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101. Advancing Governance at the Nexus of Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Fei Su, Vladislav Chernavskikh, and Wilfred Wan
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The rapid advancement of military artificial intelligence (AI), especially its potential integration into nuclear systems, presents significant risks to strategic stability and established deterrence practices. Despite these concerns, no dedicated governance framework currently exists to address the specific challenges of the AI–nuclear nexus. Existing initiatives have primarily focused on ensuring human control over nuclear decision-making. There are a number of state-led initiatives on the governance of military AI more broadly. They can be adapted to address the use of AI in nuclear weapons, but applying them will not be straightforward. There is thus a need to extend the conversation beyond the ‘human in the loop’ concept and develop targeted governance measures. Future discussions could investigate the precise level and degree of required human control and set clear red lines for both the extent and the type of AI integration in nuclear and related systems.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Governance, Disarmament, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

102. Azerbaijan Gets Bolder: How It Won Back Its lands, the Lesssons for Others, and What Comes Next for the South Caucasus

Author:
Zaur Shiriyev
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency has accelerated the fraying of the old world order, causing headaches for many states. But a confident Azerbaijan seems less affected by such uncertainty - for now. It sees itself as outside rival camps: neither east nor west, neither global north nor south. It is not strongly beholden to any major power and, for the first time, it is territorially complete. Azerbaijan, flush from its military victory in 2023, when it won back its long-cherished Nagorno-Karabakh region from Armenian separatists, now wields power not just in the South Caucasus, but in the wider region, including Central Asia. It got here slowly, by carefully pursuing balancing acts for three decades, primarily to avoid full alignment with either the West or its former colonial master, Russia – unlike most of its neighbors. Staying aloof, Baku sought to maximize support from major powers in its conflict with Armenia as they competed to woo it into their spheres of influence. Taking back former Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories that the Armenians had long occupied was Azerbaijan’s overriding national security objective since independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.1 The return of the last of this territory — in a one-day offensive in September 2023— healed the wound that had festered as the core of a long-standing conflict with Armenia, and boosted Azerbaijan’s regional position. It has also triggered a search for a post-Karabakh identity for Azerbaijan, which is redefining its foreign-policy priorities and national identity. The conflict’s resolution has also sparked debate about what lessons, if any, other countries might learn from Azerbaijan’s strategy. However, some misguided assumptions – such as the belief that Baku had won Russia’s covert approval for its military actions – have led to flawed conclusions. In Georgia, for example, some politicians argue that the lesson from the Karabakh war is that an agreement over breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia could be reached if Tbilisi pursues closer ties with the Kremlin.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Armed Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

103. Polarization of the Post-Soviet region - A Harbor for Local Autocrats

Author:
Nino Imedashvili
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the challenging regional environment, marked by intense interactions and high tensions between Russia and the West, has often been leveraged by local autocrats to consolidate their power. By instrumentalizing the fragile security landscape and perceived foreign threats in the post-Soviet space, they have effectively obscured the decline of democratic governance. Since the 2000s, the international environment for post-Soviet countries has become increasingly polarized. As Russia has sought to assert its dominance in the region and strengthen its economic standing, the West has intensified its engagement with local nations. However, the European Union’s limited influence in the region has allowed the local authoritarian regimes to survive for many years. This was made particularly evident in two significant events in the region that significantly increased the level of polarization, following which, local autocrats, with the support of Russia, were able to take steps to reinforce their power. The first was the successful color revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine in 2003-2004, which sparked optimism for regional democratic development. The second was the full-scale attack by Russia on Ukraine in 2022, which dealt a devastating blow to those emerging hopes. This article aims to illustrate how certain countries in the region - specifically Armenia, Belarus, and Georgia – have leveraged regional polarization, with the support and in imitation of Russia, to reinforce their repressive governance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Polarization, Post-Soviet Space, Autocracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia, and Belarus

104. Armenian Foreign Policy in 2025: The Return of Geography

Author:
Benyamin Poghosyan
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Russia’s advances in Ukraine in 2024 and the first months of 2025, coupled with the new US administration’s decision to enter direct negotiations with Russia to end the war, have increased the likelihood that Russia, in the short- to mid-term, will expand its influence in the post-Soviet space, including the South Caucasus. The United States’ shifting focus from Europe to Asia–Pacific, diverging policy views between Washington and Brussels, and the socioeconomic challenges European Union member states face will likely diminish the role of the United States and the EU in the region. Meanwhile, ad hoc partnerships and minilateral groupings prioritizing regionalism prevail over larger, more formal multilateral coalitions. Armenia can only adapt its foreign policy in 2025 to the evolving regional geopolitical landscape and the looming risk of regional instability. The primary goals of Armenian foreign policy should be: ● Continuing negotiations with Azerbaijan and Turkey; ● Deepening cooperation with Georgia and Iran; ● Establishing a new modus operandi with Russia; ● Exploring the establishment of minilateral groupings1 ; ● Readjusting relations with the United States and the European Union while maintaining the positive momentum of recent years. This approach will allow Armenia to safeguard its sovereignty, navigate shifting power dynamics, and seize emerging opportunities while minimizing the risk of antagonizing regional and global powers.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, European Union, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Armenia

105. Nuclear Deterrence Explained: Strategic Implications for Europe in the Absence of U.S. Extended Deterrence

Author:
Iakob Dadvani
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Recent developments in U.S. foreign policy discourse indicate two potential future directions: prioritization or retrenchment.1 Trump’s foreign policy rhetoric clearly reflects a tendency toward retrenchment, particularly with respect to Europe. The most prominent indicators of this shift include the potential U.S. withdrawal from NATO European command, or a significant downsizing of its role2 , which would reduce the alliance’s overall combat effectiveness. This change would necessitate increased defense spending from European countries to maintain credible conventional deterrence, as the aggregate military power must remain constant despite reduced American involvement. Further to this are the moves to solve the Russia-Ukraine war by pressuring Ukrainians into negotiations that result in an unjust peace without security guarantees.3 Such an outcome would likely lead to long-term instability across the European continent.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Donald Trump, Regional Security, Russia-Ukraine War, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

106. Nationalist “Hijacking” Of Student Protests: Case Study Of The Telegram Channel “BUNT je stanje duha”

Author:
Katarina Bogićević
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
Drawing on the methodological framework of critical discourse analysis, the study explores the strategies through which extreme digital speech is camouflaged, normalised, and introduced into legitimate spaces of political action. Particular attention is given to the adoption of alt-right aesthetics—including irony, memes, and cultural codes—to legitimise and promote ethno-nationalist narratives. Through such subtle tactics, far-right ideological positions move from the margins and establish a presence within the broader protest framework. The analysis shows that BUNT’s discursive intervention targets not only the delegitimisation of liberal-democratic actors but also the transformation of civic resistance into a symbolic struggle for a nationalist order. By relying on emotionally charged and dehumanising messages, constructed “inserted elements,” and imagined threats, the channel seeks to undermine the democratic character of the protests and narrow the space for political and identity pluralism. Consequently, this study aims to contribute to the understanding of the complex dynamics of radicalisation within the interplay between digital extremist cultures and contemporary social movements.
Topic:
Protests, Students, Telegram, and Discourse Analysis
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

107. Don’t Be Deceived by Reported Electoral Turnout: Analyzing Iraq’s Elections by the Numbers

Author:
Munqith Dagher
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
By comparing the outcome of Iraq's recent elections with the country's demographic trends, a clear difference emerges between the proportion of Iraqis whose votes are represented in the new parliament and the Iraqi population writ large. The Iraqi parliamentary elections held on November 11, 2025 marked a pivotal turning point in the history of the post-2003 Iraqi state. At first glance, these elections reversed a trend of political disengagement; the number of parliamentary candidates increased significantly from previous elections (7,926 candidates competed for 329 parliamentary seats), alongside a massive increase in electoral spending estimated at billions of dollars and an increase in the voter participation rate that defied expectations. However, simply reading the total figures published by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) without delving into the underlying details can give false impressions and inaccurate conclusions about what Iraq’s latest elections mean for the political preferences of Iraqis.
Topic:
Demographics, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

108. Prospects for Iraq-Syria Security Cooperation in a Post-Assad World

Author:
Mohanad Faris
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Islamic State threats in the border region necessitate shared efforts between Baghdad and Syria’s new leadership as coalition forces withdraw, but Iraq’s November 11 election and internal divisions over engaging with Damascus are blocking progress.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Islamic State, Rapprochement, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

109. Christians in the New Syria: Accepted, But At-Risk

Author:
Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although some Christians have been targeted post-Assad, these incidents are hardly an attempted "genocide," but rather part of the broader internal security challenge affecting all communities in Syria, including the majority population.
Topic:
Security, Minorities, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Post-Conflict, and Christians
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

110. Somoud, al-Fashir, and the Battle for Sudan’s Future

Author:
Abdel-Monim Omer Ibrahim
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A historic city has fallen, but if the world listens carefully, it may yet rise again as a catalyst for a different path in which power flows from legitimacy, not force.
Topic:
Civil War, Legitimacy, Atrocities, Humanitarian Crisis, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and al-Fashir

111. Iraq's Pivotal Parliamentary Election

Author:
Mina Al-Oraibi, Munqith Dagher, and James Jeffrey
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Two regional political experts join a former U.S. ambassador to discuss how the final campaign push is shaping up and what the outcome could hold for U.S. interests.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

112. Hezbollah Is Down But Not Out

Author:
Michael Jacobson and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Undermining the group in Lebanon requires targeting its networks abroad.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Hezbollah, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Lebanon

113. Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 2): Implications for Turkish and U.S. Policy

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
If Ankara seals the deal and preempts potential spoilers, the results could prove historic for Turkish politics, Erdogan’s legacy, joint counterterrorism efforts, and wider U.S. regional interests. nkara’s new dialogue with the PKK was born from nearly a decade of meticulous counterterrorism work, carried out by the country’s security forces and National Intelligence Organization and based on a political plan formulated by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who served as intelligence chief until 2023. The steps involved in this strategy have since become clear: (1) double down on pressuring and weakening the PKK via drone strikes and other effective tools, (2) bring the group back to the negotiating table from a position of weakness, and (3) negotiate the group’s breakup via Kurdish political intermediaries, as described in Part 1 of this PolicyWatch. The first phase of the plan achieved major successes against PKK militants in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, while phases two and three are seemingly being checked off as well amid reports that Abdullah Ocalan may soon ask his group to lay down their arms. To close the deal, end the PKK threat once and for all, and score a domestic political prize in the process, Fidan, Erdogan, and Turkey’s national security elites have been actively engaging Kurdish actors at home and abroad, whether to increase pressure on the group or offer incentives for disbanding.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Negotiation, Kurds, PKK, Dialogue, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and United States of America

114. Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 1): Kurdish Actors and Interests

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although past peace efforts have fallen apart due to diplomatic stumbles and Kurdish opposition, the situation on the ground in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey has changed dramatically enough to warrant optimism about Ankara’s current talks. Turkey is reportedly on the cusp of a historic announcement by Abdullah Ocalan, jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), with sources indicating he may soon ask the movement’s members to disband and end their longstanding fight against the government. Resolving the state’s five-decade conflict with a designated terrorist group would have momentous repercussions on a wide range of issues, from Turkish politics at home to bilateral ties abroad. For one, it could remove the PKK thorn from U.S.-Turkish relations and pave the way for their anticipated reset under the second Trump administration. It would also affect developments next door in Syria, where Washington has partnered with the PKK’s Syrian branch, the People’s Defense Units (YPG), since 2014 to fight the Islamic State—rousing Turkey’s ire in the process. Yet what are the deal’s actual chances for success, and what specific implications might it hold for the many relevant actors in the region and beyond? Part 1 of this PolicyWatch analyzes the Kurdish angles in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq; Part 2 assesses broader U.S. and Turkish policy considerations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Kurds, PKK, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

115. Assessing the Gaza Death Toll After Eighteen Months of War

Author:
Gabriel Epstein
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Health officials have compiled a largely comprehensive list, but questions remain about the Gaza ministry’s opaque revision process and vetting of family reports—along with unknown deaths and missing persons. In May 2025, the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health released its ninth list of the dead since the war began in October 2023. The document—spotlighting the massive scale of the human tragedy unleashed by Hamas’s massacre—reflects a significant effort by Gaza health officials to record and identify all those killed. Yet methodological questions persist about the ministry’s opaque revision process and vetting of reports from family members. Moreover, the tally itself is far from complete, exemplified by unknowns about unreported deaths and missing persons that could eventually reshape media narratives about the war’s cost. And the ministry’s findings remain irreconcilable with the competing, entirely false figures published by the Hamas-run Government Media Office. In this Policy Note, which follows up on a related study from January 2024, Gabriel Epstein meticulously analyzes Gaza fatality reporting, including through first-time discussions of the Health Ministry’s use of placeholder identification numbers and questionable revision practices. Experts and journalists will also find guidelines for responsibly navigating often divergent fatality reports emerging from Gaza, Israel, and international organizations.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Death Toll
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

116. Here’s How State Department Cuts Would Impede U.S. Policy in the Middle East

Author:
Ben Fishman and Elizabeth Surman
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Trump administration’s budget cuts, intended to make America “safer, stronger, and more prosperous,” could wind up harming U.S. interests in the region while strengthening Russian and Chinese media warfare. At a time when the Middle East needs additional help managing the fallout from the war with Iran, the extreme State Department budget cuts initiated by the Trump administration are especially ill-timed. By cutting funds to partners who combat Iran’s most dangerous regional proxies, the administration risks enabling a faster rehabilitation of Tehran’s “axis of resistance.” Other cuts would limit Washington’s ability to provide lifesaving humanitarian assistance to Yemen, constrain efforts to reach the Iranian people, and cede ground to China and Russia in the information wars—one of the many negative repercussions of eliminating a vital network like Voice of America (VOA). The Senate has until July 18 to object to these cuts because the administration submitted its budget by means of a rescission bill, a rarely used procedure that gives Congress a limited period to respond to the administration’s proposal before it takes effect.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, State Department, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Middle East, and United States of America

117. Caution and Fear of a Crackdown: Iranian Kurdish Opposition Responses to the Israel-Iran Conflict

Author:
Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iranian Kurdish opposition groups remain committed to regime change in Iran, but external and internal factors contributed to the caution with which they approached the recent conflict. In the immediate aftermath of Israel’s recent strikes on Iran and its calls for regime change, major Iranian Kurdish opposition groups issued several statements, condemning the Islamic Republic of Iran but not necessarily espousing the war’s aims. As opposition groups that have fought against the Islamic Republic for decades—Ayatollah Khomeini issued a fatwa for jihad against the Kurdish parties in Iran in 1979—each statement echoed a longstanding stance of the respective group. Nevertheless, the Iranian Kurdish parties responded to Israel’s calls for immediate regime change with caution and suspicion. Now that a ceasefire has been declared, they fear a crackdown in Kurdish areas of Iran in the aftermath of the conflict, in line with previous periods when Iranian Kurdish areas have become scapegoats for the regime.
Topic:
Regime Change, Domestic Politics, Kurds, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

118. Without Accountability, Syria’s Sectarian Violence Will Only Worsen

Author:
Kayla Koontz and Gregory Waters
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The government’s plans for (and capacity to carry out) amnesties and transitional justice remain uncertain, spurring some Sunnis and Alawites to take matters into their own hands and contribute to a rising wave of intercommunal violence.
Topic:
Sectarianism, Transitional Justice, Transparency, Sunni, Alawites, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

119. Is the Islamic Republic Starting to Crack? The Signs to Watch

Author:
Holly Dagres
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although the crisis has not yet checked all the boxes that would signal fatal regime vulnerability, the situation could change quickly due to shifting conditions on the battlefield, on the streets, or within the halls of power in Tehran.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, and Regime Durability
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

120. Under the Pretext of "Morality": Morality Rhetoric and Freedom of Expression in Iraq

Author:
Azhar Al-Rubaie
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Over the past number of years, many Iraqis have become increasingly concerned about media restrictions imposed by Iraqi authorities, who have banned numerous applications, electronic platforms, and news websites.
Topic:
Freedom of Expression, Morality, and Digital Platforms
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

121. Aligning global military posture with U.S. interests

Author:
Jennifer Kavanagh and Dan Caldwell
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
The Pentagon should revise the U.S. global military posture to be consistent with protecting vital national interests based on a grand strategy of realism and restraint. This will mean reducing the size of the military footprint in certain regions and changing the mix and location of military forces in others. A review of the U.S. global military posture should focus on four priorities: defending the homeland, preventing the rise of a rival regional hegemon in key areas, burden shifting to allies and partners, and protecting U.S. economic security. The current military posture in Europe is too large, encouraging free-riding by European allies and preventing them from taking more responsibility for their own security. U.S. troop levels should be reduced to approximately where they were before Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine. This will involve the withdrawal of some ground combat units, multiple fighter squadrons, and several destroyers. Likewise, the military posture in the Middle East is too large given limited U.S. interests and the region’s lack of an existential military threat to the U.S. homeland. Air and naval assets deployed after the 2023 attacks on Israel should be removed, post-9/11 legacy deployments in Iraq and Syria should be ended, and troops in Kuwait and Qatar should be fully withdrawn. The U.S. military posture in East Asia should be realigned to focus on balancing Chinese power and protecting U.S. interests. Recommended changes include removing most ground forces and two fighter squadrons from South Korea, moving U.S. forces away from the Chinese coast, and shifting more frontline defense responsibilities to allies like Japan and the Philippines.
Topic:
Grand Strategy, Strategic Interests, Military, and Pentagon
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

122. Will the U.S. go to war over Taiwan?

Author:
Jennifer Kavanagh
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
The small island of Taiwan is often at the center of U.S. foreign policy discourse. This is thanks to the threat of a Chinese invasion and fears over a resulting loss of U.S. military and economic power in the region. A recent survey by Defense Priorities shows there is substantial disagreement among experts as to how the United States should and would respond to a Taiwan conflict. This suggests the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan is working. The experts surveyed largely agreed that China is unlikely to invade Taiwan, a departure from political and military leaders who have inflated the possibility. They also tended to agree that China is unlikely to strike U.S. military bases in East Asia ahead of a Taiwan invasion, which would grant U.S. leaders flexibility in how they respond to this scenario. These experts are divided, however, on what that response should look like. Some say the United States should use direct military force in Taiwan while others argue it should only send military aid. Very few think the U.S. should stay out completely. Even as they acknowledge that a successful seizure of Taiwan would not offer China significant military or economic benefits and recognize the enormous risks and costs to the United States of entering a Taiwan conflict, some experts continue to support a U.S. intervention. This tension is perhaps best explained by a lingering attachment to the pursuit of U.S. hegemony.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Strategic Ambiguity
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

123. Grand strategy: Deterrence

Author:
Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
Deterrence is the mobilization of coercive means to convince an adversary not to take an aggressive action. This can mean mobilizing an effective defense—convincing an adversary they will not be able to achieve their goal—or threatening to punish an adversary so even successful aggression doesn’t seem worthwhile. The ability to deter an adversary requires that they perceive both the capability and the will to carry out a deterrent threat—in other words, that they find the deterrent threat “credible.” It also requires an implicit assurance that the adversary will not suffer should they refrain from taking action. The massive and mutually destructive power of nuclear weapons makes leaders especially cautious about taking actions that could escalate to nuclear war, thereby suppressing the incentives for conventional war between nuclear-armed states. Extended nuclear deterrence, such as the “nuclear umbrella” the United States has extended to many of its allies since World War II, puts strain on the credibility underlying nuclear deterrence since it risks annihilation on behalf of allies. Extended deterrence becomes less credible and therefore more likely to fail when the fate of the third party is not vital to the state defending it. Now that its core allies have the latent capability to defend themselves—including with nuclear weapons—the United States should exit unnecessary commitments to extended deterrence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Grand Strategy, Deterrence, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
Global Focus

124. No GWOT-Narco

Author:
Daniel Depetris and Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
The violence perpetrated by Mexico’s drug cartels, their persistent export of drugs into the United States, and the massive toll of fentanyl overdose deaths have prompted the Trump administration to present U.S. military force as a possible solution. Any U.S. military incursion into Mexico will create more problems than it solves. It will disrupt the cartels for a time but drug smuggling will continue given demand and profits. U.S. military action could also raise the risk of the cartels retaliating against Americans inside Mexico and even inside the United States. The diplomatic repercussions would be significant as well: Mexico would view U.S. military force without its consent as an act of war. Various military solutions lack promise. A counterinsurgency operation will sink U.S. troops into a long-term campaign with no concrete end date. Targeting cartel kingpins is likely to splinter the cartels into smaller groups, not eliminate them. A plan to strengthen the presence of the Mexican military inside Mexico is also unlikely to work. There is no silver bullet to stop the cartels. While the United States can take some practical measures to weaken the cartels, like stemming the flow of firearms into Mexico, it can’t achieve much more than this and shouldn’t try.
Topic:
Narcotics Trafficking, Military Intervention, Violence, and Cartels
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

125. Target Taiwan: Challenges for a U.S. intervention

Author:
Lyle Goldstein
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
China could attack Taiwan, attempting a fait accompli before the United States could mobilize sufficient forces in theater to defend it. Chinese advantages of proximity and will suggest that the U.S. would pay a heavy price in this scenario. U.S. ground forces would struggle to enter the combat theater in the relevant time because of uncertainties related to the air and sea campaigns. Attempts to insert U.S. ground forces in peacetime could ignite the very conflict they would intend to deter. Chinese missile, air, and drone assaults could damage U.S. airfields in the region and slow U.S. air support, acutely degrading U.S. maritime operations and Taiwan’s ground defenses. Because U.S. Navy surface forces, including aircraft carrier battle groups, are vulnerable to China’s A2/AD systems, combat in a Taiwan scenario would likely be disproportionately borne by the U.S. Navy submarine force. While these submarines could do damage to the Chinese Navy, they probably lack sufficient firepower to affect the overall outcome of a war. Surging forward U.S. air and naval power in a Taiwan scenario would entail incredible risks, including nuclear escalation. Any war or even intensive militarized rivalry between the U.S. and China would entail enormous risks in exchange for little gain.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Armed Forces, Military Intervention, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

126. Target Taiwan: Prospects for a Chinese invasion

Author:
Lyle Goldstein
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
In a scenario where China attempts an amphibious invasion of Taiwan and the United States does not fight, the invasion will likely succeed assuming Beijing is willing to bear heavy casualties. Taiwan’s vulnerability to China is due to its proximity, since it is located well within range of Chinese missiles, airpower, rocket artillery, helicopters, and paratroopers. All this will reduce Taiwan’s ability to prevent an amphibious landing. Due to its air superiority and the geography of Taiwan, which is mostly urban and mountainous, China can plan for an infantry fight, at least initially, not one dominated by heavy armor. Hence, civilian vessels, including small craft of all types, can help ferry most troops ashore. While an operation to seize Taiwan would be a highly risky endeavor that could result in heavy Chinese losses, Beijing would likely be motivated to bear such costs, since it views national unification as a core interest. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan thus cannot be discounted and Taiwan should prepare by boosting its defense spending, emphasizing its own self-reliance, and engaging in diplomacy.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Armed Conflict, Vulnerability, and Invasion
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

127. Keep NATO focused on Europe, not China

Author:
Thomas P. Cavanna
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
During the Trump I and Biden presidencies, the United States applied growing pressure on NATO to turn against China. Although focused on protecting Europe, these efforts also attempted to expand the alliance’s prerogatives into the Indo-Pacific. Should this expansion continue, it could distract NATO from Russia, the only real threat that Europe faces. It could also delay the emergence of a more autonomous Europe able to defend itself, thereby perpetuating current U.S. overstretch and reducing Washington’s ability to concentrate on the China challenge in Asia. NATO’s turn against China might generate undue tensions with the PRC, deepen Sino-Russian cooperation, and cause controversy in the Global South, all of which would work against U.S. interests. Instead of trying to fold Europe and Asia together to counter the Sino-Russian axis along the Eurasian rimland, the U.S. should keep NATO focused on Russia and encourage European strategic autonomy. It should refocus its own efforts on the Indo-Pacific and reduce the risk of escalation with Beijing.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Expansionism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Asia

128. China can’t dominate the Middle East

Author:
Rosemary Kelanic
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
A common argument for the United States to remain in the Middle East is that it needs to counter Chinese expansionism. The U.S. is embroiled in a new cold war, this line of thinking goes, and if it withdraws from the Middle East, Beijing will fill the power vacuum and expand its influence. This fundamentally misreads China’s modest aims in the region, which have more to do with hedging against U.S. threats to Chinese oil access. Unlike the Soviet Union, which was proximate to the Middle East, China lacks the military wherewithal to threaten the region. And whereas it was very plausible that the Soviet Union could have captured and weaponized Middle Eastern oil production, China almost certainly could not capture the oil, and even if it did, couldn’t withhold it from the global market. In the Middle East, the United States faces less of a military and economic threat from China than it did from the Soviet Union. It should respond by finally withdrawing from the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Oil, Strategic Competition, and Expansionism
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

129. Climate, Peace and Security in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author:
Katongo Seyuba
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Local communities in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) face the combined challenge of climate change and violent conflict, which exacerbates vulnerabilities, poverty, displacement and human insecurity. This SIPRI Insights Paper examines how climate change interacts with existing vulnerabilities in North Kivu and South Kivu to heighten human insecurity and conflict risks. The findings highlight that the link between climate change and conflict is shaped by the governance and accessibility of natural resources such as land and water. Changes in the availability and quality of such resources may increase the risks of tensions and intercommunal conflicts, especially in areas where such resources are already contested. Climate-related security risks present both immediate and long-term challenges to an already fragile peacebuilding environment in the region. Consequently, this paper recommends integrating climate and environmental considerations into peacebuilding and stabilization efforts.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

130. Addressing Fragility through Integrated Peacebuilding

Author:
Dylan O'Driscoll, Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, and Markus Mayer
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The world today is facing unrelenting and interrelated environmental, ecological, demographic, socio-economic and political pressures that challenge resources at local, national, regional and global levels. Addressing these crises requires integrated approaches that respond to their compounding nature as well as new funding modalities to spur effective collaboration. This SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security paper explores both the opportunities and processes for reforming aid provision in fragile settings. The paper advocates for an integrated peacebuilding approach that tackles multiple complex issues together in a collaborative, long-term and interlinked manner. It outlines necessary changes at the political, donor and organizational levels to make this approach a reality.
Topic:
Development, Crisis Management, Peacebuilding, and Fragility
Political Geography:
Global Focus

131. The Yemen Review Quarterly: October-December 2024

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Houthi leader Abdelmalek al-Houthi sought to reposition his movement as the head of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. Israel’s destruction of Gaza and attacks on Lebanon’s Hezbollah, including the killing of its influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah, have left the alliance weakened, a point underscored by the rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran has tried to avoid direct conflict with Israel and the West, leaving the Houthis as the only undiminished group continuing to fight. Abdelmalek has increasingly spoken as if on behalf of the entire alliance, condemning the war in Gaza and chastising Saudi Arabia for pursuing normalization with Israel. The Houthis dissolved their Supreme Council for the Management and Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and International Cooperation (SCMCHA), transferring its responsibilities to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. SCMCHA oversaw humanitarian operations and was notorious for its interference and aid diversion. The move follows the arrest and detention of dozens of humanitarian workers in June, some of whom have since been charged with espionage.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, Houthis, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

132. The Yemen Review Quarterly: January-March 2025

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
On March 15, the US launched Operation Rough Rider, a massive expansion of its aerial campaign against the Houthi group (Ansar Allah). The strikes followed a Houthi threat to resume targeting Israeli ships due to the blockade of aid into Gaza on March 2. Strikes have been taking place continuously as of the time of writing. The Houthi-affiliated Health Ministry has reported that as of April 14, at least 123 civilians have been killed and another 247 wounded, though the real numbers are probably higher. The airstrikes are fundamentally different than those undertaken during the Biden administration, both in intensity and scope, targeting not just missile installations and weapons depots, but also communications infrastructure and the group’s leadership. International scrutiny of the airstrikes briefly increased when the White House mistakenly leaked operational plans to a journalist.
Topic:
Politics, Houthis, Humanitarian Crisis, Shipping, and Airstrikes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

133. The IMF’s Lebanon Framework: Balancing State Debt with Depositor Rights

Author:
Samara Azzi
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
So far, the proposals presented to Lebanon’s central bank risk prolonging rather than solving the country’s financial and economic woes. As Lebanon faces multiple challenges with economic and financial recovery from the country’s 2019 economic collapse, two interconnected issues remain particularly controversial: recovering the money of Lebanese who lost access to their bank deposits and holding those responsible for squandering their money accountable. Many insist on placing the blame on the Lebanese banking sector, thereby absolving current and former government officials of their role in swindling account holders. This is the narrative preferred by Hezbollah and its allies, who provided the political cover for the culture of corruption that eventually led to economic collapse. The new government is negotiating a reform package with the IMF, which presents a great opportunity to hold officials and politicians accountable. However, discussions do not seem to be moving in the right direction. Rather than focusing on accountability, the IMF, like other international lenders, appears to be focused primarily on minimizing the indebtedness of its prospective client—in this case, the Lebanese state—at the expense of depositors and the central bank.
Topic:
Debt, IMF, Banking, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

134. South Korea and the Middle East’s Defense Localization Drive: A New Strategic Fit

Author:
Bonggeun Kim
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Given South Korea’s willingness to offer technology transfer, local production arrangements, and politically flexible partnerships, it has become an attractive alternative to Western and Russian suppliers, presenting both opportunities and competitive challenges for U.S. policy in the region.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Partnerships, and Localization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Asia, and South Korea

135. Coal, Oil, Gas, and Nuclear: Risks in Turkey’s Growing Energy Demands

Author:
Mustafa Enes Esen
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Without further diversification of suppliers, expanded renewable capacity, strategic investments in LNG, and nuclear partnerships beyond Russia, Turkey risks exchanging one form of energy dependency for another.
Topic:
Gas, Diversification, Supply Chains, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

136. A Roadmap for Israel-Lebanon Peace

Author:
Hanin Ghaddar, Robert Satloff, and Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Pursuing even incremental steps will be difficult in a country long dominated by Iran’s chief regional proxy, but the two countries’ leaders have cracked the door open for future diplomacy.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Politics, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

137. Balancing National Security and Economic Priorities in the U.S.-Jordan Relationship

Author:
Saud Al-Sharafat
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the U.S. administration shifts towards an economics-first approach to foreign policy, Jordan will need to find ways to emphasize the benefits of the two countries' decades-long broader strategic relationship in public messaging—both for its own national security interests and as a way to assuage public concerns. Recent developments in U.S.-Jordanian relations, from the announcement of President Trump’s “Middle East riviera” plan for Gaza to tariff announcements—have prompted the question of how Jordan will deal with the current regional challenges it faces as the United States reorients to an economy-focused approach. For a country like Jordan, which has relied on a combination of military support and diplomatic engagement with the United States and Israel for more than seven decades, its primary challenge now lies in integrating these new market-based visions with the realities of the entrenched political conflicts that surround and impact its domestic national security. Jordan will have a dual challenge: managing domestic attitudes towards this U.S. reprioritization and, on an external level, articulating a dynamic and forward-thinking strategy to emphasize its continued importance to U.S. policymakers. On the one hand, Jordan's options in response to a more distant United States are few and far from ideal; yet Jordan has its own strong incentives to promote stability in the region, as well as concrete examples it can point to regarding how the value of its relationship with the United States extends beyond the economic when it comes to the impact of its stability and security in broader regional dynamics. Perhaps most importantly, Jordan has been and can continue to be a regional first line of defense against all types of extremism, whether leftist, nationalist, or religious. Ensuring that this message reaches those in power in the United States may require more extensive and creative avenues than in the past, but will be vital in emphasizing the ongoing value of the relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, Jordan, and United States of America

138. Iraqi Kurds Could Facilitate and Mediate in PKK-Turkish Peace Process


Author:
Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
New developments in the PKK-Turkey peace process are a window of opportunity for Iraqi Kurdish parties to stabilize areas of Iraqi Kurdistan affected by the conflict and help facilitate a lasting peace. In a major development, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leadership announced on May 12 that the group would disband, potentially marking an end to its forty year conflict with Turkey after a peace process began between its imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan’s and the Turkish state last October. However, much of the conflict has unfolded not in Turkey but in Iraq—and specifically the Kurdistan Region of Iraq—where Turkey has fought the PKK since the 1980s in a conflict that has threatened civilian lives, prompted internal displacement, and damaged the local economy. Given the destabilizing role of this conflict there, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has proven keen on a successful peace process in Turkey, since it could remove what it sees as PKK’s territorial encroachment in Iraqi Kurdistan. Both the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the KDP have also played mediating roles in the previous peace processes between Turkey and the PKK. While the PKK entered the Qandil mountains in Iraqi Kurdistan via a deal with the KDP in 1982, the PKK subsequently extended its presence outside of Qandil in the 1990s and came into conflict with the KDP during the Kurdish civil war. And during Turkish military cross-border operations against the PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan, which have increased since 2019, there have also been skirmishes and tensions between the KDP and PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan, including clashes between the PKK and Peshmerga, assassinations, market fires, and drone attacks on Peshmerga forces. The Turkish-PKK conflict has also led to civilian casualties in Iraqi Kurdistan, such as when eight Iraqi tourists were killed in 2022 in Turkish strikes, sparking diplomatic tensions between Baghdad and Ankara. These activities have been deeply concerning to the KDP, leading it to call on the PKK to return to Qandil and leave other areas of Iraqi Kurdistan in 2021 and offering its support for new peace talks with Turkey in return.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Kurds, Political Parties, PKK, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

139. Leveraging the Gaps in Russia and China’s Complex Relations with Iran

Author:
Richard Nephew
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Far from signaling a strong trilateral alliance, their history of often transactional cooperation reveals strategic gaps that Washington can leverage to help curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. For all the hoopla that preceded it, the trilateral China-Iran-Russia meeting on Tehran’s nuclear program did not appear to generate anything of great significance. The joint statement issued after the March 15 Beijing gathering largely echoed previous such documents, from condemning “unlawful unilateral sanctions” against Iran to reiterating a mutual desire for a diplomatic solution. That said, the mere act of holding the meeting may have been the objective, to signal to the world that the three countries stand together. This show of unity could have immediate practical effects given the partial expiration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2025—including the “snapback” provision that permits the UN to reimpose full sanctions on Iran if a JCPOA participant triggers the mechanism. At the same time, the three governments still have diverging historical and strategic interests on a range of issues—differences that will not dissipate just because they hold a joint meeting and share friction with the United States. If Washington hopes to exploit these fault lines, however, it must properly understand them.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, and Middle East

140. Setting Up the Next Phase of U.S.-UAE Nuclear Cooperation

Author:
Noam Raydan
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With the U.S. point man on energy development touring the Gulf and Chinese and Russian nuclear initiatives on the rise, the Trump administration should consider how best to replicate the responsible Emirati model elsewhere in the region. To kick off his first official tour of the Middle East, U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright arrived in the United Arab Emirates this week, where he has been meeting with key stakeholders and is expected to make a timely visit to the Barakah civil nuclear power plant in al-Dhafra. The plant visit comes amid growing global enthusiasm about nuclear energy, both to meet decarbonization targets and to address tech company plans for more data centers and artificial intelligence initiatives that require substantial amounts of nonstop power. Yet Wright also has an opportunity to underscore the importance of solid nuclear policy in a region where such technology is usually associated with proliferation risks.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Middle East, United Arab Emirates, and United States of America

141. China Flexes Its Soft Power in the KRI

Author:
Winthrop Rodgers and Sardar Aziz
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, signs of Chinese soft power are increasingly visible to residents of an area with longstanding ties to the United States. As the world’s largest nation without a state of their own, Kurdish politicians in Iraq have long prioritized robust and visible relationships with foreign powers as a means to ensure the leaders and interests of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region (KRI) remain relevant amid changing geopolitical tides. For foreign governments, this welcoming atmosphere provides an opportunity to nurture the green shoots of soft power, often in the most ordinary ways. Given the longstanding role of U.S. foreign aid in the KRI, Chinese soft power efforts and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG)’s response may provide a bell weather for how other longstanding U.S. allies respond to the shift in American attitudes towards aid and its attendant soft power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, United States of America, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

142. Countering Iran's Deceptive Behavior in Nuclear Negotiations

Author:
Farzin Nadimi
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In negotiations, the Iranian regime prefers to operate discreetly and secretly, allowing Tehran to shape the information spectrum and protract talks to buy time and wear down their negotiation counterparts. By shining light on the diplomatic process, U.S. policymakers can provide a counter-narrative that takes to task Iranian intransigence and provides accurate information for the Iranian public. Iran's adept use of secrecy, disinformation, and stalling tactics has long posed significant challenges to international efforts aimed at curbing its nuclear ambitions. As the United States prepares for its renewed negotiations with Tehran, anticipating and countering these tactics is key to shaping the negotiating context and facilitating diplomatic progress.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Negotiation, Propaganda, Disinformation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

143. Allowing Political Opposition in the New Syria

Author:
Ishtar Al Shami
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The new Syrian government will be judged not just by its treatment of minorities, but also how it approaches political opposition—and its checkered history in this regard gives pause.
Topic:
Minorities, Domestic Politics, Syrian War, Opposition, Post-Conflict, and Ahmad al-Sharaa
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

144. To Halt the Jihadist Advance in Somalia, Work with Turkey and the UAE

Author:
Ido Levy
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Overhauled Turkish and Emirati training programs for the Somali army and renewed funding for the African Union mission could provide the boost that Mogadishu needs, and Washington should push for both. n July 27, the al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group al-Shabab seized the town of Mahas in central Somalia. For the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), the loss of Mahas after a series of defeats is particularly stinging, as the town was liberated by African Union (AU) and government forces in 2014. Al-Shabab’s latest onslaught, which began earlier this year, has brought it additional territories around the capital. The empowered al-Qaeda affiliate is also still bent on attacking U.S. interests around the world. Last year, a federal court convicted an al-Shabab operative in New York of plotting a “9/11-style attack,” and in 2023, U.S. authorities charged an American citizen arrested in Kenya for attempting to join al-Shabab to attack the United States. Moreover, the UN has reported a budding tactical relationship in which the Yemeni Houthis transfer weapons and know-how to al-Shabab, while the Somali group agrees to ramp up piracy to support Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. Seizing more territory in Somalia gives al-Shabab additional resources and infrastructure for such activities abroad.
Topic:
Security, Training, Jihad, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Middle East, Somalia, and United Arab Emirates

145. Spy Versus Spy: Iran’s Playbook for Espionage in Israel

Author:
Sarah Boches and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Tehran’s recruitment of Israelis for military surveillance, sabotage, assassination plots, and other operations is on the rise, showing how the shadow war between the two adversaries continues to evolve even after their recent hot war.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Surveillance, and Espionage
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

146. How Washington’s Drone Policy Is Catching Up to Reality

Author:
Elizabeth Dent and Grant Rumley
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
To balance competition and global responsibility, the Trump administration should combine its welcome reinterpretation of the MTCR with updated nonproliferation standards and robust safeguards.
Topic:
Weapons, Drones, Nonproliferation, and Competition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

147. Freeing Libya’s Locked-Up Oil Reserves

Author:
Joseph Hammond
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Restoring the oil-for-fuel program would avert a near-term crisis and potentially provide a platform for more ambitious reform—though it is unlikely to succeed without greater transparency, international monitoring, and subsidy changes.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Reform, Exports, and Energy
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

148. Facing Fiscal Pressures: Iraq’s Struggle for Reform Ahead of the 2025 Election

Author:
Mohammed Hussein
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Facing Fiscal Pressures: Iraq’s Struggle for Reform Ahead of the 2025 Election
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, Fiscal Policy, and Elites
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

149. The Devastating Impact of Lebanon’s Environmental Failures

Author:
Peter S. Germanos and Samara Azzi
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
For decades, Lebanon has suffered under a systematic and intentional mismanagement of country resources and capital, with devastating repercussions. Poverty rates in Lebanon have skyrocketed, and the healthcare and education systems have crumbled, leaving millions vulnerable. Less discussed but no less dangerous is the environmental degradation that the country’s elite have allowed to occur. Lebanon’s deteriorating environment adds another layer of tragedy to the widespread economic crisis; sewage contaminates drinking water, generators spew toxic fumes, excessive groundwater usage renders it saline, and irrigation with sewage water contaminates agricultural produce. The price for Lebanese is becoming increasingly well documented. Cancer cases have surged, and the Lebanese people can expect to continue to suffer in the future as well. This situation was not, however, a foregone conclusion, or due solely to global climate change outside of Lebanese control. Rather, Lebanon’s significant environmental degradation is due in large part to systemic corruption and a total lack of effective regulation. Understanding the scope of this issue is vital to realizing what the people of Lebanon are facing, along with developing a plan to address some of these interconnected environmental and governance challenges.
Topic:
Corruption, Environment, International Cooperation, Pollution, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

150. Jordan’s Escalating Border Threats Amid Regional Upheaval

Author:
Abdullah Hayek and Ahmad Sharawi
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 8, the Royal Jordanian Air Force conducted strikes against suspected drug dealers and warehouses in Syria, their fourth such operation in recent months. The strikes occurred amid military reports of increased smuggling attempts—primarily involving drugs, but also weapons—across the kingdom’s northern border. Between January and August 2023 alone, a total of 194 smuggling and infiltration attempts were recorded, 88 of them involving drones. Some cross-border incidents have resulted in clashes with Jordanian security personnel, including three recent episodes: a December 12 clash in which one soldier was killed; a December 18 battle that lasted more than ten hours and marked the first seizure of antitank weaponry on the border; and a January 6 clash in which five smugglers were killed and fifteen arrested. Jordanian military officials attribute each of these attempts to pro-Iran proxy groups in Syria. Moreover, the increasingly advanced arms that smugglers are using—including rocket-propelled grenades, mines, and drones—have led Jordanian officials to conclude that these criminal endeavors pose a wider threat to national security. Greater U.S. assistance would reinforce the kingdom’s efforts to address this threat at a time of wider regional crisis.
Topic:
National Security, Border Control, Syrian War, Borders, Drug Trafficking, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Jordan