Content Type: Commentary and Analysis / Political Geography: United States of America / Publication Year: within 25 Years and within 5 Years

1. The Perfect Storm: Trump and USA 2024

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Donald Trump casts a long shadow over the upcoming presidential – and congressional – elections in the United States. It is a menacing shadow, not only for what the former president could do if he returned to office but also because the political and institutional balances of the United States are threatened by the repercussions of his many legal troubles, the latest of which could even see him excluded from the race for the White House.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2. The Venezuela-Guyana Dispute over the Essequibo

Author:: Rafael Ramírez
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The Essequibo[1] is a territory located in the North-East of South America, between Venezuela and Guyana, with a maritime projection towards the Atlantic. It has been part of Venezuela since 1777[2] under the rule of the Spanish Empire and then as the Republic of Venezuela since 1810. The United Kingdom illegally occupied it in 1814,[3] while Venezuela was going through a long and bloody war of independence. The UK tried to formalise the dispossession of the territory with the Paris Arbitral Award of 3 October 1899,[4] in a flawed process in which Venezuela was represented by the United States. The British Empire exercised its power to obtain a ruling in its favour. After the death of the lawyer Severo Mallet-Prevost in 1949, who represented Venezuela in this process, these irregularities became public knowledge.[5] In 1962, Venezuela denounced the nullity of the process before the United Nations and insisted on its historical claim.[6] On 17 February 1966, Venezuela and the UK signed the Geneva Agreement,[7] whereby the parties recognised the nullity of the Paris Arbitral Award and agreed to search for a negotiated solution. During this process, Guyana (independent since May 1966) would administer the Essequibo but without carrying out any activity that would modify the legal situation of the territory as established in Article V of the agreement, which states that “No acts or activities taking place while this Agreement is in force shall constitute a basis for asserting, supporting or denying a claim to territorial sovereignty in the territories of Venezuela or British Guiana or create any rights of sovereignty in those territories”. After four years, no progress was made in the negotiation, so on 18 June 1970, the two parties signed the Port of Spain Protocol,[8] to suspend the meetings for twelve years and to possibly use as an alternative one of the means of peaceful settlement provided for in the UN Charter.
Topic:: Oil, Territorial Disputes, History, and Borders
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, North America, Guyana, and United States of America

3. Turkey vis-à-vis Russia’s War against Ukraine

Author:: Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Characterising Turkey’s policy towards Russia’s war on Ukraine is not an easy task. Elements of both support for Ukraine and neutrality have emerged in the past year. An analysis of the fundamentals of Turkey–US relations and Russia–Turkey relations is thus helpful.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States of America

4. The United States Is Rapidly Losing Arab Hearts and Minds Through Gaza War, While Competitors Benefit

Author:: Munqith Dagher and Karl Kaltenthaler
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Throughout the fifteen years that following the 2011 withdrawal from Iraq, each American presidential administration has experienced domestic calls to leave the Middle East. However, each time these voices grew louder, a new regional variable emerged that compelled the American administration to return to its traditional role dictated by urgent strategic security and economic interests. After the withdrawal from Iraq, a strategic vacuum led to the emergence of and fight against ISIS, with the deaths of thousands both locally and internationally, and millions from the region displaced. The U.S. military was forced to return to the region to contribute to the efforts to eliminate ISIS. When this goal was declared completed, new regional threats emerged in the form of Iran and its weapons, which threatened not only America’s allies but also the free flow of global oil supplies. While the Biden administration thought this problem could be resolved through a package of incentives and agreements with Iran, the war in Gaza has emerged to confirm once again the error of U.S. assessments that contend that this region is no longer important to America’s strategic interests. According to the third section of the U.S. National Security Strategy document signed by President Biden in October 2022, America's top priority on the global stage is to surpass China, followed by limiting Russia's influence. The national security priorities also include combating terrorism in the Middle East.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Islamic State, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

5. Egypt’s Economic Freefall Provides an Opening for U.S. Assistance—and Leverage

Author:: Ben Fishman
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepares to visit Cairo on January 29-30, Egypt’s economy has been busy plummeting to new lows. Part of the blame can be laid on the twin shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, which disproportionately affected the country due to its heavy reliance on threatened resources such as wheat and tourism revenue from Russia and Ukraine. Yet the bulk of its struggles can be attributed to Cairo’s broad economic mismanagement under President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, which has included everything from currency manipulation to misplaced spending priorities, wasteful megaprojects, and undue state and military control over the economy. Since March 2022, Egypt’s currency has lost half its value and now stands at 30 pounds to the U.S. dollar—a drop spurred by the flight of dollars and the IMF’s requirement to adopt a flexible exchange rate. As a result, official inflation reached nearly 22% in December, fifteen points higher than it was at the end of 2021. Shortages are now frequent, and prices for basic goods have soared by nearly 40%. The rising cost of essential bread in particular will be difficult to maintain much longer. Meanwhile, the debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 95%, with a record $100 billion in loan payments due over the next four years. Egypt’s 2022-23 budget allocates over 50% to debt servicing and loan repayments, and this sky-high figure will only increase further over time because the loans are dollar-denominated.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Foreign Aid, Reform, and Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and United States of America

6. Preserving U.S. Military Advantages in the Middle East

Author:: Nathan P. Olsen
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) calls on the U.S. military to sustain enduring advantages and build new ones for the future fight. According to the NDS, building and maintaining advantages to advance U.S. national interests will allow the military to deter attacks against the United States and its allies and partners, while fostering a resilient military force and defense ecosystem. In the Middle East, this challenge is especially relevant. The United States has several enduring advantages that could eventually disappear if the U.S. government does not make significant changes in how it operates in this part of the world.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Strategic Competition, and Military
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

7. Sudan's Civil War: Mediation Challenges and the U.S. Role

Author:: Yasir Zaidan, Reem Abbas, and Alex Rondos
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Three experts assess the conflict’s effects on regional humanitarian and security issues, outlining the requirements for a durable ceasefire.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Civil War, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Egypt, and United States of America

8. Niger Coup Threatens U.S. Strategy on Counterterrorism and Russia

Author:: Ben Fishman, Anna Borshchevskaya, and Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 26, Nigerien president Mohamed Bazoum was detained by members of his special guard and put under house arrest, where he remains under harsh conditions. Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani has since declared himself head of the so-called “National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland” and appointed a twenty-one-person cabinet on August 8. The coup comes in the wake of military takeovers in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, and Sudan over the past three years, demonstrating regional anti-democratic trends amid trans-regional instability. Diplomatic efforts to quell the crisis have failed to date. U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken has made repeated calls to Bazoum, reflecting a commitment to securing his release and returning to “constitutional order.” Bazoum was a close American security partner prior to his arrest and was accorded a prominent role during the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington last December. Blinken has also reached out to former president Mahamadou Issoufou, who has better personal ties to the junta; he was once an ally of Bazoum but had recently broken with his successor’s anti-corruption initiatives. This call followed Acting Deputy Secretary Victoria Nuland’s unsuccessful August 8 visit to Niamey, where she was prohibited from meeting with Bazoum or Tchiani. Instead, she spoke with Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, a longtime U.S. security partner who serves as the military’s new chief of staff but would not offer so much as an assurance of Barzoum’s safety, let alone his release or restoration. With the junta rejecting all U.S. and regional diplomatic initiatives, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has threatened military intervention. The alliance’s leaders met on August 10 and agreed to deploy a standby force, though how quickly it can be assembled remains unclear. In neighboring Algeria, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune strongly condemned the junta but said any military intervention in Niger would represent “a direct threat” to his country, declaring, “There will be no solution without us. We are the first people affected.” In Libya—another neighbor keenly attuned to Niger’s stability given persistent smuggling—the Government of National Unity condemned the junta, while the eastern-based warlord Khalifa Haftar condemned the threats by ECOWAS. Elsewhere, Egypt has remained largely silent about the crisis, while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates quickly denounced the coup and called for Bazoum’s restoration (in part because he is Niger’s first Arab president). The UAE also sent some military vehicles to neighboring Chad, providing additional border security and signaling their growing bilateral relationship.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Strategic Competition, and Wagner Group
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, West Africa, Niger, and United States of America

9. Tasks for North Korea Policy After the Washington Declaration

Author:: Yu-hwan Koh
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Yu-hwan Koh, the President of the Korea Institute for National Unification, acknowledges the progress made in maintaining the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty regime and bolstering extended deterrence capabilities against North Korean nuclear threats through the Washington Declaration. Nevertheless, he underscores the lack of a fundamental solution to halt further advancements in Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities. Dr. Koh emphasizes the importance of establishing normalized relations between the United States and North Korea, particularly considering that North Korea now possesses nuclear weapons and is unlikely to return to denuclearization talks. In response, he reiterates the significance of the ROK-US alliance in strengthening the Three-Axis system and developing new weapon systems that can effectively counter North Korea's nuclear capabilities.
Topic:: International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, and United States of America

10. The South Korea-U.S. Summit and Measures to Enhance Bilateral Cooperation on North Korea

Author:: Jechun Kim
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Jechun Kim, a professor at Sogang University, points out that the Biden administration appears to prioritize competition with China, the Taiwan issue, and the Ukraine War, despite the growing threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities. In response, Kim underlines the importance of issuing a “2023 US-ROK Joint Statement on North Korea” after President Yoon’s visit to the White House. Given the fading interest and support for the reunification of the Korean Peninsula, Professor Kim emphasizes the significance of addressing the rapid advancement in DPRK’s nuclear capabilities. He then suggests that South Korea needs to create a conducive environment for peaceful reunification through strong support from the U.S. for the “Audacious Initiative.”
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

11. Russia’s Stance on the North Korean Narrative of a New Cold War

Author:: Seho Jang
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Seho Jang, a research fellow in the Institute for National Security Strategy, states that North Korea is promoting strategic solidarity with China and Russia to achieve its goal of dismantling US hegemony. While Russia also shares the perception that the US-centered unipolar order is not conducive to attaining its national interests, it rarely uses the term “new Cold War” in official foreign policy discourse, reflecting its apprehension about the concept and its potential implications. He evaluates that this caution possibly originated from Russia’s historical trauma as a loser of the Cold War, making it highly likely to be opposed to the emergence of the new Cold War order led by Washington and Beijing. Dr. Chang suggests that this subtle difference could become an important inflection point as Washington’s clout in international politics decreases in the future.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Multipolarity, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, North Korea, and United States of America

12. U.S. Stance on North Korea’s “New Cold War” Narrative

Author:: Hyun-wook Kim
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Hyun-wook Kim, Professor at Korean National Diplomatic Academy, assesses that North Korea is advocating a new Cold War discourse to strengthen its strategic solidarity with China. However, the intensified Cold War dynamic would lead the United States to prioritize its strategic competition with China, and the Biden administration should turn to a more passive approach toward North Korea. In this context, Dr. Kim anticipates that Washington would not offer incentives to Pyongyang for engaging in dialogue, which would lead Pyongyang to continue its military provocations to influence the direction of Washington’s policy course and gain recognition as a nuclear power. Given the volatility of the situation, Dr. Kim emphasizes the importance of reaffirming the ROK-US military alliance to counter the escalating crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:: Cold War, International Cooperation, Deterrence, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

13. Russia’s 2023 foreign policy concept: war against Ukraine, confrontation with the west, and continuation of the tradition of imperialism

Author:: Medea Ivaniadze
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: On March 31, 2023, the sixth Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation was published (The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation 2023). The document was updated for the first time in six years, the main reason for which is the deteriorating international situation for Moscow amid the Russo-Ukrainian war. The text of the concept is highlighted by harsh and revanchist calls against the West and especially the USA. The document almost entirely refers to the Russo-Ukrainian war, at the same time, the concept shows that the current war is only one part of Russia’s confrontation with the Western world. The concept contains a number of statements inconsistent with the real policy of Russia and even lies, but despite the absurd, propagandistic content of the new document, it is important to find out how the new concept differs from its predecessor, and also what factors Russia relies on in the current difficult international situation? Based on the 2023 Concept of the Foreign Policy of Russia the impact of Russia’s imperialist worldview on its foreign policy in the light of full-scale military intervention in Ukraine, the changed attitude towards the West, the prospects of Russia-West relations, Russia’s attempt to strengthen ties with non-Western countries, and finally, threats from Russia to Georgia are discussed in this publication.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Politics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Georgia, and United States of America

14. Democracy Promotion After the Iraq War

Author:: Sarah Bush
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The Iraq War has justifiably left Americans skeptical about democracy promotion. Despite its flaws, US democracy promotion is still needed to advance political rights globally. Supporting women’s rights has become an important facet of US democracy promotion. Although autocracies can manipulate women’s rights for their own ends, real and valuable progress has also been made.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Democracy, and Iraq War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

15. Hegemony, Democracy, and the Legacy of the Iraq War

Author:: Sean Yom
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The Iraq War destroyed America’s credibility as a promoter of democracy and liberalism in the Middle East. Revolutionary uprisings for democratic change continue to roil the Middle East, but none desire official sponsorship or support from the United States given its bloodstained legacy in Iraq.
Topic:: Hegemony, Democracy, Liberalism, Iraq War, and Uprising
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

16. Operation Iraqi Freedom: Learning Lessons from a Lost War

Author:: Heather S. Gregg
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: American-led efforts to state and nation-build in Iraq all but failed, resulting in the deaths of 4,431 US troops, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi fatalities, and mixed-at-best results in creating a viable state. Despite these failed efforts in Iraq, the United States will most likely need to work with allies, partners, and the Ukrainian people to reconstruct their country in the wake of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Therefore, learning lessons from the war in Iraq is critical for future efforts at state stabilization.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Alliance, Iraq War, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

17. What America Can Learn from France’s Mistakes in Africa

Author:: Komlan Avoulete
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: In recent years, France has suffered geopolitical setbacks in Africa. Tensions with Burkina Faso and Mali over French counter-terrorism operations led Paris to withdraw its troops from both of those countries. Russia is exploiting France’s failure to defeat terrorist groups in Africa as well as the feeling among many Africans that Paris exerts undue influence over its former colonies. The United States should learn from France’s mistakes and strive to build partnerships in Africa based on mutual respect, rather than focus too directly on competing with Russia or China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Africa, France, Mali, and United States of America

18. When Diplomats Are Undiplomatic

Author:: Charles Ray
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The US ambassador to South Africa recently accused South Africa of shipping arms to Russia. The ambassador was criticized by some—including the South African government—for breaking with diplomatic protocol by so openly condemning his host government. However, maintaining an effective working relationship does not mean that a diplomat must never say or do anything that the host country might not like. Far from it. Effective diplomacy is built on trust, honesty, and respect, and the diplomat who never disagrees or who comes across as a sycophant, will be neither trusted nor respected. On the other hand, a diplomat who is consistently honest, but who strives to be polite and considerate, might not be universally liked, but will earn respect.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Weapons, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, South Africa, and United States of America

19. Biden’s Middle East Balancing Act: Iran’s Nuclear Program and Saudi-Israeli Ties

Author:: Leon Hadar
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: This summer, the Biden administration decided to negotiate a temporary deal with Iran involving the release of American prisoners held by the Islamic Republic in exchange for the release of some of the funds that were held by the United States as part of the economic sanctions on Tehran. The White House expects that this package deal will open the road to talks with Iran on its nuclear program. The outline of a deal would include a pause in the accumulation of enriched uranium and an Iranian pledge not to produce weapons-grade fissile material, in exchange for the removal of US economic sanctions. But any diplomatic deal between Washington and Tehran raises fears among two of America’s allies in the region, Saudi Arabia and Israel, that regard Iran as an existential threat. From that perspective, a US-led process of normalizing the relations between Riyadh and Jerusalem could help contain Iran and reinforce the American pledge to strengthen the alliance with Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, Negotiation, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

20. Biden’s Bombs: The Dance of Ethics and Interests

Author:: Dominic Tierney
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: On the same day in July 2023, the Biden administration destroyed America’s last chemical weapon, and also, controversially, announced the supply of cluster bombs to Ukraine. The story of the two bombs shows how America’s view of ethics in war is shaped by an underlying strategic logic. The focus on humanizing war by banning certain weapons may do more to help America on the battlefield than to protect civilian lives.
Topic:: Ethics, Weapons, Civilians, Joe Biden, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

21. The Eagle in the South Caucasus: Armenia Tests Alternative Geopolitical Waters

Author:: Walter Landgraf and Nareg Seferian
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The US-Armenia “Eagle Partner” joint military exercise from September 11–20 may signal the beginning of a shift in the foreign policy direction of Armenia, historically a close ally to Russia. Armenia has been growing frustrated at the lackluster response of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to its appeals for assistance in the deepening conflict with Azerbaijan. However, it would be difficult to imagine a wholesale change in the geopolitical orientation in Yerevan, given the strong military, economic, energy, and cultural ties between Armenia and Russia.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Military, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Armenia, North America, South Caucasus, and United States of America

22. Hamas Allegations Threaten Another Breakdown in US-South Africa Ties

Author:: Michael Walsh
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: A reported call between South African Minister Naledi Pandor and Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh has renewed concerns that the African National Congress and government of South Africa are undermining US national security and foreign policy in the Middle East. This incident comes quickly on the heels of a springtime allegation that the African National Congress and South African government undermined US national security and foreign policy with respect to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Over the summer, members of Congress called into question the eligibility of South Africa for trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and its suitability to host the AGOA Forum. This was in response to the prior allegation that South Africa transferred arms or enabling technologies to Russia. Prior to next month’s AGOA Forum, there is an expectation that the AGOA eligibility determinations for 2024 will be delivered to Congress. This sets the stage for another potential showdown over the AGOA eligibility of South Africa and its suitability to host the AGOA Forum. At this stage, it is unlikely that South Africa will be deemed ineligible for AGOA trade benefits or removed as the host of the AGOA Forum. However, a political debate over its AGOA eligibility could cast a long shadow over the event and lead to another breakdown in the strategic partnership between South Africa and the United States. The White House will want to avoid both of those outcomes.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Africa, Israel, South Africa, Palestine, and United States of America

23. Cyber Crossover and Its Escalatory Risks for Europe

Author:: Lora Saalman, Fei Su, and Larisa Saveleva Dovgal
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The crossover between cybercrime and cyberwarfare has intensified in recent years, particularly against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and mounting tensions between China, Russia and the United States. This paper delves into specific cyber incidents that employ cybercrime tactics with cyberwarfare objectives, allegedly involving Chinese, Russian or US actors. It examines responses within and among the private sector, the public sector and international forums. Although not directly involved in all of the cases, the European Union (EU) was impacted in a variety of ways, including as a result of spillover effects and intentional targeting. Drawing on an examination of cyber incidents, this paper highlights how emerging trends in actors, means and responses present escalatory risks for the EU and emphasizes the pressing need to bolster cybersecurity measures.
Topic:: European Union, Cybersecurity, Conflict, Risk, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

24. Plowshares into Swords: An Interview with David Ekbladh

Author:: David Ekbladh and Seokju Oh
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: As much as it was a moment of America’s reckoning of its own immense power or its sudden vulnerability, the early-1940s was also a moment of a successful transplantation. Technical experts of the League of Nations were shipped (literally in a Pan Am Yankee Clipper) across the Atlantic and were soon incorporated into America’s war effort and postwar planning. Their knowledge on food, public health, world economy, and many more was weaponized, first, to win the war against the Axis powers and later, to “win the peace” against the Soviet Union. How was this transfer of knowledge possible? According to David Ekbladh’s new book, Plowshares into Swords: Weaponized Knowledge, Liberal Order, and the League of Nations (University of Chicago Press, 2022), it is essential to understand the US’ special relationship with the League during the interwar years. Contrary to being skeptical outsiders, many Americans were dedicated insiders; they intermingled with fellow liberal internationalists to exchange ideas to address what they conceptualized as common global problems brought about by industrial modernity. In essence, the successful transplantation of internationalist knowledge at the onset of the Second World War was feasible because it had been nurtured over the preceding two decades within the liberal international society of which the US was an integral part. As Ekbladh points out in the introduction, “American internationalism was, well, international.” During the course of the conversation, Ekbladh expanded upon his views on internationalism and hegemony, the role of internationalists from “non-Great Powers” in the liberal international order, and the place of democracy and planning in the thoughts of the interwar liberal internationalists.
Topic:: History, Liberalism, Interview, League of Nations, International Order, and Internationalism
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

25. A revolution of runaways: An interview with Jesse Olsavsky

Author:: Jesse Olsavsky and Matilde Cazzola
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: The history of the fight against enslavement in the Americas is a rich and multi-faceted one. It should, therefore, come as no wonder that there are still several aspects of it to be disinterred, and which the growing and dynamic scholarship on slavery and emancipation is, year after year, progressively bringing to light. Nonetheless, the new story recounted in the latest book by Jesse Olsavsky (Assistant Professor of History, Duke Kunshan University), The Most Absolute Abolition: Runaways, Vigilance Committees, and the Rise of Revolutionary Abolitionism, 1835–1861 (Louisiana State University Press, 2022), is a wondrous one. This is the history of the Vigilance Committees based in US northeastern cities which organized and supervised the submerged network of secret “lines”, safe “stations”, and trusted “conductors” of the Underground Railroad, along which thousands of African Americans travelled northward, by land and by sea, in the decades preceding the Civil War. Established since the mid-1830s, the Vigilance Committees were urban organizations aimed at illegally assisting enslaved persons escaping slavery in the South, as well as protecting and agitating on behalf of those who had already escaped. These Committees, as the author puts it, represented “a movement within the movement” of abolitionism, but also a form of activism which radicalized anti-slavery militancy and revolutionized its objectives, shifting its focus from the conversion of whites to the abolitionist cause to the desires and needs of the enslaved themselves. Most interestingly, Olsavsky’s study shows how the Vigilance Committees became crucial sites of convergence between northern abolitionists and southern fugitives, and radical spaces of production of knowledge about slavery, communication of the strategies to escape it, and debate around the meanings of freedom.
Topic:: Civil War, History, Slavery, Interview, and Abolitionism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

26. How Would Europe Defend Itself?

Author:: Mike Sweeney
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Achieving greater European defensive autonomy is unlikely to be quick or easy. While there are alternatives, adapting NATO to this end is arguably the most realistic path. Pointing out the significant challenges to European defensive autonomy should not be construed as an endorsement of the status quo. Contending demands for limited U.S. military resources in Asia and elsewhere augur a reduced U.S. role in NATO regardless of Europe’s capacity to defend itself. Given current deficiencies with European capabilities and the failure of many NATO members to meet basic funding obligations, significant spending increases are likely needed to actualize greater independent European military capabilities. Smaller coalitions within NATO could achieve more effective solutions at the regional level, as opposed to trying to achieve full defensive autonomy among all 29 European members. In particular, defense of the Nordic-Baltic region could be an important test case. Nuclear issues will be particularly difficult to navigate. Reliance on either British or French nuclear forces as NATO’s primary deterrent comes with important challenges. Likewise, retaining the U.S. nuclear umbrella absent U.S. ground forces in Europe could prove unworkable. Russia’s capacity to rebound long term and pose a more robust threat to Europe should not be discounted. This underscores the importance of working through the difficult issues associated with European defensive autonomy in the current strategic window of Russian weakness.1
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Deterrence, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

27. The Restraining Effect of Nuclear Deterrence

Author:: William D'Ambruoso
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Recent developments in international affairs and military technology have led some analysts to conclude that the nuclear revolution, which purportedly prevents war between nuclear powers, no longer has much effect—that the world is getting safer for nuclear war or conventional war beneath the nuclear umbrella. This conclusion is wrong; technological change has not meaningfully shifted the political calculus pacifying relations between nuclear weapons states. The war in Ukraine demonstrates the continued strength of nuclear restraint: while Russian President Vladimir Putin is risk-acceptant and brutal, he did not attack a country protected by U.S.-extended deterrence, and, like NATO members, he appears deterred by the possibility that a Russia-NATO war could escalate out of control. North Korea provides another example of the endurance of mutual deterrence: Despite heated rhetoric and a barrage of missile tests, North Korea remains deterrable, and its small arsenal has also been able to deter the United States. Because the chances of nuclear war are usually low but never zero, the nuclear age should continue to be an era of great power restraint. Traditional foreign policy approaches emphasizing strategic ambiguity and arms control, including with China, remain useful tools to help keep the peace.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, International Affairs, Deterrence, and Military
Political Geography:: Russia, China, North Korea, and United States of America

28. Neutrality Not NATO: Assessing Security Options for Ukraine

Author:: Benjamin H. Friedman
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The United States should not guarantee Ukraine’s security, whether via the NATO alliance or some lesser means. Guaranteeing Ukraine’s security serves no major U.S. interest and would increase the risk of a U.S. or NATO war with Russia and nuclear escalation. Those dangers are why the United States refuses to fight directly for Ukraine against Russia today, and they would induce similar caution if the United States guaranteed Ukraine’s security. Lacking a major interest, U.S. promises to defend Ukraine will be unserious and unbelievable. Fake security guarantees for Ukraine might have some deterrent value, despite their lack of credibility, given the terrible risks involved for Russia in testing those promises. However, fake security guarantees would likely degrade Ukraine’s security on balance, both by preserving a cause of the war and by encouraging Ukrainian leaders to make dangerous choices based on the false prospect of U.S. protection. Announcing plans to guarantee Ukraine’s security once the war ends would encourage Russia to continue fighting. Guaranteeing Ukraine’s security now would demand a choice between ignoring the commitment and undermining other U.S. security guarantees or fighting for Ukraine and sparking an immediate nuclear crisis. What the United States can credibly offer Ukraine is armed neutrality, where the United States, ideally with European allies taking the lead, provides Ukraine with arms and training without security guarantees.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Deterrence, Neutrality, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

29. Overreach in Africa: Rethinking U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy

Author:: William Walldorf
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Due to an overly broad definition of threat, the United States currently commits far too many military resources to counterterrorism, especially in Africa. The United States is pursuing military action against at least thirteen terrorist groups in Africa, but only one of those groups has the “global reach” to be a threat to Americans. Consequently, the U.S. military is fighting a slew of counterinsurgency—not counterterrorism—wars in Africa today, a strategy that borders on nation-building. Counterintuitively, U.S. security assistance, training, and military activity in Africa since the 2000s has inadvertently aided the growth of terrorist groups in the region. Most concerning, U.S. policy today could be helping to inspire the next generation of global jihadists tomorrow, intent on attacking the United States and its closest democratic allies. U.S. military activity in Africa has expanded significantly over the past decade and a half and this trend will likely continue even further without an intentional course correction. The potential for further mission creep and overexpansion is high. Washington should wind down direct military activity and close most military bases in Africa, while also curbing security assistance to local regimes.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Counter-terrorism, and Military Aid
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

30. Reset U.S.-Syria Policy

Author:: Daniel Depetris
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: After 12 years of civil war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government has consolidated its power and defeated credible threats to its rule. The anti-Assad armed opposition, which once controlled half of Syria, is relegated to the northwestern province of Idlib. While the Biden administration recognizes that Assad will likely remain in office, U.S. policy remains punitive, maintaining comprehensive sanctions on Syria until Assad negotiates political reforms with his opponents and agrees to free and fair elections. This policy will not produce the desired results. Assad is firmly entrenched, benefits from the help of security partners in Iran and Russia, who prefer that he stays in power, and remains highly unlikely to comply with U.S. demands. The status quo amounts to collective punishment of the Syrian population. Approximately 900 U.S. troops remain in eastern Syria, allegedly to train and advise the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces against ISIS. But ISIS lost its territorial caliphate more than four years ago. The risk of keeping U.S. forces there in perpetuity which includes sporadic attacks on U.S. positions and escalation risks with various actors, outweighs any rewards. Neither the sanctions nor the occupation of eastern Syria serves U.S. security interests. The former does no good, and the latter risks embroiling the United States in a mission without an end date. The United States should withdraw its remaining forces and offload what is left of the counter-ISIS mission to local actors. The United States should also reduce if not end its failing sanctions regime.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Armed Forces, Islamic State, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

31. Moving to an Offshore Balancing Strategy for East Asia

Author:: Peter Harris
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Those calling for Washington to expand U.S. military presence in the Western Pacific have misread the regional security environment. The United States can reduce its military footprint in East Asia without jeopardizing its national security or the stability of the region. China is not poised to dominate East Asia or any other part of the Indo-Pacific region. While the distribution of power in East Asia has shifted in favor of Beijing, it does not follow that China constitutes a major threat to the territorial integrity or political independence of all neighboring states. Regional powers can deter China from launching wars of aggression by investing in the right kinds of defensive weaponry to capitalize on geographic advantages. The United States should play the role of an “offshore balancer” by helping China’s neighbors to become more resilient to coercion from Beijing. The leaders of several prominent states in East Asia are anxious to avoid a “cold war” between the United States and China. Washington should heed their calls for restraint. Pushing these governments to choose a side in the U.S.-China rivalry would needlessly antagonize them. The issue of Taiwanese security presents a special challenge for the United States and its allies. Taiwan has the most to lose from China’s rise and perceives U.S. military support as essential to its survival as a de facto independent entity. However, the United States can retrench from East Asia without “abandoning” Taiwan to China. Peace in East Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific does not depend upon the United States enjoying primacy in the region. On the contrary, the pursuit of U.S. military primacy in the Western Pacific will make it more difficult to maintain regional security and promote economic prosperity over the long term.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Deterrence, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: East Asia, Asia, and United States of America

32. WHY DEMOCRACIES AREN’T MORE RELIABLE ALLIANCE PARTNERS

Author:: Mark Nieman and Doug Gibler
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: ussia’s invasion of Ukraine set off a security spiral in Europe. Despite US President Biden’s pledge to “defend every inch of NATO territory,” Poland increased its military budget by a whopping 60 percent and asked to have US nuclear weapons based on its territory. Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia also announced sizable defense increases, with Latvia re-instating compulsory military training. Why didn’t Biden’s pledge reassure these NATO members? Is the alliance’s famed Article 5 promise—that an attack on one member is an attack on all—a less than ironclad guarantee?
Topic:: NATO, Democracy, Alliance, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

33. WOULD AN ARMED HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION IN HAITI BE LEGAL—AND COULD IT SUCCEED?

Author:: Alexandra Byrne, Zoha Siddiqui, and Kelebogile Zvobgo
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Haitian officials and world leaders are calling for an armed humanitarian intervention backed by the United Nations (UN) to defeat organized crime. Gangs in Haiti have reportedly kidnapped and killed hundreds of civilians and displaced thousands. Gangs are also limiting access to fuel and blocking critical humanitarian aid to civilians. Add to this a resurgence of cholera. The United States asked the UN Security Council in October to approve a targeted intervention, under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield underscored “extreme violence and instability” in Haiti and proposed a mission led by a “partner country” (not the United States or UN peacekeeping forces). There is nominal support for the mission. In the coming weeks, Canada will send naval vessels to Haiti’s coast, and Jamaica has offered some troops, but no country is taking the lead. Critics argue that past missions in Haiti did more harm than good. In 2010, UN peacekeepers even reintroduced cholera into Haiti. Nonetheless, the United States is pushing for an intervention.
Topic:: International Law, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:: Caribbean, Haiti, and United States of America

34. The Causes Behind the Ciudad Juárez Migrant Detention Center Fire

Author:: Josiah Heyman and Jeremy Slack
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The fire that killed 40 people on March 27 is the foreseeable consequence of binational immigration enforcement measures by the United States and Mexico.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Border Control, Immigration Policy, and Migrants
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, United States of America, and Ciudad Juarez

35. Militarized Security and a Cartel Apology in Matamoros

Author:: Philip Luke Johnson
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The abduction and murder of U.S. citizens in the border city of Matamoros is part of a larger pattern of violence with impunity by state and criminal actors.
Topic:: Security, Crime, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, Border Control, Impunity, Violence, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

36. Brasília and Washington

Author:: Chris N. Lesser
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Beyond the parallels with the U.S. Capitol riot, the latest assault on Brazil’s democracy is marked by Washington’s long history of anti-democratic foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democracy, Jair Bolsonaro, January 6, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

37. The EU–US Data Protection Framework: Balancing Economic, Security and Privacy Considerations

Author:: Federica Marconi
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The rapid evolution of digital technology has ushered in a data-centric economy, where data accessibility drives marketplace efficiency and economic growth across various industries. However, this shift, while offering numerous benefits, introduces significant privacy and data security challenges, particularly in the context of transatlantic data transfers. Considering the vast economic ties between the EU and the US, the transatlantic data flow vividly illustrates the complexities involved in governing and transferring data. It grapples with the ongoing challenge of striking a satisfactory balance between economic advantages stemming from data utilisation and various concerns pertaining to national security, digital sovereignty and individual rights. In recent years, the European Commission approved two different frameworks on transatlantic data flow – Safe Harbour in 2000[1] and Privacy Shield in 2016[2] – asserting that the US provided a level of data protection for data transfers essentially equivalent to that guaranteed in the EU. However, despite initial optimism, both adequacy decisions faced a significant setback when the Court of Justice of the European Union invalidated them in what is commonly referred to as the “Schrems saga”,[3] named after the Austrian activist who first challenged both frameworks before the European Court. The core arguments centred on the absence of adequate safeguards for personal data within US domestic law and the extent of state surveillance over such data when it was transferred, as initially disclosed by Edward Snowden in 2013.[4] This legal development led to a period of significant uncertainty and further heightened the ongoing debate concerning the regulation of transatlantic data transfer. To address the consequences of this legal turmoil, both EU and the US committed to establishing “a renewed and sound framework for transatlantic data flows”,[5] seeking a long-term solution to address the complexities of data privacy and security, eventually leading to the recently adopted EU–US Data Privacy Framework (“DPF”).
Topic:: Security, Economics, Political Economy, European Union, Privacy, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

38. Climate Action, Geopolitical Risks and Strategic Policy: The Western Race to Secure Critical Raw Materials

Author:: Salvatore Finizio
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Climate action, economic competition and geopolitical shifts are more intertwined than ever. In the wake of the skyrocketing inflation and deteriorating China relations, United States President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law on 16 August 2022. Conceived as the foundation of the new US industrial policy, the IRA aims to rebuild the country’s industrial capacity, including 500 billion US dollars in new spending and tax breaks, among which almost 400 billion aimed at boosting clean energy.[1] Across the Atlantic, the European Union expressed concerns about the potential loss of industrial competitiveness resulting from the IRA. In response, the EU unveiled its own Green Deal Industrial Plan (GDIP) in February 2023.[2] The objective of this plan is to promote the enhancement of net-zero manufacturing capacities in order to meet the EU’s climate targets. Both the IRA and the GDIP have a common goal of reducing dependence on China, especially in clean technology, although through different approaches. The US focuses on bringing high-value production back to its shores, while the EU aims to develop and diversify supply chains.[3] This divergence is also reflected in the debate between “decoupling” and “derisking”, with the latter recently gaining prominence as policymakers recognise the challenges of completely reshoring supply chains domestically.[4] The US and the EU share industrial and geoeconomic objectives, but will also encounter similar challenges, in particular concerning the first stages of green supply chains. Despite their heterogeneous approaches, Western policymakers will in fact have to secure critical raw materials for clean technology manufacturing, with the aim of resourcing the energy transition.
Topic:: Security, Politics, European Union, Institutions, Energy, and Raw Materials
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

39. In the Middle East, Biden Is on the Razor’s Edge

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: US President Joe Biden is walking on thin ice while he attempts to deal with the most serious crisis in the Middle East since the ill-conceived US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Biden has orientated his administration’s action along three tracks: supporting Israel; protecting as many Palestinian civilians as possible while also resuscitating the defunct Middle East peace process; and preventing the conflict from extending to the wider region.[1] The problem is, reconciling these three priorities may be impossible.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Civilians, Hamas, Protection, and October 7
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America

40. Why El Salvador’s Anti-Crime Measures Cannot (and Should Not) Be Exported

Author:: Tiziano Breda
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: One year has passed since El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele launched a “war on gangs”, embedded in a state of exception that has since been renewed monthly. The government claims to have arrested 66,000 alleged gang members, projecting the image of an upfront battle against criminal organisations that has yielded results in bringing down murder rates. This has earned Bukele the approval not only of most Salvadorans, but millions of citizens throughout Latin America. His methods have become a foreign policy tool and a driver of electoral disputes in the region. But are they “exportable” to other countries? And should they?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Crime, Human Rights, Law Enforcement, Democracy, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: South America, North America, El Salvador, and United States of America

41. A New and Better Security Order for Europe

Author:: Rajan Menon
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Far-reaching changes in the global balance of power and Europe’s security environment call for a new U.S. strategy toward Europe—for the benefit of Americans and Europeans alike. European states should take deliberate steps toward autonomy in defense, which the U.S. should foster by reducing its military presence in, and security commitments to, Europe, gradually and in coordination with its NATO allies. The eventual goal should be to eliminate permanent U.S. military deployments in Europe. Europe, particularly France and Germany, possesses the material wherewithal to balance Russia’s military power. What Europe lacks is the motivation, something it will not acquire so long as it can count on a blanket, open-ended American commitment. Europe’s stability and security demand a regional order into which Russia—the continent’s strongest single military power—is eventually integrated, rather than one from which it has become progressively alienated. The post-Cold War crises over Ukraine arose from complex circumstances; but one of them has been the absence of a pan-European security order that extends from the Atlantic to the Urals and contains provisions for engagement with Russia, including arms control and crisis management, as well as confidence-building measures designed to reduce the risk of war. Restructuring Europe’s security order to promote European strategic autonomy will improve, not harm, trans-Atlantic relations and cooperation. The U.S. and Canada are bound to Europe by centuries-old ties—historical, cultural, and economic. While the extent and nature of these ties will necessarily change over time, their existence does not depend on an American willingness to serve indefinitely as Europe’s prime defender.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

42. Apply the Logic of the Afghanistan Withdrawal to Syria

Author:: Natalia Armbruster
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The logic President Biden used for removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan applies to Syria. Since a U.S. intervention should be defined by clear, achievable goals, and since long-range strikes, instead of occupying forces, can accomplish U.S. counterterrorism goals, there is no good case for keeping U.S. troops in Syria either. Around 900 U.S. forces currently occupy territory in eastern and southern Syria, risking conflict with Syrian forces and local militias, as well as Russian, Iranian, and Turkish forces. ISIS’s territorial caliphate in Syria was eliminated in 2019. The few, small, remote areas the remnants of ISIS now hold are largely within territory held by Syrian government forces. Local forces can fight the remnants of ISIS. None of the other standard rationales for keeping U.S. forces in Syria—protecting the Kurds, countering Iran and Russia, unseating the Assad regime—justifies keeping troops in Syria either.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islamic State, Military Intervention, Syrian War, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

43. The Wisdom of U.S. Military Withdrawal from Afghanistan

Author:: Andrew Doris
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Afghanistan was not Korea. False analogies to peacetime military garrisons cheapen war and conflate wildly different forms of “support” to U.S. allies. War in Afghanistan was costly—to taxpayers, to civilians, to American soft power, to democratic legitimacy, and to the West’s strategic attention. Thus, withdrawal saved a fortune, saved lives, aided America’s reputation, honored democratic and constitutional principles, and focused Western strategists. War was not protecting Americans from terrorism. Keeping troops in but one of many places terrorists may operate did not meaningfully reduce Americans’ microscopic risk of being harmed in a terrorist attack. War was not helping Afghanistan. Democracy is a strong word for what U.S. forces propped up. Far from maintaining stability, the continued presence of those forces only prolonged armed struggle against a corrupt rentier state, impeding organic or sustainable long-term development. Credibility is highly contextual and unaffected by admitting defeat after 20 years of futile effort. If anything, the resources freed up by withdrawal make the United States better able to honor other commitments.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Affairs, Taliban, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

44. Raising the Minimum: Explaining China’s Nuclear Buildup

Author:: Lyle J. Goldstein
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: China’s nuclear buildup, consisting of new ICBMs, submarine-launched weapons, a new generation of strategic bombers, and advances in hypersonic weapons, implies a significant recalibration of Beijing’s traditional “minimum deterrence” strategy. Beijing deliberated for decades about whether to increase its nuclear arsenal, and it finally seems to be doing so, at least partially in response to the precipitous decline in U.S.-China relations, U.S. initiatives to develop ballistic missile defense, and U.S. nuclear doctrine. China is not bidding for numerical nuclear superiority against the United States with its buildup. Rather, China is likely looking to secure its “second strike” deterrence forces and negate any perception of U.S. nuclear predominance to avoid being coerced by the United States, especially with respect to Taiwan. China’s buildup reflects a strengthening of its deterrent and thus does not contradict China’s long-time policy of no first use (NFU). Beijing wants decision-makers in Washington to recognize its credible deterrent. The United States should both preserve strong nuclear deterrent forces and avoid an overreaction to China’s buildup. U.S. nuclear modernization should focus on survivability and be accompanied by attempts at dialogue, arms control, and the development of crisis management mechanisms.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Crisis Management, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

45. Bases, Logistics, and the Problem of Temptation in the Middle East

Author:: Benjamin Denison
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The wisdom of making wars easier depends on the wisdom of the wars. Rapid military response to all global trouble may sound good, but it can tempt policymakers to intervene even for non-vital interests. U.S. military bases and logistics hubs in and near the Middle East are the primary examples—they make foolish wars too easy to start. Maintaining the ability to use rapid military force in the region has become an end unto itself, unmoored from any clear vital strategic interest. Closing bases will make wars more challenging to start, which will help spur public debate about potential interventions due to the transparent upfront costs required. This will give diplomacy an opportunity to return as the primary policy option in the region. This recommendation is consistent with the U.S. Constitution’s logic. Democracy’s benefit for foreign policymaking is its ability to consider many options and give more time to think through various proposals.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

46. At the End of Its Tether: U.S. Grand Strategy of Advancing Democracy

Author:: David C. Hendrickson
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Over the past several decades, the United States has made the advance of democracy its great purpose in foreign policy. The Biden administration’s rhetoric about a global struggle between autocracy and democracy is the old habit in new form. U.S. leaders market this goal as consonant with the U.S. liberal tradition, but it in fact offends the nation’s founding ethos, especially in relegating state sovereignty and national independence to secondary status. In the older teaching, accepted even by liberal internationalists like President Woodrow Wilson and President Franklin Roosevelt, free institutions were to expand by example, not by force. After the Cold War, U.S. efforts to push states into becoming democracies by instruction, war, and sanctions have been an abject failure, in large part because they offended against the principle of national independence. Defining U.S. efforts today as the defense of democracy obscures vital problems in the U.S. alliance system, including its expansionist tendencies, its unfair sharing of burdens, and the risks it poses of a major war that would be detrimental to U.S. security. The U.S. should reject the revolutionary policy of regime change and return to the respect for national independence once embedded in the U.S. diplomatic tradition. Overturning autocratic governments is an aim that is antithetical to peace, the most favorable environment for the growth of liberal democracy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Cold War, Democracy, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

47. Implications of a Melting Arctic

Author:: Sascha Glaeser
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Melting ice is making the Arctic more accessible, which in turn may affect three key issues in the region—militarization, maritime trade, and natural resource development. U.S. security interests in the Arctic remain deterring an attack on the United States and NATO allies and ensuring the lawful use of Arctic waters. The United States can secure both at minimum cost and risk. Greater accessibility does not increase threats emanating from the Arctic, so the United States does not need to do more militarily to ensure its security. Militarization absent threats could lead to a destabilizing security dilemma. Trans-Arctic maritime trade routes and natural resource development present potential economic opportunities; however, both still face significant challenges that limit their near-term viability. The United States should be vigilant to Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic and avoid overreacting or reflexively mirroring their behavior. A U.S. Arctic strategy built on the reality that the United States enjoys a strong conventional and nuclear deterrent, a robust network of Arctic allies, and favorable geography, is the best avenue to protect U.S. interests and keep the Arctic at peace.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Natural Resources, Trade, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, and United States of America

48. War Is a Choice, Not a Trap: The Right Lessons from Thucydides

Author:: Michael C. Desch
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: A careful reading of the Greek Thucydides’ The History of the Peloponnesian War suggests that a U.S.-China war is hardly inevitable. Such a war is a choice, not a trap, and selecting the appropriate U.S. grand strategy is the way to avoid it. China faces important geographical and technological obstacles to expanding its hegemonic position in the region. Thucydides’ fundamental lessons for the contemporary United States in its rivalry with China is that democratic Athens erred when it sought primacy by expanding its empire during the Peloponnesian War; today we do not need to preserve a position of primacy in East Asia but can instead rest content with maintaining a balance of power. Despite China’s rise, the United States and its regional allies are in a strong position to maintain a regional balance of power that keeps a peace and serve U.S. interests in Asia.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, War, History, Alliance, and Geography
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

49. Spheres of Influence in a Multipolar World

Author:: Andrew Latham
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Throughout the modern era, great powers have routinely staked out geographic zones within which they have limited the autonomy of weaker states—often as buffer zones between themselves and potential adversaries or rival empires. Since the nineteenth century, these geopolitical spaces have typically been referred to as spheres of influence. The specific configuration of such spheres depends largely on the distribution of power in the international system. During moments of multi-polarity, multiple great powers will attempt to assert spheres of influence; during the Cold War era of bipolarity, the international order was defined by two superpower-dominated spheres; during the post-Cold War moment of unipolarity, the U.S. alone was able to assert a sphere of influence. Given this, it was inevitable that the return of multipolarity from the 2010s on would result in the crystallization of a new, multipolar, configuration of spheres of influence—one involving multiple great powers each asserting their own sphere. The relevant question now, therefore, is not if the transition to a world of multiple spheres of influence will take place (given the structural changes at the level of international order, it most certainly will), but how Washington should manage this development in ways that are both realistic and conducive to U.S. interests. The most realistic answer to this how question is to adopt a differentiated strategy that recognizes that, while the U.S. will not be able to prevent spheres of influence as a feature of international order tout court, it may be able to thwart specific spheres in certain specific circumstances.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Multipolarity, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

50. Semiconductors Are Not a Reason to Defend Taiwan

Author:: Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Taiwan’s dominance in advanced semiconductor manufacturing and rising U.S.-China tensions have produced alarm that a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan could cause a major disruption of the global semiconductor supply chain. This has led some to claim that the U.S. should defend Taiwan in order to maintain its supply of advanced chips. Fears that China could seize Taiwan’s chip-manufacturing capacity and leapfrog the U.S. technologically are overblown. Interdependence cuts both ways; if China invaded Taiwan, it would be cut off from the vital inputs controlled by the U.S. or its allies, and therefore unable to resume chip production under new management. Others fear Taiwanese chips could be disrupted during a Chinese blockade or a protracted conflict and tend to recommend bolstering U.S. capabilities to deter China. However, there are strong reasons to doubt the U.S. can ultimately deter Beijing if it feels that force is its only option for national reunification. Further efforts by the U.S. to deter China may only present Beijing with a closing window, encouraging it to use force before its prospects worsen, and precipitating the very conflict the U.S. seeks to prevent; a war between the U.S. and China would be exponentially costlier than any potential semiconductor supply shock resulting from a cross-strait invasion. Instead, the U.S. should seek to dial down the temperature with Beijing in order to maintain the political and territorial status quo and buy the time needed to diversify its own semiconductor supplies by onshoring or “allyshoring” chip manufacturing. The U.S. should therefore avoid provoking Beijing unnecessarily, and reaffirm the substance of the One China Policy while seeking to develop a longer-term settlement with Beijing over the future of the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Manufacturing, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

51. Who Is an Ally, and Why Does It Matter?

Author:: Natalie Armbruster and Benjamin H. Friedman
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: In addition to the 51 allies the United States is obligated by treaty to defend, it has a number of quasi-allies: states the United States is not committed to defend but to which it provides a substantial degree of military and political support. By creating uncertainty about U.S. commitments both at home and abroad, quasi-allies’ ambiguous status creates dangers for both the United States and the quasi-allies. For the United States, the danger is entanglement; having quasi-allies can pull the United States into trouble outside its core interests, creating needless cost, risk, and even war. Quasi-allies may suffer a kind of moral hazard; they may falsely believe they have U.S. military protection and fail to secure themselves sufficiently or become emboldened and dangerously provoke adversaries. U.S. leaders should be more wary of these dangers and avoid loose talk and policy acts that imply a commitment to non-allies’ defense.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Alliance, and Military
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

52. Fact Sheet: Anti-LGBT+ Mobilization on the Rise in the United States

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Amid a wave of legislation targeting the LGBT+ community, anti-LGBT+ mobilization is increasing in the United States (see graph below). Anti-LGBT+ mobilization captured by ACLED — including demonstrations (both peaceful and violent), acts of political violence (including sexual violence, non-sexual attacks, and mob violence), and the dissemination of offline propaganda (like flyering) — rose fourfold from 15 events in 2020 to 61 in 2021. As of early June 2022 and the start of LGBT+ Pride Month, ACLED has already recorded 33 anti-LGBT+ events this year — putting 2022 on track to be a worse year for anti-LGBT+ mobilization than 2021.
Topic:: Political Violence, Discrimination, Protests, and LGBT+
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

53. The Killing of Al-Zawahiri and the Future of Al-Qaeda

Author:: Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In the afternoon of 1 August, Joe Biden gave a speech from the White House confirming the killing of Al-Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in Afghanistan. According to senior sources from the administration, Zawahiri was killed by “a precise tailored airstrike” conducted at around 06:30 am local time in the Sherpur neighbourhood of Kabul.[1] The strike was carried out via two Hellfire missiles (allegedly, two R9X missiles) fired from a drone.[2] The area in which the attack was carried out is particularly significant: the Sherpur neighbourhood is located in a deeply protected area of the capital, in which many Taliban leaders now live. Al-Zawahiri was reportedly killed in the house owned by a top aide to senior Taliban leader, Sirajuddin Haqqani.[3]
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Al Qaeda, and Ayman al-Zawahiri
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

54. Russia–Ukraine Talks and the Indispensable Role of the US and Europe

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Vladimir Putin’s imperialist war of conquest in Ukraine is about to enter its fifth week. Russia’s failure to shock and awe Ukraine’s government and armed forces into submission through a poorly executed Blitzkrieg has morphed into a slow and ever more brutal three-front campaign. While Russian forces struggle to make strides in the north and east, they have been more successful in the south, where they are about to deprive Ukraine from access to the Sea of Azov.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

55. Constraints for Engagement with China: Dutch Ports and the BRI

Author:: Vera Kranenburg and Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Rising US–China rivalry is shaping and constraining the relations between European states and China. The Netherlands is no exception and recent tensions with China have carried over to impact its trade and cooperative engagements with Beijing. The Netherlands never formally signed onto the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)[1] – the Chinese policy framework for international transport, communication and energy development. Nevertheless, the BRI is very relevant to the Netherlands, in particular for the Dutch port of Rotterdam and its ambition to preserve its role as a major logistical hub for trade with Europe.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, Engagement, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Netherlands, and United States of America

56. Revising down the rise of China

Author:: Roland Rajah and Alyssa Leng
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: China will likely experience a substantial long-term growth slowdown owing to demographic decline, the limits of capital-intensive growth, and a gradual deceleration in productivity growth. Even with continued broad policy success, our baseline projections suggest annual economic growth will slow to about 3% by 2030 and 2% by 2040, while averaging 2–3% overall from now until 2050. China would still become the world’s largest economy, but it would never enjoy a meaningful lead over the US and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person even by mid-century.
Topic:: Demographics, Economy, Economic Growth, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

57. Drug trafficking in the Pacific Islands: The impact of transnational crime

Author:: Jose Sousa-Santos
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The Pacific “drug highway” has spilled over into domestic markets for illicit drug consumption and production in the Pacific Islands region. Drug trafficking has evolved significantly with the rise of local actors in transnational criminal networks. Capacity shortfalls and a disconnect between regional law enforcement infrastructure and national law enforcement agencies undermine trust and are detrimental to intelligence sharing and interoperability in cross-border policing efforts. The deportation policies of Australia, New Zealand, and the United States are exacerbating crime and addiction within Pacific nations. They undermine the policy objectives of development partners in the region and will need urgent review.
Topic:: Crime, Non State Actors, Law Enforcement, Transnational Actors, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:: Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

58. An Assessment of North Korea’s ICBM Technology and South Korea’s Countermeasures

Author:: Sangmin Lee
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: In this Commentary, Sangmin Lee, Director of the North Korean Military Research Division at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), provides an evaluation of North Korea’s ICBM technology, discusses the threat behind North Korea’s development of tactical nuclear weapons, and suggests ways in which South Korea can deter North Korean military threat. While North Korea has accelerated progress in its pursuit towards technological advancements in nuclear weapons and missile capabilities, Dr. Lee claims that ICBM development still remains as a daunting task for North Korea due to difficulties in acquiring technology and strategic materials. Nonetheless, formidable threats lie behind North Korea’s aspirations to secure military superiority on the Korean Peninsula. In this regard, the author states that the “imbalance of fear” between South and North Korea arising from Seoul’s lack of facilities protective of nuclear attacks is a key issue and underscores the need for Seoul to offset the discrepancy and prepare in advance.
Topic:: Weapons of Mass Destruction, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

59. Three Reasons Why CHIPS-plus is a Big Win for US National Security

Author:: Tom Klein
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: On August 9th, 2022, President Biden signed vital bipartisan legislation to compete with China. H.R. 4346, called the CHIPS and Science Act or “CHIPS-plus,” would pave the way for nearly $280 billion in incentives to boost US-based chip manufacturing, scientific research, technology standards setting, and STEM education. These initiatives directly protect our immediate security vulnerabilities in the US military and support our long-term national security competition with China by promoting democratic norms and spurring critical defense innovations.
Topic:: Security, National Security, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Innovation, and CHIPS
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

60. Politics, War and Eastern Mediterranean Gas

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the past two months, there have been several significant, interlocking developments regarding Eastern Mediterranean gas. In January, the Biden Administration withdrew American support for the Israeli-Cypriot-Greek EastMed gas pipeline. In February, U.S. officials shuttled between Israel and Lebanon for another round of talks to resolve the question of the maritime border and the exclusive rights to exploit gas in their disputed waters. Most importantly, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which began in late February, has transformed the long-discussed European need to reduce its dependence on Russian gas (and oil) into an urgent priority. It has also exposed the disconnect between optimistic policies that anticipated an imminent shift to renewable resources and the reality that the developed world will, in the short- to medium-term, remain dependent on fossil fuels. Confronted with this new reality, does Europe's need to rapidly diversify its sources of energy increase the strategic value of Eastern Mediterranean gas? And can the Eastern Mediterranean contribute meaningfully to reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Politics, War, and Gas
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, and United States of America

61. A Tale of Two Normalizations: Israeli Normalization with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – Part I

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: The “Treaty of Peace, Diplomatic Relations and Full Normalization Between the United Arab Emirates and the State of Israel” was signed on September 15, 2020. On the same day, Bahrain and Israel signed their “Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations.” Since then, bilateral relations between the two states and Israel have progressed speedily, with many more issue-specific agreements signed and economic relations with the Emirates burgeoning. The Negev Conference on March 28, 2022, which was attended by the U.A.E., Bahrain, Egypt, and Morocco, as well as the United States, symbolized a maturing and coalescence of the regional normalization processes between Israel and conservative Arab states. This paper will address recent developments in the foreign policy of U.A.E. that impact the current status of relations with Israel, as well as recent developments in relations between the two states.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and UAE

62. Biden’s Foreign Policy Casts a Long Shadow

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Upon taking office as US president, Joseph R. Biden vowed he would bring the United States back to the centre of the international stage after the erratic course followed by Donald Trump. One year later, it can hardly be said that he has been successful.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

63. The Return of US Leadership in Europe: Biden and the Russia Crisis

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In dealing with Russia’s aggressive policies towards Ukraine, US President Joe Biden has put up a powerful display of competent crisis management. While it may not be enough to stop President Vladimir Putin from escalating, Biden’s policy has nonetheless re-affirmed US leadership in Europe.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Vladimir Putin, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Caucasus, Balkans, and United States of America

64. Israeli Apartheid and the West’s Dwindling Moral Credibility

Author:: Andrea Dessì
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Amidst spiralling tensions on the European continent, East-West animosities have returned to dominate daily news cycles. Predictably, this has revived rhetoric on competing political systems and norms, giving rise to a flurry of reporting contrasting Western democracy’s support for the “rules-based international order” vs an informal “alliance of autocracies” led by Russia and China which embrace military might or economic and political blackmail in “a bid to make the world safe for dictatorship”, as recently opinionated the Washington Post.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, International Law, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, United States of America, and Mediterranean

65. Europe’s Post-Cold War Order Is No More

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to recognise the independence of the self-styled separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas may very well be the beginning of the end of Ukraine as an independent nation. For Ukraine, a nation of almost 44 million people, catastrophe looms large on the horizon. For Europe, these events are the harbinger of the end of an era. Europe’s post-Cold War order is no more.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Caucasus, Balkans, and United States of America

66. The Future of U.S.-North Korea Relations After the 2022 U.S. Midterm Elections

Author:: Jungkun Seo
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Jungkun Seo, Professor at Kyung Hee University, claims that with the results of the midterm elections in favor of Biden and the Democrats, Biden could likely run for re-election. Added to this, he expects that there will be no innovative strategy to tackle North Korea as Biden would have no choice but to take a hardline stance ahead of the 2024 election if North Korea's provocations make a prominent security threat to the United States. Professor Seo emphasizes that it will be extremely difficult for the U.S. to find a new breakthrough to the stalled peace process on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Elections
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

67. The Biden Administration’s Economic Security Policies and ROK-U.S. Relations

Author:: Wang Hwi Lee
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Wang Hwi Lee, Professor at Ajou University, claims that United States’ move to exclude China from global supply chains will likely benefit Korean semiconductor and secondary battery businesses as Beijing’s aggressive push to become a world leader in high-tech industries poses a systemic threat to Korea. However, it is difficult for South Korea to drastically lower its economic dependence on the Chinese market to the level that the U.S. government desires, and thus not to be eligible for subsidies that the U.S. government provides. In this regard, Professor Lee points out that Korean firms are about to lose their share and returns in both the American and Chinese markets in the short run. Yet, he also emphasizes that economic tension between Seoul and Washington must not affect their military alliance, given that the security threats from North Korea are getting intensified.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Supply Chains, Economic Security, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

68. Analysis of Xi Jinping’s Work Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and its Implications on Foreign Policy

Author:: Hankwon Kim
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Hankwon Kim, an Associate Professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, provides an analysis of Xi Jinping's "Work Report" to the 20th Party Congress which includes an ideological and political framework for understanding the likely direction of Chinese domestic and foreign policy for the next five years. Dr. Kim claims that the chances of China shifting its foreign policy seem to be low as the report contained indirect criticisms towards the United States by opposing all forms of hegemonism, coercive politics, Cold War thinking, interference in domestic affairs, and double standards. In addition, as 2027 marks the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the People's Liberation Army of China and the time Xi Jinping should decide whether to run for a fourth consecutive term, Dr. Kim predicts that Chinese leadership could move toward armed unification by 2027. Accordingly, Dr. Kim suggests that South Korea should investigate possible future scenarios in the Taiwan Strait and prepare for concrete countermeasures.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China, North Korea, and United States of America

69. Evaluation and Suggestion on the ROK-U.S. Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group Meeting

Author:: Jungsup Kim
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Jungsup Kim, Vice President of Research and Education at the Sejong Institute, evaluates ROK-U.S. Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) meeting held on September 16, 2022. He claims that the clear warning of an “overwhelming and decisive response” to any North Korean nuclear attack and Washington’s ironclad commitment to drawing on the full range of its military capabilities to provide extended deterrence for South Korea are positive outcomes. However, he indicates that they did not elaborate on how the “tailored deterrence” strategy could be applied to the Korean Peninsula. To address this issue, Dr. Kim highlights the need to institutionalize the concept of extended deterrence and suggests expanding opportunities for information sharing with the U.S., utilizing various consultative bodies to provide an effective extended nuclear deterrent, and stabilizing the crisis while responding to the North Korean nuclear threats.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

70. The Road to Denuclearization of the DPRK: The DPRK’s Strategy and the ROK-U.S. Response Plan

Author:: Won Gon Park
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Won Gon Park, a professor at Ewha Woman’s University, appreciates that the Yoon government’s “Audacious Initiative” reaffirms the goals and methods of denuclearization. However, Dr. Park points out that Pyongyang refuses to accept President Yoon’s proposal to receive economic incentives in return for denuclearization, as DPRK has recently passed a radical law enshrining the right to automatically use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself. In addition, given that DPRK continues its offensive posture refusing to have any negotiations with Washington or Seoul, he highlights that South Korea and the United States should first agree on a precise definition, goals, and approaches to denuclearization.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

71. America’s Alliance First vs. DPRK’s “neo-Cold War” First: An Assessment on US-DPRK Relationship

Author:: Li Nan
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Li Nan, a Senior Research Fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of American Studies, criticizes the Biden administration’s North Korea policy as undermining the Korean Peninsula’s denuclearization process. Dr. Nan indicates that United States’ “alliance-first approach” puts North Korea on the opposite side of the US and closes the door to bilateral talks. And he points out that prioritizing alliance over denuclearization may hamper prospects of denuclearization as North Korea will highly likely rely on China and Russia and keep improving the conventional military system. Furthermore, he highlights the importance of effective coordination with North Korea by maintaining a favorable diplomatic conditions conducive to talks.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Alliance, Denuclearization, and Unification
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

72. Creating an Enabling Environment for Sustainable Water Infrastructure Financing

Author:: Conor M. Savoy and Janina Staguhn
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Water presents a significant global development challenge as crises over resources and access to clean water are becoming more extreme due to climate change. To reach the most disadvantaged communities in rural areas, adequate infrastructure is going to be integral. It is estimated that water infrastructure will require an additional $22.5 trillion by 2050, and to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6, financing would need to triple to $114 billion per year. As with other forms of infrastructure, water requires more than simply building reservoirs, pipes, and holding tanks. For true sustainable infrastructure, donors and local governments should also invest in support to maintain infrastructure and create a regulatory environment that enables continued improvement. To successfully finance water infrastructure, there must be an understanding of what the current financing landscape looks like and how the United States, its Group of Seven (G7) allies, and multilateral partners should prioritize financing, especially on a local level.
Topic:: Environment, International Cooperation, Water, Infrastructure, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

73. What Does $40 Billion in Aid to Ukraine Buy?

Author:: Mark F. Cancian
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Congress has approved $40 billion in aid for Ukraine and other countries affected by the conflict―the sixth aid package since the war began. A major change is that this package looks ahead months rather than weeks. The aid package provides $19 billion for immediate military support to Ukraine, continuing the effort that has been vital to sustaining Ukrainian resistance, and $3.9 billion to sustain U.S. forces deployed to Europe. The package also contains about $16 billion for economic support to Ukraine, global humanitarian relief, and a wide variety of international programs as well as $2 billion for long-term support to NATO allies and DOD modernization programs. Although some elements of the aid package will be available quickly, many will take years to fully implement. This raises questions about why long-term elements could not have gone through the regular congressional authorization and budget processes.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Military Spending, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

74. Political Prisoners to Ortega’s Narrative

Author:: José Luis Rocha
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In Nicaragua, the story of a government fighting against the U.S. capitalist empire exposes deep contradictions.
Topic:: Government, Prisons/Penal Systems, Domestic Politics, Political Prisoners, Empire, and Daniel Ortega
Political Geography:: Central America, Nicaragua, and United States of America

75. Integration with the United States or Latin American Independence?

Author:: David Barkin and Alberto Betancourt
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: At the last Community of Latin American and Caribbean States meeting, Mexico’s president proposed contradicting relationships with North America.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Integration
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

76. For Hemispheric Unity, a Change in U.S. Foreign Policy is Needed

Author:: Brett J. Kyle and Andrew G. Reiter
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the face of a new war in Europe, shoring up support in Latin America will not be as easy as the Biden administration thinks.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Latin America, and United States of America

77. Making the Dominican Republic Great Again?

Author:: Lorgia García-Peña
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Dominican government has always aligned itself with white supremacism, following the United States’ lead on immigration policies towards Haitians.
Topic:: Immigration, Border Control, and White Supremacy
Political Geography:: Caribbean, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and United States of America

78. Why Haiti Advocacy Needs New Strategies

Author:: Mark Schuller
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: As the Biden administration continues to ignore Haitian civil society proposals for a pathway out of crisis, confronting white supremacy across borders is essential.
Topic:: Civil Society, Borders, Crisis Management, and White Supremacy
Political Geography:: Caribbean, Haiti, and United States of America

79. U.S. Immigration Detention System: “A Living Hell”

Author:: Joseph Nevins
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A historical and contemporary look at migrant incarceration and the detainees pushing for change inside and beyond the system.
Topic:: Human Rights, Immigration, Border Control, and Detention
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

80. WILL NATO MILITARY EXERCISES DETER RUSSIAN EXPANSION?

Author:: Brian Blankenship
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: As concerns that Russia might try to seize additional territory from Ukraine have mounted in recent weeks, policymakers in the United States and NATO have considered how best to shore up the alliance and discourage a Russian offensive. These efforts are hardly new. Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the NATO alliance has attempted to dissuade Russia from further attempts to encroach on the territory of neighboring countries. These attempts have included the creation of a “Very High Readiness Joint Task Force” capable of deploying to crisis areas within 72 hours, as well as the “Enhanced Forward Presence” consisting of four multinational battalions stationed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland on a rotational basis. Additionally, NATO members have conducted a variety of military exercises with members around the alliance’s eastern flank, as well as some with Ukraine itself.
Topic:: NATO, Deterrence, Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, and Military
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, United States of America, and Baltic States

81. HOW DO GOVERNMENTS DECIDE WHICH GROUPS ARE “TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS”?

Author:: Brian J. Phillips and Mirna El Masri
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: US Senator Ted Cruz recently called for Yemen’s Houthis to be added to the Foreign Terrorist Organization list—again. The Iran-backed Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, were designated as terrorists by the Trump administration on January 19, 2021, criminalizing support of the group, but the designation was removed by the Biden administration the following month. Around the world, national terrorist group lists vary considerably, and change over time. Last fall, the UK government announced it would add Hamas to its terrorist list. Other countries, such as the United States, have long designated Hamas a terrorist group, while others, like Russia, have not. Why do some organizations end up on countries’ terrorist group lists? Why are some terrorist lists different than others?
Topic:: Government, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Conflict, and Islamism
Political Geography:: United States of America

82. CONTAINMENT 2.0: SANCTIONS FOR THE LONG HAUL

Author:: David A. Lake
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: The West is not imposing coercive sanctions on Russia to stop its current aggression. No one seriously expects that the sanctions will cause President Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. NATO made clear before the war that its members will not defend Ukraine with military force. The European members have also, as expected, carved out exceptions to the sanctions regime for oil and gas so as not to impose too much pain on their own economies. Putin anticipated the general scope of the sanctions likely to be imposed on Russia and decided it was worth invading Ukraine anyways. While he may have been surprised by the extent of the sanctions and unity of NATO so far, this is not enough to alter his calculus. Indeed, he is doubling down on the original plan. He also knows that he has other weapons and forms of coercion against the West up his sleeve. Rather, we are seeing the birth of a possible Containment 2.0, a forced decoupling of Russia from the Western international economy. This is a long-term, not a short-term, strategy. The point is to undermine the Russian economy, stifle its technological progress, deny Russians a standard of living comparable to that of the West, and break support for the regime over time. In doing so, the West undermines Russia’s ability to compete militarily, aiming to forestall further Ukraines, and weakens Putin’s hand at home and abroad.
Topic:: NATO, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Economy, and Containment
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Global Focus, and United States of America

83. WILL NATO FIGHT RUSSIA OVER UKRAINE? THE STABILITY-INSTABILITY PARADOX SAYS NO

Author:: Andrew Kydd
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Many observers of the current war between Russia and Ukraine have expressed concern that NATO support for Ukraine could escalate the conflict to a direct major conventional war between NATO and Russia, and that from there it could easily escalate to a nuclear war. A group of foreign policy experts have proposed that NATO impose a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine, while other analysts have decried the escalatory potential of such a move. In a recent poll of international relations scholars, 40 percent thought a no-fly zone would lead to large-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia and 13 percent thought it could lead to nuclear war.
Topic:: NATO, Nuclear Weapons, War, Escalation, and Instability
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

84. WHY OFFSHORE FINANCE LIMITS U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA

Author:: Menevis Cilizoglu and Chelsea Estancona
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: More than 1,000 individuals and entities have now been targeted with sanctions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including more than 50 oligarchs close to Putin and their families. These measures include the freezing of assets in international banks, seizure of yachts, private jets, and luxury real estate, and travel bans. Western policymakers hope that targeting a wide network of Russian political and economic elites, including oil executives, steel tycoons, media moguls and high-level intelligence officers will isolate Putin and pressure him to reverse course. The million-dollar question is, can these targeted measures actually hurt Russian oligarchs, let alone pressure Putin?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, War, Sanctions, Offshore Finance, and Shell Companies
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and United States of America

85. Nuclear Waste Policy Actions for the 117th Congress and Biden Administration

Author:: Matt Bowen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: In the 117th Congress, the United States Senate is evenly divided, 50-50, between the two major political parties, and the margin for control of the US House is small. One nonpartisan—and overdue—policy issue that Congress and the executive branch could focus on is the US nuclear waste management program. The US is currently paying billions to utilities to house spent nuclear fuel (SNF) at operating and shutdown facilities, and high-level waste (HLW) remains at former nuclear weapons complex sites around the country. Add to this the potential for greater future reliance on nuclear power in a decarbonizing economy, and the need to finally get a handle on managing radioactive waste is clear. An earlier report from the Center on Global Energy Policy on the US nuclear waste management program examined larger structural changes that the federal government could pursue to help the program make progress, such as fixing the funding mechanism and updating regulatory standards.[1] This commentary discusses the US program as it stands in the 117th Congress and proposes a series of comparatively smaller actions that could be considered and perhaps pursued on a bipartisan basis in the next few years.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Governance, Leadership, and Nuclear Waste
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

86. From the Capitol Riot to the Midterms: Shifts in American Far-Right Mobilization Between 2021 and 2022

Author:: Roudabeh Kishi
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: After the attack on the Capitol in January 2021 and through the November 2022 midterm elections, far-right mobilization has only continued to evolve in the United States. Currently, far-right activity in 2022 is on track to exceed the level of activity reported in 2021, driven by a significant uptick in white nationalist, white supremacist, and anti-LGBT+ organizing around the country. This report analyzes shifts in the drivers of far-right mobilization over the course of the year, with a focus on how these drivers shaped the activities of armed militias and violent groups like the Proud Boys in states with contentious elections, as well as a look at trends to watch ahead of the 2024 campaign season.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, LGBT+, Far Right, White Supremacy, and January 6
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

87. US-Africa Leaders Summit: New Beginning or Old Wine in a New Bottle?

Author:: Charles A. Ray
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The US-Africa Leaders Summit—which included delegates from forty-nine countries and the African Union—was held in Washington, D.C., from Dec. 13–15, 2022. The summit focused on deepening and expanding the US-Africa partnership and giving voice to Africans in meeting current global challenges. The summit addressed substantive issues like climate change, food security, and human rights, without dwelling on America’s concern about Chinese or Russian influence on the continent. While specific details remain to be worked out, the three most important deliverables of the summit were: US support for the African Union to become a member of the G-20; a promise of $55 billion in aid to Africa over the next three years; and a commitment from President Joe Biden to visit Africa in 2023.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Food Security, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

88. America’s Great-Power Challenge: Managing Russia’s Decline and China’s Rise

Author:: Thomas F. Lynch III
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Geopolitics today is characterized by an evolving multipolar great-power competition between China, Russia, and the United States. The zero-sum nature of bipolar Cold War competition logic does not apply so relative losses in power by Russia could help the relative power position of China, and harm long-term American strategic interests, unless carefully managed in Washington. Washington should learn from past multi-state great-power competitions. Great Britain’s approach to Imperial Russia and Imperial Germany in the early 20th century is especially instructive. Like London in 1905, Washington today must stay attentive to the balance of power between itself and China as it manages Moscow’s relative power decline from the military debacle in Ukraine. The United States should defend its interests in Eastern Europe without so undermining Russia that a new period of instability spreads across Eurasia or that China aggrandizes strategically significant relative power gains from Moscow’s infirmity.
Topic:: Power Politics, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

89. Dancing in the Battle for the Mantle of the Politically “Modern”: An Interview with Victoria Philips

Author:: Victoria Philips and Daniel R. Quiroga-Villamarín
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: “It is that we continue to live as if this were the 20th century, even though we have formally moved to the 21st century,” lamented the former Bolshoi prima Ballerina Olga Smirnova as she announced her decision to defect to the Netherlands. I had just finished reading Victoria Philips’s monograph Martha Graham’s Cold War: The Dance of American Diplomacy (Oxford University Press, 2020) when I read Smirnova’s statement. In her innovative monograph, Philips places Smirnova’s decision in a longer history of moments where “[c]ulture met political aims, as private met public needs, and apolitical ideology served politics” (p. 2). Smirnova’s statement rests on the fact that her cri de paix situates itself above the political quagmire, in the higher realm of the arts—for the artist, as Philips notes, derives “deep political import” from her “claim to be apolitical” (p. 223). Philips provides us in this recent book with an innovative and relevant example of this “politics of antipolitics”: the life and works of Martha Graham. Through a carefully knitted narrative that spans decades of touring, Philips provides us with a detailed account of the role that the “Highest Priestess of Modern Dance in America” played during the Cold War. Drawing from archival sources all around the world, Philips captures the paradoxes, tensions, and contradictions that surrounded Graham’s involvement in a series of dance tours around the world in which she served as an emissary of Unitedstatesean soft power, in the midst of a international struggle for the mantle of political modernity. Indeed, just like Smirnova, Graham’s project was deeply anchored in a modernist understanding of time. But as Philips shows, the promise of modernity was full of ambiguities and ambivalence. Graham’s modernist dance was, at the same time, sacral and secular. It embraced womanhood but shunned organized female emancipation, or feminism. More dramatically, it elevated individualism but depended on the support of the state. Aesthetically, it claimed to represent abstract universal experiences but also purported to capture the particularity of Unitedstatesean (and even non-Western) cultural forms. As we saw above, it was politically antipolitical—and the list goes on. In our days, as Smirnova reminds us, the battle over the plural meanings of the “modern” is far from over. Perhaps, in that sense, we are all still living as if this were the 20th century. In our conversation, we explore what Professor Phillip’s book reveals about the ghosts of the Cold War and their claims to modernity that still haunt our political and aesthetical imaginaries.
Topic:: Cold War, Politics, History, Culture, Interview, and Dance
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

90. Reconfiguring NATO: The Case for Burden Shifting

Author:: Rajan Menon
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: This explainer begins by recounting how an American-led NATO, a key element in U.S. global primacy, lived on despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, the threat it was meant to deter—and, if necessary, defeat. The next section highlights the implicit bargain that has sustained NATO: U.S. preponderance in Europe, achieved by the American willingness to serve as the continent’s indispensable protector, in exchange for Europeans’ freedom to spend more on butter and less on guns. Next comes a set of proposals to move NATO from burden sharing, a perennial point of contention within the pact, to a more far-reaching change, burden shifting, an idea that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made even more feasible and prudent. The explainer concludes by assaying the prospects for burden shifting and challenging prominent counterarguments.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

91. Don’t Fear Vacuums: It’s Safe To Go Home

Author:: Benjamin H. Friedman
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: “We will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia, or Iran,” President Biden said this July in defense of his administration’s continued commitment to the Middle East.1 His comments reflect a widely held misconception: that a U.S. military exit from the Middle East would empower U.S. adversaries, and thus somehow make Americans less secure.2 U.S. leaders and pundits have expressed similar fears about the danger of creating vacuums by leaving Syria, Afghanistan (before U.S. exit of course), and even Africa, where only smatterings of U.S. troops are stationed.3 Vacuum fears also fuel more general warnings against surrendering influence in the developing world. Chinese investments via its Belt and Road Initiative—a massive set of infrastructure-development loans—for example, are said to exploit a vacuum the United States should compete to fill. Chinese trade in South America, or Russian port calls there, are said to reflect a failure to exert U.S. influence.4 The burgeoning idea behind these claims is that “great power competition,” which once seemed a useful rationale for exiting conflicts and lingering endeavors of the global war on terror, demands winning an open-ended, ill-defined contest for influence with Russia and China in the greater Middle East and developing world, or what is now sometimes called the global south.5 Vacuums that could be said to follow a U.S. exit—not the terrorists or insurgents U.S. forces were deployed to fight—are the new justification for staying.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and United States of America

92. REVISITING THE EMBOLDENING POWER OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Author:: Kyungwon Suh
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Do nuclear weapons make their possessors more aggressive? A series of high-profile aggressive actions by some nuclear-armed states appear to substantiate the argument that nuclear weapons enable aggressive behavior. Since its all-out invasion of Ukraine in February, Russia has continued to conduct brutal, coercive operations, including missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and population centers. North Korea has continued to test launch a wide array of missiles, one of which recently landed close to South Korea’s territorial waters. Policymakers also echo the view that nuclear weapons are more than simply defensive weapons. The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review argues that Russian leaders have exploited their nuclear arsenal as a “shield” behind which they launched military aggression against Ukraine. When he was CIA Director, Formal Secretary of State Mike Pompeo argued that Pyongyang could use nuclear weapons “beyond self-preservation.”
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Russia-Ukraine War, and Mike Pompeo
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

93. CAN DEBT RELIEF CONSTRAIN REPRESSIVE GOVERNMENTS?

Author:: Brett L. Carter
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: The African continent is confronting the prospect of a new debt crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on government finances. The Russian government’s war against Ukraine has increased the cost of food and energy, and compelled investors to sell off government bonds in emerging markets. Rising interest rates in the United States will increase the cost of borrowing. The Chinese economy is struggling under the weight of Xi Jinping’s “Zero COVID” policy and accumulated real estate debt. In 2015, the International Monetary Fund announced that eight countries were in debt distress. By March 2022, 23 were. In June, public debt ratios reached a 20-year high. Africa’s debt-distressed governments “are unlikely to default” in 2022,” The Economist observed, “but face trouble by 2024.” There is some evidence that the debt crisis is especially acute for Africa’s non-democracies. The impending debt crisis coincides with a general sense that Africa is experiencing a democratic recession. Voters are increasingly subject to intimidation and violence. Incumbent presidents are removing term limits. The longstanding norm against military coups is fading.
Topic:: Cold War, Debt, World Bank, GDP, Repression, and IMF
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Ukraine, Asia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and United States of America

94. WHO ATTACKED MONTENEGRO? THE MORAL AND STRATEGIC HAZARDS OF MISASSIGNING BLAME

Author:: Erica Lonergan and Maggie Smith
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: A few weeks ago, Montenegro—a NATO member—was hit with a cyber attack that targeted government servers. Montenegro’s outgoing Prime Minister, Dritan Abazovic, initially hedged about potential responsibility for the attack, stating on August 26: “We do not have clear information about the organizers… Security sector authorities couldn’t confirm that there is an individual, a group, a state behind [the attack].” Nevertheless, later that same day officials from Montenegro’s national intelligence agency attributed the attack to Russia. They also implied that the attack was related to Montenegro’s support for Ukraine and push for membership in the European Union. Yet, the extent of Russian involvement in the cyber attack remains ambiguous, which poses significant political and strategic challenges.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, Montenegro, and United States of America

95. FIVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE ASSASSINATION OF AYMAN AL-ZAWAHIRI

Author:: Rebecca Best, Debra Leiter, and Simanti Lahiri
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Last weekend, a US drone dropped two Hellfire missiles, killing Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri on his balcony in the heart of Kabul. It was the first targeted killing of an Al Qaeda leader since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Here, contributors Rebecca Best, Debra Leiter, and Simanti Lahiri answer questions about what the strike might mean for Al Qaeda, US-Afghanistan relations, and more.
Topic:: Al Qaeda, Drones, Assassination, and Ayman al-Zawahiri
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

96. WILL NANCY PELOSI’S VISIT TO TAIWAN TRIGGER A CRISIS?

Author:: James Lee and Jackie Wong
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: The controversy surrounding Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) potential visit to Taiwan centers on what it implies about United States’ relations with Taiwan. When the United States normalized relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1979, it said it would continue relations with Taiwan on an unofficial basis. The Normalization Communique said that “the people of the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan.” Beijing has interpreted this statement as a commitment, and it has warned Washington that closer government-to-government interactions with Taipei would violate that commitment and have dire, though unspecified, consequences. But there’s no formula for determining what “unofficial” means. The canonical statements of the United States’ One-China policy—the Shanghai Communiqué, the Normalization Communiqué, the Arms Sales Communiqué, the Taiwan Relations Act, and the Six Assurances—are written at a high level of abstraction. There is no communiqué in which the United States said that the Speaker of the House would never visit Taiwan; those kinds of details are left to diplomatic protocols (such as the “contact guidelines”) that the United States has defined on its own. It is an act of interpretation—an art rather than a science—and the question now is whether a visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan would be outside the bounds of a reasonable interpretation of “unofficial” relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Nancy Pelosi
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

97. MANAGING CONFLICT BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL RIVALS

Author:: Elizabeth Radziszewski and Jeremy Berkowitz
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Sweden’s and Finland’s recent decisions to join NATO marked a historic moment for the two Nordic states known for their neutrality. The move not only reflects evolving security concerns about Russia’s aggression in Ukraine but marks a shift that is set to end decades of accommodation toward Russia. It also sheds light on a broader question about why some rival countries—or those that have a history of tensions—sustain policies of accommodation over the years, and what pushes them to abandon such policies. Why would Sweden and Finland refrain from alienating Russia for years only to break suddenly with this tradition with their unprecedented decision to apply for NATO membership?
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Military, and Conflict Management
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Finland, Asia, Spain, North Africa, Sweden, Morocco, and United States of America

98. Hurricane Ian Highlights the Devastating Effects of the U.S. Blockade on Cuba

Author:: Mikael Wolfe
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: As Cuba reels from the ongoing effects of Hurricane Ian, a Havana-based Cuban scholar explains how the U.S. blockade has hampered Cuba’s recovery from Hurricane Ian and fuels ongoing mass emigration.
Topic:: Migration, Natural Disasters, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Hurricane, and Blockade
Political Geography:: Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America

99. El Salvador’s Slide Toward Authoritarianism

Author:: Jonathan Ng
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Three decades of U.S. intervention and opposition policies have helped Nayib Bukele monopolize power.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Latin America, Central America, El Salvador, and United States of America

100. What the Quad Is, Is Not, and Should Not Be

Author:: Daniel Depetris
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Since its establishment in 2007, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD or Quad) has transformed into a multilateral forum to enhance military coordination in the Indo-Pacific among the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia and to address issues of mutual concern—particularly the rise of China. The U.S. has pushed for this transformation. Quad members speak of the group as a forum for issues in the Indo-Pacific ranging from COVID-19 and climate change to emerging technologies. But China, Asia’s biggest power, is integral to addressing each issue. In early 2021, the group’s leaders signed a joint statement reiterating the importance of a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific—a reference to what all four members regard as China’s illegitimate claims in the South and East China Seas. Indo-Pacific Quad members also have disputes with China: India over its shared border with China; Japan over China’s sovereignty claims over the Senkaku islands; and Australia over worsening ties, including onerous trade restrictions and tariffs.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, COVID-19, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, Australia, and United States of America

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