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2042. Presidential elections in Moldova: A sad end to a once promising story
- Author:
- Ryhor Nizhnikau
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Moldova’s presidential elections offer no hope for change in a country run by a destructive and shortsighted elite. Igor Dodon won the elections, but the main victor in 2016 is the oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc, who has monopolized power in Moldova.
- Topic:
- Power Politics, Political Power Sharing, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Moldova and Eastern Europe
2043. The US in the Asia-Pacific: Continuing rebalance towards a region in flux
- Author:
- Bart Gaens
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The evolving Asia-Pacific region is marked by increased balancing strategies, the forging of flexible partnerships between countries, and economic interconnectedness. In order to retain a central role and achieve a new equilibrium, the US will need to adapt to these changes.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Affairs, Geopolitics, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- America and Asia-Pacific
2044. Possible Benefits of American Parameters for the Two-State Solution.
- Author:
- Mitvim
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- As US President Barack Obama’s term in office is nearing its end, he may choose to present parameters for an Israeli-Palestinian final-status agreement before departing from the White House, similar to what President Bill Clinton did in 2000. The window of opportunity for this is between the US presidential elections (November 8, 2016) to the inauguration of the next president (January 20, 2017).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Fragile States
- Political Geography:
- America, Israel, and Palestine
2045. Lessons from Cyprus for Israel-Palestine: Can Negotiations Still Work?
- Author:
- Dahlia Scheindlin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Cyprus conflict has been a protracted, unresolved conflict for roughly five decades. The two conflicts share ethno-nationalist and territorial dimensions; tension between a sovereign state and a sub-state entity, and a hostile military presence; decades of failed negotiations, with both sides showing ambiguous commitment to the intended political framework for resolution (two states, or a federated state, respectively); and high involvement of the international community. This paper maps points of comparison related to conflict resolution efforts in both cases, including references to the civil society, public, political leadership, and negotiation processes.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Palestine
2046. Who Will Inherit Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas?
- Author:
- Ido Zelkovitz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The Fatah movement and the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Movement) leadership are experiencing a deep internal crisis. In 1969, Fatah leader Yassir Arafat took control of PLO institutions and imposed a political containment policy, combined with a heavy hand, against his opponents. Since then, the Palestinian national liberation movement has been characterized by a highly centralized authority structure. Mahmoud Abbas, an absolute ruler, inherited three ‘hats’ from his predecessor Arafat: In addition to serving as Chairman of the PLO’s Executive Committee and President of the Palestinian Authority, Abbas also serves as Chairman of the Fatah movement. Fatah is the ruling party in PLO institutions, and constitutes the political backbone of the Palestinian Authority. The Palestinian justification for the establishment of such centralized rule was the complexity of the negotiations that were held with Israel in the 1990s.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies, International Affairs, Fragile States, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Palestine
2047. Can Israel and Palestine learn from Colombia?
- Author:
- Dahlia Scheindlin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- It is rare to hear any good news about conflicts de-escalating. This week, the world rallied around the implementation of a ceasefire between the notorious and shadowy FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) and the Colombia government. The conflict has dragged on for over fifty years. The most obvious and optimistic point is that a long and bloody past need not be the future forever. But other useful points are emerging, for comparison and maybe inspiration.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Colombia, and Palestine
2048. A strategy for Europe’s neighbourhood: keep resilient and carry on?
- Author:
- Sven Biscop
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Elcano Royal Institute
- Abstract:
- If it cannot offer more than building up resilience, the EU risks locking itself out of its own neighbourhood. While external and regional powers are engaged in fierce geopolitical competition in Europe’s neighbourhood, the EU itself wants to focus on building up the resilience of its neighbours. Not only is it far from clear who is to be made resilient against what where there is no more or less benign government but, where countries are only just coming out of war, their first priority is national survival and their demand is for security guarantees. Would sovereignty and equality not be a better Leitmotiv for EU strategy in the neighbourhood?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- European Union
2049. Spain and Israel: are they rivals or complementary?
- Author:
- Alfred Tovias
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Elcano Royal Institute
- Abstract:
- At the two Western and Eastern geographic extremes of the Mediterranean basin, Spain and Israel –both OECD member countries– have been developing over the past three decades in totally different directions. Spain is increasingly looking North towards the EU but also towards Latin America, while Israel is actively developing its relations with emerging economies such as India and China and strengthening ever more its relations with the US. Could it be that the two countries are ignoring each other and missing out on potential complementarities? Before Spain’s accession to the European Community (EC), the latter considered Israel and Spain in tandem in the context of a Global Mediterranean Policy, as they both represented semi-industrialised economies in the same league. The demographic and economic structures of the two countries have diverged since then, offering clear prospects of fruitful cooperation, especially in the fields of energy and technology.
- Topic:
- International Security, Geopolitics, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Spain
2050. Eight recommendations for the II National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security
- Author:
- Maria Solanas Cardín
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Elcano Royal Institute
- Abstract:
- The II National Action Plan for the implementation of Resolution 1325, currently being prepared by the Spanish Government, should build on lessons learnt and include specific measures and best practices if it aims to achieve any advancement in the women, peace and security agenda. Nine years after the approval of the I National Action Plan for the implementation of Resolution 1325 –and mainly driven by its participation, as a non-permanent member, in the United Nations Security Council during the 2015-16 biennium–, the Spanish Government has marked the women, peace and security agenda as a priority, undertaking to draft a II National Action Plan. The number of challenges outstanding, almost 16 years after the approval of Resolution 1325, calls for a global commitment that is sustained over time and for actions and measures in field operations supported by sufficient funding (the most serious and persistent impediment for implementation of Resolution 1325). The alliance with local organisations and agents, mainly women’s organisations, has proved to be the most efficient way to promote and ensure a significant participation by women in the prevention of conflicts and in peace-building. Only a Plan based on such premises will effectively contribute towards the implementation of Resolution 1325.
- Topic:
- Development, Gender Issues, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2051. Turkey’s coup attempt
- Author:
- Lauren Baker
- Publication Date:
- 08-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- Late in the evening of July 15, a faction of the Turkish army blocked key bridges into Istanbul and occupied several locations throughout the country. The attempted coup failed before morning, but its consequences will reverberate far into the future. The government’s response was immediate and harsh: mass arrests and a purge of not only the military, but also civil servants, judges, academics, and political opponents. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned cleric Fethullah Gulen as the chief conspirator and demanded his extradition from self-imposed exile in the United States. Meanwhile, some opponents of Erdogan suggest that the government orchestrated the attempt as a “false flag” operation to consolidate power and crackdown on dissidents. Turkey is not new to coups, but looking at previous conflicts and the political science literature on coups can tell us why this failed attempt is unique and what its repercussions will be in Turkey and the broader Middle East. The pieces in POMEPS Briefing 30 offer insightful and timely analysis from top scholars of the region published in the Monkey Cage blog on the Washington Post.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
2052. Iran’s 2016 election
- Author:
- Lauren Baker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- On February 26, 2016, Iran held elections for its Assembly of Experts, the body tasked with choosing the next supreme leader, and the Islamic Consultative Assembly (its parliament or majlis). As the first major round of voting since 2015’s historic Joint Plan of Comprehensive Action nuclear agreement, the world watched the results closely — and Iran’s leaders leveraged this international focus. While many reformist candidates were barred from running, and those who did were censored on state media, new forms of communication and social media aided existing organizing networks for a strong showing for the reformist candidates, most notably in Tehran. Coalitions between moderates and reformists potentially herald a new era of politics in the Islamic Republic, though it has yet to be seen if these changes will translate mean greater democracy. POMEPS Briefing 29 collects a series of reflections from top regional scholars that provide political context and important analysis of these watershed elections
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iran
2053. The Gulf’s Escalating Sectarianism
- Author:
- Lauren Baker
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- On January 2, Saudi Arabia executed 47 men, including prominent cleric and political activist Nimr al-Nimr. This sparked immediate backlash, especially among domestic and global Shiite communities. Unfortunately, such rising sectarian tensions are nothing new in the region. Although the media is quick to highlight the Sunni-Shiite divide, it generally points to this split as the root cause of conflicts. How are we to get beyond this primordialist rhetoric and study the real impacts and causes of sectarianism in the region? POMEPS Briefing 28, “The Gulf’s Escalating Sectarianism,” collects 16 pieces previously published by the Project on Middle East Political Science and the Monkey Cage to provide a more nuanced look of this divisive trend. There is a growing body of scholarship that places sectarianism within the study of comparative politics and international relations, rather than treating sectarian identity as an unchanging, essentialist trait. Authors in this collection demonstrate how political elites use sectarian language to legitimize authoritarian rule, consolidate power, and rally against internal and external foes. What appear on the surface as entrenched confessional divides are often more about political and economic power than religion. Interested readers should also look at the 2013 POMEPS Studies 4 “The Politics of Sectarianism,” much of which remains relevant today. Analysis of individual Gulf states’ domestic and geopolitical maneuvering supports this theoretical framework. In Saudi Arabia, the new leadership is able to refocus attention away from its international and domestic failures by increasing pressure on Shiite dissidents and provoking its main regional rival, Iran. And, in the wake of the nuclear agreement, the increasing Iranian influence gives Saudi Arabia another reason to amp up the sectarian vehemence. Meanwhile in Yemen, the labels of sectarianism fail to tell the whole story, while in Iraq and Syria violence in the name of sectarian identity continues to polarize and entrench both sides. The Arab uprisings challenged the traditional regional powers, and Sunni leaders continue to vie for prominence in this new order. Meanwhile, the increasing use of information technology and social media reinforces existing communities, while further polarizing users and citizens.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Gulf Nations
2054. The Greek Euro Tragedy
- Author:
- John Ryan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- On 4 February 2015, the European Central Bank (ECB) unexpectedly and suddenly cancelled acceptance of Greek bonds as collateral for liquidity funding unless Greece obeyed the Troika agreement. The ECB’s irresponsible and incompetent actions call into question their respect for the Greek government’s attempts to resolve its debt crisis in a sustainable way. The ECB may or may not have good reasons to cut off Greece, depending on your point of view, but it is clear that such a move would be political. A central bank that is supposed to be the lender of last resort and guardian of financial stability would be taking a deliberate and calculated decision to undermine the Greek banking system. The ECB is now seen in some quarters as arrogant, unaccountable and authoritarian.1 This Strategic Update discusses the most recent problems for the Eurozone, namely the Greek crisis and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) lack of democratic accountability which has contributed to considerable difficulties for the stability of the Eurozone.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Greece
2055. ASEAN: In or Out? No Way…Not yet?
- Author:
- Tan Sri Munir Majid
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- While the close British decision to get out of the European Union was made in a referendum a while ago on 23 June, there is still the feeling in the UK: What have we done? Where do we go? How do we get there? Questions that should have been asked at the referendum, rather than after it. But there you are. When raw emotion and shallow argument reign, profound decisions are made without proper reflection or preparation. Since then the question has also been raised whether or not such a thing could occur in ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It won’t but then again it may. First of all, let’s be clear. It is not likely there will ever be such a surplus of democracy in ASEAN, whether among individual member states or as a group, that there could be an ‘In or Out’ referendum like the one which resulted in Brexit.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Affairs, Global Markets, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
2056. Brexit: What Happens Next?
- Author:
- Tim Oliver
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- A British withdrawal from the EU would be a process not an event. This Strategic Update sets out the nine overlapping series of negotiations that would be triggered and the positions the 27 remaining EU countries and the EU’s institutions would take, gathered from a network of researchers across the continent.
- Topic:
- Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Britain and European Union
2057. A EU without the UK: The Geopolitics of a British Exit from the EU
- Author:
- Tim Oliver
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- A vote by the British people to withdraw from the EU – also known as a ‘Brexit’ – will have significant implications for the EU, the ideas and structures of European integration, and European geopolitics. Opinion polls show that a vote to withdraw is a distinct possibility. The EU, the rest of Europe, allies around the world and the UK itself need to prepare for the wider international implications of such a move. This Strategic Update examines how likely a Brexit is and explores what it could mean for the EU, European integration, and Europe’s economics and security.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Britain and European Union
2058. Obama’s Legacy on Israel/ Palestine
- Author:
- Josh Reubner
- Publication Date:
- 08-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- his retrospective assessment argues that despite the arrival in office in 2009 of a president who articulated the case for Palestinian rights more strongly and eloquently than any of his predecessors, U.S. official policy in the Obama years skewed heavily in favor of Israel. While a negotiated two-state resolution of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians continued to be the formal goal of the United States, Israel’s defiant refusal to stop settlement expansion, the administration’s determined actions to perpetuate Israeli impunity in international fora, as well as the U.S. taxpayer’s hefty subsidy of the Israeli military machine all ensured that no progress could be made on that score. The author predicts that with all hopes of a negotiated two-state solution now shattered, Obama’s successor will have to contend with an entirely new paradigm, thanks in no small part to the gathering momentum of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution
- Political Geography:
- America, Israel, and Palestine
2059. The 2016 U.S. Presidential Campaign: Changing Discourse on Palestine
- Author:
- Phyllis Bennis
- Publication Date:
- 08-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- This essay examines the discourse on Palestine/Israel in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, charting the impact of the Palestine rights movement on the domestic U.S. policy debate. Policy analyst, author, and long-time activist Phyllis Bennis notes the sea change within the Democratic Party evident in the unprecedented debate on the issue outside traditionally liberal Zionist boundaries. The final Democratic platform was as pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian as any in history, but the process of getting there was revolutionary in no small part, Bennis argues, due to the grassroots campaign of veteran U.S. senator Bernie Sanders. Bennis also discusses the Republican platform on Israel/Palestine, outlining the positions of the final three Republican contenders. Although she is clear about the current weakness of the broad antiwar movement in the United States, Bennis celebrates its Palestinian rights component and its focus on education and BDS to challenge the general public’s “ignorance” on Israel/ Palestine.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Palestine
2060. Might and Right in World Politics
- Author:
- Dr. Jan (eds) Woischnik and Dr Jans Woischnik
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
- Abstract:
- In the last decade of the 20th century, when the Cold War came to an end, there was a growing understanding that International Law was consolidated as legitimation body for state actions. It was the begin- ning of a new peaceful world order, the world hoped that an old problem of geopolitics could finally be fully addressed by the International Law, a problem which the Athenian General Thucydides observed already more than 2000 years ago, according to which in the realm of the international, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”. In this new world order right was supposed to finally come before might.
- Topic:
- International Law, Political Theory, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus