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2. Chavismo in the World
- Author:
- Angelo Rivero Santos and Javier Morales Hernández
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Bolivarian Revolution shook up the geopolitical map. Rebuilding Venezuela’s fractured relations in the hemisphere remains its chief foreign policy challenge.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
3. CAN ISRAEL REMAIN BOTH NEUTRAL AND PART OF THE WEST?
- Author:
- Michael Barnett
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Israel is getting some unwanted attention because of its reluctance to outrightly condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No one believes that the failure to condemn translates into support for the attack. But Israel’s reticence has placed it in an awkward situation—one that might, in fact, translate into a loss of support from Western countries when Israel needs it most.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Conflict, Neutrality, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, and Eastern Europe
4. How Russia’s War Against Ukraine Will Affect Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region
- Author:
- Badri Belkania
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- On February 21, 2022, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, signed the document recognizing independence of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (Lenta, 2022) which was officially supported by the de facto leaders of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region. The de facto leadership of the Tskhinvali region, which recognized the DNR and LNR back in 2014, hailed President Putin’s decision of February 21 as an «expected, reasonable and justified» step (RIA Novosti, 2022). Russia’s move was also lauded by the de facto President of Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhania, who said the decision was «fair, geopolitically adequate» and in line with modern challenges and threats (TASS, 2022). In a few days, the de facto leader of Abkhazia signed the document recognizing independence of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (Ekho Kavkaza, 2022). The recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk is in itself a remarkable geopolitical step on the part of Russia which also brings significant changes in terms of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region. However, within days of its recognition, it became clear that Moscow needed the move as a launch pad for war in Ukraine. Consequently, the recognition of the de facto republics was accompanied by a Russian military aggression in Ukraine which, from the prospective of Sukhumi and Tskhinvali, changes even more than just the recognition of the Donbas region. As the domestic and foreign policy characteristics of Sukhumi and Tskhinvali differ, both will be discussed separately in this article.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Abkhazia
5. Armenia-Turkey Normalization Process: Opportunities and Barriers
- Author:
- Nino Chanadiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Armenia-Turkey relations have experienced numerous tensions over the decades associated with both the historic issues between the two nations and contemporary regional developments. Turkey’s refusal to recognize the mass killings of Armenians as a genocide1 in the Ottoman Empire during World War I has long been an important difficulty in bilateral relations. However, relations significantly worsened during the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the 1990s. As a response to Armenia’s capture of the territories surrounding NagornoKarabakh, Turkey closed the border with Armenia in 1993 in support of its ally Azerbaijan.2 The attempts to normalize relations did not have any fruitful outcome in the past decades which resulted in the two countries not having diplomatic or commercial relations for almost 30 years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Armenia
6. The rise of mega-regions
- Author:
- Zachary Paikan, Ilke Toygür, Martin Quencez, and Stephen R. Nagy
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- For the past several years, two ‘mega-regions’ have been forming in global politics – Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific. Both have become a shorthand for shaping the future rules and norms of international order in the face of a global power shift. ‘Eurasia’ has served to illustrate Moscow’s commitment to deepening its strategic partnership with Beijing and creating a new distribution of influence in world politics – one in which the West lies at the periphery rather than the centre. Meanwhile, the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ has taken off in response to the deepening Sino-American rivalry and (disputed) assertions of a budding global contest between democracies and autocracies. This CEPS In-Depth Analysis paper offers an overview of these two mega-regions, including the key geopolitical and governance questions that have been shaping them over recent years and whether great power dynamics in these theatres have shifted since the start of the Ukraine War. It concludes with observations on how these shifts stand to structure transatlantic relations beyond the horizon of the current war.
- Topic:
- Partnerships, Geopolitics, Alliance, Transatlantic Relations, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Indo-Pacific
7. The EU and the Ukraine War: Making Sense of the Rise of a “Geopolitical” Union
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- By ordering Russian armed forces into Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has arguably made the greatest blunder of his twenty-two-year long rule. The Russian president seems to have underestimated not just Ukraine’s capacity to resist the invasion, but also the resolve of the United States and its partners to oppose it.[1] If that is indeed the case, the greatest surprise must have come from the European Union.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
8. Blurry Counterterrorism: A Chance for Russia, A Risk for Europe
- Author:
- Miriam Heß
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The European Union should actively address the problematic use of counterterrorism by non-European states – especially Russia – and make it a permanent aspect in developing counterterrorism strategies and agendas. Failing to address the misuse of counterterrorism sends the wrong signal not only to those with reason to fear geopolitical interference by their countries of origin, but also to states that pursue “anti-terrorist-operations” in the form of abductions and executions abroad.
- Topic:
- European Union, Counter-terrorism, Geopolitics, and Risk
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
9. Germany Between a Rock and a Hard Place in China-US Competition
- Author:
- Markus Jaeger
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration has just issued its Interim National Security Strategic Guidance. The guidance document states the need to “build back better at home” and acknowledges that “international economic policies must serve all Americans” – a theme often referred to as “foreign policy for the middle class”. While the interim guidance does not preclude cooperation with China in selected policy areas, it is unambiguous in considering China a strategic competitor. The prospect of intensifying China-US geopolitical and (geo)economic competition is bad news for Germany, which has high value trading and investment relationships with both countries.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, National Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, Germany, North America, and United States of America
10. Hun Sen's Mistake? The Domestic Political Ramifications of His Chinese Shelter
- Author:
- Charles Dunst
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s close relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has led scholars and policymakers alike to suggest that Beijing’s backing will keep him in power. While Hun Sen himself seems to believe this to be true, his reliance on China is actually enflaming Cambodian discontent to such an extent that his planned patrimonial succession is at risk. Given the fragility of regimes mid-succession, Hun Sen’s Chinese shelter is augmenting the potential of his clan’s fall. Yet as Hun Sen faces increased domestic opposition, he will only further deepen ties with China in hopes of remaining in power, thereby creating a vicious cycle from which escaping will prove difficult.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Power Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia
11. Baku Parade Whispers Geopolitical Complexities in the South Caucasus
- Author:
- Rahim Rahimov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended a military parade in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku on December 10 to celebrate Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the war over the Karabakh region that ended with the Russia-brokered armistice on November 9-10. The Russian historian, Andrey Zubov, describes the Baku parade as an occasion “rather to celebrate the birth of a new geopolitical alliance than the victory over Armenia”1 . Following the parade, Russia imposed a ban on tomato imports from Azerbaijan in its flagship manner and Russian peacekeepers attempted to do something around the town of Shusha in Karabakh resembling what they have done in Georgia: “borderization”. Azerbaijani state TV, other media outlets and public figures widely and explicitly condemned such behavior of the Russian peacekeepers as a jealous response to the parade demonstration of Armenia’s Russian-made weapons and military equipment captured by the Azerbaijani armed forces or destroyed using Turkish-made Bayraktar drones . Erdogan and the Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, watched Turkish soldiers march alongside with Azerbaijanis on the central streets of Baku to the joy of local residents who took to the streets despite the COVID-19 related restrictions in order to salute them. This scene shows a major Russian weakness vis-àvis Turkey in Azerbaijan. Unlike Moscow, whose perception in Azerbaijan is controversial, Ankara enjoys nation-wide support. Recently leaked Russian secret files reveal that it is much more difficult for Moscow to develop proRussian civil society organizations and soft power instruments in Azerbaijan than even in staunchly pro-Western Georgia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Turkey, France, Georgia, and South Caucasus
12. The Regional Security Dynamics of the South Caucasus After the 2020 Karabakh War
- Author:
- Benyamin Poghosyan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- The 2020 Karabakh war has significantly shifted the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Armenia suffered a tough defeat while the non-recognized Republic of Artsakh (Republic of Nagorno Karabakh) lost almost 80 percent of its territories. Azerbaijan won a decisive victory and took not only territories outside of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAR) but 30 percent of NKAR itself. The November 10 trilateral statement signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia not only stopped the war in Karabakh but ushered in a new era in regional geopolitics.1 The key features of the new status quo are the increased role of Russia and Turkey and the significant reduction of Western involvement. However, the South Caucasus is far away from stability and, most probably, volatility will continue. We will seek to analyze the main interests of the key regional and external players and what may play out in a short/mid-term perspective.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
13. The European Perspective of the Anti-Western Information Warfare
- Author:
- Erekle Iantbelidze
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- The transfer of the international political reality to a new multi-polar prism makes geopolitics, as one of the directions of interdisciplinary education, more important in the current situation. The development of digital and scientific technologies has moved the phenomenon of the balance of power to a new stage and for a number of states and intergovernmental organizations, the term geopolitics has become the flagship of security strategy, cultural domination and democratic processes. In terms of the new “geopolitical commission,” the action plan of Ursula von der Leyen rests on two main principles – Europe’s climate and digital transition (European Parliament, 2020). Therefore, in the conditions of a war of values, geopolitics and digitalization, technological development has become a super-important component that the European Union is attempting to bring to the forefront as it wrestles with the world’s foremost states (China, India, Russia, Turkey). As the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, stated, Europe must not become a playground for other great powers and it must take the role of a geopolitical leader in the world (Barigazzi, 2019). It must also be pointed out that the geopolitical nature of Europe also envisages the development and gradual expansion of its neighborhood policy. That said, the associated partners within the Eastern Partnership (EaP) format (Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine) have bigger ambitions and goals than the development of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and the full implementation of the Association Agreement (AA) (European Commission, 2019).
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, and Free Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe
14. China: Rise or Demise?
- Author:
- John Mueller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- China, even if it rises, does not present much of a security threat to the United States. Policymakers increasingly view China’s rapidly growing wealth as a threat. China currently ranks second, or perhaps even first, in the world in gross domestic product (although 78th in per capita GDP), and the fear is that China will acquire military prowess commensurate with its wealth and feel impelled to carry out undesirable military adventures. However, even if it continues to rise, China does not present much of a security threat to the United States. China does not harbor Hitler‐style ambitions of extensive conquest, and the Chinese government depends on the world economy for development and the consequent acquiescence of the Chinese people. Armed conflict would be extremely—even overwhelmingly—costly to the country and, in particular, to the regime in charge. Indeed, there is a danger of making China into a threat by treating it as such and by engaging in so‐called balancing efforts against it. Rather than rising to anything that could be conceived to be “dominance,” China could decline into substantial economic stagnation. It faces many problems, including endemic (and perhaps intractable) corruption, environmental devastation, slowing growth, a rapidly aging population, enormous overproduction, increasing debt, and restive minorities in its west and in Hong Kong. At a time when it should be liberalizing its economy, Xi Jinping’s China increasingly restricts speech and privileges control by the antiquated and kleptocratic Communist Party over economic growth. And entrenched elites are well placed to block reform. That said, China’s standard of living is now the highest in its history, and it’s very easy to envision conditions that are a great deal worse than life under a stable, if increasingly authoritarian, kleptocracy. As a result, the Chinese people may be willing to ride with, and ride out, economic stagnation should that come about—although this might be accompanied by increasing dismay and disgruntlement. In either case—rise or demise—there is little the United States or other countries can or should do to affect China’s economically foolish authoritarian drive except to issue declarations of disapproval and to deal more warily. As former ambassador Chas Freeman puts it, “There is no military answer to a grand strategy built on a non‐violent expansion of commerce and navigation.” And Chinese leaders have plenty of problems to consume their attention. They scarcely need war or foreign military adventurism to enhance the mix. The problem is not so much that China is a threat but that it is deeply insecure. Policies of threat, balance, sanction, boycott, and critique are more likely to reinforce that condition than change it. The alternative is to wait, and to profit from China’s economic size to the degree possible, until someday China feels secure enough to reform itself.
- Topic:
- Government, GDP, Geopolitics, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
15. A Decade After the Uprising – The Yemen Review, March-April 2021
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Uprising
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
16. Phantom Empire: The Illusionary Nature of U.S. Military Power
- Author:
- Richard Hanania
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The U.S. has become a “Phantom Empire,” a country that appears to be powerful because it has a robust military presence abroad but cannot use garrisoned forces to achieve geopolitical objectives. More than 225,000 U.S. troops and DoD personnel are stationed abroad in more than 150 countries. The largest deployments are to wealthy U.S. allies (Japan, Germany, and South Korea) capable of defending themselves. U.S. leaders often justify military commitments by arguing they preserve “influence.” But because American leaders are committed, in most cases, to maintaining troops abroad as a good in and of itself, the U.S. squanders most of its leverage to influence hosts. Threats to withdraw troops are not credible, making them irrelevant for most U.S. geopolitical goals. The sources of U.S. power and influence are ultimately rooted in economic prosperity and soft power. A foreign policy that cultivates these sources of strength over maintaining military commitments would better achieve U.S. geopolitical goals.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Military
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
17. Russia’s Struggle to Gain Influence in Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Bennett Murray
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- As the United States and People’s Republic of China jostle for influence among member-states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Russian Federation has also declared the bloc a priority. Southeast Asian nations, in turn, would like third powers to counterbalance Beijing and Washington in the region. However, Russia has not made a huge impression in the bloc since its first summit with ASEAN in 2005. Economic success has been mostly limited to bilateral trade centered around arms sales, while security partnerships have not been forthcoming. Part of the problem is that Russia lacks historic ties in its former Cold War rivals, which are also ASEAN’s largest economic powerhouses, to lean on. More crucially, Southeast Asian nations perceive Moscow as deferential to Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions in the region.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Economic Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Asia, and Southeast Asia
18. The Geopolitics of Post-Brexit Britain
- Author:
- Geoffrey Sloan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- This essay draws on the author’s previous work, specifically: The Geopolitics of Anglo-Irish Relations in the 20th Century. The greatest failure of the European referendum campaign in 2016, which can be attributed to both sides, was the inability to articulate an understanding of Britain’s geopolitical relationship to Europe. By geopolitics, I do not mean its current usage: interpreted merely as a synonym for international strategic rivalry. I refer, instead, to classical geopolitics, which is a confluence of three subjects: geography, history, and strategy. It draws attention to certain geographical patterns of political history. It fuses spatial relationships and historical causation. It can produce explanations that suggest the contemporary and future political relevance of various geographical configurations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Britain and Europe
19. Toynbee Coronavirus Series: Dominic Sachsenmaier on China, geopolitics, and global history post-COVID-19
- Author:
- Dominic Sachsenmaier
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- Living through historically unprecedented times has strengthened the Toynbee Prize Foundation's commitment to thinking globally about history and to representing that perspective in the public sphere. In this multimedia series on the covid-19 pandemic, we will be bringing global history to bear in thinking through the raging coronavirus and the range of social, intellectual, economic, political, and scientific crises triggered and aggravated by it. Dominic Sachsenmaier, the President of the Toynbee Prize Foundation, is Chair Professor of Modern China with a Special Emphasis on Global Historical Perspectives in the Department of East Asian Studies at the University of Göttingen. His expertise centers on global and transnational Chinese history, with a focus on Chinese concepts of society and multiple modernities, among other topics. He is co-editor of the Columbia University Press book series “Columbia Studies in International and Global History“ and an elected member of the European Academy of Sciences and Arts.
- Topic:
- Health, International Affairs, Geopolitics, Global Focus, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Global Focus
20. Toynbee Coronavirus Series: Erez Manela on the WHO, smallpox eradication, and the need for renewed internationalism
- Author:
- Erez Manela
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- Living through historically unprecedented times has strengthened the Toynbee Prize Foundation's commitment to thinking globally about history and to representing that perspective in the public sphere. In this multimedia series on the covid-19 pandemic, we will be bringing global history to bear in thinking through the raging coronavirus and the range of social, intellectual, economic, political, and scientific crises triggered and aggravated by it. Erez Manela researches international society and the modern international order. Recently he has written about smallpox and the globalization of development, illuminating the power structures and international infrastructure that underwrote the World Health Organization’s (WHO) smallpox eradication program from 1965 to 1980. Professor of History at Harvard University, Prof. Manela teaches the history of the United States in the world and modern international history, and is the Director of Graduate Programs at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard and co-chair of the Harvard International and Global History seminar. He co-edits the Cambridge University book series ‘Global and International History.’
- Topic:
- Health, World Health Organization, Geopolitics, Public Health, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
21. Toynbee Coronavirus Series—Global History Forum: Jeremy Adelman, Or Rosenboim, Jamie Martin, Cindy Ewing, and Akita Shigeru
- Author:
- Jeremy Adelman, Or Rosenboim, Jamie Martin, Cindy Ewing, and Akita Shigeru
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- Living through historically unprecedented times has strengthened the Toynbee Prize Foundation's commitment to thinking globally about history and to representing that perspective in the public sphere. In this multimedia series on the COVID-19 pandemic, we will be bringing global history to bear in thinking through the raging coronavirus and the range of social, intellectual, economic, political, and scientific crises triggered and aggravated by it.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
22. Toynbee Coronavirus Series—Global Historians Analyze the Pandemic: Glenda Sluga, Jie-Hyun Lim, Lauren Benton, and Hsiung Ping-chen
- Author:
- Glenda Sluga, Jie-Hyun Lim, Lauren Benton, and Hsiung Ping-chen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- Living through historically unprecedented times has strengthened the Toynbee Prize Foundation's commitment to thinking globally about history and to representing that perspective in the public sphere. In this multimedia series on the COVID-19 pandemic, we will be bringing global history to bear in thinking through the raging coronavirus and the range of social, intellectual, economic, political, and scientific crises triggered and aggravated by it.
- Topic:
- History, Geopolitics, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
23. Erdoğan’s “Mini Empire” in Libya and Syria
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Turkeyscope Dr. Soner Cagaptay analyzes the evolution of Turkey's foreign policy with respect to both Syria and Libya.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria
24. Russia’s Shift from “Greater Europe” to “Greater Asia”
- Author:
- Emil Avdaliani
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- Though analysts tend to portray Russia’s foreign policy as truly global (that is, independent of Europe, the US, and China), the country is plainly tilting toward Asia. The Russian political elite does its best to hide this development, but the country is accumulating more interests and freedom to act in Asia than in Europe or anywhere else.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Geopolitics, and Global Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia
25. Erdoğan Battles on Multiple Fronts in Risky Regional Power Bid
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is at odds with just about everybody. He is on opposite sides with Russia in Syria as well as Libya and is trying the patience of his US and European allies. Turkey and Russia are testing the limits of what was always at best an opportunistic, fragile partnership aimed at capitalizing on a seemingly diminishing US interest in the Middle East, already evident under President Barack Obama and continuing under Donald Trump, who is haphazardly redefining what he sees as America’s national interests.
- Topic:
- Security, Geopolitics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, and Syria
26. The Battle for Libya: The UAE Calls the Shots
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- Last week’s inauguration of a new Egyptian military base on the Red Sea was heavy with the symbolism of the rivalries shaping the future of the Middle East as well as north and east Africa.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Libya, United Arab Emirates, and Red Sea
27. Next Steps for US-Japan Collaboration on Energy Infrastructure
- Author:
- Courtney Weatherby
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has re-centered discussion of geopolitical competition in Asia around infrastructure. Responding both to BRI and the region’s well-known infrastructure gap, the United States has launched efforts to unlock US private investment for infrastructure. Japan’s engagements in the region emphasize high-quality infrastructure and best practices (an implicit criticism of China’s sometimes less rigorous standards). The foreign policy approaches of the United States and Japan dovetail nicely and have led to many new initiatives and institutional partnerships, as well as the quality-focused Blue Dot Network. But despite the two countries’ intentions to work collaboratively, their efforts have been held back by differences in organizational practices, the lengthy overhaul of US financing, and a lack of immediate movement from US-Japan consortia. For now, a less ambitious approach of closely coordinating technical assistance and conditional funding on proposed projects may serve as a model for closer US-Japan collaboration as efforts mature.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Renewable Energy, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America
28. In search of a European Russia strategy
- Author:
- Tony van der Togt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- A global multilateral rules-based order, supported by a pro-active and interventionist United States, is gradually being replaced by a more fragmented world, in which geopolitics and geo-economics are becoming the dominant factors and universal rules, norms, and values are increasingly questioned. For the EU such developments are particularly challenging, as it has long perceived itself as a post-Westphalian soft power, mainly projecting its norms and values in its relations with both its direct neighbors and the world at large. A more isolationist US, a more assertive Russia, and the growing global influence of China have raised questions about the EU’s place and role in the world, which become even more pertinent after Brexit. Therefore, Commission President Von der Leyen intends to lead a “geopolitical Commission” and we are hearing calls for European strategic autonomy or even strategic sovereignty.
- Topic:
- International Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
29. China is Not Conducting Debt Trap Diplomacy in the Pacific--At Least Not Yet
- Author:
- Jonathan Pryke
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In an atmosphere of heightened geostrategic competition, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has raised questions about the risk of debt problems in less-developed countries. Such risks are especially worrying for the small and fragile economies of the Pacific. A close look at the evidence suggests that China has not been engaged in debt-trap diplomacy in the Pacific, at least not so far. Nonetheless, if future Chinese lending continues on a business-as-usual basis, serious problems of debt sustainability will arise, and concerns about quality and corruption are valid.There have been recent signs that both China and Pacific Island governments recognize the need for reform. China needs to adopt formal lending rules similar to those of the multilateral development banks, providing more favorable terms to countries at greater risk of debt distress. Alternative approaches might include replacing or partially replacing EXIM loans with the interest-free loans and grants that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce already provides.
- Topic:
- Debt, Development, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Asia-Pacific
30. "Coronationalism" vs a geopolitical Europe? EU external solidarity at the time of Covid-19
- Author:
- Christian Kvorning Lassen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- Christian Kvorning Lassen from EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy together with Jan Kovář from Institute of International Relations Prague wrote a commentary "Czechia: This Covid-19 environment is not conducive to external solidarity" for the EPIN Report publication, concerned with EU external solidarity at the time of Covid-19. EU member states have been discussing how to collectively deal with the socioeconomic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic. As major debates continue to take place about internal solidarity, the question arises how the EU and its member states wish to support third countries, outside the EU, in tackling their health and economic emergencies. On the one and, the EU wishes to become a geopolitical power, which requires that the Union and its member states step up their role and support on the global scene. On the other hand, there are signs of ‘coronationalism’ with some national political parties questioning EU external aid at a time when member states themselves are struggling. Based on expert contributions from a representative cross-section of thirteen member states, this report delves into the question of whether and how external solidarity has been part of the political or public debates in Covid-struck Europe. It finds that, for now, neither ‘coronationalist’ nor geopolitical ambitions dominate the relatively little politicized debates about international cooperation and development aid.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Foreign Aid, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
31. From Strategic Autonomy to the Internationalization of the Euro: Europe's Challenges and the Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis
- Author:
- Nicola Bilotta and Alissa Siara
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- One of the key priorities of the new European Commission is to enhance the EU’s geopolitical credentials and “learn to use the language of power”, as stated by the incoming EU High Representative Josep Borrell. The EU’s ambition is two-fold: to increase the Union’s ability to project power and influence at the global level, including through increased integration and coordination among member states, and secondly to enhance the EU’s strategic autonomy from the US in the political, military and economic domains. Both objectives, ambitious in the best of circumstances, are today under severe strain by the COVID-19 crisis. Implications will be long-lasting and multidimensional, and for Europe, its impact will have a direct bearing on its ambition for strategic autonomy, touching each of the three pillars outlined above.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Economy, Autonomy, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Europe and European Union
32. China: Economy, Energy and the Middle East
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Paul Rivlin analyzes the economic background of China's involvement in the Middle East. Several key questions arise with respect to China’s economic involvement in the Middle East: What are China’s interests in the Middle East? How far are they dominated by its energy needs? How are they affected by its relations with the United States?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Geopolitics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Middle East
33. The Oil Market Swings: Shale and Geo-politics
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Paul Rivlin analyzes possible future directions for the global oil market, against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East and elsewhere.
- Topic:
- Development, Energy Policy, Oil, Global Markets, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
34. The Phenomenon of “Global Russia”
- Author:
- Emil Avdaliani
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- As Russia increases its geopolitical involvement across the globe, the concept of “Global Russia” has been gradually taking hold. Though Russia is inherently weak, it is likely that Moscow will continue its global initiatives throughout the 2020s. Only by the end of that decade and into the next is there likely to be a gradual decline in Russia’s adventurism abroad.
- Topic:
- International Affairs, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and Global Focus
35. Kremlin Coups Turned Democratic Revolutions
- Author:
- Jiri Valenta
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- The revolution that took place in the Czech Republic thirty years ago was not just the work of Vaclav Havel and his Charter 77 followers. The spark was a KGB coup directed by General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev. A Kremlin coup also helped spur revolutionary change in Germany. The late 1980s saw unprecedented power struggles within the Soviet elite and Politburo under Gorbachev.
- Topic:
- History, Geopolitics, Coup, and Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Czech Republic
36. Straightening Out Russian Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Emil Avdaliani
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- Russian foreign policy since the mid-2000s tends to be perceived in contradictory terms: as either a negative for Russia or the product of a grand strategic vision on the part of the Russian leadership. It is also often falsely perceived as representing a break with the past. Moscow’s foreign policy moves need to be viewed with a balanced perspective and should be placed in their historical context.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, History, Geopolitics, and Grand Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
37. Strengthening US Relations with ASEAN: A Critical Element of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy
- Author:
- East-West Wire
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- With a population of 650 million and an annual GDP of $2.8 trillion, ASEAN is a key component of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. Two visitors to the East-West Center, Kavi Chongkittavorn and Anu Anwar, emphasized that the United States needs to take several steps to strengthen working relations with ASEAN. Priorities for the Trump administration include: Attend the annual ASEAN-sponsored East Asia Summit; Establish personal rapport with ASEAN leaders; Participate actively in all ASEAN-led mechanisms, including the ASEAN Regional Forum, the ASEAN Defense Ministerial Meeting Plus, and the Lower Mekong Initiative; Appoint an American envoy to ASEAN, a position that has been vacant for more than 30 months; Maintain the ASEAN-focused programs and activities initiated under previous US administrations; Expand educational, cultural, and youth programs; Strengthen the US-ASEAN security commitment, in particular maritime and cyber security.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
38. Ocean of Debt? Belt and Road and Debt Diplomacy in the Pacific
- Author:
- Roland Rajah, Alexandre Dayant, and Jonathan Pryke
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- China has not been engaged in debt trap diplomacy — at least not yet. China has not been the primary driver behind rising debt risks in the Pacific, although a continuation of business as usual would risk future debt problems in several countries. There is scope for a new Australian infrastructure financing facility to provide loans to the Pacific without causing debt problems, particularly as it has adopted key sustainable lending rules. Pacific nations have an opportunity to obtain more favourable financing from official development partners but care must be taken to avoid overly geopolitical aid.
- Topic:
- Debt, Development, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific
39. Once More With Feeling: Russia and the Asia-Pacific
- Author:
- Bobo Lo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The rise of Asia is the central challenge of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy, calling into question long-standing assumptions about Russia’s place in the world. Moscow is now more committed to engagement with the Asia-Pacific than it has ever been. This reflects belated recognition of the region’s critical importance in global affairs. Russia’s ambition to become a major player in the Asia-Pacific faces considerable hurdles. Overcoming them will depend on larger changes in its foreign policy mindset — an uncertain prospect at best.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, and Vladimir Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Asia-Pacific
40. Israel and China Take a Leap Forward—but to Where?
- Author:
- Arthur Herman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- There is certainly no denying that, in terms of trade and investment alone, the burgeoning economic partnership between Israel and China has at least the potential of transforming not only Israel itself but also Israel’s position vis-à-vis the rest of the Middle East—and most notably vis-à-vis Iran, which happens to be Beijing’s other key partner in the region. Inevitably, it could also have an impact on Israel’s relations with the United States. But is this a marriage made in heaven? Or is it something else? Weighing the answer to that question involves probing beneath the two countries’ currently successful dynamic of trade and commercial transactions to their respective geopolitical agendas. When it comes to Israel, the acknowledged junior partner, it also requires examining whether and how the relationship with China could become a dependency. Such a change might please Beijing, but it would impose on Israeli national security a new kind of vulnerability, one very different from the challenges it has faced successfully in the past.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, and Asia
41. Britain Expels Russian Diplomats for Keeping Geopolitical Status
- Author:
- Wu Fei
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- UK has far-reaching strategic objectives to expel Russian diplomats for espionage. It has been aggressive to Russia for fear of a huge fall in its geopolitical status. Britain issued an ultimatum to the Russia after Skripal, the former Russian double agent, and his daughter Yulia were found poisoned and unconscious in Britain on 12 March. With no response from Russia, the Britain Prime Minister Theresa immediately announced that they will expel 23 Russian diplomats and command their departure in a week after report to Congress. Russia just indicates that they will take the same move as well.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Intelligence, Geopolitics, and Soviet Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, and France
42. Endless Endgame: Whither Russia-West Confrontation?
- Author:
- Elkhan Nuriyev
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- There are so many global threats impacting the future of the Earth but Western democracies fear only one person – Vladimir Putin. That’s because on almost all geopolitical fronts of the emerging multipolar world, Russian President is deftly striking a blow against the collective challenge mounted by the West. It is thus no surprise that the West’s endless dread of Russia’s military power has made Putin the world’s most powerful man. What’s happening in West-Russia relations right now is not a new Cold War. It is not even a renewed East-West divide. It is rather an incredibly high-stakes geopolitical grand game fueled by decades of long-time mutual distrust and competing great power interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
43. Towards Greater Eurasian security architecture
- Author:
- Daria Kazarinova
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- t the end of the second decade of the 21st century, problems of global security have become the main issues on the agenda of all regions of the world. Russia’s relations with the West have already entered the stage of the so-called new Cold War “with the elements of arms race, remilitarization and the split of the European continent, under the severance of political and economic contacts between the leaders of rival countries and the degradation of diplomacy”.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Eurasia
44. The "Moving Geography": Why are Scandinavian countries increasingly interested in the Middle East?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The dynamics of the Middle East region have gained special attention from the three Scandinavian countries (Norway, Sweden and Denmark) over the past years. There are numerous indicators for this rising level of interest. The most prominent of which are the establishment of institutes for dialogue and cooperation, launching programs for the Danish-Arab partnership, opening Middle East studies center in a Swedish university, and hosting a new round of dialogue for the parties to the Yemeni conflict. Other indicators include providing funds to support future local elections in Libya, supporting non-governmental organizations aimed at assisting internal displaced persons and refugees through local integration or resettlement, and increasing financial incentives for refugees, who return to their home countries. There are various motives behind the Scandinavian interest in the region, including curbing refugee flows, preventing terrorist attacks, containing the threat of extremism, and confronting the Iranian threat.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Neutrality
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and Scandinavia
45. The "Mobile Militia": Will Iran Replicate the Hezbollah Model in Afghanistan?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The prospect of Iran replicating the Lebanese Hezbollah model in other countries can no longer be ruled out, amid the pressure of the new sanctions imposed on Tehran in the wake of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal on May 8, 2018. One of the objectives that Tehran may seek to achieve through such move is to exploit its regional influence to reduce the US pressure and, perhaps at a later stage, bolster its negotiating position versus Washington in any potential new negotiations. However, there are other objectives that Iran may try to achieve, if it decides to press ahead with this option, such as creating loyal military arms in Afghanistan. Hence, Iran will be able to possess instruments to influence the government decisions in the stage leading up to a settlement of the Afghan crisis, as well as enhance its prospects of participating in the efforts to reach such a settlement.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Geopolitics, Hezbollah, and Militias
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, and Middle East
46. Helsinki’s Interests: Why Does Finland Show Interest in the Middle East?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The recent years have witnessed a growing interest from Helsinki in the transformations and interactions of the Middle East, as evident in the inauguration of academic institutes in the region, visits by diplomatic and parliamentary delegations, activities with research centers, proposals for the resolution of conflicts between political parties, meetings between joint business councils and representatives of chambers of commerce and enhancing the cooperation with Arab intelligence agencies. The Finnish government has several objectives within this calculus.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Investment, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Finland, Libya, North Africa, and Syria
47. Could Trump Deliver Iran an Oil Windfall?
- Author:
- Richard Nephew
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The president’s recent statement that OPEC should reduce their prices may merely be an attempt to assign blame for rising gasoline prices in the midst of the US driving season or an even more cynical attempt to rally his political base in opposition to globalism. Or, it may have something to do with the president’s own decision to create a crisis with Iran. While attention is duly paid to how much Americans have to pay at the pump, a more subtle and complicated story will soon play out with respect to Iran and the reapplication of US sanctions ordered by Trump on May 8, 2018. In fact, unless oil prices are contained, the primary result of the president’s action may be to ensure that Iran profits from the oil market risks that sanctions have created.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Geopolitics, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America, Iran, and Global Focus
48. The United States, China, and Southeast Asia: Can ASEAN Find a New Strategic Equilibrium?
- Author:
- Kevin Rudd
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- U.S.-China relations have now entered into a new structural phase. Officially, the Americans describe this as a change from 40 years of “strategic engagement” to a new period of “strategic competition.” The precise definition of strategic competition, as an operational rather than a declaratory strategy, has yet to fully emerge. But we would be foolish not to recognize that there has been a fundamental systemic shift in U.S. sentiment toward China
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China
49. Safeguarding Australia's Security Interests Through Closer Pacific Ties
- Author:
- Greg Colton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Greater Australian engagement in the Pacific Islands region is needed if Canberra wants to ensure regional stability and underpin Australia’s national security. Inconsistent engagement by Australia, the United States, France and New Zealand in the Pacific Islands region has created space that non-traditional powers have exploited to engage with sovereign Pacific Island states. There is an increasing risk of geostrategic competition in the region, particularly with the growing influence of China and the economic leverage it holds over some indebted Pacific Island nations. The Australian Government should pursue a deliberate strategy of forging stronger links with its traditional partners in the region, and more equitable partnerships with its Pacific Island neighbours, if it is to underpin regional stability and strengthen Australia’s national security.
- Topic:
- International Relations, National Security, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, France, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America