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Begin New Search Topic European Union Content Type Commentary and Analysis Publication Year within 25 Years Publication Year within 10 Years

1. European Security and Defence: Don’t Get Your Hopes Up Just Yet

Author:
Adaja Stoetman
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
“2022 will be the year of European defence”.[1] These were the words of European Council President Charles Michel in October 2021. When he gave his speech at the Charlemagne Prize Award Ceremony in Aachen, no one expected that his statement would materialise in the way it did. Yes, headway was to be expected with the adoption of the Strategic Compass and European countries demonstrating commitment to investing more in defence cooperation. Although there is still a world of difference between ambitions and reality, the degree of progress accomplished in the past twelve months was not foreseen.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Politics, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

2. Turkey vis-à-vis Russia’s War against Ukraine

Author:
Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Characterising Turkey’s policy towards Russia’s war on Ukraine is not an easy task. Elements of both support for Ukraine and neutrality have emerged in the past year. An analysis of the fundamentals of Turkey–US relations and Russia–Turkey relations is thus helpful.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States of America

3. Italy’s Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In line with the EU’s policy, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and current Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have taken a strong stance in response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine by firmly condemning the invasion and offering their full support for Kyiv’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy

4. Reach for the Stars: Bridging Italy’s Potential in Space with Its Foreign and Security Policy

Author:
Karolina Muti
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italian capabilities, expertise and potential in the space sector are not widely known. Among state actors, Rome has actually been a pioneer in the field, boasting a long tradition that started in 1964 when Italy became the third country, after the Soviet Union and the United States, to send a nationally manufactured satellite into orbit.[1] From an industrial standpoint, Italy is among the few countries whose companies cover the whole space value chain.[2] In Europe, Rome is ranked second for total number of assets in orbit and is currently the third contributor to the European Space Agency (ESA).[3] An Italian astronaut, Samantha Cristoforetti, has recently become the first European woman to take command of the International Space Station (ISS).[4]
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Space
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

5. A Healthier and More Sustainable Global Food System: What is at Stake for the EU?

Author:
Marta Antonelli
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Fixing the global food system is arguably the most powerful leverage to nurture the world’s population while keeping human activity within the biophysical limits of the planet. Yet, food systems are today a threat to both human and planetary health, and thus require bold and forward-looking strategies as well as multi-stakeholder collaboration.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Health, Politics, Natural Resources, European Union, Food Security, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Europe

6. A Digital Euro in Search of an Identity

Author:
Franco Passacantando
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The recent proliferation of crypto assets and other digital currencies is rapidly transforming the financial industry and the very concept of money. In response to these developments, many central banks are considering the possibility of introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), to be used as an alternative to cash. These trends have led to a lively debate on the role that a new sovereign digital currency could play in the monetary system. Some claim that the creation of a CBDC looks like a solution in search of problem because the private sector is already responding to the needs of faster and cheaper payment services.[1] The opposite view is that, if nothing is done, central banks could eventually lose the capacity to conduct monetary policy, to preserve financial stability and to ensure the proper functioning of the payment system. While the European Central Bank (ECB) has yet to make a final decision, in July 2021 it announced the start of a two-year “investigation phase” on the possible introduction of a euro CBDC, in which the views of prospective users and of those who will distribute the new currency will be sought.
Topic:
European Union, Finance, Currency, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

7. Inequalities and Local Infrastructure: The Challenges of Post-Covid Recovery Investments

Author:
Filippo Barbera
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Rather than being mere “productive environments”, localities embedded in infrastructure are distinctive living places in which communities of people live and establish a greater part of their daily social relationships. As a result, infrastructure represents the backbone of citizenship rights and strongly affect territorial inequalities. Infrastructure is chiefly understood in physical terms as reticulated systems of highways, pipes, wires or cables. This physical reductionism is by no means sufficient to encompass the multiple facets of the concept or to make sense of the many ways infrastructure affects socio-political inequalities. Knowledge infrastructure, for instance, may indicate robust networks of people, equipment and institutions that generate, share and maintain specific knowledge about the human and natural worlds. Infrastructure furthermore refers to the interplay between information technologies, transportation and other intermodal transport devices. All of these kinds of infrastructure affect inequalities in different ways.
Topic:
Political Economy, Politics, Infrastructure, Governance, European Union, Sustainable Development Goals, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

8. Israeli Apartheid and the West’s Dwindling Moral Credibility

Author:
Andrea Dessì
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Amidst spiralling tensions on the European continent, East-West animosities have returned to dominate daily news cycles. Predictably, this has revived rhetoric on competing political systems and norms, giving rise to a flurry of reporting contrasting Western democracy’s support for the “rules-based international order” vs an informal “alliance of autocracies” led by Russia and China which embrace military might or economic and political blackmail in “a bid to make the world safe for dictatorship”, as recently opinionated the Washington Post.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, International Law, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, United States of America, and Mediterranean

9. After Deterrence: Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War for East Asia

Author:
Yang Gyu Kim
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Notwithstanding explicit warnings of the U.S. and its European allies, Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th. In this Commentary, Yang Gyu Kim, Executive Director at the East Asia Institute (EAI), identifies the Russia-Ukraine war as a case of deterrence failure from the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’s perspective. He points out weakened U.S. feasibility of military and political punishments against Russia’s Fait Accompli Strategy as the cause behind the escalation of the crisis. Additionally, the author underscores the importance of maintaining the feasibility of punishment in order to deter China and North Korea from launching provocations in East Asia by misperceiving the credibility of the U.S. alliance system’s deterrence posture in East Asia.
Topic:
NATO, War, European Union, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and North Korea

10. Can we ever build a common European home? The perils and promise of an old idea

Author:
Zachary Paikin and Michael Kimmage
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the idea of a ‘common European home’ inspired many different political leaders. This idea has now crumbled amid Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. Historians will long debate what went wrong. For now, the West will have little choice but to inhabit a continental security context based on deterrence rather than romantic visions and shared identities. But Western governments should also not give up on the more flexible, accepting approach to European security and integration that animated the 1990s. The EU granting candidate status to Ukraine last June was a landmark event. But the EU cannot have an effective strategy for Ukraine without also having a strategy for Russia. Even with the continent afflicted by war, the aspiration of a common European home must not be discarded. This CEPS Explainer evaluates the principal lessons of the Ukraine War for European security and outlines a pathway to putting the continent back on the road towards a more inclusive order.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

11. Walking out of the Woods: EU Industrial Policy between the Energy Crisis and Decarbonisation

Author:
Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Europe is in the midst of a profound and complex energy crisis. This is not limited to the gas sector as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but involves all energy sources. French nuclear generation, for example, has fallen to a thirty-year low over the past year due to maintenance works and corrosion.[1] Due to extreme heat over summer, unprecedented drought has reduced hydropower generation as well as the possibility to import coal by river.[2] Oil has not been immune to turbulences either. The EU embargo on Russian crude oil finally began on 5 December 2022, coupled with a price cap at 60 US dollars/barrel generating uncertainty over future supply and prices. In February 2023, the second step of the embargo, on refined products, will kick in, with diesel potentially becoming the next chapter of the European energy crisis.[3]
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Institutions, Industry, Decarbonization, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

12. The EU vis-à-vis Turmoil in Burkina Faso: Towards Europeanisation?

Author:
Francesca Lenzi
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In late September 2022, Burkina Faso experienced its second coup in eight months. In the name of national security, Captain Ibrahim Traoré took control of the country on 30 September, deposing Paul-Henri Damiba, who had come to power through his own coup in January. Insecurity and the inability of the political class to deal with the jihadist threat are among the determining factors that led to two coups in such a short time. The coups unfolded in a context marked by competition between the European Union (EU) – initially led by France, the traditional European hegemon in the region – and Russia for influence in the Sahel.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Coup
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, and Burkina Faso

13. European Defence: Time to Act

Author:
Alessandro Azzoni
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has renewed momentum on the long-standing debate on EU defence, convincing many that the time for concrete steps to meet this ambition – the building of a united European defence grounded in its own strategic and technological autonomy – has finally come. Talks have been ongoing for some 68 years – that is, since the French parliament sunk the European Defence Community project back in 1954. The manifest broadening of public consensus for the idea of European defence is not enough. Thorough technical assessments will be needed to identify priorities and strike an acceptable balance between reducing duplications, optimising expenses and the inevitable transfer of some elements of strategic and operational “sovereignty” in the military domain.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Defense Industry, Procurement, and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP)
Political Geography:
Europe

14. The De-Globalisation of Oil: Risks and Implications from the Politicisation of Energy Markets

Author:
Rafael Ramírez
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The EU’s announced ban on Russian oil imports is a strong political measure that will heavily impact international energy markets, restricting the supply of 4.1 million barrels per day (mbd) of oil and derivates to a market which is a net importer of 10.72 mbd.[1] The EU’s ban, which is due to fully come into effect between December 2022 and February 2023, combined with the US’s previous ban of 600 thousand barrels a day (tbd), means that 4.7 mbd of Russian oil and derivatives are being removed from these high oil consuming markets (35.9 mbd in total). If we add the 1.3 mbd of oil that Iran has stopped producing due to US sanctions reintroduced in 2018, we reach a volume of 6 mbd of oil that is restricted or out of the market due to political decisions. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the unprecedented sanctions and oil ban imposed on Moscow, combined with the previous oil sanctions against Iran, are fast advancing a new geopolitical reality: the de-globalisation of the international oil market.
Topic:
Oil, Sanctions, European Union, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

15. North Korea’s Covid-19 Outbreak: An Opening for Engagement?

Author:
Lorenzo Mariani and Leonardo Bruni
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In January 2020, in response to the novel coronavirus, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK; North Korea) closed its borders and for the next two years claimed it had not experienced a single case of Covid-19. However, on 12 May 2022, North Korea disclosed a severe domestic outbreak and in the following weeks began reporting millions of cases of “fevers” and several deaths.[1] Pyongyang’s admission was initially interpreted as a veiled request for international assistance as the country is particularly vulnerable due to its zero per cent vaccination rate, inadequate healthcare system and chronic food insecurity. However, as with previous attempts during the height of the pandemic, offers of aid and vaccines from the Republic of Korea (ROK; South Korea), the US, international organisations (IOs) and multilateral initiatives like COVAX received no response; most likely due to suspicion of the aid being politicised.[2]
Topic:
Health, Foreign Aid, European Union, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

16. The EU and the Ukraine War: Making Sense of the Rise of a “Geopolitical” Union

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
By ordering Russian armed forces into Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has arguably made the greatest blunder of his twenty-two-year long rule. The Russian president seems to have underestimated not just Ukraine’s capacity to resist the invasion, but also the resolve of the United States and its partners to oppose it.[1] If that is indeed the case, the greatest surprise must have come from the European Union.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

17. Russian Energy Exports and the Conflict in Ukraine: What Options for Italy and the EU?

Author:
Margherita Bianchi and Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Putin’s war on Ukraine has shaken the European Union to its core. Implications will be long lasting in numerous domains, but it is in the security and energy dimensions that concrete changes are already becoming evident as the EU fast tracks its strategy for energy diversification. The Russian invasion has drastically changed the European energy paradigm, with the new political absolute being a fast reduction of Europe’s overdependence on Russian gas. Diversifying energy supplies away from Russia is a means to tighten the economic noose around Putin, seeking to deprive the Kremlin of billions in energy revenue given that Russia continues to export oil, gas and coal to Europe at very high prices.
Topic:
Security, Sanctions, European Union, Gas, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy

18. Russia–Ukraine Talks and the Indispensable Role of the US and Europe

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Vladimir Putin’s imperialist war of conquest in Ukraine is about to enter its fifth week. Russia’s failure to shock and awe Ukraine’s government and armed forces into submission through a poorly executed Blitzkrieg has morphed into a slow and ever more brutal three-front campaign. While Russian forces struggle to make strides in the north and east, they have been more successful in the south, where they are about to deprive Ukraine from access to the Sea of Azov.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

19. Paper Fairy Tales VS Steel Brotherhood – Media Portrayals of Serbia’s Alliances in the Age of Pandemic

Author:
Luka Steric and Maja Bjelos
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
BCSP researchers Maja Bjeloš and Luka Šterić analyzed how media in Serbia reported about Chinese, Russian and EU help during the pandemics. Because the pandemic was used as a framework for an excessive pro-Chinese campaign, the research examines how pro-Chinese narratives in mainstream media during the pandemic were used to position China, displacing Russia as Serbia’s main non-Western partner, while simultaneously propelling the anti-EU narrative of incompetence and hypocrisy. The analysis was carried out for the period between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2021 and focused on two key events – media coverage of the first shipments of medical supplies to Serbia and media reporting of the supply of vaccines. Media monitoring included data collection using social listening software from the online portals of most-watched televisions (TV Happy, TV Prva), the most visited news portals (Blic, Kurir, Politika, B92 and Nova.rs), and the most circulated online portals of tabloids (Informer and Alo). Chinese medical aid to Serbia during the COVID-19 pandemic attracted unprecedented foreign media attention and much speculation about a shift in Serbia’s foreign policy. Many foreign and domestic policy experts have interpreted the enthusiastic acceptance of Chinese aid by Serbian politicians as a departure from Serbia’s proclaimed accession to the European Union. Since Serbia did not greet Russian assistance with the same enthusiasm, this sparked speculation that Serbia is replacing Russia with China as its preferred eastern partner. In Serbian media, the narrative of a ‘brotherhood’ has long been reserved for describing relations between Serbia and Russia. Serbia’s ruling political elite voluntarily promoted President Putin and Russia in the mainstream media to increase political support among pro-Russian votes and at the same time exaggerating Russia’s influence in Serbia as a bargaining chip with the West over its political goals. Due to the silent crisis of relations with Moscow, Belgrade officials saw the partnership with China as a stronger card to play ahead of the 2020 elections to convince voters that the government was capable of dealing with the COVID-19 crisis, as well as acquiring a new ally in the East to leverage in the West. Consequently, China emerged as a ‘savior of Serbs in trouble’ during the pandemic overshadowing roles of both Russia and the EU.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Media, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Serbia

20. The Hidden G2 for Democratic Tech Governance is the EU-US Relationship: A Starter Kit

Author:
Tyson Barker
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The EU and the United States are expected to launch a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) on the sidelines of the US-EU Summit in mid-June, which could present a rare opportunity to jumpstart the EU-US technology relationship. Against the backdrop of rapid technological change, a transatlantic digital technology community could be a 21st-century answer to the Coal and Steal Community – a big democratic project that reaches across borders, knits like-minded communities together in a manner that reinforces shared values, and codifies standards of market access, increased interdependence, and intensified political dialogue.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, Democracy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

21. Three Ideas to Improve the International Role of the ECB

Author:
Shahin Vallée and Daniela Gabor
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The ECB has been forced – in part by the COVID-19 crisis – to review its bilateral arrangements with foreign central banks. But the recent changes made by the ECB fall short of the European Commission’s ambitions to boost the international role of the euro. We suggest the ECB should put in place an alternative three-pillar framework to improve the international role of the ECB and cement its pivotal role in the international financial system.
Topic:
European Union, Banks, International System, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

22. A Capable EU Is No Utopia: Strategic Lessons from the German Presidency

Author:
Anna-Lena Kirch
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Overall, as the COVID-19 crisis unfolded, the EU proved capable to act. Crisis management addressing the pandemic benefited from the fact that Germany held the presidency of the EU Council in the second half of 2020 and could build upon its traditional approach: developing European capabilities, including all governments, and being prepared for the unexpected. Now, going forward, Germany needs to use its experience with complexity and uncertainty to help form a strategic doctrine for the EU.
Topic:
European Union, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

23. Blurry Counterterrorism: A Chance for Russia, A Risk for Europe

Author:
Miriam Heß
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The European Union should actively address the problematic use of counterterrorism by non-European states – especially Russia – and make it a permanent aspect in developing counterterrorism strategies and agendas. Failing to address the misuse of counterterrorism sends the wrong signal not only to those with reason to fear geopolitical interference by their countries of origin, but also to states that pursue “anti-terrorist-operations” in the form of abductions and executions abroad.
Topic:
European Union, Counter-terrorism, Geopolitics, and Risk
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

24. To the Viktor Go the Spoils: What Orbán Needs to Form a New Political Camp in Europe

Author:
Milan Nič and Julian Rappold
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The next months will show whether Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán can retain his influence in Europe even outside its largest political family. Having left the center-right European People’s Party before his party was finally pushed out, Orbán is now trying to regroup and unite the populist and Euroskeptic forces in European Parliament. What looks like a defeat could still be turned to his advantage if it leads to a lasting reshuffle of political alliances and strengthens illiberal voices.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Populism, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

25. Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Winter 2020/2021

Author:
Klaus-Jurgen Gern
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This EUROFRAME Report presents an assess- ment of the economic outlook for 2021 focuses on the euro area based on a synopsis of the fore- casts of EUROFRAME institutes. Perspectives for UK and CEEs countries are described in Boxes A and B, respectively. In the Focus section, we discuss a special topic, based on work done in the EUROFRAME insti- tutes. This time, we discuss the impact that the COVID-19 crisis had on labour markets in Eu- rope and policy responses to this challenge, based on the experience in the countries hosting EUROFRAME institutes.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Regionalism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

26. EU-China Investment Agreement: the EU’s Balancing Act between Values and Economic Interests

Author:
Saila Turtiainen
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The ratification process for the EU’s new investment agreement with China is expected to be very difficult. Although the aim is to improve EU-China relations, the process of getting the agreement approved in the EU will end up causing further tensions with China as the EU tries to strike a balance between promoting its values and economic interests.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Conflict, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

27. The EU’s new trade strategy: Gearing up for competition over values

Author:
Okko-Pekka Salmimies and Saila Turtiainen
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU’s new trade strategy instrumentalizes trade policy more forcefully in order to promote EU values such as democracy and human rights. A value-based and more defensive trade policy can lead to conflicts spirals, especially with China. The EU also needs to be prepared for potential setbacks in developing the transatlantic relations.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Regionalism, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

28. The EU’s Strategic Approach to CSDP interventions: Building a Tenet from Praxis

Author:
Tyyne Karjalainen
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Crisis management forms an integral part of the expanding toolbox with which the European Union (EU) reacts to external crises. This FIIA analysis aims at understanding the strategic approach of the EU to crisis management as it develops from the interplay between growing institutional infrastructure and member states’ reactions to crises and conflicts in their neighbourhood. In particular, this analysis investigates the creation of objectives for Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) interventions. Drawing on a series of expert interviews, the article challenges a tradition in European studies of analysing EU strategy based on strategic documents alone. Instead, it explores the strategic approach as it has been developed, practised and interpreted by practitioners working in the CSDP framework. The research argues that the development of the EU’s approach is characterized by experimentalism and emergence, which are enabled by repetitive processes of intergovernmentalism and institutional learning in the framework. At the same time, discrepancies in the Integrated Approach and decision- making are found to limit the capabilities of the EU as a strategic actor. Finally, three trends are argued to curtail the EU approach to crisis management at present: a decreasing level of ambition, squeezing between other instruments for foreign and security policy, and a rhetorical shift from external to internal security.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe

29. The World After the Pandemic: European Unity and the Challenge of Reviving Multilateralism

Author:
Sonia Bianconi
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Covid-19 has dramatically re-focussed the world’s attention on the adverse implications of globalisation. Coming on the heels of the 2008 financial crisis, the global pandemic has further weakened the image and credibility of the United States, causing the West to lose appeal compared to a more authoritarian but equally efficient East.
Topic:
Globalization, Politics, European Union, Multilateralism, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

30. Covid-19 and the International Liberal Order: Goodbye “Global”, Hello “Regional”?

Author:
Irene Paviotti
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Covid-19 crisis is broadly recognised as a watershed moment in world history, prompting a radical rethink of social norms and accelerating a number of pre-existing geopolitical trends. When it comes to globalisation and multilateralism, two defining features of the current international order, the pandemic has accelerated a move towards regionalism on the one hand and clearly exposed the shortcomings of an unequal multilateral system on the other.
Topic:
Globalization, Health, Political Economy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

31. Europe and Covid-19: Never Waste a Good Crisis

Author:
Chiara Andreazza
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
"Democracy is based on the promise of social mobility and improvement, a path that leads to increasing well-being, particularly for the middle class. If incomes fall and inequalities sharpen, then democracies collapse.” Italian philosopher, Massimo Cacciari, used these words to describe the present crisis that western liberal democracies are facing. Years have passed since the first signs of citizen distrust towards social institutions and governing elites became apparent. Such sentiments have led to an increase in populist politics and authoritarian tendencies, characterised by charming leaders and strongman politics, which in turn have challenged certain elements of liberal democracy.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Democracy, Legitimacy, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

32. Covid-19 and the Multilateral System: What Role for the EU?

Author:
Roberto Baccarini
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Covid-19 represents a critical juncture for the European Union. The crisis catalysed the weakening of the post-Cold War international order and the emergence of a multipolar world, presenting Europe with significant, even existential challenges.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Multilateralism, Institutions, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

33. Europe's Polish Question

Author:
Riccardo Perissich
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
European history has on several occasions been confronted with a “Polish question”. It did not always end well, especially for Poland. This time around, the issue that has placed the Polish government led by the populist Law and Justice party (PiS), the institutions of the EU and most of its member states at loggerheads is unlikely to end in bloodshed, but it nevertheless remains dangerous. The Commission and the European Court of Justice (ECJ) have established that recent reforms to the Polish judiciary undermine the independence of the courts and the principle of a separation of powers; among them the creation of a disciplinary body under political control that can censure Polish judges. The Polish Supreme Court, conversely, has responded that such ruling is incompatible with the country’s constitution. What makes the question particularly complicated is that it is tri-dimensional.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

34. The AUKUS Partnership: A Wake-up Call for Europe

Author:
Gabriele Abbondanza
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Now that some dust has settled over the surprise announcement of AUKUS on 16 September, it is possible to analyse the implications of this partnership not just for its members, but for Europe as well.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Politics, European Union, Partnerships, Maritime, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

35. Europe’s Strategic Compass: Merits and Shortcomings

Author:
Riccardo Perissich
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Europe’s “Strategic Compass” proposes a number of initiatives to enable the EU to act in the security and defence domain and confront the many challenges impacting European interests. The document, prepared by the European External Action Service (EEAS) under the responsibility of Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative and Vice President of the Commission, will be debated by defence and foreign ministers over the next few months and subsequently adopted as an official strategy statement sometime during the French Presidency of the European Council next year.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Politics, Military Affairs, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

36. The Italy–France Treaty is an Example of Wise Diplomacy

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The recently concluded Treaty on Enhanced Cooperation between France and Italy[1] has created some interest in Europe. Dubbed the “Quirinale Treaty” after the sumptuous residential palace of the Italian president of the Republic where the signing ceremony was held, the agreement is indeed a significant development. It could preside over an expansion and deepening of the bilateral relationship, lead to a degree of rebalancing in Europe’s power relations and usher in a new era of greater coordination between Paris and Rome in EU negotiating formats. These three elements – the bilateral dimension, Europe’s balance of power and EU policymaking processes – make up the rationale of the treaty and are consequently worth analysing separately.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Italy

37. The EU and the North Korean Conundrum: Supporting Reconciliation and Denuclearization

Author:
Ramon Pacheco Pardo
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
While the EU had initially engaged with North Korea through a conciliatory approach, its stance against the authoritarian state has been more critical, manifest in its policy of ‘critical engagement.’ In this commentary, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Professor of International Relations at King's College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance, claims that the EU, among key players, cannot remain idle amid the growing security dilemma on the Korean Peninsula fueled by mutual hostility. The author claims that the EU should adopt a more proactive approach in order to accommodate reconciliation between the two Koreas and address the issue of denuclearization. The author adds that the EU's role in dealing with issues on the Korean peninsula is irreplaceable, given its experience and technical expertise. Specifically, the union and European countries can support security on the Korean Peninsula by hosting track-2 dialogues or pressing Pyongyang on its human rights record.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

38. The EU’s North Korea Policy: From Engagement, to Critical Engagement, and to Criticism with Limited Engagement

Author:
Ramon Pacheco Pardo
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
While the EU had initially focused on engagement with North Korea in the 1990s, the North Korea nuclear crisis served as a turning point, pushing the EU to change its strategy to ‘critical engagement.’ In this commentary, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Professor of International Relations at King`s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance, explains the trajectory of EU’s policy towards North Korea. The EU’s first Asia strategy had called for the EU to become involved in addressing the North Korean nuclear issue, establishing diplomatic relations with the country. However, at the onset of the second nuclear crisis and further acceleration of North Korea’s missile and nuclear weapons program, the EU responded by ramping up pressure. To this date, the EU has been increasingly critical of the hermit kingdom, using a strategy that admonishes and pressures Pyongyang.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, European Union, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

39. The European Perspective of the Anti-Western Information Warfare

Author:
Erekle Iantbelidze
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The transfer of the international political reality to a new multi-polar prism makes geopolitics, as one of the directions of interdisciplinary education, more important in the current situation. The development of digital and scientific technologies has moved the phenomenon of the balance of power to a new stage and for a number of states and intergovernmental organizations, the term geopolitics has become the flagship of security strategy, cultural domination and democratic processes. In terms of the new “geopolitical commission,” the action plan of Ursula von der Leyen rests on two main principles – Europe’s climate and digital transition (European Parliament, 2020). Therefore, in the conditions of a war of values, geopolitics and digitalization, technological development has become a super-important component that the European Union is attempting to bring to the forefront as it wrestles with the world’s foremost states (China, India, Russia, Turkey). As the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, stated, Europe must not become a playground for other great powers and it must take the role of a geopolitical leader in the world (Barigazzi, 2019). It must also be pointed out that the geopolitical nature of Europe also envisages the development and gradual expansion of its neighborhood policy. That said, the associated partners within the Eastern Partnership (EaP) format (Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine) have bigger ambitions and goals than the development of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and the full implementation of the Association Agreement (AA) (European Commission, 2019).
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, and Free Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

40. De-Securitising and Re-Prioritising EU-Iraq Relations

Author:
Flavio Fusco
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Located at the heart of the Middle East, connecting the Levant to the Persian Gulf, Iraq has always been at the centre of regional dynamics. Yet, the country is today reduced to a quasi-failed state fundamentally damaged in its political, social and economic fabric, with long-term consequences that trace a fil rouge from the 2003 US-led invasion to the emergence of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) and the country’s current structural fragility.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

41. The Plight of the Western Balkans Is a Wake-up Call for Europe

Author:
Vedran Džihić and Paul Schmidt
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In societies devastated by the pandemic, the EU needs to leave its conventional tool-box behind and urgently speed up the Europeanisation of its neighbours in Southeast Europe. The coronavirus pandemic has deepened the vulnerabilities affecting Western Balkan countries and exposed the weakness of their state institutions, especially in the health sector and social protection. At the same time, related to the limited effectiveness of the EU enlargement process over the past years, the progress of reforms has stagnated and some countries have even experienced concerning regressions in the rule of law. The outbreak of the coronavirus crisis has meanwhile increased the presence of other geopolitical players in the region, mainly in the context of competition over vaccinations, not only of China but also of Russia and the United Arab Emirates. Awareness is growing that the EU and the West is not the only available partner. As other powers not known for their democratic practices use or misuse the Western Balkans to promote their interests, the vision of a free, democratic and truly European Balkans is no longer self-evident.
Topic:
European Union, Institutions, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

42. The New US-EU Energy Security Agenda: Roundtable Report

Author:
Jonathan Elkind
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
On June 3, 2021, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) and the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs), in cooperation with the European Climate Foundation (ECF) and the European Union (EU) Delegation to the US, cohosted a private virtual roundtable focusing on energy security issues during a period of heightened action on climate goals. This document summarizes the June 3 roundtable, which was conducted on a not-for-attribution basis. Participants in the roundtable included just over 50 senior corporate executives, civil society representatives, academic and think tank experts, energy analysts, and government officials from the European Union and United States. In June 2021, President Joe Biden traveled to Europe, his first overseas trip since his inauguration as president, and he met with European heads of state and government in the context of a British-hosted G7 meeting, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit, and a US-EU Summit.[1] The journey signaled a concerted effort by the United States and the European Union to rebuild bilateral relations, which were battered during the Trump administration. Protecting the global climate and accelerating the transition to clean energy are objectives that unify top leaders on both sides of the Atlantic today. The European Union has a legislated mandate of climate neutrality by the year 2050 and is implementing its comprehensive European Green Deal and elaborating a corresponding legal and regulatory framework for an enhanced 2030 target. In the United States, the Biden administration reentered the Paris climate agreement and announced plans to reach net-zero emissions by midcentury, though climate protection still faces significant political challenges in the US Congress and in certain states. If the European Union and the United States proceed as these plans indicate, their energy systems face a period of accelerating, unprecedented, and sustained change—new technologies, new supply chains, new business models, and new interdependencies between economic sectors.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

43. In search of a European Russia strategy

Author:
Tony van der Togt
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
A global multilateral rules-based order, supported by a pro-active and interventionist United States, is gradually being replaced by a more fragmented world, in which geopolitics and geo-economics are becoming the dominant factors and universal rules, norms, and values are increasingly questioned. For the EU such developments are particularly challenging, as it has long perceived itself as a post-Westphalian soft power, mainly projecting its norms and values in its relations with both its direct neighbors and the world at large. A more isolationist US, a more assertive Russia, and the growing global influence of China have raised questions about the EU’s place and role in the world, which become even more pertinent after Brexit. Therefore, Commission President Von der Leyen intends to lead a “geopolitical Commission” and we are hearing calls for European strategic autonomy or even strategic sovereignty.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

44. A New Risk to the EU from Coronavirus Viktor Orbán’s Hungary

Author:
András Rácz
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Political leaders could abuse the coronavirus crisis to undermine democracy. Europe’s biggest risk is Hungary. In late March, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán could use his two-thirds majority in parliament to push through a law that would empower him to rule by decrees with no specified time limit. If he succeeds, it will undermine the European Union’s core principles, making the EU even more fragmented and difficult to manage once the pandemic is over.
Topic:
Government, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

45. Moldova in the EU's Eastern Partnership: Lessons of a Decade

Author:
Martin Sieg
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
In Moldova, the weakness of the Eastern Partnership has been over-reliance on incentives, rather than a lack thereof. Veto players who hid their true interests by claiming allegiance to the European cause hijacked the EU’s soft power. The EaP’s shortcoming was lack of means and readiness to make these key opponents of political reforms keep their commitments. Its core challenge is how to overcome the resistance of these veto players who have been obstructing transformational goals.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Oligarchy
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Moldova, and Eastern Europe

46. COMMENTARIES: State of the European Union address 2020

Author:
Katerina Davidova, Vít Havelka, Jana Juzová, Christian Kvorning Lassen, Danielle Piatkiewicz, and Zuzana Stuchlíková
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Experts from EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy comment on the State of the Union address (SOTEU) given by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on 16 September 2020. Topics of the commentaries: Christian Kvorning Lassen: General Impressions – A Visionary Speech Challenged by Political Reality; Christian Kvorning Lassen: A Stronger European Health Union is Needed; Christian Kvorning Lassen: Migration – Ambitious rhetoric, dubious feasibility; Danielle Piatkiewicz: Multilateralism: Europe’s Call to Global Action – Taking the Lead; Kateřina Davidová: EU’s climate momentum not quashed by the pandemic as new target is presented; Jana Juzová: European Neighbourhoods – Vague Reassurances, Economy First; Zuzana Stuchlíková: Next Generation EU, Rule of Law and Conference on the Future of Europe; Vít Havelka: The EU and the UK fights over blame for Brexit fiasco
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, Migration, European Union, Multilateralism, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe

47. EU – Western Balkans summit - More reforms, more money

Author:
Jana Juzová
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Wednesday’s Summit of EU and Western Balkans leaders was long-anticipated following the efforts aimed at reviving the EU enlargement process. The Summit was originally planned to be organized in Zagreb, under the Croatian EU presidency, however, due to the coronavirus pandemic, it was held as a videoconference. Nevertheless, the fact that the Summit was realized despite the current global situation, even on the scheduled date, demonstrates that the Western Balkan region represents a priority for Croatia as well as the rest of the EU, and that the EU genuinely wants to revitalize the enlargement process. It was expected that the Summit in Zagreb would follow up on the positive developments in the past months, those being the positive decision of the European Council on opening the accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, and the adoption of a new enlargement methodology (i.e. set of rules leading the accession process). However, the Summit’s agenda was naturally influenced by the current COVID-19 pandemic and the central topic was eventually the assistance provided by the EU to the Western Balkan countries and a larger plan for their economic recovery.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

48. EU Council Commentary: No progress in MFF and recovery fund

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
On Friday, EU leaders met online to discuss the newest proposal by the European Commission on the future MFF and Next Generation EU recovery fund. As expected, the meeting was devoted to a mere assessment of Member States’ starting negotiation positions, meaning no significant progress has been made. The leaders only agreed to finalize the negotiations as soon as possible, targeting at mid-July during the German presidency. The introduction of Next Generation EU fund rewrote the dividing lines in the EU manifesting during the previous MFF negotiations. Some groupings, such as Frugal Four remain more or less intact, whereas the group of “Friends of Cohesion” disintegrated into several blocks, which makes the negotiations less lucid. Southern Europe supports the new Commission proposals; Czech Republic, Hungary and several Baltic State express reservations. Nevertheless, the good news is that no country vetoed the Commissions proposal and there is a good chance to reach an agreement. Whether this will happen before the summer break remains to be seen. The member states positions are now far away from each other, and the leaders will have to manifest good negotiation skills in order to conclude the negotiations within one month.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Economy, Recovery, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Europe

49. "Coronationalism" vs a geopolitical Europe? EU external solidarity at the time of Covid-19

Author:
Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Christian Kvorning Lassen from EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy together with Jan Kovář from Institute of International Relations Prague wrote a commentary "Czechia: This Covid-19 environment is not conducive to external solidarity" for the EPIN Report publication, concerned with EU external solidarity at the time of Covid-19. EU member states have been discussing how to collectively deal with the socioeconomic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic. As major debates continue to take place about internal solidarity, the question arises how the EU and its member states wish to support third countries, outside the EU, in tackling their health and economic emergencies. On the one and, the EU wishes to become a geopolitical power, which requires that the Union and its member states step up their role and support on the global scene. On the other hand, there are signs of ‘coronationalism’ with some national political parties questioning EU external aid at a time when member states themselves are struggling. Based on expert contributions from a representative cross-section of thirteen member states, this report delves into the question of whether and how external solidarity has been part of the political or public debates in Covid-struck Europe. It finds that, for now, neither ‘coronationalist’ nor geopolitical ambitions dominate the relatively little politicized debates about international cooperation and development aid.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Foreign Aid, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

50. Member states’ expectations towards the German Council Presidency

Author:
Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
As Germany assumes the presidency of the Council of the EU, the Union is facing the “biggest test of its history” according to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic and a severe economic recession could not be more extraordinary. The weight of expectations on Berlin to assume a European leadership role during the presidency are as extraordinary as those challenges. What exactly do other member states expect from Germany and how do they set their policy priorities? To answer this, the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN) has compiled an analysis of 15 different national perspectives. Czechia hopes that Germany will forge a compromise that ensures more funding for the cohesion policy and more flexibility to use those funds, including those allocated to the European Green Deal. Czechs look towards the German presidency in hope that the salience of the Green Deal will fall, arguing instead that the pandemic requires a delay – or even abandonment – of a principally green-based restructuring of the economy. The fact that studies based on the previous financial crisis indicate that green investments are ideally positioned to spur economic recovery is ignored; the resistance towards climate neutrality in Czechia is ideological rather than empirical.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Economy, Recovery, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

51. Exploring EU Member States’ Good Practices: Incentives for More Secondment into Civilian CSDP Missions

Author:
Carina Böttcher
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Civilian CSDP missions rely on EU member states to staff them with skilled experts via the instrument of secondment. But the rate of seconded personnel in missions has decreased notably over the last ten years. The key to reversing this trend is addressing obstacles at the national level that hinder the recruitment and deployment of civilian experts with specialized profiles. Targeted incentives could help overcome some of these obstacles.
Topic:
European Union, Finance, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

52. Moldova in the EU's Eastern Partnership: Lessons of a Decade

Author:
Martin Sieg
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
In Moldova, the weakness of the Eastern Partnership has been over-reliance on incentives, rather than a lack thereof. Veto players who hid their true interests by claiming allegiance to the European cause hijacked the EU’s soft power. The EaP’s shortcoming was lack of means and readiness to make these key opponents of political reforms keep their commitments. Its core challenge is how to overcome the resistance of these veto players who have been obstructing transformational goals.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

53. EU Trade Policy Reform: Levelling the Playing Field in a New Geo-Economic Environment

Author:
Claudia Schmucker and Stormy-Annika Mildner
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Today, trade policy is used more and more often to achieve geopolitical goals. To defend European interests in this new geo-economic environment, the EU must recalibrate its unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral trade toolbox. While the EU needs to counter the increasingly unlevel international playing field, self-sufficiency is not a viable option. The strength of the EU depends on its openness and integration in world markets.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

54. Protests in Russia: Supporting Systemic Change Prior to 2020’s Elections

Author:
Marina Solntseva
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Russia postponed its national vote on constitutional changes to July 1, 2020. Due to restrictions on freedom of movement and assembly from COVID-19, mass protests are unlikely to result. Nevertheless, managing growing social discontent may well be the Kremlin’s next big challenge as it prepares for September’s regional and parliamentary elections. Given its upcoming EU presidency and Council of Europe chairmanship, Germany could make a positive difference in protecting human rights and EU values in Russia.
Topic:
Human Rights, Elections, European Union, and Protests
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

55. Presidential Election in Belarus Tensions Are Likely to Prevail

Author:
András Rácz
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The impending presidential election in Belarus on August 9, 2020, is highly likely to result in the smooth victory of incumbent Alexandr Lukashenko. Despite this fact, the unprecedented – and still growing – politicization of Belarusian society constitutes a challenge to the regime that will not fade even after a clear-cut election. The resulting tensions will require more diplomatic attention from Germany and the European Union.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, European Union, Society, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Germany, and Belarus

56. Britain’s Reckoning with the Future

Author:
Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Brexit talks have entered extra time. If the UK is to leave the EU in an orderly manner, it needs a deal in the next four weeks. The trouble is that, as the prospect of leaving becomes more concrete, the government has finally recognized that it needs to honor the promises it has made to voters. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is struggling to reconcile his vague pledges with real world constraints – both internationally and domestically.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Brexit, Negotiation, and Boris Johnson
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

57. Von der Leyen’s Second Chance: The “State of the Union” Address Is Her Make-Or-Break-Moment

Author:
Julian Rappold
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Ursula von der Leyen’s first ‘State of the Union’ speech is an opportunity for her to reassert her political agenda under the conditions of COVID-19 and to set the tone for her four remaining years in office. The summit agreement in July on a recovery strategy was perceived as a leap forward for the EU but fell short of von der Leyen’s ambitions. Fault lines between member states are deepening, and interinstitutional cooperation is on the wane. This is a make-or-break moment for the Commission President.
Topic:
European Union, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

58. Macron Looks East: The French president’s visit to the Baltics offers an opportunity for closer coordination with Germany on Russia policy

Author:
Claire Demesmay and Milan Nič
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Part of French President Emmanuel Macron’s European policy is to improve the position of his country in the Eastern European member states of the European Union. Although this is not a change of strategy, but only a new method, it creates favorable conditions for intensified Franco-German dialogue on European strategic issues
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, France, Germany, and Baltic States

59. Mismatched Expectations are Straining EU-Ukraine Relations: Strengthening Mutual Trust and Credibility Should Remain Key Priority

Author:
Cristina Gherasimov
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Despite welcoming signs from the recent EU-Ukraine Summit, the underlying problems still loom large in this special relationship. The EU is running out of tools to incentivize more difficult reforms, and Ukraine is running out of arguments why it is unable to tackle corruption, oligarchs, and consolidate rule of law. With growing geopolitical turmoil in the region, a further strengthening of this partnership should be a priority. The risk of an increasing anti-Western backlash in Ukraine should not be underestimated.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

60. War in NagornoKarabakh A Two-Track Strategy for the EU

Author:
András Rácz
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
After two weeks of heavy fighting, the new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is likely to escalate further. International actors have so far been unable to broker a ceasefire. In this case, the EU, with its limited leverage, can add most value by leading a response to the inevitable humanitarian catastrophe. EU diplomatic efforts should be led by France and Germany, coordinated with other member states, and also with Russia, to the extent necessary.
Topic:
Diplomacy, War, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, France, Germany, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

61. “Germany’s EU Presidency 2020: The Security Dimension and EU-NATO Cooperation”

Author:
Ralf Roloff
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
On July 1, 2020, Germany assumed the Presidency of the Council of the European Union for the second half of 2020. How Germany manages the EU Council presidency will be of utmost importance for the future of the European Union as well as for the transatlantic relationship. The German EU presidency faces two major challenges: first, containing the coronavirus crisis and working towards a European economic recovery and second, initiating a lasting dynamic towards European solidarity, and autonomy. How are the two challenges intertwined with security questions? Germany intends to promote closer EU-NATO security cooperation. The coronavirus pandemic has tested this envisaged cooperation, but also offered new opportunities. Hence, what is the pandemic’s impact on Germany’s ambitions for EU-NATO cooperation? On July 2, 2020, the Marshall Center brought together a group of experts and alumni from Belgium, Croatia, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, and the United States in a virtual workshop designed to share their expectations for Germany’s EU presidency as well as generate ideas about how to lay the groundwork for strengthening Euro-Atlantic security and EU-NATO cooperation going forward. The following takeaways are informed by the discussion.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, European Union, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

62. Preemption: How Iran Is Reacting to the Warsaw Summit

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Following the announcement of hosting an international summit on February 13 and 14, 2019, Iran has launched a diplomatic offensive against Poland, where one of the conference main elements will be how to respond to the Iranian interventions in the region. In addition, Iran has also begun to take preemptive moves both to send messages to the powers concerned with the repercussions of those interventions and to tout its ability to contain the pressures of US policy. These moves include attempts to pivot to the East, particularly towards some neighboring countries, and hints at its ability to withdraw from the nuclear deal and resume its suspicious program again.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, Poland, North America, and United States of America

63. Possible Impacts: Implications of Building A Unified European Army on Regional Security

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
French President Emmanuel Macron’s call to create a unified European army, independent of NATO, to defend the European continent in the face of major powers such as Russia, China and even the US, has sparked a political firestorm. The most notable of these reactions came from US President Donald Trump, who tweeted rejecting the proposal and criticizing the French President, heightening tensions between the two sides. At the official level, the US State Department commented on the idea of the European Union forming an independent army of member states, stating that the US opposes any actions that could contribute to weakening NATO. “That’s been a sustained entity that the United States government and many others supported for many years, and so we would not want the weakening of NATO”, US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said on November 14, 2018.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Armed Forces, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, France, and United States of America

64. Limited Impact: European Moves to Dodge US sanctions on Iran

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The European Union seeks to continue its economic relations with Iran under the nuclear deal, despite the US withdrawal from the deal on May 8 and the imposition of new economic sanctions against Iran. Accordingly, the EU has adopted, over the past months, countermeasures to protect its economic interests with Iran and to sidestep US sanctions. The most important of these measures is introducing the “Special Purpose Vehicle” and reviving the “Blocking Statute”, as well as allowing the European Investment Bank (EIB) to work in the Iranian market. However, these mechanisms seem to have little impact due to the reluctance of the European companies and institutions themselves to continue to deal with Iran for fear of US sanctions.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

65. Renewed Differences: Repercussions of the Mounting Tension Between Iran and Europe

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Iran is keen to maintain good relations with the European countries at the current stage because they can help it cope with US pressures. These relations gained added importance after the withdrawal of the US from the nuclear deal and the re-imposition of sanctions on Tehran. However, Iran has not changed some elements of its foreign policy, which continually widens the differences between it and European states and may eventually undercut its ability to contain the repercussions of the US sanctions, with the approaching date of the toughest batch of sanctions, set to start on November 5.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, and Syria

66. The Impact of a 'No-Deal' Brexit on travel and Tourism

Author:
Simon Kyte, David Goodger, and Helen McDermott
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
A “no-deal” Brexit would cause a 5% drop in UK outbound travel and tourism trips in 2020, because of the stifled economic backdrop and impact of a weaker pound. Ireland and Spain would be the hardest hit from fewer UK visitors. In contrast, the weaker pound could mean that UK tourism inflows are 4% higher in a “no-deal” scenario, provided there is no travel disruption. But lower levels of domestic tourism mean that we would expect UK travel and tourism GDP to be 2% lower than our baseline forecast in 2020.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Tourism, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

67. The Dilemma of the EU’s Future Trade Relations with Western Sahara

Author:
Guillaume Van der Loo
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Following the Court of Justice’s rulings on the Front Polisario, the EU is facing thorny legal and political challenges to include Western Sahara in its trade agreements with Morocco. On 27 February 2018, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) delivered a new judgement in Case C-266/16 Western Sahara Campaign UK concerning the territorial application of an EU-Morocco agreement to Western Sahara, giving rise once again to diplomatic tensions between the EU and Rabat. The Court concluded that neither the Fisheries Agreement (2006) nor the associated Protocol (2013) are applicable to the waters adjacent to the territory of Western Sahara. The Court closely followed the analysis it had made in C-104/16 Council v. Front Polisario, in which it held that the EU-Morocco Association Agreement (AA) and the 2012 agreement liberalising (processed) agricultural and fishery products (the “Liberalisation Agreement”) do not apply to Western Sahara. Whereas the Court clarifies the role of international law in the EU’s external policies in these fascinating cases, it leaves the European Commission in a very difficult situation, both legally and politically, to deal with the policy-consequences of these judgments. Western Sahara is recognised as a non-self-governing territory in accordance with Article 73 of the UN Charter, and the right to self-determination for such territories, Western Sahara in particular, has been stressed several times by different UN Resolutions and the International Court of Justice (e.g. its Advisory Opinion of 1975 on Western Sahara). The largest part of Western Sahara is still controlled by Morocco, which considers this territory to be an integral part of its sovereign territory, while the Front Polisario (the liberalisation movement seeking independence of Western Sahara) controls the remainder. Although the EU and its member states have never recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, the EU has de facto been applying the EU-Morocco Liberalisation Agreement and Fisheries Agreement to (the waters adjacent to) Western Sahara, as confirmed by both the Council and the Commission.
Topic:
International Relations, International Law, European Union, Trade, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Western Sahara

68. The Fifth Eastern Partnership Summit: Between hyperbole and understatement

Author:
Hrant Kostanyan
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Summits are glitzy events that bring together the highest level of officials – the heads of state and government. These occasions naturally attract the interest of both the media and the public, raise expectations, increase tensions, create drama and heighten the rhetoric – but sometimes they end in disappointment. And this is exactly what the EU would like to avoid in the upcoming 5th Eastern Partnership (EaP) summit, which will bring together most of the leaders of the EU and its Eastern partners – namely Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – on November 24th in Brussels. The summit will be essentially a stocktaking exercise in which its principals reflect on the difficulties that the Partnership has encountered and the reforms it has undertaken to meet and mitigate the growing challenges. But more importantly, in the midst of the political hyperbole, the summit will aim to chart a pragmatic way forward to bring about tangible and positive results for citizens in a host of sectors ranging from energy efficiency and transport to youth employment and SMEs.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Regional Integration, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia