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Begin New Search Topic Elections Political Geography North America Content Type Commentary and Analysis

1. The Perfect Storm: Trump and USA 2024

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Donald Trump casts a long shadow over the upcoming presidential – and congressional – elections in the United States. It is a menacing shadow, not only for what the former president could do if he returned to office but also because the political and institutional balances of the United States are threatened by the repercussions of his many legal troubles, the latest of which could even see him excluded from the race for the White House.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2. The INE Debate and the Formation of the Neoliberal Democracy in Mexico

Author:
Luiz Alberto Gómez de Souza
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Although Mexico’s electoral institute was originally born out of struggles for democracy, it has since become a guardian of the neoliberal Mexican state.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

3. The Future of U.S.-North Korea Relations After the 2022 U.S. Midterm Elections

Author:
Jungkun Seo
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Jungkun Seo, Professor at Kyung Hee University, claims that with the results of the midterm elections in favor of Biden and the Democrats, Biden could likely run for re-election. Added to this, he expects that there will be no innovative strategy to tackle North Korea as Biden would have no choice but to take a hardline stance ahead of the 2024 election if North Korea's provocations make a prominent security threat to the United States. Professor Seo emphasizes that it will be extremely difficult for the U.S. to find a new breakthrough to the stalled peace process on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Elections
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

4. The United States at a Crossroads: The Biden Administration, Human Rights and Atrocity Prevention

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
After four dark years during which President Donald Trump systematically weakened the United States’ commitment to multilateralism, international law and universal human rights, the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect congratulates President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris on their impending inauguration. As an international civil society organization with its headquarters in New York, we join human rights defenders both here and abroad who view this historic moment with relief and hope. President Biden and Vice President Harris will be sworn in at a time of unprecedented crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused tremendous suffering around the world and killed over 380,000 Americans. Globally, more than 80.3 million people are also currently displaced by conflict, persecution and atrocities, the highest number since the Second World War. In all too many countries the laws, institutions and individuals who defend human rights appear to be under threat. This includes the United States, where disturbing political developments over the last four years led to the proliferation of online hate speech, the criminalization of asylum seekers and a prejudicial “Muslim Ban” aimed at refugees.
Topic:
Human Rights, Elections, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocities, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5. The Post-Rouhani Era: The future of US-Iranian relations under Raisi

Author:
Hussam Ibrahim
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
After the announcement of the victory of Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's hard-line judiciary chief, various analysts raised questions about the future of US-Iranian relations, particularly in light of major determinants. The most prominent of which is Ebrahim Raisi himself, who is subject to US sanctions, and his term, which may coincide with reaching a new nuclear agreement between Washington and Tehran, as well as the current debate in Washington’s political circles regarding the situation in Iran.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Hassan Rouhani
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

6. US foreign policy in the Balkans: new chapter

Author:
Vuk Vuksanovic
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
What challenges the new American administration will face in the Balkans, and how should it approach them? Read in the latest analysis of BCSP researcher Vuk Vuksanović. When Joseph Biden defeated Donald Trump in the 2020 US presidential elections, the Balkan countries were not neutral on that race. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić made a failed bet on Trump, hoping that under Trump, he will get a less painful settlement of the Kosovo dispute and an opportunity to finally make Belgrade a partner of Washington, after several decades. Vučić still congratulated Biden for his win alongside several other Balkan leaders who were probably happier about Biden’s win than him. US foreign policy towards the Balkans under Trump has been marked by transactional logic and disdain towards the European Union, best symbolised in the economic normalisation agreement between Belgrade and Priština brokered in September 2020 by Trump. Many policy hands, including Nicholas Burns, former US diplomat and one of Biden’s advisors, now expect that Biden will display US leadership in the region while cooperating closely with the European Union. The US foreign policy will have to deal with three sets of challenges: the unresolved Kosovo dispute, democratic backsliding in the region, and the presence of non-Western powers like Russia and China. While US power is a necessary element in resolving these challenges, the Biden administration will not be able to offer quick fixes.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, North America, and United States of America

7. Disappointed in Rouhani, Iranians Seek a Different Sort of Leader in June Elections

Author:
Brendan Helm, Dina Smeltz, and Amir Farmanesh
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
New indirect talks between the United States and Iran on a return to the Iran deal could help the outlook for a moderate candidate in the next election. Iranian presidential elections are set for June 18. The current president, Hassan Rouhani, who earned initial praise in Iran after successful negotiations for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, is ineligible for reelection and has steadily lost public support after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018. A joint survey of the Iranian public conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and IranPoll provides insights into how Iranians view this pivotal moment for Iran. Iranians view Rouhani’s policies quite negatively, especially his economic policies, and for their next leader they want someone who is critical of Rouhani. However, while Iranians did not feel the economic improvements from the JCPOA they expected, new indirect talks between the United States and Iran on a return to the agreement could help the outlook for a moderate candidate.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

8. Turks and Caicos Islands House of Assembly Elections: Technical Observation and Assessment Report

Author:
Anthony Banbury
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
The Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) held elections for the House of Assembly on February 19, 2021. At the invitation of the TCI governor and funded by the UK government, an independent team of elections experts from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) conducted an in-person technical observation and assessment. The IFES mission employed a modified version of IFES’ Technical Election Assessment Methodology, which allows for a broader assessment of the electoral process and context.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Voting, Election Observation, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Caribbean, North America, and Turks and Caicos Islands

9. Panel on Presidential Candidates on Latin America

Author:
Max Paul Friedman
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
Abstract:
Columbia University ILAS panel on Democratic presidential candidates and Latin America. Among leading Democratic candidates some basics are widely shared. They agree that military force should be a last resort and that long-term occupations are damaging. They promise to reinvest in diplomacy and rehabilitate the US image abroad, as well as trying to achieve US policy goals, by rebuilding alliances and recommitting to multilateralism on climate change, on nuclear arms control. They want to use foreign aid and international institutions to improve human security, address the root causes of migration, and seek diplomatic solutions to conflicts. There is a rough division between the mainstream, Obama-style approach represented by Joe Biden and the mayor from South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttegieg, who both believe that US alliances and international institutions are force multipliers for the United States. Together, the so-called moderate candidates have about 40% of the Democratic voter support in surveys. The progressive wing is represented by Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who want to reduce US military activity abroad and also reform the global economic order in order to reduce inequality, conflict, and environmental damage. Together, Sanders and Warren have about 40% of the Democratic vote as well.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

10. ‘It Could Happen Here’: The US Election and the Threat of Violence

Author:
Simon Adams
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
In June this year, for the first time in our history, the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect published an “Atrocity Alert” for the United States. That alert was issued just nine days after an unarmed Black man, George Floyd, was choked to death by police in Minneapolis. Floyd’s death led to massive protests in more than 100 US cities and towns, and some rioting. As we wrote at the time: “While the murder of George Floyd in police custody does not constitute a mass atrocity crime, it has exposed deep divisions in US society. All law enforcement officials involved in the extrajudicial killing of civilians should be held legally accountable and punished to the full extent of the law. Crowd control measures deployed against peaceful protests must be consistent with international standards. The security forces must also strictly comply with the principles of necessity, proportionality, legality and precaution to help prevent any further deaths or serious injuries.” Now the United States faces an even greater challenge. The election on 3 November is expected to be one of the most divisive and dangerous in US history. Since March the United States has not only endured the largest COVID-19 death toll in the world, but also crushing unemployment levels and a disturbingly fractured political discourse. While the structural problems in US society – such as its history of racial violence and overly-militarized policing – pre-date the presidency of Donald Trump, he has exacerbated them. Trump’s attempt to cast doubt over the legitimacy of the impending election, combined with his unwillingness to commit to a peaceful transfer of power, poses a threat to American democracy. Many Americans believe that existential issues of race, identity and civil rights are also on the ballot.
Topic:
Race, Social Movement, Elections, Protests, Justice, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America