1. The Impact of a 'No-Deal' Brexit on travel and Tourism
- Author:
- Simon Kyte, David Goodger, and Helen McDermott
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- A “no-deal” Brexit would cause a 5% drop in UK outbound travel and tourism trips in 2020, because of the stifled economic backdrop and impact of a weaker pound. Ireland and Spain would be the hardest hit from fewer UK visitors. In contrast, the weaker pound could mean that UK tourism inflows are 4% higher in a “no-deal” scenario, provided there is no travel disruption. But lower levels of domestic tourism mean that we would expect UK travel and tourism GDP to be 2% lower than our baseline forecast in 2020.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Tourism, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe