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2051. Turkey’s coup attempt

Author:
Lauren Baker
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Late in the evening of July 15, a faction of the Turkish army blocked key bridges into Istanbul and occupied several locations throughout the country. The attempted coup failed before morning, but its consequences will reverberate far into the future. The government’s response was immediate and harsh: mass arrests and a purge of not only the military, but also civil servants, judges, academics, and political opponents. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned cleric Fethullah Gulen as the chief conspirator and demanded his extradition from self-imposed exile in the United States. Meanwhile, some opponents of Erdogan suggest that the government orchestrated the attempt as a “false flag” operation to consolidate power and crackdown on dissidents. Turkey is not new to coups, but looking at previous conflicts and the political science literature on coups can tell us why this failed attempt is unique and what its repercussions will be in Turkey and the broader Middle East. The pieces in POMEPS Briefing 30 offer insightful and timely analysis from top scholars of the region published in the Monkey Cage blog on the Washington Post.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey

2052. Iran’s 2016 election

Author:
Lauren Baker
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
On February 26, 2016, Iran held elections for its Assembly of Experts, the body tasked with choosing the next supreme leader, and the Islamic Consultative Assembly (its parliament or majlis). As the first major round of voting since 2015’s historic Joint Plan of Comprehensive Action nuclear agreement, the world watched the results closely — and Iran’s leaders leveraged this international focus. While many reformist candidates were barred from running, and those who did were censored on state media, new forms of communication and social media aided existing organizing networks for a strong showing for the reformist candidates, most notably in Tehran. Coalitions between moderates and reformists potentially herald a new era of politics in the Islamic Republic, though it has yet to be seen if these changes will translate mean greater democracy. POMEPS Briefing 29 collects a series of reflections from top regional scholars that provide political context and important analysis of these watershed elections
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Iran

2053. The Gulf’s Escalating Sectarianism

Author:
Lauren Baker
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
On January 2, Saudi Arabia executed 47 men, including prominent cleric and political activist Nimr al-Nimr. This sparked immediate backlash, especially among domestic and global Shiite communities. Unfortunately, such rising sectarian tensions are nothing new in the region. Although the media is quick to highlight the Sunni-Shiite divide, it generally points to this split as the root cause of conflicts. How are we to get beyond this primordialist rhetoric and study the real impacts and causes of sectarianism in the region? POMEPS Briefing 28, “The Gulf’s Escalating Sectarianism,” collects 16 pieces previously published by the Project on Middle East Political Science and the Monkey Cage to provide a more nuanced look of this divisive trend. There is a growing body of scholarship that places sectarianism within the study of comparative politics and international relations, rather than treating sectarian identity as an unchanging, essentialist trait. Authors in this collection demonstrate how political elites use sectarian language to legitimize authoritarian rule, consolidate power, and rally against internal and external foes. What appear on the surface as entrenched confessional divides are often more about political and economic power than religion. Interested readers should also look at the 2013 POMEPS Studies 4 “The Politics of Sectarianism,” much of which remains relevant today. Analysis of individual Gulf states’ domestic and geopolitical maneuvering supports this theoretical framework. In Saudi Arabia, the new leadership is able to refocus attention away from its international and domestic failures by increasing pressure on Shiite dissidents and provoking its main regional rival, Iran. And, in the wake of the nuclear agreement, the increasing Iranian influence gives Saudi Arabia another reason to amp up the sectarian vehemence. Meanwhile in Yemen, the labels of sectarianism fail to tell the whole story, while in Iraq and Syria violence in the name of sectarian identity continues to polarize and entrench both sides. The Arab uprisings challenged the traditional regional powers, and Sunni leaders continue to vie for prominence in this new order. Meanwhile, the increasing use of information technology and social media reinforces existing communities, while further polarizing users and citizens.
Topic:
International Affairs and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Gulf Nations

2054. The Greek Euro Tragedy

Author:
John Ryan
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
On 4 February 2015, the European Central Bank (ECB) unexpectedly and suddenly cancelled acceptance of Greek bonds as collateral for liquidity funding unless Greece obeyed the Troika agreement. The ECB’s irresponsible and incompetent actions call into question their respect for the Greek government’s attempts to resolve its debt crisis in a sustainable way. The ECB may or may not have good reasons to cut off Greece, depending on your point of view, but it is clear that such a move would be political. A central bank that is supposed to be the lender of last resort and guardian of financial stability would be taking a deliberate and calculated decision to undermine the Greek banking system. The ECB is now seen in some quarters as arrogant, unaccountable and authoritarian.1 This Strategic Update discusses the most recent problems for the Eurozone, namely the Greek crisis and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) lack of democratic accountability which has contributed to considerable difficulties for the stability of the Eurozone.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Greece

2055. ASEAN: In or Out? No Way…Not yet?

Author:
Tan Sri Munir Majid
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
While the close British decision to get out of the European Union was made in a referendum a while ago on 23 June, there is still the feeling in the UK: What have we done? Where do we go? How do we get there? Questions that should have been asked at the referendum, rather than after it. But there you are. When raw emotion and shallow argument reign, profound decisions are made without proper reflection or preparation. Since then the question has also been raised whether or not such a thing could occur in ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It won’t but then again it may. First of all, let’s be clear. It is not likely there will ever be such a surplus of democracy in ASEAN, whether among individual member states or as a group, that there could be an ‘In or Out’ referendum like the one which resulted in Brexit.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Affairs, Global Markets, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

2056. Brexit: What Happens Next?

Author:
Tim Oliver
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
A British withdrawal from the EU would be a process not an event. This Strategic Update sets out the nine overlapping series of negotiations that would be triggered and the positions the 27 remaining EU countries and the EU’s institutions would take, gathered from a network of researchers across the continent.
Topic:
Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain and European Union

2057. A EU without the UK: The Geopolitics of a British Exit from the EU

Author:
Tim Oliver
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
A vote by the British people to withdraw from the EU – also known as a ‘Brexit’ – will have significant implications for the EU, the ideas and structures of European integration, and European geopolitics. Opinion polls show that a vote to withdraw is a distinct possibility. The EU, the rest of Europe, allies around the world and the UK itself need to prepare for the wider international implications of such a move. This Strategic Update examines how likely a Brexit is and explores what it could mean for the EU, European integration, and Europe’s economics and security.
Topic:
Geopolitics and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain and European Union

2058. Obama’s Legacy on Israel/ Palestine

Author:
Josh Reubner
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
his retrospective assessment argues that despite the arrival in office in 2009 of a president who articulated the case for Palestinian rights more strongly and eloquently than any of his predecessors, U.S. official policy in the Obama years skewed heavily in favor of Israel. While a negotiated two-state resolution of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians continued to be the formal goal of the United States, Israel’s defiant refusal to stop settlement expansion, the administration’s determined actions to perpetuate Israeli impunity in international fora, as well as the U.S. taxpayer’s hefty subsidy of the Israeli military machine all ensured that no progress could be made on that score. The author predicts that with all hopes of a negotiated two-state solution now shattered, Obama’s successor will have to contend with an entirely new paradigm, thanks in no small part to the gathering momentum of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
America, Israel, and Palestine

2059. The 2016 U.S. Presidential Campaign: Changing Discourse on Palestine

Author:
Phyllis Bennis
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
This essay examines the discourse on Palestine/Israel in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, charting the impact of the Palestine rights movement on the domestic U.S. policy debate. Policy analyst, author, and long-time activist Phyllis Bennis notes the sea change within the Democratic Party evident in the unprecedented debate on the issue outside traditionally liberal Zionist boundaries. The final Democratic platform was as pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian as any in history, but the process of getting there was revolutionary in no small part, Bennis argues, due to the grassroots campaign of veteran U.S. senator Bernie Sanders. Bennis also discusses the Republican platform on Israel/Palestine, outlining the positions of the final three Republican contenders. Although she is clear about the current weakness of the broad antiwar movement in the United States, Bennis celebrates its Palestinian rights component and its focus on education and BDS to challenge the general public’s “ignorance” on Israel/ Palestine.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Israel and Palestine

2060. Might and Right in World Politics

Author:
Dr. Jan (eds) Woischnik and Dr Jans Woischnik
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
In the last decade of the 20th century, when the Cold War came to an end, there was a growing understanding that International Law was consolidated as legitimation body for state actions. It was the begin- ning of a new peaceful world order, the world hoped that an old problem of geopolitics could finally be fully addressed by the International Law, a problem which the Athenian General Thucydides observed already more than 2000 years ago, according to which in the realm of the international, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”. In this new world order right was supposed to finally come before might.
Topic:
International Law, Political Theory, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2061. 2016 Presidential Race Reveals the Systemic Crisis in American Society

Author:
Andrey Korobkov
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
The 2016 electoral campaign outcome came like a complete bolt out of the blue for the American establishment, including the ruling elites, as well as academics, journalists, and other groups safeguarding the elites’ interests. Ironically, the showy campaign and the scandalous behavior of US billionaire and TV star Donald Trump, now 45th President-elect, overshadowed the fact that such a candidate per se exposed a deep systemic crisis in American society. Both the general public and professionals had overlooked the phenomenon. The crisis is caused by the exhausted potential of the US political and socio-economic system, which took shape in the 1960s and is over 50 years old. That is why the problems that the campaign laid bare will not merely fade away after the elections.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, International Affairs, and Elections
Political Geography:
America

2062. Beyond the confrontation. Interview with Edward Luttwak

Author:
Edward Luttwak
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
In the recent months the US-Russian relations have been in this weird place where Russia suddenly emerged again as a topic of a heated and very controversial electoral campaign and again in a form of an Evil Empire. The relations have been strained since 2014 following the events in Crimea, Ukraine and the sanctions rounds even though the same two countries managed to cooperate around Iran, and were rubbing shoulders in Syria. The recent storm has been caused by the leakage of the Democratic party emails, allegedly done by Moscow with the end goal to undermine Hillary Clinton (who is holding firm anti-Russian position) and support Donald Trump (who has praised Vladimir Putin in the past). With the elections taking place this week, Rethinking Russia spoke to an influential Republican geostrategist, CSIS senior associate Edward Luttwak about the current state of the Russian-American elections.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia and America

2063. Less is Better in US-Russian Relations Today

Author:
Thomas Graham
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
Beware of rapid improvement in US-Russian relations. It cannot be sustained, and it always ends in sorrow for both countries. That at least is the history of relations since the end of the Cold War, to which each American president – Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama – can attest.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia and America

2064. The Battle for Syria

Author:
Christopher Phillips
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
Military conflict in Syria is in its 5th year. What was initially seen as another strike of the wave of democratization known as the “Arab Spring” has now become an extremely complicated multi-level regional conflict, where authorities in Damascus, estranged from the Western countries, are fighting against several groups, including ISIS1. The international dimension of the Syrian conflict is usually seen as the reluctance of the USA to get engaged, and Russia’s readiness to do just the opposite – while many other regional players get lost in the background. In order to establish different patterns and to articulate the plurality of motives that guided international actors, Rethinking Russia spoke to Christopher Phillips – senior lecturer at the School of Politics and International Relations at Queen Mary University and associate fellow at the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, who just published a meticulously researched book “The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East” that documents the international dimension of the conflict.
Topic:
Civil War, International Security, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

2065. Comments Following Hot on the Heels of Donald Trump’s Triumph

Author:
Andrey Korobkov
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
The 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential elections were held on November 8, 2016. Republican Donald Trump won the White House. Following the elections, «Rethinking Russia» think-tank has collected a set of comments by Russian and foreign experts.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
America

2066. Moldova to choose between East and West

Author:
Danielle Ryan
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
As the world comes to terms with the knowledge that Donald Trump will soon be handed the keys to the White House, Moldovans are preparing to vote in a runoff presidential election which will set their country either on a firmly pro-Western course or on the path toward better relations with Russia.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
America and Moldavia

2067. Overcoming Babylon

Author:
Yan Vaslavskiy
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
The 13th Valdai Discussion Club session was held in Sochi October 24-27. Ever since its establishment in 2004, the Club has gained the reputation, first of all, as a forum for Russian and foreign experts to compare notes on a wide range of international issues. Secondly, the President of Russia drops into the exclusive club on quite a regular basis.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia

2068. Primakov Readings

Author:
Tatyana Alekseeva
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
The International Primakov Readings Forum took place November 29-30, 2016, in commemoration of Yevgeny Primakov. The meeting was organized by the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO led by Alexander Dynkin) and was backed by the World Trade Center, the Russian Science Foundation, the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, and the University of Pennsylvania. In his address to the Forum, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin argued that Primakov had succeeded in predicting the events unfolding in today’s world, especially in the Middle East. As the Head of State put it, “Actually, I was always taking heed of Primakov’s assessments, as he was a wise and astute diplomat. I trusted him and asked to accomplish responsible and sensitive missions rather than ordered him”. Besides, the Primakov Readings Conference brought together Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chair of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko, and President’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov who delivered an opening speech. The Forum was also attended by most leading experts on international relations. The Rethinking Russia Think Tank presents the comment of Tatyana Alekseeva, a participant of the Primakov Readings Forum.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia and Global Focus

2069. Russophrenia: western elites ignore their own citizens’ anger and blame Russia instead

Author:
Bryan MacDonald
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
At the start of 1917, rumours reached London that something was stirring in Petrograd (now St. Petersburg). As a result, the concerned Prime Minister, David Lloyd George, urgently dispatched Lord Milner, a diplomat of some repute, to the Russian capital. His Lordship visited the Tsar and spoke to ministers and members of the Duma, who informed him that enemies of the state were spreading groundless yarns. Sadly, being a creature of his class, Milner believed that only the elites mattered so he neglected to consult any of the general public. Thus, cocooned in his bubble, the peer reported to London that there was nothing the government could not handle and no need to expect no major changes. However, the same British travelling party also included Lloyd George’s private secretary Philip Kerr. A little more clued in, Kerr walked the streets and interviewed the plain folk. Armed with their predictions, he sent a telegram to Downing Street which asserted that Russia was on the verge of an unstoppable revolution. As it happens, the man who stepped out of the comfort zone was right because Nikolai II was shorn of his crown before the British delegation made it home. We know this story because many years later the ‘Welsh Wizard,’ Lloyd George, revealed the details to Ivan Maisky, the Soviet ambassador to London. And almost a hundred years later, it is a salutary lesson in the dangers of the establishment refusing to acknowledge ordinary people’s concerns when evaluating the causes of political upheaval.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia and Global Focus

2070. Extorted procurement-how local authorities unlawfully procure equipment for firefighters

Author:
Dejan Skoric
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
Applying the "PRO-CURE" methodology, Dejan Skoric from the Association Resource Centre Majdanpek, conducted an analysis of the expediency of the spending of public funds from the budgets of local governments for the purchase of fire-fighting vehicles and equipment.
Topic:
Corruption and National Security
Political Geography:
Serbia

2071. Road safety in Serbia: a priority or a neglected area?

Author:
Ana Aćimov
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The case study applies "PRO-CURE" methodology to analyse performance of expenditures for equipping the traffic police at the local level. The author particularly questions the difference between the proclaimed strategic priorities of the Ministry of Interior and its annual procurement plans, as well as the the distribution of the burden of financing the traffic police between Ministry of Interior and local governments.
Topic:
Finance
Political Geography:
Serbia

2072. Why doesn’t hail protection in Serbia work?

Author:
Miroslav Mijatović
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
Applying the "PRO-CURE" methodology for assessing the procurement expediency, Miroslav Mijatovic of Podrinjski Anti-Corruption Tim Loznica, conducted a study on the procurement of anti-hail rockets in Loznica in 2014 and 2015. In this study the author has also provided an overview of the overall state of hail protection in Serbia, as well as recommendations for improvement of this system.
Topic:
Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Serbia

2073. The everyday and the existential: how Clinton and Trump challenge transatlantic relations

Author:
Jeremy Shapiro
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The transatlantic relationship is likely to face difficult challenges whatever the result of the US election. If Trump wins he will launch a revolutionary presidency — pulling back from NATO and other security guarantees, undermining key parts of the global free trade regime and building closer relations with strong-man leaders than allies. Even if Hillary is elected the transatlantic relationship could still face difficult albeit more everyday challenges. Her poor relations with Moscow, exacerbated by gender issues, could threaten transatlantic unity on Russia. Europe would be foolish not to learn lessons from the experience of Trump’s candidacy. Trump represents only an extreme version of a growing feeling in the United States that, in a time of relative decline, the country is getting a raw deal from its allies. The EU should not be complacent in assuming that the transatlantic relationship will continue as it is and should begin to take more responsibility for its own defence and build resilience against a potentially more self-interested US.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2074. Aligning Unevenly: India and the United States

Author:
Dinshaw Mistry
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In the early and mid-2000s, US policymakers anticipated India becoming one of America's top global partners. Have New Delhi's policies on key strategic issues actually aligned strongly with US objectives, as would be typical of close partners? An analysis of twelve prominent issues in US-India relations indicates that New Delhi's policies mostly converged moderately, rather than to a high extent, with US objectives. Specifically, the alignment between New Delhi's policies and US objectives was high or moderate-to-high on three issues--UN peacekeeping, nonproliferation export controls, and arms sales. It was moderate or low-to-moderate on six issues--China, Iran, Afghanistan, Indian Ocean security, Pakistan, and bilateral defense cooperation. And it was low or negligible on three issues--nuclear reactor contracts for US firms, nuclear arms control, and the war in Iraq. To be sure, despite the low or negligible convergence, New Delhi did not take an anti-US position on these issues.
Topic:
International Relations and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
America and India

2075. Expert Consensus on Downscaled Climate Projections for the Main Hawaiian Islands

Author:
PIRCA
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
To better understand impacts of climate change across diverse sectors in Hawaii, resource managers and scientists collaborate with climate modelers who create projections of future climate conditions, such as changes in patterns of rainfall and temperature at the end of the 21st century. To make global climate projections applicable for Hawaii, the models must be downscaled (see Figure 1) to provide increased spatial detail for resource managers and cultural stewards. Different methods and models are used, and because these are projections for many decades from now, the results often span a range of possibilities. A Workshop held in September 2015 brought climate modelers and resource managers together to discuss areas of agreement about different aspects of climate projection. The purpose of this document is to summarize levels of expert consensus across different climate projections, and to offer guidance for resource managers, cultural stewards, and community leaders to better understand applications and limitations of available projections for the State.
Topic:
Climate Change
Political Geography:
Hawaii

2076. Between Geopolitics and Transformation: Challenges and Perspectives for the Eastern Partnership

Author:
Hans Martin Sieg
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) faces a double challenge. The transformation of post-Soviet countries it was designed to support has largely failed to emerge. In its place, a conflict with Russia has arisen for which the EaP was unprepared. This spells a dilemma. Rather than support EaP governments on the basis of their reform records, the EU is tempted to back them for the geopoli- tical choices they have made (namely, for their professed pro-European positions). In the long run, however, the EaP cannot succeed without delivering on its “trans- formational agenda.” Even in countries that have already signed Association Ag- reements with the EU, the ultimate success of the EaP is in question. This analysis describes the EaP’s “transformational challenge.” It argues that geopolitical com- petition with Russia was neither avoidable nor will it be easy to overcome. The key obstacle to change, however, is not geopolitical competition but the veto power of vested interests within EaP countries themselves. Since this veto power marks a crucial difference from conditions that prevailed in EU enlargements in Central Europe, the EaP’s response must apply a different transformational logic. The EU must go beyond merely supporting reforms in the EaP and effectively take co- responsibility for them. This involves upgrading the principle of conditionality and getting involved more directly in implementation. The paper concludes by stressing the importance of human resources in state institutions and proposes concrete measures for appointing and retaining qualified personnel and, particularly, inde- pendent leaders for key law enforcement and regulatory bodies.
Topic:
Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

2077. Youth Unemployment and Job Insecurity in Spain Problems and Policy Options

Author:
Maria Ramos and Carlos Victoria
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Youth unemployment rates in Spain are considerably higher than the European average. Moreover, those young people who do have jobs generally work under extremely unstable conditions on temporary contracts. Most of these temporary contracts are “involuntary” – workers would prefer to nd permanent jobs but are unable to do so. The consequences of this job insecurity in Spain are dramatic. Across the educational spectrum, young workers are at greater risk of remaining unemployed, getting stuck in temporary contracts for long periods of time, experiencing wage penalties, or being over-quali ed for their jobs. The crisis has increased the overall risk of long-term poverty and social exclusion, particularly for youth with migrant backgrounds and those who are not in education, employ- ment, or training. The paper concludes by outlining the three most urgent objec- tives for the Spanish labor market today: bridging the gap between education and work; developing active labor market policies; and reducing labor market segmen- tation between workers with temporary and permanent contracts and between “insiders” and “outsiders.”
Topic:
Youth Culture and Employment
Political Geography:
Spain

2078. Reforms, New Elites, and Old Structures How to Win the Battle for a New Ukraine?

Author:
Iryna Solonenko
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
In the two years since its “Revolution of Dignity” – also known as Euromaidan – Ukraine has launched important reform initiatives. Most of them are still in the inception phase, however, and much remains to be done to ensure their sustainability. The past two years have made clear the enormity of the challenge Ukraine faces in its transformation. At the same time, it has also shown unprece- dentedly strong determination on the part of new reform-minded actors to overhaul the old system. Ukraine today can best understood as a battlefield: the old system and its structures are fighting for their survival, as new actors – from both within the system and outside it – push for a new social contract. This struggle is taking place on an everyday basis at different levels, national and local, in a number of different reform areas. External actors can best contribute by giving stronger sup- port to reformers while promoting development of institutions that limit the space for vested interests to persist. Special attention should be paid to enforcing and implementing already adopted decisions and new laws that change the rules of the game.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Ukraine

2079. A New Helsinki Needed? What Security Model for Europe?

Author:
Stefan Meister
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The Germany-Poland-Russia Trialogue Workshop held at the DGAP in December 2015 focused on security. It brought together a group of Russian, Pol- ish, and German experts to discuss their respective national security discourses and the security situation in Europe more generally. The three short papers includ- ed here provide brief analyses of how the security situation is currently perceived in each of the three countries. From the German side, the answer was the refugee crisis. Polish experts pointed to the threat posed by Russia, while the Russian speakers described their worries about color revolutions and regime change in the post-Soviet sphere. Certainly, perceptions of security threats differ greatly among EU member states, to say nothing of the difference between Russia and the EU as a whole. Only real understanding of our counterparts can help in forging a new modus vivendi and overcoming the dangerous situation in which Europe currently nds itself. The Germany-Poland-Russia Trialogues aim to forge better understand- ing of “the other side” through presentations and opportunities for discussion, offering crucial rst steps toward overcoming misperceptions and stereotypes. The Trialogue meets regularly under the aegis of the DGAP (German Council on Foreign Relations), IMEMO (Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations Russian Academy of Sciences), and PISM (Polish Institute of International Affairs) and in cooperation with and nancial support from SDPZ (Foundation for Polish-German Cooperation) and the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s Warsaw office
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Europe

2080. The Greek Euro Tragedy

Author:
John Ryan
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This Strategic Update discusses the most recent problems for the Eurozone, namely the Greek crisis and how the European Central Bank’s (ECB) lack of democratic accountability has contributed to the instability of the Eurozone.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2081. Corruption: A Danger to Democracy in Europe and Eurasia

Author:
Christopher Davidson
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
America

2082. America's Insatiable Demand for Drugs: Examining Alternative Approaches

Author:
David W Murray
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs
Topic:
War on Drugs and International Affairs
Political Geography:
America

2083. White House Narratives on the Iran Nuclear Deal

Author:
Michael Scott Doran
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Testimony before the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, United States House of Representatives
Topic:
International Affairs and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2084. Carrier Air Wing and the Future of Naval Aviation

Author:
Seth Cropsey
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
America

2085. A Legislative Hearing on Four Communications Bills

Author:
Robert M McDowell
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Communications and Technology
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
America

2086. Success or Failure? Assessment of the Readmission Agreement Between the EU and Turkey from the Legal and Political Perspectives

Author:
Berfin Nur Osso
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
The discussion paper by Berfin Nur Osso, former intern at the Institute of International Relations Prague and a senior undergraduate student at the Koç University in Istanbul majoring in Law and minoring in International Relations, focuses on the assessment of the readmission agreement between the EU and Turkey.
Topic:
International Affairs and Europe Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

2087. The Coalition Airstrikes in Syria from the Perspective of the Responsibility to Protect

Author:
Y. Emre Gurbuz
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
The discussion paper by Emir Abbas Gürbüz, former intern at the position of the Independent Researcher and currently a lawyer based in Istanbul, discusses the status of the Responsibility to Protect doctrine in the customary international law and the applicability of the doctrine in the case of Syria.
Topic:
Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Syria

2088. The Privatisation of Security in Africa: Challenges and Lessons from Côte d’Ivoire, Mali and Senegal

Author:
Alan Bryden, Aliou Diouf, Edem K. Comlan, Kadidia Sangaré Coulibaly, Aly Sagne, and Emmylou Boddi
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Private security in Africa is booming. Whether from the perspective of major multinational players or small-scale local enterprises, the market for commercial security has expanded and evolved over recent years. However, policy makers rarely address private security, national parliaments and regulatory bodies provide limited oversight in this area, and the attention of African media and civil society is localized and sporadic. In short, a fundamental shift in the African security landscape is taking place under the radar of democratic governance. "The Privatisation of Security in Africa: Challenges and Lessons from Côte d’Ivoire, Mali and Senegal" provides expert accounts which portray the realities of the contemporary private security industry in Africa. The volume analyses key characteristics of security privatisation in Africa, offers new insights into the significance of this phenomenon from a security sector governance perspective and identifies specific entry points that should inform processes to promote good governance of the security sector in Africa.
Topic:
Security, Privatization, Governance, Law Enforcement, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Africa, Senegal, Mali, and Côte d'Ivoire

2089. Notes for the Next UN Secretary-General

Author:
Simon Adams
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
The United Nations faces an existential crisis. The norms that bind and ‘safeguard humanity’ are currently under threat. The deliberate bombing of hospitals and the indiscriminate killing of civilians has become almost routine in Syria and several other conflicts. Numerous governments and murderous non-state actors (like isis or Boko Haram) are defying international humanitarian and human rights law. This article argues that the solution to the current global exigency and a central challenge facing the next Secretary-General is to achieve an equilibrium shift away from crisis response and towards conflict prevention. This is especially true with regard to preventing mass atrocity crimes (genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing). Historically, no single issue has done more to tarnish the reputation of the un than the failure to halt atrocities. Under a committed Secretary-General, the un has unique capacity to prevent these crimes.
Topic:
International Law, Displacement, Conflict, Violence, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
United Nations, Syria, and Global Focus

2090. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Crises and Cooperation

Author:
Oğuz Çelikkol
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
Several factors have always played an important role in Turkish-Israeli relaons since the two countries established diplomac relaons in 1949. First of all, both countries have been in the Western camp and have a special relaonship with the United States. Turkey's recognion of the importance of the Jewish lobby in US polics and Turkey's contacts with this powerful lobby predated its diplomac contacts with the State of Israel. When Turkey faced the expansionist threat of the Soviet Union just aer the Second World War and wished to establish close military es with the United States, it also iniated contacts with the American Jewish lobby, and recognized the newly established State of Israel. Although Turkey voted against the Palesne paron plan of the United Naons and the division of Palesnian territories into Arab and Jewish states in 1947, it became the first regional power to recognize the Israeli State, just a few weeks before the Turkish foreign minister's first official visit to Washington in 1949. Turkey joined the US-led North Atlanc Treaty Organizaon (NATO) in 1952 and formed special diplomac and military es with the US during the 1950s.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, History, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

2091. Time to Seal the Israel-Turkey Deal

Author:
Mensur Akgün, Muhammed Ammash, Nimrod Goren, Gabriel Mitchell, and Sylvia Tiryaki
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
Turkey and Israel face a unique opportunity: to reconcile after five years of stagnant bilateral relations. We, leaders of Israeli and Turkish think tanks that have been working together since 2012 to support the mending of Israel-Turkey relations, welcome this development and call on the leaders of both countries to seize this opportunity. In mid-December, officials from both countries met in Switzerland in order to finalize principles for an eventual agreement to normalize ties. Reports confirm that an outline and framework for the reconciliation agreement has indeed been reached, although some important issues – such as the blockade on the Gaza Strip – are still unresolved. Israel and Turkey came close to sealing a reconciliation deal on several occasions since the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, most recently in the spring of 2014. However, while diplomats managed to find formulas that would overcome the differences between the countries, political leadership in Ankara and Jerusalem was hesitant to put the agreement into practice. This time around, there seems to be a convergence of economic and geostrategic interests, as well as political will on both sides.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

2092. Six ways to enable women’s economic empowerment

Author:
Fenohasina Rakotondrazaka Maret, Ammar A. Malik, Nan Marie Astone, and H. Elizabeth Peters
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Worldwide, only about one in two women work, compared with three in four men. In some low-income countries, such as Zimbabwe and Madagascar, the labor force participation rate for women has reached 90 percent, but these women are often underemployed. Hard economic circumstances often force them to be self-employed or work in small enterprises that are unregulated and unregistered. About 83 percent of all domestic workers in the world are women, most of whom work in precarious conditions. Women also do much more unpaid work than men, including caring for children, the elderly, and people with disabilities; contributing to family farms or businesses; and performing household chores such as collecting water or gathering firewood. Improving women’s livelihoods constitutes basic human rights protection. But could including more women in the labor force also stimulate economic growth, enhance business competitiveness, and improve well-being? We recently conducted a review of evidence to answer that question and found that reducing the gender pay gap and equalizing access to economic opportunities and resources are good for economic, social, and business development. For example, some firms that purposefully reduced gender discrimination and supported family-friendly policies attracted more talented workers, improved retention rates, and decreased employee stress, resulting in enhanced productivity.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar

2093. Will the cities of the future work for everyone?

Author:
Solomon Greene and Sarah Rosen Wartell
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
A century ago, 1 in 10 people lived in urban areas; today, it’s more than half. By 2050, that fraction will rise to two thirds of the world’s population as cities of all sizes swell to accommodate an estimated 2.5 billion more urban dwellers. What will cities look like in the future? Next week, researchers from the Urban Institute will join global leaders at the United Nations’ historic Habitat III conference to take stock of our progress in creating sustainable cities that meet the needs of all residents, and to get ahead of anticipated changes that will create both opportunities and challenges for city dwellers, our nations, and our planet.
Topic:
Development, Urban, and Cities
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2094. How can we better serve urban refugees?

Author:
Benjamin Edwards and Loren Landau
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The world is in the midst of a historic refugee crisis. In 2015, over 65 million people were forcibly displaced—19.5 million of them international refugees living outside their home countries. While the United States hopes to welcome up to 110,000 refugees next year, the scale of the crisis demands a larger and more creative response. Formal humanitarian approaches have focused on refugee camps and direct humanitarian aid, but cities and urban areas play a central role in hosting and protecting displaced persons. Today, only one-third of the world's refugees live in camps. Of the approximately 2.7 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, nearly 90 percent live in urban environments. Given the nature of the current crisis, what can humanitarian organizations do differently to address refugee concerns in urban areas? And what unique opportunities might arise by focusing on cities in addition to camps?
Topic:
Refugees, Displacement, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

2095. Olympics remind us of the importance of local governance

Author:
Jonah Lefkoe and Charles Cadwell
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
As the world’s greatest athletes, brave tourists, and the eyes of a global TV audience (London 2012 brought 3.6 billion global viewers, and Rio is expected to break viewership records in the United States) descend on Rio for the 2016 Olympics, Brazil’s political troubles and urban infrastructure are also in the spotlight. Awarding the Olympics to Rio was not a completely foolish act. In 2009, when Brazil won its Olympic bid, the country was recovering from the 2008 financial crisis faster than the United States and enacting new social programs to further assist its poor populations. From 2003 to 2014, 29 million Brazilians were lifted out of poverty, and income inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient, fell 11 percent. When the International Olympic Committee announced Brazil’s selection as the Olympic host, Brazilians threw a party on Copacabana Beach, and then-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) declared a new era for Brazil’s progress.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Governance, Sports, and Olympics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2096. In Tanzania, can more service provider accountability improve service delivery?

Author:
Fenohasina Rakotondrazaka Maret
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The quality of public-service delivery in developing countries depends on accountability for public-sector employees, but what does it take to make accountability the norm rather than the exception? According to the 2004 World Development Report, the long route of improving service delivery involves accountability through political mechanisms like the electoral system and politicians’ oversight. But the short route—accountability through the direct relationships between service providers, clients, and the local community—can often be just as effective. Social service delivery is still weak in many developing countries, particularly those in Africa, but increasing accountability could make a difference.
Topic:
Education, Health Care Policy, Accountability, Economic Development, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

2097. What keeps cities in Asia and Africa from effective public service delivery?

Author:
Madeline Roth and Ammar A. Malik
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Cities are widely regarded as engines of economic growth. Their ability to attract and retain talent and financial capital drives productivity and the well-being of societies. But cities across sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, two of the world’s most populous and rapidly urbanizing regions, are unable to provide basic services to most of their residents. Countries with greater levels of urbanization have traditionally enjoyed greater prosperity, but the rise of poor megacities in recent years has cast doubts on this relationship. By 2040, over half the world’s poor earning less than $1 per day are expected to live in cities. To realize their full economic potential, cities must offer quality public amenities, modern urban infrastructure, and widely accessible basic public services such as water and sanitation. What factors prevent cities from better serving residents? And what can city governments do improve the status quo?
Topic:
Infrastructure, Urbanization, Economic Growth, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

2098. Three top priorities for the White House Summit on Global Development

Author:
Benjamin Edwards and Jonah Lefkoe
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
At tomorrow’s White House Summit on Global Development, President Obama will convene stakeholders in international development to celebrate the administration’s successes and plan for its legacy. The Obama administration has reformed the development goals and how we implement development activities. Revisions to the goals include sector initiatives like Power Africa, Feed the Future, the President’s Global Climate Change Initiative, and Let Girls Learn—results-focused projects that have filled gaps in our development policies. Changes to implementation include President Obama’s landmark 2010 Presidential Policy Directive on Global Development, the USAID (US Agency for International Development) Forward reforms derived from that directive, and his recent signature on the Foreign Aid Transparency and Accountability Act of 2016. These initiatives are changing the way US development efforts are conducted, reimagining development with a focus on process and adaptability. The White House has laid out two goals for the summit: institutionalize the administration’s reforms, and recommit to expanding dignity and opportunity for all. To go beyond a well-earned celebration of progress already made, the event’s agenda should include three things.
Topic:
Development, Urban, Barack Obama, and USAID
Political Geography:
North America

2099. Can you tackle poverty without taking on place?

Author:
Solomon Greene
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Earlier this month, House Republicans released a new plan to fight poverty and help Americans move up the economic ladder. The plan begins and ends with the premise that “The American Dream is the idea that, no matter who you are or where you come from, if you work hard and give it your all, you will succeed.” In between, however, there is scant mention of the role that place (i.e., where you come from) plays in perpetuating poverty or shaping economic opportunity. This is a glaring omission, especially in light of the plan’s insistence on grounding poverty-reduction policies in the best available evidence. The evidence shows that geography plays a powerful role in determining life outcomes in the United States. Better understanding the mechanisms by which zip codes determine destiny and identifying effective strategies to sever the connection between poverty and place should be central to any federal antipoverty plan.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2100. Six lessons on what works in supporting women-owned businesses

Author:
Ammar A. Malik, Arjan de Haan, and Alejandra Vargas Garcia
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Throughout the world, economic opportunities are less available to women than to men. Not only is the worldwide female labor force participation rate lower than it is for men, working women earn 10 to 30 percent less than their male counterparts. The share of girls who enroll and complete primary school remains less than boys'. Women hold only 22 percent of national parliament seats around the world. In a recent World Bank study, 90 percent of 173 surveyed countries had at least one law (e.g., prohibitions on women taking up certain jobs) preventing women from taking full advantage of economic opportunities. While gender equality has improved in some respects, minimizing gender-based violence, early and forced marriages, and property-rights violations will take more work. The full realization of women’s economic potential is essential for achieving the ambitious United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, which will drive the global development agenda until 2030.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, Sustainable Development Goals, Business, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus