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2. Planetary Health: Managing Competing Tensions
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- After more than two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, wars present a stark reminder of how difficult it is to stay committed to environmental causes when crises arise.
- Topic:
- Environment, Health, International Cooperation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Global Food Insecurity – Food Import: Reducing ASEAN’s Dependency
- Author:
- Paul Teng
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The current food insecurity caused by the three Cs — COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and conflicts — has highlighted the reliance of many ASEAN states on imported staple food and feed. ASEAN needs to seriously re-examine its priorities to reduce import dependency.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
4. Planetary health: An alternative framework for disaster governance in ASEAN?
- Author:
- S. Nanthini and Lina Gong
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the search for a better way of managing human activities and their environmental impact thereby zeroing in on the specific actions needed to maintain a balance for Planet Earth’s sustainability.
- Topic:
- Environment, Health, International Cooperation, Governance, Sustainability, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
5. Next Steps for Disaster Resilience in ASEAN
- Author:
- Alistair D B Cook and Christopher Chen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The challenges posed in responding to natural hazards during the global COVID-19 pandemic were felt across Southeast Asia. As travel restrictions and supply chain disruptions ease up, it is time to revaluate disaster management and not simply revert to old ways.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Resilience, COVID-19, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
6. Unrest in French Overseas Territories and Corsica: Analysis of Violent Demonstration Trends From 2020 to Early 2022
- Author:
- Adam Miller, Timothy Lay, and Niki Papadogiannaki
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 24 April 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron secured re-election, defeating far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. Despite his re-election to the presidency, dissatisfaction with Macron has been reflected by his relatively poor performance in both the presidential and parliamentary elections, with notable swings to both the political far-right and hard left (France24, 20 June 2022). During the presidential election, Macron lost electoral support in several regions of France and the overseas territories, with Le Pen comfortably outperforming Macron in Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, Mayotte, and Réunion (Guardian, 25 April 2022). Moreover, Macron’s Ensemble coalition lost its absolute majority in parliament during legislative elections on 12 and 19 June. Ensemble lost seats to the New Ecologic and Social People’s Union (NUPES), the left-wing coalition formed by hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (Euronews, 20 June 2022). While National Rally did not win any parliamentary seats in the territories, several Macron-supporting incumbent politicians lost their seats to NUPES or regionalist candidates (Le Monde, 19 June 2022). Most significantly, Secretary of State for the Sea Justine Benin lost her parliamentary seat in Guadeloupe to NUPES-supported Christian Baptiste (20 Minutes, 19 June 2022). These political developments follow more than a year of heightened levels of demonstration activity across mainland France, overseas territories, and Corsica. Driven by opposition to coronavirus restrictions, demonstrations across mainland France,1 overseas territories,2 and Corsica surged throughout 2021, with demonstration levels remaining elevated ahead of the presidential election in April. Although demonstrations spiked throughout French territory, analysis of this trend sheds light on complex regional dynamics. Most notably, since the beginning of 2020,3 demonstrations have been far more likely to involve violent activity, destructive activity, and/or barricades4 in French overseas territories and Corsica compared to mainland France. While violent demonstration levels have increased across the board, root issues vary. In Corsica, the violent death of a Corsican prisoner renewed calls for greater autonomy, while in the Americas, coronavirus restrictions rekindled discontent rooted in systemic inequality. Violent demonstration activity in the territories and Corsica reflects an underlying disconnect with the government in Paris. This report examines the regional trends that have emerged out of increased demonstration activity in mainland France, the overseas territories, and Corsica.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, COVID-19, and Demonstrations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Corsica, and French Overseas Territories
7. Religious Repression and Disorder Snapshots: 2020- 2021
- Author:
- Luca Nevola
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- ACLED-Religion’s incorporation of historical back-coding data for 2020 adds over 6,000 events across the seven countries covered by the pilot project: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, and Yemen. The new data include nearly 2,400 harassment events, nearly 700 demonstration events, over 2,150 political violence events, and over 750 strategic developments. The back-coding release expands ACLED-Religion’s full dataset to nearly 13,000 total events from the beginning of 2020 to the present. This report identifies key trends in religious disorder and repression in the seven countries covered by ACLED-Religion across 2020 and 2021. The report is organized around two sections. The first section examines overall patterns of repression and disorder, showing how macro-trends are driven by surges of events in specific countries. It also provides a focus on protest events and targets of religious repression. The second section explores potential triggers of religious repression, addressing the role of COVID-19 protocols and religious commemorations.
- Topic:
- Religion, Repression, Data, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
8. North Korea’s Covid-19 Outbreak: An Opening for Engagement?
- Author:
- Lorenzo Mariani and Leonardo Bruni
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In January 2020, in response to the novel coronavirus, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK; North Korea) closed its borders and for the next two years claimed it had not experienced a single case of Covid-19. However, on 12 May 2022, North Korea disclosed a severe domestic outbreak and in the following weeks began reporting millions of cases of “fevers” and several deaths.[1] Pyongyang’s admission was initially interpreted as a veiled request for international assistance as the country is particularly vulnerable due to its zero per cent vaccination rate, inadequate healthcare system and chronic food insecurity. However, as with previous attempts during the height of the pandemic, offers of aid and vaccines from the Republic of Korea (ROK; South Korea), the US, international organisations (IOs) and multilateral initiatives like COVAX received no response; most likely due to suspicion of the aid being politicised.[2]
- Topic:
- Health, Foreign Aid, European Union, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
9. The Pandemic Exposes and Exacerbates Existing Problems of Inequality and Polarization
- Author:
- Joshua Kurlantzick
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- During the COVID-19 pandemic, while some democracies (such as Canada and Australia) have been able to respond effectively, the five large democracies of the United States, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines have suffered severe effects on public health. In this commentary, Joshua Kurlantzick, a Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains how social and economic inequalities in these countries are the cause of their ineffective responses to the pandemic. He then points out how populist politicians in these countries have exacerbated inequality during the pandemic with their rhetoric and policy. The author then argues that despite political, economic, and social problems in these countries, leaders have an opportunity to alleviate inequality through major democratizing reforms, as there is a public sentiment of wanting to work together to overcome the pandemic.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Inequality, Populism, Public Health, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, India, Brazil, Philippines, and United Nations
10. Lessons from the T20: Five Priorities for Italian Infrastructure Investment
- Author:
- Fulvio Bersanetti, Nicola Bilotta, Raffaele Della Croce, Valeria Lauria, and Nicolò Russo Perez
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- As states and societies continue to struggle with the pandemic, a fundamental element of the post-Covid recovery will be the capacity to revive both public and private investments in infrastructure, thereby boosting growth and employment. Differently than previous crises, reorienting infrastructure investment to respond to the new social and environmental needs will also be needed, starting with health and poverty reduction, as well as climate change and the digitalisation drive. Italy is no exception. Under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) promoted by the European Union, Italy will receive 191 billion euro in which infrastructure investments will play a fundamental role. To unlock its full economic potential and pursue a successful post-Covid recovery, Italy should embrace five key priorities for infrastructure investment.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Investment, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
11. The Rise and Fall of Barrio Adentro
- Author:
- Amy Cooper and Oscar Feo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- With Hugo Chávez’s celebrated health care project progressively in ruins, the pandemic underlines the need to rebuild.
- Topic:
- Health Care Policy, Public Health, COVID-19, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
12. The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the DPRK-China Economic Ties and their Impact on the Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- Eun-lee Joung
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In normal economies, currencies weaken in times of difficulty, but something counter-intuitive happens in North Korea. Eun-lee Joung, a research fellow at Korea Institute for National Unification claims that the value of the North Korean won appreciated, and the market prices were remarkably stable although North Korea’s economy suffered its biggest contraction during the pandemic situation. Dr. Joung states that the partial lockdown of the border between North Korea and China, and North Korea’s various changes to deal with the sanctions including the substitution of imported goods with domestic goods may have contributed to the outcome. Meanwhile, she mentions that intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition and the possibility of a prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine could increase North Korea’s economic reliance on China and Russia which will impede the re-establishing relations between the two Koreas. However, as the cooperation between North Korea and China in tourism has increased up before the COVID-19 outbreak, Dr. Joung highlights that Pyongyang’s tourism industry is likely to expand, which is expected to stimulate non-governmental exchange and induce North Korea toward openness.
- Topic:
- Economy, Currency, COVID-19, and Unification
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
13. Planetary Health: A More Resilient World Post-COVID-19?
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The care of nature offers holistic solutions to a wide range of issues that include climate change and the pandemic. The emerging concept of planetary health has the potential to contribute and, if widely adopted, may lead to a more resilient world post-COVID-19.
- Topic:
- Public Health, Pandemic, Resilience, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
14. What the Quad Is, Is Not, and Should Not Be
- Author:
- Daniel Depetris
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Since its establishment in 2007, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD or Quad) has transformed into a multilateral forum to enhance military coordination in the Indo-Pacific among the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia and to address issues of mutual concern—particularly the rise of China. The U.S. has pushed for this transformation. Quad members speak of the group as a forum for issues in the Indo-Pacific ranging from COVID-19 and climate change to emerging technologies. But China, Asia’s biggest power, is integral to addressing each issue. In early 2021, the group’s leaders signed a joint statement reiterating the importance of a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific—a reference to what all four members regard as China’s illegitimate claims in the South and East China Seas. Indo-Pacific Quad members also have disputes with China: India over its shared border with China; Japan over China’s sovereignty claims over the Senkaku islands; and Australia over worsening ties, including onerous trade restrictions and tariffs.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, COVID-19, and Quad Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, India, Australia, and United States of America
15. ACLED 2020: The Year in Review
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- One year since the official start of the pandemic in March 2020, COVID-19 has killed more than two million people and brought at least half the earth’s population under lockdown (New York Times, 11 March 2021; New York Times, 3 April 2020). The health crisis has had major impacts on worldwide conflict and disorder patterns, contributing to an overall decrease in political violence levels last year even as it fueled an increase in demonstration activity. And while the pandemic’s effects have been global in scale, they have not been felt equally across conflict contexts: although violence declined on the aggregate level, it rose in nearly half the world’s countries. As vaccine distribution accelerates and countries relax public health restrictions, conflict levels are expected to increase throughout 2021(for more, see ACLED’s special report: Ten Conflicts to Worry About in 2021). Last year, ACLED expanded data collection to Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia, the United States, and all of Europe, achieving near global coverage. Our 2020 annual report reviews the past 12 months of data on political violence and demonstration activity around the world.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Demonstrations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16. A Year of COVID-19
- Author:
- Roudabeh Kishi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- March 2021 marks the first anniversary of the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). One year on, this report explores ACLED’s special coverage of the pandemic’s impact on political violence and protest trends around the world – analyzing changes in demonstration activity, state repression, mob attacks, overall rates of armed conflict, and more through the COVID-19 Disorder Tracker.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Conflict, COVID-19, and Demonstrations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17. A National Emergency: How COVID-19 is Fueling Unrest in the US
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In March 2020, the Trump administration declared the novel coronavirus pandemic a national emergency in the United States. Although the US is home to just 4% of the world’s population, it now accounts for a quarter of all confirmed COVID-19 cases and a fifth of the death toll (New York Times, 2021). A year on, more than half a million people have died of COVID-19 across the country (CDC, 2021), and the new Biden administration has officially extended the national emergency beyond its March 2021 expiration date (CNBC, 25 February 2021). The health crisis has exacerbated existing inequalities and political faultlines in the US, contributing to a surge of unrest throughout the country. New analysis of ACLED data — now extended to the beginning of 2020 — reveals the full scope of the pandemic’s impact on American protest patterns for the first time.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Pandemic, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
18. Naxal-Maoist Insurgency Trends in India During the Coronavirus Pandemic
- Author:
- Aastha Kaul
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- As countries continue to contend with the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become clear that its impact extends far beyond public health and safety, with the ability to shape political behavior and conflict. The interplay between disease and disorder is perhaps most visible in India, which has been one of the nations worst affected by the coronavirus. Following the onset of the pandemic, ACLED records an escalation of conflict in Jammu & Kashmir (for more see this spotlight infographic from ACLED’s COVID-19 Disorder Tracker) as well as a new wave of political unrest in the northeast (for more see this ACLED report on political violence in northeast India). In contrast, ACLED data show a decline in events in 2020 related to the Naxal-Maoist insurgency, one of India’s oldest post-independence conflicts. The restrictions surrounding the coronavirus pandemic impacted the Naxal-Maoist insurgency in two significant ways. First, the lockdown worsened already strained supply chains, preventing cadres from accessing vital resources such as rations and weaponry. Second, dwindling supplies subsequently affected operational capacity as insurgents were unable to effectively carry out their annual tactical counter-offensive campaign (TCOC). The combination of these factors has led to an overall decline of Naxal-Maoist activity in 2020, compared to the year prior. A comparative analysis of ACLED data for 2019 and 2020 reveals these trends and offer insights into the changing nature of the conflict.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Insurgency, Conflict, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
19. A Review of the Performance of the 2021 First Semester Budget
- Author:
- Mbewe Kalikeka
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Zambia’s 2021 National Budget is being executed under the theme, “Stimulate Economic Recovery and Build Resilience to Safeguard Livelihoods and Protect the Vulnerable.” During the budget planning process the COVID-19 pandemic took a heavy toll on economic activity that led the economy to contract by 3% in 2020. This is on the back of the economy having already being vulnerable to external shocks due to its structural weaknesses. Therefore, in line with aspirations to stimulate economic recovery, the 2021 National Budget set the growth target at 1.8%, underscoring a strong desire to crutch the economy to its recovery.
- Topic:
- Budget, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
20. Paper Fairy Tales VS Steel Brotherhood – Media Portrayals of Serbia’s Alliances in the Age of Pandemic
- Author:
- Luka Steric and Maja Bjelos
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- BCSP researchers Maja Bjeloš and Luka Šterić analyzed how media in Serbia reported about Chinese, Russian and EU help during the pandemics. Because the pandemic was used as a framework for an excessive pro-Chinese campaign, the research examines how pro-Chinese narratives in mainstream media during the pandemic were used to position China, displacing Russia as Serbia’s main non-Western partner, while simultaneously propelling the anti-EU narrative of incompetence and hypocrisy. The analysis was carried out for the period between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2021 and focused on two key events – media coverage of the first shipments of medical supplies to Serbia and media reporting of the supply of vaccines. Media monitoring included data collection using social listening software from the online portals of most-watched televisions (TV Happy, TV Prva), the most visited news portals (Blic, Kurir, Politika, B92 and Nova.rs), and the most circulated online portals of tabloids (Informer and Alo). Chinese medical aid to Serbia during the COVID-19 pandemic attracted unprecedented foreign media attention and much speculation about a shift in Serbia’s foreign policy. Many foreign and domestic policy experts have interpreted the enthusiastic acceptance of Chinese aid by Serbian politicians as a departure from Serbia’s proclaimed accession to the European Union. Since Serbia did not greet Russian assistance with the same enthusiasm, this sparked speculation that Serbia is replacing Russia with China as its preferred eastern partner. In Serbian media, the narrative of a ‘brotherhood’ has long been reserved for describing relations between Serbia and Russia. Serbia’s ruling political elite voluntarily promoted President Putin and Russia in the mainstream media to increase political support among pro-Russian votes and at the same time exaggerating Russia’s influence in Serbia as a bargaining chip with the West over its political goals. Due to the silent crisis of relations with Moscow, Belgrade officials saw the partnership with China as a stronger card to play ahead of the 2020 elections to convince voters that the government was capable of dealing with the COVID-19 crisis, as well as acquiring a new ally in the East to leverage in the West. Consequently, China emerged as a ‘savior of Serbs in trouble’ during the pandemic overshadowing roles of both Russia and the EU.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Media, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Serbia