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Begin New Search Topic Domestic Politics Political Geography Middle East Content Type Commentary and Analysis Publication Year within 10 Years Publication Year within 5 Years

1. Domestic Disagreements Limit Netanyahu’s Options with Washington

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the Hamas-Israel war enters a new phase, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is finding it increasingly difficult to balance relationships inside his government and with the White House. On the military front, Israel has taken most of northern Gaza, though an estimated 5,000-6,000 Hamas fighters remain active in various tunnel networks. Major combat operations have largely shifted to central and southern Gaza, while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have released most of the 360,000 reservists mobilized at the beginning of the war and withdrawn some forces for retraining. Yet the situation is murkier on the diplomatic and political fronts. Earlier today, Netanyahu and President Biden spoke with each other for the first time in almost four weeks, and the prime minister is fundamentally at odds with Benny Gantz’s centrist National Unity party. When Gantz joined the government shortly after the October 7 attacks, he helped dilute the influence of the far-right parties led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir while focusing the cabinet on the mutual goal of driving Hamas from power in Gaza. Yet their policy differences have become more salient since then, and Netanyahu seems convinced that Gantz—who is riding high in the polls—will soon leave the government to capitalize on the prime minister’s wartime unpopularity in potential early elections. This has made Netanyahu more dependent on his far-right ministers, much to the consternation of the White House.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Domestic Politics, Conflict, and Benjamin Netanyahu
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2. Devastating Earthquakes in Turkey Could Fundamentally Alter the Political Landscape

Author:
James Ryan
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
Twin earthquakes of 7.4 and 7.8 magnitude devastated southeastern Turkey and northern Syria on February 6. Over 22,000 people are known to have died, and tens of thousands more remain wounded and displaced. Lax construction standards in a rapidly urbanizing region contributed to the high death toll, raising questions about Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party’s aggressive approach to construction and development. Opposition figures have made pointed accusations that state aid has been doled out on a partisan basis, raising the stakes of scheduled general elections on May 14.
Topic:
Development, Natural Disasters, Elections, Domestic Politics, Earthquake, and Construction
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

3. The Shah’s Son and the Future of Iranian Opposition

Author:
Lior Sternfeld
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
For the Iranian opposition movement to be viable, it has to offer a clear vision for Iran that can unite most Iranians. Those opposed to the Islamic Republic of Iran must keep in mind the people in Iran, including those who have not yet shown any support for the opposition, and let them know what their future would look like if the opposition prevails. Any movement that would try to rely on sentiments favoring the Iranian monarchy is doomed to fail. The Iranian people will not get behind replacing one autocratic leader for another. This is one of the reasons for despair among many Iranians of the middle generation. The Iranian opposition’s vision for the country should include the role of those who are now employed or involved in the state apparatus.
Topic:
History, Domestic Politics, and Opposition
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

4. Lebanon’s Perennial Limbo: A Paralysed System Teetering on the Brink

Author:
Giulia Gozzini
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of a catastrophic and seemingly endless downward spiral that began in 2019, a paralysing political stalemate has once again gripped Lebanon. Close to three months have passed since the Lebanese were called to the polls on 15 May, the first parliamentary elections held since the October 2019 revolution (thawra) and the 2020 Beirut blast. Yet, nothing seems to have changed. While the results did not bring about a significant political breakthrough, they did break the monopoly of traditional parties, with the election of 13 independent candidates associated with the popular protests of 2019.[1] This is a noticeable occurrence given that it was produced by a system which is tailor-made for the political élite to maintain the status quo. That said, the vote can hardly qualify as a victory of the so-called “forces of change”. Likewise, it would be unwise to claim – as many in the media did in the aftermath of the vote – that the results represent a defeat for the Shia Islamist party, Hezbollah.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

5. The 2022 Israeli Legislative Election and Political Violence in the West Bank

Author:
Ameneh Mehvar and Matan Ayash
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 1 November, Israelis will go to the polls for the fifth time in three-and-a-half years. This latest round of elections follows the dissolution of a historically broad coalition — headed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid — that consisted of right-wing, centrist, left-leaning parties, in addition to the first Arab party to serve in a ruling coalition in Israel’s history. The so-called change coalition was Israel’s first government without Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister since 2009. The formation of an ideologically diverse coalition was borne out of the feeling of necessity to prevent Netanyahu from continuing his tenure. Netanyahu, who is currently on trial for alleged bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, has become the primary fault line in an Israeli political environment that has been deadlocked since 2019. While the majority of seats in the Knesset are held by right-wing parties, reflecting an increasing number of Jewish Israelis who self-identify as right-wing (IDI, 30 August 2022), the rift among the political right over Netanyahu has prevented the formation of a right-wing government, creating two competing blocs that have shaped Israeli politics since 2019.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

6. Arab, Iranian, and Turkish Responses to President Trump’s Impeachment

Author:
Washington Institute Staff
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A survey of how regional media outlets discussed the congressional impeachment process and its potential ramifications on the 2020 presidential election. Across the Middle East, the story of President Trump’s impeachment and subsequent acquittal received secondtier coverage compared to regional or local issues. Many Arabic-language websites and newspapers translated and republished Western articles as opposed to creating their own content on the issue, such as Al Jazeera publishing a translated version of a Guardian editorial. Moreover, the bulk of the articles just explained the facts or process of impeachment rather than expounding on its significance. Some celebrated the idea that there is a mechanism for peaceful removal of a leader. Most commented on the unlikelihood of Trump’s removal and how America is facing unprecedented polarization. Those articles that did offer their own editorial content were split on whether impeachment will help or hurt Trump’s election campaign. Publications in the Gulf states tended to portray impeachment as an act of “political vengeance” by Democrats against Trump, “who won despite their opposition” (Sky News Arabia). Most Gulf papers posited that Trump will ultimately benefit in the 2020 election “after proving his innocence before the Senate” (Al Seyassah). Yet Qatari coverage deviated from the general Gulf trend. For example, one Al Jazeera article asserted that the impeachment case against Trump “is simple, and established not only by officials speaking under oath, but by his own words and actions.” Egyptian newspapers were more split on how impeachment will affect the election. Anti-American outlets in Syria suggested it will hurt him, with Al Baath noting “all data indicate that Trump’s hope for a return to the White House have faded.” Lebanese publications tended to take a more neutral view. The Hezbollah-controlled newspaper Al Akhbar wrote that the prospect of impeachment weakening Trump’s electoral campaign “is similar to that of his potential main rival,” arguing that Joe Biden was also tainted by the process. Most Iranian media tended to copy Western sources, but two themes prevailed among outlets offering original content: portrayal of impeachment as a scandal that has tainted Trump’s presidential legacy, or neutral analysis of how impeachment may or may not harm his reelection chances. A few analytical pieces suggested that he might be able to transform the scandal into an asset for his campaign, since it may “lead to more popularity among the middle class.” While most Iranian articles leaned against Trump, few appeared to praise Democrats. Turkish articles generally depicted impeachment as a “gift” to Trump’s campaign. SETA, a think tank that supports President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, claimed that what “hasn’t killed Trump will make him stronger.” Sabah News, another pro-Erdogan source, wrote that impeachment will “unite Republican senators and members of the House of Representatives around him.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Media, News Analysis, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Arab Countries, North America, and United States of America

7. The Unmaking of Lebanon's Sectarian Order? The October Uprising and its Drivers

Author:
Tamirace Fakhoury
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Last month, an unprecedented protest movement took hold of Lebanon’s streets and public squares. Dubbed as the October uprising, the timing of the movement roughly coincided with important anniversaries, such as the fall of the Berlin Wall or other iconic historical events, including the October Revolution in Russia, leading many to draw comparisons. In the context of the 2011 Arab spring wave, many argued that Lebanon would stay isolated from the protest movements that gripped the region even though the country has witnessed previous protest cycles, such as the socalled 2005 Cedar Uprising. Still, eight years after the Arab protest wave, an unprecedented protest movement has materialised, spreading to various Lebanese cities from Tripoli to Sidon. In the wake of a proposed WhatsApp tax, people have been calling for the sacking of political leaders and the eradication of political sectarianism. Arguably, the protest movement may trace its roots back to a precursor wave of protests over a huge garbage crisis in 2015. Back then, the movement also decried the inept politics of sectarianism and corruption.
Topic:
Politics, Sectarianism, Domestic Politics, Protests, and Political Movements
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon