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2. Anti-Government Demonstrations in Iran: A Long-Term Challenge for the Islamic Republic
- Author:
- Dana Sammy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Iran was rocked by mass demonstrations triggered by the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini — a young Kurdish woman — while in the custody of the Guidance Patrol (also known as the ‘morality police’) for allegedly violating the hijab dress code. Protests over the mandatory hijab rule soon coalesced around a wide range of grievances with the regime, with participants demanding protections for civil, political, and human rights and calling for an end to the Islamic Republic. Although street demonstrations have subsided for the time being, how the protest movement will evolve — and how it will impact the stability of the Islamic Republic — remains an open question. This report explores potential answers to this question by examining notable trends and implications of the wave of demonstrations that unfolded in the country between September and December 2022. It argues that several emerging aspects of the nationwide movement may pose a long-term challenge to the regime. The demonstrations following Amini’s death were not only unique in regard to their geographical spread and longevity, but also in the way they brought together different segments of society with both distinct and overlapping grievances. Moreover, amid a harsh crackdown by Iranian authorities, engagement in violence by demonstrators has trended upward: between mid-September and December 2022, ACLED records the highest number of violent demonstration events for any round of nationwide demonstrations in Iran since the beginning of data collection in 2016. The increased use of Molotov cocktails and the killing of dozens of security personnel are among the most significant trends in demonstration violence observed in the latest round of events. The demonstrations did not reach a critical mass necessary to pose an immediate threat to the survival of the regime. Yet, this latest round in a sequence of increasingly violent demonstrations is indicative of growing resentment in Iranian society against the ruling elites and a willingness to express it forcefully despite severe repression. As the regime refuses to reform, the growing frequency and intensity of demonstrations suggests that the government will find itself in an increasingly unstable domestic position and increasingly isolated in the international arena.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, Women, State Violence, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
3. Institutionalizing Downward Accountability: The Bangladesh Experience
- Author:
- Shaheen Anam
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In this issue briefing, Shaheen Anam, Executive Director at Manusher Jonno Foundation, explores the challenges of institutionalizing downward accountability and assesses how such difficulties are projected in development projects of various sizes. Anam argues that effective bottom-up planning requires expertise of stakeholders, strong political will from above, and most importantly, active participation of the local community. Through a Bangladesh case study, Anam offers a successful example of the civil society taking advantage of social accountability tools to channel its voice and improve the transparency of the authorities.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Government, Accountability, Institutions, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
4. The Number of Countries with Coups d’etats and Other Constitutional Changes in Government is Rising: How should donors stay engaged?
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Renata Dwan, Betty N. Wainaina, and Leah Zamore
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Last week, CIC released a major new joint report with Chatham House on aid to “politically-estranged” settings – countries where donor relations with national authorities are frayed or broken because of unconstitutional changes in government, internationally contested elections, and major sanctions. Development aid to these countries has been suspended or severely curtailed, often because of domestic pressures to disengage, leaving the problem to traditional humanitarian approaches. In this report, CIC and Chatham House argue that development engagement is needed, and outline the ways to do so without legitimizing unconstitutional regimes, in concertation with regional actors. This piece focuses on two major areas: Why should donors care in this current moment? What has been new in our thinking about the major challenges and solutions for how to work in these contexts?
- Topic:
- Government, Constitution, Multilateralism, Coup, and Donors
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
5. How to Destroy an Investigation from the Inside: Ayotzinapa and the Legacies of Impunity
- Author:
- John Gibler
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Is the Mexican government's dubious new evidence part of another “historical truth?”
- Topic:
- Corruption, Government, History, Impunity, Memory, and Extrajudicial Killings
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
6. Big data and national security: A guide for Australian policymakers
- Author:
- Miah Hammond-Errey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Data abundance, digital connectivity, and ubiquitous technology now enable near complete coverage of human lives across the planet, often in real-time. The Covid-19 pandemic, by forcing more interactions online and greater social reliance on technology, has significantly added to the global pool of data. Advances in the scale, application, and commercial uses of data significantly outpace regulation of the big data landscape. Technical and analytical capabilities that are essential for the functioning of societies are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of commercial entities. The implications of big data for surveillance, real or potential interference, and kinetic war are underappreciated in policy and public discussions. Identifying and protecting the uses of critical data should be a national security priority for government on par with safeguarding critical digital infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Government, National Security, Science and Technology, Surveillance, and Data
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
7. Foresight and its application in ministries of foreign affairs
- Author:
- Javier Ignacio Santander
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- Based on previous research regarding foresight capabilities of ministries of foreign affairs, this work focuses on the modern concept of foresight and of its application to foreign relations. Specifically, it aims to provide a summary of similiarities observed in the way in which foreign affairs ministries have developed foresight capacity.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8. Why the Opposition Win in Barinas, Venezuela Matters
- Author:
- Ociel Alí López
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The victory of opposition candidate Sergio Garrido in the governorship race in the state of Barinas on January 9 changes the symbolic map of Venezuela’s internal diatribe. The result barely affects the country’s political-territorial map; the governing party swept the regional elections on November 21 with 19 of 23 governorships and 210 of 335 mayoralties. However, it does mark a tremendous change in the sensibility with which the opposition and the government have participated in a political environment that is, if you will, hospitable—for the first time in many years.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Opposition
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
9. Political Prisoners to Ortega’s Narrative
- Author:
- José Luis Rocha
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In Nicaragua, the story of a government fighting against the U.S. capitalist empire exposes deep contradictions.
- Topic:
- Government, Prisons/Penal Systems, Domestic Politics, Political Prisoners, Empire, and Daniel Ortega
- Political Geography:
- Central America, Nicaragua, and United States of America
10. Peru: The Broken Dream of Transformative Government?
- Author:
- Alejandra Dinegro Martínez
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Though Pedro Castillo’s victory initially seemed like a glimmer of hope, the reality of the past eight months has been disappointing.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- South America and Peru
11. Mexico’s Military Knew Ayotzinapa 43 Were Kidnapped, Then Covered It Up
- Author:
- Ñaní Pinto
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Following a new report, families of the 43 students criticized the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador for failing to follow through on promises to finally solve the case.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Crime, Government, Kidnapping, and Military
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
12. La Encrucijada’s Dilemma: Greenwashing Oil Palm in Chiapas
- Author:
- Santiago Navarro F. and Aldo Santiago
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- On Mexico’s Pacific coast, the government and businesses are trying to legalize a huge area of illegally-cultivated oil palm by reducing the size of an environmental reserve.
- Topic:
- Environment, Government, Natural Resources, Business, Greenwashing, and Palm Oil
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
13. Will Popular Power Survive?
- Author:
- María Pilar García-Guadilla and Ulises Castro
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Popular power was a cornerstone of the Bolivarian Revolution. Facing co-optation, crisis, and decline, its future remains in question.
- Topic:
- Government, Social Movement, Community, Nicholas Maduro, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
14. HOW DO GOVERNMENTS DECIDE WHICH GROUPS ARE “TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS”?
- Author:
- Brian J. Phillips and Mirna El Masri
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- US Senator Ted Cruz recently called for Yemen’s Houthis to be added to the Foreign Terrorist Organization list—again. The Iran-backed Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, were designated as terrorists by the Trump administration on January 19, 2021, criminalizing support of the group, but the designation was removed by the Biden administration the following month. Around the world, national terrorist group lists vary considerably, and change over time. Last fall, the UK government announced it would add Hamas to its terrorist list. Other countries, such as the United States, have long designated Hamas a terrorist group, while others, like Russia, have not. Why do some organizations end up on countries’ terrorist group lists? Why are some terrorist lists different than others?
- Topic:
- Government, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Conflict, and Islamism
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
15. Houthis at the Gates of Marib – The Yemen Review, January-February 2021
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Conflict, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
16. Nepal’s Supreme Court Overturned PM K.P. Oli’s Decision to Dissolve Parliament
- Author:
- Pradip Pariyar
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Change has dawned upon Nepal following the declaration of the 2015 Constitution, yet the future of its government seems bleak. Pradip Pariyar, Executive Chairperson of Samata Foundation, states that the old game of parliamentary politics is being revived in Nepal through a series of questionable events that unfolded in the Nepalese parliament over the past few months. Prime Minister K.P. Oli’s controversial recommendation to dissolve the House of Representatives was followed by strong backlash from both his faction and rival factions. Amidst the two months of uncertainty following the dissolution of the parliament, Nepali people brought their dissatisfaction to the streets, protesting against the decision. While the Supreme Court ultimately decided against the dissolution, deeming it unconstitutional, it was revealed that there was internal support for Oli’s contentious decision, including backing from Chief Justice Cholendra. Despite the expectation that Oli would resign from the post due to the trouble he brought upon the government as well as his limited capacity to handle national matters amidst the pandemic, Oli remains in power today.
- Topic:
- Government, Oil, Democracy, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Nepal
17. Populism and the Pandemic in Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Paul D. Kenny
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Southeast Asian countries that are within close proximity to China were immediately affected by the spread of COVID-19 virus. Paul D. Kenny, Professor at the Australian Catholic University discusses the role of populism in public health responses to the virus and the reciprocal effect of the pandemic on the fate of populists in the region focusing on the Philippines and Indonesian cases. He argues that while the two governments took different responses to the pandemic crisis, both measures led to similar results in terms of how it affected support for the government. While President Duterte responded aggressively towards the pandemic with the issuance of Proclamation 922, President Jokowi’s response was substantially less coercive than that of Duterte’s. Professor Kenny states that both countries, in their current state, have seen similar results — support for both presidents in their respective countries remain considerably high. Nonetheless, the author adds that the continuing decline in Philippines’ economy may hamper his efforts in securing presidency.
- Topic:
- Government, Economy, Populism, Public Health, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia
18. Turks and Caicos Islands House of Assembly Elections: Technical Observation and Assessment Report
- Author:
- Anthony Banbury
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems
- Abstract:
- The Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) held elections for the House of Assembly on February 19, 2021. At the invitation of the TCI governor and funded by the UK government, an independent team of elections experts from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) conducted an in-person technical observation and assessment. The IFES mission employed a modified version of IFES’ Technical Election Assessment Methodology, which allows for a broader assessment of the electoral process and context.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Voting, Election Observation, and Political Participation
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, North America, and Turks and Caicos Islands
19. China: Rise or Demise?
- Author:
- John Mueller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- China, even if it rises, does not present much of a security threat to the United States. Policymakers increasingly view China’s rapidly growing wealth as a threat. China currently ranks second, or perhaps even first, in the world in gross domestic product (although 78th in per capita GDP), and the fear is that China will acquire military prowess commensurate with its wealth and feel impelled to carry out undesirable military adventures. However, even if it continues to rise, China does not present much of a security threat to the United States. China does not harbor Hitler‐style ambitions of extensive conquest, and the Chinese government depends on the world economy for development and the consequent acquiescence of the Chinese people. Armed conflict would be extremely—even overwhelmingly—costly to the country and, in particular, to the regime in charge. Indeed, there is a danger of making China into a threat by treating it as such and by engaging in so‐called balancing efforts against it. Rather than rising to anything that could be conceived to be “dominance,” China could decline into substantial economic stagnation. It faces many problems, including endemic (and perhaps intractable) corruption, environmental devastation, slowing growth, a rapidly aging population, enormous overproduction, increasing debt, and restive minorities in its west and in Hong Kong. At a time when it should be liberalizing its economy, Xi Jinping’s China increasingly restricts speech and privileges control by the antiquated and kleptocratic Communist Party over economic growth. And entrenched elites are well placed to block reform. That said, China’s standard of living is now the highest in its history, and it’s very easy to envision conditions that are a great deal worse than life under a stable, if increasingly authoritarian, kleptocracy. As a result, the Chinese people may be willing to ride with, and ride out, economic stagnation should that come about—although this might be accompanied by increasing dismay and disgruntlement. In either case—rise or demise—there is little the United States or other countries can or should do to affect China’s economically foolish authoritarian drive except to issue declarations of disapproval and to deal more warily. As former ambassador Chas Freeman puts it, “There is no military answer to a grand strategy built on a non‐violent expansion of commerce and navigation.” And Chinese leaders have plenty of problems to consume their attention. They scarcely need war or foreign military adventurism to enhance the mix. The problem is not so much that China is a threat but that it is deeply insecure. Policies of threat, balance, sanction, boycott, and critique are more likely to reinforce that condition than change it. The alternative is to wait, and to profit from China’s economic size to the degree possible, until someday China feels secure enough to reform itself.
- Topic:
- Government, GDP, Geopolitics, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
20. The Aftermath of Demonstrations: The reasons behind the conflict about Tunisian cabinet reshuffle
- Author:
- Karam Saeed
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On January 27, 2021, the political climate in Tunisia was charged up, following the parliament’s approval on a cabinet reshuffle on January 26, supported by 144 parliamentarians. This included new ministers joining the government of ‘Hichem Mechichi’, which had been formed on August 24, 2020. The proposed amendments intensified the political crisis in the country, against the backdrop of President Kais Saied’s announcement of his rejection of the cabinet reshuffle under the claims of the potential corruption of some ministers. Yet, Mechici resorted to the parliamentary majority led by Al-Nahda movement to gain the confidence of the parliament. Despite the lapse of a week since the new reshuffle won the confidence of the Parliament, the President rejected summoning the new ministers to take the constitutional oath, which paves the way for more complications in the Tunisian scene. Furthermore, the Parliament's approval of the amendments may fuel a constitutional struggle between the Prime Minister and the President.
- Topic:
- Government, Conflict, and Demonstrations
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
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