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62. Bodies on Fire: Toloposungo’s Trans-Marika Abolitionist Performance
- Author:
- Cecilia Azar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In Colombia, a trans-marika vogue collective takes to the streets to denounce state violence and call for police abolition.
- Topic:
- Culture, State Violence, Transgender, and Abolitionism
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
63. Anti-Racist Transfeminism: Against Adjustment and the Plundering of Rights
- Author:
- Chana Mamani
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the face of discriminatory narratives and laws in Argentina, activists advocate for anti-racist, transfeminist initiatives during this year’s International Women’s Day.
- Topic:
- Feminism, Racism, Activism, and Transfeminism
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
64. “Carnival is Always Political”: Keeping Protest Alive in Trinidad
- Author:
- Khalea Robertson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Designer Robert Young discusses the political activism woven into the costumes of his band, Vulgar Fraction, which participates annually in Trinidad and Tobago’s Carnival celebrations.
- Topic:
- Politics, Protests, Interview, and Carnival
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Caribbean, and Trinidad and Tobago
65. Brazil’s Student Movement Resists the Far Right, at Home and Abroad
- Author:
- Alice Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the days after the Trump inauguration, Brazilian students gathered at the largest student congress in Latin America to debate the future of left resistance.
- Topic:
- Donald Trump, Leftist Politics, Students, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Latin America
66. Trump’s Latin America Policy: Inconsistencies and Vacillations
- Author:
- Steve Ellner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration’s volatility on foreign policy reveals internal divisions within Trumpism. But when threats and populism lose their momentum, the anti-communist hawks may get their way.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
67. The U.S. War on Migrants Gets Help from El Salvador
- Author:
- Timothy O'Farrell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- El Salvador's offer to house deportees and U.S. citizens in its infamous prisons – for profit – signals a new and troubling escalation in the criminalization of migration.
- Topic:
- Migration, Prisons/Penal Systems, Donald Trump, Deportation, and Criminalization
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, El Salvador, and United States of America
68. Rio’s Samba Parade Spotlights Trans Rights
- Author:
- Constance Malleret
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Tuiuiti samba school uplifts trans identities and highlights the political dimensions of Brazil’s Carnival celebrations.
- Topic:
- Politics, Dance, Transgender, and Carnival
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
69. Forbidden African Legacies in the Dominican Republic
- Author:
- Patricia Rodríguez
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Despite the ongoing criminalization and racist persecution of African tradition, from the criminalization of Vodou to restrictions against Gagá, Afro-Dominican culture persists.
- Topic:
- Culture, Racism, Tradition, Criminalization, and Vodou
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Latin America, and Dominican Republic
70. South Sudan’s peace process stagnates as violence grips Greater Upper Nile region
- Author:
- Stefan Bakumenko
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In September 2024, South Sudan’s government postponed elections until 2026.1 This and other violations of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) reinforce the country’s deep divisions and continued, widespread violence.2 After a devastating civil war (2013-2018), politicians, generals, and communities have lacked a unifying identity or incentive and have focused on shoring up their political power, undermining their rivals, and diversifying their economic holdings. As South Sudan’s oil fields dry up, wealth and sustenance are carved out wherever they can be found, often violently.3 The central government in Juba deprives national institutions of funding, neither state nor rebel forces are committed to integrating into a unified military, and state officials at all levels exploit their positions to fund expensive lifestyles and large patronage networks.4 Politicians have long plundered South Sudan’s main source of wealth, its state-owned oil company, Nilepet, to fuel their wars and wealth, and the country remains economically destitute.5 Across South Sudan, violence has become more geographically dispersed as armed groups have fractured. Between 1 January 2013 and the signing of R-ARCSS on 12 September 2018, there were conflict events in 718 distinct locations, compared to 1,720 between 13 September 2018 and 17 January 2025 (see maps below). Given these realities, the peace process could hardly address South Sudan’s myriad, local-level contests over borders, resources, and political positions.6
- Topic:
- Elections, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Peace Process
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
71. Q&A: What happened in the coastal region of Syria last week?
- Author:
- Muaz Al Abdullah
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 6 March, a group of armed supporters of former President Bashar al-Assad ambushed a group of security forces in Beit Ana village in the Lattakia countryside, killing and injuring several service members. Following the attack, the gunmen targeted an ambulance that tried to evacuate those who were killed and injured. This triggered a large-scale response by the security forces inside Beit Ana that included artillery shelling and helicopter strikes. Later that same day, Assad loyalists launched coordinated attacks across Lattakia and Tartus governorates to restore control over the main junctions that link the two provinces. This sparked a cycle of violence that included extrajudicial killings of people in the Alawite community by regime forces. At least 57 distinct locations in Lattakia, Hama, Homs, and Tartus governorates were the site of violence over four days (see map below).
- Topic:
- Security, Extrajudicial Killings, Armed Conflict, and Alawites
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
72. India — Expert Comment: Kashmir attack stokes tensions along the India-Pakistan Line of Control
- Author:
- Pearl Pandya
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 22 April, separatist militants fired at tourists in the resort town of Pahalgam in the Kashmir Valley, killing at least 26, including one foreign national. This was the deadliest attack on civilians in nearly two decades, and a rare attack against tourists, who have thus far been largely spared from separatist violence.1 Local reports attributed the attack to The Resistance Front (TRF), believed to be an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, an Islamist separatist group.2 While the group has focused its activities against Indian security forces, ACLED data show the TRF’s involvement in at least 21 attacks targeting civilians in Kashmir since the group’s founding in 2019. Similar to Tuesday’s attack, non-Kashmiris and Hindus have borne the brunt of the TRF’s violence.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Violence, Separatism, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir
73. Expert Comment: The possibility of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea
- Author:
- Clionadh Raleigh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- ACLED’s CEO, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, said: “The lines of this potential conflict are too fragmented, and there is more smoke than fire. The prevailing idea seems to be a rising contest between Eritrea and Ethiopia in and over Tigray, which the Ethiopia National Defense Force (ENDF) withdrew from in February. The ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) party is incredibly and dangerously fragmented, and the non-ruling fragment is making a lot of noise. Although the faction has never admitted it, much is being made about their possible opportunistic alliances with the (former and current enemy) Eritrean government on one hand and fragments of the (former and current enemy) Amhara nationalist militias — Fano — on the other hand. So who would fight whom over what is as confusing and unlikely in Tigray as it is outside of the region.”
- Topic:
- Armed Conflict, Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), and Ethiopia National Defense Force (ENDF)
- Political Geography:
- Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Africa
74. Philippines — Expert Comment: Drug war killings continue in the Philippines as former president Rodrigo Duterte faces ICC warrant over anti-drugs crackdown
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In the weeks that followed the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte on 11 March, nationwide protests against and in support of him broke out in the Philippines. ACLED data show nearly 60 pro-Duterte and eight anti-Duterte rallies in the Philippines in March. The largest protest took place in Davao City, Duterte’s stronghold, where supporters condemned Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. for allowing the arrest.1 In contrast, the demonstrations in support of the ICC’s actions were led by the families of drug victims. Meanwhile, Filipinos living overseas gathered in The Hague to support Duterte and ask for his repatriation.
- Topic:
- War on Drugs, Extrajudicial Killings, International Criminal Court (ICC), and Rodrigo Duterte
- Political Geography:
- Philippines and Asia-Pacific
75. Iron Wall or iron fist? Palestinian militancy and Israel’s campaign to reshape the northern West Bank
- Author:
- Ameneh Mehvar and Nasser Khdour
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The largest forced displacement of Palestinians in the West Bank since 1967 has taken place in the first months of 2025, according to the United Nations:1 Over 40,000 Palestinians have been displaced, and the Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nur al-Shams camps are nearly emptied. This occurred as part of an operation launched on 21 January 2025 called Iron Wall — the largest Israel Defense Forces (IDF) military operation in the West Bank in decades — which initially targeted refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarm before expanding to other areas, including Tubas and Nablus. The operation was launched shortly after the ceasefire in Gaza went into effect (see graph below), when Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, announced that the government had decided to add security in the West Bank as an official war goal.2 Israeli officials allege that militancy in the West Bank is part of a multi-pronged campaign orchestrated by Iran against Israel,3 and that it is necessary to curb the growing militant presence in the north, citing both the intensity of the fighting and the number of attacks originating from the area — some targeting Israel — as justification for the operation.4 However, the UN and other human rights organizations have criticized Israel’s heavy-handed approach in Operation Iron Wall, stating that its use of force is more suited to war than policing.5
- Topic:
- Settler Colonialism, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), 2023 Gaza War, Forced Displacement, and Militancy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank
76. Q&A | Disbanding the PKK: A turning point in Turkey’s longest war?
- Author:
- Nancy Ezzeddine
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 12 May 2025, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) officially announced its decision to disband and end its armed struggle. Designated a terrorist organization by Turkey and several of its allies, the group has waged a decades-long insurgency for Kurdish autonomy and rights. This announcement followed a unilateral ceasefire declared on 1 March, after the PKK’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, issued a call for the group to disarm. The PKK has previously made commitments to peace, but last week’s announcement is unprecedented. In this Q&A, ACLED Middle East Analyst Nancy Ezzeddine explains how this development compares to previous efforts, what motivates each side, and whether it marks the start of a sustainable peace process.
- Topic:
- Insurgency, Kurds, PKK, and Peace Process
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
77. Trapped in debt: China’s role in Laos’ economic crisis
- Author:
- Keith Barney, Roland Rajah, and Mariza Cooray
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Laos is trapped in a severe debt crisis with no resolution in sight, threatening a decade of economic and social malaise. Recent global shocks were key triggers. Yet a crisis was almost inevitable, driven by poor planning and over-investment in the domestic energy sector, financed mostly by Chinese loans and exacerbated by broader fiscal and governance problems. Exiting the crisis will require China to provide substantial debt relief. However, the politics appear unfavourable, as neither side wants to admit failure and accept the consequences. Whether by design or neglect, China has created a debt trap in Laos. The crisis illustrates some of the most troubling pathologies of Chinese lending under the Belt and Road Initiative, and its unwillingness to provide sufficient debt relief, despite the clear-cut need.
- Topic:
- Debt, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Economic Crisis, and Energy Sector
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Laos
78. Hedging bets: Southeast Asia’s approach to China’s aid
- Author:
- Alexandre Dayant and Grace Stanhope
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Southeast Asian states with acute development needs and constrained access to development financing — Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar — are the most reliant on China. By contrast, lower-middle income countries with more diversified foreign relations — the Philippines and Vietnam — have become far more restrained in accepting Chinese largesse over the last decade. Upper-middle income countries with only moderate development needs — Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand — appear to be playing the field of development partners the most opportunistically and politically. Amid weakening demand for Chinese development financing in Southeast Asia, Beijing is recalibrating its offering, transitioning to fewer, smaller, and more targeted projects. In 2022, China implemented $3 billion in development financing in the region, a sharp drop from more than $9 billion in 2015. However, Southeast Asia’s success in reshaping their development ties with China could be undone if Western cuts to development budgets lead to a drastic reduction in financing to the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, and Economic Development
- Political Geography:
- China, Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia, Southeast Asia, Laos, and Myanmar
79. The future of Indonesia’s green industrial policy
- Author:
- Robert Walker and Hilman Palaon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Indonesia now supplies more than half of the world’s nickel. Under its green industrial policy, it has also become a leading destination for foreign investment in critical minerals, electric vehicles (EVs), and the battery supply chain. While this strategy has offered some concentrated economic gains, rapid industry expansion has also been costly. Nickel processing has had damaging environmental, labour, and governance impacts, and has increased reliance on Chinese investment, technology, and demand, which presents vulnerabilities. Indonesia can strengthen its industrial policy by improving environmental and labour standards in the nickel industry, fostering a more competitive and export-oriented EV industry, and diversifying trade and investment partners.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Industry, Green Economy, Nickel, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia
80. Lessons from West Germany's Cold War experience
- Author:
- Paul Williams
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- The Russian aggression against Ukraine is now more than three years old. A new US administration is implementing a radical approach to securing a ceasefire and appears poised to limit direct military assistance to Ukraine. Consequently, Europe now recognizes that it must approach this war in a decidedly different manner than might have been presumed only a few months ago. The past may offer hints to a path forward for Ukraine to survive and ultimately prevail against Russia. While the imminent threat of war hung over Europe during the Cold War, West Germany lived under the constant threat of Soviet aggression. Yet, through economic revival, strategic military growth and partnerships, and careful political maneuvering, West Germany not only outlasted its aggressor but laid the groundwork for long-term stability and prosperity. West Germany's experience during the Cold War offers valuable insights for Ukraine in its pursuit of enduring stability and prosperity amid external threats. This blog explores some of the lessons that may be drawn from West Germany across economic and military themes.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Economics, History, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and West Germany