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Begin New Search Content Type Commentary and Analysis Publication Year within 10 Years

1. Pakistan Steps In: Sudan and the Transformation of Regional Security

Author:
Areig Elhag
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A $1.5 billion Pakistani arms deal with Sudan signals a regional shift from diplomacy toward military escalation, which may prolong the war in Sudan. At a moment that should have seen renewed momentum toward a political settlement in Sudan, reports suggest that Pakistan, with Saudi mediation, is nearing completion of a $1.5 billion arms deal with the war-torn country. Far from being a routine arms transaction, the deal encompasses Karakoram-8 aircraft, more than 200 drones, and air defense systems. It also potentially includes JF-17 multirole fighter jets, produced jointly by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. This development points to a deeper regional shift away from sponsoring dialogue and toward a military resolution to the Sudanese conflict.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Regional Security, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Africa, and Sudan

2. Prospects for Syria-Israel Relations

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israel may believe the tense status quo is sustainable, but Washington is frustrated about the potential implications for Arab normalization, Turkish military friction, and near-term economic plans.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

3. Venezuela: The Emperor Has No Clothes

Author:
Anil Anand
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:
America’s attack on Venezuela—alongside threats to annex Greenland, incorporate Canada as its 51st state, attack Colombia, or seize control of the Panama Canal—raises existential concerns about America’s commitment to a rule-based order and the legitimacy of the prevailing system for global governance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Order, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:
South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

4. Revitalizing Integrated Tactical Units to Combat West Africa’s Irregular Militant Groups

Author:
Fatai Alli
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Legacy battalion-based formations designed for conventional, linear warfare are poorly matched for the dispersed, fast-moving insurgent threats confronting multiple West African countries. Enhanced operational mobility ensures reach, speed, and tactical unpredictability. Effectiveness in contemporary irregular warfare depends on integrated tactical units, intelligence-enabled maneuver, and sustained operational reach.
Topic:
Security, Counterinsurgency, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

5. Can Indonesia Fight Disinformation Without Oppression?

Author:
Ika Idris and Eka Nugraha Putrais
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:
Indonesia is attempting to regulate disinformation and foreign propaganda, risking the country’s democracy, which is already in decline.
Topic:
Democracy, Institutions, Propaganda, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

6. Europe’s Migration Governance Dilemma

Author:
Elena Potitò
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The EU’s migration governance model increasingly relies on externalisation, which is widely criticised for lacking accountability and failing to respect fundamental rights. This model is particularly pronounced in the Western Balkans, where infringements of procedural rights and violent practices against migrants are frequently reported. If the EU fails to reconcile its own values with its migration policies, it will further undermine its international credibility, at the expense of individuals attempting to reach EU borders.
Topic:
Migration, Governance, European Union, Refugees, Borders, and Externalization
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

7. Netanyahu’s Long Game to Reorder the Middle East

Author:
Akram Zaoui
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As the inspirator of the ongoing war in the Middle East, Netanyahu’s actions must be read through decades of political action. US participation in the war marks the apex of years of manoeuvring in Washington to reshape the region. Goals sought include obliteration of regional strategic threats and normalisation with Arab countries from a position of undisputable strength.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Normalization, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

8. Learning Mandarin, Riding the Metro: China’s Street-Level Presence in Bogotá

Author:
Tony Kirby
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
China’s presence in Colombia is no longer an abstract geopolitical discussion but rather a reality negotiated day by day through construction work, commercial exchange, language learning, and personal relationships.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Construction
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Colombia, and South America

9. An Unbowed Petro Successfully Plays the Diplomat

Author:
Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s positive meeting with Trump stands to benefit not only his coalition, but also the region writ large.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, Regional Politics, and Gustavo Petro
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, North America, and United States of America

10. The Amazon’s Invisible Crisis: How Environmental Crime Is Reshaping Humanitarian Emergencies

Author:
Ludmila Quirós
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
As environmental crimes threaten Indigenous communities in the Amazon, their struggles are ignored by a humanitarian system that has rendered such emergencies invisible.
Topic:
Environment, Indigenous, Humanitarian Crisis, and Environmental Crime
Political Geography:
South America and Amazon

11. Milei’s War against the Working Class

Author:
Juan Cruz Ferre and Cecilia Garcilazo
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Argentina’s sweeping labor reform, heavily resisted in the streets, is set to roll back nearly a century of hard-fought rights.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Protests, Labor Rights, Working Class, Javier Milei, and Labor Reform
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

12. Faith and Body: New Battle Over Abortion in Argentina

Author:
Leonel Fernández
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Reproductive rights in Argentina face increased obstacles as the administration of Javier Milei emboldens anti-rights groups and politicians.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Far Right, Reproductive Rights, Abortion, and Javier Milei
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

13. Argentina’s Glaciers are Under Threat

Author:
Olivia Ferrari
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
As the country’s far-right government attempts to undo groundbreaking legislation that has protected glaciers for 15 years, activists are fighting back.
Topic:
Climate Change, Far Right, Activism, and Glaciers
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

14. Bolivia into the Abyss

Author:
Angus McNelly
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Fuel shortages, inflation, and political exclusion have triggered a wave of fragmented unrest with no clear movement capable of channeling popular anger.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Inflation, Fossil Fuels, and Exclusion
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

15. Impunity and the Permanent Coup in Peru

Author:
George Ygarza
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
A massacre in a peripheral area of Peru highlights how the state has built a system that perpetuates impunity.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Impunity, Coup, and Massacre
Political Geography:
South America and Peru

16. Nuclear Energy’s New Momentum: Can World Capacity Triple by 2050?

Author:
Julius Cesar Imperial Trajano
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The second Nuclear Energy Summit highlighted renewed global momentum to expand nuclear power as countries face volatile fossil-fuel supplies amid ongoing Middle East tensions. With governments pledging to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, nuclear energy is once again being positioned as a reliable low-carbon pillar of energy security. However, the speed and credibility of this expansion will ultimately depend not only on financing and technology, but also on regulatory institutions, industrial capacity, and a skilled workforce needed to govern it safely.
Topic:
Carbon Emissions, Nuclear Energy, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

17. Global Water Bankruptcy: Southeast Asia’s Water Future Is a Peace and Security Issue

Author:
Adam Hansen and Julius Cesar Imperial Trajano
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
As the world enters an era of water bankruptcy, Southeast Asia faces a future with increased competition over shared water resources. With data centres reliant on water-intensive cooling systems, adding to the region’s drivers of water insecurity, stronger multistakeholder cooperation and confidence-building measures are crucial to reduce tensions and enhance sustainable water management.
Topic:
Security, Natural Resources, Water, Peace, Competition, and Data Centers
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

18. Food Security in ASEAN’s 2026 Agenda: Perspectives on Human Security and Inclusiveness Amidst Crises

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Kayven Tan, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Farmers form the backbone of ASEAN agriculture but are increasingly vulnerable amidst crises and longer-term structural challenges, including ageing, urbanisation, and natural disasters. A human security approach that prioritises these vulnerabilities is integral to resilience.
Topic:
Agriculture, Natural Disasters, Urbanization, Food Security, Human Security, ASEAN, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Asia and Global Focus

19. The UN Climate Regime and the US Withdrawal

Author:
Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Trump administration announced the US withdrawal from the international climate regime earlier this year. One possible explanation lies in the growing influence of the IPCC’s scientific authority in domestic spheres, which may have altered the perceived costs and benefits of continued participation. Despite the US absence, the UNFCCC remains an important platform for international climate cooperation.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

20. Securing ASEAN’s Food Resilience Amidst the Middle East Conflict

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Kayven Tan, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Middle East conflict is set to have a double-whammy impact on both ASEAN’s import of fertilisers, and its energy-intensive fertiliser production. The timing is critical as in the coming months, the five major crops, including rice, are being planted in ASEAN.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, Resilience, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Middle East and Asia

21. Effective Sustainable Development

Author:
Barry Buzan
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
How can we make the concept of sustainable development more effective? Finding a pathway towards effective sustainable development (ESD) becomes more urgent as global warming specifically, and the Anthropocene crisis generally, intensify. It helps to take a long view of development and its role in global society (the anthroposphere) before focusing on what characteristics ESD needs to have.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Anthropocene, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Asia

22. “Luciérnagas en El Mozote” And The Battle Over Historical Memory in El Salvador

Author:
Kevin Ramírez
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
A state-backed film detailing the 1981 massacre at El Mozote raises thorny questions about the country’s civil war as the victims continue fighting for justice.
Topic:
Civil War, Transitional Justice, Memory, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Latin America and El Salvador

23. An LGBTQ+ Win in the Dominican Republic Comes Under Fire

Author:
Simón Rodríguez
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Despite the recent decriminalization of same-sex relationships in the armed forces and police, the ruling is being attacked by the right-wing government and its allies.
Topic:
Armed Forces, LGBT+, Police, Decriminalization, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America and Dominican Republic

24. Bolivians Enter a New Era of Popular Struggles

Author:
Gabriel Rodríguez García
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
After a series of protests over cuts to fuel subsidies brought the country to a halt, Bolivia’s powerful social movements embark on a new chapter and face new forms of repression.
Topic:
Social Movement, Repression, Fossil Fuels, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

25. Colombia Debates “Total Peace” and “Total War”

Author:
Joshua Collins and Daniela Diaz Rangel
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The June 21 presidential runoff will feature starkly different approaches to the growing power of armed and criminal groups.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Elections, Organized Crime, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

26. Has Syria turned a corner on the landmine threat?

Author:
Muaz Al Abdullah
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
While Syria's security landscape has shifted since the fall of the Assad regime, the deadliest threat to civilians is no longer concentrated on active frontlines. Instead, it lies hidden beneath the ground. Landmines and Explosive Remnants of War (ERW) continue to kill and injure civilians across the country.
Topic:
Security, Syrian War, and Landmines
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

27. Defending before the International Criminal Court: An Interview with Mylène Dimitri

Author:
Mylène Dmitri, Cailan Cumming, Kate Gibson, and Paul Williams
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This blog is part of the Defending Justice series, an initiative of the Public International Law and Policy Group (PILPG) to promote an eclectic array of voices within the field of international criminal law. As part of our broader efforts to strengthen institutions of justice, this series seeks to create space for dialogue around the varied perspectives and concerns that shape these institutions. With that aim in mind, we interviewed a series of defense practitioners working in international criminal law and distilled their experiences and insights into a series of first-person blogs, preserving the spirit and voice of those interviews.
Topic:
International Law, Interview, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. Why Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine Cannot Be Cured by a Vote: A Legal and Historical Reality Check

Author:
Greta Ramelli, Kateryna Kyrychenko, David Griffiths, Clyde Freeman, Anastasia Zaluckyj, Dmyro Panchenko, and Rahul Ramesh
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
A persistent assumption in some policy debates is that concessions of territories under Russia’s occupation will offer a pathway to ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Trump administration has repeatedly supported this thesis. While European officials have generally been more cautious, the possibility of territorial compromise has nevertheless entered public debate, including in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have, however, distinguished between acknowledging the difficulty of restoring control by force in the near term and legally recognizing Russia’s claims over occupied territory. Yet, this argument rests on a critical assumption that ceding territories would be sufficient to stop Russia’s aggression. This premise is far from settled. Analysts have repeatedly noted that Russia’s war aims extend well beyond Donbas, Crimea, or the mere acquisition of territory. The conduct of the war, characterized by war crimes and crimes against humanity, including systematic attacks on civilian infrastructure, forced deportations, and efforts to erase Ukrainian cultural identity, raises serious doubts about whether any concession, large or small, would meaningfully alter Russia’s strategic objectives. The trajectory of the war suggests the opposite: that Russia’s war is more than just an attempt to gain strategic territories and that ceding some territories is unlikely to bring peace. Even if it is doubtful that territorial concessions would meaningfully alter the course of Russia’s campaign, it is still necessary to examine all potential scenarios that could influence how the war might eventually conclude. Considering these possibilities does not suggest that concessions are advisable or likely to succeed; it just reflects the need to understand the full range of legal, historical, and practical constraints that would shape any hypothetical settlement. Assuming (purely for the sake of analysis) that territorial concessions could form part of a hypothetical negotiation, far more difficult questions immediately arise: how would such concessions be made? What legal mechanisms would be required? What constraints would international law impose? What limits does Ukrainian constitutional law create? And what can be learned from past conflicts in which referenda, territorial claims, or post‑conflict votes were used or proposed? These questions are not abstract. They go to the heart of whether territorial concessions are legally possible and historically realistic, even before one considers whether they are politically desirable. This blog post therefore examines the legal architecture, domestic constitutional constraints, and historical precedents that shape what is and is not possible.
Topic:
International Law, History, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

29. Roundtable Blog: Four Years Since Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion Into Ukraine: What Have We Learned?

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This blogpost is part of the PILPG Lawyering Peace roundtable series. Rather than a traditional co-authored article, it presents a curated set of expert reflections from members of PILPG’s Peace Fellows and Ambassador Circle networks. Marking four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, this roundtable examines how the war has reshaped international law, global security architecture, accountability mechanisms, and our understanding of modern aggression. Anniversaries invite commemoration. This roundtable instead invites assessment. Four years on, the international community possesses insights that were unavailable in the early days of the invasion. The war has tested the resilience of collective defense systems, exposed the limitations and adaptability of international institutions, accelerated transformations in military technology and information warfare, and catalyzed new approaches to sanctions, energy security, and legal accountability. It has also revealed both the extraordinary durability of Ukrainian statehood and the profound human costs of prolonged high-intensity conflict. This collection seeks to move beyond retrospective narrative toward forward-looking analysis. What assumptions proved mistaken? What institutional innovations have emerged? How has the legal framework governing aggression and atrocity crimes evolved under pressure? What lessons should policymakers internalize to deter future wars of aggression? By elevating diverse expert perspectives across disciplines, this roundtable aims to distill the most consequential lessons of the past four years — and to consider how they should inform the future of peacebuilding, deterrence, and the international legal order.
Topic:
Security, International Law, Accountability, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

30. PILPG Roundtable Blog: Creating the Conditions for Peace in 2026 - Expert Perspectives on Ukraine’s Strategic Position and Negotiations

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
More than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the debate over Ukraine’s path to a just and durable peace has entered a new phase. Recent developments on the battlefield, renewed diplomatic contacts, and shifts in international support have prompted fresh discussion about Ukraine’s strategic position and the conditions under which negotiations could contribute to a lasting settlement. To continue this conversation, PILPG invited members of its Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group, former senior diplomats, ambassadors, international prosecutors, and leading experts in international law, peace negotiations, and security to share their views on three questions: How should Ukraine’s current strategic position be assessed? When, if at all, should negotiations become a priority? And what should Ukraine’s international partners do now to maximize the prospects for a just and durable peace? While the experts approached these questions from different professional backgrounds, several points of agreement stood out. They broadly agreed that Ukraine’s position is stronger than battlefield maps alone suggest, that negotiations should not come at the expense of continued support, and that lasting peace will require careful preparation long before any final agreement is reached.
Topic:
International Law, Negotiation, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

31. Extraordinary Accession: Why Europe Must Bring Ukraine into the European Union Now

Author:
David M. Crane
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
Europe stands at a geopolitical crossroads. Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has shattered the illusion that the post-Cold War order could be preserved through incrementalism, dialogue, or strategic ambiguity. Moscow is betting quite openly that Europe will hesitate, delay, and ultimately retreat from the historic question of Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. The Kremlin’s strategic calculation is simple: Europe will not bring Ukraine into the EU in the short or medium term, regardless of political declarations or symbolic gestures such as the Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Kyiv in March 2026. This policy paper argues the opposite. Europe must bring Ukraine into the European Union now - not as a conventional accession, not as a “fast track,” but as an extraordinary accession that recognizes the singular nature of Ukraine’s struggle and the existential stakes for Europe itself. Political membership should be granted immediately, with the technical and treaty-based obligations phased in over time. This is not only feasible; it is strategically necessary. Ukraine’s accession would send an unmistakable signal to Russia and the international community: Ukraine is Europe - permanently, irreversibly, and without qualification.
Topic:
International Law, European Union, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

32. PILPG Roundtable Blog Part I: Ukraine’s EU Accession: Perspectives of Enlargement During the War

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This roundtable explores one of the most consequential strategic questions facing Europe today: Ukraine’s accession to the European Union amid an ongoing war of aggression. Building on discussions within the Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG) Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group, this piece brings together expert perspectives on how enlargement policy is being reshaped by geopolitics, security imperatives, and the pursuit of a just and durable peace. Presented under the Lawyering Peace initiative, this roundtable situates EU accession not merely as a technical legal process, but as a defining test of Europe’s political will and strategic identity. As Ukraine continues to defend itself, its European trajectory has become inseparable from broader questions of deterrence, stability, and the future of the European project itself. On 10 April 2026, members of PILPG’s Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group convened to assess the evolving trajectory of Ukraine’s EU accession process. More than a decade after the Maidan protests set Ukraine on its European path, accession now unfolds under radically different conditions: amid full-scale war, shifting transatlantic dynamics, and renewed debates about Europe’s strategic autonomy.
Topic:
International Law, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

33. The Global South and the Russian War on Ukraine: Structural Constraints on Diplomatic Alignment: An assessment of the political, economic, and institutional factors shaping multilateral engagement with Russia's war against Ukraine

Author:
Paul R. Williams
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
Three years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a striking diplomatic gap persists between the breadth of international condemnation and the depth of practical alignment. While 141 states voted in the UN General Assembly to demand Russia's immediate withdrawal in March 2022, the countries that have joined Western-led sanctions regimes, restricted Russian access to their financial systems, or curtailed bilateral trade with Moscow represent a narrower group. That gap is not incidental and it reflects durable structural realities across the Global South that are rooted in economic dependencies, regional security pressures, institutional history, and the architecture of development finance. Understanding those realities is a prerequisite for any realistic assessment of how the conflict's diplomatic landscape might evolve. A related question follows from this analysis: given the structural depth of these constraints, whether Ukraine's diplomatic strategy would be better served by consolidating and sustaining existing Western commitments rather than investing heavily in outreach to states whose non-alignment is unlikely to shift within any operationally relevant timeframe.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Law, Sanctions, Multilateralism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global South

34. Roundtable Blog: Voting Under Duress — Referenda, Aggression, and the Limits of Democratic Consent

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This post is part of the PILPG Lawyering Justice roundtable series. Rather than a traditional co-authored article, it presents a curated set of expert reflections from members of PILPG’s Ukraine Peace Negotiations Working Group. Drawing on a closed-door discussion held on 6 February 2026, this roundtable examines one of the most legally and politically fraught questions facing Ukraine: whether a national referendum can play a legitimate role in a peace process shaped by aggression, occupation, and mass displacement. Referenda are commonly understood as the highest expression of democratic will. Yet in contexts defined by coercion and force, democratic instruments themselves may be distorted into tools that legitimise unlawful outcomes. This roundtable explores the legal limits of consent under international law, the precedent-setting risks of post-aggression referenda, and the strategic choices Ukraine faces in navigating popular participation without eroding its sovereignty or the international legal order.
Topic:
International Law, Voting, Referendum, Russia-Ukraine War, and Aggression
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

35. Reflections on WTO Reform: Lecture series by Ignacio Garcia Bercero

Author:
Ignacio Garcia Bercero
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This special edition of our Expert Analysis presents four lectures (edited for publication) on World Trade Organization reform delivered by the author at LSE IDEAS during June-November 2022 and concluding in May 2023. The paper ends on a postscript reflecting on the perspectives on the different issues discussed in the lectures following the outcome of the 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO in February-March 2024, as well as the November 2024 re-election of Donald Trump—on the basis of a disruptive trade policy agenda.
Topic:
Reform, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and WTO
Political Geography:
Global Focus

36. Assad’s Fall Is an Opportunity for a U.S. Win Over China

Author:
Grant Rumley
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Beijing consistently supported the regime’s brutal repressive measures, so cozying up to the rebel-led transition government may be more difficult than it expects. In the months since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023, China has seized on the conflict to criticize not only Israel but by extension the U.S. and its position in the region. For years, Chinese diplomats had been careful to toe a centrist line in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calibrating their language to avoid offending either side too greatly. Yet as the conflict has dragged on the past year, and as the region’s criticisms of the U.S. have risen, Beijing sensed an opportunity to diminish the U.S. standing while boosting its own. Chinese officials have regularly omitted mention of Hamas’s atrocities while blasting Israel and the U.S. for its support. Now, however, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has presented the U.S. with a similar opportunity...
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, Bashar al-Assad, 2023 Gaza War, and Transitional Government
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

37. In Syria, America Should Be Ruthlessly Focused on the Islamic State

Author:
Joseph Votel and Elizabeth Dent
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With the U.S. military presence on a potentially short timetable, officials should prioritize policies that ensure the continued security of Islamic State detention facilities, such as brokering local ceasefire agreements and alleviating Turkish concerns. Five years ago, we warned that a snap decision to depart Syria would be a devastating setback and damage American credibility. A few weeks later, amongst a U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion into areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, we argued the United States would need to maintain the ability to fight remnants of the Islamic State and ensure the fighters in detention remain there. Washington ceded much of its negotiating power in the country to Moscow and Ankara, only to reverse course a few months later and keep a small allotment of troops in northeast Syria to prevent a power vacuum and a run on Syrian oil and gas infrastructure. Today, the United States and its Kurdish-led partners face a nearly identical set of challenges, but in a massively changed balance of power in Syria. And despite political nominees’ reassurances that the United States is unlikely to abandon its partners there, Trump himself has been more ambivalent...
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islamic State, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

38. PMF Non-Deployment to Save Assad: Sudani’s View Contradicted by Iran

Author:
Hamdi Malik
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Iraqi prime minister portrayed Baghdad's non-intervention in Syria as a sovereign decision, but Iranian leaders gave a different explanation. Iranian and Iraqi narratives surrounding recent events in Syria reveal clear contradictions, particularly regarding the role of Iraqi muqawama (resistance) militias in efforts to preserve Bashar al-Assad’s regime. High-ranking Iranian officials offered accounts that challenged Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s portrayal of events, asserting that external threats rather than Sudani’s leadership ultimately limited the extent of Iraq’s involvement.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

39. Gaza Ceasefire: Implications for Israel, Hamas, and U.S. Policy

Author:
Dennis Ross, Matthew Levitt, and Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Former Israeli and U.S. officials discuss the deal’s timing, provisions, and near-term prospects, outlining the Trump administration’s practical options for advancing peace in Gaza and beyond.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

40. The US TikTok Ban, the RedNote Moment and China

Author:
Aurelio Insisa
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On 23 April 2024, the US Senate passed a bill forcing the Chinese company ByteDance to choose between divesting from its prized social platform TikTok, one of the dominant apps among Americans aged 18-29,[1] or accepting its ban on US soil. Following ByteDance’s refusal to divest, the US Supreme Court upheld the ban on 17 January 2025. The ban on TikTok rested on national security grounds. TikTok is technically a limited liability corporation registered in Delaware and with headquarters in Singapore and Los Angeles. Yet, its parent company ByteDance, while incorporated in the Cayman Islands, is based in Beijing and subject to a domestic legal framework legally requiring it to “provide assistance” to the Chinese government, including, crucially, giving up the data of TikTok users.[2] Further highlighting the limited autonomy of the company vis-à-vis Chinese authorities, “cells” of the Chinese Communist Party have been embedded within the structures of the company since 2017.[3] In short, ByteDance cannot guarantee that the personal data of its users could be kept at arm’s length from Beijing. While the Senate’s bill enjoyed bipartisan support, then President-elect Donald J. Trump publicly stated that he would not enforce the ban. Throughout the 2024 electoral campaign, Trump had announced – in contrast with most of the Republican Party members of Congress – his opposition to the bill, acknowledging how the platform had been a relevant tool for re-election.[4] On 19 January, Trump announced that he would consider imposing a 90-day delay of the ban and search for a joint-venture between ByteDance and a US company.[5] Two days later, he suggested the possibility that either Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla, owner of X, and Administrator of the Department of Government Efficiency in the new administration), or Larry Ellison (chairman of Oracle) would buy the social media platform.[6]
Topic:
Social Media, Digital Policy, and TikTok
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

41. Trump First, America Second

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In his inaugural address to a nation half-enthusiastic and half-stunned still by the most extraordinary political comeback in US history, Donald Trump portrayed himself as the saviour of the nation, chosen by God Himself to finally turn America First from slogan to reality and truly ‘make America great again’.[1] The mixture of politics, ideology and megalomaniac eschatology is especially interesting because Trump has tied the fate of the nation to his personal fortunes like no other president before him. As he puts it, the realisation of America First is inextricably linked to his personal power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ideology, Far Right, Donald Trump, and Nativism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

42. A Tough Opponent for Trump: Inflation

Author:
Matteo Bursi
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
According to several pre-election polls, the economy was perceived by many US voters as the key topic in deciding whether to vote Democratic or Republican in the 2024 presidential elections.[1] During Joe Biden’s administration, the US GDP grew steadily and unemployment reached very low levels. Nevertheless, for the first time since 2004, the Democratic Party lost the presidency, the popular vote, the House of Representatives and the Senate. This seemingly paradoxical situation, according to some commentators, finds an explanation in the issue of inflation.[2] From this perspective, a significant number of Americans reportedly voted for Donald Trump due to the sharp price increases experienced during the past four years, blaming the outgoing Democratic administration for failing to sufficiently protect the purchasing power of US citizens and businesses. During and after the election campaign, the tycoon has claimed that he can curb inflation, emphasising his plan to intensify the exploitation of domestic energy resources. This proposal – covered by one of the many executive orders signed by Trump upon taking office – could help contain price increases but is unlikely to be a definitive solution. Likewise, its effectiveness could be largely offset by inflationary pressures arising from other policies that the Republican politician has promised to implement.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Economic Policy, Inflation, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

43. The New Syria and the Regional Balance of Power

Author:
Amjed Rasheed
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on 8 December 2024 and the subsequent rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now leading the Syrian interim government in the country, have dramatically shaped the regional balance of power. Remarkably, the HTS-led interim government has been making some serious attempts to consolidate its control, and boost legitimacy, but also rebuild Syria after 14 years of civil war and a half-a-century of Assad dynasty rule. In its pursuit to achieve these ends, the interim government has launched diplomatic efforts toward regional and international powerhouses. Everybody, including Russia, is currently welcome to visit Damascus. Yet there is also failure so far to open up the transition to others, which could generate grievances and lead to disruptive regional interference. While the success of such a policy remains to be gauged, the HTS approach to accommodate regional contradiction is worth explaining.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Gulf Nations

44. The Mattei Plan One Year On

Author:
Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On 28-29 January 2024, the Italian Senate hosted the Italy-Africa Summit, bringing together 21 heads of state and government from African countries, along with other representatives of African, European and global organisations. The African representatives were gathered by the announcement that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni would publicly present the Mattei Plan, a project with which the Italian government wants to redesign relations with the continent based on “equal-to-equal” collaboration. A year later, it is possible to take a first stock of announcements, projects and weaknesses that have emerged so far.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Public-Private Partnership, Collaboration, and Mattei Plan
Political Geography:
Africa, Italy, and North America

45. The European Screening Mechanism and Its Implications for Chinese FDI

Author:
Emanuele Ballestracci
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The European Commission has recently proposed a revision of the EU foreign direct investment (FDI) screening mechanism, originally established in 2020. The aim is to further strengthen the EU’s economic security within the framework of its “de-risking” policy, which aims to manage risks coming from the economic and technological engagement with China.[1] The new proposal aims to address major shortcomings in the current screening mechanism, expanding its scope to greenfield investments and European outward FDI. However, this could conflict with the EU’s goal of encouraging Chinese greenfield investment and joint ventures, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

46. Trump’s Call with Putin Raises Great Concerns, Few Hopes

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
US President Donald Trump’s phone call with Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin, especially when read in combination with Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth’s re-definition of US Europe policy, casts a long shadow. There are good reasons to be more concerned than hopeful about the peace deal that seems to be taking shape in the minds of the US Administration. At the same time, there are elements suggesting a less pessimistic assessment of the looming negotiations. Trump’s call with Putin has made a big splash but has not yet pierced Ukraine’s armour.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

47. Another Transatlanticism Is Possible: Europe’s Moment in Latin America amid Trump’s Return

Author:
Raffaele Piras
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited his hallmark “America First” agenda, with significant consequences for Latin America. During his inaugural address, Trump emphasised the need to regain US control of the Panama Canal, framing it as a cornerstone of national security amidst heightened competition with China.[1] This rhetoric marks the continuation of a policy approach that relies on coercion and transactional diplomacy to achieve US objectives. While Trump’s focus on Latin America will undoubtedly reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics, it also presents a strategic opportunity for the European Union to strengthen its role as a stabilising force and reliable partner.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

48. A Three-year War and Four Lessons for Europe

Author:
Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The tragic third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022 witnesses the start of diplomatic talks between Russia and the United States on the possible end of the conflict. Three years of large-scale, high-intensity war of attrition in Europe, with over a million dead or injured soldiers, offers at least four politico-military lessons for European countries, the EU and NATO. Lessons to bear in mind through this negotiation for the future not only of Ukraine but of the security of the whole continent.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Transatlantic Relations, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

49. Giorgia Meloni’s Italy between Trump and Europe: Fateful Choices Ahead

Author:
Maria Luisa Fantappiè, Leo Goretti, and Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The priority should be “preventing divisions within the West and the transatlantic alliance”, while “rooting for” this or that side would not be helpful: it is thus that Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni commented on the spat in the Oval Office between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump,[1] and by extension, between Washington and Europe. In the aftermath of the clash, while most European leaders openly supported Zelensky, Meloni’s reticence was notable. The choice was tough. Siding with Zelensky would jeopardise Meloni’s aspiration to become the go-to EU leader for Washington. And yet, siding with Trump would lay bare a lack of commitment to Europe and especially the defence of Ukraine, for which Meloni had previously shown constant support. At the ensuing London Summit on Ukraine, Meloni couldn’t hide her discomfort.[2] The resolve of European leaders – spearheaded by the French president Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer – in advocating for a strategic Europe seemed to shelve Meloni’s carefully crafted plan to leverage her bilateral ties with the Trump administration to bolster her role in Europe – even at the cost of fragmenting its unity. Meanwhile, at home, her junior coalition partner Matteo Salvini openly sided with Trump, in an attempt to present himself as an alternative to Meloni and to win consensus among that sizable chunk of the Italian public opinion who wants to see an end to the war in Ukraine.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, Russia-Ukraine War, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:
Europe, Italy, and United States of America

50. Trump’s Exit from the Paris Agreement: An Opportunity for the EU to Back South Africa’s Climate Leadership

Author:
Bongiwe Ngcobo-Mphahlele and Darlington Tshuma
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In his address to the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos in January 2025,[1] South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa – who currently chairs the G20, the first African leader to do so – outlined a bold and assertive agenda centred on global cooperation, inclusive growth and sustainable development. His address included a renewed call for transparency in the allocation of climate resources and the reform of the global financial architecture that has long been criticised as too rigid to support long-term sustainable development in the Global South.[2]
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economics, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Europe, South Africa, North America, and United States of America