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2. For Hemispheric Unity, a Change in U.S. Foreign Policy is Needed
- Author:
- Brett J. Kyle and Andrew G. Reiter
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the face of a new war in Europe, shoring up support in Latin America will not be as easy as the Biden administration thinks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and War
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Latin America, and United States of America
3. Building an Energy and Climate Coalition with Latin America and the Caribbean: An Agenda for the Biden Administration
- Author:
- Mauricio Cardenas and Laurie Fitzmaurice
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The initial months of the Biden administration’s foreign policy have underscored the importance of defining the type of relations with China (cooperative in some areas, adversarial in others) and revamping relations with Europe on areas of common interest. However, the United States should look closer to home, where it can find some major opportunities for international policy advancement. The Biden administration has a window of opportunity to rethink its relations with and policy toward Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In particular, there are very good reasons—political and economic—for putting the energy and climate change agenda at the center of the hemispheric partnership. On the political front, building a hemispheric bloc will increase the influence of its members in global negotiations. On the economic front, the countries in the region offer significant opportunities for trade and investment for the United States. Canada, which earlier in the year pledged to work with the United States on addressing climate change,[1] could also have an interest in promoting and potentially participating in this initiative. Prior to the arrival of the pandemic, the economies of LAC had already been confronting a complex series of economic growth challenges after the end of the commodities supercycle. Many countries in the region faced high levels of public indebtedness, currency depreciation, credit rating risk, insufficient tax revenue bases, and low investment rates.[2] The appearance of the COVID-19 crisis only served to exacerbate these conditions. The LAC region contains 8.4 percent of the world’s population but represents 30 percent of COVID-19 fatalities to date.[3] Forecasts now predict that per capita GDP will remain below the 2019 level at least until 2023.[4] The continuing surge of undocumented immigration into the southern border of the United States, the social and economic impacts of COVID-19, and the growing influence of China in the region could increase political pressure on the United States to develop a coherent policy toward LAC. These urgent and competing dynamics represent an opportunity for the United States to recast its policy toward the region as one of engagement. The United States could utilize the tools of technology and financing focused on energy and climate to put the region on a path toward sustained economic growth and social progress. LAC needs technology and financing to build clean infrastructure, develop alternative energies, and reduce energy poverty.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Caribbean, North America, and United States of America
4. National Oil Companies and the Energy Transition: Ecopetrol's Acquisition of an Electric Transmission Company
- Author:
- Mauricio Cardenas and Luisa Palacios
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The energy transition strategies of international oil companies have come under increased scrutiny from investors and the media as countries across the globe grapple with targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[1] It is unclear if national oil companies (NOCs) are going to feel the same pressure given their government-majority ownership and, if so, how they will adjust their business models. This commentary explores recent moves by Colombian national oil company Ecopetrol to adapt to the energy transition, especially its bid to acquire a majority stake in Interconexión Eléctrica SA (ISA), an electricity transmission company, for 14.2 trillion Colombian pesos (equal to about $3.6 billion).[2] The proposed acquisition was met with mixed reactions, with some critics suggesting it was an opportunistic move on the part of the Colombian government (which has a majority interest in both companies) to book some revenues and reduce the ballooning fiscal deficit. But rather than analyzing its fiscal merits, this piece analyzes the potential transaction from the viewpoint of Ecopetrol and whether there are lessons from the deal for other NOCs navigating the energy transition. This commentary begins with a brief background on both companies and the potential benefits for Ecopetrol in pursuing a path that is different relative to what some other oil companies are doing in order to adjust their business models. Ecopetrol faces specific as well as regional challenges that make transition strategies used by the European oil companies less attractive. The piece then discusses how, if part of the goal of the acquisition is to accelerate Ecopetrol’s energy transition and to add shareholder value, a number of complementary actions should be taken to help with the governance aspect of this acquisition while at the same time strengthening Ecopetrol’s pledge to become net zero by 2050. For example, in arranging financing, Ecopetrol could explore issuing an environmental, social, and governance (ESG) bond where the proceeds are earmarked for the purchase of ISA, which is already a net-zero company. In addition, the coupon rate could be linked to specific emissions reductions on Ecopetrol’s oil and gas activities. Tying these targets to the coupon rate could be seen as a credible mechanism to ensure that the company will comply with its ambitious climate goals. In addition, we propose that Ecopetrol maintain ISA’s current governance structure unmodified and preserve its operational independence. This would allow ISA to benefit from its investment grade status (which Ecopetrol does not enjoy) and continue to deploy its capital expenditures (CapEx) plan geared toward investing in Latin America’s electricity sector without interference. To conclude, this transaction by itself does not guarantee a successful energy transition for Ecopetrol’s core business. If Ecopetrol’s goal is to diversify its portfolio of activities and reduce its carbon footprint, then it should ensure the sum of the two companies results in synergies that reduce emissions beyond what each one of them can achieve individually. This is not a guaranteed outcome but one that will depend on how ISA performs under Ecopetrol’s ownership, the extent to which this transaction brings new opportunities in the renewable energy space, and how the revenues derived from this acquisition help to finance the decarbonization of Ecopetrol.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Renewable Energy
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Latin America
5. Reflections On The U.S.–Mexico Relationship
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández served as Mexico’s Ambassador to the United States (2017-2018). He played a prominent role in the negotiation of the United States of America, Mexico and Canada Agreement (USMCA). Currently, he is managing partner of BEEL Infrastructure, a specialized advisory & asset management firm focused on the infrastructure sector in Latin America. He also provides strategic advice to businesses and governments on political risk, public affairs and communications and business development; and serves in the Board of Directors of U.S. – Mexico Business Association (AEM) and the Advisory Board of the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute. Brown Journal of World Affairs: During your time as ambassador, the U.S.– Mexico relationship was highly politicized due to President Trump’s rhetoric. How did you navigate balancing between building a relationship with the U.S. government and standing up for your country?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Immigration, NAFTA, and USMCA
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, and Mexico