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52. Popular Organizing is the Only Way to Stop Bolsonarismo
- Author:
- Sabrina Fernandes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The essence of the phenomenon tied to Jair Bolsonaro’s rise is extreme, and it is a potent force for radicalizing people towards authoritarian and violent positions.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Radicalization, Violence, Jair Bolsonaro, and Community Organizing
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
53. “The Major Challenge to Brazilian Democracy Today Is Bolsonarismo”
- Author:
- Michael Fox
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the wake of the attack on Brasília, both the Lula administration and civil society have a major role to play in combatting the forces propelling Brazil’s far right.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Domestic Politics, Far Right, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
54. Brasília and Washington
- Author:
- Chris N. Lesser
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Beyond the parallels with the U.S. Capitol riot, the latest assault on Brazil’s democracy is marked by Washington’s long history of anti-democratic foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democracy, Jair Bolsonaro, January 6, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America
55. Despite Indigenous Resistance, Mexico Authorizes Mining Concessions in Protected Areas
- Author:
- Santiago Navarro F.
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- President Andrés Manuel López Obrador entered office promising not to grant new mining licenses. But concessions have been authorized in Indigenous territories.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Mining, Indigenous, Resistance, and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Mexico, and North America
56. Indigenous Protesters Campaign to Make "Chineo" A Hate Crime in Argentina
- Author:
- Carole Concha Bell
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Women and Indigenous groups denounce widespread sexual violence perpetrated against Indigenous girls and women in northern Argentina.
- Topic:
- Women, Protests, Sexual Violence, Indigenous, Girls, and Hate Crimes
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Latin America
57. Honduran Women Leaders in the Crosshairs
- Author:
- Laura Blume, Diana Meza, and Piper Heath
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Amid a widespread culture of impunity, women public figures are killed in Honduras at an alarming rate.
- Topic:
- Women, Leadership, Impunity, and Targeted Killing
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Central America, and Honduras
58. A Legacy of Canadian Intervention in Haiti, 20 Years On
- Author:
- Jean Saint-Vil
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- As Canada and other foreign powers consider renewed intervention in Haiti, the history of the Ottawa Initiative offers an urgent reminder of the catastrophic consequences.
- Topic:
- Colonialism, Crisis Management, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Canada, Caribbean, and Haiti
59. El Salvador Arrests Prominent Anti-Mining Activists
- Author:
- Giada Ferrucci and Pedro Cabezas
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The government of Nayib Bukele opens civil war wounds by arresting five water defenders linked to the historic community of Santa Marta, raising speculation about a possible reversal of the country’s metals mining ban.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Mining, Land Rights, Activism, Arbitrary Detentions, and State of Emergency
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Central America, and El Salvador
60. Is Colombia One Step Away from a Fracking Ban?
- Author:
- César Rodríguez
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- While lawmakers debate a proposed fracking prohibition, deepening struggles over the social and environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction loom.
- Topic:
- Environment, Oil, Gas, Legislation, Wealth Extraction, and Fracking
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Latin America
61. Chile’s New Constitutional Process Shifts to the Right
- Author:
- Cathy Schneider and Sofía Williamson-García
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Hollowed-out political parties and the legacy of dictatorship once again leave Chile’s constitutional process hindered by a crisis of representation.
- Topic:
- Constitution, Domestic Politics, Representation, and Dictatorship
- Political Geography:
- South America and Chile
62. Brazil’s First-Ever Ministry of Indigenous Peoples Launched Amid a State of Emergency
- Author:
- Daniela Rebello
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Among the historic ministry's first challenges are a large-scale gold mining crackdown and an investigation of genocide against the Yanomami people.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Domestic Politics, Mining, Indigenous, and State of Emergency
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
63. War in Ukraine: One Year On, Nowhere Safe
- Author:
- Nichita Gurcov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, ACLED records nearly 40,000 political violence events across the country. Three-quarters of these events are shelling, artillery, and missile strikes mostly affecting the northeastern, eastern, and southern regions of Ukraine. Quantifying the civilian toll of the conflict presents a challenge – especially in areas continuously engulfed by violence, like eastern Ukraine. In areas under Russian occupation, reports of abductions, forced disappearances, torture, and extrajudicial executions have been widespread, though the scale of violence against civilians becomes known only upon the liberation of territories, evidenced in the case of northern Ukraine and especially the Kyiv suburbs. Meanwhile, long-range strikes, including those deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure, pose a permanent threat and continue to induce extreme hardship for communities even farther afield from the frontline.
- Topic:
- War Crimes, Conflict, Civilians, Russia-Ukraine War, and Threat Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
64. Political Repression in Cuba Ahead of the 2023 Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Sandra Pellegrini and Ana Marco
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 26 March 2023, voters will elect 470 deputies to Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s Power, who, in addition to fulfilling legislative functions during their five-year term, will be nominating Cuba’s next head of state. The government has characterized Cuba’s political system as a grassroots democracy, where candidacies to the parliament largely emerge from municipal authorities and are approved by the National Candidate Commission, a body composed of social organizations, such as labor unions and student associations.1 In practice, however, Cuba’s electoral process has been criticized for blocking the opposition’s access to power. Notably, the Council for Democratic Transition in Cuba, a platform created by opposition members to promote pluralism, freedom, and human rights, has called voters to boycott the upcoming elections after pro-government supporters reportedly prevented several opposition candidates from running in the November 2022 municipal elections.2
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Repression, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean
65. Actor Profile: The March 23 Movement (M23)
- Author:
- Ladd Serwat
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The March 23 Movement (M23) — Mouvement du 23 Mars in French — is an armed group operating in Nord Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with alleged backing from the Rwandan government. The roots of the M23 go back to the disrupted integration process of Rwandophone militants following the Congo Wars, splitting those willing to return to Rwanda and others desiring to stay in DRC.1 Many fighters remained in Nord Kivu province to form the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) under the leadership of a former Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) militant, Laurent Nkunda. A precursor to the M23, the CNDP claimed to protect Congolese Tutsi and received Rwandan support.2 The M23’s name comes from the failed negotiation process between the CNDP and the Congolese government on 23 March 2009.3
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Non State Actors, and Armed Forces
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo
66. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Sustained Resurgence in Yemen or Signs of Further Decline?
- Author:
- Emile Roy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In the first two months of 2023, suspected United States drone strikes killed two senior leaders of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen’s Marib governorate. One of the group’s top explosives experts, a Yemeni citizen named Husayn Hadbul (also known as Hassan al-Hadrami), was killed on 30 January. The group’s media chief and leader of the group’s Shura Council, Saudi citizen Hamad al-Tamimi (also known as Abu Abd al-Aziz al-Adnani), was killed on 26 February. These strikes on high-profile AQAP leaders took place amid a resurgence of AQAP activity in Yemen, which started during the United Nations-mediated truce between Houthi and anti-Houthi forces that lasted from April to the beginning of October 2022, and that has informally held to this date.1 The lull in fighting between Houthi and anti-Houthi forces induced by the truce allowed for a broader political and military reconfiguration within the anti-Houthi camp. At the political level, former President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi was replaced by an eight-member Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) to enhance coordination among anti-Houthi forces. Armed militias affiliated with the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) and other United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed forces exploited the new situation to gain control over territory in southern Yemen. As part of this territorial expansion, STC forces spearheaded several offensives against AQAP beginning in August 2022, leading to a sudden rise in AQAP activity in 2022.2 However, the nature of this overall increase is disputed, with some analysts arguing that it is a sign of AQAP’s weakness rather than its strength.3
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Conflict, Houthis, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
67. Anti-Government Demonstrations in Iran: A Long-Term Challenge for the Islamic Republic
- Author:
- Dana Sammy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Iran was rocked by mass demonstrations triggered by the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini — a young Kurdish woman — while in the custody of the Guidance Patrol (also known as the ‘morality police’) for allegedly violating the hijab dress code. Protests over the mandatory hijab rule soon coalesced around a wide range of grievances with the regime, with participants demanding protections for civil, political, and human rights and calling for an end to the Islamic Republic. Although street demonstrations have subsided for the time being, how the protest movement will evolve — and how it will impact the stability of the Islamic Republic — remains an open question. This report explores potential answers to this question by examining notable trends and implications of the wave of demonstrations that unfolded in the country between September and December 2022. It argues that several emerging aspects of the nationwide movement may pose a long-term challenge to the regime. The demonstrations following Amini’s death were not only unique in regard to their geographical spread and longevity, but also in the way they brought together different segments of society with both distinct and overlapping grievances. Moreover, amid a harsh crackdown by Iranian authorities, engagement in violence by demonstrators has trended upward: between mid-September and December 2022, ACLED records the highest number of violent demonstration events for any round of nationwide demonstrations in Iran since the beginning of data collection in 2016. The increased use of Molotov cocktails and the killing of dozens of security personnel are among the most significant trends in demonstration violence observed in the latest round of events. The demonstrations did not reach a critical mass necessary to pose an immediate threat to the survival of the regime. Yet, this latest round in a sequence of increasingly violent demonstrations is indicative of growing resentment in Iranian society against the ruling elites and a willingness to express it forcefully despite severe repression. As the regime refuses to reform, the growing frequency and intensity of demonstrations suggests that the government will find itself in an increasingly unstable domestic position and increasingly isolated in the international arena.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, Women, State Violence, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
68. Actor Profile: The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)
- Author:
- Sandra Pellegrini and María Fernanda Arocha
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) is a Mexican criminal group that emerged as a splinter group of the Milenio Cartel – one of the Sinaloa Cartel’s allies – after the capture of its leader in 2009 led to internal divisions.1 Initially, the group operated as an armed wing of the Sinaloa Cartel. As part of this alliance, it engaged in a deadly turf war against Los Zetas in Veracruz state, where the group stood out for its use of violence and involvement in numerous massacres.2 Under the leadership of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as El Mencho, the CJNG grew as an independent organization and one of the most powerful actors in Mexico’s criminal underworld. Rivaling its erstwhile ally, the Sinaloa Cartel, the CJNG turned from an armed wing into a complex drug-producing and trafficking structure, which supplies markets across the globe.3 It has diversified its activities and sources of income, relying on extortion, kidnapping, human trafficking, illegal mining, and oil theft,4 such as the capture of the avocado and oil trade in Michoacán and Guanajuato states.5 To support its growth and international ambitions, the CJNG has expanded its presence to at least 27 of Mexico’s 32 states.6 The presence of the CJNG has often driven increased violence at the local level, notably in areas of territorial dispute with other criminal groups.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Violence, Organized Crime, and Cartels
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
69. Turkey’s 2023 General Elections and the Kurdish Question
- Author:
- Ameneh Mehvar and Berk Özlü
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The most consequential elections in Turkey’s recent history are set to be held on 14 May, when Turkish citizens will elect a new president alongside a new parliament. An ideologically disparate coalition of six opposition parties, ranging from secularists, to Islamic conservatives, and Turkish nationalists, have joined forces under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu to unseat Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan has been in power for 20 years, initially as prime minister and then as president since 2014.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Minorities, Elections, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
70. The Normalization of Political Violence and the 2023 Legislative Elections in Greece
- Author:
- Niki Papadogiannaki and Vicky Yiagopoulou
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Elections in Greece come less than three months after the deadly head-on train collision at Tempe in the north of the country that killed 57 passengers. The incident on 28 February triggered demonstrations against the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, chastising him for initially blaming the collision on “tragic human error.”1 The unrest that followed caused the government to delay announcing the election date, which had been anticipated in April. Due to a new voting law, the elections will be held under a proportional representation system, wherein the leading party needs to secure at least 46% to have a chance to win absolute majority in parliament. However, this percentage has not been reached in the last three decades,2 making a clear victory on 21 May unlikely.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
71. The Muqawama and Its Enemies: Shifting Patterns in Iran-Backed Shiite Militia Activity in Iraq
- Author:
- Luca Nevola and Miran Feyli
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The post-2003 security landscape in Iraq has seen the proliferation of dozens of militias identifying with Shiite Islam. Many of these actors are integrated into the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) – a paramilitary group established in 2014 to counter the Islamic State and later incorporated into the Iraqi state forces – and have strong relations with the Iranian regime and its security apparatus.1 These Iran-backed groups include prominent militias such as Kataib Hizbullah (KH), Asaib Ahl al-Haqq (AAH), and Haraka Hizbullah al-Nujaba (HHN), as well as a number of recently formed ‘facade groups’ like Ashab al-Kahf and Qasim al-Jabarin. Such facade groups are generally assumed to operate on behalf of KH, AAH, and HHN (see graph below). These groups are notable for portraying themselves as the Muqawama, or the ‘resistance’ against the United States and other foreign forces.
- Topic:
- Security, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Militias
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
72. European Security and Defence: Don’t Get Your Hopes Up Just Yet
- Author:
- Adaja Stoetman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- “2022 will be the year of European defence”.[1] These were the words of European Council President Charles Michel in October 2021. When he gave his speech at the Charlemagne Prize Award Ceremony in Aachen, no one expected that his statement would materialise in the way it did. Yes, headway was to be expected with the adoption of the Strategic Compass and European countries demonstrating commitment to investing more in defence cooperation. Although there is still a world of difference between ambitions and reality, the degree of progress accomplished in the past twelve months was not foreseen.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Politics, European Union, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe
73. The War against Ukraine and Russia’s Position in Europe’s Security Order
- Author:
- Stephen Blank
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Russia’s aggressions against its neighbours since 2008 – first Georgia, then Ukraine twice – impel the urgent reconstruction of European security. While articulating a post-war European security order and Russia’s place there is easy, implementing it is extremely difficult. Nevertheless, in Ukraine, Russia has unilaterally, and unprovokedly, violated or broken at least eight major international treaties and accords, ranging from the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, according to which Moscow had pledged to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, to the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty, which prohibits nuclear threats against non-nuclear states.[1] It has also broken NATO’s (and especially Washington’s) conventional deterrence.[2]
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
74. Turkey vis-à-vis Russia’s War against Ukraine
- Author:
- Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Characterising Turkey’s policy towards Russia’s war on Ukraine is not an easy task. Elements of both support for Ukraine and neutrality have emerged in the past year. An analysis of the fundamentals of Turkey–US relations and Russia–Turkey relations is thus helpful.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States of America
75. Diplomacy and the War against Ukraine
- Author:
- Ferdinando Nelli Feroci
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Normally, diplomacy is meant as the set of rules and processes that preside over international relations to prevent or resolve disputes and conflicts, or even as a special skill in dealing with complex issues and finding compromises. If this is the case, one may be tempted to conclude that diplomacy has so far failed with respect to the year-long conflict in Ukraine. But perhaps it is worth analysing the issue more closely.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
76. The War against Ukraine and Its Lessons for NATO Militaries: Food for Thought
- Author:
- Alessandro Marrone
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- One year of full-fledged conventional war fought on the European continent between two large countries, including a nuclear power, is obviously a historical watershed for NATO and the whole Euro-Atlantic area, whose strategic implications are yet to be fully assessed. The conflict has already destroyed a number of expectations widely shared in Western Europe, including the ideas that Putin would not have invaded the whole of Ukraine, that Western sanctions would have paralysed his ability to wage a prolonged military campaign, or that Europeans would have diminished their military support to Ukraine over the first wartime winter. Given the ongoing “fog of war” and uncertainty about future scenarios, it is perhaps too early to identify lessons for allies and their militaries. Still, the following elements may be considered food for thought for the Western defence policy communities, cum grano salis.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Military Affairs, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
77. The Existential Value of Ukraine’s Freedom
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned the international spotlight back onto the value of democracy and the contrast between liberal democracies and authoritarian systems. However, it has done so by adding nuance and emotional power to what was previously a rather sterile debate. When Joe Biden was elected President of the United States, putting an end – at least for the time being – to the traumatic years for US democracy epitomised by Donald Trump’s presidency, international politics reacquired a distinctively normative, if not ideological, taste. Powers like Russia and China should be opposed, not “only” because of their aggressive or unfair behaviour – be it in the South China Sea, Taiwan, Ukraine, cyber, energy, technology or trade – but because that malign behaviour, so the argument went, is intrinsically linked to the nature of their political systems: it’s democracy versus autocracy, stupid.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Democracy, Freedom, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
78. Italy’s Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Nona Mikhelidze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In line with the EU’s policy, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and current Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have taken a strong stance in response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine by firmly condemning the invasion and offering their full support for Kyiv’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy
79. Reach for the Stars: Bridging Italy’s Potential in Space with Its Foreign and Security Policy
- Author:
- Karolina Muti
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Italian capabilities, expertise and potential in the space sector are not widely known. Among state actors, Rome has actually been a pioneer in the field, boasting a long tradition that started in 1964 when Italy became the third country, after the Soviet Union and the United States, to send a nationally manufactured satellite into orbit.[1] From an industrial standpoint, Italy is among the few countries whose companies cover the whole space value chain.[2] In Europe, Rome is ranked second for total number of assets in orbit and is currently the third contributor to the European Space Agency (ESA).[3] An Italian astronaut, Samantha Cristoforetti, has recently become the first European woman to take command of the International Space Station (ISS).[4]
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Space
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
80. Actor Profile: The Islamic State Sahel Province
- Author:
- Heni Nsaibia
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel) is a salafi-jihadist militant group and the Sahelian affiliate of the transnational Islamic State (IS) organization. It is primarily active in the border areas between Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — known as the tri-state border area, or Liptako-Gourma — but it has also engaged in sporadic activity in Algeria, Benin, and Nigeria. The group’s composition reflects the social fabric in the areas where it is active. Its members belong to the Fulani, Arab, Tuareg, Dawsahak, Songhai, and Djerma ethnic groups, although its core leadership was historically composed of Western Saharan militants.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Sahel
81. Beyond Riyadh: Houthi Cross-Border Aerial Warfare 2015-2022
- Author:
- Luca Nevola
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 25 March 2022, the Houthis launched a large-scale attack on Saudi Arabia using a combination of loitering munitions, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. This coordinated attack targeted oil refineries and energy infrastructure across Saudi territory, from Asir to the Eastern Province, and even threatened the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Jeddah. Yet, it turned out to be the last major gasp of the aerial war between Riyadh and the Sanaa-based government that had started in 2015. A few days later, on 2 April, a United Nations (UN)-mediated truce came into effect, which lasted until 2 October and, as of the time of writing, has effectively terminated Houthi cross-border attacks into Saudi and Emirati territories. In the current situation of relative stability, Saudi-Houthi talks are ongoing to renew and expand the truce.
- Topic:
- Deterrence, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia
82. ACLED Year in Review Global Disorder in 2022
- Author:
- Timothy Lay
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine escalated the war to a level that dwarfed all other conflicts in 2022, both in the sheer scale of violence and its deadliness. It also obscured a significant overall deterioration of the security situation in most other regions worldwide. Driven by heightened levels of conflict in both new and longstanding hotspots, political violence increased substantially over the course of the year. While 2022 saw some positive developments – including a significant reduction in total violent events in places like Afghanistan and Yemen after years of war – these gains only represent qualified improvements. Despite the aggregate decline in events in Afghanistan and Yemen, for example, they remain home to two of the most complex and severe conflict environments in the world. Globally, political violence targeting civilians became not only more common but also more deadly in 2022, underscoring the fact that it is civilian communities that are increasingly shouldering the burden of rising conflict levels around the world.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Civilians, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, Ukraine, Yemen, and Global Focus
83. Deadly Rio de Janeiro: Armed Violence and the Civilian Burden
- Author:
- Bhavani Castro and Julia Links Franciotti
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The public security situation in Brazil is complicated, and particularly in Rio de Janeiro state, which has high levels of violence and criminality. The presence of multiple different criminal groups fighting for territory, coupled with abusive government measures to tackle criminal activity, has created a deadly, high-risk environment for civilians in the state. In 2021, Rio de Janeiro registered 27 violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, a rate lower than states like Bahia and Ceará but significantly higher than the national average of 22. Rio de Janeiro also ranked first among Brazilian states in the number of deaths recorded during police interventions, with at least 1,356 people reportedly killed.1 In May 2021, for example, a police operation against drug traffickers in the Jacarezinho community in Rio de Janeiro city resulted in 29 reported fatalities. While authorities claimed that all those killed in the operation were linked to criminal groups, witnesses reported that police officers entered civilian houses and carried out extrajudicial executions.2 The Jacarezinho operation was the deadliest single event recorded by ACLED in Brazil in 2021. A year later, in May 2022, military and federal police forces clashed with the Red Command (CV) in the Vila Cruzeiro community in the Penha Complex, resulting in at least 26 reported fatalities, including civilians. These are not isolated incidents, but rather indicative of the increasing lethality of violence in Rio de Janeiro in 2021 and 2022, and the rising threat to civilians.
- Topic:
- Crime, Elections, Violence, Civilians, Militias, Gangs, and Public Security
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Rio de Janeiro
84. Political Violence and the 2023 Nigerian Election
- Author:
- Andrea Carboni and Ladd Serwat
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 25 February 2023, Nigerians will elect a new president, vice president, and members of the National Assembly. Term limit legislation bars President Muhammadu Buhari from running for a third term, and the end of his presidency marks the longest democratic stretch since independence. Eighteen candidates are vying for the presidency, and at least 4,223 candidates are running for the 469 seats in the National Assembly.1 The presidential frontrunners include Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate who has surprisingly led in the pre-election polls. Two weeks after the national election, on 11 March 2023, 28 out of 36 states will also elect a new governor, with 17 incumbent governors reaching their term limits and hence barred from re-running.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
85. Anti-Government Demonstrations and Separatism in Thailand: Political Disorder Trends Ahead of the 2023 General Election
- Author:
- Vasan Chen, Pam B., Fiona Wong, and Elliott Bynum
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- With the general election in Thailand anticipated in May 2023, tensions that have sparked unrest in the country in previous years remain unresolved, despite declines in particular types of political violence and demonstration events in the past year. Political disorder in Thailand ranges from violence involving separatists in the Deep South to demonstrations over the continued presence of the monarchy and the military in politics. Following an increase in 2021, political violence involving separatists in the Deep South had been on the wane in 2022 until attacks in August caused a significant spike. Meanwhile, amid ongoing judicial harassment under the lèse-majesté law that criminalizes criticizing the monarchy, anti-government demonstrations calling for an end to the monarchy and the military in politics declined in 2022 compared to the previous two years. Yet the tensions underlying the street protests – as evidenced by the uptick in demonstrations in November during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and the hunger strike initiated earlier this year by two activists charged under the lèse-majesté law – have not been put to rest. The stage is set for the possible reemergence of demonstrations and disorder in Thailand around the upcoming election this year. Drawing on new data,1 this report examines political violence and demonstration trends under the administration of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the leader of the 2014 military coup, from the previous general election in March 2019 to the end of 2022.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Separatism, Demonstrations, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Thailand and Southeast Asia
86. The Ukraine effect: demise or rebirth of the global order?
- Author:
- Bobo Lo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sharpened the commitment of Western governments to a liberal vision of international order. But it is a different story elsewhere. Many countries, particularly in the Global South, regard the rules-based order as an artificial Western construct, and the Ukraine war as a matter of geopolitics rather than norms and principles. Events in Ukraine have reinforced Washington’s views about two competing visions of global order — one democratic, the other autocratic. However, such binarism has little resonance beyond the West. For the Global South, the divide that matters is with the Global North. This is not only about relative influence and status in the international system, but also diverging priorities. A rules-based international order is achievable, but not as commonly imagined in the West. The post-Cold War template of unalloyed US global leadership and Western-dominated institutions is no longer tenable. The only viable order is one that is more inclusive and representative, reflecting a world where power is increasingly diffuse, and global cooperation is critical in meeting threats such as climate change and human insecurity.
- Topic:
- Multilateralism, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
87. Chips, subsidies, security, and great power competition
- Author:
- John Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Government subsidies to industry in leading economies are large and growing, with potentially deep, wide-ranging, and unpredictable consequences for the world. It is not clear what rules, if any, will apply in this new era of industry competition, nor whether the measures will be effective in denying frontier technology to rival economies. The impacts of industry subsidies and export controls, including for countries such as Australia, hang on their implementation — beneficial in so far as they speed tech innovation, but detrimental if they split the global economy into competing blocs.
- Topic:
- Security, Economy, Subsidies, Competition, and Microchips
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Global Focus
88. Southeast Asia Aid Map - Key Findings Report
- Author:
- Alexandre Dayant, Grace Stanhope, and Roland Rajah
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Official development finance plays an important role in financing Southeast Asia’s development, equivalent to around 10% of total government development spending in the region. China is Southeast Asia’s single largest development partner and leads infrastructure financing. Yet, implementation problems have seen the scale of China’s financing decline in recent years. Traditional development partners collectively still dominate development financing in Southeast Asia at 80% of the total. The multilateral development banks lead the way, followed by Japan, Europe, and South Korea. The United States and Australia are mid-sized players. India and the Middle East have become notable sources of non-traditional development finance, with the Islamic Development Bank playing an important role. Climate development finance is increasing, but Southeast Asia will need more support if it is to transition towards resilient, low-carbon development. Intraregional development cooperation is growing, but only makes up a small part of development finance in Southeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Finance, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
89. Australia’s Role Supporting Democracies as a Middle Power
- Author:
- Michael J. Green and Victoria Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Michael J. Green (Professor and CEO of the United States Study Centre (USSC) in Sydney) and Victoria Cooper (Research Editor at the USSC) analyze Australia’s strengths as a middle power in the face of Beijing’s pressure campaign, and offer areas of regional cooperation that like-minded countries, including Australia, can build upon in order to defend democracy against authoritarian regimes. While acknowledging the limited capacity of Australia to independently counter Beijing’s illiberal behavior, the authors argue that through the expansion of development initiatives, promotion of women’s empowerment, and anti-corruption drives, Canberra can play a key role in leading multilateral efforts to promote democratic resilience in the region.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Statecraft, Middle Power, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Australia
90. Shifting Paradigms: The Rise of the Move Forward Party and the Changing Face of Thai Democracy
- Author:
- Napon Jatusripitak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In light of the 2023 general election in Thailand that delivered a surprise victory for the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP), Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting research fellow at the ISEAS ? Yusof Ishak Institute, analyzes the shifting political dynamics in the country and explains the key to MFP’s success. With the election outcome reflecting public’s heightened awareness and desire for political participation and citizen engagement, Thai politics seems prepared for transition from the conservative status quo. Nevertheless, Jatusripitak emphasizes that a sustainable change in domestic governance depends on the MFP’s capacity to carry out the drive for democracy and the conservative establishment’s willingness to accept and adjust.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, Social Media, Political Parties, and Civic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Thailand and Southeast Asia
91. The Demise of ‘Hybrid’ Democracy in Pakistan: Case of Ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Arrest
- Author:
- Haider Kaleem
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Following the arrest of Pakistan`s former Prime Minister Imran Khan, social unrest and civil-military tension continue to grip the country. Haider Kaleem, a development researcher and journalist in Pakistan, attributes the current democratic crisis to the longstanding practice of military intervention in the country`s political affairs. Pointing out that the general mass is not adequately represented in the political discussions, Kaleem argues that Pakistan`s democracy will remain impaired until the power to form or dismantle regimes is transferred from the military to the hands of the people.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Domestic Politics, Civil-Military Relations, Civil Unrest, and Imran Khan
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
92. Recent Defamation Case and Mounting State Onslaughts Against Political Opposition in India
- Author:
- Niranjan Sahoo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Niranjan Sahoo, a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), assesses the current state of political opposition in India. Highlighting the recent defamation case against the key opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, Sahoo points out that the current Bharatiya Janata Party government has consistently deployed state agencies and has taken advantage of its brute majority in the lower house of Parliament to weaken and silence the opposition voice. Questioning the sustainability of this rare occasion of unity among the opposition parties over Mr. Gandhi`s disqualification, Sahoo paints a grim outlook for India’s democracy should the marginalization of opposition voices continue.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Domestic Politics, Narendra Modi, Opposition, and Defamation
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
93. Japan’s Gradual Move to Address Technological Challenges to Democracy
- Author:
- Maiko Ichihara
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Maiko Ichihara, a professor at Hitotsubashi University Graduate School of Law, explores the challenges that technological advancements pose to democracy and analyzes Japan’s recent efforts to regulate disinformation and protect private data. Despite the absence of global regulations on digital technology, Ichihara highlights Japan’s domestic fact-checking efforts as well as its multilateral initiatives with G7 to create action plans promoting international cooperation against disinformation and data privacy abuse. In order to bolster democracy in the digital realm, she advocates for a proactive development of counter-narratives to fake news on social media.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Democracy, Regulation, Privacy, Social Media, G7, Disinformation, Data Collection, and Digital Space
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
94. Upcoming Elections and Political Turmoil in Pakistan
- Author:
- Ahmed Bilal Mehboob
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- As the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) delayed a key provincial election due to financial and security-related issues, a potential constitutional crisis looms over the country. In light of the deepening political turmoil in Pakistan, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob explores how this crisis has developed and offers a grim outlook of holding a free and fair election this year. Mehboob argues that the former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s audacious move to seek fresh elections to both the National and Provincial Assemblies have exacerbated party polarization, and Supreme Court decisions for the court cases are unlikely to be fully enforced due to such divide. Mehboob warns that prolonged political crisis may induce military intervention to restore order so that the elections could be pushed ahead.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, Constitution, Domestic Politics, Supreme Court, and Imran Khan
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
95. Indonesia’s ASEAN Chairmanship: Challenges for Strengthening Democracy Agenda in ASEAN
- Author:
- Lidya C. Sinaga
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Lidya Christin Sinaga analyzes the internal and external challenges that Indonesia, as the Chair of ASEAN, faces in promoting the principles of democracy in the organization`s agenda. Sinaga claims that the recent cases of Indonesia`s democratic regression have damaged the credibility of its sincerity in spreading democracy in Southeast Asia. On the other end, the ASEAN member states’ growing emphasis on economic performance as their source of legitimacy complicates the regional organization`s commitment to democratic values. Given that the ASEAN has limited influence on its member states’ respective political 시스템s, whether Indonesia can successfully implement democratic agenda this year depends on the extent of the members’ willingness to engage in meaningful political communication. Finally, Sinaga argues that bolstering commitment to democracy within the ASEAN can only be successful when every member states recognize that democratic principles are critical for regional prosperity.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Economy, ASEAN, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
96. Institutionalizing Downward Accountability: The Bangladesh Experience
- Author:
- Shaheen Anam
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In this issue briefing, Shaheen Anam, Executive Director at Manusher Jonno Foundation, explores the challenges of institutionalizing downward accountability and assesses how such difficulties are projected in development projects of various sizes. Anam argues that effective bottom-up planning requires expertise of stakeholders, strong political will from above, and most importantly, active participation of the local community. Through a Bangladesh case study, Anam offers a successful example of the civil society taking advantage of social accountability tools to channel its voice and improve the transparency of the authorities.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Government, Accountability, Institutions, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
97. Restoring Democracy in Myanmar: A Call for Bolstered Anti-Junta Resistance Forces
- Author:
- Lin Htet Myat
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- February 2023 marks the second anniversary of the military coup in Myanmar that ousted its civilian government and cracked down on democratic protests. Lin Htet Myat, a political analyst from Myanmar, assesses the grim situation in the country and offers new approaches that both the international community and the Burmese anti-junta forces should take to facilitate the restoration of democracy. The author argues that the international community must not engage the junta to seek for a peaceful resolution, and instead strengthen material support and communication with anti-junta forces within Myanmar. Meanwhile, Burmese democratic resistance forces should bolster military cooperation among like-minded groups and build trust in preparation for a federal democratic Myanmar.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Coup, Humanitarian Crisis, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Myanmar
98. Taiwan’s Civic Space Threatened by Chinese Misinformation and the Government’s Worrisome Legislative Responses
- Author:
- Chin-en Wu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Civic space in Taiwan is consistently threatened by misinformation campaigns and operations run by external forces, particularly mainland China. Chin-en Wu, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica, assesses that China disseminates fake news to portray positive image of itself while creating internal polarization and competition in Taiwan. The Taiwanese government has attempted to take various measures, such as amending the Social Order Maintenance Act and introducing social media regulation bill, to counter the rampant Chinese misinformation activities. Although Wu acknowledges that the Taiwanese government should collaborate with the civil society to safeguard the island from misinformation, Wu warns that the government must be conscious of the potential damage that the restrictive measures against fake news could inflict on Taiwan’s liberal democracy.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Social Media, Misinformation, and Civic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan and Asia
99. Expanding International Cooperation against Corruption in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Sook-Jong Lee
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In light of the Indo-Pacific regional meeting of the 2nd Summit for Democracy (S4D2) (hosted by South Korea) choosing to discuss matters on corruption, Dr. Sook Jong Lee, a Professor at Sungkyunkwan University and a Senior Fellow at EAI, evaluates the state of corruption within the region. Despite persistent and wide-spread efforts to tackle the malignant effects of corruption, Dr. Lee points out that progress has been slow, especially due to the dominance of grand corruption and preserving independence for anti-corruption institutions. Lee concludes by suggesting that, with the Summit as a launch pad, leaders should look into the creation of a network of anti-corruption bodies to boost international cooperation, capacity building, and promoting independence.
- Topic:
- Corruption, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Indo-Pacific
100. One Thing It Lacks: South Korea’s North Korea Policy in 2023 National Security Strategy
- Author:
- Yang Gyu Kim
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Yang Gyu Kim, Principal Researcher at the East Asia Institute, conducts a critical analysis of the new National Security Strategy published on June 7, 2023 and offers policy recommendations for the ROK government’s DPRK policy outlined in the document. While Kim identifies with the National Security Office’s emphasis on strengthening deterrence measures against growing DPRK nuclear and missile threats, he highlights that South Korean countermeasures create a feedback loop that affects North Korea’s threat perception. The author, therefore, points out the limits of the current 3D (Deterrence, Dissuasion, Dialogue) approach and recommends including a “Development” strategy to encourage Pyongyang to envision an alternative future path of prosperity and voluntarily take the denuclearization path.
- Topic:
- Development, National Security, Deterrence, Dialogue, and Threat Perception
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea