practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem.” The opinion was requested by the UN General Assembly (UNGA) more than a year and a half ago—well before the Gaza war broke out—in the context of efforts to increase awareness of the Palestinian issue at various international forums, as well as more specific concerns about escalating “tensions and violence” with Israel. The timing of this week’s opinion might seem incongruous given how much has taken place since it was first requested in January 2023. Yet it is in keeping with a wartime trend in which more new cases are being brought before international courts, and pending cases are being rekindled and amplified. Distinguishing between these cases is instructive.
Topic:: Genocide, International Law, International Court of Justice (ICJ), and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

249. Oil: A Blessing for Politicians and a Curse for the People of Basra

Author:: Azhar Al-Rubaie
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The deterioration of public health in oil extraction cities requires tangible actions to end the suffering of the affected people by providing specialized treatment centers funded by the social benefits from petroleum profits. In June 2023, Iraq’s Council of Representatives approved the federal budget for 2023, 2024, and 2025. The state has allocated 198.9 trillion dinars ($153 billion) for each year, a staggering sum and the largest in the country’s history. Although Iraq is a top oil-producing country, observers have been alarmed at this uptick in spending, and they have good reason to believe that these vast sums will not reach the citizens but instead fill the pockets of the corrupt. According to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, Iraq consistently ranks as one of the most corrupt governments, and despite the massive budgets approved in Baghdad, everyday Iraqis continue to suffer from weak infrastructure, lack of job opportunities, and poor services in essential sectors such as healthcare. In the oil-rich city of Basra in Iraq’s south, local residents living near oil sites complain about the high rates of cancer, respiratory illness, and nervous system diseases, along with the scarcity of medicines and poor healthcare in the public sector. The dearth of basic services frequently forces patients to travel abroad to countries like Iran, India, Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, spending up to $6 million monthly to receive medical treatment. This contributes to the waste of public funds and their diversion abroad, which some might use to justify the smuggling of hard currency, especially to Iran.
Topic:: Corruption, Development, Oil, Services, and Public Health
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Basra

250. An Iron Curtain in the Sahel

Author:: Kyle Robertson
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Russia is taking advantage of recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to embed itself in the Sahel. However, its indiscriminate counterterrorism tactics come with a cost for their forces and the regimes it protects. Weak, corrupt governments with limited resources and active insurgencies set the conditions for military Juntas to seize power in Burkina Faso, Mali, and, most recently, Niger. The region’s militaries blamed persistent violence on civilian leaders and foreign forces–particularly France–that they viewed as inept. Additionally, the perceived interference of the United States and the failure of its counterterrorism policy to address local grievances drove recruitment for insurgent groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Sahel. Russian disinformation–which, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, accounts for roughly half of disinformation campaigns in West Africa–compounded these failures by targeting the United States and using themes of anti-imperialism and neocolonialism to inflame anti-western sentiment. Once the coups occurred, the United States was required by law to cut off security assistance, ending more than a decade of investment in the Sahel’s security infrastructure and giving Russia an opening in the region.
Topic:: Corruption, Insurgency, Islamic State, and Coup
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

251. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq's Strategic Role in ISIS Operations—A Crossroads of Conflict

Author:: Frzand Sherko
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Effective counter-narratives are required to weaken the group's ideological appeal, especially the propaganda targeting Kurdish populations. Since the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019, ISIS has undergone significant changes in its strategy and operations, especially in critical Iraqi provinces like Kirkuk, Salahuddin, Diyala, and Nineveh, which have historically been hotspots for insurgent activities and are now playing a pivotal role in the reorganization and operations of ISIS in Iraq. Iraq’s “disputed territories”–areas claimed by both the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)–have long been a haven for terrorist organizations. Terrorist leaders Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi operated and were eventually killed in hideouts adjacent to disputed areas, and other figures like Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Abu Ibrahim al-Quraishi, and Abu Hassan al-Quraishi took advantage of the shaky security situation to conduct operations in this locations. However, extremist groups do not thrive in these contested areas out of convenience alone; the provinces of Kirkuk, Salahuddin, Diyala, and Nineveh all hold significant strategic, economic, and geographic importance. Due to its vast oil resources, Kirkuk has been an enticing target, while Salahuddin’s proximity to Baghdad gives it immense historical and strategic significance. Diyala’s shared border with Iran makes it valuable as a launch point for cross-border attacks. Nineveh remains a significant symbolic and operational center even after the loss of territorial control by ISIS, as the province is home to Mosul, the once de facto capital of the ISIS caliphate. The diverse ethnic makeup of each of these provinces has likewise been of interest to ISIS as it has looked to exploit potential cleavages. In addition to military operations, ISIS conducts psychological warfare aimed at destabilizing state authority and creating fear among the population. The ongoing instability in these regions, compounded by political disputes and poor governance, furthers the efficacy of these efforts. However, activity in Erbil and Sulimaniyah is also increasingly visible to Kurdish security and counterterrorism forces.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Islamic State, Conflict, Ideology, and Narrative
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

252. U.S. Policy in the Middle East Amid Great Power Competition

Author:: Michael Singh
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The true U.S. strategy debate in the Middle East is not about whether we should stay or go; it’s about how to continue advancing the interests pursued by successive administrations even as hostile competitors and unresolved threats combine to throw U.S. regional policy off balance. By the end of the 2010s, two points of broad foreign policy consensus prevailed among Republicans and Democrats: The United States should not fight any more wars like Iraq, and the United States must shift to a focus on the Indo-Pacific given the threatening implications of China’s rise and demonstrated desire for hegemony in Asia. Both points seemed to imply a diminished U.S. commitment to the Middle East. Now, however, this consensus has evolved. American policymakers have arrived at the conclusion that strategic competition with China and Russia is global in scope, and the Middle East has a key role to play in it. That great power competition should draw the United States into—rather than out of—the Middle East is no historical anomaly. America was deeply engaged in the Middle East long before the Iraq War and the Global War on Terror. This engagement came not despite but because of the need to counter our great power competitor, the Soviet Union, which American policymakers worried might dominate the region’s resources and exert undue influence over its governance. Today, America’s competitors are once again contending for Middle Eastern influence. What’s more, unlike during the Cold War, the Middle East in turn is influencing events well beyond its boundaries...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

253. Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 2)

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ankara’s push for “soft recentralization” in Iraq will likely include more intensive efforts to establish the Development Road and prioritize Baghdad’s interests, though without abandoning the Kurdistan Region. As discussed in Part 1 of this PolicyWatch, Turkey’s Syria strategy is rather circuitous, potentially involving simultaneous negotiations with the Assad regime and the United States while running the risk of damaging relations with Washington if the two governments fail to coordinate their moves. In contrast, Ankara’s Iraq strategy—which boils down to promoting Turkish money over Iranian guns—is more straightforward and likely to receive U.S. backing. To this end, Ankara has conceived the Development Road, a proposed trade network that would run across Iraq and Turkey, connecting Asian and European markets via the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Initially, the project ran counter to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a U.S.-proposed route stretching from India through the Arabian Peninsula and Levant to Europe. Yet the Gaza war and ongoing Houthi maritime attacks have raised security concerns about commercial shipping through the Red Sea, suddenly boosting the prospects of the Development Road at IMEC’s expense. With Gulf money behind the project, Turkish policymakers predict the Development Road’s initial routes could open as early as 2027. Washington should consider throwing its support behind this initiative as well, particularly if it needs to counterbalance Iranian influence in Baghdad following a full or partial U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

254. Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 1)

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Having observed two decades of instability across its southern borders and anticipating U.S. withdrawals, Ankara is planning steps to end the volatility, including potentially wide-ranging agreements with the Assad regime. Events in the Fertile Crescent since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq have not been in favor of Turkish security interests. The ensuing Iraqi civil strife, the rise of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS), and Syria’s civil war collectively resulted in regional instability for over two decades, including numerous terrorist attacks against Turkey. Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a NATO-designated terrorist entity that has been fighting Ankara for decades, took advantage of Iraq’s decentralization to establish itself along the border in the semiautonomous Kurdistan Region. On Turkey’s other southern border, the multinational campaign against IS led to a U.S. partnership with the People’s Defense Units (YPG)—the PKK’s armed Syrian wing that later took a leading role in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and gained control over a large swath of the frontier. This partnership became the greatest impediment to a reset in U.S.-Turkey ties. Today, anticipating that the U.S. military presence in Iraq and Syria will decrease significantly, Ankara aims to promote soft recentralization in both neighbors, toward the broader goals of curbing instability across its borders and denying operational space to the PKK. Part 1 of this PolicyWatch discusses how these goals affect Turkish policy in Syria; Part 2 addresses the implications for Iraq.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Partnerships, PKK, Regional Politics, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

255. Egypt’s Economy Amidst Regional Conflicts

Author:: Sahar Albazar
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Egypt, strategically positioned in the heart of the Middle East and North Africa, is grappling with significant economic pressures exacerbated by regional conflicts and geopolitical instability. The multifaceted crises stemming from the Israeli-Palestinian war, the Sudanese civil war, Libya’s political disarray, and the Russia-Ukraine war have collectively intensified the economic strains on Cairo. These challenges not only impact Egypt's economy but also threaten regional stability. Given the challenges facing Egypt and the region, Cairo is expecting from the United States to play a supportive role towards its strategic partner in the region. The international perception of regional instability is affecting Egypt’s domestic economy; tourism accounted for over 24% of GDP and employing over 2.5 million. However, the perception of insecurity in neighboring countries has deterred international visitors. Tourist arrivals declined by an estimated 25-30% between 2010-2022 compared to pre-conflicts levels. The resulting drop in tourism revenue has placed an additional strain on Egypt's foreign exchange reserves and employment relies heavily on this sector for foreign exchange earnings and employment.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Economy, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

256. How Autocracy Prevailed in Tunisia

Author:: Sarah Yerkes and Sabina Henneberg
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Any future democratic renewal will require an entirely new movement that goes much further toward addressing the country’s deepest economic and social injustices. Not long ago, Tunisia was considered one of the biggest success stories in the Middle East and North Africa. Unlike neighboring Arab countries that experienced massive popular uprisings in 2011, Tunisia did not immediately revert to authoritarianism or descend into civil war. Instead, after its longtime dictator fled, an interim government held free and fair elections. The new, democratically elected regime adopted a liberal constitution and allowed civil society and independent media to flourish. By now, however, that success has decisively unraveled. Last month, for the first time in 14 years, Tunisia held a sham presidential election, marked by extensive manipulation and repression...
Topic:: Arab Spring, Protests, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and Tunisia

257. Winds of Change: Ankara’s Subtle Shifts Towards Reconciliation with Kurdish Elements in Turkey

Author:: Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Signs that Ankara is interested in a potential reconciliation with the PKK could lead an end to a decades-long conflict and have ripple effects across the region, although numerous obstacles remain. On November 11, Turkish Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş, from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), backed an October proposal by hardliner Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to address the Turkish government’s longstanding tensions with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) —a left-wing militant group founded in the 1980s that emerged in response to Turkey’s ban on Kurdish identity and language. Several weeks earlier, Bahçeli had proposed that the jailed leader of the outlawed PKK Abdullah Öcalan could be released from his life sentence in exchange for announcing an end to the group’s insurgency, and could likewise be allowed to speak in Turkey’s parliament. In his statement, Kurtulmuş underlined that the place “where all these negotiations should take place is the Turkish Grand National Assembly, the seat of the national will. I hope that we will enter a period where terrorism is no longer discussed, where terrorism has been eradicated.” Kurtulmus’s statement highlighted that there may be broader governmental support for the process initially outlined by MHP head Bahçeli. During his initial announcement, Bahçeli also shook hands with the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), this while in the past he has repeatedly called for the closure of the predecessor of the DEM and opposed a peace process between the PKK and the state. After Bahçeli’s speech, Öcalan’s family was allowed to visit him for the first time since March 2020, and Öcalan indicated he is ready to play a role to find a solution. However, shortly after, a new three-month visit ban was imposed on Öcalan. Nevertheless, Bahçeli’s proposal—especially notable coming from the MHP, which formed the People’s Alliance with the AKP in 2018 and in the past always had a hardline policy on the PKK, including calling for Öcalan’s execution in 2007—has resulted in many discussions in Turkey over the potential of a new peace process. Erdogan (and the PKK) had pursued such a process during his early years in office, but it collapsed in 2015 and resulted in new fighting between the Turkish state and the PKK. Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani noted In October 2024 at the MERI conference in Erbil that this would mark the beginning of a new process, adding that the remarks of Turkish government officials are promising. “They indicate that a process is underway and that the issues at hand will be addressed.” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan welcomed the proposal on October 30 but underlined that Bahçeli’s appeal was not directed toward the "terror barons" in Iraq and Syria (PKK) and called on Kurds to accept Bahçeli’s proposal.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Kurds, Reconciliation, and PKK
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

258. Supporting the SDF in Post-Assad Syria

Author:: Ido Levy
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: To preserve its only reliable and capable partner in the fight against the Islamic State, the United States must help the SDF deter HTS and fend off Turkey-backed militias. Bashar al-Assad’s fall has quickly changed the map of Syria. While the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies swept out of their base in Idlib to seize major regime strongholds en route to the capital, other opposition groups moved to take territory in the southeastern provinces of Deraa and Quneitra. In the central and southern Badia desert region, the U.S.-backed opposition faction Maghawir al-Thawra has expanded its control around the American garrison at al-Tanf. Remnants of the Islamic State (IS) prowl the desert too, liable to strike at any moment. And in the northeast, the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) moved deeper into Raqqa but lost ground in Tal Rifaat and Manbij due to advances by the Syrian National Army (SNA), the local coalition of Turkey-backed militias. At this fragile moment, U.S. officials must reassess the SDF’s needs to ensure it has the support required to continue the mission that brought the two partners together in the first place—the shared fight against IS, which now includes defending the many northeastern detention facilities that hold thousands of IS members and supporters. This task also entails keeping SNA militias at bay and ensuring that the SDF is prepared to face a renewed HTS offensive if the jihadists decide to push into the northeast.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

259. Washington Returns to Damascus with High Stakes for Syria’s Transition

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The delegation’s findings on key political and security issues will have a major impact on future U.S. engagement with Syria’s new leaders, including the decision on whether or not to remove sanctions. For the first time since October 2011, when Ambassador Robert Ford was pulled from Syria amid U.S. concerns about the Assad regime’s crackdown on protesters, Washington is back in Damascus—this time to engage with the new transitional government led by rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Earlier today, U.S. officials met with HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani (aka Ahmed al-Sharaa) to uncover information on missing Americans Austin Tice, Majd Kamalmaz, and others; they were also scheduled to meet with civil society figures, activists, and representatives of various minority communities. The delegation includes Barbara Leaf, the State Department’s assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs; Roger Carstens, the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs; and Daniel Rubinstein, a long-time Arabist and retired ambassador recently recalled to duty. Their visit comes on the heels of a Pentagon announcement that the U.S. military presence in Syria has jumped from 900 to 2,000 soldiers, illustrating concerns about how the Islamic State (IS) might take advantage of the new situation. The delegation arrives at a momentous time in Syria’s transition process, which is officially scheduled to last until March 1. Local sources suggest that the second phase of the transition will begin in the coming days, during which HTS is supposed to open the process to more representatives from all of Syrian society, rather than just the HTS loyalists who have overseen the first phase. Therefore, much is at stake for the current U.S. delegation and Washington’s broader efforts to redevelop a Syria policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Transitional Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

260. Public Opinion and Development Policy: Alignment Needed

Author:: Irene Paviotti
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The crises of the past few years have significantly affected the volumes of official development assistance (ODA) – also known as aid – provided by traditional donors. 2023 marked the fifth consecutive year for increased ODA allocations globally: total volumes reached 223.7 billion US dollars, a significant increase from the 160 billion US dollars provided in 2019. The succession of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and, most recently, the flare-up of the Israel-Palestine conflict contributed to such increase. Absolute volumes however position members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Development Assistance Committee (OECD DAC), that is, traditional donors, still far away from the United Nations target of allocating 0.7 per cent of gross national income (GNI) to ODA – in 2023, the OECD average hovered around 0.37 per cent.[1] Although this percentage is the highest in 55 years,[2] the need for concessional finance for developing countries has arguably never been more urgent. The challenges brought about by an ever-worsening climate crisis, coupled with long-standing issues such as poverty and poor health are enough to justify increased ODA, according to practitioners.[3] These figures are usually (and rightly) discussed from such outward impact perspective – how will a less generous donor affect the beneficiaries whose livelihoods its ODA supports? The input dimension, that is, whether these policies align with a country’s public sentiment on ODA, is however relatively less explored. ODA is public funding, so it might be legitimate to ask: where does public opinion stand on aid, and what could this possibly mean for development policy and practice?
Topic:: Development, Public Opinion, and Economic Aid
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Italy, and United States of America

261. China-Taiwan Relations and the EU: How European Soft Power Could Help Reduce Cross-Strait Tensions

Author:: Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Russia’s war against Ukraine has brought back to the spotlight the question of China’s (officially the People’s Republic of China, PRC) potential attack on Taiwan (officially the Republic of China, ROC). Beijing claims that the island is one of its provinces, whereas the current Taiwanese government maintains that it is already an independent country. A conflict over Taiwan – or even a Chinese blockade of the island – would have immediate economic and political implications for Europe which will likely impose sanctions on the PRC, the EU’s second-largest trading partner.[1] The EU is not a security actor in East Asia, but has some formidable – and unique – soft power assets that could be leveraged to promote dialogue and understanding between China and Taiwan, with the objective of reducing tensions in the area and maintaining the status quo.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Taiwan, and Asia

262. Technological Innovation and Cybersecurity: The Role of the G7

Author:: Ettore Greco and Federica Marconi
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In an era of unprecedented technological advancement, digital transformation is revealing its enormous potential, but also presenting new challenges. At its core, it represents a catalyst for innovation, igniting advancements that enhance productivity and propel economic growth. Thus, harnessing its transformative power holds the promise of unlocking new opportunities, solving complex challenges and ultimately shaping a more inclusive and sustainable future for humanity. However, rapid technological progress has ushered in a new era of interconnectedness and interdependence, where nations are increasingly reliant on digital systems and networks to power their economies and safeguard their national security. In this regard, the intersection of technological advancement and the amplification of geopolitical tensions has brought into sharp focus the myriad threats that countries face in the contemporary landscape. Among others, cyberattacks, in particular, have grown more sophisticated, transcending national borders and necessitating collaboration and partnerships among nations to protect against such threats. These challenges have prompted all major actors – both public and private – to intensify their efforts to protect their data and digital assets. They are devising and implementing a variety of risk management strategies. The empirical evidence shows that the most effective and resilient cybersecurity policies and approaches are those tailored to specific risks and security requirements. Individual organisations need to adopt the cybersecurity measures most appropriate for the challenges they face, based on a careful risk assessment. This requires the adoption of internationally recognised cybersecurity frameworks and standards that are based upon the principles of risk management and that are relevant across sectors to strengthen consistency and continuity among interconnected sectors and throughout global supply chains. Cybersecurity threats are transnational by definition and as such they can be countered effectively only through global mechanisms aimed at risk reduction and trust building. A primary objective of multilateral cooperation should be the adoption of interoperable policy frameworks that promote international harmonisation and consistent cybersecurity mechanisms. The G7 can provide a fundamental impulse for this cooperation at the global level by encouraging the development and implementation of risk-based, consensus-driven frameworks, standards and risk management best practices. A commitment to these internationally recognised cyber risk management approaches and frameworks can advance economic security and enhance cyber resilience across the ecosystem.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, G7, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

263. Gaza’s Day After Starts in Ramallah

Author:: Francesca Borri
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The toing and froing of proposals and counterproposals for a ceasefire in Gaza has been going on for months now. The talks between the Israeli government and Hamas, however, have never really been about numbers: how many hostages to release, which ones, in return for how many and which prisoners, and how many days of truce. The sticking point is another: Hamas calls for the end of the war, and the Israeli government for the end of Hamas. This means that, in reality, the stand-off is all about the “day after”. How can a government be established in Gaza that ensures freedom and development on one side, and security on the other one? And yet, that’s what no one has been working on. While most mediators admit by now that Hamas will not be destroyed, in the ceasefire talks the issue of the “day after” continues not to be factored in.
Topic:: Hamas, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

264. Italy’s National Energy and Climate Plan and Road Transport: An Appraisal

Author:: Pier Paolo Raimondi and Michel Noussan
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The Italian government has recently submitted the final version of its National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP),[1] which outlines Italian measures to achieve its national climate targets by 2030 in line with the objectives set by the European Union. To do so, Italy has put forward targets, strategies and measures also for the decarbonisation of transport, which remains among the hardest to decarbonise. While Italy’s greenhouse gas emissions due to energy consumption have decreased by 21 per cent from 1990 to 2022, those related to transport have increased by 8 per cent in the same period. Moreover, the transport sector accounted for 27 per cent of national emissions in 2022, with road transport alone accounting for 92 per cent of those emissions.[2] Against this backdrop, it is important to assess the main targets and political implications of Italy’s NECP related to both private cars and heavy-duty road transport (buses and trucks) in order to identify potential gaps and opportunities to reach Italy’s climate targets.
Topic:: Climate Change, Transportation, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

265. Europe’s De-risking from China: Dead on Arrival?

Author:: Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: De-risking ties from China has become a buzzword in European policy circles, amid growing tensions between the West and the Asian giant. While US policymakers and experts continue to focus on the need to decouple ties from Beijing, the concept of de-risking has been largely fashioned in Brussels to avoid the decoupling debate and find a common transatlantic ground. While EU member states have reduced critical dependencies on China to varying degrees, their efforts are resisted by some large companies, local authorities and civil society actors eager to boost ties with Beijing. Recently, several EU governments have been promoting industrial cooperation with China, opening doors to Chinese investments in their territories to boost production of electric vehicles and green technologies. While this form of cooperation brings benefits to Europe’s industrial capacity and competitiveness, it however risks increasing the level of dependency on Beijing, undermining the de-risking strategy being put in place by the European Commission, as well as deepening the rift with the US on how to deal with the Asian giant. Going forward, there is a need for a thorough and frank debate about the EU’s de-risking strategy and its future prospect, also considering a possible return of Trump to the White House.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Trade, Transatlantic Relations, Industry, and De-Risking
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

266. The Beijing Palestinian Reconciliation Agreement: An Opportunity not to Be Missed

Author:: Menachem Klein
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The Palestinian reconciliation agreement signed in Beijing on 22 July[1] did not attract much attention. It is easy to understand why. Many agreements like it have been signed between Fatah and Hamas since the 1980s and have not been implemented. What is different about this agreement? The difference does not lie in the prospects for reconciliation, which may materialise or ultimately fail like its predecessors, but rather in the contents to which the Hamas movement has agreed. In other words, the novelty is not in the reconciliation but in Hamas’s modified positions.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Hamas, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Palestine

267. Italy’s Migration Policies Amidst Climate Change: An Assessment

Author:: Chiara Scissa
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Since the 1990s, Italy has progressively become a country of destination for migration movements especially from Africa and South Asia. In 2022, Italy received a total of 84,289 claims for international protection. The main nationalities of origin were Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt, Tunisia and Nigeria.[1] The causes of migration are multiple and complex, and could refer to political, economic, social and/or cultural grounds. Yet, and not without hurdles, another relevant factor that contributes to driving people to move to a different country has started to emerge: climate change (and its related impacts on disasters, environmental degradation and other environmental factors). Although the nexus between climate change and migration is complex to define and to identify, it is relevant to note that many protection-seekers in Italy come from countries most exposed to climate change that, in certain cases, may have played a role either in directly shaping migration movements or in exacerbating more proximate causes of migration, such as worsening conflicts over scarce resources, violence, poverty or discrimination dynamics in the aftermath of a disaster.[2] Against this backdrop, in the following, I will first examine how the climate change-migration nexus has been approached by the Italian legal system, to then move to the Meloni government’s political strategy in the field of migration governance, followed by an assessment of their respective efficacy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, and Migration
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Italy

268. South Africa’s G20 Presidency: Tapping into Africa’s Potential through Financial, Climate and Food System Reform

Author:: Darlington Tshuma and Bongiwe Ngcobo-Mphahlele
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Both the G20 and BRICS+[1] are critical global groupings for economic and geostrategic reasons. Thirty years ago, G7 countries constituted nearly 70 per cent of the global economy. In contrast, by 2024, the BRICS+ bloc accounted for approximately 35 per cent of the world’s GDP, compared to the 30 per cent held by G7 countries.[2] Meanwhile, G20 countries represent 85 per cent of the global economy, 75 per cent of global trade, and 62 per cent of the world’s population.[3] This shift underscores the growing influence and significance of emerging economies. South Africa’s membership in the G20 and BRICS+ attests to the country’s role as an economic and political powerhouse – both on the African continent and increasingly in the global South. In 2025, South Africa will assume the presidency of the G20 – the first African country to do so, taking over from Brazil. At a moment of heightened geopolitical tensions and a fragmented international system characterised by multiple and simultaneous crises, including the climate and energy crisis, and the Russian-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine wars, can South Africa’s G20 presidency be an opportunity to reshape global governance? Founded in 1999 in response to the global financial crisis, the G20 is the main forum for international cooperation and plays an important role in defining and strengthening global architecture and governance. South Africa’s presidency should consolidate priority issues established by the Brazilian government but anchor on three critical issues: reform of the global financial architecture, climate change and a just energy transition and sustainable food systems. A policy focus on these issues will lay a foundation for the continent’s leapfrogging.
Topic:: Climate Change, Reform, G20, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

269. The Tragedy behind Israel’s Ostensible Triumph

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The killing by Israel of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the Islamist Shia militia that controls South Lebanon, may well go down in history as the harbinger of a seismic change in the balance of power in the Levant and arguably the whole Middle East. Iran’s ensuing retaliatory missile strike makes war with Israel all but inevitable, though its magnitude remains uncertain. Part of it will be fought with missiles, rockets and drones flying across the sky between the two arch-enemies. Part of it will be fought across the region, possibly wherever Iran’s axis of resistance – the network of pro-Iran armed groups spanning Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Yemen is based. Most of it will likely be fought in Lebanon, home to Hezbollah, whose demise – or even severe weakening – would result in Iran’s influence in the Levant being curtailed. While Israel’s onslaught on Hezbollah has tilted the balance of power heavily in its favour, it is too early to make predictions – after all, the Middle East has disrupted expectations time and time again in the past. It is still possible though to make some considerations and discuss a few open questions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Proxy Groups, and Hassan Nasrallah
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and United States of America

270. Environmental Crimes and Forced Migration: An Overlooked Nexus

Author:: Chiara Scissa
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The nexus between climate change, disasters and migration has been, and still is, widely explored by scholars. Yet, most research studies focus on the role of extreme weather events in shaping migration flows, and how climate change aggravates their intensity and frequency, especially in climate-vulnerable and disaster-prone countries. Few sources instead shed light on another key scenario triggering forced migration movements both within and across borders, namely when climate-related harm or disasters result from, or are associated with, environmental crimes.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:: Africa, Colombia, South America, and Nigeria

271. US-Germany Missile Agreement: Deterrence or Escalation?

Author:: Polina Sinovets
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: This October was marked by a statement by the Head of the German Foreign Service Intelligence, Bruno Kahl, who claimed that by the end of this decade at the latest, Russian troops could “carry out an attack” against NATO.[1] The defence chief could hardly be accused of hyperbole. His comments took place at the time of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s growing nuclear blackmail of the West and regular threats to use some measures[2] against any NATO country whose military deployments might potentially affect Russian missiles’ striking capabilities. Against this backdrop and with the new US administration coming to power in 2025 under the slogan of turning all its attention to China, Europe will have to care much more about its defence and security than before 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed the weak spots of the European NATO pillar in terms of arms production, military budgeting and general preparedness for a large-scale war in European territory, which turns out to be critical for the security of the continent.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Germany, and United States of America

272. The Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Regime: A Strategic Blow to Russia

Author:: Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, one that Middle East experts will undoubtedly scrutinise for its broader implications. Yet, for those studying Russia, the situation holds a clear message: the downfall of Syria’s dictator is a strategic blow for Moscow.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, and Syria

273. EU Defence Industrial Initiatives: A Quantum Leap Is Needed

Author:: Gaia Ravazzolo and Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: During Ursula von der Leyen’s first mandate as European Commission President, a number of EU defence industrial initiatives were launched, while the European Defence Fund (EDF) was implemented. The fragmentation of the EU’s defence industrial policy is evident in the proliferation of tools, with EDF itself, the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act (EDIS), and the European Defence Industrial Plan (EDIP) as prime examples. Yet the current landscape of fragmented tools and modest budgets is insufficient to meet the long-term challenges arising from an increasingly complex international and geopolitical context. The second von der Leyen’s Commission will have to face critical decisions to properly fund and support the European defence industry to contribute to the continent’s collective deterrence and defence amidst a limited and uncertain US commitment to the region.
Topic:: European Union and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Europe

274. Surviving the War: Russia-Western Balkan Ties After the War in Ukraine

Author:: Maksim Samorukov
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 pushed Europe into a new era of instability. The fundamentals of the continent’s political and economic order are shifting as Russia’s brutal methods of war undermine the prospects of the slightest cooperation between Moscow and European states. Decades-old trade links have been severed, transport corridors rerouted, and people-to-people contacts have become more scarce than ever. Europe is reshaping its security architecture around Russia as the main threat, while Moscow frames its aggression against Ukraine as an existential defensive war with a duplicitous West. The only European region that stands out in this process of growing mutual alienation is the Western Balkans. More than a year into the war, Russia’s relations with several Balkan states appear to have undergone little change. Serbia is eagerly continuing with energy deals with Gazprom, Bosnian Serb leaders frequent Moscow on official visits, and some leading Montenegrin parties are sticking to pro-Russian slogans. It would appear that time stands still in the Western Balkans, with petty local grievances overriding major global developments This publication was produced with the support of the Open Society Foundations (OSF). Responsibility for the content of this publication belongs solely to Belgrade Centre for Security Policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Trade, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Balkans

275. The Spillover Effect: The Gaza Conflict and Potential Ramifications to the Western Balkans

Author:: Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:: This report outlines potential security and geopolitical risks for the Western Balkans stemming from the war in Gaza. While none of these security challenges are inevitable, they are possible. Depending on whether the conflict in Gaza continues in its current form or whether it escalates in intensity and number of belligerents, there are at least three potential ramifications for the Western Balkans. The first concerns the potential radicalisation in the local Muslim communities involving anti-Semitism and acts of violence that could disrupt harmony between local religious communities. The second concerns the risk that if the conflict expands to engulf Iran and Hezbollah and potentially other regional actors, there is a risk that this security rivalry between Middle Eastern players like Israel and Iran will spread to the Western Balkans. Thirdly, depending on the geographical scope and duration of the conflict, there is a potentially high risk of a new refugee crisis impacting the region.
Topic:: Security, Radicalization, Geopolitics, Refugees, 2023 Gaza War, and Antisemitism
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Western Balkans

276. Russian Propaganda in Serbia and the Western Balkans: The Case of Telegram Channels

Author:: Polina Greisman
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:: This study is based on the analysis of open data obtained from the Internet, dealing with Telegram channels that are directly connected to official Russian media. Serbia is no exception to the list of countries whose internal affairs found themselves on the receiving end of Russian government interference. However, due to the friendly relations between Russia and Serbia, these facts are rarely made public. Also, not all of them are obvious, at first glance, as propaganda and interference. That is why we will look at this issue in this study and, using the example of Serbia, find out what methods of propaganda and intervention Russia is using in a country that can be described as “friendly.” This study shows the propaganda tools that Russia is using in the Balkans, particularly in Serbia and Montenegro. It also contains an analysis of propaganda narratives that appear in the Russian media operating in the Balkans, and their comparison with propaganda narratives in the media that operate in Russia.
Topic:: Media, Propaganda, Disinformation, and Telegram
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Serbia, and Western Balkans

277. Scramble for Green Technologies: Strategies of Major Players and Serbia’s Opportunities

Author:: Mikhail Korostikov
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:: The struggle between the EU, the US and China for dominance in new technological niche markets has the potential to become the most important story of the next two to three decades, potentially overshadowing any ongoing military conflicts in the world. It is taking place on several fronts at once: artificial intelligence, new principles of industrial production (such as the use of robots or additive technologies), space exploration, and much more. This report explores the political and economic confrontation between the three sides regarding the green technology industry and draws certain conclusions regarding the implications of this confrontation for Serbia. The role of Serbia’s reserves of lithium and other minerals important for the latest high-tech industries could affect the country’s standing in the world in general, and its importance to the EU in particular. However, it is critical to ensure that Serbia maximises the opportunities associated with the exploitation of lithium and concentrates the maximum number of links in the value chain associated with the extraction, processing and utilisation of the valuable resource. It is equally important that the lithium mining process be carried out in accordance with the best environmental standards and, first and foremost, with the support of the environmental authorities of the European Union, potentially being the final beneficiaries of the project.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Green Technology, Mining, Lithium, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and United States of America

278. Buckles and Holes in China’s Belt and Road – A Case Study of Belarus and Serbia

Author:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:: The international system is undergoing profound changes and one of the main ones is the growth of China’s global influence, which is gradually turning into a source of influence comparable to the United States. This process is accompanied by the growth of China’s political and economic presence in different regions of the world. Europe is no exception, but this process varies greatly in different countries, with some countries only cautiously developing ties with China while others seek to expand them as much as possible. This raises the question of the reasons for such differences, as well as the consequences of active development of China’s ties for political and economic development. In this regard, it seems interesting to compare the most “pro-Chinese” countries in Europe, namely Belarus, which has the closest contacts with China among countries of Eastern Europe and Serbia, and occupies a similar position in the Balkans. The analysis shows that for both countries, China is, first of all, a political and economic alternative to the EU and the US, and in the case of Belarus, also to Russia. Such cooperation expands the space for manoeuvre, but usually does not lead to the solution of the strategic goals – advanced economic development, political resilience, sustainable cooperation with the main (crucial) partners.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and International System
Political Geography:: Europe and Belarus

279. COP29: Reason for Hope Despite the New Climate Financing Deal

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Although COP29 did not deliver a satisfactory new climate financing figure, other developments outside of the UNFCCC give reason to hope for a sustained momentum for climate action.
Topic:: United Nations, Climate Finance, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

280. China Will Step Up if the US Falls Behind on Climate Action

Author:: Pey Peili and Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Even under a second Trump administration, climate targets and negotiations will continue, with China stepping up to lead the global energy transition. Southeast Asia must brace itself for protectionist measures from the United States and China, and increased competition between the two in renewable energy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Donald Trump, Protectionism, Competition, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: China and Asia

281. Food Security Beyond Borders: Securing ASEAN’s Food Supply Chains

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Paul Teng
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Regional trade and economic integration will be increasingly important in future ASEAN food security discussions post-2025. A shift is needed going beyond the traditional focus on country-level food security towards a truly integrated regional approach based on interlinked food supply chain security.
Topic:: Food Security, Borders, ASEAN, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

282. Health Security of Low-Wage Migrant Workers Post-COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the importance of addressing the welfare of low-wage migrant workers. This includes improving their working and living conditions, better access to healthcare, and more social interactions with local communities.
Topic:: Security, Health, COVID-19, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

283. Cyberbiosecurity: Adapting to Emerging Threats in the Biosecurity Landscape

Author:: Jeselyn and Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Cyberbiosecurity is a growing area of concern. However, it remains poorly addressed and underappreciated, especially in Southeast Asia. A comprehensive approach incorporating cyber and biosecurity strategies such as raising awareness, capacity-building and engaging the biotechnology sector is needed.
Topic:: Biosecurity, Cybersecurity, Threat Assessment, and Cyberbiosecurity
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

284. The Post-2025 ASEAN Agrifood Landscape: What Next?

Author:: Paul Teng
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The ASEAN agrifood landscape – food produced from agriculture – has changed much since two key guiding documents were conceived – The ASEAN Vision and Strategic Plan of Action for Food, Agriculture and Forestry, 2016-2025, and the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint, 2025. New players and new influencing factors are now at the forefront, and more than ever, ASEAN has to balance economic growth-related food security and safeguarding the environment while considering sustainable food systems that provide livelihoods for smallholder farmers and affordable, safe food for consumers.
Topic:: Agriculture, Food, Food Security, Economic Growth, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Asia

285. ASEAN One Health Efforts: Tackling the Intersections of Climate Change and Health

Author:: Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Climate change and global warming are adversely impacting the environment, and, in turn, human health. Southeast Asia is especially vulnerable. ASEAN policymakers must prioritise regional cooperation to address these challenges. ASEAN’s One Health approach is a good starting point.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Asia

286. Gaza Needs Humanitarian Assistance Now as Famine Sets In

Author:: Alistair D. B. Cook
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Dealing with the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and preventing famine requires increasing airdrops as an interim solution and reinforcing diplomatic efforts to open up more aid channels.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Famine, Humanitarian Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

287. Agriculture and Food at COP28: Not Just More Money

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Paul Teng
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The recent COP28 Climate Summit has finally given due recognition to food and agriculture given the close links between climate change and food production. While the summit saw a big push to operationalise the newly established Loss and Damage Fund, limited attention was given to agriculture in discussions on the said fund. Rather than focusing on drawing from the new fund to promote sustainable and climate-resilient agricultural practices, greater attention is needed instead to mobilising existing funds.
Topic:: Agriculture, Food, Climate Finance, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

288. Health responses during COVID-19

Author:: Neha Singh, Kimberley Popple, and James Smith
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic presented a grave global health challenge, both in terms of scale and severity. The novelty of the virus and the widespread economic impacts of efforts to contain it created an urgent global need to understand the virus, issue accurate guidance and develop effective prevention and treatment. As the pandemic progressed, many contexts already affected by humanitarian crises faced a new health threat, further compounded by the pandemic’s deleterious impact on socioeconomic indicators, food security and essential services. Many other countries, not previously considered as affected by humanitarian crises, had to reorientate to crisis response given the extent of the threat posed by COVID-19. Both the anticipated and realised impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic placed immense pressure on healthcare systems worldwide to both prevent and treat COVID-19 cases – something that has often required complex interventions – while simultaneously maintaining essential health services. As such, policymakers and healthcare workers were pressed to make changes to systems and practices to respond to the direct threat posed by COVID-19, and the indirect impact of COVID-19 response measures on non-COVID-19 health needs. Much of the available COVID-19 guidance primarily focused on higher-income countries, many of which became the early epicentres of the pandemic, and thus far has not necessarily been as relevant or applicable to humanitarian settings where living and working conditions, as well as the wider socio-cultural environment, are very different, and where local health systems may already be weakened by existing humanitarian crises and other challenges. Furthermore, where guidance has been developed for humanitarian settings (Interagency Standing Committee [IASC], 2020; Ramalingam, 2020), the diversity of countries and contexts that fall under such categorisation is such that any guidance produced is not able – nor intended – to be context specific. As such, humanitarian organisations at the country level have initiated adaptive interventions to respond to the specific challenges they have experienced (Lancet, 2020). These adaptations often demonstrate a complex process whereby organisations acknowledge guidance is available to support interventions, but that they must nonetheless adapt or innovate in response to contextual realities (Odlum et al., 2021).
Topic:: Health, COVID-19, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:: Global Focus

289. The humanitarian response to COVID-19: Lessons for future pandemics and global crises

Author:: Emmeline Kerkvliet, Samir Hafiz, and Susanna Morrison-Metois
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic was unparalleled in scope and scale, and the response tested the humanitarian system in new and unforeseen ways. While funding was not able to keep pace with the massive rise in global needs, the system proved to be extraordinarily resilient. However, neither the crisis itself nor the response to it should be understood as exceptional. Despite its many achievements and adaptations, the humanitarian response walked a well-trodden path. Humanitarian actors often defaulted to their usual, top-down ways of working, revealing perennial problems in the current formal international humanitarian system. Evaluations emphasise that the response was carried out under significant constraints – unpredictability, scarcity of information and limited humanitarian access – but caution should be exercised against interpreting these constraints as justifications for the shortcomings of the response. There were striking parallels between the operating environment of COVID-19 and other crises, which are not new to humanitarians. In framing the pandemic as an exceptional crisis, there is a real risk of diminishing the importance of learning and the need for transformative change within the sector. ALNAP 's analysis suggests that there is much to be learned – and further researched – from the response to COVID-19, which will be useful in responding to future public health emergencies, as well as other major crises. This evaluation synthesis focuses on nine key areas of the humanitarian system's response to the pandemic: sense-making and resource mobilization; needs prioritization and inclusion of the most vulnerable; adaptation of the humanitarian system; meeting the needs; localization; community engagement; coordination and collaboration with partners; utilization of learning from the Ebola and other public health responses; and evidence gaps and areas for further research. Download main report file
Topic:: Crisis Management, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Monitoring, Humanitarian Assistance, and Evaluation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

290. Hermanos fi al-Muqawama, Brothers in the Resistance

Author:: Amy Fallas
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the heat of parallel struggles against imperial oppression, one of the most prominent historical ideologues of El Salvador’s revolutionary movement played a key role in forging solidarity with the Middle East.
Topic:: Imperialism, Solidarity, History, and Schafik Handal
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and El Salvador

291. A Genocidal Special Relationship

Author:: Carlota McAllister
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Guatemala and Israel boast a long friendship dating to the formation of the Zionist state. Their shared histories of violence against Mayas and Palestinians bely each state’s claims to liberation.
Topic:: Genocide, History, Bilateral Relations, and Zionism
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, Central America, and Guatemala

292. In the U.S. South, Latin American Diaspora Organizes for Palestinian Liberation

Author:: Álvaro José Mejía Arias, Roxana Bendezú, Ramón Mejía, Alyssah Roth, Alex Trejo, and Victor Urquiza
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: From Texas to North Carolina, Latine solidarity organizers connect the dots between U.S. imperialism in the Americas and Israel’s colonization of Palestine.
Topic:: Imperialism, Diaspora, Protests, Colonization, and Organizing
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, Latin America, and United States of America

293. For Palestine, from Ayiti

Author:: Sandy Plácido
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Apartheid and genocide in the occupied territories hold up a mirror to the racist exclusion of Haitians and Black people in the Dominican Republic. Anti-imperialist solidarity is imperative.
Topic:: Apartheid, Genocide, Solidarity, Exclusion, Racism, and Anti-Imperialism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Latin America, Caribbean, and Haiti

294. The Campus Rebellion for Palestine

Author:: Conor Tomás Reed, Camila Azeñas, William Armando Hurtado Barrero, Ana González, and Camilo Godoy Pichón
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Across the hemisphere, students demanded an end to the genocide in Gaza. How they navigated repression and resistance offers lessons for the solidarity movement.
Topic:: Genocide, Repression, Students, Universities, 2023 Gaza War, and Organizing
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

295. Trump and the Latin American Left

Author:: Jacinto Gómez-López
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Progressive governments in Latin America are not as united today as they were a decade ago. How prepared are they to navigate the onslaught of a second Trump administration?
Topic:: Politics, Donald Trump, Leftist Politics, and Progressivism
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

296. A Narrow Frente Amplio Victory in Uruguay

Author:: Debbie Sharnak
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A former teacher and provincial mayor won a close runoff vote in Uruguay, signaling a return to the social welfare politics of the center-left Frente Amplio coalition.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Social Welfare, and Frente Amplio
Political Geography:: South America and Uruguay

297. To Exist is to Resist ¡Viva Palestina Libre!

Author:: Sara Awartani, Pablo Seward Delaporte, Linda Quiquivix, and George Ygarza
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Winter 2024 issue of the NACLA Report explores transcontinental encounters between the land of historical Palestine and the land we know as the Americas.
Topic:: Imperialism, History, Solidarity, and Transcontinental
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

298. “If we Fall, Others Will Follow”: Organizing to Combat Anti-Haitianism Tomorrow and Beyond

Author:: Darlène Dubuisson and Mark Schuller
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The quest for white dominance has required undermining Haiti’s freedom and demonizing its people. A transnational response is necessary to foster solidarity and challenge the notion of U.S. exceptionalism.
Topic:: Immigration, Solidarity, Xenophobia, and Racism
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, Haiti, and United States of America

299. Life Beyond the Darién for Children on the Move

Author:: Timothy O'Farrell
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Children now represent 1 in 5 people traversing the Darién Gap. The repercussions of crossing the jungle on children’s mental health have become a major challenge for humanitarian organizations.
Topic:: Migration, Children, Mental Health, and Humanitarian Organizations
Political Geography:: South America, Central America, and Darién Gap

300. Bolivia in its Labyrinth

Author:: Gabriel Rodríguez García
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Bolivia’s economic and political crisis is a symptom of the moral decay of the Movement Towards Socialism party, putting into question its once revolutionary promises and horizons.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Political Parties, Political Crisis, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: South America and Bolivia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS